SB54 – B-E-T-S! BETS! BETS! BETS! — Nimble w/Numbers

Nimble w/Numbers Vol.1 Issue 13 1/31/2020 In the immortal words of Al Pacino’s famous character Michael Corleone in the Godfather III, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!” I’m talking of course about Super Bowl sports betting! And before you @ me, I am not alone. This year hopeful prognosticators […]

SB54 – B-E-T-S! BETS! BETS! BETS! — Nimble w/Numbers

SB54 – B-E-T-S! BETS! BETS! BETS!


Photo credit: For the Win – USA Today

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 13 

1/31/2020

In the immortal words of Al Pacino’s famous character Michael Corleone in the Godfather III, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!” I’m talking of course about Super Bowl sports betting! And before you @ me, I am not alone. This year hopeful prognosticators are expected to plop down over $6.8 billion in Super Bowl wagers in the U.S. alone. If that number sounds astronomical, it’s because that number really is astronomical. We’re talking Neil deGrasse Tyson fist pumping in his home made anti-gravity chamber astronomical levels here. But what does that crazy number translate to in real life? Imagine if all 330 million American adults each placed a $20 bet on the game or every person on the planet decided to Venmo you $0.90. While your Venmo crashes, let me remind you that there is a hell of a lot of money up for grabs on Super Sunday and I for one want in on the action! Below you will find a range of betting options to tickle your big game wagering fancy. All of the lines and odds are from the William Hill Sportbook.

Player Props

Pat Mahomes

Photo Credit: Washington Times

Andy Reid is going to put the ball and the game in the hands of his MVP QB Patrick Mahomes! I would not be surprised if Mahomes drops back to pass between 40-45 times on Sunday. This means taking the over in most of his props.

  • Total Passing Attempts – Over 37.0 -110
  • Total Passing Touchdowns – Over 2.5 +105
  • Total Rushing Attempts – Over 5.5 -110
  • Total Interceptions- Over 0.5 +120
  • Total Passing Completions – Over 24.5 -110
  • MVP -120

George Kittle

Photo Credit: ABC7 News

George Kittle is one of my top 5 favorite players to watch and an all around absolute animal! With that being said, his pass catching skills have not been featured heavily in the run dominated scheme that got the 49ers to the Super Bowl. I think that he finds the end zone, but victory for the 49ers will come on the ground, not through the air.

  • Total Receiving Yards – Under 73.5 -110
  • Total Receptions – Under 6.5 -130
  • Will George Kittle Score A Touchdown – Yes +140
  • Score the 1st TD +1000

Mecole Hardman

Photo Credit: Mecole Hardman @MecoleHardman4

Let me start by saying that I love Mecole in SB54! I love the potential CB match-ups he will be facing, his blazing 4.33 40 speed and his big play ability to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. His prop bets are enticing!

  • Yards Of Longest Kickoff Return – Over 28.5 -110
  • Yards Of Longest Punt Return – Over 8.5 -110
  • Total Receiving Yards – Over 20.5 -110
  • Total Receptions – Over 1.5 +120

Deebo Samuel

The college RB turned NFL WR is electric in space and if Kyle Shanahan can get him enough touches, we can all make some money come Sunday!

  • Total Rushing Attempts – Over 0.5 -250
  • Total Reception – Over 3.5 -140
  • Total Rushing Yards – Over 13.5 -110
  • Will Deebo Samuel Score A Touchdown – Yes +165

Best Bets

  • Chiefs -1 -110
  • Under 54.5 -110
  • 1st Quarter Spread – San Francisco 49ers +0.5 -160
  • Total Players With A Pass Attempt In Game – Over 2.5 +120
  • Total Sacks In Game – Over 4.5 -120

Long Shots = Pay Day MVP Long Shot Odds

  • George Kittle +1500
  • Deebo Samuel +1800
  • Travis Kelce +1800
  • Tyreek Hill +1800
  • Mecole Hardman +7500

It’s All Fun and Games

  • Coin Toss – Head/Tails (both) +105
  • Result Of First Coach’s Challenge – Upheld/Overturned (both) -110
  • Will A Drive Start At The 5 Yard Line or Less – Yes -120
  • Will Either Team Use All 6 Timeouts In Regulation Time? – Yes +175
  • Three Unanswered Scores In Game? – No +165

May the sports betting gods be with us all! 

Scott Simpson

Let Them Eat Chalk!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 12 

12/28/2019

Let me be up front. I love Christian McCaffery! He is the best fantasy football player not named Lamar Jackson. He is 33 points away from breaking the all-time single-season fantasy points record, which currently stands at 481.1 points by LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. His name has been bantered about, though less frequently of late, in the MVP discussion. Don’t get me wrong, all the the CMC love is definitely warranted. But how does that translate to your DFS lineups in week 17? He is going to be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. I even heard one FF analyst (Scott Barrett) say that you should have 100% CMC in your DFS week 17 lineups. I understand eating the chalk, but at $11,000 I feel that there is more value to be had at RB and say, let them eat chalk, while we look for value at RB and WR to offset the heavy CMC ownership. Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones and Miles Sanders are all mid-priced RBs with favorable match-ups who have the potential to find the endzone and eclipse the 20 point mark. Cramming CMC into your lineup also makes it harder to jam in stud WRs. AJ Brown and Julio Jones only trail Michael Thomas (25.1) over the last three weeks, averaging 22.4 and 20.9 PPG respectively. Dallas Goedert is the new Zack Ertz without a Dallas Goedert around to steal targets, because he is Dallas Goedert.

Photo Credit: USA Today

This week I entered 180 DFS contests. I am sure that I will make slight adjustments before kick-off on Sunday, but here are my current player percentages for each position.

I wish you all the best in week 17!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 11 

12/21/2019

We’ve all heard the phrase, “Put your money where you mouth is.” It’s a phrase that originated in the 1930’s as a call to support what you cared about with your money or your time. Makes sense. But given the American bent towards individualism, there’s no surprise that is has since been appropriated by the masses as a friendlier way to tell someone to “put up or shut up.” When you actually break the phrase down, it really has an ingenious way of showcasing the human desire to be both right (ego) and also to win (survive). If you listen hard and long enough on Sunday mornings, you can faintly make out its Tell Tale Heart, capriciously beating within the dystopian Id that is the sports gambling community. If you would indulge me a brief story to help me illustrate my point. A while back my NY Giants loving brother-in-law believed so strongly that that his G-men would beat Ray Lewis and the Ravens in Super Bowl 35 that he was was willing to financially back his blusterous claim. When push came to shove, I challenged his resolve and said, “Why don’t you put your money where your mouth is.” He was powerless to resist the challenge and retorted, “I’ll bet you $20 the Giants win the Super Bowl.” After making the ominous wager, he boasted again, “I would bet anyone!” Having realized that he had not quite learned his lesson, I did what every great brother-in-law would have done and I called a few of my friends into the room to get in on the action as well. In total, he lost $60 that day. LOL! He may have foolishly backed an obvious loser, but he stood by what be believed in and at least he was man enough to put his money where his mouth was.

I say all of this because after spending the last few months listening/watching all the weekly DFS tout sights’ podcasts, I find it a little disingenuous to hear DFS after DFS analyst tell us that they will, “have quite a bit of Saquon today” or “Derrick Henry is all over my lineup” or “Matt Ryan will be one of my top QB/WR stacks.” WTF does that mean? In the end they have covered all their bases, but not truly taken a stand. There is no quantification. What I have come to realize is that I could care less about who an analyst touts on their Youtube channel (while stuffing pizza down their throat) and instead I want to know who actually makes it into their weekly DFS lineups. Don’t tell me that you are “going to be getting a shit ton of Julio today”, I want to see your receipts! What are your player percentages? Show me the percentages!!!!

After reflecting on my own process, I have decided to write my weekly DFS article after I have entered all of my DFS line-ups. Now, I will be able to accurately track who I am playing each week and more importantly, put my money where my mouth is with my DFS advice. Here are my player percentages for both the Saturday and Sunday main slates. My receipts.

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Russell
Wilson
$8,300
Drew
Brees
$8,200
Matt
Ryan
$7,700
Phillip
Rivers
$7,500


WR
Tyler
Lockett
$7,600

DK
Metcalf
$6,300
Michael
Thomas
$9,000

*Jared
Cook
$6,600
Julio
Jones
$8,000

*Austin
Hooper
$6,000
Keenan
Allen
$6,800

Mike
Williams
$6,500
*QB/TE Stack

High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 

QBLamar
Jackson
$9,300
Kyler
Murray
$7,700

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$10,800
Saquon
Barkley
$8,800
Zeke
Elliot
$8,700
Chris
Carson
$8,200

WR
Michael
Thomas
$9,000
Julio
Jones
$8,000
Amari
Cooper
$7,700
AJ
Brown
$7,200

TE
Zach
Ertz
$6,900
Jared
Cook
$6,600
Mark
Andrews
$6,500
Darren
Waller
$6,500

DST
Pittsburgh
Steelers
$4,900
Baltimore
Ravens
$4,500



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


RB
Alvin
Kamara
$7,200
Kenyan
Drake
$7,100
Austin
Ekeler
$6,800
Adrian
Peterson
$6,500
RBDevonta
Freeman
$6,200
Kareem
Hunt
$6,100
DeAndre
Washington
$5,600
Latavius
Murray
$5,500

WR
DeVante
Parker
$6,900
Keenan
Allen
$6,700
Zach
Pascal
$6,600
DJ
Moore
$6,600
WRMichael
Gallop
$6,500
Terry
McLaurin
$6,500
DK
Metcalf
$6,300
Tyler
Boyd
$6,300

TE
Austin
Hooper
$6,000
Noah
Fant
$5,900
Jacob
Hollister
$5,700
Greg
Olsen
$4,900
DSTNO
Saints
$3,800
Dallas
Cowboys
$3,600

I wish you all the best in week 16!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

RIP: Fantasy Football

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 10 

12/13/2019

Fantasy football is not dead. But it might feel that way for some of us as we mourn the loss of our fantasy football teams. I cried (on the inside, like a real man) after my fantasy football team “I’m at Full Chubb”, may it RIP, was eliminated 168.95 to 167.5 on Monday night. My team was stacked with Drew Brees, Nick Chubb, Chris Carson, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews. This genius left both Drew Brees (54.7) and Ryan Tannehill (41.1) on his bench and played Carson Wentz (29.4). This was just the latest heartbreak in a sad 15 year fantasy football career of near misses and never has been championships. While I was openly grieving and lamenting on Tuesday morning, my wife hit me with, “It’s enough to make you quit.” I retorted, “What did you say?” in my best Will Ferrell Anchorman voice. Followed by, “I will never quit! I want to win dammit!!” Cooler heads have prevailed and thankfully this years’ story hasn’t been fully written yet since I still have one more bullet in the re-draft chamber. I’ll fill you in next week and let you know if I am playing for $1400 or for $200. God help me if it’s not for $1400!

Great news for both of us is that fantasy football does not have to be over!! We can get right back on the horse and fire up some daily fantasy football (DFS) to help ease the pain of our loss. Hell, I’m getting the band back together this week and I am picking my re-draft team in DFS. You should too. Or maybe you are out for blood. Got knocked out in the first round by McCaffery, saddle up and ride him to DFS glory in some weirdo DFS style revenge fantasy. No more Patrick Laird after your team got eliminated. DFS is all Patrick Laird, all the time! The beauty of DFS is that you can be any team you want to be. 4 out of 5 (80%) fantasy football analysts recommended it to therapeutically treat “Fantasy Football Derangement Disorder” more commonly known as FFDD, which often occurs in the weeks, and for some months, after the fantasy football season has ended. Signs of this ever increasing disorder include stalking mock drafting lobbies, angry Tweeting the fantasy analyst blaming them for making you start Russell Wilson and muttering “JuJu fucking Smith Schuster” repeatedly under your breath at work. There is hope for you in DFS. Come and wash off your sorrow and be reborn into a whole new fantasy szn.

Winners!

I splurged in week 14 and played in the 1.65M GPP as well as my weekly smaller GPP tournament. Analyzing these winning lineups, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal lineup for week 15.

Winning lineup for Week 14 Fanduel $1.65M Sun NFL Dive ($9 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 14 Fanduel $125K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($1 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Michael Thomas & AJ Brown stacked with their respective QBs netted 65.5 and 59.64 . It is hard to win without picking the top stacks of the week.
  • Each had one of the two top RBs with Austin Ekeler at 29.3 and Aaron Jones at 28.2. They also selected strong mid-value RBs in Freeman, Henry and Gordon who didn’t sink their chances.
  • Game stack shootouts! The Emmanuel Sanders/Michael Thomas game stack was good for 55.5. We all saw that one coming.
  • The $300,000 winner leveraged cheaper WRs in Pascal ($6,100) and Terry McLaurin ($5,600) who ended up both finding the endzone.
  • Pittsburgh DEF (4.2x) continues do deliver fantasy value each week.

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Deshaun
Watson
$8,200
Jared
Goff
$7,800
Baker
Mayfield
$7,800
Baker
Mayfield
$7,700


WR
DeAndre
Hopkins
$8,600
Cooper
Kupp
$7,600

Robert
Woods
$7,500
Amari
Cooper
$7,700

Michael
Gallop
$6,800
Jarvis
Landry
$7,400

Odell
Beckham
$7,200

High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


RB
Dalvin
Cook
$8,500
Leonard
Fournette
$7,700
Todd
Gurley
$7,600
Raheem
Mostert
$7,500

WR
DeAndre
Hopkins
$8,600
Kenny
Golladay
$7,900
Julian
Edelman
$7,700
Julio
Jones
$7,500

TE
Travis
Kelce
$7,300
George
Kittle
$7,200
Zach
Ertz
$6,700
Darren
Waller
$6,200

DST
New
England
$5,000
San
Francisco
$4,500



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Ryan
Tannehill
$7,600
Tom
Brady
$7,600
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$7,300
Eli
Manning
$6,800

RB
Kareem
Hunt
$6,700
Joe
Mixon
$6,700
Phillip
Lindsay
$6,400
Kenyan
Drake
$6,200
RBMatt
Breida
$5,600
Duke
Johnson
$5,600
Patrick
Laird
$5,500
Chris
Thompson
$5,200

WR
Emmanuel
Sanders
$6,900
DeVante
Parker
$6,900
DJ
Moore
$6,800
Keenan
Allen
$6,800
WR Michael
Gallop
$6,800
Deebo
Samuel
6,500
DK
Metcalf
$6,300
Darius
Slayton
$6,300

WR
Terry
McLaurin
$6,000
Mecole
Hardman
$5,600
Danny
Amendola
$5,400
Chris
Conley
$5,100

TE
Noah
Fant
$5,700
Tyler
Higbee
$5,700
Dallas
Goedert
$5,700
Ian
Thomas
$5,300
DSTKansas
City
$3,900
Chicago
Bears
$3,800

Weekly Best Lineup –  RB/WR Balanced

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBBaker Mayfield$7,700
RBLeonard Fournette$7,700
RBTodd Gurley$7,600
WRDeAndre Hopkins$8,600
WRJarvis Landry$7,400
WRChris Conley$5,100
TEZach Ertz$6,700
FLXPatrick Laird$5,500
DEFLA Rams$3,600

Weekly Best Lineup – RB Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBEli Manning $6,800
RBDalvin Cook$8,500
RBLeonard Fournette$7,700
WRSterling Sheppard$5,900
WRKenny Golladay$7,900
WRTerry McLaurin$6,000
TEZach Ertz$6,700
FLXPatrick Laird$5,500
DEFNew England$5,000

I wish you all the best in week 15!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Show Me the Money!!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 9 

12/7/2019

Show me the money! Fantasy football is the best form of sports entertainment. Full Stop. Over the last 20 years fantasy football has grown into a billion dollar industry with around 60 million people participating in 2019. There are lots of compelling reasons people are playing fantasy football, but why the sudden explosion in popularity? I know that in my home re-draft league, the draft night spectacle is wild and well worth the price of admission. But it has to be more than bros loving football and getting together to bro out and talk copious amounts of trash while slamming beers and while trying to figure out why Sammy Watkins went in the third round. In reality billions of dollars are wagered/gambled each year on fantasy football. Cash is king. And until recently, I thought that most fantasy football participants all agreed that the ultimate purpose for playing fantasy football was to cash. That’s why I was shocked when I came across a poll that Jeff Ratcliffe from ProFootballFocus (PFF) conducted on whether or not you should pick players up off the wavier wire after you have been eliminated from the playoffs. 44% of the over 5,000 people who voted, indicated that they think “you should keep playing” even if you do not make the playoffs. It was stunning to me that such a large percentage of the fantasy football community clearly doesn’t that the losers in your fantasy league shouldn’t take precedence over the winners.

Why would people who have nothing to play for keep picking up players even after they have been eliminated from cashing? My own core belief on this issue is that once the playoffs have started and you are eliminated from contention, no longer having the opportunity to win cash, you should under no circumstances ever pick up a player off of the waiver wire. (If you play in a no money league. First, WTF? And second, this doesn’t apply to you). Firmly entrenched in my beliefs, I bravely dropped into the comments on Jeff’s thread and mixed it up with the 44% to try to find out where they had lost their way.

  • Draft Picks are on the line – I sucked all year and now I want to be rewarded
  • Avoid the Toilet Bowl punishment – I don’t want to wear a dress at Arby’s!
  • The Consolidation bracket made me do it – I can’t think for myself
  • I paid for this dammit! – Me > People who can actually win money
  • Over my dead body! – I cannot let anyone win because I am insecure.

I realize that lots of leagues incentivize continued participation once the playoffs start by tying draft picks to where you finish in the consolidation ladder or forcing the last place finisher in the league to some outrageous form of humiliation. Both of these ideas makes sense on the surface. Keep people involved in the league. Make the draft order interesting. Got it. But explain to me why it should trump (Sorry, I hate even correctly using that word now.) my ability to win cash. Your little last place tournament isn’t the reason we are here. It’s like going to a basketball court. Getting a team together. Waiting your turn. Getting on the court. Losing a game. And then teaming up with the team that lost the first game and kicking the winners off the court so that you losers can run a game. You lost. Take your ball and go home and then open up your computer or phone and play DFS.

Still others argue the old tried and true, if someone built the bridge, we have to walk on it fallacy. When did we lose the plot and decide that since ESPN and Yahoo have a consolidation bracket, it is mandatory everyone participate in it? I’m guessing that Jake is the kind of guy that never fails to fills out and mail in the warranty card for his electric toothbrush. Oh it is simple Jake. You can simply disregard the consolidation ladder because it isn’t required to win the championship.

And of course, there is the most American argument of them all. ME! It is all about me and my fun. I will be playing every single week and actively trying to disrupt people who actually can win money. Oh, its a dick move alright. Imagine people thinking that a game that they are eliminated from should somehow be negatively impacted by them. This is just gross. This guy would be kicked out of my league immediately. I respect the guys I play with in my home league too much to purposefully try to take food out of their mouths. If you play fantasy football to be a dick to your friends and family, your definitely helping me prove my point.

My decent into madness (Jeff’s Twitter thread) did not deter me. All of the reasons people provided made some sense. They weren’t outrageous, they just were short sighted and individualistic. They elevate participants who have lost the chance to win cash and placed them on par with those who still have skin in the game. This is where all of their arguments fall apart. Not all fantasy teams are created equally, and those that cannot compete for a championship shouldn’t hinder those who can once they have been eliminated. Here is my suggestion to all the good fantasy football participants who did not make the playoffs: Play DFS.

Winners!

Now let’s take a look at some of the DFS winners who took down some of the smaller GPP tournaments. Analyzing these winning lineups, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal lineup for week 14.

Winning lineup for Week 13 Fanduel $125K Sun NFL Dive ($1 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 13 Fanduel $50K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Both lineups featured a low priced QB/WR stack from a high scoring game.
  • Identify High Scoring Games! The winners featured a combined total of 9 Dolphins/Eagles players on their rosters. That was 50% of their rosters.
  • Miles Sanders was a stone cold steal last week priced at only $5,800.
  • The WR combo of Davante Adams and DeVante Parker netted 52.8 fantasy points.
  • Tyler Higbee played the pass funnel 32nd ranked Arizona Cardinals defense and went for 7 rec, for 107 yards and 1 TD.
  • Silver lining: Both winners swung and missed (Chubb – 8.4 and Agholor 7.6) and were still able to bring home the victory.
  • Cheap DEFs are still back! Bucs DEF scored 23 points for a 6.1x value and the Chiefs scored 22 points and had a value of 5.2x.

DFS Resources

Each week I peel back the current and share part of my process for constructing my DFS lineups. This week I am sharing the outstanding work of Jeff Ratcliffe and the great team at ProFootballFocus. Jeff’s weekly fantasy focus article contains insights and analysis that helps me identify key players to build my core lineup around. I highly recommend you add Jeff to your weekly DFS process as well!

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100
Sam
Darnold
$7,700
Baker
Mayfield
$7,600
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$7,400


WR
Davante
Adams
$8,000

Allen
Lazard
$5,600
Robby
Anderson
$6,400

Jamison
Crowder
$6,000
Jarvis
Landry
$7,300

Odell
Beckham
$7,800
DeVante
Parker
$7,200 

*Mike
Gesicki
$5,400

*QB/TE Stack

High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 

QBLamar
Jackson
$9,000
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100
Sam
Darnold
$7,700
Jameis
Winston
$7,700

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$11,000
Derrick
Henry
$9,100
Aaron
Jones
$7,800
Melvin
Gordon
$7,300

WR
Michael
Thomas
$8,000
Davante
Adams
$8,000
Chris
Godwin
$7,900
Kenny
Golladay
$7,400

TE
Austin
Hooper
$6,600
Mark
Andrews
$6,600
Jack
Doyle
$6,300
Darren
Waller
$6,200

DST
Green Bay
Packers
$5,000
Houston
Texans
$4,700



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Ryan
Tannehill
$7,300
Kyle
Allen
$7,100
Andy
Dalton
$7,000

RB
James
White
$6,000
Jamaal
Williams
$5,600
Patrick
Laird
$5,500
RBAlexander
Mattison
$5,100
Darwin
Thompson
$5,100
Bilal
Powell
$4,900

WR
D.J.
Moore
$7,100
Calvin
Ridley
$6,900
Keenan
Allen
$6,800

WR
James
Washington
$6,700
Tyler
Boyd
6,300
Zach
Pascal
$6,100

TE
Vance
McDonald
$5,800
Ryan
Griffin
$5,600 
Kyle
Rudolph
$4,800 
DSTSan
Francisco
$3,800
Tampa
Bay
$3,800

Weekly Best Lineup – WR Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBAaron Rodger$8,640
RBKareem Hunt$6,400
RBDerrick Henry$9,100
WRCalvin Ridley$6,900
WRDavante Adams$8,400
WRDeVante Parker$7,200
TEKyle Rudolph$4,800
FLXBilal Powell$4,900
DEFNO Saints$3,800

Weekly Best Lineup – RB Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBSam Darnold$7,700
RBChristian McCaffery$11,000
RBDerrick Henry$9,100
WRRobby Anderson$6,400
WRDeVante Parker$7,200
WR Diontae Johnson $5,100
TEKyle Rudolph$4,800
FLXBilal Powell$4,900
DEFSan Francisco 49ers$3,800

I wish you all the best in week 14!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the outstanding work that Jeff Ratcliffe does over at ProFootballFocus!

Jeff Ratcliffe
@JeffRatcliffe
Fantasy football for @PFF
| Husband & dad | Rankings | DFS | Player prop bets | winning @SiriusXM host | TV on @CBSSportsNet
| Wu-Tang | IG: jeffratcliffePhilly
jeffratcliffe.com

Part 2: This is a Robbery!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 8 

11/30/2019

Heat is one of my favorite movies. During the dramatic bank robbery scene, there is a pivotal moment when De Niro and his team exit the bank. Brandishing automatic weapons and carrying millions of dollars in huge black duffel bags, they head towards their getaway car. The camera cuts to Al Pacnio and his LAPD Major Crimes Unit Team, who unbeknownst to the robbers, have descended on the bank in order to thwart the attempted robbery. De Niro and Tom Sizemore make it to the car and just as Val Kilmer exits the bank, money in hand, he allows a wry, smugly satisfied smile to briefly flash across his face. This portends to disaster though, he has celebrated too soon, and a split second later all hell breaks lose on the streets of LA. It is cinematic perfection.

My own personal “Heat” moment happened last Sunday. After smugly boasting of taking down a casino, my team and I were flat out robbed by the Washington football team (who of course won the game against the Lions outright). SMH. Since the Lions were the play of the day, we infused the match-up into all of our teasers and parlays. Just like our heroes in Heat, who thought they planned the perfect robbery, our bankrolls never stood a chance to make it out alive. There was so much bitterness when the Lions gave up the game winning field goal. Betting tickets were being ripped up and discarded left and right and once again the Washington football team was resoundingly cursed. We were all big losers. Everyone, except for Chuck that is. Who is Chuck you ask? I don’t know! None of us had ever met the guy. He just showed up as a friend of a friend and then took down a super parlay and won $2,000. He had cashed in his winning ticket and split by 4:10 p.m. leaving us all embittered and a bit shell shocked. To a man we all agreed. We had been robbed!! Oh and F Chuck!

Winners!

We are turning it around this week! Now let’s take a look at some of the DFS winners who took down some of the smaller GPP tournaments. Analyzing these winning lineups, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal lineup for week 13.

Winning lineup for Week 12 Fanduel $15K Sun NFL Dive ($0.05 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 12 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Both lineups featured a low priced QB/WR stack. Good reminder that you can find cheap value at QB and breaking the bank for Lamar Jackson isn’t always a recipe for success in GPP tournaments.
  • One team had 4 Browns. I’ll give you a minute to process. Jarvis Landry has been fire the last 4 weeks with 29 receptions for 339 yards and 5 TDs.
  • The RB stack in the JAC vs TEN game paid off in a big way with Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette combining for over 60 points.
  • Didn’t you get the message that it was Chris Godwin szn last week?
  • Ertz was the only TE who actually saw game action last week. I kid (only 4 TE scored over 10 points on the main slate on Sunday).
  • Cheap DSTs are back! Washington had an ungodly 7.0x value last week.

Podcasts

Listening to podcasts is pretty much a life requirement for anyone living in 2019. I’m sure that you wouldn’t be surprised to learn that each week I listen to select DFS Podcasts as part of my preparation for building my lineups. One of my favorites is the Rotobahn Podcast featuring Pete Davidson. Check out his outstanding work at Rotobahn and make sure to listen to his weekly DFS Podcast for player insights and match-up analysis.

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Patrick
Mahomes
$8,600
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100
Jared
Goff
$7,900
Nick
Foles
$7,500


WR
Tyreek
Hill
$8,400

Sammy
Watkins
$6,100
Davante
Adams
$8,000

*Aaron
Jones
$8,000
Cooper
Kupp
$7,800

Robert
Woods
$7,800
D.J.
Chark
$6,900 

Dede
Westbrook
$6,900

*QB/RB Stack

High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 

QBLamar
Jackson
$8,700
Patrick
Mahomes
$8,600
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$11,000
Aaron
Jones
$8,000
Josh
Jacobs
$7,700
Le’veon
Bell
$7,300

WR
Davante
Adams
$8,000
Cooper
Kupp
$7,800
Jarvis
Landry
$7,400
D.J.
Moore
$6,800

TE
Travis
Kelce
$7,100
George
Kittle
$7,000
Darren
Waller
$6,100
Ryan
Griffin
$5,600

DST
Philadelphia
Eagles
$5,000
Carolina
Panther
$4,700



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Sam
Darnold
$7,600
Nick
Foles
$7,500
Carson
Wentz
$7,000 

RB
Kenyan
Drake
$6,400
Phillip
Lindsay
$6,300
Ronald
Jones
$6,200
RBMiles
Sanders
$5,800
Darrel
Williams
$5,400
Chase
Edmonds
$5,000

WR
Alshon
Jeffery
$6,500
Emmanuel
Sanders
$6,400
Jamison
Crowder
$6,300

WR
Sammy
Watkins
$6,100
Christian
Kirk
6,100
DeVante
Parker
$6,000

TE
Tyler
Higbee
$5,500
Dallas
Goedert
$5,200 
Jack
Doyle
$5,000 
DSTLA
Chargers
$3,900
Pittsburgh
Steelers
$3,700

Weekly Best LineupWR/TE Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBPatrick Mahomes $8,600
RBRonald Jones$6,200
RBMiles Sanders$5,800
WRTyreek Hill$8,400
WRDavante Adams$8,000
WRDeVante Parker$6,000
TETravis Kelce$7,100
FLXDarren Waller$6,100
DSTLA Chargers$3,900

Weekly Best LineupRB Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBKyle Allen $7,200
RBChristian McCaffery $11,000
RBLeonard Fournette $7,600
WRAlshon Jeffery$6,500
WRD.J. Chark $6,900
WRD.J. Moore$6,800
TEJack Doyle$5,000
FLXChase Edmonds$5,000
DSTBaltimore Ravens$4,000

I wish you all the best in week 13!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the outstanding work that Pete Davidson does over at Rotobahn!

Pete Davidson
@Rotobahn
http://Rotobahn.com is my baby. Fantasy Football writer and broadcaster for @WEEI. Unwilling sufferer of fools and lover of logic.

The Turkey Bowl!!

Subtitle: The Hit Machine

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 7

11/26/2019

This year I am thankful for the Turkey Bowl! For those who don’t know, the Turkey Bowl is a yearly spectacle that showcases the long since shattered dreams of grown adult men, who are still grasping at the glory of their football youth. As turkeys are getting stuffed, men all around the country are amassing in public parks, open fields and in big back yards to play football. The game is tackle, with full offensive and defensive lines, 1 point for TD, no field goals (we were crazy enough to implement full kick-offs the first few years) and there are no ties. There will be blood. A few concussions for sure. You cannot walk for the next few days. It’s football at its purest. It’s as American as pumpkin pie.

If you won’t mind letting me wax poetic, my illustrious Turkey Bowl career lasted from 1998-2005. I was a master play-caller and regularly brought index cards with hand-drawn plays into the huddle. It was like I invented the wheel route (thank you Madden 2000). But I wasn’t all brains back then. I lettered in varsity high school football (impressive I know) and was always down for a tussle on the gridiron. During one Thanksgiving game, I made a seminary student say what was probably his first official curse word in frustration. He bellowed, “What the hell” as muscled I him over onto his back to sack the QB. Most of the guys I played against over the years didn’t know how insecure and full of anger I was, which means they never stood a chance. I was a defensive monster and I liked it rough. I wasn’t going to chase anyone down, but if we met in the hole, you were going to become part of my Turkey Bowl highlight tape. My best hit ever was against an Italian Rugby player named Andre who was built like a tank. With me as his lead blocker one year, he beasted out and scored 3 touchdowns. Defenders were bouncing off him like he was Bo Jackson in Tecmo Super Bowl. He was unstoppable and I was a little jealous this newcomer was stealing a bit of my Turkey Bowl shine. I had played high school football dammit! The following year I made sure that we were not on the same team. One of the first plays from scrimmage, Andre took the hand-off and cut inside the B gap. I was playing middle linebacker, so I could get a running start. I had waited a year for this! Adrenaline surging, I shot into the hole and completely obliterated a 240 lbs statue of a man, while of course yelling out a primeval scream that attracted no attention whatsoever. The best of times!!

Ironically, Andre moved to Australia, played in a competitive American football league and nicknamed himself the “Hit Machine.” I like to think that each time he laced them up Downunder, he just couldn’t shake the image of me standing over him that fantastic Turkey Bowl morning, and deep down inside, he knew who the real “Hit Machine” was.

Andre

Sadly, my Turkey Bowl glory days are behind me now. I hung up the cleats and threw away the mouthpiece years ago. I’ve been married to a beautiful lady for 14 years, have two amazing daughters in elementary school, and my hands have grown soft from typing all day long. But, I will never forget my past Turkey Bowl triumphs and I won’t let Andre either.

Now onto business. I am so thankful that there are three NFL games on Thanksgiving so that I can get my DFS on! Here is a special Thanksgiving edition of Weekly Best Lineup to wet your beak before we get to Sunday’s main slate.

Weekly Best Lineup

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBDrew Brees$8,500
RBDevin Singletary$6,600
RBDavid Montgomery$5,900
WRMichael Thomas$9,200
WRJulio Jones$7,800
WRJohn Brown$6,600
TEJared Cook$6,700
FLXLogan Thomas$4,700
DSTBills$4,000

I decided to stack Brees and Thomas, which limited my RB selections to lower-priced rookies. Hoping that they both lives up to their 3rd round potential after being drafted this past spring with back-to-back picks. I like going top-heavy with Julio Jones, John Brown and Jared Cook who all have the potential to haul in a TD. My flex and defense were what was left when you stack the most expensive two players combined.

Hopefully, you all have a great Thanksgiving celebrating with your loved ones. My in-laws don’t believe in TVs or football and naturally, they will be joining us for Thanksgiving this year. So think of me while you are stuffing your faces with turkey and mashed potatoes and are thoroughly enjoying your holiday GPPs and cash games. I’ll be getting caught up on all the latest Boomer news that I didn’t know I missed. So glad I’m sober. They’ll be so much to digest.

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

P.S. “This is a Robbery” will be updated and addressed in the next issue. Let’s just say that it was a blood bath!!

This is a Robbery!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 6 

11/23/2019

I’m not sure if “legally” I should be saying this, but hell here goes. I mean, it’s just the Internet. No one really gets in trouble for anything that happens here. It’s all fantasy. Don’t tell me you have no idea what the “F” in “DFS” stands for. Well, this weekend (checks to make sure the wife isn’t coming down the basement stairs) sh*ts getting real. I’m Mr. Green and I am going to commit a robbery. The boys and I’ve been planning this job all week. The team has been assembled, we’ve cased the joint and gone over the plan a million times. Everyone knows their role. In and out. Real quick. No mistakes and if we pull it off, we all walk away with piles of cash and then fade into obscurity like Kesyer Soze. Without a trace. It’s full proof.

My best friend turns 40 today and tomorrow we are celebrating by invading our local casino and sportsbook for a day of teasers, fat stacks, river cards, steaks, parlays, winners, losers and robberies! Here’s the plan. It’s pretty simple. The Lions are a measly -3.5. against the expansion Washington football team and they are by far the worst franchise and team in the NFL. The whole crew is betting the Lions and legally steal money from the sportsbook. Sorry to disappoint those thinking that I was breaking bad so early in my DFS writing career. Make sure to follow along at @NimblewNumbers on Twitter for all the action!

Winners!

Speaking of a robbery, let’s take a look at some of the DFS winners who took home all our cash last week. Analyzing this winning line-up, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal line-up for week 12.

Winning lineup for Week 11 Fanduel $130K Sun NFL Dive ($1 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 11 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • In an upset, there no QB/WR stack for the winners. I did notice the the winners featured a QB/RB stack and a QB/RB/TE stack, but I’m not sure this correlates with their victories. If you stacked Josh Allen and John Brown, you did it right in week 11.
  • If I have to tell you to pay up front for CMC, you are doing DFS wrong. (I’m just going to keep leaving this bullet in, until he doesn’t score 20+ a week.)
  • John Brown and Michael Thomas are the only 2 WRs to have over 50 receiving yards in every game this season. John Brown and Michael Thomas.
  • Calvin Ridley was featured in both winning lineups and also in my Low cost/high value plays for week 10.
  • The best low cost, high value plays of week 11 includes the aforementioned, John Brown ($5,900), who returned a value of 5.1x . Josh Allen ($7,800) returned 4.3x the value. Ryan Griffin ($6,300) led the way for for TEs with 19.4 fantasy points and a value 4.0x.

NFL Week 12 Primer

Mike Tagliere and Bobby Sylvester create some of the best fantasy football content available in the FF community. If you don’t have the FantasyPros Chrome plug-in installed on your browser, are you even really playing fantasy football? Today I want to highlight the incredible FantasyPros Week 12 Primer. It is an indispensable tool that I use each week to help construct my DFS player pool and build my lineups. Read it each week and your fantasy football team will thank me later (but mostly Mike and Bobby).

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Russell
Wilson
$8,200
Matt
Ryan
$7,900
Jameis
Winston
$7,600
Baker
Mayfield
$7,500


WR
Tyler
Lockett
$7,400

DK
Metcalf
$6,700
Julio
Jones
$8,400

Calvin
Ridley
$6,700
Mike
Evans
$8,000

Chris
Godwin
$7,800
Odel
Beckham
$7,000 

Jarvis
Landry
$6,900

High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


RB
Christian
McCaffery
$10,500
Derrick
Henry
$8,400
Alvin
Kamara
$8,300
Nick
Chubb
$8,200

WR
Michael
Thomas
$9,200
Julio
Jones
$8,400
Mike
Evans
$8,000
Julian
Edelman 
$7,500

TE
Darren
Waller
$6,200
Zach
Ertz
$6,100

DST
Detroit
Lions
$5,000
Pittsburg
Steelers
$5,000



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Sam
Darnold
$7,400
Derek
Carr
$7,400
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$7,200 

RB
Bo
Scarbrough
$6,700
Phillip
Lindsay
$6,300
Patrick
Laird
$4,900

WR
Jamison
Crowder
$6,500
D.J.
Moore
$6,400
James
Washington
$6,100

WR
Taylor
Gabriel
$5,600
Russell
Gage
$5,300
Cole
Beasley
$5,300

TE
Ryan
Griffin
$5,400
Ben
Watson
$5,300
Dallas
Goedert
$5,200 
DSTDallas
$3,200

Weekly Best Lineup

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBMatt Ryan$7,900
RBChristian McCaffery$10,500
RBAlvin Kamara$8,300
WRCalvin Ridley$6,700
WRJarvis Landry$7,800
WRTaylor Gabriel$5,600
TEBen Watson$5,600
FLXMiles Sanders$5,600
DSTDallas Cowboys$3,200

I wish you all the best in week 12!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the outstanding work that Mike Tagliere and Bobby Sylvester do at FantasyPros.

Mike Tagliere
@MikeTagliereNFL
Lead NFL Writer/Analyst for @FantasyPros
Co-host on the FantasyPros football podcast. Top-6 ranker twice in
@Fantasypros accuracy contest. Aspiring novelist.
fantasypros.com/author/mike-ta…
Bobby Sylvester
@bobbyfantasypro
Podcast Host & Fantasy Analyst for FantasyPros

St. Louis (Metro East)
podcast.fantasypros.com

Posted byJesse SimpsonNovember 9, 2019Posted inUncategorizedLeave a commenton Establish the StackEditEstablish the StackPosted byJesse SimpsonNovember 16, 2019Posted inUncategorizedTags:DFSFantasy FootballFFFootballNFLWinnersLeave a commenton OMG! Look at that Ratio!EditOMG! Look at that Ratio!

OMG! Look at that Ratio!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 5 

11/16/2019

85. That is the number of hours that I worked this week. I get paid for 40. That means that I worked for less than half price this week. As the Twitter says, “I got Ratioed!” Don’t feel too bad for me though. As I sit down to write this, my wife just left with the girls for a birthday party. I have four free hours to do what I love, write DFS. (Which, nobody in-particular asked me to do, so there is that.) Pink Floyd is blasting, I’ve built a raging fire to keep me warm, my basement is cleaned, my beer is cold and it’s time to pick winners.

Full transparency, my DFS ratio last week saw me come out on top, up a staggering $0.25. I definitely already blew through the winnings on a Monday night Hail Mary GPP play. Easy come easy go. Winning at DFS, especially max entry GPP tournaments, requires building a strong core group of players to anchor your lineups. Last week my core player pool was too large and not strategically focused enough to support overall success. This week, I am going to streamline the plays and shrink the player pools to include a core group of players who have breakout potential on Sunday. Looking for redemption, armed with what we have learned, we set our sights upon an intriguing set of week 11 NFL match-ups.

My Best Plays of Week 10

Pos Player Points Value 
QBLamar Jackson33.423.9x
RBDerrick Henry32.14.6x
WRChristian Kirk34.86.1x
TETravis Kelce172.5x
DSTBaltimore244.8x

Lamar Jackson was in 25% of my lineups and I am kicking myself for not going 100% Lamar. Live and learn. Lamar is in your lineup against all terrible defenses (see Miami). Derrick Henry got lose and I still don’t think it is fair that a man that big, can run that fast. He is a beast. Christian Kirk scored his first, second, and third TD of the year against the Buc’s defense. Ryan Finley. Why? I’ll tell you why, to score the most points for your DFS team. Big fan of your work Ryan. I’ll be taking a special interest in you again, later in this article.

My Worst Plays of Week 10

Pos Player Points Value 
QBDrew Brees11.481.4x
RBTodd Gurley7.31.0x
WRCooper Kupp4.30.7x
TEMike Gesicki2.30.4x
DSTChiefs51.4x

Raise your hand if you saw Dree Brees being sacked 6 times by Hotlanta’s vaunted defense. Cooper Kupp was 33% owned last week. With 0 fantasy football points scored, there is a chance you were among the handful of the DFS Twitter who reacted like this…

Iky Gesicki. And the Chief’s run defense continues to Jekyll and Hyde. Trust no one.

Winners! Yes Please!

Onto the winners! I am only featuring one winning line-up this week because it was good enough to win multiple Fanduel GPP tournaments. Analyzing his winning line-up, we will deconstruct his roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal line-up for week 11.

Winning lineup for Week 10 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Kyler Murray/Christian Kirk stack was deadly. Imagine doing something like that against the Buc’s defense. Any given Sunday, I guess.
  • If I have to tell you to pay up front for CMC, you are doing DFS wrong. (I’m just going to keep leaving this bullet in, until he doesn’t score 20+ a week.)
  • Derrick Henry carried 23 times for 188 YDS and 2 TDs. GIVE HIM THE DAMN BALL!
  • Tyreek Hill had 11 REC on 19 TGTS for 157 YDS and 1 TD. So many targets.
  • The best low cost, high value plays of week 10 includes the aforementioned, Christian Kirk ($5,700), who returned a value of 6.1x . Darius Slayton ($5,600) returned 5.2x the value. Ronald Jones ($6,300) was a good value play at RB with a value 3.0x.

NFL Week 11 Implied Team Totals 

I use this tool to identify which teams are expected (by Vegas) to score the most points, and then I identify players who are expected to be featured prominently by their teams offense and work them into my lineups.

https://eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/index.html

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Lamar
Jackson
$8,800
Drew
Brees
$8,300
Dak
Prescott
$8,100
Kyle
Allen
$7,200


WR
*Mark
Andrews
$6,900

Hollywood
Brown
$5,600
Michael
Thomas
$8,700

Tre’quan
Smith
$4,900
Amari
Cooper
$8,100

Michael
Gallup
$6,700
Curtis
Samuel
$6,300 

D.J.
Moore
$6,000

*QB/TE stack

High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Lamar
Jackson
$8,800
Drew
Brees
$8,300
Dak
Prescott
$8,100
Jameis
Winston
$7,600

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$10,500
Zeke
Elliott
$8,400
Josh
Jacobs
$8,000
Leonard
Fournette
$7,200

WR
Michael
Thomas
$9,000
Mike
Evans 
$8,200
Chris
Godwin
$8,000
Julio
Jones
$7,800

TE
Mark
Andrews
$6,900
Darren
Waller
$6,700
Jared
Cook
$6,000

DST
49ers
$4,900
Minn
$4,700



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Matt
Ryan
$7,600
Derek
Carr
$7,400
Kyle
Allen
$7,200 

RB
Tevin
Coleman
$6,700
Joe
Mixon
$6,600
Brian
Hill
$5,900

WR
Tyrell
Williams
$6,200
D.J.
Moore
$6,000
Mohamed
Sanu
$5,800

WR
Hunter
Renfrow
$5,700
Calvin
Ridley 
$5,500
Terry
McLaurin 
$5,500

TE
O.J.
Howard
$5,300
Noah
Fant
$5,100
Greg
Olsen
$5,100 
DSTDallas
$4,100

New Feature: This week I introduce my weekly best line-up. This is the line-up that I will be playing in single entry tournaments and all of the smaller GPP tournaments as well.

Weekly Best Lineup

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBJameis Winston$7,600
RBJosh Jacobs$8,000
RBTevin Coleman$6,700
WRMike Evans$8,200
WRJulio Jones$7,800
WRMichael Gallup$6,700
TEO.J. Howard$5,300
FLXMiles Sanders$5,600
DSTDallas Cowboys$4,100

I wish you all the best in week 11!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

This weeks shout out goes to me. I’ve earned it. Check me out at https://twitter.com/NimblewNumbers
Weekly DFS Content – Winners

Posted byJesse SimpsonNovember 9, 2019Posted inUncategorizedLeave a commenton Establish the StackEditEstablish the Stack