Nimble w/Numbers

Trinkets and Baubles

December is here again. With the holiday season in full swing, my family is also celebrating my in-laws’ 40th anniversary and my nephew’s birthday early in the month. That’s also the precursor to the 29th, where my sister, daughter, close friend Vince (the one who first called me Big Time), and Matthew Berry celebrate their birthday. December is also a special month for football, with the NFL playoff race and college bowl season, but I’ll beg your pardon if I seem distant. I have a lot of things to juggle and stress about.

My daughter will be nine years old this year. She’s as sharp as they come and was gifted with an old soul, full of wisdom beyond her years. She also inherited my inability to pick up after myself in a timely manner. The kid is a tornado of crafting, drawings, video games, and stuffed animals. It took her and I two hours to clean her room last night. We folded clothes and had piles of stuff to throw away, donate to charity, and relocate. In the end, she still staunchly refused to throw away an old Amazon box with a blanket and a couple toys, where our cat Juney “occasionally sleeps when I kick her off the bed.” The cat never sleeps in that box, but tossing it was crossing the line.

Where am I going with this? Let’s just say that I might be too quick to throw things away, while Addison is reluctant to let anything go. I’ve seen too many episodes of Hoarders to think that this behavior is healthy, but maybe it’s better to compromise instead of picking this particular hill to die on. We will make another sweep through with a donation box before another double wave of gifts washes ashore at the end of the month. A couple years ago, her idea was just to “buy a bigger house.” It makes me chuckle (and shudder) to think back at the look of concern my wife and I shared with one another when she suggested that.

In fantasy football, and DFS, it’s a double-edged sword. If you cast away positive notions about a player too soon, you might miss out on future breakout performances. Should you hold onto fond memories of winning with someone, you might also be blinded to potential pitfalls that can cost you down the road. Many were hating on Joe Mixon after an injury-plagued 2020. He’s been in six perfect DFS lineups this season already. I keep trying to shoe-horn Laviska Shenault into lineups because he’s “too good and too cheap.” He hasn’t won me anything. I guess the message this week is, “keep an open mind.” Do I think Alexander Mattison, Myles Gaskin, and Foster Moreau are very good at football? Not exactly. They are still very likely to return value in DFS cash games on the Week 13 NFL main slate.

Week 13 is one of the biggest slates for value plays we’ve had this season. DK salaries are largely inclusive, meaning that there are so many good plays for cash because there aren’t many players too expensive to roster for their expected output. FanDuel is famous for this type of pricing, which I don’t tend to like. Whittling down your roster to the best players will be challenging. The volume-based EVO model should help you do that very thing.

Week 13 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

LAMAR JACKSON: @ PITTSBURGH ($7,800)

Lamar hasn’t looked like himself the last couple of weeks, culminating with his four interceptions in the last game. He still has a truly elite rushing floor and ceiling and faces a terrible Steelers secondary. Jackson also tends to play very well against the Steelers. I don’t expect Pittsburgh to have the scheme or personnel to confuse Lamar like the Browns did.

MATTHEW STAFFORD: VS JACKSONVILLE ($7,300)

Stafford has recoiled back into a Detroit-like shell the last few weeks. The Jags haven’t been terrible against opposing quarterbacks this season, but they really don’t match up well with this LA passing attack. A hobbled Darrell Henderson will also push the Rams to air it out with Kupp, Beckham (if healthy), Jefferson, and even Higbee.

TOM BRADY: @ ATLANTA ($7,200)

On a normal slate, this would be a nasty, chalky mess. With all the values on the board for Week 13, however, Brady stands to rebound after relinquishing all of his touchdowns to the running backs last week. Atlanta will get destroyed in this game, one way or the other. It’s doubtful that all of the touchdowns will miss Brady once again.

JALEN HURTS: @ NY JETS ($7,000)

Coming into this game, Hurts…hurts. He is dealing with a sore ankle, which might limit his rushing ability. On the other hand, I expect the running backs and receivers to have such a field day that Hurts will score a ton of fantasy points by dispersing the ball to his weapons.

KIRK COUSINS: @ DETROIT ($6,500)

Keeping with the theme of potent passing attacks matching up with horrible defenses, the Vikings will head to Ford Field to beat up on the Lions. Cousins won’t have the dynamic presence of Dalvin Cook to take pressure off of him, so there will be an uptick in passing volume to Jefferson and Thielen against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Mattison is Cook Ultra-Lite, but is very capable as a receiver out of the backfield to help Cousins further.

DEREK CARR: VS WASHINGTON ($6,000)

Washington’s schedule has really lightened up lately, which has made their defense look less like trash. The Raiders offense has been remarkably consistent this season, especially through the air. Carr has been a prolific passer, even if the touchdowns haven’t come through as well in the last couple of games. It’s safe to say Carr will pass for over 300 yards in this one, with a couple scores to boot.

TAYLOR HEINICKE: @ LAS VEGAS ($5,600)

Across the field from Carr is a less-consistent (but more athletic) option at quarterback that saves $400 in salary. Vegas’ secondary has been tough on bad teams and abysmal against good teams. Washington slots somewhere in the middle, especially with Logan Thomas back off the IR to alleviate coverage on Terry McLaurin.

TUA TAGOVAILOA: VS NY GIANTS ($5,500)***

The accuracy stats should surprise no one. Tua has been laser-precise all the way back to his freshman year at Alabama. Multiple teams tanked to be able to draft him. Now that he is more than a year removed from a catastrophic hip injury, he is dialed in. Miami has put some weaponry around him, namely Waddle and Gesicki. There is no way the Giants can slow down the Dolphins. Miami’s weakness is their offensive line, and the Giants have zero pass rush to exploit it.

TYROD TAYLOR: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($5,300)

Tyrod hasn’t been entirely consistent this season, especially after his stint on the IR with a bad hamstring. He is, however, underpriced this week against a Colts defense that is a wonderful pass funnel. Indy will be ahead early in this game, putting Tyrod squarely in garbage time hero territory for Sunday.

Running Backs

JONATHAN TAYLOR: @ HOUSTON ($9,200)

We all dreamed about this bell cow role for JT. Now that it is truly happening every week, he has become the belle of the ball for running back production. Indy will continue to bludgeon defenses with their great o-line and Taylor. After two “bad” matchups, where JT still feasted, an all-green date with the Texans is dilating my pupils.

AUSTIN EKELER: @ CINCINNATI ($8,300)

He may not be a “household name,” but Ekeler is up there with JT as one of the most consistently-dominant running backs in the game today. His health is part of that equation, but even the toughest matchups haven’t hampered his production in PPR formats. The previously touchdown-challenged Ekeler already has 14 this season.

JOE MIXON: VS LA CHARGERS ($8,100)

Once the most polarizing figures in all of fantasy sports, Mixon is now one of three elite running backs who has not been bitten by the ultra-venomous injury bug. Most of the knocks on Mixon after last season were surrounding how supposedly “injury prone” he is. The 2021 version is getting a bell cow workload without so much as a whimper. He now has a date with the league’s best run funnel defense.

ALEXANDER MATTISON: @ DETROIT ($7,600)***

I had thrown Mattison away after last season. It seemed like he shriveled whenever he was given the chance to shine when Dalvin Cook missed time. The Vikings give one running back nearly all the work, which renders Mattison useless until Cook goes down. This season, Mattison has been awesome when Dalvin Cook is out of action, averaging over 20 fantasy points per game as a starter. The Lions are one of the worst run defenses in NFL history. Mattison will feast, especially as a receiver out of the backfield.

LEONARD FOURNETTE: @ ATLANTA ($7,300)

Wouldn’t you know, Lenny was the ultimate leverage play last week. I watched all my Brady stacks turn my GPP lineups to ashes. I knew JT was a good leverage play, but Fournette was the slate breaker. It’s really hard to imagine him as leverage this week. As a cash play, he is a sure bet to dominate the Falcons. His new salary still made him close to being too expensive for his expected volume in this game.

ELIJAH MITCHELL*: @ SEATTLE ($6,000)

The rookie out of Louisiana is making waves as this year’s version of James Robinson. A waiver wire darling has now commandeered the bell cow role in the omnipotent 49ers rushing attack. The Seahawks have been a massive disappointment this season and will continue to be, when San Francisco lays waste to them in Week 13 behind a truly staggering performance from Mitchell.

JAMES CONNER: @ CHICAGO ($5,900)

Conner is on my GPP radar this week. The bye week blind spot will never be more obscure than on this slate. There are so many good plays to be had that Conner’s volume and receiving upside are easy to overlook. The return of Kyler Murray this week will ensure that Conner won’t need to fret over a loaded box.

MYLES GASKIN: VS NY GIANTS ($5,800)

It was odd to see Gaskin turn in a good game on an even-numbered week. He played terribly, as expected, but happened to also score twice. He is not a good football player at all, but the Dolphins offense is rolling through a Charmin-soft schedule these days. Gaskin will easily return good value yet again versus a putrid, pathetic excuse for a Giants defense.

ANTONIO GIBSON: @ LAS VEGAS ($5,700)

It’s truly a beautiful sight to see an uber-talented running back get so much work on Monday Night Football. We also get the residual benefit of the DK salaries getting released before his huge game, where his fantasy points-scavenging teammate also left with an injury. Gibson would be at $7k if he played last Sunday and Vegas won’t be able to slow him down.

JAMAAL WILLIAMS: VS MINNESOTA ($5,400)

Volume pays the bills and the Lions love to run the football and check down to their backs in the passing game. D’Andre Swift has very little reason to return to play this season, giving the artist formerly known as Jamaawful a clear path to become a darling of the fantasy playoffs. Williams will have a huge role in this game against a below-average Vikings run defense.

MILES SANDERS: @ NY JETS ($5,200)

The Eagles still hate Miles Sanders. They might not have a choice but to give him more carries this week, with Jalen Hurts nursing an ankle injury. Philly inexplicably gave fourth-string running back, Boston Scott more touches than Sanders last week in a loss. This team is a walking brain fart, but Sanders is the perfect weapon against a Jets team that gives up nearly 40 fantasy points per game to the running back position.

TEVIN COLEMAN: VS PHILADELPHIA ($4,500)

I was wrong last week. I incorrectly predicted that the Jets would give their most talented running back (Ty Johnson) the most touches. Instead, that honor was bestowed upon Coleman and even to journeyman practice squad player, Austin Walter (who?). It would be mind-numbing if they went back to Johnson, now that I’m hanging my hat on Coleman.

Wide Receivers

COOPER KUPP: VS JACKSONVILLE ($9,000)

Kupp is very easily the most consistent receiving threat on this slate, with Davante Adams on his bye week. The Jags have been average against wide receivers, but Kupp has been seeing abnormal volume this season and is well above average in the skill department. The Rams will need to lean even harder into the Kupp section of the playbook this week, with Henderson and Beckham limping around.

DEEBO SAMUEL: @ SEATTLE ($8,300)***

Kyle Shanahan didn’t need to, but he has successfully transitioned Deebo into a full-fledged running back; a really good one. As we mentioned with Mitchell above, the Seahawks are an utter failure this season, especially against “pass catching running backs.” The quotes are for describing whatever it is that Deebo Samuel has become. I want all the pieces of this 49ers offense, in what will be a huge rout.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON: @ DETROIT ($8,200)

The Dalvin Cook injury really does put the Vikings in a tough predicament on offense. They are fortunate to coordinate that injury to a date with the winless Lions. I do see more of an emphasis on the passing game coming for Minnesota, in order to exploit their huge advantage at receiver against this secondary. Both Jefferson and Thielen offer plenty of floor and upside the same.

ADAM THIELEN: @ DETROIT ($7,300)

I emphasized the huge price gap last week, which pointed me to play Thielen over Jefferson against the 49ers (woohoo!), but the gap is smaller this week. In cash, you don’t need to double dip on both guys, but this week will be more of a coin flip based on salary constraints when building your lineups. Thielen is a solid option yet again, especially with him being the favorite red zone option for Cousins.

DIONTAE JOHNSON: VS BALTIMORE ($6,800)

Boy, did the Steelers (Ben) look dreadful last week! This is not a good football team at all, but they are coached well enough to be competitive in most games. Pittsburgh leans into their best players, like Diontae, in these rugged divisional games. Johnson is a target monster and the Ravens have been suspect on the corners all season.

MIKE EVANS: @ ATLANTA ($6,700)

Much like with the Vikings receivers, you can very easily play either one of these guys in cash games this week. Evans and Godwin were extremely quiet last week, as neither one of them cracked double digit fantasy points against Indy. This is great in a way, reducing their salaries to comical levels against Atlanta.

CHRIS GODWIN: @ ATLANTA ($6,600)

Godwin was the receiver who got the ball punched out by Darius Leonard for a turnover in the open field. Chalk it up to an amazing play by a future hall of fame linebacker, but Tampa Bay was intent on winning on the ground last week. Atlanta is so bad at every level of the defense, that they will give it up through the air and on the ground Sunday. Godwin’s target share will hold strong yet again.

MARQUISE BROWN: @ PITTSBURGH ($6,500)

In a stunning development of a player’s role, Brown has already piled up 92 targets this season. Inexplicably, his DK salary also dropped $400 from last week. Pittsburgh is getting roasted by speedy receivers this season. It seems there might be a connection here.

JALEN WADDLE: VS NY GIANTS ($6,400)

These former Alabama receivers are truly special. All of them. I was cautiously optimistic coming into this season about Waddle. Miami misused him early in the season, but a healthy Tua has allowed the speedster to blossom as an NFL wide receiver over the last month. You might know by now that the Giants are a sorry excuse for a franchise and have no defense, so Waddle is a fun play with immense upside this week.

DEVONTA SMITH: @ NY JETS ($6,100)

I think the world of Smith. He is already a polished professional receiver, even if his quarterback doesn’t always deliver accurate, on-time passes to him consistently. The other Alabama rookie first round pick will have zero trouble getting open against the Jets.

HUNTER RENFROW: VS WASHINGTON ($5,800)

The target volume for Renfrow is as placid as an alpine lake on a windless afternoon. His salary has seen a steady rise all season as he continues to exceed expectations. The Cowboys and Football Team have similar struggles against slot receivers, with the former allowing Renfrow’s first 20-plus point performance of the season.

MICHAEL PITTMAN JR: @ HOUSTON ($5,700)

It was a 10 target game for Pittman last week, which came as no surprise to me after my prediction. The unfortunate part was that he only pulled in four of those targets for 53 yards. Houston is goin to have all of their eggs in the stop JT basket this week, freeing up the play action passes that make Pittman absolutely lethal.

BRANDON AIYUK: @ SEATTLE ($5,600)

I love that Aiyuk is cheaper than Kittle again this week. The 49ers never ask their wide receivers to eschew running routes to stay in for pass protection. Aiyuk’s sharp route running and elite athleticism will make him a nightmare down the field in Seattle. The Seahawks will be doing everything in their power to slow down the running game, leaving Aiyuk open to do damage.

VAN JEFFERSON: VS JACKSONVILLE ($5,300)

Jefferson is a true home run hitter this season. I don’t believe the Rams intend for him to assume that role, but with catching only 33% of his targets for 93 yards and a touchdown, we will take it. It would be even nicer if those nine targets were converted at a higher percentage against the Jags.

AJ GREEN: @ CHICAGO ($5,000)

The AJ Green disrespect must stop. We still don’t know if Hopkins will return to full strength at all in the near future, putting the 6’4″ future hall of famer Green in charge of the outside route running. I was ready to put Kirk on this list until I saw that the more-reliable Green was $600 less. He will give the Bears fits, whether Murray and/or Hopkins play or not.

RASHOD BATEMAN: @ PITTSBURGH ($4,900)

The ultra-talented rookie out of Minnesota has been very impressive so far this season. He has not yet eaten into the volume of Brown or Andrews, but his DK salary reflects that. The Steelers will have their hands full to try and slow down this passing offense. Yes, the Ravens passing offense.

Tight Ends

MARK ANDREWS: @ PITTSBURGH ($6,000)

He’s the MANdrews! The 2021 TE2 behind Kelce comes in with three-consecutive games over 15 DK points. Pittsburgh is 11th at defending the tight end position, but really haven’t been challenged by many elite ones this season. Baltimore has needed to be more pass-heavy than ever before in the Lamar Jackson era because of their troubles at the running back position. I dig that against a pass funnel like the Steelers.

GEORGE KITTLE: @ SEATTLE ($5,900)

Kittle barely made this list. He is nearly too expensive for the six targets I have him projected for. He is simply too valuable as a blocker, despite his prowess as a game-breaking receiver. If he was under $5.5k, I would be a lot more comfortable with him in cash games. For now, I see him as more of an upside GPP leverage play.

KYLE PITTS: VS TAMPA BAY ($5,600)

Pitts is my favorite rookie receiver this year, but he is similar to Kittle in that he barely made this list. Matt Ryan has been so risk-averse this season in targeting Pitts that it’s infuriating. Even when Ryan does target Pitts, the passes have been largely uncatchable. To make matters even worse, Arthur Smith refuses to draw plays up for the rookie in the red zone. Pitts has only one red zone target since Week 6. Even his six target projection can get him on the watch list, but the coaching and quarterback play for the Falcons has been nothing short of a dereliction of responsibility.

ROB GRONKOWSKI: @ ATLANTA ($5,300)

Gronk is definitely back. He was nearly the key ingredient this week at tight end, narrowly missing out because of Logan Thomas’ incredible value prop. If I have the salary to round out my builds with Gronk, I will not hesitate to lock him in. He was spectacular last week, even without scoring a touchdown. That’s exactly what I hope for in a cash game.

MIKE GESICKI: VS NY GIANTS ($5,100)

For the last time (this week), I will highlight just how abhorrent and embarrassing the New York Giants’ defense is this season. You might have surmised that I will be stacking the Dolphins heavily in GPP, as well as lacing all my cash lineups with Fins (don’t tell PETA). Gesicki is at a very attainable price with his steady volume and touchdown upside in this offense. The only downside is how democratic Tua has been with target dispersal to his various receivers.

LOGAN THOMAS: @ LAS VEGAS ($4,000)***

What was supposed to be a tempered return to action for Thomas turned into a 77% snap share, six target performance against the Seahawks on Monday night. He very nearly cashed in with a late touchdown that was overturned on replay. The Monday night blind spot is smiling upon us this week with a top-flight tight end coming in at $4k against the second-worst defense against the position. I will be over the field on Thomas in GPP as well.

FOSTER MOREAU: VS WASHINGTON ($2,700)

The reason I’ll be able to be over the field on Thomas this week is because the Raiders’ ringer at tight end is going to summon all the chalk at $2,700. Darren Waller’s knee injury thrusts Moreau into the spotlight of this tight end friendly Vegas scheme. His last game as a starter ended up as a 6/6/60/1 performance against the Eagles. Washington is a bit stouter against the tight end position than Philly, so I won’t be eating the chalk pill this week on Moreau. He’s a fine play in cash.

Totally Hooked

Addiction runs in my family. Self-discipline does not. The preferred crutch has been alcohol, for the most part. I have been able to steer clear from letting booze control my life the way it did with my grandfather and father for most of their adult lives. I’m a nail biter. I drink way too much coffee. I will gamble on just about anything. The list of my vices goes on like a laundry list, but to this point I have been fortunate to avoid the ones that can ruin my life.

Some things, like DFS, actually bring me incredible enjoyment. I’m hooked to the sweating and tilting and I cannot get enough. I’ve spent the past few years chasing the dragon that is taking down a big tournament. I’ve had some really big wins over the years, but haven’t actually finished first in any GPP since 2019. I play cash games to snowball my DFS bankroll. It’s a very effective way to get more of those high-volatility lottery tickets. I’ve outright won seven large-field 50/50 games since my last tournament win.

It’s straight painful to build a “cash lineup” that ends up scoring enough points to win the tournament you built different lineups for. You’re left with a nice $100 off your $50 entry, but left wanting for the thousands you missed out on. My 2021 season has been a complete 180 degrees from last year. In 2020, I profited in cash games in all-but-three main slates, from Week 1 through the Super Bowl. It has been a struggle this season, pulling in at 50 percent. The process is sound, but the players I’m rostering simply haven’t been playing to expectation or have been injured during the game.

My bankroll hasn’t been snowballing, my gambling is ice cold. Ever the stubborn go-getter, I still have hope. Hope and potential get people fired, but I’ll keep playing because I won’t fire myself. There is still a large skill element to DFS and I have helped a lot of you wonderful consumers of my work win some impressive sums of money. That’s all I need to keep this going. Individual results will ebb and flow for eternity. I write for the smiles and grind tape and data to fortify my process each week for all of our lineups.

Now that we’ve gotten down and dirty with honesty and stories of getting humbled, lets dive in on Week 11. Everything I’ve seen so far this week points to me using my “chalky” cash lineups in tournaments as well. The chalk is going to smash on the main slate. These might be plays designed for 50/50s and head-to-heads, but I’d be stunned if they didn’t cross over as simply “good plays” across all contest types.

Week 11 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

JOSH ALLEN: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($8,100)

The perfect passing funnel offense meets a worthy pass funnel defense in this AFC showdown. Buffalo doesn’t even pretend to establish the run, unless done so by their monolithic signal caller. Indy is much tougher up front than on the back end, so expect a ceiling game for Allen.

LAMAR JACKSON: @ CHICAGO ($8,000)

Jackson was bottled up last week, then battled an illness this week. He is still a dynamic playmaker with an unmatched rushing floor and ceiling. He also has a stud rookie receiver building up to a breakout performance against a putrid Chicago secondary.

PATRICK MAHOMES: VS DALLAS ($7,600)

We got a nice reminder last week that Mahomes is still elite. Granted, the Raiders thumbed their nose at the proven success of Cover-2 Shell against the Chiefs’ deep passing attack. They instead opted for Cover-3, which proved moronic with the athletic advantage on Kansas City’s side. Cover-3 is the preferred scheme for Dallas DC, Dan Quinn, but they have been wonderfully multiple this season. The Cowboys will have a hard time defending Mahomes in any case this week.

DAK PRESCOTT: @ KANSAS CITY ($7,200)***

I fully expect Kellen Moore and the Dallas offense to plan for this abhorrent Chiefs’ defense more successfully than the Raiders did. Even without Amari Cooper, Prescott will have a full stable of weaponry that will put at least 35 points on the board. Lock him in for 25 fantasy points on Sunday.

AARON RODGERS: @ MINNESOTA ($7,000)

Next to Dak, Rodgers is my favorite quarterback play for Week 11. He seems to always have big games in Minnesota, where the Vikings sport one of the league’s worst coverage units. It won’t just be Davante Adams, either. Rodgers will be dealing to a variety of receivers, leaving the Vikings with little recourse to slow them down.

RYAN TANNEHILL: VS HOUSTON ($6,700)

Interestingly, Tannehill’s efficiency as a passer has gone up since the Titans lost Derrick Henry to injury. They are running the ball just as frequently as before. Even with a no-name group of pass catchers around AJ Brown, Tannehill is still putting up good fantasy numbers. Houston won’t be the defense that stops that trend.

JOE BURROW: @ LAS VEGAS ($6,600)

In a GPP, the Bengals stack has been quite lucrative this season. For cash, we need to proceed with caution in games where Cincinnati is likely to use their advantage in the running game. This seems like a shootout type of game, so Burrow & Co will be chucking the ball early and often against a terrible Raiders’ secondary.

Running Backs

DALVIN COOK: VS GREEN BAY ($8,200)

Much like Aaron Rodgers feasts on the Vikings, so does Dalvin Cook to the Packers. His volume of work will again see an uptick after another week away from the injury report. One thing we haven’t seen a lot of this season is target volume, which should change to exploit a glaring weakness in the Green Bay coverage.

NICK CHUBB: VS DETROIT ($7,800)***

Praise be, Chubb has been activated from the COVID list just in time for his most favorable matchup of the season. Detroit has been gashed relentlessly by opposing running backs and Chubb is averaging six yards per carry on the campaign.

JOE MIXON: @ LAS VEGAS ($7,600)

The post-bye blind spot blesses the Bengals this week, although Mixon is not coming at an extreme value. This is probably because he exceeded 25 points in his last two games. The Raiders were initially pretty decent at defending running backs this year, but have since been ripped apart in negative game scripts. The Bengals will roll in this one, with Mixon carrying a heavy load.

JAMES CONNER: @ SEATTLE ($6,100)

Somehow, the NFL’s leader in touchdowns is cheaper than he was in a less-favorable matchup last week. The Seahawks are atrocious at defending running backs and Conner is playing like an absolute beast this year. Look for him to command the goal line opportunities, even if Kyler Murray returns from his ankle injury.

MYLES GASKIN*: @ NY JETS ($5,700)

The most consistently inconsistent player in the NFL is Gaskin. He has scored in double-digits in every single odd-numbered week in 2021. Week 11 brings the Jets, who have allowed 39.8 PPR points per game to opposing running backs. They also are the worst in the NFL at allowing receiving yards to running backs, which is the one area in which Gaskin hasn’t been terrible this season.

DAVID MONTGOMERY: VS BALTIMORE ($5,500)

Volume pays the bills in cash games. Monty returned from the IR to a full workload, casting aside any rumors that impressive rookie Khalil Herbert would eat into his role in the second half of the season. Baltimore is no longer the defensive stalwart of yesteryear. This is an absolutely scintillating value on the slate.

MARK INGRAM: @ PHILADELPHIA ($5,400)

As I was formatting this article, Alvin Kamara was officially ruled out for Sunday with his MCL sprain. With this news, Ingram slots in as a premium value for DFS running backs. The added bonus is that the Saints are heading to Philly to face a really bad run defense. I expect Ingram to get a lot of work and he is extremely likely to score a touchdown.

JEFF WILSON, JR: @ JACKSONVILLE ($5,100)

I am simply not convinced (nor are my Twitter PT friends) that Elijah Mitchell will play much, if at all on Sunday with a fractured finger. Even if Mitchell guts it out after surgery, he will be compromised. Wilson is a favorite of Kyle Shanahan’s and slots into a nice workload against a Jaguars team that should get blown off the field by the 49ers.

D’ONTA FOREMAN: VS HOUSTON ($4,900)

I wasn’t sold on Foreman until he went and changed his jersey number, put on red sleeves, and started rocking the tinted visor. He played like an alpha back last, albeit without putting forth a great fantasy performance. Peterson looks his age and McNichols is battling concussion protocol. This is another value running back that will be easy to fit into your DFS builds.

Wide Receivers

DAVANTE ADAMS: @ MINNESOTA ($8,400)

Adams is the most reliable, consistent target hog in the NFL. He will have a pre-Thanksgiving feast in Minnesota on Sunday. I am projecting over 15 targets for Davante this week, so do the math on what his production will end up at.

TYREEK HILL: VS DALLAS ($8,200)***

The NFL’s leader in targets the last four weeks is a guy whose name isn’t normally associated with volume. Cheetah has settled into a role with much more route diversity to combine with his all-world ability to make extraordinary plays in space. The Cowboys allow a lot of big plays down the field and will struggle to contain Hill, even if they shadow him with Trevon Diggs.

STEFON DIGGS: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($7,900)

It was a long time coming, but Diggs had his first mega performance last week against the Jets. New York attempted to cover the All-Pro with man-to-man, attacking Josh Allen unsuccessfully with a myriad of blitzes. Indy is much more conservative, but their corners are getting roasted every week. Diggs will be back at the top of the scoring again this week.

DEEBO SAMUEL: @ JACKSONVILLE ($7,800)

The only reason we aren’t talking about Jimmy Garoppolo’s poor play is because Deebo Samuel is making spectacular plays on a weekly basis. Jimmy is playing smart by peppering Samuel with a massive target share. Deebo is even playing a few snaps per game as a running back to put the ball in his hands even more. The Jags don’t have anyone who can slow this train down.

CEEDEE LAMB: @ KANSAS CITY ($7,600)

Lost in the hoopla of Lamb’s big game last week is a minor arm injury that he has dealt with all week. Now with Amari Cooper on the COVID list, all of the attention has gone to Michael Gallup. I’m still firmly in the CeeDee camp. He is Dak’s favorite receiver this year and will get fat on the Chiefs in this marquee game.

BRANDIN COOKS: @ TENNESSEE ($6,000)

It seems that Cooks is always finding himself in Hot Cash. This is a true post-bye blind spot. Most DFS players won’t be as heavily exposed to the Texans-Titans game as I will be. Tennessee has some of the worst corners in the league, masking them only through a potent ball control offense. Cooks will get a ton of targets from Tyrod Taylor, with potential for a big breakout.

JALEN WADDLE: @ NY JETS ($5,600)

I was a bit worried about including Waddle in Hot Cash after last week’s game. He went from the short yardage slot role to more of an appropriate downfield route tree against the Ravens. Albert Wilson was getting his usual work and Waddle only saw six targets. I am actually excited to see if that trend continues against the Jets, who are as bad as any team at defending deep passes. Waddle might be a slate-breaker.

ELIJAH MOORE: VS MIAMI ($4,900)

DraftKings is biased against rookies, which is fine and dandy to me. DFS players can clean house with the young bucks hitting their stride in the second half of the season. Moore has taken over as the alpha receiver in New York and now has Joe Flacco as quarterback. Flacco isn’t great, but knows how to find the open man. Moore is that open man on just about every play, according to Reception Perception.

RASHOD BATEMAN: @ CHICAGO ($4,500)

Are you noticing a theme with these more affordable wide receivers? Breakout rookies…everywhere! Marquise Brown hasn’t slowed down with the emergence of future alpha, Bateman. Brown is working through a thigh injury. The rise of Bateman has also made the Ravens offense more pass-forward than ever before in the Lamar Jackson era. These are exciting times, especially at this salary for Week 11.

NICO COLLINS: @ TENNESSEE ($3,300)

That’s right, four rookies to wrap up my Week 11 Hot Cash receivers. I’m ready to admit my wrongness on Collins very soon. He has been amazingly consistent in limited work this season. Now that Taylor has returned healthy, we will see the best that the Michigan product has for the remainder of his rookie year. A date with a putrid Titans’ secondary at $3.3k makes this even more tasty.

Tight Ends

TRAVIS KELCE: VS DALLAS ($7,100)

The Cowboys did a great job last week at clamping down on the amazing Kyle Pitts, but the Falcons don’t have a Tyreek Hill or a Patrick Mahomes. Kelce is also much more savvy at beating double teams at this stage of his career. Dallas still struggles to cover the tight end and slot positions where Kelce will be running his routes. He’s a safe-but-expensive play for Week 11.

GEORGE KITTLE: @ JACKSONVILLE ($6,300)***

With arguably the same projection as the gold-plated Kelce, I have Kittle as my favorite tight end for Week 11. The $800 discount is more than enough to favor Stone Cold Kittle in a very palatable date with the Jags. I’ll be playing him in all formats, salary permitting.

MIKE GESICKI: @ NY JETS ($5,200)

Don’t let last week’s donut distract you from the big picture: Gesicki is a target hog. He still garnered seven (horribly inaccurate) targets last week, which means you can play him with confidence in cash games, especially against terrible defenses like the goddamn Jets.

DALTON SCHULTZ: @ KANSAS CITY ($4,600)

I very nearly put the triple asterisks next to Schultz’s name, but Kittle was just too good to pass up. With Jarwin (and now Cooper) out, the Stanford product stands to see a nice bump in looks from Dak against a very bad defense. My hope is that Kansas City won’t think to shadow the tight end with Tyrann Mathieu, who has done a much better job than the horrendous Daniel Sorensen.

DAWSON KNOX: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($4,000)

I missed on Knox last week. The same went for Cole Beasley. I honestly thought the Jets would have played more zone, opening up passing lanes to the tight end and slot receiver. Instead, they went man and left Diggs wide open. The Colts are a heavy zone team and struggle to cover anyone. Knox will be back on the map this week.

CJ UZOMAH: @ LAS VEGAS ($3,500)

I hope you didn’t think I gave up on Uzomah. After two down weeks, followed by the bye, I am very high on him for GPP value with upside out the wazoo against the Raiders. Vegas ranks 30th against tight ends in the NFL, which is nice. I expect Hayward to cover Jamarr Chase, leaving lesser men in coverage for Higgins, Boyd, and Uzomah.

MYCOLE PRUITT: VS HOUSTON ($2,600)

It’s pretty funny that I always pigeon-holed Pruitt as a blocking tight end. Apparently, it was Arthur Smith that did that. Pruitt’s athletic profile is very impressive for a tight end and the more-targeted Geoff Swaim (shoutout NorCal) has been ruled out against the Texans on Sunday. If you’re pinching pennies, you could do a lot worse than Pruitt. He is as likely as any Titan to find the end zone.

Thank a Hero

I recently saw a graphic that made my eyes bulge. Since declaring independence in 1776, the United States of America has been involved in some sort of war for 229 of the 244 years (as of 2020). With war comes the need for servicemembers. Walking among us today are millions of men and women who voluntarily put their life in peril in the name of protecting the American way of life. Veterans, like my wife’s father (USMC-Vietnam) and two brothers (Army-Iraq x2 and USAF-Afghanistan) and my cousin Jill (USMC-Desert Storm), are heroes in my eyes. To all of the veterans stateside and abroad, I extend my deepest gratitude to you and your families.

We will have pseudo-heroes on the football field come Sunday, with NFL stadiums adorned with a smattering of camouflage and other forms of “Salute to Service” messaging. It’s an unfair comparison, but NFL players do put their bodies on the line for the sake of entertaining us. Football scratches a primal itch for a lot of us, delivering the gladiator blood sport action without a real threat of death. Then, there’s me (and you) on the couch, licking bean dip and wing sauce off our fingers before pounding another American lager. A little DFS action is all I need to get my rocks off on any given Sunday. From the moment that Scott Hanson’s gravelly timbre exclaims, “Seven hours of commercial-free football starts now,” I am entranced with star-spangled eyes. Thanks to those heroes, I am free to play this game I love with relative impunity.

Week 10 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

JOSH ALLEN: @ NY JETS ($7,900)

I think everyone is wondering what the hell happened last week against the Jaguars. Was it the magical Cover-2 shell scheme? Was the “the other Josh Allen” telepathically draining the Buffalo quarterback of his powers to score points? I haven’t the foggiest idea, but he gets to test these theories against the Jets’ abysmal defense. I’m confident it was just an aberration.

TOM BRADY: @ WASHINGTON ($7,600)

What happens when the GOAT gets to square off against a pathetic secondary? You get fireworks. Even with Antonio Brown out and Chris Godwin trending that way, Brady has done more with less better than anyone over his legendary career. Don’t hesitate to roster Tommy Terrific in all formats.

JUSTIN HERBERT: VS MINNESOTA ($7,300)***

The “Machine from Eugene,” as I have dubbed the second-year star from Oregon, has been spectacular in most of his games this season. A home date at SoFi with the putrid Vikings’ defense shouldn’t offer any resistance to this prolific Chargers’ passing attack. Look for Herbert to remedy the recent struggles of Mike Williams in the process of slicing this secondary to pieces.

DAK PRESCOTT: VS ATLANTA ($6,900)

Much like some of the other stud quarterbacks in Week 9, Dak struggled mightily in his first game off the calf injury. As with Josh Allen, I see it as a speed bump on the interstate. Atlanta is terrible on defense when compared to Denver. If Dallas can move the chains this week, they will put up a load of points on the Falcons.

MATT RYAN: @ DALLAS ($6,000)

Matty Ice was one of the bright spots at quarterback in Week 9, and now gets a date with the struggling Cowboys. Look for the Falcons to attack the middle of the field with Gage and Pitts, while testing the perimeter with Cordarrelle Patterson. This contest will have some shootout potential, so Ryan should attempt more than 30 passes.

TAYLOR HEINICKE: VS TAMPA BAY ($5,400)

There hasn’t been anything impressive out of the Washington quarterback after a hot start. Even then, his rushing upside and the perfect passing funnel on the Bucs’ defense means we can expect plenty of scoring opportunities for Heinicke. The Bucs should destroy Washington, so we are counting on Heinicke to take out the trash for us.

Running Backs

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY: @ ARIZONA ($8,400)

It was impossible not to smile as I typed this name for the first time in forever. CMC is the Panthers’ offense. Regardless of quarterback, McCaffrey will tote the rock a bunch of times and put up gaudy fantasy numbers in the process. The most perfect cash game player of his era has rightfully reassumed the throne.

JONATHAN TAYLOR: VS JACKSONVILLE ($8,100)

Many fantasy analysts doubted whether JT was “generational” or not. After the last few weeks, there is nary a detractor to be found. His unique size, speed, vision, quickness, patience, and contact balance is a sight to behold on the football field. The Jags haven’t been terrible against the run, but they are in for a reckoning with Indy. The Colts run their entire offense through the running back position. It took a year and a half, but Frank Reich finally realized that JT is good.

DALVIN COOK: @ LA CHARGERS ($8,000)***

Cook has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons this week. That said, he is still primed for a massive performance against the Chargers. LA is getting mauled up front this season, especially against physical run-first teams like the Vikings. I would be stunned if Cook didn’t go for 25-plus this week with multiple touchdowns.

NAJEE HARRIS: VS DETROIT ($7,900)***

The rookie from Alabama picked up an injury designation this week, but logged a full Friday practice ahead of a salivating matchup with the Lions. This will be Chalk City in tournament play, but Najee’s volume against such a weak run defense leaves me hard-pressed to find a better play at any position on this slate.

AUSTIN EKELER: VS MINNESOTA ($7,600)

Ekeler’s ho-hum performance against the Eagles last week was somewhat disappointing, but it did cause his salary to drop $300 for this home game against the Vikings. I like that. He is still an elite dual-threat running back that is always a strong play in PPR formats.

EZEKIEL ELLIOTT: VS ATLANTA ($7,000)

Volume pays the bills in DFS cash games. Not many backs have toted the rock more over the last few years than Zeke. Atlanta isn’t a slouch up front, but Zeke will get his touches, both on the ground and through the air. He also has a built-in touchdown upside that few running backs in the league have on a weekly basis.

AARON JONES: VS SEATTLE ($6,900)

The Packers just won’t ever let Aaron Jones cook. He is obviously a gifted running back, with a bloodhound’s nose for the end zone and a penchant for the big play. Still, we witnessed him spend more than an entire quarter on the sidelines watching AJ Dillon take valuable touches away. He is still a great value this week against a very weak Seattle run defense, especially if Aaron Rodgers is cleared to play.

D’ERNEST JOHNSON*: @ NEW ENGLAND ($4,700)

No Nick Chubb? No Kareem Hunt? Not even Demetric Felton? No problem for the Browns. Johnson was impressive against a tough Denver defense a couple weeks ago. The Patriots have been less-than-stellar against the run this season. Cleveland will pound the run behind their excellent offensive line and spring Johnson for a great value performance this week.

Wide Receivers

AJ BROWN: VS NEW ORLEANS ($7,800)

Sure, you can add Davante Adams to this list once Aaron Rodgers is cleared, but until then, spend up at running back and save some salary with AJB as the top receiver for cash games. His target share has been massive (over 30%) and he adds some incredible potential after the catch.

TERRY MCLAURIN: VS TAMPA BAY ($7,600)

Value off the bye week has been a staple of my DFS strategy all season. We aren’t getting much of a discount on Scary Terry, but his target volume is near the top of all NFL receivers. Washington will be airing it out early and often against the Bucs, with McLaurin getting the first drink at the trough.

MIKE EVANS: @ WASHINGTON ($6,900)***

If there is a wonderful silver lining to injuries occurring, it is the clarity we get with some of these receiving groups. The Bucs flaunt some of the best starting receivers in the league, but as many as two of them will miss the game in DC. The healthiest of the stars is Evans, who is already among the most-targeted on the team. This is a mismatch made in heaven.

DIONTAE JOHNSON: VS DETROIT ($6,800)

The Steelers spread the ball around a lot more than I expected on Monday night against the Bears. It was the rookie tight end, Freiermuth that scored two touchdowns and an uptick in volume. Diontae is still the bread winner on the outside, especially with Chase Claypool hobbling around. This is a huge matchup advantage for Diontae against the Lions if Big Ben chooses to exploit it.

MIKE WILLIAMS: VS MINNESOTA ($6,600)

The darling of the early season has fallen off sharply the last few weeks. Williams has seen his target share abruptly fall from the loftiest of heights. Against the Vikings, it would behoove the Chargers to attack the outside more than they have lately. Williams is due for a resurgence this week.

MICHAEL PITTMAN, JR: VS JACKSONVILLE ($6,300)

Once thought of as more of a home run tournament-type receiver, Pittman has seen his target share from Carson Wentz hold steady. Wentz trusts the young receiver at all depths on the field now, choosing to pepper him in any situation. His salary is also remarkably low for his recent production.

JERRY JEUDY: VS PHILADELPHIA ($5,300)

On the surface, Philly has done a pretty good job covering outside receivers this season. That was with a healthy Darius Slay, and it belies their ineptitude at forcing incomplete passes. The middle of the field is ripe for the picking against the thoroughly unathletic Eagles’ defense. Jeudy might need to get his numbers through sheer volume, making him a great cash value on Sunday.

RUSSELL GAGE: @ DALLAS ($5,000)

After one game where Gage was active but not involved, he came alive last week with 13.4 points on eight targets. Dallas really struggles to cover the slot, especially if the receiver is savvy and shows good spatial awareness in zone coverage. Gage fits that bill and won’t break the bank.

JAKOBI MEYERS: VS CLEVELAND ($4,800)

It’s one of the most wondrous things in the NFL at the moment. Meyers now has the most receiving yards in NFL history without scoring a single touchdown. I haven’t weighed in on the topic until this week, but I believe he will get his first one on Sunday against the Browns to add to his already-solid workload.

TYLER JOHNSON: @ WASHINGTON ($3,300)***

Just like with Mike Evans, Johnson is a beneficiary of the Antonio Brown injury in this offense. Brady will still be throwing it plenty, and Johnson was one of my top value picks in Week 9. He’s only $200 more expensive than last week and Chris Godwin might also miss Sunday’s game. This is a screaming value and potential free square.

Tight Ends

KYLE PITTS: @ DALLAS ($5,800)

The unicorn has fought through double teams and bracket coverage ever since Calvin Ridley stepped away from the team. He is still putting up decent numbers, even if Matt Ryan seems to lose all concept of accuracy and touch when targeting Pitts in the red zone. I say Pitts scores on a long touchdown against Dallas on Sunday.

DAWSON KNOX: @ NY JETS ($4,500)

His hand might still be mangled, but Knox is back for the Bills on Sunday. The middle of the field is a glaring weakness of the Cover-2 shell defense deployed on Buffalo last week. Knox will fill that gap nicely, should the Jets try to emulate the Jags this week.

NOAH FANT: VS PHILADELPHIA ($4,300)***

Fant was activated off the COVID-19 reserve list just in time for his juiciest matchup of the season. The Eagles are abysmal at linebacker and slot corner, allowing nearly an 80% completion percentage. Fant has the speed and range to really gouge this defense. I’m ready for it.

PAT FREIERMUTH: VS DETROIT ($3,900)

The old dog, Big Ben seems to have found himself a shiny new toy in Freiermuth. The Keystone State folks love the rookie out of Penn State more than their own children at this point. His two touchdowns on Monday night were a precursor to more work, especially with injuries in the receiving corps.

DAN ARNOLD: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($3,500)

The most targeted Jags receiver the last four weeks is…(drumroll)…Dan Arnold? He is a newcomer to Jacksonville, arriving via trade with the Panthers a month ago. He is already logging many of his snaps out wide to take advantage of his size and athleticism. Trevor Lawrence is smartly seeking out his security blanket, which won’t cost much against an Indy defense that struggles to cover any position.

Put a Ring on It

Let me set the scene for you. It was Chico, California on a day that Californians would consider chilly (under 70 degrees). I remember the date now, but it was otherwise an anonymous Monday in November. There were still bodies in the streets around campus sleeping off their Halloween hangovers two days later, but I was a junior Wildcat and surprisingly studious and dedicated to my education. Chico State was and is still is known more for its rowdy nightlife than its rigorous curriculum, but it wasn’t an itch I needed to scratch more than a couple evenings a week.

I was 22 and a regular on the Butte County karaoke circuit. It was an older scene, but one that made me feel right at home. I felt like the episode of Rocko’s Modern Life when Rocko discovered that Heffer was living his best life as “The King” of the local roller rink. Monday nights were open mic night at Madison Bear Garden (or simply, The Bear) and drinks were dirt cheap. The bartenders at The Bear knew me well by then and appreciated that I was a good tipper. The Bear is known for a few things, including a literal cornucopia of random things attached to the walls and ceilings. The back bar room where they held karaoke in cooler months had an entire freaking stagecoach bolted upside down on the ceiling. This night was special because I ended up singing to someone special.

We look back on that first night fondly after 10 years of marriage. The way I “pretended” to be her boyfriend because a bunch of drunk douchebags were lingering around her and her best friend and I was big and scary. She dared me to sing “Your Man” by Josh Turner because she didn’t believe I could sing bass like him. I got her real phone number that night. According to her, it was because I used proper grammar and “had a nice butt.” It hasn’t been a fairytale along the way, like we envisioned, but our best shared laughs pertain to our many adventures through young adulthood together. She is my queen and I am her jester. I don’t think I could hope for any better.

Despite getting absolutely shellacked last week by Scott head-to-head, the Nimble cash process was incredibly solid. We cleaned up easily in 50/50s and multipliers by getting aggressive in certain spots. Our cash games process won’t win every week, but losses are rare and haven’t cast any doubt on whether it’s working. In DFS, you get to put a ring on a different lineup every week. I doubt my wife would be understanding of that lifestyle choice in a different context.

Week 9 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

JOSH ALLEN: @ JACKSONVILLE ($8,200)

Buffalo’s strength of schedule has been truly laughable lately when it comes to opposing defenses. It does toughen up in the second half, but not until they bludgeon the Jags on Sunday. Allen is a rare bird and offers magnificent stability and upside. He’s a great play, as always.

PATRICK MAHOMES: VS GREEN BAY ($7,800)

Remember, I weight volume more heavily than anything else for cash games. The Kansas City defense has been so abysmal that Mahomes can’t help but be a safe play every week. Sometimes the guy has a bad game, like last week, but you can’t fade a player of Mahomes’ magnitude this week in good conscience.

LAMAR JACKSON: VS MINNESOTA ($7,300)***

The DK salary algorithm strikes again! Stars are priced down coming off their bye week because last week’s performance is weighted in the formula. He should be the most popular quarterback in GPPs, but the chalk isn’t so heavy that you ignore his amazing value in a likely shootout game. Jackson is my favorite quarterback play of the week.

JALEN HURTS: VS LA CHARGERS ($6,700)

Along the same lines as Mahomes and Jackson, Hurts played poorly last week and is priced down against the Chargers. Los Angeles defends outside receivers well, but not so much the middle of the field. Philly should do just fine scoring points, with plenty of consolation volume to come in garbage time when Philly is inevitably getting destroyed.

DANIEL JONES: VS LAS VEGAS ($5,600)

Similar to Hurts, Jones is struggling mightily to be a good quarterback this year. That does not mean he isn’t valuable for DFS purposes on any given Sunday. He has good rushing ability and faces a Raiders defense that has a good pass rush, but isn’t that good. Down in this price range, a 20-point performance is more than sufficient.

JORDAN LOVE: @ KANSAS CITY ($4,400)

Nobody should expect Jordan Love to put on a scoring clinic like Aaron Rodgers, but this is the lowest salary for a starting quarterback I have ever seen on DraftKings. The Chiefs have also been absolutely atrocious on defense all season. Just think of the studs you can play with a quarterback who might as well be free.

Running Backs

ALVIN KAMARA: VS ATLANTA ($8,200)

I held off on putting Kamara on this list until Taysom Hill was ruled out this week. Hill is the Kamara killer, doing more to eliminate the joy of rostering him than any defense can. With Trevor Siemian starting, Kamara is in line for a massive workload against one of the worst defenses in the NFL against the running back position.

AUSTIN EKELER: @ PHILADELPHIA ($7,900)

It’s funny how I compared Austin Ekeler to Christian McCaffrey for PPR purposes when CMC was on the shelf. Now that CMC is expected to return, I’m stunned that he is already more expensive to roster than Ekeler. Philly struggles mightily to slow running backs down, especially through the air. This is a smash spot.

AARON JONES: @ KANSAS CITY ($7,200)

A young quarterback’s best friend is a great running game. It’s also a tight end, but the Packers lost Robert Tonyan for the season last week. Jones is an exemplary receiver in his own rite and will be the tip of the spear against the abysmal Chiefs’ defense. His volume is very stable, even when sharing with AJ Dillon. He also is a bloodhound when it comes to finding the end zone, which gives him tremendous upside.

NICK CHUBB: @ CINCINNATI ($6,700)

I simply don’t understand this one. How in the world is one of the very best running backs in the NFL under $7k? I’m not complaining one bit. He only yielded five touches to D’Ernest Johnson last week. The lone touchdown by Johnson is skewing what really happened last week in Chubb’s first game back. He still got 17 touches against a tough defense. I wouldn’t say the Bengals are as good as the Steelers at stopping the run, so even a slight bump in volume could make for a fun afternoon.

MYLES GASKIN: VS HOUSTON ($5,800)

I really think Gaskin stinks as a running back. He doesn’t do anything particularly well and is getting outplayed by his former college and current Dolphins teammate, Salvon Ahmed. He is still getting more opportunities than Ahmed, especially in the passing game. Much like a metronome, Gaskin only scores more than 10 points in odd-numbered weeks. He also gets a date with the Texans for Week 9.

CHASE EDMONDS: @ SAN FRANCISCO ($5,300)***

Despite only scoring 5.4 points against the 49ers earlier in the season, I’m firing up Edmonds as my top cash play at running back this week. With the news that Kyler Murray is a game-time decision, I expect a bump in volume for both Edmonds and James Conner, with the latter useless to me without receiving volume. I expect Edmonds to catch at least five passes and break off a couple big plays on Sunday.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS: @ DALLAS ($4,800)

It has been a pleasant surprise to see the Cowboys in the top-10 of defending running backs this season. I’m not so sure it has to do with their stoutness up front as it does their suspect pass defense, but it beckoned me to dig deeper. The teams that have run the ball effectively against Dallas used a physical runner (Fournette and Harris). Williams is the type of back that should see his volume increase as the season progresses, starting as the tone setter against the Cowboys.

Wide Receivers

TYREEK HILL: VS GREEN BAY ($7,900)

Football is a game of adjustments. The Chiefs have been destroying defenses for three years with Hill’s speed down the field. Recently, defenses have put an umbrella of deep safeties over the top with soft man coverage underneath. Last week, the Chiefs took advantage of that by taking the free short yardage to Cheetah and let him run after the catch. This change in strategy makes Hill a fantastic cash game option, where he has traditionally been a GPP mercenary.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON: @ BALTIMORE ($7,500)

Jefferson is so much fun to watch. He is a gifted technician on the outside, seemingly matchup-proof already in his second NFL season. I have a lot of respect for Marlon Humphrey, but he won’t be shadowing Jefferson on Sunday. He also has a massive disadvantage in the athleticism department when covering Jefferson. I love all the receivers in this shootout game.

ADAM THIELEN: @ BALTIMORE ($6,900)

Some of the Vikings games that turn into high scoring affairs turn into which Minnesota receiver scores 30 PPR points first (because they both do). With the Ravens’ secondary in rough condition, Thielen will have favorable zone looks on nearly every snap. I think he and Jefferson each get double-digit targets this week.

BRANDIN COOKS: @ MIAMI ($6,100)

Praise the Lord that Tyrod Taylor is back! Cooks wasn’t quite as reliable every week with Davis Mills in there, but now that Taylor is returning from the IR we should see a great bump in his usage down the field. Miami is 30th against the wide receiver position. I’m licking my chops this week because the Taylor/Cooks stack is also not drawing very much attention.

JALEN WADDLE: VS HOUSTON ($5,600)

On the other side of the Texans-Dolphins game, attrition is setting in for the Miami receiving corps. Devante Parker has landed on the IR, putting a narrower scope on Waddle and Gesicki. Hollins and the others also should see a bump, but Waddle’s volume when Parker is out has been staggering.

KADARIUS TONEY: VS LAS VEGAS ($5,200)

He’s not your average slot receiver, but Toney has been a reliable weapon for Daniel Jones when he’s on the field. I think he will get plenty of looks this week against the Raiders, especially in the second half. Vegas is probably going to destroy the Giants and I’m happy to cash in the recycling from garbage time.

JERRY JEUDY: @ DALLAS ($5,000)

Jeudy worked himself back in last week to the tune of four receptions for 39 yards. Most of his snaps came from the slot, which is a great place to attack the Cowboys’ secondary that ranks 24th against opposing wide receivers. Jeudy’s ankle passed the stress test against Washington, so a nice increase in targets is inbound.

HUNTER RENFROW: @ NY GIANTS ($4,800)***

The receiver that stands to see the biggest increase in work from the Ruggs fallout is Renfrow. His chemistry with Derek Carr is incredible and he seems to always make the clutch play. The Giants are terrible across the board on defense, so getting a skilled slot weapon for under $5k will be in nearly all of my lineups.

BRANDON AIYUK*: VS ARIZONA ($4,100)

A lot of DFS is spotting patterns. Aiyuk’s playing time and target share is trending upward, while his DK salary is trending downward. After seeing his potential in the second half of last season, I can’t see myself spending down any lower at wide receiver in a cash game with this opportunity screaming at me.

Tight Ends

TRAVIS KELCE: VS GREEN BAY ($7,000)

Kelce is coming off a terrible game. His salary this week matches his lowest of the season and nobody seems to want him against the Packers. I see a player whose target volume has been as steady as any receiver in the league, save for last week’s aberration when Mahomes didn’t seem to even look his way. I expect that to change immediately this week.

DARREN WALLER: @ NY GIANTS ($6,200)

Waller is a gifted receiver. He has athletic traits that very few possess. Derek Carr loves to pepper Waller with targets every chance he gets. The Giants have a horrible defense. For all of these reasons, you should feel great about rostering Waller this week.

MARK ANDREWS: VS MINNESOTA ($5,500)

I will have plenty of exposure to the players in this game, especially with Lamar and Andrews. The one strength of the Minnesota defense is their pass rush, so having a tight end like Andrews is a great weapon to get open quickly and also adjust his routes when Jackson scrambles. Big week incoming for this offense.

MIKE GESICKI: VS HOUSTON ($4,900)***

Just like with Jalen Waddle, Gesicki stands to see a ton of target volume with Devante Parker hitting the IR. It’s great timing for Gesicki that he will step into that opportunity against the worst defense in the NFL against tight ends. To put it mildly, I’m ecstatic that Gesicki is under $5k.

DALLAS GOEDERT: VS LA CHARGERS ($4,500)

For how strong the Chargers are in coverage against outside receivers, they are equally bad over the middle of the field. They allow the third-most points to opposing tight ends, making Goedert a very nice play this week at a good value.

ALBERT OKWUEGBUNAM: @ DALLAS ($2,600)

It is believed that Noah Fant will not be activated in time for Sunday’s game with COVID, so Albert O is thrusted into a matchup with the porous Dallas Cowboys. I’ll also be monitoring the status of his knee injury. If anything happens to Albert O, Eric Saubert is at the minimum $2,500 and would be a nice pivot. You can also play Tyler Conklin of the Vikings at $3k.

All Hallow’s Eve

My family goes all-out this time of year. Between flickering orange porch lights, terrifying (and motion-sensing) decorations, and elaborate costumes, Halloween is entirely off the rails at our house. It doesn’t end there, either. We also celebrate Dia de los Muertos from November 1-2, which is a special time to honor all of our loved ones who are no longer with us. We lay out an altar, known as an ofrenda, decorated with flowers, candles, and some of their favorite food and drinks.

The two holidays are intertwined perfectly with what we feel is an important connection with the spiritual world. It also allows us to completely overload on chocolate and alcohol for three days. Being festive is fun. Sharing funny stories about Aunt Pat or Grandpa Willie bring us immense joy, while bringing their spirits back to life within us.

Football Sunday for Week 8 falls directly on All Hallow’s Eve this year. I expect some weird, wild things to happen. The extra bit of ghostly chill in the air should bring about some breakthrough performances by players previously left for dead. Bye-mageddon is over, the portal between the mortal and spiritual worlds is agape, and we have a 12-game main slate to sift through the DFS tricks and treats.

Week 8 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

JOSH ALLEN: VS MIAMI ($8,100)

There are few quarterbacks that strike as much fear into defensive coordinators more than Josh Allen. Buffalo is among the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL, with Allen taking strides every game to be more potent than ever. Add in his rushing ability, especially at the goal line, and this is a very safe bet to hit value against a terrible Miami defense.

MATTHEW STAFFORD: @ HOUSTON ($7,600)

With the way less-mobile quarterbacks like Stafford and Brady have been dealing, it makes very little sense to have them priced under $8k. I’m not mad at it. You might not normally expect a lot of passing volume in a lopsided game, but the Rams have been keeping their foot on the accelerator deep into games. Stafford is one of the best plays at quarterback this week.

JALEN HURTS: @ DETROIT ($7,200)

Coach Sirianni has been equal parts underwhelming and overwhelmed in his first season, but one thing has been constant: Jalen Hurts will score 20 fantasy points every week. Has Hurts been a good quarterback? That is a resounding “no,” but I can’t think of a better spot for a ceiling performance for Philly’s offense than facing the worst defense in the NFL.

CARSON WENTZ: VS TENNESSEE ($5,700)***

It was stunning to see this much-maligned Titans defense hold the mighty Chiefs without a single touchdown last week. If anything, it revealed a level of dysfunction in Kansas City that is much greater than previously thought. The Colts are trending skyward, with one of the better balanced attacks in the AFC. Wentz has returned to his 2017 form. I’m ok if it only lasts one more week against a defense that still has a ton of glaring weaknesses.

TREVOR LAWRENCE: @ SEATTLE ($5,500)

The top pick is quietly growing right before our very eyes. It seems that Lawrence is improving on every pass he throws, where the other rookie signal callers are going through immense growing pains. This Jags team has leveled off after a tumultuous start to Urban Meyer’s first season as a professional coach, with their stud rookie handling his business with grace. Seattle won’t offer much resistance here, especially with Lawrence forecasted to chuck it over 30 times.

Running Backs

DERRICK HENRY: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($8,900)

I got burned by the Henry chalk in tournaments last week, but his performance was still plenty good enough to pay off in cash games. Stacking volume is still the mission in 50/50 contests, so his immense workload is still coveted at this salary.

ALVIN KAMARA: VS TAMPA BAY ($8,700)

Let the record show that Khalil Herbert is the reason why Kamara makes the list in Week 8. The Bears rookie did the impossible last week, trekking his way to 100 yards against a seemingly impermeable Bucs’ front seven. This is very promising for Kamara, who is one of the best dual-threat weapons in the game.

JONATHAN TAYLOR: VS TENNESSEE ($7,200)

This spot was inhabited by Austin Ekeler, until he popped up on the injury report with a hip issue. Taylor will get a big workload in this one, especially now that Frank Reich has finally discovered that JT is nearly unstoppable in the open field if they use him in the screen game.

JOE MIXON: @ NY JETS ($6,900)

Back to the well with Mixon here. He yielded some carries to Samaje Perine late in the Bengals’ romp over the Ravens last week, but looked amazing when he was on the field. Cincinnati has been very effective through the air this season, but it can’t be ignored that Mixon will enter a date with the lowly Jets on fresher legs.

JAMES ROBINSON: @ SEATTLE ($6,600)***

I might be in a small minority here, but I believe JRob to be one of the most well-rounded running backs in the NFL. He has proven himself to be everything and more for the Jags this season, both on the ground and through the air. Seattle was just picked apart by the Saints last week and offer very little in the way of friction for opposing backs. Robinson will see a ton of work in this one, too.

CHUBA HUBBARD: @ ATLANTA ($6,000)

For how much I despise Hubbard’s skill set, his opportunities have been plenty. He was a dud last week in a decent spot, but we revisit him again as a plus cash option against an atrocious Atlanta front. It’s put up or shut up time for Darnold and this offense without CMC. Their schedule is incredibly soft right now.

KENNY GAINWELL: @ DETROIT ($5,000)

It wasn’t like Miles Sanders was receiving enough work to be relevant before he injured his ankle last week. Gainwell was the more reliable back in the receiving game last week, before and after Sanders left. Now, with Sanders out and Boston Scott in, Gainwell stands to get closer to a 50/50 share of the touches against the worst defense in the NFL. This will be fun.

Wide Receivers

COOPER KUPP: @ HOUSTON ($9,000)

For all the dysfunction and calamity surrounding the Texans this season, their secondary has done fairly well defending the wide receiver position. Frankly, that doesn’t mean diddly against the mighty Rams, who are imposing their will on every opponent. Kupp is a target monster for Stafford and is adding an ungodly amount of touchdown upside to boot.

STEFON DIGGS: VS MIAMI ($8,100)

I will be incredibly overweight on the Buffalo stack this week in GPPs. Hell, it might be dumb to fade the Bills in all formats. This is the type of game that stands out to me as a free square. Diggs returned to form before the bye. Even a Xavien Howard shadow won’t be enough to prevent him from hitting value in cash.

MIKE WILLIAMS: VS NEW ENGLAND ($7,700)

It has been a few weeks since we saw the Chargers at their best, but we shouldn’t forget just how dominant Williams has been this season as their X receiver. The Patriots famously shut out LA last season, but this is a new regime. The Staley regime is pulling out all the stops and the Chargers will be airing it out early and often with an injured Ekeler.

DEEBO SAMUEL: @ CHICAGO ($7,400)

I’m not yet convinced that the Bears are a bad team. Sure, they are coached by an arrogant buffoon, but their defense is still stout and the offense looks slightly better under Bill Lazor. I think Chicago crushes the 49ers this week with Nagy on the COVID list, which lends me to believe the 49ers will pepper Deebo to keep up.

DIONTAE JOHNSON: @ CLEVELAND ($6,700)***

Aside from a strange game in Week 5, Johnson has been targeted 10 or more times in every game he has played. The Steelers will be heavily reliant on the short passing game to neutralize Miles Garrett and the rest of the Browns’ pass rush. Diontae is one of the sharpest route runners in football and will be looked to early and often by Big Ben.

CALVIN RIDLEY: VS CAROLINA ($6,600)

How could we overlook Ridley, one of the most talented receivers in the NFL? This is an insulting salary for cash games, since the Alabama product has garnered 10-plus targets in every game since Week 1. Carolina has not been as good in the secondary since their competition stiffened in Week 4. Wheels up in all formats here.

CHRIS GODWIN: @ NEW ORLEANS ($6,400)

The Bucs are concerned that Antonio Brown will miss a lot more time with his ankle injury. This is a huge opening for the uber-talented Godwin. Mike Evans got the fanfare of his three touchdown game, but Godwin was the more targeted player and also hit paydirt. The Saints’ secondary will have their hands full on Sunday.

DEVONTA SMITH: @ DETROIT ($5,500)

The Slim Reaper has done everything asked of him this season, which has been overshadowed by the exemplary play of Jamarr Chase. Don’t hold the moronic coaching against the rookie out of Alabama; he will still flash in positive matchups like this one. I foresee a 10-target game against the pitiful Lions.

JERRY JEUDY*: VS WASHINGTON ($4,900)

I can’t contain my excitement this week. Jeudy is one of my favorite young players and appears to be a full go coming back from a high ankle sprain. He also returns to face a Washington secondary that is one of the worst in the NFL at defending the position. I’ll take the one week free square under $5k.

LAVISKA SHENAULT JR: @ SEATTLE ($4,700)

It took Urban Meyer a week to figure out how to get Shenault looks in the passing game without DJ Chark. Looking elsewhere for upside in tournaments might be wise, but I’ll bank on Viska to get another 10 targets at this value and work around it in cash games.

Tight Ends

KYLE PITTS: VS CAROLINA ($6,300)

The masses are now seeing why I have been calling this guy one of the best receiving prospects in NFL history. He is not a tight end by any description except for how we slot him in fantasy. The legendary rookie will keep his storybook season rolling against a Panthers team that is struggling mightily.

TJ HOCKENSON: VS PHILADELPHIA ($5,400)

I love picking on the Eagles, especially with stud tight ends. Hockenson is appearing healthier in the last two weeks. That’s great, because Philly is horrible at covering athletes in space. Their lack of athleticism and ball skills will make Hock one of the best values on the board.

TYLER HIGBEE: @ HOUSTON ($4,500)***

I don’t think Higbee is very good, but I know the Texans are terrible at covering tight ends. Stafford will find Higbee running wide open all game and his odds of scoring a touchdown in this game are astoundingly high. I might flex a tight end this week again, with Higbee as one of them every time.

HUNTER HENRY: @ LA CHARGERS ($4,200)

We just love to emphasize the power of revenge! It also helps when Henry’s former team is struggling to cover the tight end position. The strength of the outside corners has created a funnel in the middle of the field. This is an edge that Belichick will see and exploit.

CJ UZOMAH: @ NY JETS ($3,700)

Never walk away from a heater. Uzomah is still under $4k, which means fire him up again in cash and GPP contests. We shouldn’t have to tell you that the Jets suck. The Bengals don’t suck, so you should play any of them with confidence this week.

DAN ARNOLD: @ SEATTLE ($2,800)

This is a hunch play. I predict the Jaguars will roll into Lumen Field and beat the Seahawks behind a potent offensive attack. We don’t need much at all from Arnold at this salary, but 5-7 targets is definitely on the table. He is also going to be tough to cover in the red zone.

Cry-mageddon

I’ve amazed myself at the staggering amount of restraint required to not post a single Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) GIF, “This is how I win.” The tears are flowing. The deepest voices have gone shrill. Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season is “Bye-mageddon.”

The waaambulance chasers are already reserving airtime. “If you or a loved one had trouble setting a valid roster in Week 7, you may be entitled to financial compensation.” It’s pandemonium out there in the fantasy football community, but I’m honestly feeling just fine this week. Understanding who is left in this post-apocalyptic football hellscape is half the battle. The other half is pulling your hat down and holding on tight like Chris LeDoux and enjoying the ride.

Sure, some of my best rosters are oozing with studs from the Cowboys, Chargers, Bills, Steelers, Vikings, and Jaguars. Still, out of 46 season-long teams, only one of them made me taste the metallic flavor of imminent death. That team is 5-1, so I’ll take my loss and move on. We still have DFS. We still have the ability to double our money (or better) this week by only worrying about who is on the football field.

The Main Slate is nasty, drab, and gloomy. It still has winners. I don’t need to list the players who are unavailable; you’re already well aware. Add in the injured ones and it might seem desolate to the untrained eye. The Nimble team has the tools and the knowledge to hone in on the best plays with laser precision. The names are irrelevant. The key to saving the world with Bruce Willis this week is finding the best values and nailing down continuing trends. I can already hear Stephen Tyler screaming into the mic, “Don’t wanna close my eyes…”

Week 7 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

KYLER MURRAY: VS HOUSTON ($8,500)

Murray was back to his cash-winning ways in Cleveland last week. The only reason to shy away from him this week is the nice top-end matchups for quarterbacks that cost a little less to roster.

PATRICK MAHOMES: @ TENNESSEE ($8,400)***

Mahomes has been erratic at the game of football, but straight money in fantasy. His “worst” performance was 22 points against a staunch Buffalo defense. This week, he draws the stone-worst secondary in the NFL. Tennessee likely has the firepower to hang with Kansas City, which bodes well for Mahomes’ median score rising.

AARON RODGERS: VS WASHINGTON ($7,500)

The 2020 NFL MVP is a shareholder of Soldier Field in Chicago, too. He returns to Lambeau Field to host the disappointing Washington Football Team. Washington has yet another tough draw, after getting diced up by Patrick Mahomes last week. Rodgers and Adams should feast yet again.

RYAN TANNEHILL: VS KANSAS CITY ($6,400)

For how dominant Derrick Henry has been, Tannehill has slipped back into mediocrity. He will be missing Julio Jones again this week, along with a svelte AJ Brown coming off the Chipotle cleanse. In any case, Tannehill and the Titans will need to chuck the ball around to keep up with KC, who also sports an abysmal secondary.

MAC JONES: VS NY JETS ($5,300)

If you’re going to build around expensive pieces like Henry and Hill this week, you might need to slide into unsavory territory at quarterback. Should you venture down into this abyss, Jones has been consistent and faces a Jets defense that is playing rudderless football.

Running Backs

DERRICK HENRY: VS KANSAS CITY ($9,200)

Derrick Henry in cash, no matter what. The man is generational. The size, speed, and sheer ability shown by King Henry is unmatched in today’s NFL. He is matchup-proof, script-proof, and seemingly tackle-proof. The Chiefs defense will have a hell of a time trying to slow him down and get their offense back on the field.

DARRELL HENDERSON: VS DETROIT ($6,600)***

Back to the well with Hendo, who gets a second-consecutive cupcake matchup. He has burst for days and is getting a hefty workload advantage over Sony Michel. A cash lineup without Henry and Hendo is a losing one this week.

JOE MIXON: @ BALTIMORE ($6,500)

Mixon and Henderson were key features of last week’s Hot Cash article. There is no reason to fade Mixon this week, either. Baltimore is 23rd against opposing running backs, and Mixon is one of the last remaining bellcow backs in the league. If he is healthy, he’s a great cash player.

CORDARRELLE PATTERSON: @ MIAMI ($6,300)

Did you forget about Patterson over the bye week, following the game in London? I didn’t. The Swiss army knife is averaging over 20 DK points per game this season and now goes up against a horrendous Miami defense. Arthur Smith will keep riding the hot hand. That hot hand still hasn’t been Mike Davis and won’t be for a while.

CHUBA HUBBARD: @ NY GIANTS ($6,100)

I shed a tear when I envision what kind of insane numbers a healthy Christian McCaffrey would be putting up over this stretch of games. For the third-straight week, Hubbard faces an impoverished run defense. Hubbard isn’t even a sliver of the player that CMC is, but volume is key. Bad football players can still score fantasy points.

DEANDRE SWIFT: @ LA RAMS ($6,000)

How does DK treat a player averaging 18.2 points per game? They drop his salary to the lowest it has been since Week 3. The algorithm hates Swift, which means I love him every week for cash games. The Rams should absolutely destroy the Lions on Sunday, which opens up the entire second half for Swift to PPR the slate to death.

DAMIEN HARRIS: VS NY JETS ($5,700)

Maybe Bill Belichick has gone soft at his advanced age, but he hasn’t put Harris in the doghouse for very long. He has given some more work to the plodding rookie, Rhamondre Stevenson, but Harris is still getting a ton of work. I don’t see much resistance this week for Harris against the Jets.

Wide Receivers

DAVANTE ADAMS: VS WASHINGTON ($8,900)

The Washington secondary is terrible. Davante Adams is the best wide receiver in the NFL. They cannot and will not cover him. 15-plus targets are on the docket for Sunday and I will try to shoehorn him into my cash lineups wherever possible.

TYREEK HILL: @ TENNESSEE ($8,600)

If the Adams shoe just won’t fit, the Cheetah-print track shoe will slip on like Cinderella. Hill will be another week healed from his thigh contusion, which limited him to a mere 22 DK points last week in Washington. Just imagine the possibilities.

DJ MOORE: @ NY GIANTS ($7,100)

Don’t forget about DJ Moore! Sam Darnold is still heavily targeting him, which has given him an unprecedented number of chances to showcase his game-breaking talent in the open field. After two games with a downtick in production, he is back down to a more reasonable salary. I will be happy to pay that for his volume against the woeful Giants.

CALVIN RIDLEY: @ MIAMI ($6,600)***

Save for a head-scratching Week 1 game plan, Ridley has surpassed ten targets in every single game he has played this season. Just like with Patterson, we are getting salary relief from the bye week. We’re getting Ridley at his lowest salary of the season, by far. He missed the London game for a personal reason before the bye, and will be returning to face a Dolphins defense with a myriad of injuries in the secondary.

BRANDIN COOKS: @ ARIZONA ($6,000)

Can we get any more repetitive in this article? Cooks was my key ingredient wide receiver last week and very quietly surpassed a 3x value. Another 10-plus targets is on the docket this week against the Cardinals. Their defense has been powered by a ruthless pass rush, but their talent at corner is still really bad.

CHRIS GODWIN: VS CHICAGO ($5,900)

With Gronk and AB out this week, both Evans and Godwin are fully in play. Evans is the preferred tournament option, but Godwin in the slot is an automatic cash play against this pass funnel Bears’ defense. Godwin is much too talented to be under $6k, no matter who the Bucs are facing.

JAYLEN WADDLE: VS ATLANTA ($5,600)

Even with a massive $700 markup from last week, it was deserved for the speedy rookie, Waddle. He garnered 13 targets from Tua Tagovailoa last week in London. This week, he faces an Atlanta defense that has defended wide receivers relatively well, but not against great competition.

DARNELL MOONEY: @ TAMPA BAY ($4,600)

Can we get some respect for Mooney on DK? Actually, let’s keep him a well-kept secret for cash games. The Bears don’t pass a lot, but Mooney is still the most-targeted receiver on the team. Although we can’t trust Matt Nagy at all to come up with a good game plan against the league’s best pass funnel defense in Tampa, there should be a nice uptick in an already solid workload for the second-year pro from Tulane.

AMON-RA ST BROWN: @ LA RAMS ($4,100)

The Sun God was targeted seven times last week at $4.2k. The problem? He only clawed his way to 26 receiving yards on five receptions. Goff is a major problem for St Brown’s aDOT figure. This game should be a humiliating blowout, so I do like a likely double dose of targets for the USC rookie in mop-up time.

RASHOD BATEMAN*: VS CINCINNATI ($3,400)

DraftKings still hasn’t caught on to the massive potential of Shoddy B. Fresh off a groin injury, he took the field and seized a 22% target share. That equaled Mark Andrews’ share. Yahoo! DFS already increased Bateman’s salary by 50% from last week, but DK is lagging behind with only a $400 increase. I’ll take that free square every time.

Tight Ends

TRAVIS KELCE: @ TENNESSEE ($7,600)

Surprisingly, the Titans are pretty decent at defending the tight end position. A deeper dive would reveal that they simply haven’t had to face any good ones. Kelce commands a ton of attention on the field, which makes him a decent value. He isn’t my favorite, however, due to his stinger injury and matchup with Kevin Byard.

DARREN WALLER: VS PHILADELPHIA ($6,700)***

Didn’t that Vegas offense look liberated last week? It was the opposite of what I expected, but the Raiders draw another great matchup for tight ends this week. The corners for Philly have played pretty well, but they have been destroyed from the slot. Waller is a premium play this week at a lovely salary.

KYLE PITTS: @ MIAMI ($5,900)

It sounds strange, but I was excited to get up at 6:30 in the morning to watch the Falcons and Jets play in London. Kyle Pitts was in line for a massive day and he didn’t disappoint. The rookie isn’t done yet; the Dolphins are falling apart on defense. I think it also finally clicked for Arthur Smith. He now realizes that he should involve one of the most gifted receiving prospects in NFL history more for better results.

MIKE GESICKI: VS ATLANTA ($4,700)

Just as it isn’t fair (or accurate) to classify Kyle Pitts as a tight end, Gesicki has only lined up at the traditional spot on 12 snaps this season. The Falcons are in the middle of the pack against the pass, but this game has some sneaky shootout potential.

DALLAS GOEDERT: @ LAS VEGAS ($4,600)

It finally happened. Zach Ertz was traded months later than expected, but now the Eagles and Nick Sirianni can run 11 and 21 personnel like they planned to. Goedert will be a huge factor in this offense going forward, especially with the struggles of Jalen Hurts and Jalen Reagor.

CJ UZOMAH: @ BALTIMORE ($3,000)

It may be a statistic inflated by a series of tough matchups, but the Ravens are 29th at defending opposing tight ends. I think another contributing factor has been the poor health of the Baltimore secondary. Uzomah has looked incredible coming off his Achilles tear. Down at this salary, I feel very confident that Uzomah will approach double figures this week.