Featured

Nimble GPP Plays to Get You Paid!

Welcome to NFL Week 9! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals celebrates after the game-winning touchdown in overtime against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on...

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – $7,400

Kyler Murray’s offense runs the most plays every week. On average he attempts 40.6 passes per game and rushes 6.4 times per game. He’s touching the ball on 67% of the plays. Since the return of DeAndre Hopkins in Week 7, Murray has averaged 23.4 points per game. In the previous six weeks, he had been averaging 20.8 points per game.

166 of Murray’s 299 rushing yards have come in the last three games. His best rushing game of the season was agaisnt these same Seattle Seahawks in Week 6 when he rushed 10 times for 100 yards and the DraftKings rushing bonus. Murray hasn’t rushed for a score since Week 4, but that streak has a good chance of ending this week.

Stacking Murray with Hopkins is one of my favorite stacks of the week. It will be a popular stack given that there are only 10 games on the DraftKings main slate this week and Hopkins is relatively inexpensive. Running it back with Kenneth Walker III, who sliced up the Cardinals for 110 total yards and 19 DraftKings points in Week 6.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa calls out signals during an NFL football game between the Miami Dolphins and the Detroit Lions on October...

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins – $6,700

Last week Tua Tagovailoa torched a terrible Detroit Lions defense for 382 yards and three touchdowns. His wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are ranked first and fifth in DraftKings points per game at 24 and 19.7. Last week they combined to score 68.1-points, helping Tua score 32 himself. The trio combined for 100 DraftKings points.

Tua will be priced over 7K in the very near future. His weapons are a little priced up, but with the target volume, the price is worth paying. The Bears’ defense on paper is much better than the Lions, but the last week they got lit up by the Dallas Cowboys offense for 42 points. I expect Tua and company to keep this game up-tempo despite the Bears’ best efforts. I’m comfortable rolling Tua stacked with either wide receiver, but not both this week.

Value – Quarterback

Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears runs the ball during a game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on October 30, 2022 in Arlington, Texas....

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears – $5,300

In the last three games, Justin Fields has scored 69.8 DraftKings points. Schwing!! Fields has scored the fifth most points during that stretch and has performances of 26, 24, and 19.7. The floor is becoming safe and we have yet to explore his ceiling. He leads all quarterbacks with 319 rushing yards in the last five games. He’s averaged 64 yards per game and has rushed for two scores. Adding a big-body wide receiver like Chase Claypool can’t hurt either.

The Miami Dolphins rank 21st against quarterbacks, giving up 18-points per game. Jared Goff lit them up last week, passing for 321 yards and a touchdown. This game has a 44-point total, but I am smashing the over. I expect a score more like 35-28 with lots of DraftKings points to be claimed. Running Fields naked is an option. Stacking him with Darnell Mooney is a cheap stack at only $10,000. Either way, Fields will be a staple of my GPP builds.

High Priced – Running Back

Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers celebrates a first down against the Carolina Panthers during the third quarter in the game at Lambeau Field on...

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers – $7,400

Aaron Jones is one of my favorite plays this week! The RunTheSims.com NFL optimizer likes him as well. He’s currently the second-highest projected running back on the slate with a base projection of 20.11 and a ceiling projection hovering around 32-points. He’s currently Green Bay’s second-leading receiver with 30 receptions.

His matchup this week might be the nuts. According to StatMuse.com, “Aaron Jones has 98 carries for 503 yards and has scored seven touchdowns in seven games versus the Lions in his career.” The last time Jones played the Lions in September of 2021, he scored four touchdowns, three receiving. Jones saw 25 touches and was the focal point of the Packers’ offense last week. He scored 22.7 DraftKings points despite failing to score a touchdown. He averaged 7.2 yards per rush and looked dominant.

The man is simply on another level at the moment. And in case you didn’t get the memo, the Lions are terrible against running backs. They have given up 11 rushing touchdowns and over 1,000 total yards to running backs. It’s officially Aaron Jones SZN!

Mid-Range – Running Back

Travis Etienne Jr. Of the Jacksonville Jaguars evades Matt Henningsen of the Denver Broncos during the first quarter at Wembley Stadium in London on...

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,300

Travis Etienne is the truth! Last week he rushed for 156 yards on 24 carries, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. He scored 28.2 DraftKings points and crushed his value at only $5,800. This week he’s priced up $500. His volume and efficiency still make him a tremendous value at $6,300.

The Raiders have been terrible against pass-catching running backs, giving up 436 receiving yards and three touchdowns in seven games. Yes, they already had their bye week. I expect the Jaguars to run all over the Raiders this week with Etienne leading the way offensively. Alvin Kamara gashed them last week for three scores,

I’m hopeful Etienne picks up a rushing and a receiving score for the double touchdown dip. According to RunTheSims.com, his ceiling is over 31-points, making him a great GPP play in all formats this week.

Value – Running Back

Cordarrelle Patterson of the Atlanta Falcons scores a touchdown reception against Kendall Fuller of the Washington Football Team in the third quarter...

Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons – $5,800

Cordarrelle Patterson is eligible to return from the Atlanta Falcons Injured Reserve this week, leaving DFS sharps to beg the question, “what if Patterson is back?” I for one would be thrilled to see him return to his role of red zone touchdown vulture extraordinaire. Before getting injured in Week 4, Patterson had two 25-point games. He’s a boom-play this week if he returns to face the terrible Los Angeles Chargers rush defense.

The Chargers rank 31st against running backs, having given up close to 1,200 total yards and 10 touchdowns through seven games. The Falcons rush the ball 57% of the time, second most in the NFL this year. If Patterson gets the green light to play without any restrictions, he will be a staple in my GPP builds. If he’s on a pitch count, I still like him, but my exposure will probably be below the field.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

DeAndre Hopkins of the Arizona Cardinals catches the ball for a touchdown as Harrison Smith of the Minnesota Vikings defends during the second...

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals – $7,900

Since returning from a bullshit PED suspension DeAndre Hopkins has looked electric! He is averaging over 30 DraftKings points per game and is still priced under 8K. They can’t boost his price fast enough. He should be $8,300 but was only priced up $500 this week instead of $900. Take the discount while you can and bet over the field this week.

Hopkins has seen 27 targets in two games and he should continue to see 10-12 targets every single game moving forward. The Arizona Cardinals lead the NFL averaging 70 plays per game. Murray is averaging 40.6 pass attempts per game. I can’t spell it out any simpler for you if my name was NimbewNumbers. I’m stacking Hopkins with Murray, but definitely feel comfortable playing him in a run-back stack with a few Seattle Seahawks players.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Tyler Lockett of the Seattle Seahawks scores a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the New York Giants at Lumen Field on October 30, 2022 in...

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks – $6,100

The last time these two teams met back in Week 6, Tyler Lockett was held in check. He caught two of his five targets for 17 yards and only scored 1.7 DraftKings points. Lockett has seen eight targets the last two weeks and despite dropping a touchdown last week, scored 16.3 DraftKings points. He also caught a game-winning touchdown later in the game, so trust has been restored with Geno Smith.

Vegas loves this game! And so does my partner Mike “Cash” Collins from the Fantasy Millionaires (@FFMillionaires on Twitter). He made Lockett and Geno Smith his Gold Stack of the week. At only $11,900, this stack allows you to run it back with Hopkins or even Zach Ertz or Rondale Moore for $5,100. Did I mention that I will be game-stacking this game? Maybe you should as well.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Zay Jones of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs with the ball in the first quarter against the New York Giants at TIAA Bank Field on October 23, 2022 in...

Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars – $4,100

Zay Jones currently has only one less reception than Christian Kirk on the season and is $1,400 cheaper on DraftKings. Both wide receivers have favorable matchups against a bottom-third secondary that has given up over 1,100 yards receiving and six touchdowns to wide receivers. The 47.5-point game total is also very appealing. Where else can you find a wide receiver two on his team who is averaging 7 targets per game? Save yourself the research, because the answer is nowhere. Zay Jones might just be the lotto ticket you need to cash this week in GPP.

High Priced – Tight End

Zach Ertz of the Arizona Cardinals scores a touchdown as Harrison Smith of the Minnesota Vikings defends during the third quarter at U.S. Bank...

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals – $5,100

The Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks will be seeing each other for the second time this season when they face off in Week 9. The last time they played was only three weeks ago. In that matchup, Ertz converted seven receptions on 10 targets into 70 yards and 14 DraftKings points.

Since DeAndre Hopkins’ return in Week 7, Ertz has only seen nine total targets in two games. The good news for Ertz is that the Seattle Seahawks rank 32nd agaisnt tight ends, giving up over 20-points per game to the position. The Cardinals and Kliff Kingsbury are well aware of this and will exploit this mismatch. I’m most comfortable stacking Ertz with Murray or running him back in a game stack.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Gerald Everett of the Los Angeles Chargers runs the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on September 15, 2022 in...

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers – $4,800

The Los Angeles Chargers are hurting for pass catchers at the moment. Mike Williams is OUT for at least a month. Keenan Allen didn’t return to the game last week after tweaking his injured hamstring in the first half. Josh Palmer is still currently battling a concussion that calls his availability into question as well. As much as I like Everett as a pass-catching tight end, he legitimately might be the only eligible player for Justin Herbert to throw the ball to not named Austin Ekeler.

Seriously though, I expect the Chargers to feed Everett in this matchup. The Atlanta Falcons rank 29th against the tight end, having given up over 550 yards receiving and a touchdown this year. Everett or bust in Week 9!

Value – Tight End

Robert Tonyan of the Green Bay Packers reacts to a play against the Washington Commanders during the second half of the game at FedExField on October...

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers – $3,800

Robert Tonyan has 22 targets in his last three games, behind only Travis Kelce and Geroge Kittle. Aaron Rodgers has lost four straight games and this week’s tilt against the Detroit Lions is a must-win for him and the Packers. With Allen Lazard nursing an injury and Christian Watson in the NFL concussion protocol, Rodgers is desperate for trusted pass-catchers. The Lions rank 26th against the tight end position, giving up 15.5-points per game. I expect Tonyan to see 6-7 targets and have an opportunity for a touchdown in this potentially high-scoring game.

Featured

Nimble GPP Plays to Get You Paid!

Welcome to NFL Week 8! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 16: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs onto the field before the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field on October 16, 2022, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles – $8,300

The Philadelphia Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL. They are coming off their bye week and are facing their in-state rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are 2-5 and have looked anemic to be kind under rookie Kenny Pickett. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are currently 10.5-point home favorites. The writing is all over the wall in this matchup that Hurts and company will have their way with the TJ “Less” Watt Steelers’ defense.

Hurts is the highest-priced quarterback on the main slate in Week 8 at $8,300. I would argue that he is worth every penny of his price tag in this matchup with the Steelers’ secondary that has given up the third-most passing yards to quarterbacks. Hurts’ RunTheSims.com “Boom” rate is 59.9% this week, the highest of any player on the slate. With weapons like AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, along with Hurts’ dual-threat ability as a runner, his upside is slate-breaking. Play him in all GPP formats.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa takes the field before the game between the Pittsburg Steelers and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, October...

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins – $6,200

The Detroit Lions defense played better last week against the Cowboys, but they were coming off their bye week and facing Dak Prescott who was returning from an injury he suffered in Week 1 and truthfully did not look like himself. All that to say this secondary still sucks and this week will be heavily exploited by Tua Tagovailoa and his arsenal of elite wide receivers.

Tua returned from the concussion he suffered a few weeks back on Thursday Night Football against the Cincinnati Bengals, to pass for 261 and a touchdown last week. Now he has a Lions secondary that gives up 35 fantasy points to wide receivers on average per week. The Dolphins’ wide receivers aren’t average though. I love stacking an inexpensive Tau with either Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle or doubling-stacking them both. The total for this game is 50.5-points, the highest on the main slate.

Value – Quarterback

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones runs with the ball during the NFL Football match between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants on...

Daniel Jones, New York Giants – $5,700

Daniel Jones is quietly averaging 18-points per game is and the 10th leading scoring quarterback in DraftKings. This week he faces a Seattle Seahawks defense that ranks 22nd against quarterbacks, giving up, you guessed it, 18 points per game. Jones currently ranks third in quarterback rushing yards with 343 and his 5.9 average yards per carry ranks ahead of Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray. Just saying.

Jones passed the ball 30 times last week in a back-and-forth affair with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Giants’ opponent this week, the Geno Smith-led Seattle Seahawks are scoring 26.1 points per game, fifth best in the NFL. This game has a 45-point total and looks to be one of the best games of Week 8. Jones’s wheels and arm will both need to be on display this week if the Boys in Blue want to become the worst 7-1 team in NFL history.

High Priced – Running Back

Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans during player introductions before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Nissan Stadium on October 23,...

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans – $8,400

Josh Jacobs looked like Derrick Henry last week, rushing for 143 yards and three touchdowns against Henry’s opponent this week, the Houston Texans. You know he’s just licking his chops or doing push-ups with weights on his back or throwing a 50lbs ball really hard agaisnt a wall and catching it or something. Henry rushed 30 times for 128 yards last week. In the last four weeks, Henry has averaged 29 touches and 25.5 DraftKings points per game.

Henry is going to be chalky given this juicy matchup against a Texans defense that has given up 1044 total yards and eight total touchdowns on the year. On average that’s 32 points per game. Henry’s floor is safe and his upside is upwards of 30-points. In Henry we trust if we are going to pay up.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert flexes after his touchdown during the game between the Pittsburg Steelers and the Miami Dolphins on...

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins – $5,900

Raheem Mostert is averaging 19 touches per game since taking over as the starting running back for the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. He’s scored double-digit points in three of four games and has two 20-plus-point performances. Matt Harmon of Yahoo Fantasy and Reception Perception likes him this week as well. I mean who doesn’t with his matchup?

The Detroit Lions rank 30th in the NFL against running backs on the season. They have given up 10 rushing touchdowns and 940 total yards to running backs. Mostert’s 4.32 speed is a game-changer and just what we look for in a GPP value running back. The 50.5-point total is the largest on the main slate this week. Get the popcorn ready for this one and load up on Mostert.

Value – Running Back

Antonio Gibson of the Washington Commanders looks to avoid a tackle by Adrian Amos of the Green Bay Packers during the third quarter at FedExField on...

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders – $5,400

Bo McBrayer said it best.

We all saw it again in Week 7. Antonio Gibson racked up 16.7 DraftKings points off of 14 touches, good for 1.2 points per touch. Brian Robinson scored 10.6 DraftKings points on 22 touches, good for 0.48 points per touch. Washington should continue to use Gibson in the passing down roll this week against an Indianapolis Colts team that has given up over 1,000 total yards to running backs in seven games. Gibson is a GPP play for the GPP players.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings reacts after a catch during the first half against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on December 05, 2021 in...

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings – $9,100

Justin Jefferson is averaging 24.2 DraftKings points per game this season, good for third-highest at the wide position. He has three performances out of six games with 33-points or more and has scored double-digit points in five of six games. The floor is safe and the upside is through the roof. His $9,100 price tag should scare away some of the chalk, but he will still be popular.

Jefferson is averaging over 11 targets in his last three games and takes on an Arizona Cardinals defense that PFF ranks 29th overall. Their secondary consists of Marco Wilson and Byron Murphy Jr. who rank 102 and 60th out of 110 cornerbacks. Jefferson is going to have a field day. Two touchdowns are not out of the question and which means the Kirk Cousins stack is in play this week at $15,200. It’s my cohost at the Fantasy Millionaires Mike “Cash” Collins Diamond stack of the week. Adjust your ranks.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Wide receiver Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints reacts after a reception against the Arizona Cardinalsduring the NFL game at State Farm Stadium...

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints – $6,000

O, Michael Thomas, Michael Thomas, wherefore art thou Michael Thomas?

But soft! What light through yonder window breaks?
It is the east, and Chris Olave at $6,000 is the sun.

Arise, fair Olave, and kill the envious GPP bro lineup,
Who is already sick and pale with chalk,
That thou, her stack, art far more fair than the fields.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets runs a route during a game between the Denver Broncos and the New York Jets at Empower Field At Mile High on...

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets – $4,200

Last week the Jets’ offense was pathetic after Breece Hall went down with his season-ending ACL surgery. To be fair, Zach Wilson has struggled since returning from a pre-season injury this season. Garrett Wilson led all Jets’ wide receivers with five targets but only turned that into 6.4 DraftKings points against a stout Denver Broncos secondary.

This week the law firm of Wilson & Wilson takes on a New England Patriots defense that was just exposed by the Chicago Bears at home at Foxborough. Wilson should see an increased target share this week. Without Hall in the lineup I expect the Jets to showcase their other rookie offensive weapon in Wilson. His $4,200 is just way too cheap. I expect the sharps like Bo McBrayer to be all over him, so don’t be surprised he gets a little chalky.

High Priced – Tight End

Dallas Goedert of the Philadelphia Eagles makes the reception against Jordan Hicks of the Arizona Cardinals during the second quarter at State Farm...

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals – $5,100

Zach Ertz is the play this week against the Minnesota Vikings. Their defense ranks 26th in the NFL giving up over 15-points per game to tight ends. Ertz ranks third in the NFL with 55 tight end targets and is averaging 7.9 per game. The game has a total of 49 points which means that Ertz should see plenty of volume. I’m not overthinking this high-priced play this week.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Tyler Higbee of the Los Angeles Rams celebrates after making a catch for a touchdown with Kendall Blanton in the second quarter of the game against...

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams 49ers – $4,200

No one ever likes playing Tyler Higbee. But his 50 targets are fourth most at the tight end position and besides by the law of averages, the passes slings his way by Matthew Stafford can’t all be intercepted. Higbee is a middle-of-the-field volume guy who has the potential to catch a touchdown or three when you least expect or accept it. At only $4,200 he’s popping in RunTheSim.com tight-end models as a value play with the top ‘Boom’ rate.

Value – Tight End

Irv Smith Jr. #84 of the Minnesota Vikings stretches on the sidelines prior to an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium...

Irv Smith, Minnesota Vikings – $3,500

Fresh off their bye week, Irv Smith has a juicy matchup against an Arizona Cardinals defense that gives up 20-points to tight ends per game. Smith has been averaging over five targets per game in his last five games. He’s cheap at only $3,400 and can be played naked or stacked with Bo McBrayer’s favorite quarterback of all time Kirk Cousins. Make sure to tag him with your winning lineups.

Featured

Nimble GPP Plays to Get You Paid!

Welcome to NFL Week 7! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens warms up prior to the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on October 16, 2022 in East...

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – $8,000

Lamar Jackson played terribly last season against the Cleveland Browns, only scoring 14.4 points combined in two games. A stark contrast to the previous season when he scored six touchdowns against the Browns, good for 65.5 DraftKings points. So which Lamar should we expect agaisnt the Browns this year?

I’m predicting a huge bounce-back performance from Lamar Jackson this week! The Browns have looked terrible on defense this season, giving up 30 or more points in half of their games. This week they are 6.5-point road underdogs. I am expecting the Ravens to dominate the Browns on Sunday. My favorite way to approach this game is to stack Lamar Jackson with his tight end Mark Andrews and then run it back with Amari Cooper. Shhh. Don’t tell anyone.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals looks on prior to the game against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome on October 16, 2022 in New...

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,900

Joe Burrow was the top-scoring quarterback on DraftKings last week, accounting for four total touchdowns and passing for 300 yards during his slate-breaking performance. With Tee Higgins nursing an injury, Ja’Marr Chase was once again Burrow’s number-one target, collecting seven receptions for 132 yards and two touchdowns. We should have known when Burrow showed up to the New Orleans Super Dome in a Ja’Marr Chase LSU game-worn jersey that they were going to pop off.

This week Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are up against an Atlanta Falcons secondary that ranks 30 against wide receivers. They surrender over 40 points per game. Last week they gave up 48 points to Jimmy G. and the 49ers’ passing offense. Burrow and company are going to feast on PFF’s 49th and 84th-ranked cornerbacks Casey Hayward Jr. and A.J. Terrell. The Falcons have played well the past few weeks, but I expect the 6.5-point home-favorite Bengals to cover and put up points in the process.

Matt Ryan of the Indianapolis Colts passes against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 16, 2022 in...

Value – Quarterback

Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts – $5,400

A few weeks ago, Matt Ryan looked absolutely washed in his Thursday Night performance against Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos. He scored 6.1 points, which wasn’t his lowest output of the season. He only scored 1.8-points in Week 2 agaisnt the same Jacksonville Jaguars he faced on Sunday. So of course, right on cue, he drops three touchdowns, passes for 389 yards, and scores 27 DraftKings points in an impressive performance. Well played Matty Ice. I should never have doubted you.

This week Ryan and his wide receivers Michael Pittman, Paris Campbell, and Alec Pierce face a Tennessee Titans defense that ranks 28th agaisnt quarterbacks and 31st agaisnt wide receivers. Last week Ryan targeted wide receivers 34 times for 23 receptions, good for 240 yards and two touchdowns. Without Jonathan Taylor, in the lineup, the Colts offense has slowly shifted to a more pass-heavy focus. They are currently attempting the second most passing attempts per game through the first six games of the season. This is a trend that I expect to continue in this matchup with the Titans. Ryan might just be the nuts, again.

High Priced – Running Back

Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants runs the ball during the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills at MetLife Stadium on October 16, 2022 in...

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – $7,900

Saquon Barkley’s 141 touches are the most by any running back in the NFL. He’s currently only one point behind DraftKings leading running back scorer Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns. Barkley looks like his former self, seeing over 23 touches per game and averaging over 5YPC.

This week Saquon and the New York Giants face the Jacksonville Jaguars who give up 27 fantasy points to running backs per game. Opponents’ running backs have exploited the Jags for 808 total yards and five total touchdowns. Just two weeks ago they game up 172 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns for 40 points to the Philadelphia Eagles. Saquon is priced up $200 this week from $7,700 last week but he should still be a popular play given his volume and the positive matchup.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders runs the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on October 10, 2022 in Kansas...

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders – $6,500

Josh Jacobs might be the only offense that the Las Vegas Raiders have come Sunday’s tilt with the Houston Texans. Wide receiver Davante Adams is facing possible Leauge discipline after he was charged with a misdemeanor assault for shoving a sideline photographer to the ground on his way to the locker room. Darren Waller missed Week 5 with a hamstring injury.

Jacobs is averaging 21.8 touches and over 20-points per game. Coincidence? I think not. Volume has been king for Jacobs this season. Nothing should change this week when the Raiders face the Texans. They have given up 880 total yards and six touchdowns to running backs in only five games. Opposing running backs are scoring 30-points against them on the regular. Hopefully, Jacobs won’t be 40% rostered next week because he will be one of the most popular running back plays for Week 7. Much like with the Rhamondre chalk last week, sometimes you just have to eat it.

Value – Running Back

Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys runs the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 16, 2022 in Philadelphia,...

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys – $5,700

This week Tony Pollard and the Cowboys face the Detroit Lions and their absolutely terrible rotten horrible no good defense. The Lions are so bad that despite having a bye last week, they have still given up the most touchdowns (eight) to running backs on the season. Running backs have lit them up for at least 20 points in every game this season. They say that past performance is the best predictor of future results. I don’t think the Lions’ defense learned to tackle during the bye so this week we roll with Dallas Cowboys running backs.

While Ezekiel Elliott is still officially the lead running back, Tony Pollard has outscored him on the season in DraftKings points by one. Pollard is priced at $5,700, while Elliott is priced at $6,000. Pollard has seen twice the receiving volume and has the breakaway speed needed to take a long run to the house. Elliott has a more stable floor, but I love Pollard’s upside for GPP tournaments.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals warms up before the game against the Miami Dolphins at Paycor Stadium on September 29, 2022 in Cincinnati,...

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals – $8,200

Ja’Marr Chase put his afterburners into nitro last week and blew by the New Orleans Saints secondary on his way to the game-winning touchdown. It was just ridiculous to behold given the angle and acceleration displayed by Chase. He was not going to be denied. There’s just too much junkyard dog in him. This week he has a juicy matchup with a Falcon’s secondary that is old and slow. Despite beating the 49ers at home last week, they gave up 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns to wide receivers for a total of 48 points. I love this match-up for Chase and if he show’s up to this week’s game in a vintage game-worn Joe Burrow LSU jersey, shit is about to get wild!

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper of the Cleveland Browns catches a touchdown over Myles Bryant of the New England Patriots during the fourth quarter at FirstEnergy...

Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns – $6,100

Amari Cooper has been averaging 12 targets per game in the last two weeks. This is three more than his season average of nine per game. Why the increase you ask. Good question. The Browns are 1-4. They have lost three games in a row. This week they face a Baltimore Ravens defense that ranks 29th against wide receivers this season. They have given up 1189 receiving yards and seven touchdowns through six weeks.

The Browns are currently 6-point road underdogs in this matchup. The game script is just begging Amari Cooper to break out. The Browns should be playing catchup or engaged in a back-and-forth game with the high-scoring Lamar Jackson and company. Hell, they fired their defensive coordinator Joe Wood, always a good sign if you are a wide receiver on the team. GPP or bust!

Value – Wide Receiver 

Alec Pierce of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates a touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the fourth quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium on...

Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts – $4,600

Last week Alex Pierce finally showed up for the Indianapolis Colts, catching a last-minute touchdown pass from Matt Ryan to secure the victory over the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. The rookie will be brimming with confidence rolling into this week’s matchup with the Tennessee Titans. Despite being on a bye this past week, they still are tied for second worst in the NFL with eight touchdowns given up to wide receivers. They are giving up close to 45 points per game to the wide receiver position. I expect Matt Ryan to continue to feed Pierce this week. In all likelihood, he will be up against 5’11” 190lbs. Roger McCreary. Pierce has a four-inch height and a 20 lbs weight advantage so….adjust the ranks.

High Priced – Tight End

Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens celebrates with teammates after catching a pass for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the New York...

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $7,400

Mark Andrews has scored over 22.9 points in four of six games this season. He’s averaging 20.1 points per game and is second to only Travis Kelce this season at tight end points scored. No shocker, in games where Andrews has been targeted 10 times or more he scored 22.9 or more DraftKings points. The question then becomes, do we think that Andrews will be targeted 10 or more times? I do.

Andrews functions as the Baltimore Ravens WR1 with a 31.5% target share. He’s currently third behind only CeeDee Lamb at 32.4 and Cooper Kupp at 31.7. His $7,400 price tag is $600 less than Travis Kelce this week, who only has a 22% target share in the Chiefs’ offense. One never completely fades Kelce, but I am leaning toward Andrews in the pay-up tight end game this week.

Mid-Range – Tight End

San Francisco tight end George Kittle prepares to take a hit from Atlanta linebacker Rashaan Evans during the NFL game between the San Francisco...

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $5,300

George Kittle looked like George Kittle this past week against the Atlanta Falcons. He converted 10 targets into eight receptions for 83 yards and 16.3 DraftKings points. My partner at the Fantasy Millionaires, Mike “Cash” Collins (@TheRalphMacho on Twitter) loves Kittle’s matchup this week. PFF has him as a top 6 option as well. The 49ers will need to lean on him again this week if they have any chance of upsetting Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs’ defense has been susceptible to the old tight-end touchdowns this season, having given up four in six games. Kittle has yet to find the end zone in the four games he’s played. His target share bumped from 20% to 24% last week in a negative game script. TJ Hockenson’s $4,800 price should draw enough rostership to make Kittle a leverage play this week. Play him with quiet confidence.

Value – Tight End

Gerald Everett of the Los Angeles Chargers is brought down by Kareem Jackson of the Denver Broncos during the second quarter at SoFi Stadium on...

Gerald Everett, LA Chargers – $4,000

This play is super simple. The Seattle Seahawks rank dead last in the NFL against the tight end position, giving up 24-points per game, six more than the 31st-ranked team. Gerald Everett was targeted seven times last week by Justin Herbert and should be able to find room down the seem against this young defense. They have already conceded 32 receptions for 526 receiving yards and four touchdowns through six weeks. All good things, for Everett.

Featured

Nimble GPP Plays to Get You Paid!

Welcome to NFL Week 6! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Quarterback Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and wide receiver Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills look on together before playing against the Baltimore...

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $8,200

This just in, Josh Allen is Elite! The last time he faced the Kansas City Chiefs he threw for 329 passing yards, four touchdowns, and broke off 68 yards on the ground. He carved up the Chiefs last year like a Christmas ham, deliciously. We just saw what Derek Carr and Davante Adams did to this porous Chiefs secondary. They have given up a league-worst 12 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks and rank 27th in the NFL, giving up over 21 fantasy points per game.

Allen’s 16 total touchdowns,14 passing, and two rushing lead all NFL quarterbacks. He’s averaging over 32 points per game in a matchup that has a 53.5 total. Stacking Allen with Diggs or Gabe Davis gives you the greatest upside play in this matchup. The Chiefs have given up 7 touchdowns to wide receivers and over 800 receiving yards in five games. Allen is expensive at $8,200 but he’s still one of the top plays this week.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts on the sideline during the second half in the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium...

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,300

My co-host at the Fantasy Millionaires Mike “Cash” Collins believes that Tom Brady is going to come out like a man possessed in the next few weeks, raining down touchdowns in his angry wake. Tom Brady has been “Elite” all these years while also spending time being a family man. Now there’s nothing to stop him from truly dedicating himself to his one love in life, which has always been football.

Lining up across from our Hero this week are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who might be one of the worst football teams in the NFL this year. Their secondary ranks dead last in the NFL against the wide receiver position, giving up 48.8 points per game. On the season they’ve surrendered 9 touchdowns and over 1,100 receiving yards. Tom Brady is only priced up $300 to $6,300 this week. I’m double stacking him with Leonard Fournette and one of his wide receivers. Cha-ching!

Value – Quarterback

Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks walks off the field at half time against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome on October 09, 2022 in New...

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks – $5,700

If you would have told me that Geno Smith would be $5,700 on DraftKings in week 6 I would have said that sounds expensive to me. Now I’m foaming at the mouth to get him into as many lineups as I can after he’s exploded onto the scene this year. Who knew that Russell Wilson was holding back the Seattle Seahawks? Apparently, Pete Carroll did! Geno Smith has been a revolution. His deep ball is perfect, connecting twice last week with Tyler Lockett on 40-plus-yard touchdown throws. He’s the definition of En Fuego right now.

Tyler Lockett is only $5,600 this week which is insane. His rostership will be through the roof, obviously. But sometimes you need to eat the chalk to make a DFS lineup. The Geno/Lockett stack will be one of the most popular ones this week, but adding Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown as a run-back option should help break it up a bit. You could also pay up for DK Metcalf at $6,800 as well in this matchup. The total for this game is 51.5, the second-highest total this week. I’m going to be all over this game!

High Priced – Running Back

Saquon Barkley following the NFL match between New York Giant and Green Bay Packers at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on October 09, 2022 in London,...

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – $7,700

Saquon Barkley is averaging 24 opportunities and 22.3 DraftKings points per game. He’s basically scoring a point every time he touches the football. This week the Giants are 4.5-point home underdogs to Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, so he might be touching the football A LOT!!

If the Giants plan on controlling the clock and keeping Lamar off the field, they are going to need to feed Barkley. If they are trailing and need to play catchup, I love Saquon seeing increased opportunities in the passing game. Not to make it too simple, but all roads lead to Saquon this week for the Giants. At only $7,700, it might be the deal of the day at running back.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Rhamondre Stevenson of the New England Patriots runs past Jeff Okudah of the Detroit Lions during the first half at Gillette Stadium on October 09,...

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots – $6,000

Rhamondre Stevenson was unleashed last week by Bill Belichick, rushing for 161 yards on 25 carries, adding two receptions for a total of 27 touches. Stevenson scored his highest output of the season and his third 20-plus point performance in his last seven games. That’s actually impressive for a Patriots running back given the mercurial nature of Belichick’s running back by committee rotation history. Reports came out today from ProFootballTalk that “Damien Harris likely to miss multiple games with a hamstring injury.”

Stevenson should be in line for 20-25 touches again this week against a Cleveland Browns defense that let Austin Ekeler rush for 171 yards at a clip of 10.8 yards per carry. Yes, what you just read sounds absurd. It’s insanity. Stevenson is rushing for 5.5 yards per carry on the season, which means this is a matchup made in matchup heaven. Fingers crossed Belichick doesn’t decide to unleash Zappe. LOL!

Value – Running Back

Kenneth Walker III of the Seattle Seahawks looks back as he runs for a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome on October 09,...

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks – $5,400

Kenneth Walker III is the new starting running back for the Seattle Seahawks after Rashaad Penny fractured his fibula in last Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints. Walker III filled in admirably in the starting role, rushing for 88 yards on eight carries. His most impressive carry was his 69 touchdown scamper in the second half. He looked like he was shot out of a cannon.

Seahawk running backs are averaging 21.4 opportunities per game this season. Walker will split backfield touches with DeeJay Dallas but should see the bulk of the work. I am projecting him for 16-18 touches, including the passing down work. He’s a great pay-down option if you want to load up on high-priced stud wide receivers this week. The Cardinals have given up three passing and two rushing touchdowns to go along with over 500 total yards to running backs. Walker will be chalky, so stay frosty.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills celebrates a touchdown catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter at Highmark Stadium on...

Stefon Bills, Buffalo Bills – $8,400

Josh Allen and his traveling high-flying wide receiver circus are on the road this week at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. This is the marquee matchup of the Sunday slate and currently has a 54-point total. It was 53.5 when I started writing this article an hour ago. 80% of the bets are coming in on the Bills right now. Besides Allen, one of the main reasons the Bills have been successful this year has been Stefon Diggs.

Diggs is second in DraftKings fantasy points to only Cooper Kupp. He leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 5, is third in receptions with 39, and ranks 5th in receiving yards with 508. Lining up against him is normally, reliable cornerback, Rashad Fenton ranks 62nd out of 102 defensive backs according to PFF. His coverage grade of 58.8 is the worst of his career. I’m sure playing against Davante Adams twice a year is fun. Out of the frying pan and into the furnace this week against Diggs. I expect him to bounce back big from his poor playoff performance last year in the Divisional round game where he had three receptions for seven yards. Fade him at your own risk this week.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett spikes the ball to celebrate his touchdown reception early in the fourth quarter during the football...

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks – $5,600

Tyler Lockett has scored the eighth most DraftKings points for wide receivers this season and is the 21st most expensive wide receiver this week. Once again I’m questioning the sanity of the DraftKings algorithm. He should be priced up to $6,500 at least. Instead, he is priced at $5,600. I honestly think they made a mistake and we’re too proud to admit it and now they’re just going to roll it out there like that and let us feast upon him.

The problem is every time you look up Lockett is catching a 40-yard touchdown bomb from Geno Smith. I don’t make the rules Kidz this is just what’s happening right now. He scored over 14 DraftKings points in four of 5 weeks this season, including 22.7 and 30.4 point performances. I’m just going to cash in while I can and ride Lockett to money in my pocket. He might have a 69% rostership this week, so make sure that you stack him for maximum upside.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Khalil Shakir of the Buffalo Bills scores a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter at Highmark Stadium on October 09,...

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills – $3,700

Tip of the cap to my cohost on the Nimble DFS Chalk Blocked show Bo McBrayer AKA @Bo_McBigTime on Twitter, who called Khalil Shakir’s breakout game last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. With Isaiah McKenzie still in the NFL’s concussion protocol, he shined in the slot receiver role, catching three of five passes for 60 yards and a touchdown. Well down all around.

What’s not to love about running it back at only $3,700 this week? Shakir should continue to see an increased role in the offense after last week’s performance, McKenzie or no McKenzie. Not to beat a dead horse in this article, but the 54-point total just jumped to 69 points for goodness’ sake people! Play the man!!

High Priced – Tight End

Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after a touchdown during the 2nd half of the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Arrowhead...

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – $7,800

Travis Kelce is “Lock and Load”this week at only $7,800. No, he’s not going to score four touchdowns sorry to say. Last year in their Divisional Round matchup against the Bills, Kelce caught eight balls for 96 yards and a touchdown. Good for around 20 DraftKings fantasy points. So far this season he’s been the number one tight end averaging 4.2 more points per game than Mark Andrews. He’s first in receptions with 33 and touchdowns with seven and he’s second in receiving yards to Andrews by only two yards.

No one can stop Kelce right now. He’s caught 16 of the last 18 passes Mahomes has thrown his way. He was four for four in his red-zone opportunities last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. I expect him to see another 10 targets this week including multiple red-zone opportunities in a game script that should keep him involved all game long. I’m not expecting a 78-point outburst like last January’s Divisional Round matchup, but this game is going to fuck, just make sure it’s not you and play Kelce.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Tyler Higbee of the Los Angeles Rams takes the field during player introductions against the Dallas Cowboys at SoFi Stadium on October 09, 2022 in...

Tyler Higbee, LA Rams – $4,600

I’m partial to Tyler Higbee after he caught three touchdowns in Week 2 of the 2020 season, helping me score 251.6 points and win $5,000 on DraftKings. With that being said, he has quietly been one of the most consistently performing tight ends all season long. Higbee scored at least 10 DraftKings points in four of five matchups this season. He’s seen a Cooper Kupp-like target share the last two weeks as the Rams’ offensive line has struggled to protect Matthew Stafford, forcing him to settle for short passes underneath to Higbee.

His 24 targets in the last two weeks are probably not sustainable long-term, but he should see plenty of work this week against a Carolina Panthers defense that can get after the quarterback. According to PFF, Higbee has a top-five matchup this week against linebacker Cory Littleton. Expect the Rams to take advantage of this mismatch and pepper him with 8 to 10 targets. I’m predicting he catches his first touchdown so now you know you have to play him at only $4,600.

Value – Tight End

David Njoku of the Cleveland Browns celebrates after a play during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at FirstEnergy Stadium on...

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns – $4,000

It’s David Njoku SZN!! In his last three games, he’s averaging just under eight targets and 16.5 DraftKings points per game. He’s also been consistent, scoring over 10 points in three straight games after getting off to a slow start through the first two weeks of the season.

The New England Patriots have given up five receiving touchdowns to tight ends in five games this season. Njoku has only one receiving touchdown on the season, but he has an excellent chance this week to add to his total. When I’m not playing Kelce, I’m paying down for him and loading up with high-priced wide receivers and running backs.

Featured

Nimble GPP Plays to Get You Paid!

Welcome to NFL Week 5! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles walks onto the field prior to the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lincoln Financial Field on October...

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles – $8,100

Jalen Hurts had a down Week 4, only scoring 17 DraftKings points. The weather in Philadelphia was absolutely terrible with monsoon-like rain and wind gusts swirling along with an invigorated Jacksonville defense. Despite a poor overall performance he rushed for a touchdown and he currently leads all quarterbacks with four through four games.

The Arizona Cardinals are not a very good football team. According to PFF, their defense currently ranks 32. Since there are only 32 teams and it’s not opposite day, they are royally fucked this week when Hurts and the undefeated Eagles soar into the desert. Hurts stacked with A.J. Brown is my cohost at the Fantasy Millionaires, Mike “Cash” Collins favorite pay-up stack of the week. It might secretly be mine too. Don’t tell him.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Quarterback Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers attempts a pass during the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at SoFi Stadium on...

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – $7,100

Last week I told you to stack Justin Herbert with Austin Ekeler. The two combined for 59 points, just like I predicted. Apparently, the DraftKings algorithm did not read my article or watch Justin Herbert’s performance last week against the Houston Texans. I mean, I get it. There’s no Keenan Allen and Herbert hasn’t been dominant yet this season, but still.

Herbert has scored over 23 DraftKings points in three of four performances this year. The addition of free agent tight end Gerald Everett has been a huge upgrade over aging Jared Cook last year. Head coach Brandon Staley called Allen “day-to-day” on Monday, and so his status for Sunday remains unclear. If Allen returns, I will be above the field on Herbert shares.

Value – Quarterback

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quarterback Tom Brady yells to the home crowd before the regular season game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay...

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,000

I can’t believe that Tom Brady is priced down at only $6,000 this week on DraftKings. I thought it was a typo and it was actually $6,900 but then after I blinked a few times I realized that maybe DraftKings felt bad for Tom after the news of Gisele leaving him broke. Maybe they were trying to throw him and also us players a proverbial bone. Whatever the reason, I’m scarfing down this min-priced Brady. I love stacking them this week with Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. You can even get cute and creative and stack him with Leonard Fournette or Rachaad White. Balls will be thrown this week. Brady is down, but not out, and I literally expect him to throw himself into his work with week.

High Priced – Running Back

Cleveland running back Nick Chubb runs for a second-half touchdown during the NFL game between the Cleveland Browns and the Atlanta Falcons on...

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – $8,000

Nick Chubb is averaging 23 DraftKings points per game and is only priced at $8,000. This makes no sense. He is going to run the football all day long. He’s good for a touchdown every single week and he’s a plug-and-play value at this point. On the season the Chargers have given up 619 yards and five total touchdowns to the running back position. On average they give up around 30 points per game. Last week Dameon Pierce averaged 9.4 yards-per-carry, rushed for 131 yards, and scored 28.9 DraftKings points. Dameon Pierce is no Nick Chubb.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce evaded a tackle by Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. During the NFL game between the Los...

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans – $6,200

Speaking of Dameon Pierce, last week he finally burst onto the NFL scene with a 75-yard touchdown run, carving up the Los Angeles Chargers defense like a turkey on Thanksgiving. What was most impressive was his 20 total opportunities including six targets and six receptions. All of us did come in a furious comeback time, but that’s the best part about the Houston Texans is it their defense is terrible, so they’ll be in a furious hurry-up comeback mode all season long. Pierce is priced up this week but I still love his matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars who just made miles Sanders look like Saquon Barkley, giving up 134 yards and two touchdowns. It’s officially Pierce season!

Value – Running Back

Eric Stokes of the Green Bay Packers knocks Damien Harris of the New England Patriots out of bounds during the first quarter at Lambeau Field on...

Dameon Harris, New England Patriots– $5,600

Nobody knows who the starting quarterback is going to be for the New England Patriots next week. We do know that the Detroit Lions give up 30-plus points per game to opposing running backs and are ranked 31st in the NFL. Last week Rashaad penny cashed in with two rushing touchdowns and 151 yards rushing. Last week the Patriots ran the ball 32 times. Damien Harris saw 18 of those carries to Rhamondre Steveson’s 14. Harris also scored a touchdown and 15 DraftKings points to Steveson’s 12. I like both Patriots running backs this week so pick your poison in this juicy matchup.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver AJ Brown celebrates during the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Philadelphia Eagles on October 02,...

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia – $7,500

AJ Brown is averaging over 100 yards receiving, 9.5 targets, and most importantly, 18.6 DraftKings points per game.  According to PFF, Brown has the best cornerback matchups this week. There’s nothing better than a score of 100. RunTheSims also has Brown as a top 5 wide receiver this week. 

Brown has only scored one touchdown on the season, after getting a touchdown called back from a sketchy offensive pass interference call on Dallas Goedert. The Cardinals’ cornerbacks are no match for the physicality Brown will bring them on Sunday. Marco Wilson, PFF’s 101st /105th, and Byron Murphy Jr., PFF’s 49th/105 cornerbacks both give up 35lbs. and four inches in height to Brown. Brown is my “LOCK OF THE WEEK”! 

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receiver Mike Evans flips the ball into the stands during the regular season game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the...

Mike Evans, Tampa Buccaneers – $6,900

Mike Evans is averaging 20 DraftKings points per game he’s currently the seventh highest scoring wide receiver and is being priced as the tenth highest. He Scored 33 DraftKings points last week after catching eight receptions for 103 yards and two touchdowns. He’s Tom Brady’s favorite target in any zone and should see plenty of volume in this high-scoring affair. The Atlanta Falcons are averaging 25.8 points scored per game. which means this game has the potential to shoot. Currently, the total over-under is 48 points, With the Buccaneers being favored by 8.5 points at home.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Rondale Moore of the Arizona Cardinals runs the ball after making a catch during a football game between the Carolina Panthers and the Arizona...

Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals – $4,100

Rondale Moore made his season debut last week and had an 86% snap share, ran 33 routes on 35 Kyler Murray dropbacks, and had a 10.4-yard average depth of target. All those stats from Adam Levitan from Establish the Run.

In Week 5, Moore and the Arizona Cardinals face off against Jalen Hurts and the Philadephia Eagles, the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL. They are currently five-point home underdogs. This game script has a pass-heavy Kyler comeback narrative written all over it! At only $4,100, Moore is the pay-down lotto ticket that actually has slate-breaking upside. He should see more than five targets this week as Greg Dortch is further fazed out of the offense.

High Priced – Tight End

Hockenson of the Detroit Lions misses a tackle by Josh Jones of the Seattle Seahawks during the second half of the game at Ford Field on October 02,...

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions – $4,900

T.J. Hockenson is going to have so many babies named after him in nine months after he more than likely impregnated anyone lucky enough to be in attendance at Ford Field on Sunday. Hell, I peed on a stick after watching the highlights just to make sure I was in the clear.

I’m not expecting a repeat performance, nor am I chasing points. That’s a tremendous weekly DFS podcast from my guys over at Fantasy Points, led by Graham Barfield and Scott Barrett! The Lions’ opponents in Week 5, the New England Patriots have given up 5 touchdowns to tight ends through four games this season. That’s bad for them and great for us! Wheels up.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Pat Freiermuth of the Pittsburgh Steelers reacts after catching a pass against the Chicago Bears during the second half at Heinz Field on November 8,...

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers – $4,100

Pat Freiermuth has quietly scored over 12 DraftKings points in three or four games so far. This week he’s priced at $4,100 and faces a Buffalo Bills defense that is good. Kenny Pickett is going to be under duress all game long and I expect him to look for Pat Freiermuth in the middle of the field like he did last week against the Jets. He was targeted a game-high nine times for an insane 35% target share. Look for Pickett to continue to lean on Freiermuth as he gains his bearings in the NFL. He’s a target monster with a red-zone touchdown upside.

Value – Tight End

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots – $2,900

Tip of the cap to my cohost on Chalk Blocked, the world’s sexiest DFS Show, for now, Bo McBrayer for pointing out the glaringly obvious. Hunter Henry is the only game in Patriots town at the tight end position this week. Jonnu Smith is OUT and so might be Max Jones. If Zappe is under center expect Henry to see an increased role in the passing games. I’m rolling with Henry as a pay down with pay off written all over him!!

Featured

Nimble GPP Plays to Get You Paid!

Welcome to NFL Week 4! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens carries the ball against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on September 25, 2022 in Foxborough,...

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – $8,300

Lamar Jackson currently leads all DraftKings scores with 113 points. He’s averaging 37.8 points per game. What’s been most impressive is what he’s done through the air. His 10 passing touchdowns lead the NFL. He’s also added two rushing touchdowns, giving him a total of 12. This week Lamar Jackson faces Josh Allen and the high-flying Buffalo Bills offense. The 52-point total is the highest on the board this week and I think the game shoots the over.

Last week the Baltimore Ravens defense gave up 30 points to Mac Jones. Josh Allen is not Mac Jones. Lamar Jackson is going to need to throw three touchdowns and rushed for two more touchdowns just to keep his team in the game. The Bills are banged up a corner which is great news for Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay. I love stacking Lamar with one of his wide receivers or with Mark Andrews. A double stack is not out of the question at all.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers attempts a pass during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at SoFi Stadium on September 25,...

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – $7,100

The Houston Texans’ secondary is bad. Their starting cornerbacks, Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson rank 92nd and 60th, respectively out of 102. That’s not good. They have only given up one touchdown pass, but to be fair they had Alec Pierce drop a touchdown on them back in Week 1, and have faced a “cookless” Russell Wilson and the hapless Chicago Bears. Despite his broken rib cartilage, Herbert passed the ball 45 times last week in the loss to the Jaguars.

I am not worried about his health in this matchup and there’s a chance that Keenan Allen might be back as well. I expect Austin Ekeler to be heavily involved in the passing attack in this matchup. Ekeler currently leads all NFL running backs with 22 targets and 21 receptions. The Houston Texans are terrible agaisnt the running back, already giving up 92 yards in three games. All signs point to the Chargers and Herbert getting right against the Texans.

Value – Quarterback

Darrell Taylor of the Seattle Seahawks prepares to tackle Marcus Mariota of the Atlanta Falcons during the second half of the game at Lumen Field on...

Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons – $5,600

Last week Marcus Mariota was my value quarterback at $5,500. This week DraftKings has priced him up $100 to $5,600. According to RunTheSims.com his baseline projection for Week 4 is 20 points, or close to 4xing his value. The Falcons currently ranked ninth in points scored per game with 26.7.

The Browns on the other hand have given up seven total touchdowns to quarterbacks, including two rushing touchdowns. Mariota has a rushing touchdown in two out of three games so far this season. Mariota is a very safe play with tons of upside in a game with a 50-point total with two defenses that have been mediocre so far. He could pay off big this game shoots.

High Priced – Running Back

Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants scores a 36 yard touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the third quarter in the game at MetLife Stadium...

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – $8,000

Saquon is back and he looks electric! Consider his Week 4 price of $8,000 price a sweet Monday night discount. The DraftKings price gremlins hedged their bets and lost this one. Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffery, and Derrick Henry are all hundreds of dollars more expensive this week. Barkley is second to only Nick Chubb in DraftKings points at the running back position, and only by 0.1.

He currently leads all NFL running backs with 409 total yards. He’s averaging five targets per game and six yards per carry. The Giants are playing the Chicago Bears in Week 4. They just gave up 101 total yards to Houston Texans’ rookie running back Dameon Pierce. Barkley has seen 68 opportunities through the first three games of the season and should see 22-25 touches in this matchup.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Detroit Lions Running Back Jamaal Williams celebrates a touchdown during the NFL game between the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings on...

Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions – $6,100

D’Andre Swift is banged up and is most likely going to miss some time with sprained shoulder according to a Tom Pelissero report on Twitter. Even before the injury, Jamaal Williams was holding his own in the Lions backfield. He’s the Lions’ primary goal-line back and is tied for the NFL league lead with four rushing touchdowns.

 According to the Detroit Free Press, if Swift misses time, Williams will likely split the backfield load with Craig Reynolds and Justin Jackson. I expect Williams to serve as the starter, with Reynolds jumping into the PPR role. The Seattle Seahawks, have given up 502 total yards and two touchdowns to running backs through the first three weeks. Williams should be a smash play!

Value – Running Back

Khalil Herbert of the Chicago Bears rushes for a first down in the fourth quarter against Steven Nelson of the Houston Texans at Soldier Field on...

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears – $5,700

After last week’s explosive performance filling in for the injured David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert isn’t sneaking up on anyone this week in DSF. His juicy cheap price will make him a chalky pay-down option. I’m not worried unless we get into the 30% rostership zone.

The Bears’ run-heavy attack will keep Herbert busy agaisnt a New York Giants defense that just gave up 178 yards rushing to a depleted Dallas Cowboys offensive line. In the young season, the Giants have already surrendered 469 total yards and three touchdowns to running backs. The Bears running backs are averaging 28.7 touches per game. Herbert is averaging 7.3 yards per carry and his 240 rushing yards rank 6th best in the NFL. Adjust the ranks.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Michael Pittman Jr. #11 of the Indianapolis Colts during player introductions before the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Lucas Oil Stadium on...

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts – $7,200

Michael Pittman is averaging 21 DraftKings points per game this season. Matt Ryan’s affinity for Pittman is growing too. Last week he targeted him on 25% of his dropbacks. He turned his whopping 53% wide receiver target share into eight receptions good for 72 yards. He’s only found the endzone once, in Week 1 against the Houston Texans. According to PFF this week Pittman has the second-best cornerback matchup. Cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary both measure in at 5’11” and weigh under 200lbs.

Pittman on the other hand stands 6’4” and weighs 220lbs. The size mismatch represents a clear advantage for the Colts to exploit downfield and in the red-zone. I expect Pittman to see 8-10 targets, including 1-2 down by the goal-line. At $7,200, Pittman is priced up coming off of a down performance, so hopefully, that scares folks off of him and his chalk isn’t through the freaking roof.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson of the Pittsburgh Steelers makes a catch during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium on September...

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,000

Diontae Johnson is averaging 11 targets per game this season, But only 14.6 DraftKings points per game. That’s all going to change this week when he faces the New York Jets. I’m predicting a two-touchdown breakout performance for Diontae Johnson. The Jets have already given up 466 receiving yards to wide receivers as well as six touchdowns. They give up two touchdowns per game to wide receivers on average.

The Jets’ safeties imparticular are a huge liability. Lamarcus Joyner has a PFF grade of 29.9, good for 75th of 76. Jordan Whitehead, the pillar of the group ranks 65th. If Johnson gets behind the defense, who for some reason still is playing man coverage, he will find paydirt. Shhh. This little secret is just ours.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Baltimore Ravens Devin Duvernay catches a 4-yard touchdown reception beating New England Patriots Myles Bryant. The Ravens beat the Patriots 37-26.

Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens – $4,100

Devin Duvernay is a touchdown Ninja. He has eight targets this season, eight receptions, and three touchdowns. He is one touchdown behind Stefon Diggs for the NFL lead. He’s also one point behind his teammate Rashod Bateman in DraftKings points. And he’s only $4,100 in a game with a 52-point total that has the potential to shoot into the 60s. Lamar is looking for him in the red zone as well.

I love stacking Lamar with Duvernay and running it back with Stefon Diggs or Gabriel Davis. We know this game is going to shoot and touchdowns are going to be scored through the air. Lamar Jackson leads the league with 10 passing touchdowns. If you don’t play Duvernay you don’t deserve to win.

High Priced – Tight End

Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews was wide open and makes a one-handed catch. The New England Patriots lost to the Ravens, 37-26.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $7,100

Mark Andrews is the WR1 on the Baltimore Ravens and we have always known that. His $7,100 price tag is a bargain given his role in the Ravens’ offense though. Did you know that? For a bit of perspective, he leads all NFL tight ends with 31 targets, 22 receptions, 240 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. With back-to-back 28-point DraftKings performances and a 52-point game total against the Buffalo Bills, all systems point to blast off for Andrews.

His floor is safe and his ceiling is close to 10 points higher than any other tight end this week. If you are paying up for Andrews, you should stack him with Lamar Jackson to maximize your leverage. I also like adding Devin Duvernay and running the game stack back with a few of the Buffalo Bills’ weapons.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons carries the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Lumen Field on September 25, 2022 in...

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – $5,000

Kyle Pitts truthers have had a rough first few weeks of the NFL season, Bo McBigTime and Mike “Cash” Collins especially. I hope they can finally take a deep breath and relax. Last week Pitts finally came to fantasy life, turning his eight targets into five receptions for 87 yards and 13.7 DraftKings points.

The head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, Arthur Smith came out and said “the ball will find him” and it did. I expect the ball to keep finding Pitts this week in a potentially high-scoring matchup with the Cleveland Browns. The game has a 50-point total and the Falcons are home underdogs. There will be targets and I predict that Pitts will catch his first career NFL touchdown in America. Punch those prop tickets boys!!

Value – Tight End

Tyler Conklin of the New York Jets runs with the ball after a catch against the Cincinnati Bengals at MetLife Stadium on September 25, 2022 in East...

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets – $3,600

Tyler Conklin is the third-highest scoring tight end through the first three weeks of the NFL season. And it’s not like he had one explosive game and two duds, he has been consistent, scoring over 10 points all three games. This week, he faces a Steelers defense that was just bludgeoned by David Njoku for nine receptions, 90 receiving yards, and a touchdown.

Conklin is tied for third in tight end targets with Travis Kelce with 24. With games of seven, nine, and eight targets, the floor is safe and the upside is sky high. The Jets are road underdogs, so you know Flacco will be adding to his league-leading 155 passing attempts. He’s averaging an unholy 51.6 attempts per game. Enjoy the free money.

Featured

Nimble GPP Plays to Get You Paid!

Welcome to NFL Week 3! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles looks on against the Minnesota Vikings at Lincoln Financial Field on September 19, 2022 in Philadelphia,...

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles – $7,600

Jalen Hurts is a beast! He currently is the NFL’s eleventh leading rusher and ranks second in rushing touchdowns with three. He’s also passed for over 550 yards and has a completion percentage of 69%! His RunTheSims.com boom rate is over 66%. The Washington Commanders have historically struggled to contain rushing quarterbacks and their current group of linebackers might be their worst in decades. Jalen Hurts could rush for over 75 yards in this matchup in the first half. I love playing him naked or stacking him with A.J. Brown. He’s currently being rostered at 9%, which is behind only Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford looks at the jumbotron during an NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Rams on...

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – $6,500

Matthew Stafford rebounded in week 2 scoring over 20 points after a disappointing season opener against the  Buffalo Bills. The Cardinals on the other hand rank 32nd against quarterbacks, giving up over 26 points per game. They have surrendered 612 passing yards and seven touchdowns, with no interceptions. Stafford has three different stacking options this week. Cooper Kupp is priced up at $9,900, Allen Robinson at $5,700, and Tyler Higbee down at $4,500. Kupp is the Rolls-Royce stack with the most explosive upside. He saw 28 targets in two games last season. I’m comfortable stacking them all but prefer Kupp at the points per dollar value.

Value – Quarterback

Atlanta Falcons Marcus Mariota in action, throws the football vs. Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium Inglewood, CA 9/18/2022 CREDIT: John W. McDonough

Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons – $5,500

Bo McBrayer from FantasyPros loves Marcus Mariota this week in a double stack with Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Marcus Mariota is the 12th highest scoring DraftKings quarterback through 2 weeks with 37 points. At only, $5,500 he’s a tremendous pay-down value who has rushing opportunities with goal-line carry upside. If he can finally connect with Pitts, the stack could pay off in a big way. I’m also completely comfortable running Mariota out naked and paying up at running back or wide receiver this week.

High Priced – Running Back

Cincinnati Bengals Joe Mixon in action, catches the ball vs. Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Arlington, TX 9/18/2022 CREDIT: Greg Nelson

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals – $7,600

Joe Mixon is averaging 30 opportunities per game through the first two weeks of the season. Mixon is fourth in the NFL with 13 running back targets as well. The Bengals are 0-2 and on the road this week in New York to face the Jets. I can see Zac Taylor using Mixon to control the clock and slow the game down to make sure that the Bangles come out with a victory. I can easily see Mixon rushing for over 100 yards (and the bonus) and scoring a touchdown or two. All while adding 4-5 receptions and 30 yards out of the backfield. Currently, he’s picking up 14% rostership, which is the fourth highest on the slate.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Tampa Bay Buccaneers runningback Leonard Fournette carries the ball during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-New Orleans Saints regular season game on...

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,500

Leonard Fournette is still the only game in town for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week when they face Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Mike Evans is suspended, Chris Godwin is OUT, they were so desperate they signed Cole Beasley to the practice squad.  Leonard Fournette is going to eat in this matchup he underperform last week and has been priced down $200 to $6,500. According to RunTheSims.com Fournette’s boom rate is over 63%. He’s one of the best plays on the board and should see 25 touches again in this matchup. Tom Brady knows the best way to win is to feed Fournette while the rest of his team heals up.

Value – Running Back

Philadelphia Eagles Running Back Miles Sanders carries the ball in the first quarter during the game between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia...

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles – $5,500

Miles Sanders is averaging 17.5 opportunities per game. While the Washington Commanders on the other hand have given up 310 total yards and three touchdowns to running backs through the first two games of the season. Travis Etienne dropped a walk-in touchdown and Trevor Lawrence failed to hit him on another potential touchdown, so those numbers are actually pretty light. The Commander’s linebacking corps is barely that. Once Miles Sanders breaks through the line, to the second level he should have the opportunity to turn basic runs into huge plays. I would not be surprised to see him go for a long touchdown in this game over 50 yards. If I’m paying down at running back I’ll take all the Miles Sanders. Yes. Yes. Yes. I can’t believe I’m saying this as well.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills on the field before a game against the Tennessee Titans at Highmark Stadium on September 19, 2022 in Orchard Park,...

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills – $7,700

Stefon Diggs is the number one scoring player in DraftKings through two weeks and he’s price down at $7,700. He’s $2,200 cheaper than Cooper Kupp and he’s scored seven more DraftKings points so far through two weeks. Yes. Time is a flat circle. Adjust the ranks and be thankful that the oddsmakers over at the DraftKings haven’t yet caught on to the fact that Stefon Diggs should be priced at around $8,800 every single week. Diggs is third in the NFL in receptions with 20. He is second in receiving yards with 270, behind only Tyreek Hill. And he has four touchdowns, which leads the league. Stefon Diggs to the f****** Moon!

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals passes the ball to Tee Higgins for a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the fourth quarter at AT&T...

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,100

Tee Higgins is back! And so are the New York Jets and their sucky secondary. They’ve already given up 239 yards and four touchdowns to wide receivers in the first 2 weeks. Higgins saw 10 targets last week which converted into six catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. At $6,100, he is $2,000 cheaper than Ja’Marr Chase this week. He’s a great value if you’re stacking either Joe Burrow or using him in a runback stack with a Joe Flacco/Jets receiver stack. Higgins and Burrow is my co-host at the fantasy millionaires, Mike “Cash” Collins’s, favorite stack of the week. I personally love running it back with either Elijah Moore or Garrett Wilson in a game you know the Jets are going to have to pass the ball. Bombs away!

Value – Wide Receiver 

Curtis Samuel of the Washington Commanders catches a touchdown against DeShon Elliott of the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on September 18, 2022 in...

Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders – $5,100

Curtis Samuel is my value wide receiver for the third straight week. Next week he might be my mid-range wide receiver as he’s been priced up now to $5,100, which is the very edge of the value wide receiver category if I’m being honest. And I’m always being honest with DFS. Samuel is the WR1 on a Washington Commanders offense that already has seven passing touchdowns and has targeted the wide receivers extensively in the passing game. Samuel leads the team in targets with 20, receptions 15, receiving yards 133, and in DraftKings points with 43.1. Washington is a six-point home underdog with a game script ripe for a late touchdown pass to Samuel to push him over the 20-point mark and another 4x. 

High Priced – Tight End

Baltimore Ravens Mark Andrews in action, runs on the field vs. Miami Dolphins at MT Bank Stadium. Baltimore, MD 9/18/2022 CREDIT: Simon Bruty

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $6,900

This week Mark Andrews is priced at $6,900. Insert “nooice” meme right here. Travis Kelce is $1,000 more expensive at $7,900 when their stat lines are Basically carbon copies of each other. The Ravens are going to need to throw the football in this game against the Patriots. I expect Bill Belichick to try to take away Lamar Jackson’s abilities to roam outside the pocket, making Mark Andrews an even greater threat. I expect him to get upwards of ten Targets in this matchup and should score you between 18 and 20 points. I feel like his floor is safe and you save yourself $1,000.

Mid-Range – Tight End

During the Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts makes a catch on Los Angeles Rams cornerback Troy Hill during an NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons...

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – $4,800

Kyle Pitts is priced at $4,800 this week on DraftKings, making him one of the most interesting plays at tight end. Pitts has done nothing, absolutely positively unequivocally nothing so far this year. But we know there’s untapped potential and we also know that eventually Mariota will find him and there will be a touchdown scored and all the Earth Will Rejoice. The question is will it be this week. I think it will be. Seattle has struggled against the tight end. Look what washed Russell Wilson did to them in week one. Now Kyle Pitts has a chance to redeem himself and cash it in for you at a tremendous value. Fingers crossed he catches his first NFL touchdown in America this weekend.

Value – Tight End

Gerald Everett of the Los Angeles Chargers runs the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on September 15, 2022 in...

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers– $4,400

Gerald Everett has finally recovered from being winded and looking for his mouthguard. Last week was 10 long days ago and I’m not worried about any carryover or hangover between him and Justin Herbert. At $4,400, Everett is a value in this high total game that should see the Los Angeles Chargers score up words of 27 points. I’m comfortable rolling with him at his $4,400 price tag this week only if I’m stacking him with Justin Herbert. I don’t want to play him naked.

Featured

Nimble GPP Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 2! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Rashod Bateman and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens celebrate after a touchdown during the game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on...

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – $7,400

Lamar Jackson is the best play at quarterback this week. He’s currently the sixth most roster quarterback at 7%. I love it and so should you if you would like winning money, and I think most of you do. Unless you’re Bo and you play me head-to-head each week then you lose and you still like it,  but I digress. I’m stacking Lamar Jackson with Mark Andrews and running it back with Tyreek Hill this week. This is one of my favorite pay-up stacks of the week. The high price should drive people away and allow you to differentiate your builds.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Quarterback Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams throws a pass during the fourth quarter of the NFL game against the Buffalo Bills at SoFi...

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – $6,300

According to RunTheSims.com, Matthew Stafford is the most rostered quarterback on the DraftKings Main Slate. The Atlanta Falcons defense will do that to you. Last week they propped Jameis Winston up for 21.66 DraftKings points. Stafford is coming off of 10 days rest and should be healthier and more in sync with Allen Robinson this week. Cooper Kupp is $9,900, making Robinson at $5,500 the second most popular play this week. Pay-up or value, Stafford is in play this week and should score 22-24 points. He’s most effective in the stack and should not be played naked. I mean should any of us?

Value – Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins throws a pass against the New England Patriots during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium on September 11, 2022...

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins – $5,600

If I’m not playing Lamar Jackson, I’m playing Tua Tagovailoa. In a game you know there’s going to be a high-volume passing upside, he has Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill and Mike Gesicki and Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert and opportunity through the roof for an underpriced top-15 quarterback this week. Keep pricing guys like it’s last week instead of like it’s this week and I’ll take it every time. Tua is a potential Milly Maker winner, let me put it that way. The Ravens are likely going to be playing rookies Jalyn Armour-Davis and Pepe Williams after Kyle Fuller tore his ACL in Week 1, Marlon Humphrey was limited in practice and Marcus Peters’s status is still up in the air. All signs point to an over!

High Priced – Running Back

Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on...

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts – $9,900

According to RunTheSims.com, Jonathan Taylor has the highest ceiling of any running back on the Week 2 DraftKings Main Slate. Last week the Jaguars gave up 130 total yards to Antonio Gibson, good for 20 DraftKings points. All good things if you are Taylor who saw 38 opportunities in Week 1. Michael Pittman is probably OUT this week after missing practice on both Thursday and Friday. Taylor is going to eat all game long. At only 10% rostership, I will be above the field on him this week in my GPP builds.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Tom Brady and Leonard Fournette of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are seen on the field during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on...

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,700

Leonard Fournette is the Tampa Bay Bucs offense right now. Mike Evans is banged up, Julio Jones as well, hell Chris Godwin is OUT this week already and it’s only Friday. Fournette practiced today and yesterday and he’s a full send. He’s the best player on the board at only $6,700. I’ll be head over the field with Lenny. I want to run around in a field of my little Lenny lineups. The Saints owned Tom Brady as a Buccaneer the last two years. Brady has thrown six touchdowns to 8 interceptions. He’s even come out and said that he’s not his old self and this offense is going to be different and that difference is Fournette.

Value – Running Back

Trey Lance of the San Francisco 49ers shovel passes the ball to Jeff Wilson Jr. #22 against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 11, 2022...

Jeff Wilson, San Francisco 49ers – $5,100

Jeff Wilson Jr. is Bo McBrayer’s breakout back of the week. His DFS darling. His creme-de-la-creme of low-priced value running backs with the potential to score two touchdowns and run for a buck twenty-five, while catching three passes for 40 yards. I love that we are getting a high-volume running offense with a low-priced back who should see the goal-line work. We know he’s going to see upwards of 20 touches in this game. Wilson is only picking up 7% rostership at the moment. That’s music to my ears. No one’s on him. Except for Bo and everyone he tells and he never stops talking, so better act fast and lock him up!

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Davante Adams of the Las Vegas Raiders during warm up before the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on September 11, 2022 in...

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders – $8,600

Davante Adams is currently the most rostered wide receiver on the Week 2 DraftKings Main Slate at 17%. I totally understand and I’m also going to advocate for rostering him this week. 17 targets last week and this week his grandma is in the stands for the first time to watch him play. You don’t think he’s going to show out for his grandma? You don’t think the whole Raiders team isn’t going to try to get him two touchdowns for his grandma? Grandma plays this week friends. She’s already at the MGM gambling according to Adams. I’m all in on Adam’s grandma!

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Wide receiver Christian Kirk of the Jacksonville Jaguars cannot score a touchdown as he dives for the endzone against the Washington Commanders...

Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,700

Last week Christian Kirk saw 12 targets from Trevor Lawrence in a negative game script that saw them trailing much of the afternoon.  This week they are home underdogs to the visiting Indianapolis Colts. Who don’t have Carson Wentz anymore (who beat them last week) they have Matt Ryan who looks to beat them this week. They’re going to need to throw the ball and Christian Kirk is the number one wide receiver on that team by a mile. 117 yd receiving on six receptions that’s close to 20 yards per reception. Add a touchdown in there and we’re looking at a 22 to 25-point game this week, which is definitely in the realm of possibilities. I’m shooting for the upside that the Jag’s defense still sucks and they will be playing in garbage time.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Curtis Samuel of the Washington Commanders and Carson Wentz celebrate after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter against the Jacksonville...

Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders – $4,600

Last season Curtis Samuel barely saw the field. Last week he was targeted 11 times and caught eight passes for 55 yards and a touchdown. Oh and 20 DraftKings points as well. The boys and girls over at DraftKings do not believe in Samuel this week and have kept his price down at only $4,600.  The Washington Commanders versus Detroit Lions game has a 48 1/2 point total. Neither one of these teams have a defense. That’s not good. As a matter of fact, it’s great because we want to bet against them this week in a potential shootout that I’m projecting goes over 50 points.

High Priced – Tight End

Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens looks on against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on September 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $6,400

Mark Andrews is optimal. Mark Andrews is elite. Mark Andrews is the play for the high-priced tight ends this week with Kelce playing Thursday night. This is one of my favorite games of NFL week 2. I’m projecting this game to shoot over 50 points, crushing the 44.5-point total. Mark Andrews will catch a touchdown in this game. My projection is 19 to 21 points for him. This is going to be a different game than Week 1. The Ravens were crushing the Jets most of the game. There was no back and forth in that game. This week the Miami Dolphins are a different challenge altogether. I can see this game going down to the last play and hopefully is a touchdown to Mark Andrews. Fingers crossed.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Dalton Schultz of the Dallas Cowboys stiff-arms Emmanuel Moseley of the San Francisco 49ers during an NFL wild-card playoff football game at AT&T...

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys – $5,200

They say a backup quarterback’s best friend is a tight end. I don’t think backup quarterbacks have best friends honestly. They’re losers cuz they’re not starting quarterbacks, but in this hypothetical world, I get it. The new quarterback socks so he throws it to the closest guy who’s not a lineman and that normally has the tight end whose kind of the lineman. Dalton Schultz is no lineman, so maybe he won’t hit this week, but who else would they throw to between him and Ceedee Lamb and Tony Pollard? $5,200 is a steal for Schultz in a loss coming from behind garbage touchdown you know you’re going to love it.

Value – Tight End

Albert Okwuegbunam of the Denver Broncos stretches for a first down as Quandre Diggs of the Seattle Seahawks makes the stop during the second half of...

Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos – $3,700

Last week Albert Okwuegbunam caught five of six targets for 33 yards. All good signs now that Russell Wilson is his starting quarterback. At this pay-down price, we are chasing a touchdown in this plus matchup against a terrible Texans defense. The only downside of Albert O this week is that is the most popular tight end play at 12% rostership.

Featured

Nimble GPP Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 1! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Quarterback Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens scores a first quarter touchdown against the New England Patriots at M&T Bank Stadium on November...

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – $7,300

Lamar Jackson’s self-imposed deadline for signing a contract extension with the Baltimore Ravens came and went this Friday, only fueling the speculation about Jackson’s future with the team. You can’t help but think he has a huge chip on his shoulder heading in this weekend and that the New York Jets are going to, unfortunately (or fortunately for our sake) become his punching bag in this matchup.

In one career start against the New York Jets, Jackson passed for 212 yards, which was nice. But it was the five touchdowns that I think stand out from that performance. I’m not expecting a five-touchdown performance this week, but a three-touchdowns with 1 rushing on the ground is definitely on the table.

Running Jackson out naked is an option, but I like stacking him with either Mark Andrews or Rashod Bateman and then running it back with Elijah Moore of course. Shockingly Jackson is only picking up 6% roster ship as of Friday night. If this trend holds he could be a GPP winner come Sunday.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles reacts after defeating the Washington Football Team at Lincoln Financial Field on December 21, 2021 in...

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles – $6,800

According to RunTheSims.com, Jalen Hurts has a 60% boom rate. That’s a good thing. The Detroit Lions are not a good football team and that’s a good thing as well.  This offseason the Eagles traded for A.J. Brown from the Tennessee Titans. That’s a good thing. Second-year wide receiver Devonta Smith has another year of experience under his belt and should be primed for a Breakout.  As Olaf would say, “all good things.”

The only bad thing about Jalen hurts right now is that he’s picking up 12% rostership which makes him the most popular quarterback play on the DraftKings slate. You’re not sneaking up on anyone with Jalen hurts in your GPP lineup.

Which makes it a little bit harder for you to be successful in larger-scale tournaments with a field over on hurts. Stacking him with Brown and running it back with D’Andre Swift or Amon-Ra st. Brown is a way to differentiate yourself and lose some of that rostership. Don’t be afraid to play Hurts, you just need to play Hurt’s smart.

Value – Quarterback

Matt Ryan of the Indianapolis Colts on the field before the preseason game against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium on August 20, 2022 in...

Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts – $5,500

Matt Ryan at $5,500 with Michael Pittman as his WR1 and Jonathan Taylor as a threat out of the backfield. Honestly, it’s an ideal situation for a paydown quarterback with a high implied team total against one of the worst defenses in recent NFL history.

This is the best offense Matt Ryan has played with in a long time. And one could argue that Jonathan Taylor in the backfield set up an even more dangerous play-action pass from Ryan. All that to say if the game script tilts away from Jonathan Taylor touchdowns toward Matt Ryan’s passing touchdowns, his 5% rostership could pay off big time. 

Houston Texans’ defense last year surrendered over 2870 receiving yards to wide receivers with 16 touchdowns. Michael Pittman is prime for a breakout season and at $5,500 pairing him with Ryan makes a ton of sense in GPP tournaments. With Taylor’s projected ownership hemorrhaging around 20%,  I like the sneaky value this stack presents.

High Priced – Running Back

Quenton Nelson lifts up Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts after a touchdown in the second half against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil...

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts – $9,100

According to statmuse.com, Jonathan Taylor has 75 carries for 462 yards and has scored 6 touchdowns in 4 games against the Texans in his career. Taylor owns Houston like the Astros own cheating or Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears, totally, fully, publicly, and repeatedly. I fully expect to him continue owning the Houston Texans in 2022 as well.

If you’re fading Matt Ryan and Michael Pittman, which many are, then you probably playing Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are going to score points in this game and most likely Taylor will factor in with at least one touchdown, with two to three touchdown upside given his recent history in these divisional contests.

The volume is going to be there. The opportunity is going to be there. The weak defense is going to be there. It’s a perfect storm to pay up at $9,100. It’s expensive. But don’t overthink the running back position. There are only a few running backs who can do with Taylor and has done against the Texans.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Andre Swift of the Detroit Lions enters the practice field during the Detroit Lions Training Camp on July 27, 2022 in Allen Park, Michigan.

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions – $6,800

D’Andre Swift is @Bo_McBigTime on Twitter’s favorite Week 1 running back play for DraftKings. I totally get it. Swift should have the rushing volume. He should see the passing upside if this game tilts as well. The 48.5 over under is one of the highest early game totals on the  DraftKings main slate. 

Pro Tip: Target PPR running backs in high total games.

Swift should see 15 to 18 carries and 7 to 9 targets he has the potential to score 25 to 30 fantasy points and makes an excellent stacking run-back option if you’re playing Jalen hurts and you’re stacking him with A.J. Brown.

Swift is picking up 16% rostership, but with a 33% boom rate according to RunTheSims.com,  it’s a gamble worth taking. He makes an excellent play for GPP tournaments with small to medium-sized fields. 

Value – Running Back

Dameon Pierce of the Houston Texans rushes in the second quarter against the New Orleans Saints during a preseason game at NRG Stadium on August 13,...

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans – $4,800

Dameon Pierce is only $4,800 on DraftKings this week. Let me repeat that. The starting running back for the Houston Texans, who are going to be losing by a lot to the Indianapolis Colts and who will need to play catchup up, increasing the chance for garbage time, is only $4,800.

So you missed out on Pierce in your home League. Make sense. People overvalued him, and he went early. Well, DraftKings didn’t get the memo, so now here’s your chance. Even better, he’s only 4% rostered heading into a game with a 46-point over/under. Jonathan Taylor can’t score all the touchdowns folks. 

Think about the volume, the upside, the goal-line work, and the PPR points. It’s a perfect storm for a run-back stack if you want to play Jonathan Taylor (who’s 19-20% rostered) and not get crushed by the chalk.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Brown of the Philadelphia Eagles looks on against the New York Jets during the preseason game at Lincoln Financial Field on August 12, 2022 in...

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles – $6,400

AJ Brown is the truth! I’m paying down for my pay at wide receiver this week because I think at $6,400, he’s an absolute smash. PFF ranked him at the top of their NFL Week 1 wide receiver cornerback matchups chart. He scored a perfect 100%. I think that’s good.

Don’t let Jalen Hurts poor passing output in 2021lead you astray in 2022. Hurts didn’t have A.J. Brown. Tannehill only threw for 600 more yards on 100 more pass attempts with Brown last season. A peek inside the numbers reveals that A.J. is a monster waiting to attack Detroit Godzilla style.

He should see 8-10 targets in a plus matchup that has an implied team total of 26.25, there should be a 100-yard bonus on the table as well. I am expecting him to 4x his price tag and win me money. He’s going to be in all of my GPP lineups, mostly stacked with Hurts.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

New York Jets wide receiver Elijah Moore during warm up prior to the National Football League game between the New York Jets and the Atlanta Falcons...

Elijah Moore, New York Jets – $5,100

Elijah Moore finished the 2021 NFL season with 20-plus DraftKings points in three of five games. I’m not worried about Joe Flacco starting this week in place of Zach Wilson. Flacco throws a pretty damn good deep ball and Elijah Moore runs a hell of a deep route. At only $5,100, Elijah Moore is one of the cheapest lotto tickets on the slate.

Last year the Ravens gave up 34 points per game to opposing wide receivers, the 26th most. The Jets are currently 6.5 home underdogs with a game script that favors high-volume targets in all likelihood is a come-from-behind effort. I love stacking Elijah Moore with Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Skyy Moore of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates along the sideline after a long punt return during the first quarter of the preseason game against...

Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs – $3,800

Last season the Kansas City Chiefs passed 67% of the time out of 11 personnel. For those who are new to NFL personnel groupings, that means three wide receivers, one tight end, and one running back on the field. Tyreek Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins in the offseason and in the second round, the Kansas City Chiefs selected Skyy Moore from Western Michigan. 

Moore is not Tyreek Hill, but he will be running primarily out of the slot and he does have 4.41 40 speed. The 53.5 over/under is the highest total for the DraftKings Week 1 main slate. If Vegas thinks this game is going to shoot we want to have action on it.  $3,800 for Skky Moore is a great play with a huge upside!

High Priced – Tight End

Tight end Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens celebrates his second touchdown of the game against the Washington Football Team during the third...

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $6,800

All the high-priced tight ends have been priced down this week. This might be the cheapest we’re ever going to get Mark Andrews. The Ravens treat Andrews as their number one wide receiver. He was the number one tight end last year ahead of Travis Kelce. This week could see 10 targets in a high total contest. 

The Jets were terrible against tight ends last year, giving up over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. Expect the Baltimore Ravens to exploit the Jets linebacker matchups. According to PFF, Andrews has a decided advantage over Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley who should be covering him most of the afternoon. Stacking him with Lamar Jackson makes the most upside sense in a GPP environment. 

Mid-Range – Tight End

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders – $5,400

It was incredibly hard to not go Kyle Pitts at $5,700 here. But Darren Waller at $5,400 coming off of a terrible injury-plagued season where he started the season priced at over $7,000 on DraftKings, is a value that’s really hard to overlook. 

Waller is completely healthy and in a game environment that is expected to shoot out with a 52-point total. There will be a lot of attention on Davante Adams, and rightly so given the mega-stars offseason trade to the Vegas Raiders.

According to RunTheSims.Com,  Waller is only picking up 8 % roster ship which is music to my ears. Travis Kelce is currently hemorrhaging around 16% roster ship for $1,200 more. Waller might not be your favorite play, but he makes all the sense in the GPP world. Think Sal Vetri’s “That One Dude.”

Value – Tight End

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals – $4,400

Last year Zach Ertz revitalize his career after being traded mid-season from the Philadelphia Eagles to the Arizona Cardinals. He became a go-to weapon for Kyler Murray, Averaging 8.7 targets per game without DeAndre Hopkins in the line-up. Guess who’s missing the first six games of the season. You guessed it, DeAndre Hopkins.

Reports are that second-year wideout Rondale Moore is also likely to miss the game increasing the likelihood that the Cardinals will lean even more heavily upon Ertz in a game they are now six-point home underdogs in. The game script indicates that they shall be passing as they shall be trailing and they shall need to make up the points. I love Zach Ertz at this price. It’s a no-brainer slam dunker.

Featured

WR2 Theory: Reloaded

Time is money. I’ll spare you the long intro. Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, and Hunter Renfrow were all drafted as the WR2 on their team last season. Each of them was projected outside of the top-15 and they finished overall as the WR1, WR3, WR5, and WR10 respectively. ADP is a lie.

This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the ADP pill—the story ends and you wake up with your drafted fantasy team and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill and…WR2 Theory.

WR2 Theory Origin Story

Everyone loves a good origin story. If you don’t, just scroll past to get to the analytics.

It’s been two years since WR2 Theory was officially launched into fantasy football ether. If you missed the origin story, WR2 Theory’s roots can be traced to a brief-but-meaningful Twitter exchange with JJ Zachariason in February 2020. JJ posted a tweet asking for questions for his Late-Round Podcast mailbag. All the stars aligned as I stumbled upon it and posted a question that I had been mulling over the last few seasons. Simply put, I wanted to know how accurately we (as the fantasy community) were at successfully predicting which wide receiver finished the season as the WR1 on their own team. I was sure that this question had already been answered by fantasy football analysts and if JJ could just kindly push me in the right direction, I could get that info and get on with winning all my leagues….in February….don’t judge me.  

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After talking to JJ, it quickly became apparent that the easy answers I was seeking were not readily available to be effortlessly plucked from the fantasy football tree of knowledge. If my question was going to be answered, I was gonna need to take the fantasy stats into my own hands. I started immediately and haven’t looked back!!!

My Process

I began by pouring over the last eight seasons of WR ADP data and then compared it to the end of the season wide receiver rankings. Next, I filtered that data through the vacated targets tool to see if there was a correlation between breakout WRs and vacated targets.

Afterward, I studied the team-specific factors and circumstances to identify and document the conditions that led to the shift in the WR value for each team. Finally, I created the “criteria for success” that incorporated all of the key data points and then used them to determine WR2 breakout candidates for 2022.

As I dug further into the data, I started to see a pattern emerge. Each year there are wide receivers that are routinely undervalued and outperform their ADP. In 2021, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, Darnell Mooney, and Christian Kirk, were all drafted as the WR2 on their respective teams and finished as the WR1. In the case of Kupp and Chase, both had teammates (Robert Woods and Tee Higgins) who finished in the top-12 the previous season.

You don’t have to be Nimble with Numbers to see the discrepancy between consensus wide receiver ADP and true wide receiver value. The question then becomes, how do we identify the next WR2 to become a WR1 or the WR3 who will greatly outperform their ADP?  

WR2 Theory Criteria for Success

Every evaluation/prediction process needs criteria for success. Here is mine:  

Vacated Targets: Targets that are available in an offense.

High Volume Passing Offenses: Offenses that consistently/historically see an increased percentage of passing volume when compared to the league average.

Emerging Talent/Rookies: The infusion of talented younger players into offensive schemes.

Injuries: Increased workload due to injury to a teammate.

Vacated Targets

One important tool that I used to help me identify potential WRs who fit into the WR2 Theory was the 2021 vacated target data. Here is the list of 2022 vacated targets brought to you by John Daigle from 4for4 (@notJDaigle on Twitter). I updated it with color graphics and made it sortable and accessible here. My colleague doesn’t believe they exist but we’re talking about them about and now you are thinking about them, so…

Observations 

Last year, Cooper Kupp shattered the glass ceiling for WR2 Theory after scoring 439.5 points, the most fantasy points ever scored by a wide receiver. Kupp was drafted as the overall WR16, three spots after his teammate Robert Woods who was WR13. WR2 Theory for the win!!!

This season, two of the league’s top quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers both saw their stud wide receivers traded in the offseason. Mahomes has 340 targets and Rodgers has 250 targets that need a new home this year, which is extremely intriguing. The Tennessee Titans moved on from A.J. Brown and brought in Robert Woods and drafted Treylon Burks. The Dallas Cowboys and the Buffalo Bills have over 30% vacated targets as both have moved on from older wide receivers. They either drafted a wide receiver or have younger players waiting to ascend to the starting role. Tom Brady has close to 200 targets up for grabs as well. This is why WR2 Theory matters. Get this right and you Cooper Kupp your league.

A Passing League 

It is undeniable that the NFL has become a passing league. Last year, six teams featured at least two wide receivers who finished in the fantasy top 30. Explosive Offenses: Over the last seven years the following teams supported two top-30 WRs.

Emerging Talent/Rookies

The common-sense wisdom in redraft leagues has always been to wait on rookie wide receivers, who typically are unreliable and breakout later on in year two or three. In 2020, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Chase Claypool turned that thinking on its head, with Jefferson finishing as a WR1 and Lamb and Claypool finishing as WR2s. In 2021, Ja’Marr Chase scored over 300 fantasy points and Jaylen Waddle finished as the WR13, scoring 245 points.

The 2021 NFL wide receiver class was stacked with talent and they did not disappoint. Here is the list of rookie and second-year WRs who finished in the top-36 in 2021 (Bold indicates 2021 rookie).

2022 WR2 Candidates

Here are my 2022 WR2 Theory break-out candidates identified by round. All 2021 ADP rankings come directly from 4for4’s ADP tool and are based on a 12-Team PPR league.

Rounds 35

Mike Williams of the Los Angeles Chargers celebrates his touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams during the third quarter of the game at Los Angeles...

Mike Williams – Los Angeles Chargers – WR17

Mike Williams finally broke out last season with Justin Herbert under center, finishing as the overall WR12. Despite averaging only 0.7 fewer FPPG last season, he’s currently being drafted seven spots after 30-year-old Keenan Allen, who is flying off the board at WR10.

Digging into the numbers, Mike Williams was boom or bust last year, amassing a staggering 66% of his fantasy points in only six games. In the other 11 games, he only averaged 7.4 fantasy points, which was frustrating. His targets per game fluctuated between 4 and 17. Mike Williams won you weeks and lost your weeks. He was an upside play with variance, a gamble for sure each week, unlike Allen.

Why should you trust him thin 2022, given what you just read? Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) brought up a great point on Twitter that his production decrease coincided with an early-season injury in Week 5 of last year. This makes a lot of sense, given his dip in target share percentage in the weeks following. Allen outpaced him 71 targets to 42 targets in the next seven weeks.

This year Williams is completely healthy, with no lingering knee issues hampering his progress. Evan Silva of Establish the Run lays out a pretty convincing case for Williams surpassing Allen this season. I’m with Evan! I absolutely love Williams and have him on every team that I’ve drafted so far this year (4).

He’s already a top-12 fantasy wide receiver, who has another year of reps with Herbert, who the Chargers just signed to a 3-year $60M deal. All the signs are here given the high volume passing offense for Williams to smash his WR17 ADP and finish as the WR1 on the Chargers.

Allen Robinson – Los Angeles Rams – WR23

Allen Robinson was terrible last season, but in his defense so were the Bears, Matt Nagy, and Justin Fields. Matt Harmon from Reception Perception points out how terribly the Bears used him last season “Over 47 percent of Robinson’s sampled routes in 2021 were a slant or curl. I mean, what is that?” Matt is showing restraint, I will not. That is some bullshit. McVay won’t do him dirty like that this year.

Used w/permissoin from Receptionperception.com

When Matt came on the Chalk Blocked Show he said, “Any argument that Allen Robinson is washed is completely ridiculous.” Word on the beat reporter streets is that Robinson is thriving with Stafford. He is quickly becoming one of Stafford’s most reliable targets, hauling in targets in the middle of the field. Stafford is head and shoulders the best NFL quarterback that Robinson has ever played with.

With the exception of 2020, when Cooper Kupp finished the overall WR26, the Los Angeles Rams have had two wide receivers inside the top 24 every year since 2018. Robert Woods has been traded to the Tennessee Titans, opening the way for Robinson’s acquisition.

The Rams’ offense produced 899 wide receiver fantasy points in 2021. They scored 92 more points than the next closest team, the Tom Brady-led Bucs. This offense is primed to be even better than it was last year, which is a kind of scary way of thinking. Robinson has WR1 upside in a pass-friendly offense and you can draft him at the end of the fifth round. Sign me up for all the shares.

Chris Godwin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates a touchdown during a game against the Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium on January 03,...

Rounds 68

Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR24

Last year Chris Godwin averaged 17.3 FPPG, and Mike Evans averaged 16.4 FPPG. Evans is currently being drafted 15 spots ahead of him. Godwin is coming off a knee injury, which has suppressed his early ADP. According to Luke Easterling from Bucs Wire, “Godwin didn’t start training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, which is always a good sign. Just a few days into camp, he began taking part in positional drills, wearing a knee brace.”

Godwin finished as the WR2 in 2019, averaging 19.7 FPPG that season with Jameis Winston. ADP perspective, the WR24 last year was Calvin Ridley, he averaged 14.2 FPPG. Godwin might miss a few early-season reps, but I’m not worried about an aging Julio Jones or Russell Gage impacting his season-long value. There’s no Gronk, and oh, btw, last year both Godwin and Antonio Brown averaged 17.3 FPPG.

In the last two seasons, Tom Brady has attempted 1,329 passes, completing 886 times for 9,949 yards and 83 touchdowns. Please tell me why Chris Godwin won’t be on all my teams, unless you steal him from me. How dare you! And after I put you on to him and all. I see how it is. No Godwin for you!!

Gabriel Davis of the Buffalo Bills scores a 19 yard touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff...

Gabriel Davis – Buffalo Bills – WR27

The Buffalo Bills moved on from Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason. The moves freed up 200 targets in the Bills’ high-octane passing offense. The Bills’ wide receivers scored the fourth most fantasy points last season behind only the Rams, Buccaneers, and Vikings.

Admittedly the offseason hype has the four-touchdown playoff game against the Chiefs sent his ADP into orbit. Rightly so, if we are being honest. Josh Allen is a potential NFL Hall of Fame quarterback in his early prime with a cannon arm and a wide receiving arsenal that looks close to unstoppable, even in the vaunted AFC East.

Let’s look at the numbers from 2021. Davis performed well during the regular season, earning a 73.7 PFF grade. That’s all well and good, but he went total beast mode in the playoffs, turning his 13 targets into 10 receptions for 242 yards and 5 touchdowns. His 92.3 PFF ranking was the best of any playoff wide receiver. The future is now with Gabe Davis, shake off the haters and join team winning!

Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings – WR29

Picking Adam Thielen might not be the sexy pick the kids will be using to inspire the TikTok dance trend, but the man gets it done. With Justin Jefferson as his running mate the last two seasons, Thielen has averaged 16.2 FPPG. The average WR29 over the last 5 seasons is averaging 13 FPPG. If you like more points, Thielen makes a lot of sense.

Still not sold? Thielen converted his 15 red-zone targets into nine touchdowns for a truly mind-blowing 86% touchdown conversation rate. Thielen is a dangerous weapon that will be single-covered 60% of the time every time Kirk Cousin looks for him. Thielen isn’t going to be flashy, but his two touchdown performances will win you your week.

Still not sold? Mike Zimmer and his Instagram girlfriend broke up and oh, he’s not the coach of the Minnesota Vikings anymore. In his place was hired pass-friendly Kevin O’Connell, who wants to push the ball downfield, unlike Zimmer who established the run more than Adam Levitan. If Thielen can stay healthy, he’s a tremendous value at WR29. Don’t overthink this one.

Hunter Renfrow of the Las Vegas Raiders catches a touchdown pass in the end zone against Kareem Jackson of the Denver Broncos in the second quarter...

Hunter Renfrow – Las Vegas Raiders – WR36

Hunter Renfrow is the perfect WR2 Theory candidate. He finished as the overall WR10 last year in PRR. This current ADP is wild. I get that Davante Adams is the WR1 and Darren Waller is a thing, but still, this is just stupid. Renfrow had a ridiculous 80% reception rate, why is Derek Carr suddenly going to ignore him? I didn’t realize that Adams was a slot receiver. I’ll adjust my ranks.

With the addition of Adams, Renfrow will be further ignored, increasing the potential for favorable one-on-one matchups. Renfrow might not score 260 fantasy points, but he’s definitely going to score more than 170. That’s the average score the WR36 scored in the last five years.

I’m projecting Renfrow for 190 fantasy points, which is more like WR30. Renfrow doesn’t have to finish the season as the WR1 on the Raiders for WR2 Theory to work. Adams depressing his ADP makes him a value and adds 30-40 points to your team without reaching for him.

Rounds 8-12

Brandon Aiyuk of the San Francisco 49ers leaps over Marcus Epps of the Philadelphia Eagles to score a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles...

Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers – WR39

For the last two seasons, Brandon Aiyuk has finished as the overall WR35. He’s averaged 177 FPPG but has had his ups and downs along the way. The infusion of Trey Lance into the San Francisco 49er’s offense is going to be a game changer for Aiyuk, who thrives downfield after the catch. He ranked 19th amongst NFL wide receivers after the ball is in his hands.

We all know Aiyuk’s athleticism is off the charts. Combine that with an explosive 49ers offense and the impending Deebo Samuel regression, his WR39 price tag appears to be a grave miscalculation from the fantasy football community.

Realistically we should expect more of the 15 FPPG we saw in 2020 than the 10 FPPG we saw last season. If you remember, he began the 2021 season in Kyle Shanahan’s dog house and it took a few games to break out of it. I don’t expect any of those issues, as all the training camp reports have been glowing.

Jose Luis Sanchez from Si.com reported that “The Brandon Aiyuk hype train is legitimate. It isn’t just a bunch of hope that he will be amazing this season. He’s DEFINITELY going to be sweet this year. In fact, his “hype train” is officially now a “shooting star” with how mesmerizing his practices have been.”

If Aiyuk can average even 14 FPPG that would be a 90-point improvement from last season. A better hype train name might be “Sleeping Giant.” I’ll be scoping up all the Aiyuk shares I can grab at the end of the 8th round.

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Skyy Moore battles with Chicago Bears linebacker Noah Dawkins during the preseason game between the Chicago Bears...

Skyy Moore Kansas City WR50

I’ve watched all offseason as Skyy Moore’s ADP crept up from the ’60s into the ’50s and soon into the ’40s. Should you be buying the hype? An 11th-round pick for a talented rookie with 4.41-speed that offense is joining a Patrick Mahomes offense with 340 vacated targets. I’m surprised it took this long for the FF community to figure it out.

According to training camp reports, the Chiefs are deploying Moore all over the field. He’s not Tyreek Hill. And he doesn’t have to be to return value at his current ADP. Bryan Stewart from Arrowhead Pride reported “Moore…will be a slot receiver…he still stands apart from a typical slot wideout, who usually doesn’t have the linear speed to threaten downfield — or the catch radius to be a legitimate threat from the outside. Moore checks both of those boxes.”

Moore might not start the season red hot as he’ll be competing with veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and MVS for targets. If you draft Moore, give him a few weeks to find his footing, because once he does, he might not ever let up.

George Pickens of the Pittsburgh Steelers makes a catch for a 26-yard touchdown reception as Coby Bryant of the Seattle Seahawks defends in the first...

George Pickens – Pittsburgh Steelers – WR52

George Pickens’s ADP is currently on hellish fire after his three-catch, 43-yard, touchdown performance was noticed by fantasy football heavy hitters. Jeff Bell of FootballGuys (@4WhomJBellTolls) astutely pointed out that Pickens was on pace for a historical rookie season with “204 receptions, 2,924 yards, and 68 touchdowns. A record.” His tweet went viral of course (I blame analytics) causing the ADP spike of the freaking summer and all but ruining my WR2 Theory reveal party. Thanks a lot, Jeff.

Pickens still has value, even after his rapid ADP rise. He’s coming off the board at the beginning of the 11th round, which is a fair price to pay for a dynamic big-play wide receiver whose Player Profiler comp is Jerry Jeudy. The Steelers’ offense should be better this year without the accused rapist Ben Roethlisberger under center.

First off Diontae Jonhson is not getting 169 targets this year. I expect Pickens to vulture a handful of those targets. Mark Kaboly of The Atheltic reported “Pickens has been the star of camp, consistently making play after play, which is highly unusual for a rookie receiver. You would expect to see flashes, but not every day. And I mean every day.”

Chase Claypool regressed in 2021, scoring 2.3 fewer FPPG. Calling himself a top-three wide receiver in the NFL over the summer doesn’t sit quite right with me either. The Steelers have a history of recognizing wide receiver talent, I trust Mike Tomlin knows what he’s doing and will be scooping Pickens looking for a long-shot league winner.

Rounds 12-16

Jalen Tolbert – Dallas Cowboys – WR59

I like Jalen Tolbert and have him on every team I’ve drafted this year (dynasty, redraft, best ball, even Scott Fish Bowl). My reasoning is that he will be a starting wide receiver for the Dallas Cowboys. Seems pretty straightforward. They produced over 750 fantasy points for the wide receiver position and now find themselves out of healthy wide receivers.

CBSSPorts is reporting “With Michael Gallup (knee) and James Washington (foot) both set to miss the beginning of the regular season, there will be a lot of pressure on Tolbert to handle a big role from the jump despite being a third-round pick from a smaller conference.”

Jalen Tolbert underwhelmed in his preseason debut, only catching two of seven targets. Still, he had seven targets. He might not start off red hot, but there will be a role for him to start the season and he should be drafted in every home league. Hopefully, by you.

Cheat code. Draft Gallup and stash him on your IR until he’s back off the PUP list.

Tyler Boyd of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals at Paul...

Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals– WR60

All Tyler Boyd did last year was score 184 points and finish as the overall WR31. How does the fantasy football community repay him? They drop him 30 ADP spots and start drafting him in the 14th round. This is just absolute madness. For perspective, Quez Watkins was the WR60 last and he scored 116 fantasy points.

In the last four seasons in the NFL Boyd has scored 221, 223, 192, and 184 points. Sure there’s some regression, but damn! Are you telling me he’s going to go full Quez in 2021? I just can’t with this garbage.

Tyler Boyd deserves much better and if he’s hanging around in the 14th round of your home league, you are getting away with highway robbery. If either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins were to get banged up, Boyd immediately becomes a starting WR3 on your squad each week. Free Tyler Boyd!!!

Jahan Dotson of the Washington Commanders warms up before the preseason game against the Carolina Panthers at FedExField on August 13, 2022 in...

Jahan Dotson – Washington Commanders – WR66

The Washington Commander might actually be onto something this time with Jahan Dotson. I live in the Washington DC suburbs and Dotson fanboying has been reverberating across the sports radio airways in anticipation of him getting unleashed this season.

Sure, all hometown talk radio is too good to be true. Sam Fortier of the Washington Post reports that “Dotson should be on the field often. Turner uses three or more wide receivers at one of the highest rates in the league — 75 percent of the time last year, according to Sharp Football — and will continue to do so this season.”

Curtis Samuel’s presence might scare you away, but if the Commanders had faith in Samuel, they wouldn’t have invested 1st round draft capital in Dotson. It’s his job to win at this point. If Carson Wentz can do his best Joe Flacco impersonation and get the ball downfield, Scary Terry might finally have a suitable running mate at wide receiver.

Dotson’s ADP is currently 15.10 and being drafted as a dart throw or is available on the waiver wire in PPR leagues. He’s a receiver that I won’t be drafting, but I will be monitoring him the first few weeks of the season to see how he’s acclimating to the NFL.

Nico Collins – Houston Texans – WR76

Nico Collins is a wide receiver that I have been drafting all offseason as well. He’s free and cheap and 6’4″ and 220lbs. Sure, the Texans are one bad season from being relegated to the USFL, but they are committed to developing Davis Mills into a franchise quarterback. They’ve armed him with a big downfield threat in Collins.

Last season, Collins got off to a slow start but ended the last three games catching eight balls for 135 yards and a touchdown. During this preseason, Collins has been working with Texans wide receiving great Andre Johnson to work on his route running and hand placement. The work appears to be paying off early on in camp as Collins looks fluid and much more comfortable running routes.

Realistically I am not expecting Collins to oust Brandin Cooks from his WR1 position on the team, but I am expecting him to close the gap and carve out a role as a fantasy flex player this season. If he can double his output from 2021, he’ll be live each week.

Hamler of the Denver Broncos celebrates with teammates Albert Okwuegbunam and Garett Balles after scoring a touchdown against the Los Angeles...

K.J. Hamler – Denver Broncos – WR87

The Broncos lost Tim Patrick to a season-ending torn ACL during the training camp. K.J. Hamler missed all of his rookie season, suffering his own torn ACL in the 2021 preseason. The second-round pick has looked good in his return to practice.

Luke Patterson of Si.com reports “Hamler’s routes were precise, smooth, and explosive on Monday. The third-year slot receiver known for his speed, burst, and elite athleticism caught virtually every pass thrown his way in positional drills and during team period.”

The addition of Russell Wilson to the Broncos’ offense is a true game changer for Hamler given last season that Drew Lock was battling with Teddy Bridgewater for the quarterback job.

According to PFF’s Sam Munson, “Hamler could be a perfect designated deep threat for, arguably, the best deep passer in the league.” His deep ball skill set is exactly what Wilson maximized in Tyler Locket over his career in Seattle. There’s already talk from Hamler that sees himself as the next Tyler Lockett. Wheels up on his free ADP.

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Super Unlikely

I already have my concession speech ready. In the most unlikely of collapses, my DFS luck ran out at the end of the regular season. In order to be the recipient of the championship whiskey, I will need to win by more than 37 points on Sunday. Any given Sunday, right?

With only one slate left, a Showdown slate, it will be even more difficult to reach the crest of the crater I left when I smacked into DFS rock bottom like the asteroid that killed all the cute dinosaurs. My Super Bowl lineup is as aggressive as I could afford to be. Here’s hoping I can hit optimal and also get Scott’s lineup to completely fall flat. Then I’ll be able to mock him with a nice dram, sipping with my pinky finger flying.

Bo’s Lineup

Captain – Odell Beckham Jr. – LA Rams – $12,600

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Los Angeles Rams reacts during the second quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at SoFi Stadium on January 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

The major risk I am taking with this lineup is fading both of the top wide receivers in the game. I am doubling down on my Kupp fade to Captain OBJ. Cincinnati’s pass defense isn’t terrible. They also play a lot of Cover-3 out of the nickel, which has the effect of taming Cooper Kupp’s outrageous upside. If I’m right, OBJ will duplicate his NFC Championship performance and score a touchdown.

Flex – Kendall Blanton – LA Rams – $4,600

I really don’t expect Tyler Higbee to be a factor in the passing game, even if he is able to play. Blanton stepped in masterfully against the 49ers, with 10.7 fantasy points in relief. A full game running routes against that shell zone scheme would result in very nice numbers at this salary for Blanton. Cincinnati is 29th in the NFL against opposing tight ends. McVay knows this and will slice the Bengals’ underbelly with an attack on the middle seam.

Flex – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $10,600

CINCINNATI, OHIO – FEBRUARY 07: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals walks onto the field as he is introduced during a Cincinnati Bengals Fan Rally ahead of Super Bowl LVI at Paul Brown Stadium on February 07, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

Joe Burrow is just too cool. I tried to find a reason to fade him, but his floor is simply too high. Sure, Ramsey will limit whomever he covers. On the other hand, Burrow has a trio of great receivers and the other defensive backs beside Ramsey have been a liability. Look for Burrow to need to pass for 300 yards for this game to be close.

Flex –  Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals – $7,600

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JANUARY 15: Tee Higgins #85 of the Cincinnati Bengals drops a reception against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of the AFC Wild Card playoff game at Paul Brown Stadium on January 15, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

I fully assume that Ja’Marr Chase will draw the majority of Jalen Ramsey’s attention. This excites me because Darious Williams has been getting barbecued all postseason by receivers nowhere near as good as Tee Higgins. Higgins is a big, rangy receiver who will be called upon in the red zone. I don’t see any way the Rams can cover all of the Bengals’ receivers.

Flex – Samaje Perine – Cincinnati Bengals – $2,400

Perine is the third-down back for Cincinnati, which means draws and screens (especially off of chip blocks) will be his forte. Raheem Morris loves to bring pressure on third down, which might be a fatal error against Burrow. At only $2.4k, I’m taking the chance that Burrow will use Perine to slip in behind the blitz, where big plays (like the one Perine had versus the Chiefs) can completely change the game’s momentum.

Flex – Matthew Stafford – Kansas City Chiefs $10,800

Sep 12, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) celebrates in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, I truly believe Stafford is the quarterback of destiny this season. Burrow has led his Bengals to an improbable berth in this game, but the Rams were supposed to be hereafter trading for the longtime Detroit Lion. Los Angeles mortgaged its entire future for this season. I need the guy to only throw touchdowns to Beckham and Blanton. It sounds absolutely absurd after the season Kupp had, but I am banking (and praying) on this being a wild finish to the craziest season in NFL history.

Raise My Kupp

At no point in the 2021 NFL season did I envision myself one game away from defeating Bo McBrayer and winning the Clash of the Beards and Bellies. I’m humbled to be in that very position this Super Sunday. I have a 32 point lead on Bo with only one game remaining. I thought long and hard about my lineup. I knew that I needed to play it reasonably safe and that Bo would in turn be forced to pivot to riskier, high variance plays. I made sure to include both quarterbacks and Cooper Kupp in my lineup. Bo faded Kupp and hitched his wagons to the OBJ Express. “It’s a bold strategy, Cotton” is all I can really say at this point. Our season-long battle comes down to which Ram’s wide receivers catch the Matthew Stafford touchdowns. I’m betting on Kupp and he’s betting on OBJ. May the football gods be with me and only me. May the sweet taste of victory literally be mine!!

Scott’s Lineup

Captain – Cam Akers – LA Rams – $9,600

TAMPA, FLORIDA – JANUARY 23: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams hands the ball off to teammate Cam Akers #23in the fourth quarter of the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Cam Akers isn’t my favorite DraftKings captain this week, but he is my favorite pay-down option that allows me to load my roster up with both quarterbacks, Cooper Kupp, and a starting running back (Akers). The Cincinnati Bengals defense allowed over 2,100 total yards and 16 total touchdowns to running backs in 2021. Akers’ 54 attempts in three playoff games are second-most for backs in the playoffs behind only Jerick McKinnon’s 55. Akers should see plenty of action all game long. And if the Rams are winning come the fourth quarter, which they are favored to be, Akers could be called on to run the clock out. If the Rams are losing, even better. Akers will be used more in the passing game.

Flex LA Rams DST – $3,400

The LA Rams DST has the home team advantage in the Super Bowl. Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Jalen Ramsey will be amped up and should feed off the electric energy from playing at home in front of their home fans. The last LA Rams Super Bowl game was predicted to shootout, but in the end, was a low-scoring tilt against the GOAT Tom Brady. I’m looking for 9-11 points from the defense, which should be manageable given the pass-rushing advantage the Rams enjoy/

Flex – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $10,600

KANSAS CITY, MO – JANUARY 30: Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) enters the stadium before the AFC Championship game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs on Jan 30, 2022 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Joe “Shiesty” Burrow is the truth. He’s beaten the Raiders, the Titans, Pat Mahomes, and the Kansas City Chiefs in an improbable sophomore run to the 2021 Super Bowl. Last season there were questions about whether he would be able to return to his rookie form after his gruesome 2020 knee injury. Burrow, aided by rookie wide receiving sensation Ja’Marr Chase, has exploded onto the NFL landscape, introducing the world to one of the coolest kids around. How can you not cheer for Joey B this week? Bo is no idiot, and of course, has Burrow on his squad as well. We all want a piece of greatness.

Flex – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $11,600

Speaking of Kupp, he’s the highest-scoring player in DraftKings, averaging 27.8 points per game. Kupp was incredible, amassing 145 receptions, 16 touchdowns, and over 1,900 receiving yards. Kupp is the most expensive player, but for good reason. A Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown is -165. The man is expected to put up real and fantasy points on Super Bowl Sunday. Unlike Bo, I will not be getting cute and will be playing Kupp one last time this season.

Evan – McPherson – Cincinnati Bengals – $4,000

Evan McPherson has scored 11 or more points in the last seven games. In the playoffs, he has been money, making all 12 of his field goals and averaging 16 points per game. If the Rams defense stops Burrow, I like having McPhearson raining down 50-yard field goal bombs all night. At only $4,000 he’s one of the best value plays on the board.

Flex – Matthew Stafford – LA Rams – $10,800

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp Combined this season for 57 touchdowns. The smart money in Cash games and H2H contests is to feature the two players who are most likely to score touchdowns. I’m not surprised Bo has included Stafford in his lineup, but fading Kupp for the second straight week in favor of OBJ is a risky all-or-nothing play brought on by the desperation of being down 30-plus points.

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Put Up or Shut Up

I cry a lot. The great Jim Valvano said in his infamous ESPYs speech that you should “have your emotions moved to tears, could be happiness or joy” every day. Lately, the waterworks have been from losing in heartbreaking fashion to Nimble. It was the walk-off touchdown from Mahomes to Kelce in overtime that dropped the Bills defense into the red numbers.

Those negative two points left me 0.12 points shy of Scott faster than two shakes of a lamb’s tail. It was over. One of the greatest football games in history to culminate the best weekend of professional football in the history of the game.

The opportunity was there for me and I blew it, just like the Bills did. I bet on a good defense and that unit was crushed under the staggering talent of a guy who prefers his steak well done with ketchup. I need to redeem myself for the medium-rare, salt and pepper crowd. I have a lot of ground to cover, so bear with this hyper-aggressive build.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,600

DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 19: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals warms-up before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on December 19, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

I contemplated sending Tanny a spring-loaded box of phallic confetti, but I’m too lazy to ultimately follow through with it. Joe Scheisty is the Bee’s Knees these days and too many have already forgotten what he did to this defense only three weeks ago. I think he does it again.

RB – Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kansas City Chiefs – $5,300

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 23: Clyde Edwards-Helaire #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts during the game against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Jerick McKinnon is more popular and affordable this week. So what? Until the Wild Card round, Jet was completely irrelevant. Last week, CEH looked infinitely more explosive in his first game back from a shoulder injury. I follow trends and the 2020 first round pick is trending toward a bigger workload against a getable Bengals front.

RB – Elijah Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers – $5,900

Mitchell was smothered last week by Green Bay. To be fair, it was zero degrees outside and the Packers smartly loaded the box because Jimmy Garoppolo is gourmet refuse. The running game is the key to San Francisco reaching their second Super Bowl in the last three seasons, especially against their bitter rivals.

WR –  Odell Beckham Jr. – LA Rams – $5,100

TAMPA, FLORIDA – JANUARY 23: Devin White #45 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defend as Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Los Angeles Rams runs with the ball in the first quarter of the game in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Davante Adams still got his last week, but I was impressed with how they limited his ability to turn small plays into big ones. This secondary has almost no skill, but their scheme has saved them all season. This leads me to believe they will be hyper-focused on Cooper Kupp and will challenge Matthew Stafford to make plays to his other weapons. OBJ has lived in the end zone since he was “marooned” in southern California. I hope for his sake that he can advance to the Big Game to flip the double birds to Cleveland yet again.

WR – Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,700

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – JANUARY 22: Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals makes a catch in front of cornerback Elijah Molden #24 of the Tennessee Titans in the second half of the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Nissan Stadium on January 22, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

I am going full-on air raid attack on this banged-up KC secondary. Burrow will be forced to sling it to keep up with the Ketchup King. Chase is the best rookie receiver in history. Zac Taylor will continue to focus this offense on Number 1. Special players have their best games in big moments.

WR – Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals – $5,700

Independent of what Chase can accomplish, I believe the second-year pro out of Clemson represents a bigger matchup nightmare for the Chiefs. Higgins is 6’4″ and boasts elite hands and body control at the catch point. Steve Spagnuolo loves to blitz and put his corners in isolated coverage. They do have good ball skills out there, but Higgins is going to be a problem when those situations arise.

TE – Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs $6,500

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 23: Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs jumps to catch the ball during the game against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

I would have to be completely insane to not roster a Chiefs’ receiver this week. As much as I love Tyreek Hill this week, I did not have enough salary to squeeze him in. No matter, I will have the same insane upside with the best tight end in the NFL.

FLEX– George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers– $5,000

I think this is wild. $5k is an insulting salary for a tight end with potential to go completely nuclear and break the slate. I couldn’t stand idly by while Scott rostered Kittle for the Clash. I must break him. It’s another Kittle “body bag” game.

DST – San Francisco 49ers – $2,800

I was very close to picking the 49ers DST over the Bills last week. They were cheaper and they scored 21 points to -2 by Buffalo. Oh well. I’ll take the L on that choice and hope the Niners can force some more Stafford turnovers. It was the Rams who nearly blew a 27-3 lead last week, thanks to four fumbles. I just need positive points from San Francisco

Photo Finish

Last week I beat Bo by 0.12 for my fifth straight victory in the Clash of the Beards and Bellies. Every yard matters in the NFL and every fraction of a point matters against Bo. No time for victory laps. I have a H2H Championship to win. I’m still only up 37.42 points and no lead is safe with Bo lurking around. This week we only have three matching players, which means that it’s anyone’s game. I’m rocking double tight ends and a stable of high-upside wide receivers. Bo has the running back horse power. It should be another epic Clash, but I like my lineup and my chances.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,600

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – JANUARY 22: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals against the Tennessee Titans during the AFC Divisional Playoff at Nissan Stadium on January 22, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

I’m not surprised that Bo and I both rostered Joe Burrow this week agaisnt the Kansas City Chiefs. He’s currently a road underdog who is coming off of a 348-yard passing performance against the Tennessee Titans. Burrow might drop back to pass 50 times in this game and since interceptions only cost you one point, there’s tremendous upside for Burrow this week. I love stacking with this either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins. Bo went for the home run against me and stacked him with both. I love Chase this week, but if you can’t afford the price tag, Higgins is worth a look at only $5,700.

RB – Cam Akers – LA Rams – $5,000

TAMPA, FLORIDA – JANUARY 23: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams hands the ball off to teammate Cam Akers #23in the fourth quarter of the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Cam Akers fumbled the ball twice last week agaisnt the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, once when he was a few feet from the end zone no less. This week his $5,000 price tag leaves him begging for redemption in my H2H lineup. Akers 46 touches in two games are second to only Elijah Mitchell’s 50. I’ll take the home favorite discount running back every day of the week. Hell, I even stacked Akers with the Rams defense going away. Bite on that one sauce boss.

RB – Jerick McKinnon – Kansas City Chiefs – $5,100

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 23: Jerick McKinnon #1 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the ball after a catch against Jordan Poyer #21 of the Buffalo Bills during the third quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Until two weeks ago Jerick McKinnon has been a forgotten man in the NFL. Revived by the potent Kansas City Chiefs offense, McKinnon has 22 carries and 13 targets for a total of 35 touches the last two weeks. The Chiefs are 7.5 home favorites so I expect both McKinnon and CEH to be involved in the offense all night long. McKinnon has the PRR upside and has looked dangerous out of the backfield, racking up 135 yards and one score on 11 receptions. I’m hoping he scores 13-15 points.

WR – Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals – $5,700

Tee Higgin is one of the best values this week at only $5,700. I’m stacking him with Joe Burrow as a contrarian stack option to the Ja’Marr Chase stack. Bo has wisely decided to mitigate my stacking leverage and played both Bengals wide receivers. It’s a high upside move that could pay off big or backfire in his face. The good new news for me is that I have two out of the three plays, so if anything I’ve leveraged his leverage.

WR – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,000

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 23: Wide receiver Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs flashes a peace sign toward outside linebacker Matt Milano #58 of the Buffalo Bills as he heads for the end zone to score a touchdown during the 4th quarter of the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Tyreek Hill has the legit potential to score every time he touches the football. We saw his game-changing potential last week in the final seconds against the Bills. Sure he’s been more of a traditional GPP play each week, but we are down to the final two weekends of the Clash and at some point, you just do what Min Cash Peter would do and you play the best plays. Tyreek Hill is one of the best plays this week. Bo is missing out.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $8,800

I’m shocked that Bo didn’t roster Cooper Kupp. Guess he doesn’t like winning or points because that’s all that Kupp has done this year. He has 55.8 DraftKings points in two games on 17 receptions on 20 targets for 240 yards and a touchdown. Kupp hit the 100-yard bonus in both games. I’m expecting more of the same this week from the 49ers secondary and expect Kupp to find the end zone at least once.

TE – C.J. Uzomah – Cincinnati Bengals – $3,400

C.J. Uzomah has 13 receptions on 14 targets for 135 yards and a touchdown through two Cincinnati Bengals playoff wins. He’s averaging 16 DraftKings points per game and in a 54.5 total environment this week. I’m expecting more of the same for the cheaply priced Uzomah. Thankfully Bo still doesn’t believe an. d all these points will be mine.

Flex – George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers – $5,000

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – JANUARY 22: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers runs after making a catch during the game against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lambeau Field on January 22, 2022 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The 49ers defeated the Packers 13-10. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

This season George Kittle has 14 targets, 10 receptions, 60 yards, and a touchdown against the LA Rams. The San Francisco 49ers will need a big game from Kittle if they are going to stay in the game and pull off their third straight road upset. I expect Kittle to see 8-10 targets and with after the catch ability, has the potential to break one. Of course, Bo rostered him.

DST – LA Rams – $3,200

Jimmy Garappollo is the worst quarterback still playing in the playoffs and the LA Rams are the best defense still playing in the playoffs, it’s that simple. High upside defense in the lowest total game.

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Clash of the Beards & Bellies

Hey Siri, Play Invincible by TOOL

What kind of silver lining can be discerned on the heels of a four-game losing streak? What does one do in this precarious situation? Pray? Meditate? Drink themself into oblivion? For the first time ever, I found myself nodding along with Mike McCarthy. I know how to win at DFS. I know how to build lineups. I am not concerned about my future job security.

Scotty Stacks came ready like the 49ers did and smacked me around with a one-two knockout punch from Sexy Flexy (Deebo) and the Rams DST. I rolled all of the above questions into a tasty burrito of an answer. My rebuttal comes in the form of a truly nasty lineup build for the Divisional round. It is a lineup that will take Scott from the penthouse to the bourbon aisle. Cheers!

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans – $5,800

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – SEPTEMBER 12: Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans smiles on the field after a penalty during the game against the Arizona Cardinals at Nissan Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Cardinals defeated the Titans 38-13. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Tanny wasn’t his 2020 fantasy self this season. Far too many times, it was a product of the failing health of his most dangerous weapons. Tennessee will have all of them back this week. I am leveraging the Derrick Henry selection from Scott that I saw coming from 3,000 miles away. I am also predicting a three-touchdown game from Tanny, with one of them coming on the ground.

RB – Cam Akers – LA Rams – $5,500

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Cam Akers #23 of the Los Angeles Rams runs with the ball in the first quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at SoFi Stadium on January 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

I was an Akers truther from his last season at Florida State. Cam was ultra-impressive behind one of the worst offensive lines in NCAA history. Now, he’s the centerpiece in Sean McVay’s play-action crucible of an offense. The Bucs are not as immortal against good running backs as their reputation suggests. If a torn Achilles can’t keep Akers from dominating, neither can Vita Vea.

RB – Elijah Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers – $5,800

How can I possibly expect a late-round rookie to lead me to victory this week? If you’ve been following along, I was picking Mitchell ahead of Trey Sermon in rookie drafts in the preseason. He’s legit. Green Bay hasn’t been as porous against the run as in recent years, but the 49ers have zero chance of winning at Lambeau without sticking the ball in the kid’s gut at least 20 times.

WR – A.J. Brown – Tennessee Titans – $6,200

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: A.J. Brown #11 of the Tennessee Titans celebrates the win at the end of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Bills 34-31. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

This build is all about the unlimited upside of mega-stud wide receivers. I wish I could roster more than four of them. AJ Brown stacked with Tannehill is going to be a lethal combination against a red-hot Bengals team. At the very least, I’m hoping for the same type of volume he saw against the 49ers a few weeks ago.

WR – Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals – $7,100

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JANUARY 15: Ja’Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals makes a catch while being guarded by Desmond Trufant #10 of the Las Vegas Raiders in the second quarter during the AFC Wild Card playoff game at Paul Brown Stadium on January 15, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

I actually do envision this Titans-Bengals game to flow like the Titans-49ers game in primetime a few weeks ago. Instead of Deebo, my correlating runback weapon is the best rookie receiver in NFL history. The game plan last week against Vegas was beautiful, with the lion’s share of targets going to Chase. A repeat of that and I’m golden.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $8,600

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams runs with the ball in the first quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at SoFi Stadium on January 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Kupp too? In this economy? Oh yes. The owner of the second-most productive wide receiver season in NFL history also has a nice chance to rebound off his most modest game of the year last week. The Bucs are ultra-generous to opposing receivers, funneling off their elite run defense. Once again, I’m hitting all the upside keys this week to make up ground on dear Scott.

TE – George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers– $5,300

ARLINGTON, TX – JANUARY 16: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers on the field before the NFC Wild Card Playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on January 16, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. The 49ers defeated the Cowboys 23-17. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

Where last week was an obvious Deebo week, this game at Lambeau is a Kittle “body bag” game. He lit up the Pack in Week 3 and I expect more of the same in a winning or losing effort from San Francisco. He is usually too good of a blocker, but I think Shanahan can see this obvious matchup advantage in coverage.

FLEX – Randall Cobb– Kansas City Chiefs – $3,100

I’m taking a shot on this injury-mitigated price. Cobb has turned in five touchdowns on only 28 receptions this season. If San Francisco sells out to triple-cover Adams, Cobb is practically on the same cycle as Rodgers too.

DST – Buffalo Bills – $2,600

I don’t believe in the Chiefs this week. I might be wrong, but this Bills’ defense is literally built to beat them. Buffalo’s DST scored 17 fantasy points against KC earlier in the season and made Patrick Mahomes look like Daniel Jones. I don’t need that kind of performance, but I’ll gladly take it.

Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton


If you are not familiar with Formula One or F1 Racing, you are really missing out on some incredible drama. This past season was one of the most exciting to date, after nine-time and defending champion Lewis Hamilton was passed on the last lap of the season by rising star Max Verstappen to claim the 2021 F1 Championship in dramatic fashion. Well, call me Max to Bo’s Lewis because after trailing all season, being down three games twice, and losing nine straight last season, I finally passed Bo last week and am leading the Clash of the Beards and Bellies. We are adding up all the H2H points scored in the playoff rounds to determine who wins their choice of a bottle of expensive Bourbon if BO wins or Scotch if Scott wins. I’m currently leading by 37.3, but no lead is safe against Bo. Onto the Divisional Round!

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,600

Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are the truth! Burrow threw 34 touchdowns this year, 13 of them to Chase. Last week Burrow played well in his playoff debut, throwing two touchdowns and passing for over 240 yards. He peppered Chase with 12 targets, which he converted into nine receptions for 116 yards. This week he faces a Tennessee Titans secondary that finished in the bottom half of the league, giving up 20 touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Burrow’s other target on the outside, Tee Higgins has a 4-6 inch height advantage over Titan cornerbacks. The Bengals are currently three-point road underdogs, indicating that this game projects to be a back and forth contest that should keep Burrow passing throughout. Lock him in for Cash.

RB – Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans – $7,500

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – OCTOBER 31: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans warms up before a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Derrick Henry hasn’t played a snap since breaking a bone in his foot in Week 8. This week he is set to officially return to the Titans lineup against the Bengals and DraftKings priced him up at $7,500. Cheap by previous King Henry prices, but still the most expensive running back by $700. We all know Henry’s upside and understand his potential. There are risks embedded in his price, so if any word leaks from Titans camp that he might be limited at all in the game pivot, but I am not worried. Henry is a playoff stud!

RB – Devin Singletary – Buffalo Bills – $5,900

Devin Singletary is the Buffalo Bills RB1. Finally, after three years, it’s “Mission Accomplished!!” Singletary has been on a tear, no pun intended, the last five weeks. He’s touched the ball 94 times, has rushed for 404 yards and scored eight touchdowns. He’s currently priced at only $5,900, yet he’s the RB1 in the highest-scoring offense remaining in the playoffs, and oh, did I mention the touchdowns? Bo has been fading Singletary, while I have been using him to beat him. Once again I am going to the well, instincts don’t fail me now! 

WR –  Odell Beckham Jr. – LA Rams – $5,300

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Los Angeles Rams reacts during the second quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card Play off game at SoFi Stadium on January 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Odell Beckham Jr. has found a role for himself in the LA Rams’ offense. Last week he caught all four of his targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. This week OBJ faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary that Matthew Stafford torched early this season for over 200 yards passing and two touchdowns. Cooper Kupp performed so well earlier this season (nine receptions for 96 yards and two touchdowns) that the Buccaneers will be gameplaying to stop him, leaving OBJ with single coverage on the outside and also potentially in the red zone. At only $5,700, I’m Cashing this week and taking my points to the Clash of the Beard and Bellies vault.

WR – JaMarr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals – $7,100

What else can be said about Ja’Marr Chase except that Bo ruined my stack attack this week by rostering Chase in his Clash of the Beards and Bellies Build? No surprise given that Chase is one of the top upside plays for the Divisional Playoff Round, and because Bo loves tormenting me with his roster moves each week. Thankfully Bo only copied one of my picks this week, so we can finally separate the Beards from the Bellies.

WR – Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – $7,600

ARLINGTON, TX – JANUARY 16: Deebo Samuel #19 of the San Francisco 49ers runs after making a catch during the NFC Wild Card Playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on January 16, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. The 49ers defeated the Cowboys 23-17. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

Is Deebo Samuel a wide receiver masquerading as a running back or a running back masquerading as a wide receiver? Whether you label him a “Wide Back” or a “Running Receiver” the man averaged over 22 DraftKings points per game in the regular season and scored 20 last week in a defensive struggle against the Dallas Cowboys. There are so many reasons to like Deebo this week. PFF projects San Francisco with a decided run blocking advantage over the Green Bay Packers. Deebo has eight rushing touchdowns in the regular season, and one last week as well. Deebo also had over 1,400 receiving yards. There is no game script that does not include Deebo. He’s a Cash game must this week.

TE – Tyler Higbee – LA Rams – $4,000

I’m not in love with Tyler Higbee this week, but I love the game script, the price, the opportunity, the touchdown upside, Cooper Kupp leverage, who Bo is playing this week. At only $4,000 Higbee is a value play who has a good chance to score double-digit points. He’s averaging 13.25 DraftKings points per game over his last four games. And as mentioned before, his success directly takes away opportunity from his best play, Cooper Kupp.

Flex – Isaiah McKenzie – Buffalo Bills – $3,500

Isaiah McKenzie’s role in the Buffalo Bill offense is expanding. Last week he caught all four of his targets out of the slot. Cole Beasley was targeted one time. This week’s game on the road against the Chiefs will be different, but McKenzie is playing well and will be needed to take down the twice-defending AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs. I love McKenzie in space with the ball in his hands. He is fast and has big-play ability every time he touches the ball. At only 3,500, he’s a perfect addition to my winning lineup.

DST – San Francisco 49ers – $2,500

The 49ers are the cheapest DST this week, hence the inclusion in my lineup. I do like the possibility of a snow game, as of now, there’s a 50/50 chance according to weather reports for Sunday. The ball always has a funny way of bouncing, hopefully, it’s into the arms of a 49ers player taking it back to the house.

Featured

Nimble GPP: Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Divisional Weekend! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $7,600

MIAMI, FL – DECEMBER 02: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills leads the team on to the field prior to the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium on December 2, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Josh Allen started the playoffs where he left off the regular season, as the DraftKings QB1. He scored 41.9 points last week, besting Patrick Mahomes by 0.8. This week the two top-scoring quarterbacks square off in Arrowhead Stadium for the second time this year. I like them both this week, but Allen has the better defense behind him and Mahomes has a history of first-half home struggles. Allen’s rushing upside is undeniable as he’s averaging 68 yards per game over his last six games. Allen’s ability to move the pocket cost the Chiefs in their first matchup, giving up a long touchdown to tight end Dawson Knox on a blown coverage. Allen passed for three scores and added another on the ground, scoring 39.5 points in their Week 5 matchup.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,600

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JANUARY 02: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates after the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Paul Brown Stadium on January 02, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Remember when everyone criticized the Bengals and Joe Burrow for drafting Ja’Marr Chase over Penei Sewell? We are laughing, oh my, funny times really. Joe Burrow was eclectic in 2021, throwing 36 touchdowns and for almost 5,000 yards (4,855) in his sophomore campaign. Ja’Marr Chase was the number one reason for his success, snatching 13 touchdowns and breaking Justin Jefferson’s 1,400 rookie receiving record in the process. Enough good things cannot be said about the football these two played this year together. shades of the 2019 LSU National Championship season come to life in the NFL. The Bengals and Burrow head into Tennessee this week as three-point road underdogs. The Titans’ defense is one of the best at stopping the run, bad news for Joe Mixon fans, but they are susceptible to the passing attack. The Titans secondary ranks 31st in the NFL this season, giving up 41 points per game to wide receivers. Practically speaking it looked like 20 touchdowns and over 3,200 receiving yards. I’m not sure why more people aren’t aware of this. Oh, well.

Value – Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, LA Rams – $6,200

Matthew Stafford passed for 41 touchdowns in the regular season. Tom Brady only threw two more, for perspective. Stafford’s best DraftKings performance came in Week 3 against the Buccaneers defense when he passed for 343 yards and four touchdowns. I’m not expecting a repeat performance, but $6,200 is great value considering that Tom Brady is $600 more expensive and is missing a few of his weapons. With the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. and the return of running back Cam Akers, Stafford is loaded with offensive options this week. Stacking him with Cooper Kupp is always an option, the two combined for 96 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. I prefer the contrarian play of stacking him with the $5,300 OBJ and a $4,000 Tyler Higbee. My reasoning is, the Buccaneers will make adjustments to stop Kupp from running wild against them like he did in Week 3. Single coverage in single-high safety looks should be available to Stafford. If he connects, you win, big.

High Priced – Running Back

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans – $7,500

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: Running back Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans rushes in front of cornerback Taron Johnson #24 of the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Derrick Henry is back, just named the starting running back for this week’s Divisional Round Playoff game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Henry returns to a Titans team that flourished in his absence playing smash-mouth football. Henry is the King of smash-mouth football, he should fit right in. Not surprisingly, Henry is the most expensive running back on the DraftKings main slate at $7,500. He’s still $1,100 cheaper than Cooper Kupp and $1,000 less than Davante Adams, making him a bit of a value if you are establishing the run and building your team around running backs this week instead of high-priced wide receivers. The Bengals ranked 21st against opposing running backs this year, having given up 2,181 total yards and 16 total touchdowns. Henry should be able to find the end-zone and the 100-yard bonus is definitely in play for this home playoff game.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills – $5,900

The Buffalo Bills are the most explosive and dynamic offense in the playoffs due to Josh Allen’s ability to move the ball downfield. Devin Singletary has become the RB1 in Buffalo over the last month of the season. He’s rushed for over 404 yards and has scored eight touchdowns in the past five games. The Chiefs ranked 20th against running backs this season, giving up 23.70 fantasy points per game. I expect Singletary to get 20 touches in a game that should see plenty of high-value scoring opportunities given the 54 point total. At only $5,900, Singletary once again has the potential to be a top-three back this week at a discounted cost. I’m playing him in-game stacks with Josh Allen and also running him back in my Chief stacks.

Value – Running Back

Cam Akers, LA Rams – $5,500

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Cam Akers #23 of the Los Angeles Rams runs with the ball in the first quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at SoFi Stadium on January 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Cam Akers returned last week to the LA Rams backfield after rupturing his Achilles in July of 2021. The return was remarkable before he set foot on the field, but it became legendary after seeing Akers form fully restored. He looked great, bursting through holes, making tacklers miss, and touching the ball 18 times. This week he’s priced at only $5,500 and could see an increased workload in this potentially high-scoring game against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – $8,500

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – DECEMBER 25: Davante Adams #17 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates a touchdown during a game against the Cleveland Browns at Lambeau Field on December 25, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Browns 24-22. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

According to PFF, Davante Adams has the best wide receiver/cornerback matchup of this week’s Divisional Round. Adams has a decided size and speed advantage, 30lbs to be exact, over both San Francisco cornerbacks. Rookie Ambry Thomas, PFF’s 108th graded corner, with a score of 52.2 will be primarily tasked with stopping Adams. If Shanahan was smart, he will shadow cover Adams like Baltimore did earlier this season. But I don’t expect that to happen, and even if it does, Adams and Rodgers will find a way to beat it. The only things stopping Adams this week will be when the clock runs out. Adams is currently picking up only 23% rostership compared to 46% for Cooper Kupp. That’s the definition of leverage.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills – $6,500

BUFFALO, NEW YORK – JANUARY 15: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills takes a moment prior to a game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on January 15, 2022 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

Stefon Diggs priced at $6,500 is almost as wild as Tyreek Hill priced at only $6,600. The major difference is that Buffalo has the top-rated defense against wide receivers and the Kansas City Chiefs rank 22nd, having given up 20 total touchdowns and over 2,600 receiving yards. The Bills on the other hand gave up 1,894 receiving yards and only six total touchdowns. Be happy other people are chasing the Tyreek Hill chalk and “Stefon Diggs” it to them, as he did to the New Orleans Saints a few years ago. If you are worried about Diggs’ lack of production last week against the New England Patriots, don’t be. He wasn’t needed. This week he will most definitely be needed. Look for Diggs to see 8-10 targets and score 18-20 points.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals – $5,700

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JANUARY 15: Tee Higgins #85 of the Cincinnati Bengals drops a reception against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of the AFC Wild Card playoff game at Paul Brown Stadium on January 15, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Tee Higgins has one of the best size matchups this week against the Tennessee Titans. Jackrabbit Jenkins is 5’10” and Tee Higgins is 6’4” so that’s going to be a problem for the Titans on the outside and in the red zone. The good news for Higgins is that Ja’Marr Chase has been playing out of his mind this season, so he should see plenty of one-on-one matchups on the outside. Higgins has been the definition of “Boom or Bust” scoring 11 combined points the last two weeks, after scoring 46.4 in Week 16. Feast or famine, this week is trending towards feast and at only $5,700 it appears he’s an extra value meal.

Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo Bills – $3,500

Isaiah McKenzie is a bonus play this week! His $3,500 price tag makes him a perfect dart-throw in GPP contests if you want to spend up at wide receiver or tight end. Stacking him with Josh Allen or playing him as a run-back option in a Bills/Chiefs game-stack makes the most sense, but playing him as a one-off is also an option.

High Priced – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,800

TAMPA, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 07: Rob Gronkowski #87 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium on February 07, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers defeated the Chiefs 31-9. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Rob Gronkowski has 26 targets, 19 receptions, 282 receiving yards, and one touchdown in his last three games. It’s clear that without Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, Tom Brady is leaning on Gronk and he is averaging 16 DraftKings points per game. In a blatant attempt to drive increased rostership, they priced him at only $5,800, all but ensuring he will be popular. I don’t mind eating the chalk on Gronk as long as he’s stacked with Brady, otherwise, I’m playing cheaper options.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – $4,900

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 07: Tight end Dawson Knox #88 of the Buffalo Bills dives for a touchdown during the second quarter of a game against the San Francisco 49ers at State Farm Stadium on December 07, 2020 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Dawson Knox’s signature game this season came in Week 5 against the Kansas City Chiefs, catching three passes for 117 yards and a now-infamous touchdown over Daniel Sorensen. The Chiefs’ defense did get better the second half of the season, but Sorensen didn’t and the matchup is still very much exploitable. Dawson Knox scored two touchdowns last week, btw, if that matters for anything. I’m grateful that DraftKings priced him up a whole $100 after he scored 25.9 points per game. Stacking him with Josh Allen is my favorite way to play Knox, but he’s not lineup dependent on Allen and can be played without him.

Value – Tight End

C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals – $3,400

C.J. Uzomah was a great GPP/Cash play last week, scoring a touchdown and racking up 18 points and only costing you $3,200. This week he’s only priced up $200, making him another high-value GPP play at only $3,400. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgin pushing the boundaries on the outside of the field, we’ve seen it create opportunities and open up the middle of the field for Uzomah. His speed and size make him a dangerous red-zone option for Joe Burrow as we saw last week against the Raiders. If you are paying down for tight end, he’s your guy.

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Featured

Clash of the Beards & Bellies

Hey Siri, Play Invincible by TOOL

In a 21st century remix of Donny and Marie, I’m a little bit country and a little bit thrash metal. I’m feeling grizzled and battered from the DFS battlefield after this season like the warrior from TOOL’s amazing track, Invincible. With a heavy shield, I am struggling to remain consequential after losing three-consecutive Clashes to end the regular season.

But alas, I don’t really fear Scott’s ability to stack up with my strongest suit: small slates. I tried to convince him that we should break the playoff Clash into smaller daily and Showdown slates, but he was rightly suspicious and insisted on the full six games this weekend. No bother, I’ll dismantle him either way.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,400

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 11: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his touchdown reception against the New York Giants during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium on October 11, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

Far too many people are crowning the 49ers as a potential Cinderella story after their comeback against the Rams to barely sneak into the playoffs. Although Dallas doesn’t match up too well with San Francisco on defense, they wield a tremendous advantage at quarterback and wide receiver against the 25th-best secondary in the NFL. Dak will be throwing to wide-open receivers all afternoon behind the league’s best offensive line. Big Dak Energy and huge passing numbers are incoming in a convincing Dallas win.

RB – Leonard Fournette – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900

PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 14: Leonard Fournette #7 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs the ball against Alex Singleton #49 of the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 14, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Playoff Lenny is expected to be activated and unleashed at the perfect time. Philadelphia has absolutely no business in the postseason and will need to play perfect football to even cover the spread against Tampa Bay. Philly’s run defense is awful and they are even worse at covering running backs out of the backfield. Fournette will feast, even at 80% health.

RB – Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,800

CINCINNATI, OHIO – OCTOBER 10: Joe Mixon #28 of the Cincinnati Bengals runs for a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers at Paul Brown Stadium on October 10, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

The attention is deservedly going to Joe Burrow and the Cincy passing attack, but the Raiders are most worried about the guy who thrashed them earlier in the season. Mixon was a workhorse against Vegas, compiling over 120 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries. The Raiders defense is better suited to cover Jamarr Chase up, but they don’t have the big boys to keep Mixon from battering them.

WR – Jauan Jennings – San Franciso 49ers – $3,800

Jennings has been a very impressive riser this season for the Niners, beating out Brandon Aiyuk for targets in recent weeks. It might be due to Jimmy Garoppolo’s very poor ability to read defenses, but I like Jennings down under $4k to easily hit 3x value against a Dallas secondary that struggles to prevent yards after the catch.

WR – CeeDee Lamb– Dallas Cowboys – $6,200

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 22: CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys pulls in a touchdown pass against Jeff Gladney #20 of the Minnesota Vikings during their game at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 22, 2020 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)

The 49ers cannot cover CeeDee Lamb. He will draw coverage from the dried-up shell of Josh Norman and a bunch of second-string Nickel corners. The Cowboys double stack is my way of encapsulating the bulk of points scored in a high-total affair.

WR – Cedrick Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $4,400

Ced is producing more consistently than Amari Cooper these days (shocker) and more than tight end Dalton Schultz. His chemistry with Dak is obvious. I have Wilson as the best points-per-dollar play at any position on the entire slate. He is also my preferred stacking option with Dak if I go skinny.

TE – Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,300

Just as Matthew Berry poignantly tweeted earlier this week: Death, Taxes, and tight ends scoring against the Eagles. Gronk has been a target monster the last month. He has needed to be, with Godwin and Brown floating away in ashes. Brady and Gronk in the playoffs? Against the worst defense in the playoffs? Sign me up.

FLEX – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,100

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 14: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefswalks off the field after a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

A minor heel injury is shaping up to make Hill a nice little leverage play this weekend in GPPs. I just love that. He didn’t do much against Pittsburgh earlier in the season, but I just have a feeling that the Cheetah is on the verge of a Hiroshima-level explosion on Joe Haden and the Yinzers.

DST – Cincinnati Bengals – $3,000

Derek Carr has zero playoff wins in his career, so why is everyone seemingly predicting the Raiders to upset the hottest team in the NFL? I don’t get it. I believe this defense will force a bunch of Vegas turnovers and correlate perfectly with Mixon. Cincinnati will embarrass the Raiders on Saturday and send them back to Sin City with their mascara and eyeliner running.

Playoff Football!!

Last week I completed my regular season comeback, winning my third straight against Bo, and deadlocking our DraftKings H2h season series at nine wins apiece. I had never beaten Bo three times in a row, as a matter of fact, he beat me eight straight times last season. It was a dark time for the Nimble empire. I know Jeff Fischer isn’t proud of going 8-8, but your boy is thrilled to be .500 against a Cash game monster like Bo McBrayer.

Over the four remaining playoff rounds, we will be total our scores to see who has the most points at the end of Super Bowl Sunday. I’d say let the best man win, but we all know that would be Bo, so instead I will say let fortune favor the bold and may I all my deep balls be caught and all Bo’s dropped. Now excuse me while I spend my whole MLK weekend watching the NFL Super Wild Card games! If this isn’t heaven, I dont know what is.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,400

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 14: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his rushing touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

According to RunTheSims.com, Dak Prescott has the best point per dollar value for any quarterback on the DraftKings main slate. Dak’s weapons are also extremely reasonably priced, CeeDee Lamb at $6,200, Amari Cooper at $5,900, and my favorite stacking option, Cedric Wilson at only $4,400. Dalton Schultz is also a value at $5,000. Double stacking Dak makes the most sense given the 50.5 game total and Dallas ranking first in the NFL, averaging 31.2 points per game. The 27 points implied team total is tied for the second-most this week with Tom Brady and the Bucs. The San Francisco 49ers defense surrendered 29 total touchdowns to quarterbacks and ended the regular season ranked 23rd agaisnt wide receivers. This game should be the highest-scoring game on the slate and and I want in!

RB – Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,800

In three career games vs. the Raiders franchise, Joe Mixon has rushed 72 times for 338 yards and five touchdowns. In Week 11 this season, Mixon lit the Raiders up for 27.3 DraftKings points, rushing 30 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Mixon averaged 18.6 DraftKings points per game this season and is a great value at only $6,800. The Raiders finished the regular season ranked 30th against running backs, giving up over 2,200 total yards and 23 total touchdowns. The Bengals are currently six-point home favorites against the Raiders with a 26.5 implied team total. Time to establish the run.

RB – Leonard Fournette – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900

Leonard Fournette smashed the Philadelphia Eagles back in Week 6, turning 28 touches into two touchdowns and 30.7 DraftKings points. Fournette has been sidelined since the last month, recovering from a hamstring injury in Week 15 against New Orleans. Fournette has been practicing this week and looks to retain his starting running back role on Sunday. There are no indications that Fournette will be on a snap count, but don’t be surprised if folks are hesitant to pull him into their lineups. You know what they say, Fournette favors the bold.

WR – Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – $8,100

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 19: Deebo Samuel #19 of the San Francisco 49ers reacts after a play against the Green Bay Packers during the NFC Championship game at Levi’s Stadium on January 19, 2020 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Deebo Samuel is the truth! The man is a just built different. His eight rushing touchdowns tie him with running backs Nick Chubb, Melvin Gordan, and James Robinson on the seaon. His six receiving touchdowns and 1,405 receiving yards help make him an NFL ALL-PRO. Hell, he even throw a touchdown pass this season. The Dallas Cowboys don’t have an answer for the skillset Deebo possesses. The 49ers will look to utilize Deebo in the red-zone as a rusher and as a field strecher to move the ball downfield. I’m all in this week!

WR –  CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys – $6,200

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 22: CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates with teammate Michael Gallup #13 following a touchdown reception during their game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 22, 2020 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

CeeDee Lamb priced at only $6,200 is a steal this week. After being forgotten the last few weeks, Lamb should see plenty of volume against the San Francisco 49ers. Stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb is the play this week against a 49ers defense that relies heavily on zone coverage. Dwain McFarland from PFF tweeted that Lamb has a 22% target rate versus man coverage this season, with a staggering 32% target per routs run against single looks. CeeDee’s TD’!!

WR – Cedric Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $4,400

Cedric Wilson priced at only $4,400 is a glaring DraftKings oversight this week, but then all DraftKing players’ prices are trending low this week. Wilson has filled in nicely for an injured Michael Gallup, catching 11 of 12 passes for 154 yards, and three touchdowns in two games. He’s averaging 25.3 points in those two games and has been Dallas’s highest-scoring wide receiver the last two weeks. Shocker, Bo played him this week as well (eye roll).

TE – Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – $6,700

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 10: Buffalo Bills outside linebacker A.J. Klein (54) looks to tackle Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) in the third quarter of an NFL football game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs on Oct 10, 2021 at GEHA Filed at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Travis Kelce quietly finished second in tight end scoring this season, averaging 17.2 points per game. He caught 92 of 134 targets for 1,125 yards and nine scores, good enough to finish as the WR9 ahead of Keenan Allen, Hunter Renfrow, and Mike Evans. Let Bo fade him this week, it will be his undoing.

Flex – Camerson Brate – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $2,900

Camero Brate is my flex because he’s the best available player with the most upside and also because he is leverage agaisnt a Gronk explosion. Brate has seen steady target volume the last five weeks, averaging 3.6 targets per game. Brady has connected with him four times for touchdowns this year. Here’s to hoping he scores his fifth this week against the Eagles.

DST – LA Rams – $2,700

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 01: Aaron Donald #99 of the Los Angeles Rams waits to take the field against the Miami Dolphins during their NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium on November 01, 2020 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

The LA Rams defense is priced at $2,700. The disrespect. Arron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and company are currently the NFL’s top-rated defense according to PFF. Kyler Murray without his best weapon, DeAndre Hopkins, is still dangerous, making this a bit of a risky GPP like play agaisnt Bo. It’s the playoffs, go big or go home.

Featured

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to the NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – $7,300

KANSAS CITY, MO – SEPTEMBER 26: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs shouts to the crowd prior to the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium on September 26, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Patrick Mahomes ($7,400) has been the best quarterback in the NFL against the AFC for the last two seasons. Over the course of four games against the Texans, Titans, Browns, and Bills, Mahomes has thrown for 1,195 yards, 14 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Now he faces a Pittsburgh team that he dismantled in Week 16, completing 23 of 30 passes for 258 yards, three touchdowns, and a 134.14 passer rating. Big Ben already came out and all but admitted the Chiefs are going to win this game, the only real question is will be Steelers be able to put enough points on the board to keep Mahomes throwing all game. If they do, Mahomes could break the slate this week.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys– $6,400

According to RunTheSims.com, Dak Prescott has the best point per dollar value for any quarterback on the DraftKings main slate. Dak’s weapons are also extremely reasonably priced, CeeDee Lamb at $6,200, Amari Cooper at $5,900, and my favorite stacking option, Cedric Wilson at only $4,400. Dalton Schultz is also a value at $5,000. Double stacking Dak makes the most sense given the 50.5 game total and Dallas ranking first in the NFL, averaging 31.2 points per game. The 27 points implied team total is tied for the second-most this week with Tom Brady and the Bucs. The San Francisco 49ers defense surrendered 29 total touchdowns to quarterbacks and ended the regular season ranked 23rd agaisnt wide receivers. This game should be the highest-scoring game on the slate and I want multiple players from this game in my GPP lineup.

Value – Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, LA Rams – $6,300

Sep 12, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) celebrates in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Matthew Stafford and the LA Rams face the Arizona Cardinals for the third time this year Monday night at SoFi Stadium. Matthew Stafford has passed for 567 yards and five touchdowns in those two games. The Arizona Cardinals rank 29th against wide receivers this season, giving up 38 points per game. They led the league, but not in a good way, giving up 27 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers as well. It’s no secret that Cooper Kupp was the number one fantasy point producer in all of football in 2021. Playing Matthew Stafford means stacking him with Kupp this week. In week 14, Stafford and Kupp connected 13 times for 123 yards and a touchdown, good for 34.3 DraftKings points. Need I say more?

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High Priced – Running Back

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,800

In three career games vs. the Raiders franchise, Joe Mixon has rushed 72 times for 338 yards and five touchdowns. In Week 11 this season, Mixon lit the Raiders up for 27.3 DraftKings points, rushing 30 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Mixon averaged 18.6 DraftKings points per game this season and is a great value at only $6,800. The Raiders finished the regular season ranked 30th against running backs, giving up over 2,200 total yards and 23 total touchdowns. The Bengals are currently six-point home favorites against the Raiders with a 26.5 implied team total. If you do not choose to run out a Burrow stack with either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, make sure you roster Joe Mixon in your build.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900

Leonard Fournette smashed the Philadelphia Eagles back in Week 6, turning 28 touches into two touchdowns and 30.7 DraftKings points. Fournette has been sidelined since the last month, recovering from a hamstring injury in Week 15 against New Orleans. Fournette has been practicing this week and looks to retain his starting running back role on Sunday. There are no indications that Fournette will be on a snap count, but don’t be surprised if folks are hesitant to pull him into their lineups. You know what they say, Fournette favors the bold.

Value – Running Back

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals – $5,000

BREAKING NEWS: James Conner has missed practice all week, has been labeled with the dreaded “game-time decision” by Kliff Kingsbury and is trending towards sitting out with an injured rib. Welcome back Chase Edmonds at only $5,000!! If Conner does miss the game, Edmonds becomes one of the best values at running back with week. RunTheSims.com projects Edmonds for the seconds most running back points if Conner were to miss the game. The Rams are stout against the pass but have been susceptible to running backs all season. In Week 4, Edmonds gashed the Rams for 120 yards on only 12 carries. For all you non-math majors, that’s 10 yards per carry, and it translated into 20.9 DraftKings points. That’s good, right?

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Cooper Kupp, LA Rams – $9,000

Cooper Kupp’s 27.8 DraftKings points per game were the most of any player in 2021, quarterbacks included. Even more impressive, Kupp won the receiving triple crown, leading the league in receptions (145), yards (1,947), and touchdowns (16). At $9,000, Kupp is the highest-priced player on the DraftKings main slate by $900 this week, and rightly so. In two games agaisnt the Cardinals, he has seen 28 targets. Kupp’s 191 targets were 22 more than the next closest receiver, which happened to be Davante Adams. Adjust your ranks.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – $6,200

CeeDee Lamb priced at only $6,200 is a steal this week. After being forgotten the last few weeks, Lamb should see plenty of volume against the San Francisco 49ers. Stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb is the play this week against a 49ers defense that relies heavily on zone coverage. Dwain McFarland from PFF tweeted that Lamb has a 22% target rate versus man coverage this season, with a staggering 32% target per routs run against single looks. CeeDee’s TD’!!

Value – Wide Receiver 

Cedric Wilson, Dallas Cowboys – $4,400

Cedric Wilson priced at $4,400 seems like a mistake, but then all DraftKing players’ prices are trending low this week. Wilson has filled in nicely for an injured Michael Gallup, catching 11 of 12 passes for 154 yards, and three touchdowns in two games. He’s averaging 25.3 points in those two games and has been Dallas’s highest-scoring wide receiver the last two weeks. I’m double stacking Dak with Wilson and one other Dallas pass-catcher in all of my builds.

High Priced – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,400

Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady have combined for career 104 passing/receiving touchdowns, 14 of those coming in the playoffs. With Tom Brady missing both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, Gronk has stepped up the last two weeks, catching 14 of 20 targets for 252 yards. Brady and Gronk can kill you with touchdowns or volume. If the touchdowns and the volume come, HOLY HELL its gonna be BIG BABY!!!

Mid-Range – Tight End

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders– $5,700

Good news, Darren Waller returned to the Las Vegas Raiders lineup last week and was immediately peppered with nine targets. Bad news, he turned those nine targets into two receptions for 22 yards and only 4.2 DraftKings points. Waller did play in Week 11 against the Bengals earlier in the season, and he performed well, catching seven of eight targets for 116 yards and 21.6 DraftKings points. Waller hasn’t been this cheap since the Trump administration, if he is fully healthy, watch out. Don’t kid yourself, Waller is a high-risk, high-reward play. But I, for one, am banking on him blowing up. The Bengals gave up over 1,000 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season. Just saying.

Value – Tight End

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals – $4,700

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 25: Zach Ertz #86 of the Arizona Cardinals celebrates a first down against the Indianapolis Colts during the second quarter at State Farm Stadium on December 25, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

Over the last four weeks, Zach Ertz has emerged as Kyler Murray’s go-to guy, being targeted 43 times or 10.75 times per game. Ertz has scored double-digit DraftKings points in all four games. Murray and the Cardinals are currently four-point road underdogs, which could mean a negative game script and increased opportunity for Ertz in the passing game. I’m not opposed to stacking him with Murray, but will also be playing him as a one-off in smaller GPP contests.

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Featured

Clash of the Beards & Bellies

Paging Jeff Fisher

I have unwillingly made this series very interesting. No more jokes. It’s incredibly irritating to have one single lineup completely bomb among 13 that were good enough to cash. That one lineup, for two weeks running, has been my Clash build.

It’s like that one episode of Family Guy, where Stewie cloned himself. He purposefully made his clone “Bitch Stewie” less intelligent so he would willingly do all his chores for him without question. Bitch Stewie eventually fell apart into a pile of goop because he was so unstable (and pooped in the bathtub). My Clash lineups have been precisely Bitch Stewie lately.

Week 18 is sure to be a whole hell of a lot of random craziness, but somehow Scott was looking over my shoulder to steal my homework. When we originally shared our Clash lineups (without any collaboration whatsoever), we had five matches. Guess I’ll have to sweep my house for hidden cameras (again). I really don’t want to be tied at nine wins apiece heading into the playoffs, so we’re breaking out the desperation lineup.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Tyler Huntley – Baltimore Ravens – $5,700

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – JANUARY 02: Quarterback Tyler Huntley #2 of the Baltimore Ravens passes the ball against the Los Angeles Rams at M&T Bank Stadium on January 02, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

The growth we have seen from Huntley in just a month of starting in place of Lamar Jackson has been staggering. Coming out of Utah, he was the epitome of a project. Now, he’s firmly in place as a clean step down from Lamar in this offense, instead of a cliff. The Steelers aren’t as good on defense as the Browns made them look on Monday. Huntley will have a great fantasy game.

RB – Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $8,300

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 02: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints breaks a tackle in the fourth quarter of the game against the Carolina Panthers at Caesars Superdome on January 02, 2022 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Scott is getting the double-barrel stud running back approach this week. The Saints get the Falcons this week in a win-and-in scenario. I believe the tandem of Kamara with Taysom Hill will obliterate this non-existent front-seven for Atlanta. Kamara is the top running back on my board in PPR ceiling.

RB – Jonathan Talyor – Indianapolis Colts – $9,300

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – JANUARY 02: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs the ball and is tackled by Trevon Moehrig #25 of the Las Vegas Raiders at Lucas Oil Stadium on January 02, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

JT wrapped up his rookie season last year with a 253-yard destruction of the Jaguars. He is 266 yards shy of 2,000 on the season and the Colts are playing the Jags again for their playoff lives. The writing is on the wall and JT has the most elegant penmanship.

WR – A.J. Brown – Tennessee Titans – $7,000

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – JANUARY 2: A.J. Brown #11 of the Tennessee Titans celebrates after catching a pass during a game against the Miami Dolphins at Nissan Stadium on January 2, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Dolphins 34-3. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

I sincerely hope we see a bit of Derrick Henry this week. Regardless, this offense runs through AJB. The Titans can clinch the all-important top seed in the AFC and accompanying first round bye with a win on Sunday. They would be crazy to not feed this monolith from Mississippi.

WR – Deonte Harris – New Orleans Saints – $3,200

Harris wasn’t a factor last week, after missing offensive installation practice with COVID. The short passing game will belong to him and Kamara on Sunday. Harris’ speed and elusiveness is endearing to Sean Payton. He should easily exceed 3x value on Sunday.

WR – Ray-Ray McCloud lll – Miami Dolphins – $3,800

I don’t love many wide receivers under $4k this week, but I do love the bonanza of low-quality targets that McCloud is getting. This is a low-ceiling play unless McCloud somehow breaks one or scores, but for PPR it’s okay I guess.

TE – Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – $7,500

BALTIMORE, MD – JANUARY 02: Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) makes a reception against Los Angeles Rams defensive back David Long Jr. (22) during the Los Angeles Rams game versus the Baltimore Ravens on January 2, 2022 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

I decided early on that I was going to try and beat Scott with Stars and Scrubs. Who’s a bigger star on this slate than Mark freaking Andrews? With Huntley at quarterback, Andrews is commanding a workload that has vaulted him into the Travis Kelce tier. With the way he is rolling, I wouldn’t trust any other tight end on this slate to get me where I want to go.

FLEX – Jonnu Smith – New England Patriots – $2,500

Would you believe that Jonnu is on the field more than Hunter Henry? Looking at the receiving stats, you would never guess it. Smith is still a supremely gifted athlete (and a well-compensated one). His curse is his elite blocking skill, where Henry cannot provide as much for the Patriots to win games. I might have been dead wrong about Jonnu’s usage for season long fantasy, but I have a hunch he will score this week, now that the fantasy season is over.

DST – Cleveland Browns – $2,600

Let me take you back to Week 9. The Bengals were hosting the Browns, and the Cleveland defense held the jungle tigers to 16 points. They sacked Joe Burrow five times, intercepted him twice, and recovered a fumble. They even scored a DST touchdown, giving them a very nice 18 fantasy points on the day. Cincinnati is starting Brandon Allen and Samaje Perine this week in a meaningless game for them. I think the Dogs will be barking here at a great value.

Call It a Comeback!!!

We have finally reached the last week of the regular season and agaisnt all mathematical odds, I am only one win behind Bo in our season long DraftKings H2H contest. Bo has nine wins and I have eight wins. It’s officially a comeback, as Bo has been stuck on nine wins since the Biden administration took over. I’ve inched my way back after being down three losses twice this year and with only a few weeks left to decided the official winner of the Clash of the Beards and Bellies, its anyones’ game!! Clutch your pearls Bo, this drama is a coming down to the wire. May the best man win!!

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Tyler Huntley – Baltimore Ravens – $5,700

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – JANUARY 02: Quarterback Tyler Huntley #2 of the Baltimore Ravens rushes past free safety Taylor Rapp #24 of the Los Angeles Rams at M&T Bank Stadium on January 02, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Tyler Huntley mans the helm this week for the Baltimore Ravens against their hated division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Technically both teams have a microscopic chance of making the NFL post-season, but more than likely this game is just for pride and fun. Huntley played well last week but just wasn’t able to punch the ball into the end-zone against a stout LA Rams defense. The Steelers are not the Rams and Huntley and the Ravens should be able to score touchdowns this week instead of future HOF Justin Tucker field goals. I’m stacking Huntley with Andrews and/or Rashod Batemen.

RB – Devin Singletary – Buffalo Bills – $6,000

ORCHARD PARK, NY – JANUARY 02: Devin Singletary #26 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball against the Atlanta Falcons at Highmark Stadium on January 2, 2022 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

Devin Singletary is $6,000 and the New York Jets are dead last in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs. This year they have allowed over 2,700 combined rushing and receiving yards and 26 total touchdowns. Devin Singletary rushed 23 times for over 100 yards last week. Another good sign this week that there should be plenty of volume for him in a game that the Bills are favored to win by 16.5 points. Bo’s hatred for Singletary makes this play all the more ironic.

RB – Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts – $9,300

Jonathan Taylor needs 266 yards to reach 2,000 rushing yards and he might actually get it this weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Whose fans, btw are planning on dressing up as clowns this week to mock their owner Shahid Khan. I know Taylor is expensive, but he did score 27 points in Week 10 the last time he play the Jags. I knew Bo would have him as well and I could not miss out in case he goes nuclear on Sunday.

WR – Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,100

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – JANUARY 02: Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is tackled on a carry by Bryce Hall #37 of the New York Jets during the second half of the game at MetLife Stadium on January 02, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Mike Evans is my lotto ticket against Bo this week. With all of Tom Brady’s wide receivers either hurt or quitting in the middle of games, Evans finds himself the last man standing in the Buccaneers wide receiving corps. Evans also will not be facing cornerback Stephon Gilmore this week because he is on the NFL’s COVID-19 list. Advantage Tom Brady and Evans. And also, huge advantage for me over Bo. Here’s to Evans grabbing two touchdowns to end the season strong and cement my win over Bo.

WR –  D.J. Moore – Carolina Panthers – $5,800

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 19: D.J. Moore #2 of the Carolina Panthers carries the ball after a catch over Taron Johnson #24 of the Buffalo Bills in the fourth quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Kevin Hoffman/Getty Images)

D.J. Moore is sixth amongst wide receivers with 153 targets this season. All targets are not created equally though, as Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, and Cam Newton have taught us. Still, 10 targets a game in a game environment that will force the Panthers to throw the ball, Moore is a great value at only $5,800. Bo thinks that he’s fools gold this week, can’t wait to see who is right.

WR – Deonte Harris – New Orleans Saints – $3,200

Deonte Harris returned from his suspension last week and caught both of his targets for 23 yards. A good sign given his time away from the offense. This week Harris and the Saints face the 27th ranked Atlanta Falcons secondary who have given up 2,555 yards receiving to wide receivers and 19 total touchdowns. Harris has a perfect price to pay off big with just a few touches. I was gutted to see that Bo had him rostered as well.

TE – Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – $7,500

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – JANUARY 02: Mark Andrews #89 of the Baltimore Ravens carries the ball as Jordan Fuller #4 of the Los Angeles Rams defends in the third quarter of the game at M&T Bank Stadium on January 02, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Andrews is the new TE1 in fantasy football. With four games of 29.5, 31, 38, and 44 points this season, Andrews has the explosive upside to win you a tournament and the value to help you crush your Cash game opponent. I want all the Mark Andrews this week and will be stacking him with Huntley in most of my builds. Apparently great minds think alike because Bo is fielding the same stack against me this week in the Clash. Barf.

Flex – John Bates – Washington Football Team – $3,000

The Washington Football Team has targeted the tight end position 100 times this season, or around six times per game. With Ricky Seals-Jones missing practice all week, John Bates will be stepping into the starting tight end role for the WFT this week against the New York Giants. Bates caught a touchdown in week 16, so there is potential for double-digit points from a 3K tight end.

DST – Miami Dolphins – $2,400

The Miami Dolphins are the cheapest paydown defense that I will play this week. I am not expecting much. Just hoping that they can keep the game close and turn Mac Jones over once.

Featured

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Clearly Ambiguous

It might be Week 18, in the aftermath of the most tumultuous fantasy football season in history, but there is one very unique main slate left for us DFS junkies. The DFS lobbies will be teeming with jilted season long losers and cash-flush winners alike.

The GPP sharks’ eyes will roll back into their heads from the alluring scent of fresh blood in the water. They live in a constant state of darkness and chaos, only emerging from their dungeons once the last petal falls from the 2021 campaign. Week 18 will shine light on some of the most obscure names in the NFL in a fleeting seven hours of commercial-free pandemonium.

The final week of the regular season precludes Black Monday, where all of the remaining bad coaches in the league are relieved of their duties. Some of those coaches will empty the clip and put forth a game that leaves listless fans wondering where that was all season. The others are lame ducks, their vacant, lifeless eyes peering beyond their doomed team into the distance.

My most successful DFS escapades have come in the final stanza of the season. I still enjoy throwing my hat into the DFS ring for playoff slates and other sports, but nothing beats a main slate sweat with players who haven’t seen this much playing time since college.

This is the final edition of Hot Cash this season. I want to put forth my sincerest thanks to all of you for reading this season. Hopefully, you all were equal parts entertained and enriched by this content. Feel free to send me a DM on Twitter.

Week 18 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

Gold-Plated

JOSH ALLEN: VS NY JETS ($8,100)

You’re going to want to focus on stud players with something meaningful to play for. Last season, the Bills had already locked up the top seed in the AFC going into Week 17. Josh Allen still played nearly the entire game and put up good numbers. This season, they are expected to steamroll the Jets en route to another AFC East title and potential first round bye. Allen will be a spend-up wrecking ball.

Rocking the Suburbs

MATTHEW STAFFORD: VS SAN FRANCISCO ($6,700)

The Rams are sick and tired of losing to the 49ers. Stafford has pulled through with some decent fantasy performances, despite turning the ball over at an alarming rate the last few weeks. Everyone will be focused on Cooper Kupp chasing history. The 49ers won’t be able to prevent Stafford from becoming the quarterback for the two most productive seasons for wide receivers in NFL history.

TAYSOM HILL: @ ATLANTA ($6,200)***

The Saints need a win Sunday. Standing in their way is a hapless Falcons team with a multitude of offseason distractions on the horizon. Hill is a fantasy dynamo, especially when Alvin Kamara is on the field. My projections have Hill as the highest points-per-dollar value on the slate.

Under the Table

TYLER HUNTLEY: VS PITTSBURGH ($5,700)

Right behind Hill on the points-per-dollar chart is the former Utah Ute, Huntley. He ran into a buzz saw with the Rams last week. Although Pittsburgh is decent up front, I can still envision Huntley putting up some serious points on them with a playoff berth on the line and Lamar Jackson not quite ready to go.

Running Backs

Gold-Plated

JONATHAN TAYLOR: @ JACKSONVILLE ($9,300)

You might recall rookie Jonathan Taylor facing the Jaguars in the final regular season game last season. If you weren’t impressed with the young man until that point, his 30 carry, 253 yard, two touchdown performance for the ages definitely brought about an emotional response. Ironically, he faces the Jags again to end the season and is a mere 266 rushing yards shy of 2,000 (with a playoff spot on the line).

ALVIN KAMARA: @ ATLANTA ($8,300)***

I’m all over the Hill-plus-Kamara tandem this week. The Saints can clinch a playoff berth with a win and some help from the Rams in the same late window. I think the rushing volume will be immense for both players, with plenty of the passing volume also falling squarely on Kamara’s shoulders. Atlanta’s front seven is a myth, so don’t fret spending up on AK41 and/or JT this week.

Rocking the Suburbs

DAVID MONTGOMERY: @ MINNESOTA ($6,800)

The DraftKings algorithm has racked up quite the criminal history with a few players this season. Monty is definitely on that list, especially this week. The Vikings and Bears are both out of playoff contention, but rivalries run deep. I also believe Matt Nagy is the type of coach with such supreme arrogance that he still thinks he’s coaching for his job. This will be a good, hard-fought game with Monty running roughshod over the 23rd ranked Minnesota rush defense.

DEVIN SINGLETARY: VS NY JETS ($6,000)

The longstanding sentiment that the Buffalo running game is all Josh Allen has recently been disproven with the emergence of FAU standout, Singletary. I recall watching the little guy dip and dart through the Conference USA under the tutelage of one Lane Kiffin. He has been making the most of his high-value touches the last three weeks, casting aside Zack Moss and Matt Breida after each led the backfield at times this season. I don’t need to tell you to roster running backs against the god damn Jets.

Under the Table

CHRIS EVANS: @ CLEVELAND ($4,400)

Joe Mixon is out for Sunday, relinquishing the backfield to Samaje Perine and the rookie Evans. Early in the season, when Mixon was nicked up, Evans proved to be a very potent part of the passing attack. Perine might be the “starter,” but I’ll always defer to the receiving threat. Joe Burrow is also out, giving Brandon Allen the reins to check down copiously against the Browns.

PATRICK TAYLOR*: @DETROIT ($4,000)

It remains uncertain how much the skill position starters will play for the Packers, given that they’ve already locked up the top seed in the NFC. I would be stunned if it was past halftime. With Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon likely to don street clothes early on, Taylor is an ultra-sneaky min-priced back with plenty of juice. Jordan Love will be check-down Charlie once he is taking the snaps.

Wide Receivers

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 07: Brandin Cooks #13 of the Houston Texans in action against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on November 07, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
Gold-Plated

COOPER KUPP: VS SAN FRANCISCO ($9,700)

It seems apropos that Kupp is chasing down Calvin Johnson’s receiving yards record this week. Megatron’s quarterback that season? Matthew Stafford. Back then, they were trying like hell to get Johnson to 2,000 yards and fell just short. Kupp will get a million targets in this game, both to chase Megatron and Michael Thomas’ 149 reception mark in 2019. Kupp will also be the avenue to which the Rams take to clinch the NFC West and possibly eliminate their bitter rivals from playoff contention.

AJ BROWN: @ HOUSTON ($7,000)***

The Mississippi monolith is the last remaining healthy weapon for Ryan Tannehill. The Titans need a win to lock up the top seed in the AFC and the only first round bye. They hold the tiebreaker over Kansas City by way of smashing them to pieces in Week 7. Even if Derrick Henry isn’t back in a major way this week, I forecast Brown to get a ton of work all over the field against a putrid Texans defense.

Rocking the Suburbs

BRANDIN COOKS: VS TENNESSEE ($6,300)

I tried to tell y’all about Cooks last week. He turned his NorCal reunion into 19.6 DK fantasy points and more than a 3x value. At only a $300 markup this week, and a much more favorable matchup against a bad Titans secondary, I will fire him up once more. Cooks is the most underrated and underappreciated receiver in the NFL. I will not be the one to overlook him and miss out on easy money.

DARNELL MOONEY: @ MINNESOTA ($5,900)

Andy Dalton is great for Mooney. Mooney is great for Justin Fields. Both statements equal Darnell Mooney is good at football. He is a target monster and it cannot be undersold how he has simply performed better than former All-Pro, Allen Robinson. I would love another 13 targets this week, but will settle with more explosive plays against an abysmal Vikings coverage unit.

Under the Table

RAY-RAY MCCLOUD III: @ BALTIMORE ($3,800)

Big Ben’s aDOT was disgusting on Monday night. McCloud has assumed the JuJu Smith-Schuster mid-range role in this offense, except the giant leap in athleticism over JuJu hasn’t been realized because Ben has been so erratic with his targets. Down at this salary, I will still take that 10 target game. Here’s hoping that the bludgeoned Baltimore secondary will relinquish more than 35 receiving yards.

DEONTE HARRIS: @ ATLANTA ($3,200)

I loved Harris last week, but it was unsuccessful. His bout with COVID left him with limited practice reps, which translated into limited snaps on the field. Now with a full week of practice with the first team, we will see the explosive playmaker get some more run from the slot and assume his regular play packages in the Sean Payton offense. This is a steal with massive potential.

Tight Ends

Gold-Plated

MARK ANDREWS: VS PITTSBURGH ($7,500)

Volume pays the bills and Tyler Huntley loves him some Mandrews. The Steelers aren’t slouches against the tight end position. They held Andrews to 9.0 fantasy points earlier in the season. That was with Lamar Jackson running around and torching the back end with Hollywood Brown. I believe there will be a different script to this game.

Rocking the Suburbs

ZACH ERTZ: VS SEATTLE ($5,300)***

I incorrectly assumed that Zach Ertz would score another touchdown in his third game against the Cowboys this season. He still garnered nine targets, catching seven of them for 41 yards. The Seahawks are horrendous in the middle of the field on defense. I can’t envision Ertz not getting another heap of targets in this game with much more upside.

PAT FREIERMUTH: @ BALTIMORE ($4,600)

When Diontae Johnson was placed in COVID protocols yesterday, I had the asterisks next to the Muth as my top play. Diontae was promptly removed from the protocols today, so the Muth is not quite as luth now. He is still a really solid value play at tight end this week, as the Ravens simply cannot cover receivers of any kind. The Steelers’ frustrating brand of high-volume, low efficiency and aDOT passing is going to flood the field in cheap PPR points.

Under the Table

JOSIAH DEGUARA: @ DETROIT ($2,900)

You might not remember this, but DeGuara was the third-round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, after the infamous Jordan Love pick and the less-controversial AJ Dillon in the second. Even if Green Bay pulls their studs early in this game, I do believe they give the Sacramento kid a long, hard look in this game with Love. That way, they might have some clarity in an offseason with many potential uncertainties.

Featured

Clash of the Beards & Bellies

I Got the Deuce-Deuce (In the Trunk of My Car)

Last week was the first loss I’ve ever taken to Scott in Capricorn SZN. Astrologically, this was a devastating defeat. The margin was as narrow as Tutu Atwell’s tutu. As the Roman calendar flips, so too will my strategy. I have blistered ole Scotty Stacks with a more aggressive approach in the past, but I’m rolling into ’22 firing from both hips with ivory-gripped revolvers. The West was won with good old fashioned whiskey-induced violence. This season’s Clash series will be won with a figurative version of the same. I know it will taste sublime…

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Trey Lance – San Francisco 49ers – $4,800

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 28: Trey Lance #5 of the San Francisco 49ers warms up before the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Levi’s Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

It is nearly impossible for a mobile quarterback with a cannon arm, copious weaponry, and a sub-$5k salary to bust. It doesn’t take a squinty-eyed genius to see the advantage to lineup building that Lance provides. Oh wow, even Scott saw it!

RB – Ke’Shawn Vaughn – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,200

I preach the importance of high-value touches in my Hot Cash article every week, so why wouldn’t I put my ramblings into practice this week to essentially close the book on the season series? Rojo is a fine play this week, but I much prefer the explosive Vaughn’s receiving ability and speed over a player who went to USC and frequently draws the ire of Bruce Arians.

RB – Darrel Williams – Kansas City Chiefs – $5,800

KANSAS CITY, MO – DECEMBER 26: Kansas City Chiefs running back Darrel Williams (31) is tackled by Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Arthur Maulet (35) in the first quarter of an NFL game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs on Dec 26, 2021 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Just like Vaughn, I can spend less salary to get a valuable piece of an explosive offense who is more entrusted with receiving work by his head coach. Darrel Williams isn’t flashy, but he does command those precious receiving touches for the Chiefs over CEH. Scott will bleed out from a thousand PPR cuts.

WR – Bryan Edwards – Las Vegas Raiders – $3,300

You might not have known this about me, but I have had a dart board in my garage for a long time. I can really fling ’em. I have dominated Scott all season, thanks to deadly accuracy on these dart throw receivers. Indy’s secondary is very opportunistic, but they have a tendency to get barbecued down the field. My gut says that it will be the South Carolina product that gets them this week.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $9,500

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 21: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams runs for a first down before he is stopped by Sidney Jones #23 of the Seattle Seahawks in the second quarter of the game at SoFi Stadium on December 21, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

Some of my builds this week have both Kupp and JT. Like a cat toying with its prey before the kill, I’ll just ride with Kupp this week and spare Scott the embarrassment. He has JT going, which is oozing with desperation. I don’t need to worry about Kupp’s production against a decimated Ravens defense.

WR – Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins – $6,700

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 27: Jaylen Waddle #17 of the Miami Dolphins reacts after catching a pass during the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome on December 27, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

The electric rookie from Alabama is as advertised. The rekindled connection between him and Tua Tagovailoa has been every bit as spectacular as the one in Cincinnati between Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. We haven’t even seen the full scope of Waddle’s downfield capabilities. Wouldn’t it be sweet if we caught a glimpse this Sunday?

TE – George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers – $7,100

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – DECEMBER 23: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers in action in the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on December 23, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

This is a big boi skinny stack. Kittle is a fade when the opposing defense has a good front seven. Houston is not one of those teams. I fully expect a gigantic target volume for Kittle from the gifted rookie, Lance. On top of that, Kittle’s reputation as a YAC monster is sure to re-emerge against one of the worst tackling defenses in the NFL.

FLEX – Michael Gallup – Dallas Cowboys – $4,800

Personally, I cannot wait for this game to kick off. It will be a measuring stick game between the Cowboys and Cardinals in the NFC playoff hunt. It will also be interesting to see if Gallup ends up as the best points-per-dollar receiver on this board. Arizona has very poor personnel on the corners, which until recently was buttressed by their pass rush.

DST – Miami Dolphins – $2,800

Next to the Chiefs, the league’s hottest defensive unit has to be Brian Flores’ Miami Dolphins. I haven’t been too enamored by the Titans on offense either. Without the benefit of Derrick Henry or a healthy Taylor Lewan, Tennessee is grinding out games with great coaching. That won’t be enough to light up the scoreboard against a Miami squad firing on all cylinders.

Football is a Game of Inches

I barely scraped out a victory last week against Bo, just by the skin of my late swap teeth. Josh Palmer was the difference. I cannot celebrate too much because I am still down 7 – 9 and in desperate need of a victory. If I have any hope of pulling off a miraculous comeback in our DraftKings season-long H2H Championship, I have to win this week. A $100 bottle of Whisky/Bourbon goes to the winner and offseason bragging rights. I’m rolling with proven performers like Jonathan Taylor and Sony Michel and volatile upside plays like Tyreek Hill and Trey Lance. Bo and I only share one common player (Trey Lance) which means we are in for a hell of a game!!

Happy New Year!! Hopeful 2022 will be better than 2021.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Trey Lance – San Francisco 49ers – $4,800

Trey Lance is a Week 17 wild card that I want to be injected into my veins. Football is truly a gamble every week, and who doesn’t want in on the biggest gamble this week? Thankfully Bo is of the same gunslinger mindset and chambered him in his H2H clip this week. Smart. You don’t need me to sell you on Lance, his rushing upside combined with receiving weapons like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle speak for themselves. Happy hunting this weekend everyone.

RB – Sony Michel – LA Rams – $5,800

INGLEWOOD, CA – DECEMBER 21: Sony Michel #25 of the Los Angeles Rams avoids a tackle by Ryan Neal #26 of the Seattle Seahawks as he runs for a first down in the game at SoFi Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

Sony Michel is in the Todd Gurley role, just like we all predicted. Don’t fight it. Just accept it. Sony Michel >>>>>> Todd Gurley. The sooner you can accept it, the sooner you can capitalize on it and start making up for lost money. In his last four games, he’s touched the ball 28, 21, 20, and 31 times. Sony is the goal line back. Sony is the PPR back. Sony is the back. Sony is back. More like, Sony is here. I for one am here for it. This week he has 20 point potential against the Baltimore Ravens.

RB – Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts – $9,000

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 25: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs with the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at State Farm Stadium on December 25, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

I was shocked that one Mr. Bo McBrayer, aka @Bo_McBigTime on Twitter, did not roster Jonathan Taylor this week. I am going to tell Jon Helmkamp on you, Bo. It was your fatal mistake this week. That’s all I need to say. Don’t overthink JT. He’s the best running back on the slate and will deliver today.

WR – Braxton Berrios – New York Jets – $3,700

Do you pour your Braxton Berrios before or after the milk? For me, it’s always before, and with ice. This week dig into your Berrios with a soup spoon (is there any other way to do it?) because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be stomping the New York Jets all day long. Zach Wilson will throw the ball 50 times this week. Berrios should see double-digit targets if Jamison Crowder and Elijah Moore are both OUT again this week. There’s milk dripping from your, never mind.

WR –  Antonio Brown – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,100

PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 14: Antonio Brown #81 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates with Ronald Jones II #27 after scoring a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 14, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Antonio Brown was a SMASH play last week, scoring 23.1 DraftKings points in a tough matchup with the Carolina Panthers secondary. This week Brown has a much easier matchup on paper with the New York Jets secondary. According to PFF, Brown has their second-best wide receiver grade for Week 17. Last week his 15 targets were second to only A.J. Brown’s 16. This week Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both OUT, meaning that it will once again be the Tom and Antonio Show. I’m playing him in 69% of my lineups.

WR – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $8,300

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 13: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after his third-quarter touchdown reception against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on October 13, 2019, in Kansas City, Missouri. Hill had two touchdown receptions in the game. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

The Kansas City Chiefs are five-point road favorites this week as they roll into Cincinnatti to face Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Vegas opened the betting at 49.5 and the public quickly bet it up to 51 points. This game has all the trappings of an offensive explosion waiting to happen. Tyreek Hill is often times the accelerant that facilitates said explosive games. Travis Kelce’s return should open up the field for Hill to wreak havoc in the Bengals’ secondary. At $8,300, I feel like it’s a no-brainer in Cash games.

TE – C.J. Uzomah – Cincinnati Bengals – $3,300

C.J. Uzomah has been boom or bust this year and in this matchup against the Chiefs, I am banking on a shootout to aid in his boom. The Chiefs have been pretty stout against wide receivers, but have been venerable to tight ends, giving up 849 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Uzomah has 23 targets in the last 4 games, meaning that the volume is there for a big payoff if he scores this week.

Flex – Tyler Lockett – Seattle Seahawks – $6,400

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – DECEMBER 26: DK Metcalf #14 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates his touchdown catch with Tyler Lockett #16 and Russell Wilson #3 during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Lumen Field on December 26, 2021 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

Tyler Lockett is one of the best football players in the NFL. The Detroit Lions’ secondary is the exact opposite. The average PFF grade for the top three starting cornerbacks is 49.1, with Will Harris (44.1) set to lineup across from Lockett. Lockett is more of a GPP play than Cash game, but I need upside against Bo. Lockett delivered for me in Week 14, scoring 30 points and burying Bo in the process. It’s Lockett week ladies and gentlemen and Bo.

DST – Denver Broncos – $2,600

The Denver Broncos DST is the cheapest punt defense I feel comfortable playing this week. It’s that simple.

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Hot Cash From the King of Spice

The Hogmanay Plunge

There isn’t one nice word that rushes to the forefront to describe the year of our Lord, 2021. I’m fairly certain it would take some concerted effort to derive positivity from the most recent 365 and one quarter-day ellipse around our yellow dwarf star. It is assured that some of the most annoying New Year traditions will grace the television airwaves, coupled with icons of today’s pop culture (whom I struggle to recognize) sipping Dom Perignon from a private booth above the cesspool known as Times Square.

New Year’s Eve is decidedly a day of reflection, resolution, and any other re-(insert word) you can scrape from the dictionary. Since I, along with most others, haven’t stuck with a New Year resolution for more than a couple hours in the last decade, I went searching for a new tradition. I discovered some intriguing options.

In the Sacred Ground (say it in the thickest brogue possible) of Scotland, from where my ancestors hailed, folks spend the last two days of the Roman year celebrating Hogmanay. Hogmanay’s most popular tradition is the “first footing,” where one is encouraged to be the first to pay a visit to friends and neighbors, often accompanied by a symbolic gift of some type. On New Year’s Day, the locals culminate the celebration with a harrowing dip in the frigid Firth of Forth. This tradition is also emulated here in the US, sometimes called the Polar Plunge.

I take the plunge into my pool every January 1st, after I light a fire nearby and have warm towels pulled from the dryer. It’s quite the rush and feels amazing, but I can’t help but go full George Costanza, “I WAS IN THE POOL!” It also seems to be the only way I’ll ever hit the Olivia Newton-John notes from the Grease soundtrack.

In Italy and Spain, some wear new, red underwear (if it isn’t new, it isn’t lucky) and throw old things out the window. In Switzerland, they plop a dollup of cream on the floor for good fortune (and a sour smell that lingers into February). In Greece, they hang pomegranates from doorways, only to promptly smash them into the door for (you guessed it) good fortune in the coming year. The juicier the smash, the better the year upcoming. In Germany, the people melt lead and cast it into water to make shapes that help them see the future (ironic that lead poisoning causes blindness). My new favorite is the Catalonian tradition, where the children are tasked with finding L’home dels nassos, or the man with many noses. Apparently, he has as many noses as days are left in the year. The stupid kids don’t realize that on New Year’s Eve, he has but one nose and could be anyone. What a ruse!

The New Year is an opportunity, much like one on any other day. Time is a construct, but humanity is a species with cyclical idiosyncrasies. “New year, new me” is a genius way to sell cars and gym memberships. The new year rekindles our strongest feelings of body dysmorphia and other forms of psychological warfare. Some folks peel the shrink wrap off their Sexy Firemen of the Midwest calendar and strive to earn more money in the new year than in the last. I could always be richer and skinnier, but my new year begins the day after the Super Bowl.

Of course, we could all use an extra jingle in our pockets in 2022. What better way than to take a polar plunge into the DraftKings coffers with another profitable NFL DFS main slate? We have now stacked two wildly successful weeks together and are hitting a stride as elegant as AJ Brown’s to wrap up the 2021 regular season. Our value section, “Under the Table” was insanely profitable in Week 16, featuring Joe Burrow, Justin Jackson, Byron Pringle, and Isaiah McKenzie. Save some ball-drop bubbly for Sunday afternoon when we do it again!

Week 17 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

Gold Plated

JOSH ALLEN: VS ATLANTA ($8,000)

Josh Allen is a freaking stud. He does it all for the Bills, who looked like a championship contender again last week in Foxborough. The Falcons are jockeying for a higher draft pick at this point, while Buffalo is fighting for that top seed again. I expect an easy 25-30 points from Allen this week.

MATTHEW STAFFORD: @ BALTIMORE ($7,100)

The hits keep coming for this decimated Ravens’ secondary. They were utterly embarrassed by their hated division rivals last week, relinquishing over 500 passing yards to Joe Burrow & Co. This week, they get the most productive wide receiver in the game today and his gunslinger quarterback. Stafford tends to do well when his receivers are running wide open all game.

Rocking the Suburbs

JOE BURROW: VS KANSAS CITY ($6,900)

Whew! I was one of the few who predicted Joe Burrow to be the best quarterback play on the board last week. The Chiefs have completely flipped the early season script, going from one of the worst defenses to one that is formidable and fearsome. I still love the matchup advantages for the Bengals here, especially through the air. Burrow and his trio of gifted wideouts will still rack up the passing production and return value, even at a cool G more expensive than last Sunday.

JALEN HURTS: @ WASHINGTON ($6,600)

Hurts usually is a slow starter to games, but has the sixth-highest FPPG on DraftKings among quarterbacks. He is priced as the tenth-highest salary this week against a defense that was literally fighting each other on the sidelines in Dallas last week. The Birds might not have the firepower to hang a 50-burger on the no-namers, but Hurts will be a perpetual value on DK, with upside to spare.

Under the Table

TREY LANCE: VS HOUSTON ($4,800)***

After another string of lies spewed from Kyle Shanahan’s lips, we should have already known that Jimmy Garoppolo wasn’t suiting up with the ligament in his throwing thumb completely torn from the bone. I, along with the Texans, have been preparing for Lance to get the start this week at a scintillating price. It will be incredibly chalky to roll the rookie out in GPP contests, but for cash games he provides a points-per-dollar value that helps immensely with filling out a surefire winner.

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 25: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs with the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at State Farm Stadium on December 25, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

Running Backs

Gold Plated

JONATHAN TAYLOR: VS LAS VEGAS ($9,000)***

JT is a generational running back who is matchup proof and gets the volume he deserves every week. He is facing a Raiders defense that is 30th versus opposing running backs. Jonathan Taylor is only $9k this week. Roster Jonathan Taylor and build from there.

Rocking the Suburbs

DAVID MONTGOMERY: VS NY GIANTS ($6,500)

Monty was one of my core plays last week, with resounding success. His volume is the main attraction for cash games, which overcomes any lack of efficiency in an offense run by the inept and moronic Matt Nagy. Even at $800 more than last week, I don’t see any reason to fade Monty against the most pathetic excuse for a franchise in the NFL.

DEANDRE SWIFT: @ SEATTLE ($6,000)

He’s baaaaack! Where I never believe Shanny, I really trust Dan Campbell. He says Swift looks incredible and is operating at full strength. We just saw what a heavy running game can do to the reeling Seahawks. The Georgia Bulldog will smash on Sunday, hopefully without much chalk in GPP because of the uncertainty around his workload.

Under the Table

KE’SHAWN VAUGHN*: @ NY JETS ($5,200)

As much as it pains me to agree with Fantasy Mansion, Matt Kelley, I cannot ignore the writing on the wall that Vaughn has a brighter future in Tampa Bay than Ronald Jones. Either back is fine to roster this week against the god damn Jets, but I’ll err on the blowout and better receiving narrative with the kid from Vandy. I’m not enamored with the price hike on the lower end running backs by DK, but I’ll still get great value with guys who will be on the field and getting high-value touches.

Wide Receivers

Gold Plated

COOPER KUPP: @ BALTIMORE ($9,500)

Kupp is the most productive receiver in the game today and faces one of the weakest coverage units on Sunday. My only concern is that the embarrassment of passing riches for the Rams might not require as much of a concentration of target volume for Kupp, resulting in an albatross of salary weighing down a winning build. I still won’t lose sleep with him in there either.

STEFON DIGGS: VS ATLANTA ($7,900)

One of the best skinny stacks on the board is the tried-and-true Allen to Diggs stack. The Falcons have one good defensive player on their entire team, AJ Terrell. He won’t draw Terrell on every snap, which leaves him running amok most of the game. I believe Diggs will see a ton of target volume in this game and return insane value if he finds the end zone.

Rocking the Suburbs

JAYLEN WADDLE: @ TENNESSEE ($6,700)***

There was a lot of uncertainty around the Bama rookie during draft season. We hadn’t seen him in game action since fracturing his ankle early in the 2020 season. We now know why he was such a heralded prospect. Waddle has taken the league by storm in the second half and now has a date with a Titans secondary that is atrocious. I will be waddling on Sunday because of how overweight I will be on him in my builds.

BRANDIN COOKS: @ SAN FRANCISCO ($6,000)

Beware the COVID weight loss journey, but also heed my advice on this pick. NorCal native (Stockton) Cooks returns to the Bay Area to face a really bad secondary. His target volume from Davis Mills (from Stanford) has been stupendous this season. I think the Texans make this a game against the 49ers, via an explosive passing game from Mills and Cooks.

Under the Table

MICHAEL GALLUP: VS ARIZONA ($4,800)

I was playing Cowboys receiver roulette last Sunday night for the Showdown slate and correctly guessed Amari Cooper and Dalton Schultz. This week, I’m hitching my wagon to the uber-talented Colorado State product, Gallup. He is playing for a big contract and will be barking loudly against the 27th-best defense at defending wide receivers. The salary is downright insulting, which is perfect for cash games.

ZAY JONES*: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($3,900)

The sneakiest target monster in the NFL lately has been Jones, averaging more than seven looks over his last five games. Where Hunter Renfrow has deservedly seen a big salary hike over that time frame, Zay has not. I will slip him into certain cash lineups as a final puzzle piece, and won’t even feel bad about sliding down to Bryan Edwards against an opportunistic-but-burnable Indy secondary.

Tight Ends

Gold Plated

TRAVIS KELCE: @ CINCINNATI ($7,300)

No, I’m not fading Mark Andrews. I just prefer Kelce and Kittle for this particular slate. I fully expect a massive shootout between these two teams, which typically means Kelce and/or Tyreek Hill is melting the nuclear reactors. I believe the Rams will have an answer for Andrews, where the Bengals won’t for Kelce.

GEORGE KITTLE: VS HOUSTON ($7,100)

We found out last week that the way to predict a down week for Kittle was when the 49ers face a formidable front seven, Fake sharp Shanny will keep his prized tight end in to use his magnificent blocking skills and run fewer passing routes. Houston poses no such front, giving me extreme optimism that the rookie quarterback will lean on Kittle all game.

Rocking the Suburbs

ROB GRONKOWSKI: @ NY JETS ($6,200)

Mike Evans is still on the mend from his hamstring injury and Antonio Brown missed Thursday and Friday practice with his ankle flaring up. Gronk could be in line for a nice bump in volume this week in a game that nobody expects to be close. I do know that Brady and Gronk have bullied the Jets for many years and Sunday is primed to be a throwback performance.

ZACH ERTZ: @ DALLAS ($5,200)***

How very rare for a player to face the same team three times in one season. Ertz has owned the Cowboys in his career as an Eagle and scored in each of his games against them this season, including the contest right before his trade to the desert. I hate to say it, but I had Ertz locked into my DFS lineups for both of those games and will do it again on Sunday. Ownage is ownage.

Under the Table

COLE KMET: VS NY GIANTS ($3,400)

It has been a sad week, with the deaths of the beloved John Madden and Betty White. Jimmy Graham(pa) as a red zone vulture is alive and well, keeping the young Kmet’s salary very reasonable for his consistent target volume. This has been remarkable, with the revolving door at quarterback and a buffoon coaching the team. The Giants are terrible at every facet of the game, including covering tight ends as talented as Kmet.

Featured

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

Dobermans and Razor Wire

Before I wax poetic about my return to form last week, I would like to wish the Simpson family a very merry Christmas. A man is only as good as his supporting cast and Rose and the girls tolerate Scott at a dosage level that inferior beings would quickly succumb to. All kidding aside, Scott is a brother to me. The parallels we share from 3,000 miles apart are remarkable. We each have enough empathy for one another to share stories and experiences without judgment.

Scott’s attempt to defeat me for the third-consecutive week was thwarted when Mark Andrews put on a clinic against the Packers. The rest of my Week 15 lineup was shadier than the business practices of a repo car lot. I put together a tougher pack of guard dogs this week. Our respective Cash and GPP articles were near perfect matches this week, so it’s no wonder that there will be only a few swing players in this week’s Clash. I only need a couple more wins to clinch the season series. Scott doesn’t know yet, but the Clash loser buys the winner a nice bottle of whiskey. Cheers to you, brother!

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles– $6,400

PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 19: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) yells to the crowd during the game between the Washington Football Team and the Philadelphia Eagles on December 21, 2021 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

This is the type of offense that Nick Sirianni gets the very most out of his young quarterback. Hurts has been one of the very best fantasy quarterbacks all season, but we benefit from the Tuesday game pricing blind spot this week. The Giants are a pathetic excuse for a franchise and might give up 300 rushing yards to the Birds, with Hurts doing his best Josh Allen impersonation.

RB – Cordarrelle Patterson – Atlanta Falcons – $6,700

Sexy Flexy isn’t picking up a lot of fanfare this week, after putting up a rare dud in Week 15. Patterson is still a cheat code in PPR, picking up an insane amount of high-value touches each game. He also has tremendous touchdown upside with his specialized role in the Arthur Smith offense. Detroit has failed to slow down any type of running back or wide receiver this season. That’s nice, because Cordarrelle is both.

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 19: Cordarrelle Patterson #84 of the Atlanta Falcons runs the ball in the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,900

The only thing missing from JRob’s solid performance last week was the big play. I suspect they will come in bunches this week against the Jets’ historically bad season against running backs. Darrell Bevell believes in giving Robinson a full workload, early and often. I believe he could go for 30-plus points this week.

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 19: James Robinson #25 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs the ball as Garret Wallow #32 of the Houston Texans falls while looking to make a tackle during the third quarter at TIAA Bank Field on December 19, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)

WR – Odell Beckham Jr. – LA Rams – $5,300

Cooper Kupp is obviously the alpha dog of this receiving corps, but don’t sleep on OBJ’s ever-increasing role. The Vikings’ secondary is putrid enough to feel very confident in Beckham’s potential at nearly a $4k discount off Kupp. From what we’ve already seen from OBJ in LA, it’s safe to say that the Browns be the Browns.

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 13: Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Los Angeles Rams stands on the sidelines during the third quarter of the NFL game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on December 13, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Rams defeated the Cardinals 30-23. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $9,100

I know I just talked about leveraging Kupp with Beckham, but there is absolutely zero chance I’m forgoing the league’s most productive receiver against the worst coverage unit in football. Regardless of his cap hit on DK, the 20-point floor is ultra-coveted in cash games like this.

INGLEWOOD, CA – DECEMBER 21: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams pushes off Sidney Jones #23 of the Seattle Seahawks after a complete pass during the game at SoFi Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

WR – Byron Pringle – Kansas City Chiefs – $3,300

Even with Tyreek Hill getting the green light to come off the COVID list, I’m all about Pringle’s big-play ability against a vulnerable Pittsburgh back end. Mahomes has shown more trust in Pringle than with Hardman or Robinson. Needing only double digits to 3-max value on a player with this much potential is exactly what I’m looking for to put the cherry on top of a DFS build.

TE – Dallas Goedert – Philadelphia Eagles – $5,100

Mark Andrews and Goedert were each smashing successes in Week 15. The former helped me hit one of my best scores of the season and the latter padding my wallet on the Tuesday slate. Goedert, like Jalen Hurts, was priced for Week 16 before his massive Week 15 game on Tuesday. This kind of edge is very helpful in cash games to fortify lineup builds with the most potential value. Plus, the Giants really suck.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 21: Dallas Goedert #88 of the Philadelphia Eagles warms up prior to the game against the Washington Football Team at Lincoln Financial Field on December 21, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

FLEX – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $5,700

It is Monty season, you guys just might not be aware at this point. He touched the ball 23 times last week against Minnesota, which included five receptions. The Vikings are much tougher on running backs than the Seahawks, who allow the second-most points to opposing running backs in the NFL (only the Jets are worse). A sub-$6k Monty in this situation feels like Santa left it under the tree.

DST – Chicago Bears – $2,500

It is a calculated risk to use a struggling defense, but stacking the Bears with Monty gives a nice correlation to my build. I also don’t fear the Seahawks’ offense one bit. Russell Wilson has been horrible since returning from the dreadful mallet finger injury. He is in typical late-season Mr. Ultra-Limited form and I expect the Bears to get after him.

Down, But Not Out

Last week my comeback was cut short when Dak Prescott shit the bed and Pat Freiermuth was knocked out of the game with an injury. Bo ended my short-lived 2-game winning streak before it ever got going. This week I am down, but not out. I’ve assembled a Week 16 team that I am confident will be able to take Bo down. Our lineups are eerily similar, both rostering Jalen Hurts, David Montgomery, James Robinson, Cooper Kupp, and Byron Pringle. It will come down to matchups like OBJ vs. Keenan Allen and Mark Andrews vs. Dallas Goedert to settle it. I’m confident my team will bring me one step closer to my ultimate goal of winning the 2021 Clash of The Beard and Bellies Championship!

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles – $6,500

Death, Taxes, and Jalen Hurts in Cash. Hurts has been consistent all season long, scoring 19 or more DraftKings points in 10 of 13 games. RunTheSims.com has Hurts as the top point per dollar play this week for quarterbacks. The Giants are a shell of themselves and Hurts should be able to move the ball downfield all game long. I just love that Bo is playing him as well.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $5,700

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is dm.jpeg
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – DECEMBER 20: David Montgomery #32 of the Chicago Bears carries the ball during the first quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field on December 20, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

David Montgomery rolls into Week 16 averaging 16.2 DraftKings points per game over his last four games. This week Montgomery faces a Seattle Seahawks rush defense that ranks 31st in the NFL, giving up 29.4 points per game. Expect Matt Nagy to feed Montgomery all game long. A potential negative games script could also mean more targets as the Bears play catchup. I’m not shocked at all that Montgomery found his way into Bo’s lineup this week as well.

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,900

James Robinson is back!! Last week he saw 24 opportunities, rushing for 75 yards and a score, picking up 17.8 DraftKings points along the way. This week Robinson faces the New York Jets defense that ranks 32nd to running backs this season. Their futility is remarkable. They have surrendered over 2,500 rushing and passing yards combined and 25 total touchdowns. Robinson is currently projected around 10% rostership, making him a great play in all GPP formats this week.

WR – Keenan Allen – LA Chargers – $7,700

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 16: Keenan Allen #13 of the Los Angeles Chargers celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at SoFi Stadium on December 16, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Keenan Allen is a sixth amongst NFL wide receivers with 134 targets this season. Allen has a 27% target share and over his last seven games, Allen is averaging 10.9 targets per game. That’s translated into 20.5 DraftKings points per game. With Austin Ekeler OUT this week on the NFL’s COVID-19 list, the offense should be on Herbert’s shoulders, making Allen a top play this week. Bo is going to be kicking himself for not rostering him.

WR –  Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $9,100

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 21: Ugo Amadi #28 of the Seattle Seahawks tackles Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams on a pass play during the second quarter of a game at SoFi Stadium on December 21, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Cooper Kupp leads all NFL wide receivers in targets (164), receptions (122), receiving yards (1,625), and touchdowns (14). Kupp has scored over 30 DraftKings points in six games this year. He’s the best wide receiver play each and every week. Don’t overthink this one. Kupp is a Gronk smash into your lineup this week.

WR – Byron Pringle – Kansas City Chiefs – $3,300

The Byron Pringle play has lost s bit of its bloom given that both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are not expected to be cleared to play on Sunday. This will ultimately limit Pringle’s upside. Thankfully Bo took the bait on Pringle as well so I won’t be wallowing alone.

TE – Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – $7,000

BALTIMORE, MD – DECEMBER 19: Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) makes a leaping one-handed catch over the middle but can bring it down for a catch during the Green Bay Packers versus Baltimore Ravens NFL game at M&T Bank Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Mark Andrews is the TE1 this year in DraftKings scoring, averaging 18.2 points per game. Andrews leads all NFL tight ends with 122 targets, 85 receptions, and eight touchdowns. He’s averaging 10.6 targets per game over his last five games and is the Ravens’ number one receiving threat whether Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley is under center. His 11% rostership is reasonable given his 30 plus point upside this week. Andrews is worth running out naked or pairing with Huntley if he gets the start in place of Lamar.

Flex – Cameron Brate – Tampa Bay Buccaneers– $2,500

It’s no secret that Tom Brady will be down both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans this week against the Carolina Panthers. I’m not expecting too much from Cameron Brate this week, all I need is 8 points. If he scores a touchdown, it’s icing on the cake.

DST – Minnesota Vikings – $2,400

The Minnesota Vikings are the best punt defense that I can afford with my remaining $2,400. I’m not thrilled about it, but there’s nothing I can do about it if I want to play studs like Keenan Allen and Mark Andrews in my lineup. It’s a deal with the devil for sure.

Featured

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 16! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Justin Herbert, LA Chargers – $7,200

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 16: Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers passes the ball under pressure from Tershawn Wharton #98 of the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half of a game at SoFi Stadium on December 16, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

According to RunTheSims.com, Justin Herbert has one of the highest ceilings of all the Week 16 quarterbacks. Over his last four weeks, Herbert is averaging over 28 points per game. This week he faces a Texans defense that down a significant number of defensive starters due to a COVID-19 outbreak. I love pairing Herbery up with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in this matchup. Stacking both players allows you to leverage the field a bit. If you are looking to differentiate, currently Josh Palmer is only projected for 1% rostership, making him the best leverage play in this game given Jalen Guyton’s absence due to being placed on the NFL’s COVID-19 list. The Chargers and Herbert should have no problem finding the end-zone this week against the hapless Texans.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals – $5,900

DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 19: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals warms-up before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on December 19, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

The last time Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals played the Ravens, Burrow passed for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. Rookie sensation, Ja’Marr Chase, turned 10 targets into eight receptions for 201 yards and a score. Tee Higgins saw 15 targets that game, as Burrow exploited a weak Ravens’ secondary all day long. Fast forward to Week 16 and not much has changed for the Ravens. They just got torched by Aaron Rodgers for 268 yards passing and three scores. I love Burrow’s $5,900 price tag in this matchup. Apparently, I am the only one, because Burrow is currently only projected for a 3% rostership this week. I will be stacking Burrow with both of his top wide receivers, C.J. Uzomah is also in play after exploding for 91 yards and two scores in Week 8.

Value – Quarterback

Tim Boyle, Detroit Lions – $4,000

I personally wasn’t aware that quarterbacks could be priced as low as $4,000. You learn something new every day. One thing that I learned a while back is that the Atlanta Falcons are not good at defense. Particularly speaking, the Falcons rank 31st against quarterbacks, giving up 20 points per game to single callers. Boyle isn’t going to score 30 points, but he could score 20 and at only 4K, he’s worth a roll of the dice. The salary relief should open up your build and enable you to surround Boyle with higher-priced studs. Don’t be afraid to play Boyle in larger GPP contests.

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High Priced – Running Back

Cordarrelle Patteron, Atlanta Falcons – $6,700

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 19: Cordarrelle Patterson #84 of the Atlanta Falcons runs the ball in the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

Cordarrelle Patterson is the man. This season he has been the Atlanta Falcons offense, averaging over 17 DraftKings points per game. He’s scored double-digit points in 10 of 13 appearances. This week Patterson faces a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 29th against running backs, having given up over 2,00 total yards and 22 touchdowns. Patterson should be unleashed in this matchup, free to score willy nilly all over the Lions. He’s one of my favorite running back plays in high-stakes GPP contests.

Mid-Range – Running Back

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,900

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 19: James Robinson #25 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs the ball as Garret Wallow #32 of the Houston Texans falls while looking to make a tackle during the third quarter at TIAA Bank Field on December 19, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)

James Robinson is back!! Last week he saw 24 opportunities, rushing for 75 yards and a score, picking up 17.8 DraftKings points along the way. This week Robinson faces the New York Jets defense that ranks 32nd to running backs this season. Their futility is remarkable. They have surrendered over 2,500 rushing and passing yards combined and 25 total touchdowns. Robinson is currently projected around 10% rostership, making him a great play in all GPP formats this week.

Value – Running Back

Justin Jackson, LA Chargers – $4,200

Austin Ekeler is currently on the NFL COVID-19 list, and it looks like he will ultimately miss Week 16 as a result. Last week, Justin Jackson carried the ball 13 times for 86 yards, which averaged out to 6.6 yards per carry. Jackson is expected to see the majority of touches in the Chargers backfield. It’s anyone’s guess how goal-line work will be split, but Jackson should be in the mix. Jackson’s role is less defined makes him a value upside-side play at only $4,200. His 11% projected rostership is a bit high, so make sure that the rest of your lineup isn’t too chalky.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Cooper Kupp, LA Rams – $9,100

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 21: Ugo Amadi #28 of the Seattle Seahawks tackles Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams on a pass play during the second quarter of a game at SoFi Stadium on December 21, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Cooper Kupp leads all NFL wide receivers in targets (164), receptions (122), receiving yards (1,625), and touchdowns (14). Kupp has scored over 30 DraftKings points in six games this year. He’s the best wide receiver play each and every week. Don’t overthink this one. Kupp is a Gronk smash into your lineup this week.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders – $6,800

“Third and Renfrow” might be the best wide receiver nickname in the NFL. Hunter Renfrow has lived up to the billing, turning his 38 targets over the last four weeks into 21.4 DraftKings points per game. Renfrow has over 100 yards receiving and at least nine targets in three of the last four weeks. Darren Waller is expected to miss Week 16, paving the way for Renfrow to see double-digit targets in a home underdog role against the Denver Broncos. Renfrow is live in mid-sized single-entry GPP tournaments.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $4,900

PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 14: Antonio Brown #81 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates with Ronald Jones II #27 after scoring a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 14, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

I’m shocked that Antonio Brown is currently only projected for 15% DraftKings rostership for Week 16. With Chris Godwin shelved and Mike Evans looking like he will miss the matchup with the Carolina Panthers, Antonio “Fake COVID-19 Card” Brown looks to be the beneficiary. According to all practice reports, Brown has looked great this week after returning from an ankle injury. I’m expecting Brown to see 8-10 targets this week and serve as Tom Brady’s security blanket. I’m comfortable rolling Brown out in all contest formats. His $4,900 price tag makes him one of the most versatile plays on the Week 16 slate.

High Priced – Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $7,000

BALTIMORE, MD – DECEMBER 19: Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) makes a leaping one-handed catch over the middle but can bring it down for a catch during the Green Bay Packers versus Baltimore Ravens NFL game at M&T Bank Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Mark Andrews is the TE1 this year in DraftKings scoring, averaging 18.2 points per game. Andrews leads all NFL tight ends with 122 targets, 85 receptions, and eight touchdowns. He’s averaging 10.6 targets per game over his last five games and is the Ravens’ number one receiving threat whether Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley is under center. His 11% rostership is reasonable given his 30 plus point upside this week. Andrews is worth running out naked or pairing with Huntley if he gets the start in place of Lamar.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,200

TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 12: Rob Gronkowski #87 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers attempts to catch a ball thrown by Tom Brady #12 during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Raymond James Stadium on December 12, 2021, in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady have combined for 90 passing touchdowns in their careers. Brady is without Chris Godwin and will most likely be without Mike Evan as well. This week Gronk is priced up $200, despite only scoring 4.9 points last week. Currently, he’s the highest rostered tight end on the DraftKings main slate, picking up 14% projected rostership. It makes sense given the Buccaneers’ wide receiver injuries. I am not really worried about the chalk on Gronk, he’s the best tight end option that isn’t named Mark Andrews.

Value – Tight End

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears– $3,300

Cole Kmet has 32 targets, 20 receptions, and close to 200 yards receiving in his last four games. Eight targets for $3,300 is practically stealing. The Seattle Seahawks rank 27th against the tight end, having given up 801 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. Kmet hasn’t found the end-zone yet this year, but I’m banking on him to slump bust it big and score over 14 DraftKings points.

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Featured

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Deck the Halls With Bows and Folly

It’s Christmas Eve. A palpable chill lingers in the wintry air, but there is smoke emanating from my debit card. When I was a kid, my mom would pull out all the stops to ensure that my sister and I would have cherished memories. Ever the festive one, Ma would allow us to open one gift on Christmas Eve. She would let us pick whichever one we wanted, even though she didn’t set out the non-pajama gifts until after we had crashed from our sugar cookie and cocoa high.

I married into a family that has its own traditions. My mother-in-law has been compiling gifts since December 26th last year. My wife and daughter didn’t fall far from that pre-lit tree, each barely able to contain their excitement and anticipation until all gifts are opened tonight on Christmas Eve. My wife and I didn’t splurge on gifts this year, instead opting for ones that we could share and remember. Our little girl will be nine years old next week and is showing an interest in singing. We got her a year of professional vocal lessons. My mom got her a record player with a couple vinyl records that she could put on the desk in her bedroom and belt out the same Imagine Dragons song on loop. I’m not one to get too fired up about much more than the food on Christmas, but I cannot wait to see her reaction.

Christmas Eve is such a special day that it also means that we spend Christmas Day in a vegetative state. We turn off our phones, play The Christmas Story on TV, and nap in between putting batteries in new toys and trying to figure out how to switch our gas fireplace back on. This year we have NFL football to watch on Christmas Day, which means I technically have some work to do on the holiday. Don’t worry, I won’t toil too much over picking apart the action. I’ll want to save my energy for Sunday.

If you played along last week, you would have had James Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Deebo Samuel, and Mark Freaking Andrews in your cash lineups. We were on cloud nine when many others were blubbering about the Cry-mageddon 2.0 that was Week 15. DFS is the answer to the season-long issue of last minute inactives from injuries or COVID protocol. Winning at DFS can make up for a truly dreadful redraft or dynasty season with swirling uncertainty and horrific timing to stars missing games.

Week 16 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

Gold-Plated

JUSTIN HERBERT: @ HOUSTON ($7,200)

The second-year pro out of Oregon is still firmly in my MVP conversation. The Chargers need to take care of business to stay in the running for the AFC West division title and the trappings that come with home field advantage and potential first round bye. It’s unlikely that Austin Ekeler will be activated off the COVID list for this one, giving Herbert a green light to air it out against one of the league’s worst defenses.

Rocking the Suburbs

MATTHEW STAFFORD: @ MINNESOTA ($6,700)

I would call the Vikings a pass funnel, but they’re not good at stopping the run either. Minnesota has nobody with a prayer of covering the likes of Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee. How will they do with those guys and also the league’s most productive receiver this season, Cooper Kupp? They won’t do well. Stafford will easily crack 300 passing yards, hopefully with a handful of touchdowns in tandem.

JALEN HURTS: VS NY GIANTS ($6,400)***

I’ll give credit to Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen. They have put Hurts in a great position to maximize his unique set of skills. We saw that on full display against Washington last week. The Eagles have become a lethal running team. They have another tantalizing matchup this week against the abominable Giants. Am I the only one who sees a lot of Josh Allen in Jalen Hurts? This is an amazing value for an elite fantasy player.

Under the Table

JOE BURROW: VS BALTIMORE ($5,900)

I’m not going dumpster diving this week at quarterback. I just found out that my only value player, Justin Fields, is getting benched for Nick Foles this week (thanks, Matt Nagy). The Ravens tattered secondary had no solution for the Bengals earlier in the season. Baltimore is a true pass funnel defense, so I’ll be playing a lot of Burrow & Co this week in all formats.

Running Backs

Gold-Plated

ALEXANDER MATTISON: VS LA RAMS ($6,800)

The way to beat the Rams is by bludgeoning them with the run game. With Dalvin Cook on the shelf yet again, Mattison has risen from the bench to inherit a huge workload. I’d play more of him if I thought his ceiling wasn’t somewhat capped by potential game script.

CORDARRELLE PATTERSON: VS DETROIT ($6,700)***

It finally happened. Sexy Flexy finally turned back into a pumpkin last week, thanks to absurd usage by idiot savant, Arthur Smith. The Falcons’ fake sharp of a coach has already put an airtight lid on the most exciting receiving prospect of the 21st century. I pray he doesn’t do the same to 2021’s fantasy darling, Patterson against the putrid Lions’ defense. I’ll be playing him everywhere, pacing nervously and chugging boozy eggnog.

Rocking the Suburbs

JAMES ROBINSON: @NY JETS ($5,900)

Robinson was good last week, not great. He really only lacked the one big play that vaults him from solid to slate breaker. I think he has a great chance to bust a few big’uns against the god damn Jets this Sunday. We at least have the assurance that Darrell Bevell enjoys feeding his best player, unlike that buffoon that used to pretend to coach the Jags.

DAVID MONTGOMERY*: @ SEATTLE ($5,700)

The Nick Foles news has sent the DFS community into a tizzy. The projected roster percentage attached to Monty is already tumbling. I will be getting even heavier on him and gingerbread cookies. The volume will be immense and the Seahawks are horrible at defending running backs.

Under the Table

JUSTIN JACKSON: @ HOUSTON ($4,200)

Austin Ekeler said it himself yesterday: pick up Justin Jackson because he still doesn’t feel well and will likely remain on the COVID list Sunday. Jackson is having the healthiest season of his career, which isn’t saying much. He is still very talented and leaps and bounds better than Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree. If I’m down here, this is the only running back I remotely trust.

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 28: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams avoids a tackle by Henry Black #41 of the Green Bay Packers during the second halfat Lambeau Field on November 28, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Wide Receivers

Gold-Plated

COOPER KUPP: @ MINNESOTA ($9,100)***

Everyone now knows that Kupp is on pace to break Megatron’s single season receiving yards record, albeit in one more game. The pride of Yakima is also within reach of Michael Thomas’ record for receptions in a season. Cooper Kupp is also facing the absolute worst pass coverage unit in the NFL this week. For cash games, eat the chalk with a grin.

KEENAN ALLEN: @ HOUSTON ($7,700)

The player with the most to gain from the absence of Austin Ekeler will be Allen. Ekeler is the Chargers’ catalyst in the short passing game. I foresee Allen getting peppered with short area targets from the slot in this game. This will add up the PPR points in bunches and easily return value in cash games.

Rocking the Suburbs

HUNTER RENFROW: VS DENVER ($6,800)

Much like with Patterson, Renfrow was a letdown for the first time in recent memory. He was on such a torrid pace, but now we will see who is loyal to him as a target-hogging PPR machine. Assuming he won’t be as popular this week, I’ll have Third & Renfrow sprinkled across my builds in all formats.

ANTONIO BROWN: @ CAROLINA ($4,900)

Is he bat shit crazy? Yes. Did he mislead his team and the NFL with a fake vaccination card? Yes. Does he enjoy paying his personal chef? No. Is he recovering from a bad ankle injury? Yes. Is he appropriately priced on DraftKings? No! We have to be mindful of the chalk here, but the Bucs are without Godwin and Evans against Carolina, leaving AB as the top option for Tom Brady in Week 16.

Under the Table

BYRON PRINGLE: VS PITTSBURGH ($3,300)

I will still be all over this matchup, even if Hill and Kelce are activated on Sunday. Pringle has been the more reliable of the “WR3 Carousel” in KC, over Hardman and Robinson. The Steelers’ secondary is getting barbecued down the field this season. Pringle is showing up as one of the best overall values on this entire slate.

ISAIAH MCKENZIE: @ NEW ENGLAND ($3,000)

My 2020 Week 17 darling, McKenzie is back on the radar this week. Cole Beasley and Gabe Davis are both unvaccinated and tested positive for COVID this week. McKenzie is a dynamic playmaker in the same ilk as Rondale Moore. I would be very disappointed if I didn’t mention McKenzie this week, before he puts up solid numbers against the extremely overrated Patriots defense.

Dec 9, 2019; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (88) makes a first down reception past New York Giants free safety Antoine Bethea (41) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Tight Ends

Gold-Plated

MARK ANDREWS: @ CINCINNATI ($7,000)

Mark Freaking Andrews has been a stud this year. Whether from Lamar Jackson or former Utah Ute, Tyler Huntley, Andrews is the most reliable receiver on the team. He makes a great runback in GPPs off the Bengals stack I’ll be deploying. In cash games, you might be hard-pressed to spend up to get him. You still won’t regret it.

ROB GRONKOWSKI: @ CAROLINA ($6,200)

The whole world is looking to Antonio Brown to be the benefactor in the Bucs’ passing attack, but they might be erroneously sleeping on the greatest tight end of all time. We shall see. I like Gronk as a safe play with tons of touchdown upside, now that Mike Evans has been ruled out.

Rocking the Suburbs

DAWSON KNOX: @ NEW ENGLAND ($5,300)

Knox hasn’t really excited me in DFS too often this season, but this week is different. I brazenly predicted a 35-17 score for this game in the Bills favor, so without Beasley and Davis, Josh Allen will need to count on someone besides Stefon Diggs to expose the fraudulent Patriots on Sunday. Knox is perfectly priced for his floor, with plenty of room to smash if he finds the end zone.

DALLAS GOEDERT: VS NY GIANTS ($5,100)***

I highly doubt there will be a more coveted DFS tight end on the slate than Goedert. He got the Tuesday night blind spot price here and also faces my favorite punchline team, the Giants on Sunday. Hurts will continue to feed the South Dakota State Jackrabbit plenty of healthy target volume. Goedert is my preferred tight end to play in cash games this week.

Under the Table

COLE KMET: @ SEATTLE ($3,300)

Seattle is on the verge of imploding as a franchise, which is eerily similar to Chicago’s plight under incumbent moron, Matt Nagy. Nagy announced earlier today that Nick Foles will start at quarterback on Sunday, puzzling everyone in the NFL community. Foles hasn’t targeted an outside receiver since ‘Nam, so I’ll take a stab at the talented young tight end to get a bunch of garbage, low aDOT dump-offs. In GPP, I’ll predict chaos and roster the corpse of Jimmy Graham in a few spots.

Featured

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

Abominable Snowman

What a terrible performance! Except for Alvin Kamara and Joshua Palmer, I saw six snowflakes on my side of the board. That is by far the most I’ve ever had in a head to head clash with Scott. I literally gift wrapped his second-consecutive win last week, so now I don’t need to get him anything for Christmas. He can build all the fires with composite logs from Costco that he wants, the flames will be back in my column for Week 15.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Davis Mills – Houston Texans – $5,400

The rookie out of Stanford has played better in three of his NFL games than he ever did in the Pac-12. Last week, Mills passed for over 300 yards and put up his third 20-point performance of the fantasy season. He gets the lowly Jags this week, who took the most vile dump in the history of dumps (and Florida). I like Mills to air it out and get me some serious points-per-dollar.

RB – Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins – $5,600

You guessed it! It’s an odd-numbered week and Myles Gaskin is active against the god damn Jets. No, Gaskin isn’t magically a better player this week than he was before, but the Jets are so bad at defending running backs that if you put Rose in the end zone with a beer, Scott could rumble to 20 points on DK against them.

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400

J-Rob is finally free of Urban Meyer’s venomous, barbed tentacles. Interim coach Bevell will undoubtedly establish the physical running game with Robinson, especially without the corpse of Carlos Hyde shuffling about. Houston is just as terrible as Jacksonville, but this game is ripe for fantasy purposes.

WR – Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers – $8,900

Adams is a target vacuum. Aaron Rodgers isn’t a dummy when it comes to finding open receivers or throwing them open. Since there’s nobody on the Ravens that can dream of covering Davante one on one, they will zone out and die by a million PPR cuts. Adams is a must start player at any price.

WR – Nico Collins – Houston Texans – $3,500

It’s a little bit sad that I’m trying to prevent Scott from a three-peat with a Texans skinny stack, but here we are. The rookie Wolverine inexplicably stayed at a very nice salary this week after a 10/5/69 (nice) performance against Seattle last week. He will be among the most likely Texans to score a touchdown on Sunday, which would be a nice continuance of my spend-down receiver hot streak.

WR – Albert Wilson – Miami Dolphins – $3,400

Tua still seems very content with his historically-low aDOT/high completion percentage approach. Without Jalen Waddle, the slot role will go to Wilson, who has shown flashes of brilliant playmaking ability since returning from injury. I’ll bet that Scott has Gesicki here, but I’ll leverage that with Wilson and save a couple thousand to squeeze more studs into my build.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 28: Mark Andrews #89 of the Baltimore Ravens reacts to a play during a game against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

TE – Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – $6,400

Until Travis Kelce lit up Los Angeles in primetime, it was actually Mark Andrews who held the TE1 crown. Green Bay is pretty good on defense this season, but a hobbled Lamar Jackson might be even more dangerous as a passer. Andrews is priced perfectly for his immense upside as the most relied upon option in the Ravens attack.

FLEX – Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – $8,200

Imagine if other dynamic playmakers were given a similar set of plays as Deebo. He has been absolutely outstanding as a receiver and running back this season, scoring touchdowns on what seems like every other time he touches the football. Atlanta is what the kids call “down bad” on defense. I shudder to imagine what Shanny has dialed up for his former team involving his best playmaker.

DST – San Francisco 49ers – $3,100

The Falcons are also what the kids call “trash” on offense. Matt Ryan has yet to find time behind this abysmal offensive line to put up very many decent games. The Niners have a fellow named Nick Bosa that is unblockable for most linemen anyway. This is a pseudo RB-DST stack with Deebo that sounds pretty fun.

Don’t Call It A Comeback, Part 2

Last week I got lucky and Tyler Lockett exploded to help me win my second straight over the illustrious Cash King himself, Bo McBrayer. Bo currently leads our Head-to-Head contest, 8 – 6, so you won’t hear any bragging out of me until I am at least .500. With that being said, I do have the chance for my first three-game winning streak against….oh looks like I just jinxed it….

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,500

LANDOVER, MARYLAND – DECEMBER 12: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys stiff arms Will Bradley-King #56 of the Washington Football Team during the fourth quarter at FedExField on December 12, 2021, in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Dak Prescott let down DraftKings players in Week 14, scoring a paltry11.9 points. That was last week. This week he faces a Giants defense that he absolutely lit up in Week 5, passing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Dak’s floor this week is 20 points and his ceiling is 30. It’s going to feel extra special beating Bo with his own precious Dallas Cowboys quarterback.

RB – Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins– $5,600

Miami Dolphins running back Myles Gaskin runs for yards against the New York Giants during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021, in Miami Gardens. (John McCall/Sun Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Myles Gaskin has cleared the NFL COVID-19 protocols and will be active this week for the Dolphins, making him one of the best value plays at running back on the slate. The New York Jets are dead last against running backs, having given up over 2,300 total yards and 23 touchdowns on the season. On average, they give up 35 points per game to running backs. Myles Gaskin should be in every lineup you build this week.

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400

James Robinson is FREE!!! Well, not completely. He’s actually $5,400 on DraftKings, but he is free from half-wit Urban Meyer. According to interim head coach Darrell Bevell, Robinson will see an increased workload this week with Carlos Hyde OUT with a concussion. It’s tremendous news for DFS players who are looking to finally cash in on Robinson. His matchup against the Texans is a juicy one as well. They currently rank 28th in the NFL against opposing running backs, giving up 26 points per game. Robinson is my second favorite running back play this week behind Gaskin.

WR – Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers – $8,900

GREEN BAY, WI – DECEMBER 12: Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) leaps into the waiting arms of Green Bay Packers center Lucas Patrick (62) during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field on December 12, 2021, in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Davante Adams has been averaging 30.7 DraftKings points per game over his last three games. The man is on fire! This week he faces Ravens secondary that hasn’t been good all season. According to PFF, Adams has the best cornerback matchup this week. Ravens cornerback Cliff Westry has a PFF grade of 58.7. The Ravens’ other starting cornerback, Anthony Averett has a PFF grade of 55.8. No matter who tries to cover Adams, he will be open all day long. He’s the best wide receiver play on the board for me this week.

WR –  Brandin Cooks – Houston Texans – $5,800

Brandin Cooks is the 11th most targeted wide receiver in the NFL through 14 weeks with 109. All the other active receivers on the team have a total of 81. Cooks has been feast or famine lately, scoring 21.1 last week after only registering 8.4 points in Week 13. The last time Cooks faced off against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 he caught five of seven targets for 132 yards. I am expecting more of the same from Cooks this week. If he can find the end zone, he has the potential to score 25 points.

WR – A.J. Green – Arizona Cardinals – $4,900

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 13: AJ Green #18 of the Arizona Cardinals makes a leaping catch against the Los Angeles Rams at State Farm Stadium on December 13, 2021, in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

DeAndre Hopkins is OUT this week. Both A.J. Green and Christian Kirk stand to benefit, but Green is more likely to run Hopkins’ WR1 route tree than Kirk. At $4,900, he’s a perfect Cash play with GPP upside. His opponent, the Detroit Lions, rank 27 in the NFL, giving up 27.2 points per game. The Arizona Cardinals are -13 road favorites in this matchup and should be able to move the ball down the field at will, creating potential red zone opportunities for Green and company. I’m projecting Green for 16 DraftKings points this week.

TE – Pat Freiermuth – Pittsburgh – $4,500

Pat Freiermuth has six touchdowns in his last seven games. He’s currently tied for 2nd amongst all tight ends with Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry who both have seven touchdowns. Freiermuth’s $4,500 price tag is a value for someone who has a great chance to find the end-zone again this week.

Flex – Michael Carter – New York Jets – $4,700

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 21: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Michael Carter #32 of the New York Jets in action against the Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium on November 21, 2021, in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Dolphins defeated the Jets 24-17. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Michael Carter currently has an IR designation next to his name in DraftKings, but he has been practicing all week and according to Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh, he will have a “significant role” in the offense this week. In the four games before his injury, Carter racked up 31 targets, 7.7 per game, and was averaging 19.4 points per game. I’m just looking for 15 points out of him to beat Bo.

DST – Dallas Cowboys – $3,600

Paying up for defense in Cash makes more sense than in GPP tournaments. This week I had to splurge. The New York Giants will be without Daniel Jones again this week. Their 17.8 points per game rank 27th in the NFL. If the Cowboys don’t score a defensive touchdown I would be disappointed.

Featured

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 16! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $8,100

TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 12: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills throws a pass during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Last week I told you to pay up for Josh Allen and he scored 42 points and broke the main slate, outscoring all other quarterbacks by nine points. This week Allen is only being rostered in a projected 10% of DraftKings lineups. His price tag is expensive, good. According to RunTheSims.com, Allen has the highest ceiling for Week 15 quarterbacks, at 37.38 points. The Carolina Panthers might look good on paper, but in reality, they won’t be able to stop Allen or Stefon Diggs. Diggs will be my primarily stacking option, but I will also be double stacking him with Dawson Knox and sprinkling in some Gabriel Davis. Allen is in play for all GPP tournament formats, but I love him for the higher-stakes contests.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – $6,500

Dak Prescott let a lot of DraftKings DFS players down last week after scoring only 11.9 points and breaking the slate, in a bad way. This week Dak and the Cowboys face off against NFC East doormats, the New York Giants. Incredibly Dak’s only picking up 8% rostership as off Friday night (when I am writing this). I’m expecting that number to be close to 12% come kickoff, but he’s still a great value at only $6,500. The last time Dak played the Giants he threw for three touchdowns, 303 passing yards, and scored 25.7 DraftKings points. I’ll be primarily skinny stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb this week in mid-sized GPP contests.

Value – Quarterback

Tua Tagovialoa, Miami Dolphins – $5,700

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 05: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins takes the field prior to the game against the New York Giants at Hard Rock Stadium on December 05, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

The New York Jets are the worst team in the NFL. They give up over 30 points per game to opposing offenses and haven’t been able to stop anyone all season. Tua Tagovialoa registered a quarterback rating of 108 the last time he faced the Jets in 2021, scoring 18 DraftKings points in the process. This week he will be without his number one wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who was placed on the NFL’s COVID-19 list earlier this week. But DeVante Parker is back and Mike Gesicki is also (Teddy KBG voice) hanging around. We’ve seen the likes of Mack Hollins and Isaiah Ford step up and make big plays in the passing game the last few weeks and Myles Gaskin is off the NFL COVID-19 list. I’m not worried about Waddle’s absence and will be above the field based on Tua’s 11% projected rostership.

High Priced – Running Back

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals – $7,200

Joe Mixon has scored the 5th most DraftKings points by a running back this season and is averaging 18.8 points per game. For comparison, Najee Harris is the most expensive running back on the Week 15 DraftKings main slate, priced at $7,800, and is only averaging 0.4 points more per game than Mixon. Before Mixon’s last two performances of 10.4 and 8.8 points, he had been averaging 28.9 points per game in his previous four starts. To top it all off, Mixon is currently only projected for 5% rostership. Fingers crossed people have short memories and fade him in a tougher matchup against the Denver Broncos.

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Mid-Range – Running Back

Cordarrelle Patteron, Atlanta Falcons – $6,900

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – DECEMBER 12: Cordarrelle Patterson #84 of the Atlanta Falcons is tackled by Bravvion Roy #93 of the Carolina Panthers on a run during the second quarter of the game at Bank of America Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Cordarrelle Patterson has scored 10 touchdowns this season. It is seven more than the next closest player on the Falcons. The whole team only has 5 more touchdowns than Patterson, which is absurd. The San Francisco 49ers are going to crush the Falcons and Matty Ice, but not before Patterson gets his this week and scores between 18-20 DraftKings points. At this point in the season, it is what he does. I’m rolling Patterson out as a run-back option for my George Kittle stacks. Giddy-up.

Value – Running Back

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – DECEMBER 12: James Robinson #25 of the Jacksonville Jaguars on the sidelines during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Jaguars 20-0. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

James Robinson is FREE!! Well, not really. He’s priced at $5,400 this week, but he is free from Urban Meyer, that franchise-ruining reprobate who hand single-handedly ruined 2020’s best fantasy football story when he thought career plodder Carlos Hyde was the answer. The word on the street is that Robinson should see his 2020 workload return this week against the Houston Texans, who rank 28th against running backs, giving up over 2,000 rushing/receiving yards and 17 total touchdowns. James Robinson has a really good chance of punching in a score this week. I’m playing him everywhere.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – $8,900

GREEN BAY, WI – DECEMBER 12: Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) leaps into the waiting arms of Green Bay Packers center Lucas Patrick (62) during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field on December 12, 2021 in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Davante Adams is the best wide receiver play on the DraftKings Week 15 main slate. I’m gutted that the LA Rams game got moved to Tuesday, meaning Cooper Kupp is no longer soaking up his rostership, leaving Adams exposed. Currently, he is projected for 15% rostership, the fifth-highest this week. My greatest fear has come true and apparently, people are onto him. Go figure. He’s only been averaging 11 targets per game the last five weeks, which might explain it. Despite his popularity, I’m rolling with Adams naked and in skinny stacks with Aaron Rodgers.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – $5,800

Brandin Cooks is the 11th most targeted wide receiver in the NFL through 14 weeks with 109. All the other active receivers on the team have a total of 81. Cooks has been feast or famine lately, scoring 21.1 last week after only registering 8.4 points in Week 13. The last time Cooks faced off against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 he caught five of seven targets for 132 yards. I am expecting more of the same from Cooks this week. If he can find the end zone, he has the potential to score 25 points.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills – $3,700

TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 12: Gabriel Davis #13 of the Buffalo Bills looks on during the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

After being replaced in the offseason by Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis has quietly scored over 11 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He also has two touchdowns in the last two games, along with 12 targets. This week Sanders is OUT meaning that Davis could see an increased role in the offense. RunTheSims.com projects Davis for just under a 20 point ceiling, exactly the type of cheap lotto ticket we are looking for at $3,700.

High Priced – Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $7,500

CINCINNATI, OH – DECEMBER 12: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers makes a catch during the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The 49ers defeated the Bengals 26-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

George Kittle is a tight end God! In the last two weeks, he has scored 79.8 points and is averaging 39.85 points per game. His 22 receptions, 331 yards receiving yards, and three touchdowns are the most by any player, period. This week Kittle and the San Francisco 49ers host his next victim, the Atlanta Falcons. Some of the sharpest minds in DFS said not to chase Kittle’s point last week. How did that turn out? I told you to play him, hope you are listening this week.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins – $5,000

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 21: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Mack Hollins #86 of the Miami Dolphins celebrates his touchdown against the New York Jets with teammate Mike Gesicki #88 at MetLife Stadium on November 21, 2021 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Dolphins defeated the Jets 24-17. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

The Miami Dolphins roll into New York this weekend at less than full strength due to COVID-19. Jaylen Waddle and his team-high 115 targets are OUT. I expect Myles Gaskin to soak up a few of those targets, but Mike Gesicki should be the primary beneficiary in his absence. Gesicki is second on the team with 89 targets on the season. His seven targets per game over the last 9 weeks means that he should see plenty of volume in this matchup. The Jets give up 15 points per game to the tight end position per week, including 828 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. Gesicki is going to feast this week.

Value – Tight End

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers – $4,500

Pat Freiermuth has six touchdowns in his last seven games. He’s currently tied for 2nd amongst all tight ends with Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry who both have seven touchdowns. Freiermuth’s 5% projected rostership is music to my ears. I will be over the field this week for sure.

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Featured

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

I Find Tinsel Distracting

To have the entire Seinfeld collection at my fingertips is a godsend. Love it or hate it, there are certain episodes that absolutely define comedy. Frank Costanza, portrayed by the late Jerry Stiller, probably has the most laughs-per-appearance in the series. “I’ve got a lot of problems with you people, and now you’re gonna hear about it!” Frank bellowed at the Festivus dinner table during the “airing of grievances.”

Festivus traditions from Seinfeld have trickled into our modern society, long after the airing of the final episode. There hasn’t been a holiday season in my family full of Seinfeld junkies without multiple references to the aluminum pole, the feats of strength, or even my dad joking about getting into a fight when he was attempting to purchase a doll for his son (me). That particular episode is toward the top of the list of things that make me wheeze with uncontrollable laughter.

We pretty much know what every NFL team, and player, is at this point of the season. Our shortness of breath hasn’t been from humor this year, but rather a COVID/injury exasperation. I propose that we spend more time cuddled up on the couch with the family this time of year, rather than grinding the tape and data to gain an edge for two Saturday NFL games or a constricted Week 15 Sunday main slate. With over 100 players in health and safety protocol this week, we are faced with a daunting DFS wasteland of unparalleled proportions. I’ll have some lineups, for sure, but ’tis the season of better priorities. As the NFL season “rains blows upon us,” we must realize there has to be another way. Until Scott pins me, Festivus is NOT over. LET’S RUMBLE!

Week 15 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – OCTOBER 17: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams warms up before a game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on October 17, 2021 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

Quarterbacks

Gold Plated

KYLER MURRAY: @ DETROIT ($7,900)

This is an updated blurb, since Matthew Stafford and the Rams were moved to Monday and are no longer on the main slate. Kyler and the Cards are battered and bruised after a tough home loss to those Rams. I expect them to roll into the Motor City with a chip on their shoulder, knowing their playoff seeding (and home field advantage) rides on their play in the final four games. Murray looked healthy against LA, which means Detroit will be in a world of trouble trying to slow him down.

Rocking the Suburbs

JOE BURROW: @ DENVER ($6,100)***

The drive that drew the Bengals even with the 49ers and forced overtime was a masterpiece of quarterback play by Joe Burrow. The Broncos haven’t been slouches on defense this season, but are severely overmatched against a Bengals team trying to make a playoff push. Burrow has been a touchdown scoring machine and will roll right along in Week 15.

Under the Table

DAVIS MILLS: @ JACKSONVILLE ($5,400)

The Texans are rebuilding, but so are the Jags. Fresh off finally canning the worst coach in NFL history, Jacksonville will likely have some extra pep in their step. That doesn’t replace actual talent, meaning the pass-heavy Texans will air it out against a very poor secondary with the Stanford rookie Mills. Mills now has three 20-plus point performances this season, giving me confidence in his value this week.

Running Backs

Gold Plated

CORDARRELLE PATTERSON: @ SAN FRANCISCO ($6,900)

The two biggest studs at the running back position are playing on Saturday this week. Najee Harris would be a decent play here with his volume, but his salary is very high for his matchup with a tough Titans front seven. I’ll spend down a bit to get Sexy Flexy himself at $6.9k (nice). The 49ers have not been great on defense overall and will struggle to contain Patterson, who has been a model of high-value volume this season.

Rocking the Suburbs

MYLES GASKIN: VS NY JETS ($5,600)

Gaskin let us down in Week 13, his first such faceplant on an odd-numbered week. He rocked 26 touches in Week 11 against these Jets, putting up 18.6 fantasy points. I’ll wager that he will see a similar workload coming off the COVID list and bye week, with plenty of upside to exceed his previous point total against New York.

JAMES ROBINSON: VS HOUSTON ($5,400)***

Urban Meyer was the worst coach in the history of the NFL. Although it was his off-field transgressions that will pay him royally to go away, his usage of fantasy darling J-Rob had us gnashing our teeth and calling for Urban’s head very early in the season. Interim head coach, Darrell Bevell has already stated that Robinson is their starting running back and will be used as such this week. This will be a “remember me?” game for the talented back.

Under the Table

ROYCE FREEMAN: @ JACKSONVILLE ($4,500)

Rolls Royce has gone from one of my favorite all-time Oregon Ducks players to an utter disappointment as a professional. He can right the ship with a shot at some serious volume this week against the reeling Jaguars. The real question here is whether Freeman will see the coveted goal line work in this depleted backfield.

Wide Receivers

Gold Plated

DAVANTE ADAMS: @ BALTIMORE ($8,900)

It would have been a tough coin flip to decide between Adams and Cooper Kupp, but with the Rams game postponed until Monday, we can lock in the Fresno State alum at the top of the price scale. Baltimore’s secondary has struggled all season, where Kupp faces a Seattle team that is 10th best against opposing wide receivers. Aaron Rodgers is the height of entertainment with the “aggravation” news in his toe saga. He will still flood the league’s best receiver with targets.

DEEBO SAMUEL: VS ATLANTA ($8,200)***

The best “wide receiver” play on the board is Deebo. He has received much more work as a running back lately, with the rash of injuries on the 49ers. If Elijah Mitchell plays, Samuel will likely see more receiving work again. If Mitchell is out, Deebo is primed to be deployed like Cordarrelle Patterson in Atlanta. This has yielded spectacular results in the scoring department, since the South Carolina alum seems to find the end zone on every other rushing attempt.

Rocking the Suburbs

BRANDIN COOKS: @ JACKSONVILLE ($5,800)

Davis Mills is good for Cooks. He was incredibly productive with the rookie back under center last week, with a 11/8/101 line. Houston faces another horrible defense this week in the Jags, making Cooks’ $100 price increase a tantalizing value for cash games.

Under the Table

AJ GREEN: @ DETROIT ($4,900)

I am sad to report that one of my favorite players in the NFL, DeAndre Hopkins, is out for the rest of the regular season with a sprained knee. Not lost on me is how Green was utilized against the Rams last week, even with Hopkins on the field. His 10-target, 100-yard performance is nearly a shoo-in for a repeat against the Lions this week. The Cards run a ton of plays and are really jockeying for playoff seeding at this point. Green will be fantastic.

DEVANTE PARKER*: VS NY JETS ($4,300)

Another devastating blow to the fantasy community was Jalen Waddle hopping on the COVID list this week. Parker was very handy in his return to health last week, corralling all five of his targets for 62 yards. Tua Tagovailoa has been a picture of efficiency lately, so a bump in volume will almost certainly equate to a bump in fantasy points for the Louisville alum.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 28: Mark Andrews #89 of the Baltimore Ravens reacts to a play during a game against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Tight Ends

Gold Plated

GEORGE KITTLE: VS ATLANTA ($7,500)

This guy is on a ridiculous hot streak. In fact, Kittle is the first tight end in NFL history to reach 150 receiving yards and a touchdown in consecutive games. He is getting to quite the lofty salary now, but the Falcons are so unequivocally terrible that it shouldn’t matter. If you can fit Kittle in your roster, do it.

MARK ANDREWS: VS GREEN BAY ($6,400)***

Until Travis Kelce went thermonuclear on Thursday night, the TE1 on the season was Mark Andrews. I expect Lamar Jackson to play on Sunday, but without as much moving around. The Ravens have looked more dangerous as an offense when airing it out this season. Andrews, along with Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman, should still cause a coverage dilemma for the Packers. I have him projected for virtually the same stat line as Kittle, but for $1,100 less.

Rocking the Suburbs

MIKE GESICKI: VS NY JETS ($5,000)

The uber-athletic tight end hasn’t been the apple of Tua’s eye this year, with the southpaw signal caller instead spreading it around with frustrating precision. Jalen Waddle missing this game vacates a lot of work for Gesicki, especially on third down and in the red zone. He will be force in the middle price range on Sunday.

Under the Table

JOSIAH DEGUARA: @ BALTIMORE ($2,700)

I just had to shout out my fellow NorCal native, who has already gained much more trust from another NorCal product, Aaron Rodgers. DeGuara, from Sacramento, has filled in very nicely for the injured Robert Tonyan. The Ravens have been abysmal against the tight end position, which means if my guy Josiah can get open, Rodgers will find him.

Featured

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

Something About a Blind Squirrel

Don’t let his gruff exterior fool you, Scott Simpson is incapable of doing harm. That is, unless you are in the DraftKings lobby, with banks of flickering fluorescent lights and creaky floorboards. In that world, he’s leaning into the bricks in a leather jacket, carving a Fuji apple with a switchblade knife. For some unknown reason, he’s wearing skull rings on every finger and keeps muttering something about ROI under his breath.

Like a wild animal backed into a corner, his pupils contract to pinpoints and he hisses and shrieks before mounting a furious counterattack. I had driven him to that, with a month of deprivation from the sweet, thick nectar of victory. Parched, he championed a trio of wide receivers who rode in on translucent steeds to the tune of 84.40 fantasy points. He coaxed an immortal goat from his patch of thistle to cap off a resounding 27-point triumph over my more-than-adequate band of hired guns.

I liked my lineup. It was quite strong, but Scott’s lineup was the highest score in the Clash so far this season. It was quite remarkable how vividly I picture the squirrel in Ice Age finally capturing the elusive acorn. Scott is the squirrel. Ice Age has multiple sequels. I will have my vengeance in an eruption of pyroclastic flow.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,700

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 11: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his touchdown reception against the New York Giants during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium on October 11, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The quarterback for America’s Team is my favorite to roster on DK this week. His letdown performance against the Saints last week drove his salary down by $400, making this value impossible to ignore. Washington isn’t built to beat this Cowboys team, especially coming off a 10-day break.

RB – Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $7,900

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 25: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints scores a fifth touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Mercedes-Benz Superdome on December 25, 2020 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

He’s baaaack. No, not Cam Newton. AK41 is back to take on the very worst defense in the NFL at defending the running back position. To roster a healthy Kamara under $8k is Valhalla. The Saints are in a must-win situation with a mere speed bump in the way. The god damn Jets are going to get steamrolled.

RB – Antonio Gibson – Washington Football Team – $6,000

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 05: Antonio Gibson #24 of the Washington Football Team scores on a touchdown reception against the Las Vegas Raiders during the fourth quarter of a game at Allegiant Stadium on December 05, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Washington Football Team defeated the Raiders 17-15. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)

It seems fitting that Gibson against the Cowboys led to my demise on Thanksgiving 2020. Washington has given the Memphis product all the work he can handle since their bye week. Dallas has good numbers against running backs on paper, but have truly been gashed when teams emphasize the inside zone running game.

WR – Michael Gallup – Dallas Cowboys – $5,500

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 02: Michael Gallup #13 of the Dallas Cowboys catches the ball for a touchdown as Bradley Roby #21 of the New Orleans Saints defends in the first quarter of the game at Caesars Superdome on December 02, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Gallup has the highest projected points-per-dollar value on this slate for me. He draws one of the friendliest matchups possible with the Washington secondary. All three Cowboys wideouts will feast on Sunday, with Gallup doing so at the lowest DK salary.

WR – Nick Westbrook-Ikhine – Tennessee Titans – $4,500

Houston and Jacksonville have had similar struggles in coverage this season. Two weeks ago, NWI was running wide open all game and put up over 20 fantasy points. As stunning as it is to imagine a team “coached” by Urban Meyer struggling with communication, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Westbrook-Ikhine light this defense up at a bargain.

WR – Joshua Palmer – LA Chargers – $3,000

Speaking of bargains, Palmer is a less-polished version of Mike Williams. Williams is unlikely to be activated from the COVID reserve list for Sunday’s game, vaulting the rookie from Tennessee into a prominent role. Keenan Allen is already ruled out. Palmer is a touchdown waiting to happen against the dreadful New York Giants.

TE – Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,400

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – AUGUST 20: Tight end Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs on the sidelines during the first half of the NFL preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on August 20, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Chiefs defeated the Cardinals 17-10. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

The Chiefs are back on the main slate this week, bringing the ultimate stack back into play. I won’t have very many lineups that won’t have Kelce as a pillar. The Raiders stink. Don’t think for one second that I forgot about Week 10, when Kelce went for 10/8/119 in Vegas, for his best performance since Week 3.

FLEX – Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers – $5,900

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 31: Chuba Hubbard #30 of the Carolina Panthers runs with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

I think Chuba stinks. He’s simply not that good at football. What does not stink is his gorgeous matchup with the Falcons, nor his sub-$6k salary. In Atlanta in Week 8, the Oklahoma State rookie got a hefty 24 carries and scored a touchdown. Matt Rhule wants to pound the rock, now that Joe Brady was sacked. A little more receiving volume and a tick up in the yards per carry would be nice step toward hating Chuba a bit less.

DST – Carolina Panthers – $2,800

Running backs are fun to stack with their correlating DST, especially when they face really bad teams. Atlanta has allowed the most points to opposing defenses in fantasy, which means they don’t score many points and surrender a ton of sacks and turnovers. The Panthers DST scored 11 DK points in Week 8 in Atlanta with three sacks and two interceptions. That was at a higher salary, to boot.

Don’t Call it A Comeback

Literally don’t call my resounding victory over Bo in the ‘Clash of the Beards and Bellies’ last week “a comeback.” I’m officially 5 – 8 against Bo through 13 weeks of NFL action. It’s pathetic. No celebration from me this week. I’ll start celebrating when I’m over .500. Right, Jeff Fischer?

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,700

The smart money is on Dak this weekend at only $6,700. No big shocker that Bo is all over this play as well. The Cowboys’ 26 implied point total means that points should be plentiful come Sunday. With Amari Cooper healthy and an ailing Tony Pollard, look for Dak to get it done through the air, I’m projecting him for over 300 yards passing and three touchdowns, or around 23 DraftKings points.

RB – Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas Raiders – $6,200

LAS VEGAS, NV – DECEMBER 5: Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) beats the tackle by Washington Football Team outside linebacker Cole Holcomb (55) as he runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown in the fourth quarter during a game the Washington Football Team and the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on December 5, 2021. (Photo by John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

I’m really high on Josh Jacobs this week. Last week he saw nine targets and has seen 30 over the last six weeks. All it took for Jacobs to finally become a PPR back was for Gruden to be fired. Who knew? This week the Raiders should lean on Jacobs in the rushing and passing game, as Darren Waller will miss another game with knee and back injuries. Look for Jacobs to see 20 plus touches in this matchup against a Chiefs’ defense that 25 points per game to running backs.

RB – Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos – $5,900

KANSAS CITY, MO – DECEMBER 05: Willie Gay Jr. #50 of the Kansas City Chiefs reaches to tackle Javonte Williams #33 of the Denver Broncos during the second quarter at Arrowhead Stadium on December 5, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Javonte Williams is a stud. Last week he finally showed off and showed out, scoring over 30 DraftKings points in Melvin Gordon’s absence. This week Gordon should be back this week, but Williams is the healthy and dynamic back you want to start against the hapless Lions. Sure they got their first win last week, but this week they are down two starting running backs, and T.J. Hockenson is doubtful. The Lions are terrible against the run, giving up over 1,700 total yards and 18 touchdowns to backs in 12 games. Don’t overthink this one, roll with Williams.

WR – CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys – $7,200

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 22: CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys pulls in a touchdown pass against Jeff Gladney #20 of the Minnesota Vikings during their game at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 22, 2020 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)

CeeDee Lamb ranks 11th for DraftKings wide receivers, averaging 17.4 points per game this season. Over his last six games though, Lamb has averaged 19.3 and over a 25% target share. The Cowboys have lost the last two games vs. the Washington Football Team, giving up 66 points in those two games. The Cowboys are going to need their top-ranked NFL offense to show up if they are going to win this matchup and the NFC East. I expect Dak to target Lamb 7-9 times in this high-scoring game, providing him with plenty of opportunities to bring back value. I’m actually shocked that Bo didn’t roster him.

WR –  Tyler Lockett – Seattle Seahawks – $6,700

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 9: Wide receiver Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates after scoring a fourth quarter touchdown under coverage by defensive back Justin Simmons #31 of the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on September 9, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Seattle’s rushing attack has been decimated by injuries this season, losing Chris Carson for the season. Bad news for the Seahawks, but good news for Tyler Lockett, who has been averaging eight targets per game the last five weeks. His 88.8 receiving yards per game over that stretch lead the team. Lockett has a safe 10 point floor, but a tremendous ceiling against PFF’s 82nd ranked cornerback Terrance Mitchell. With a career low 58.6 grade this year, Mitchell is exploitable.

WR – Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,600

Mike Evans is averaging over seven targets per game over the last six weeks and at $6,600 was just too juicy to pass up. Sure, Chris Godwin has seen his target share increase during Antonio Brown’s absence, Evans quietly has six touchdowns in his last six games. I’m banking on Evans to score a solid ho-hum,18-20 points against the Bills. Nothing special, just keep me in the game.

TE – Ricky Seals-Jones – Washington Football Team – $3,600

Logan Thomas is OUT for the rest of the season. Perfect time for Ricky Seals-Jones to heal up and return to the lineup against Dallas. We’ve already seen Taylor Heinicke consistently target the tight end position in this offense. The Cowboys haven’t been impressive against tight ends, giving up 13.75 points per game this season. When he’s started, Seals-Jones is seeing a 17% target share. Wheels up people.

Flex – Jeff Wilson Jr – San Francisco 49ers – $4,400

SEATTLE, WA – DECEMBER 5: Jeff Wilson Jr. #22 of the San Francisco 49ers on the field before the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on December 5, 2021 in Seattle, Washington. The Seahawks defeated the 49ers 30-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

My good friend Dave Kluge recently pointed out that in six career starts, Jeff Wilson is averaging around 17 fantasy points per game. That’s good right? Hell, at $4,400, it’s great. The only question is whether or not Wilson will be a true lead back, garnering 60-70% of touches or if its more of a 50/50 split with JaMycal Hasty. I’m leaning towards the former in this matchup against the Bengals. Wilson could be in line for 20 touches against a Bengals teams that

DST – Cleveland Browns – $2,700

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have not looked right all season. Last time these two teams met the Browns picked Jackson off four times. This play will either socre big for me or come back to haunt me. Fingers crossed Lamar struggles in this matchup.

Featured

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Take Care Y’all’s Chicken

“Ya feel me?” I feel ya, Marshawn. I know in my heart of hearts that many who will read this know struggle. I come across folks from all walks of life in my day job. If I asked some of them to talk about their financial wellbeing, they would likely lament the bevy of obstacles that have presented themselves in the last two years. Some, including me, would curse the darkness that has surfaced in the desperate faces around us. December isn’t as joyous as it was when we were younger. With tinsel and holly comes a mountain of pressure and daunting expectations. Most of us are not well.

Taking care of our mentals, as Beast Mode would colloquialize, is a staggering test in today’s climate. Financial struggles are incendiary to stress, anxiety, and depression. I know about struggle. I also have gone through periods of my life where the future was bleak and left me fearful that there was little reason to hope or expect my situation to improve. I also know about privilege, about blessings. A simple step back to assess the landscape makes it obvious that I am incredibly fortunate to have what I do.

I might not be lighting the world on fire with remarkable success, but there’s a glowing optimism that drives me forward. I have a beautiful family that understands and loves me for the person I am. I have a home with pets that cling to us like velcro. I have a stable career with healthcare benefits. I have hobbies and interests that stimulate me to take on new challenges on a whim. A person without these things isn’t lesser. I wear my privilege on the outside. I acknowledge where I didn’t need to climb as high of a mountain as someone else to get where I am. We are equals seeking equality of opportunity.

Take care y’all’s chicken. I watched that presser when Marshawn Lynch stared into the camera and actually spoke to his audience through the media. “Take care of your money…because that shit don’t last forever.”

DFS is one source of income I never banked on before. It used to be a hobby that would sporadically reward me for simultaneous sharpness and luck. Nowadays, luck comes a little more freely. “Luck is where hard work meets opportunity,” according to Vince Lombardi. DFS puts stress on that adage. I’d say that luck comes to the doorstep of those who leave the porch light on. Keep plugging away. If you practice an interest enough, you will get better at it. DFS cash games every NFL Sunday are a rollercoaster, but I, along with a few others, have adapted ourselves to be impervious to motion sickness.

Week 14 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 14: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his rushing touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Quarterbacks

Gold-Plated

PATRICK MAHOMES: VS LAS VEGAS ($8,000)

It wouldn’t have mattered if Mahomes was $10k in Week 10 against the Raiders: he was going to be the best play on the board, coming in at 39.2 points on DK. That was in Vegas and the Raiders have only further unraveled from that point. Arrowhead will be rocking, especially looking for the Chiefs to punish the Raiders for their victory lap around the stadium on the team bus last year. Don’t be afraid to spend up to get Mahomes any week, especially with a chance to sew up the AFC West against a very weak defense.

Rocking the Suburbs

DAK PRESCOTT: @ WASHINGTON ($6,700)***

The Saints didn’t make it easy on Dak last week. He dinked and dunked 40 passing attempts, only hitting 12.2 fantasy points. Washington has played better defensively of late but is still having trouble covering good receivers (of which Dallas has three). Injuries to Elliott and Pollard also add impetus to Dak putting the offense on his back to put this division away for good. I expect a very big fantasy day for this year’s Alex Smith Award winner.

Under the Table

TAYSOM HILL: @ NY JETS ($5,600)

My mind was boggled last Thursday night. The Mormon Missile was terrible. Dallas picked him off four times, two more interceptions were dropped, and a strip-sack was narrowly averted after the replay showed Hill’s arm was barely moving forward. He still managed to score 27.7 points. The Jets defense is among the worst in the NFL in every category. The return of Alvin Kamara also puts immense stress on the defensive front seven. There will be no reason Taysom Hill won’t produce for fantasy, even if you have to fade his chalk in GPP and watch the game through your fingers with a puke bucket nearby.

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – OCTOBER 31: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints stands on the field during a NFL game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Caesars Superdome on October 31, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Running Backs

Gold-Plated

ALVIN KAMARA: @ NY JETS ($7,900)***

The Jets are bad against every offensive position but are historically abysmal against opposing running backs. They are still an average of nearly 10 FPPG worse than the next-worst team, at 35 PPR points allowed per game. The key to this has been their utter inability to cover pass-catching running backs. Do you see where I’m going with this? Kamara is the best receiver at his position not named Christian McCaffrey. He will be as chalky as all hell, but there’s no reason to fade him whatsoever.

Rocking the Suburbs

ANTONIO GIBSON: VS DALLAS ($6,000)

I’m very nervous about the Cowboys this week. Their baboon of a coach, Mike McCarthy, gave Washington a bunch of bulletin board material by guaranteeing victory. The No-Namers are already led by one of the most inspirational figures in sports, Riverboat Ron Rivera. They also have been feeding their stud back Gibson a gluttonous mound of touches the last couple of weeks. Volume pays the bills and Gibby has already ripped the Cowboys apart a couple times in his young career.

Under the Table

D’ONTA FOREMAN: VS JACKSONVILLE ($5,100)

This is a hunch, but I think Mike Vrabel loves the way Foreman runs. He’s the kind of running back that thrives on a team run with the Belichick mentality. His 109 rushing yards in Week 12 will go a long way to ensure he keeps his pre-bye workload into this game against the pitiful Jags. I also put a high probability on Foreman scoring his first touchdown of the season on Sunday.

Wide Receivers

Gold-Plated

TYREEK HILL: VS LAS VEGAS ($8,500)

Yes, I was actually disappointed that Cheetah only scored 27 points against the Raiders in Week 10. He scored twice early on but finished the game with 83 receiving yards on 10 targets. It was good, but it could have been so much better. I have him for 140 yards on nine receptions and at least one touchdown this time around. It’s his stable target volume that keeps him on the Cash list any time he is on the Main Slate.

Rocking the Suburbs

MICHAEL GALLUP: @ WASHINGTON ($5,500)***

Washington’s defensive backs are very slow, have stiff hips, and have terrible ball skills. This equates to receivers getting huge chunk plays on vertical routes. Gallup isn’t merely a field stretcher. His speed, body control, and hand-eye coordination are all elite and will pose major issues for the No-Named defense. At only $5.5k, the supposed “third option” for Dak Prescott is my best value play on the slate.

Under the Table

JOSHUA PALMER*: VS NY GIANTS ($3,000)

The NFL is an 18-week war of attrition. The COVID pandemic has added even more uncertainty to weekly roster decisions. The Chargers will likely be without top receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this week, putting the Tennessee rookie, Palmer and second-year pro, Jalen Guyton in Justin Herbert’s crosshairs. Palmer is more inclined to score a touchdown this week as the bigger body. He is a raw version of Mike Williams, which I can see as endearing to his quarterback.

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 10: Buffalo Bills outside linebacker A.J. Klein (54) looks to tackle Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) in the third quarter of an NFL football game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs on Oct 10, 2021 at GEHA Filed at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Tight Ends

Gold-Plated

TRAVIS KELCE: VS LAS VEGAS ($7,400)***

Without a doubt, I was ecstatic to get Kelce back on the Main Slate this week. All of the primetime games and bye week left me yearning for a great spend-up lock in the tight end dystopian wasteland. I did hit big on George Kittle last week (he’s another good one this week) and now look to lock in the immense positional advantage of Kelce against a reeling Raiders team. Kelce is a cornerstone player in all of my builds.

Rocking the Suburbs

EVAN ENGRAM: @ LA CHARGERS ($3,500)

Crazy, right? Yes, I still call Engram “Old Stone Hands.” What I have also noticed is Engram remaining a healthy asset for the most pathetic team in the NFL (in my opinion). Casting away a garbage offensive coordinator has liberated the Mississippi tight end to actually run routes down the field. His target volume has been steady, which gives me less pause this week against a Chargers defense that quite literally forces their opponents to funnel plays to the middle of the field.

Under the Table

DONALD PARHAM JR: VS NY GIANTS ($2,800)

With the dearth of healthy receiving options for the Chargers, many will overlook Parham. He has been nothing more than a random red zone tall guy most of the season, but I am optimistic that they will use his unique size and skillset to attack the Giants. We’re digging deeper for a cash game than usual here, but sometimes you need that tall, dart throw tight end posting up in the end zone to put you over the pay line.

Featured

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 14! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $7,800

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 31: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after a touchdown run during the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images)

According to RunTheSims.com, Josh Allen has the third-highest for quarterbacks in Week 14. Allen and the Bills are facing the Buccaneers that rank 17th against wide receivers, giving up 35 points per game. The Bills pass the football 60% of the time, Allen averaging 37 attempts per game. The 53.5 point total suggests that Vegas has this matchup pegged for a shootout. The Bucs’ strength is stopping the run and the Bills’ weakness is rushing the football. I would not be surprised if Allen dropped back 50 times this week and picked up some rushing yardage as well.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – $6,700

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 14: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his rushing touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Dak Prescott priced at $6,700 is one of my favorite plays for all of Week 14. The Washington Football Team ranks 32nd against quarterbacks and 30th against wide receivers giving up 39 points per game. I expect this game to be wild, each team trading explosive scoring plays. I’m stacking Dak with his favorite weapon, CeeDee Lamb, and running it back with at least one member of the Washington Football Team, preferably stand-out wide receiver “Scary” Terry McLaurin. McLaurin roasted Trevon Diggs the last time the Cowboys visited Washington. This game is one of my favorite to stack.

Value – Quarterback

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints – $5,400

The New York Jets are terrible against the run, giving up over 1,500 yards on the season. Tayson Hill is primarily a rusher masquerading as a quarterback, which makes him a great play this week. Don’t overthink this one. Last week Hill scored 27 points, despite throwing four interceptions. I love Hill as a pay-down option for smaller single-entry tournaments.

High Priced – Running Back

Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers – $8,400

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 19: Austin Ekeler #30 of the Los Angeles Chargers runs with the ball during a 20-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys at SoFi Stadium on September 19, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Austin Ekeler is the second leading scoring running back on DraftKings with 260 points on the season. The Chargers will look to lean heavily on him this weak as they will be down top starting wide receiver Keenan Allen. Ekeler has a juicy matchup this week against a Giants defense that gives up 26 points per game to the running back position. Ekeler entered Week 14 as the leader in running back targets, averaging 5.9 per game. Ekeler is picking up 16% rostership, which makes him a leverage play over Alvin Kamara with is currently rostered in 33% of DraftKings main slate lineups.

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Mid-Range – Running Back

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders – $6,200

LAS VEGAS, NV – DECEMBER 5: Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) beats the tackle by Washington Football Team outside linebacker Cole Holcomb (55) as he runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown in the fourth quarter during a game the Washington Football Team and the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on December 5, 2021. (Photo by John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Remember when we all said, “If only Josh Jacobs saw targets” well now he’s seeing targets, nine last week and 30 in his last six games. The Chiefs have given up over 1,700 total yards to running backs on the season. The Raiders know that they can’t compete in a fast-paced game with Mahomes and will be looking to get the ball in Jacobs’ hands to slow the game down and control the clock. I am projecting him for 20 touches. He can be used as a run-back option if you game-stack him with Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Value – Running Back

Jeff Wilson, San Francisco 49ers – $4,400

Jeff Wilson practiced on Thursday and Friday, indicating that he should be ready to go this Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. Wilson hasn’t been spectacular when he’s been featured this season, his $4,400 price is hard to ignore. If he does score and rush for 80 yards, he could score 18 points and pay-off as a value in your flex. I’m comfortable playing Wilson in larger field GPP tournaments and

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – $7,200

CeeDee Lamb is averaging 17.4 DraftKings points per game, good for 11th best amongst wide receivers. His 8.7 targets per game over his last six games, which translated to 19.3 DarftKings points per game over that same span. OccupyFantasy.com is projecting Lamb for only 9% rostership, making him a viable option for smaller field stacks with Dak. I will be running Lamb primarily with Dak, and will be closer to 15-18% exposure.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Mike Williams, LA Chargers – $6,000

KANSAS CITY, MO – DECEMBER 13: Wide receiver Mike Williams #81 of the Los Angeles Chargers lunges for a touchdown past the tackle of defensive back Daniel Sorensen #49 of the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on December 13, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Mike Williams is currently on the NFL’s COVID-19 list, but the Chargers are expecting to get him back for this matchup with the New York Giants. The Chargers will be without All-Pro wide receiver Keenan Allen, who is not projected to be cleared from his positive COVID-19 test. William’s $6,000 price means that he will be popular, between 20-25% rostership this weekend. I’m not fading this chalk, Williams is facing a Giants’ secondary that gives up 36 points per game to wide receivers and surrendered 14 touchdowns and close to 2,000 total yards.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Laquon Treadwell, Jacksonville Jaguars – $3,400

Laquon Treadwell is DFS relevant, finally! He’s led the Jag’s in targets over the last three weeks and should see plenty of actions again this week against a Tennessee Titans secondary that gives up over 43 fantasy points to wide receivers on average. I know people will be chasing Josh Palmer at $3,000, but the Titans are a better match with more potential volume headed Treadwell’s way.

High Priced – Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $6,900

SEATTLE, WA – DECEMBER 5: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers makes a catch and takes it 48-yards for a touchdown during the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on December 5, 2021 in Seattle, Washington. The Seahawks defeated the 49ers 30-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

George Kittle is an animal and a ballerina, after tip-toeing down the sideline in spectacular fashion for his 48 yards touchdown last week. He scored 42 DraftKings points and is only priced up to $6,900 (noice). I’m buying all the Kittle this week against the Bengals. He’s expensive, which is has driven his rostership under 8%. He’s a great leverage play over folks who are paying up for Travis Kelce at $7,400.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – $5,000

Dawson Knox isn’t the best tight end play this week, but at $5,000 he’s the exact same price as Cole Beasley with 4x less rostership, making him tremendous leverage in all GPP tournaments. He does have 19 targets the last three weeks and a potential negative game script in his matchup with the Buccaneers going for him as well. I expect him to see 6-8 targets this week against and find the end-zone.

Value – Tight End

Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team – $3,600

Ricky Seals-Jones steps into a role he had a few weeks ago before getting injured. This week, he should step into 5-6 targets with potential red-zone opportunities. He’s a great run-back if you are stacking the Cowboys, and who isn’t this week?

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Featured

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

We’re Going Streaking

Bring your green hat, everyone’s doing it. Just like Frank the Tank in the timeless classic Old School, I’m streaking through the quad. I’ve been known to throw back some brewskis, but I typically go long periods of time before I hit the level of inebriation that induces public nudity. I may have plenty of cause to pop the cork on some Dom Perignon after I mashed Scott’s potatoes on Thanksgiving for my fourth-consecutive official victory (then again unofficially on the Sunday main slate and yet again on the Monday night showdown slate), but I’ll remain stoic and modest.

Scott is still a very talented DFS player. He is outpacing me in earnings this season, leaving me clutching at my gentlemanly victories like they are the last marbles that I have yet to lose. I wholeheartedly believe I will win yet again on Sunday in this Clash and take another non-cardio victory lap on the SportsMe app. I’m making like Matthew Berry with a love-hate lineup for Week 13, littered with juicy matchups.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins – $5,500

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 28: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins during their game against the Carolina Panthers at Hard Rock Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)

I went on record this offseason to say I think Tua is a much better real-life quarterback than he is for fantasy. I’m feeling very wrong for the last couple of weeks. He has been the picture of consistency and precision. He also gets a cupcake matchup with extra sprinkles this week at home against the pathetic Giants. Devante Parker is also slated to return. At this salary, he’s definitely good for fantasy.

RB – Alexander Mattison – Minnesota Vikings – $7,600

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 28: Alexander Mattison #25 of the Minnesota Vikings runs the ball for a touchdown in the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

I hated Mattison as a player until this season. He had simply never performed when given chances to carry the load in Dalvin Cook’s absence. As amazing as it would have been to see Cook take on the Lions even once this year, we already saw Mattison rip them apart earlier in the season. The salary is sharp, but the play is sharper.

RB – Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts – $9,200

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 28: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts is tackled by Lavonte David #54 and Sean Murphy-Bunting #23 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

I stan for JT. He has been my dynasty RB1 since Week 10 last season and hasn’t looked back. After two brutally tough matchups, where he still returned value in DFS, he is back on the AFC South cupcake tour against Houston. You might recall his 30 point performance before he was really on a roll. Scott should be shaking at the potential ceiling game incoming.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $9,000

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 28: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams avoids a tackle by Henry Black #41 of the Green Bay Packers during the second halfat Lambeau Field on November 28, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

The Jags did corral the powerful Bills earlier this year, but I believe Sean McVay will pull the tape on that game and isolate his best offensive player against the soft underbelly of this defense. The injuries to other skill players will force the Rams to lean even heavier on Kupp, which excites me, to say the least.

WR – Josh Reynolds – Detroit Lions – $3,400

Scott had one call right on Thanksgiving, throwing the former Ram and Titan into his GPP lines. The level of desolation in the Lions’ receiving corps was never more apparent than when Reynolds was thrown in the trash by a receiver-starved Titans team, then latched on with Detroit and was immediately their best option. The Vikings’ secondary is hot garbage and will have to defend a lot of pass plays.

WR – Quez Watkins – Philadelphia Eagles – $3,600

Quez is very young and raw, but he is making huge strides in this offense every week. He has already supplanted the atrocious Jalen Reagor on the depth chart. He gets a further upgrade with the much more accurate Gardner Minshew at quarterback for the Birds.

TE – Foster Moreau – Las Vegas Raiders – $2,700

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 21: Foster Moreau #87 of the Las Vegas Raiders looks for a flag in the game against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second quarter at Allegiant Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)

My main waiver squeeze this week (I have a TON of Darren Waller) is down at his normal backup price on DK. I don’t foresee a ton of upside for Moreau this week, and he will be entirely too chalky in GPPs, but he slides into this build like a cheese raclette.

FLEX – Elijah Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers – $6,000

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 28: Elijah Mitchell #25 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Levi’s Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

Shanahan has chosen Mitchell to be his bell cow. He now has very little choice, with injuries to Mostert and Sermon. Mitchell fits the scheme like a glove and was given a full load last week against the Vikings. The Seahawks are one of the worst defenses against the running back position as it is, so don’t be surprised if Mitchell goes for even more points this week.

DST – San Francisco 49ers – $3,000

A lot of people are grasping at straws this week, hoping that the Seahawks will finally allow DK Metcalf to catch passes again. I say, “the Seahawks really suck.” Russell Wilson is now cringeworthy on and off the field. The 49ers have hit a stride on defense and will be all over Wilson with Nick Bosa and company, with nary a single shred of threat in their running game. This is my favorite RB/DST stack on the slate.

Was it Over When the German’s Bombed Pearl Harbor?!!

In the legendary words of John ‘Bluto’ Blutarsky:

“What? Over? Did you say ‘over’? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!…

It ain’t over now, ’cause when the goin’ gets tough, the tough get goin’. Who’s with me? Let’s go! Come on!…(He ran to the front door but no one followed him)

Bluto (returning): What the fuck happened to the Delta I used to know? Where’s the spirit? Where’s the guts, huh? This could be the greatest night of our lives, but you’re gonna let it be the worst. ‘Ooh, we’re afraid to go with you, Bluto, we might get in trouble.’ (shouting) Well, just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I’m not gonna take this. Bo, he’s a dead man! McBigTime, dead! Niedermeyer…”

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,200

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 28: Rob Gronkowski #87 and Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are seen before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Tom Brady threw for five touchdowns and scored over 30 points the last time he played against the Falcons. It’s like it’s still Super Bowl 51 and the Falcons cannot stop Brady. I expect a safe 20 point floor from Brady, with a 30 point ceiling. I’m pairing him with Chris Godwin to inflict twice the pain on Bo each time they connect for a touchdown, which I am hoping is twice.

RB – James Conner – Arinzona Cardinals – $5,900

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 14: Running back James Conner #6 of the Arizona Cardinals scores on a 11-yard rushing touchdown against the Carolina Panthers during the fourth quarter of the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Panthers defeated the Cardinals 34-10. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

James Conner has been averaging 22.5 DraftKings points per game over his last four starts. The Bears are more than a touchdown underdog in this matchup which means that James Conner might be the hammer all game and then at the end to salt them away and grind out the clock. I am projecting him for 18 points, and a bright red flame next to his score on Sunday.

RB – Elijah Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers – $6,000

The Seattle Seahawks are terrible against the run. They give up over 31 points per game each week. Elijah Mitchell is the truth and my partner Mike “Cash” Collins at the Fantasy Millionaires was right. I was wrong. I want the whole world to know. I learn from my mistakes and think that Mitchell could be the absolute nuts this week at $6,000. Just like Bo to cock-block me by playing Mitchell this week as well. Looks like he’s eating Mike’s humble pie as well. Good to see. Tip of the cap to you good sir.

WR – Keenan Allen – LA Chargers – $7,500

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 21: Keenan Allen #13 of the Los Angeles Chargers reacts after a first down against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the third quarter at SoFi Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Keenan Allen is averaging 11.6 targets per game and already has 116 total targets this season, good for third overall at wide receiver. His 31% target share the last five weeks gives me confidence that 12-16 points are close to guaranteed. This game also has the potential to shoot out, which means at 20 plus point ceiling. He’s worth the $7,500 this week.

WR – Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,600

Chris Godwin is $6,600 and one of the best Cash and GPP plays on the board this week. The last time Tom Brady and Chris Godwin played the Atlanta Falcons earlier this season Godwin caught four of five targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. Godwin’s top 10 PFF matchup gives him the slight edge over stacking Mike Evans with Brady.

WR –  Tee Higgins – Cincinnatti Bengals – $5,800

CINCINNATI, OHIO – NOVEMBER 28: Tee Higgins #85 of the Cincinnati Bengals catches the ball over James Pierre #42 of the Pittsburgh Steelers for a touchdown during the first quarter at Paul Brown Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Tee Higgins showed out last week, catching six of eight for 114 yards, a touchdown, and 26.4 DraftKings points. This week the Bengals are favored in a potentially high-scoring game. The Vegas total is 49.5, which means that there will be plenty of points to be scored on both sides. Higgins priced at $5,800 is a tremendous Cahs game value with GPP upside.

TE – Foster Moreau – Las Vegas Raiders – $2,700

Foster Moreau is stepping into a very productive role in the Raiders offense. The last time he was the starter he caught all six of his targets for 60 yards and a score. His 18 DraftKings points are his ceiling, but his floor is safe in a matchup that is projected to reach or exceed 50 points. The $2,700 is just too good to pass up and I’m not surprised Bo has Moreau rostered as well.

Flex – Jamaal Williams – Detroit Lions – $5,400

Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams (30) looks down the field during warmups prior to an NFL football game between the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears in Detroit, Michigan USA, on Thursday, November 25, 2021. (Photo by Amy Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Jamaal Williams is the only game in town this week at running back for the Detroit Lions, who continue to establish the run, despite its futility. I love him in the flex this week, coming off of Thanksgiving when Bo beat me with Williams, it is going to feel extra special regifting him to Bo this week. LOL

DST – Cincinnati Bengals – $2,800

The Bengals were the most appealing pay-down option this week. I’m not in love with this play, but could definitely see them forcing a few turnovers and getting to Justin Herbert a few times.

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Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Trinkets and Baubles

December is here again. With the holiday season in full swing, my family is also celebrating my in-laws’ 40th anniversary and my nephew’s birthday early in the month. That’s also the precursor to the 29th, where my sister, daughter, close friend Vince (the one who first called me Big Time), and Matthew Berry celebrate their birthday. December is also a special month for football, with the NFL playoff race and college bowl season, but I’ll beg your pardon if I seem distant. I have a lot of things to juggle and stress about.

My daughter will be nine years old this year. She’s as sharp as they come and was gifted with an old soul, full of wisdom beyond her years. She also inherited my inability to pick up after myself in a timely manner. The kid is a tornado of crafting, drawings, video games, and stuffed animals. It took her and I two hours to clean her room last night. We folded clothes and had piles of stuff to throw away, donate to charity, and relocate. In the end, she still staunchly refused to throw away an old Amazon box with a blanket and a couple toys, where our cat Juney “occasionally sleeps when I kick her off the bed.” The cat never sleeps in that box, but tossing it was crossing the line.

Where am I going with this? Let’s just say that I might be too quick to throw things away, while Addison is reluctant to let anything go. I’ve seen too many episodes of Hoarders to think that this behavior is healthy, but maybe it’s better to compromise instead of picking this particular hill to die on. We will make another sweep through with a donation box before another double wave of gifts washes ashore at the end of the month. A couple years ago, her idea was just to “buy a bigger house.” It makes me chuckle (and shudder) to think back at the look of concern my wife and I shared with one another when she suggested that.

In fantasy football, and DFS, it’s a double-edged sword. If you cast away positive notions about a player too soon, you might miss o