Welcome to NFL Week 3! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!
High Priced – Quarterback
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles – $7,600
Jalen Hurts is a beast! He currently is the NFL’s eleventh leading rusher and ranks second in rushing touchdowns with three. He’s also passed for over 550 yards and has a completion percentage of 69%! His RunTheSims.com boom rate is over 66%. The Washington Commanders have historically struggled to contain rushing quarterbacks and their current group of linebackers might be their worst in decades. Jalen Hurts could rush for over 75 yards in this matchup in the first half. I love playing him naked or stacking him with A.J. Brown. He’s currently being rostered at 9%, which is behind only Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – $6,500
Matthew Stafford rebounded in week 2 scoring over 20 points after a disappointing season opener against the Buffalo Bills. The Cardinals on the other hand rank 32nd against quarterbacks, giving up over 26 points per game. They have surrendered 612 passing yards and seven touchdowns, with no interceptions. Stafford has three different stacking options this week. Cooper Kupp is priced up at $9,900, Allen Robinson at $5,700, and Tyler Higbee down at $4,500. Kupp is the Rolls-Royce stack with the most explosive upside. He saw 28 targets in two games last season. I’m comfortable stacking them all but prefer Kupp at the points per dollar value.
Value – Quarterback
Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons – $5,500
Bo McBrayer from FantasyPros loves Marcus Mariota this week in a double stack with Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Marcus Mariota is the 12th highest scoring DraftKings quarterback through 2 weeks with 37 points. At only, $5,500 he’s a tremendous pay-down value who has rushing opportunities with goal-line carry upside. If he can finally connect with Pitts, the stack could pay off in a big way. I’m also completely comfortable running Mariota out naked and paying up at running back or wide receiver this week.
High Priced – Running Back
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals – $7,600
Joe Mixon is averaging 30 opportunities per game through the first two weeks of the season. Mixon is fourth in the NFL with 13 running back targets as well. The Bengals are 0-2 and on the road this week in New York to face the Jets. I can see Zac Taylor using Mixon to control the clock and slow the game down to make sure that the Bangles come out with a victory. I can easily see Mixon rushing for over 100 yards (and the bonus) and scoring a touchdown or two. All while adding 4-5 receptions and 30 yards out of the backfield. Currently, he’s picking up 14% rostership, which is the fourth highest on the slate.
Mid-Range – Running Back
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,500
Leonard Fournette is still the only game in town for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week when they face Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Mike Evans is suspended, Chris Godwin is OUT, they were so desperate they signed Cole Beasley to the practice squad. Leonard Fournette is going to eat in this matchup he underperform last week and has been priced down $200 to $6,500. According to RunTheSims.com Fournette’s boom rate is over 63%. He’s one of the best plays on the board and should see 25 touches again in this matchup. Tom Brady knows the best way to win is to feed Fournette while the rest of his team heals up.
Value – Running Back
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles – $5,500
Miles Sanders is averaging 17.5 opportunities per game. While the Washington Commanders on the other hand have given up 310 total yards and three touchdowns to running backs through the first two games of the season. Travis Etienne dropped a walk-in touchdown and Trevor Lawrence failed to hit him on another potential touchdown, so those numbers are actually pretty light. The Commander’s linebacking corps is barely that. Once Miles Sanders breaks through the line, to the second level he should have the opportunity to turn basic runs into huge plays. I would not be surprised to see him go for a long touchdown in this game over 50 yards. If I’m paying down at running back I’ll take all the Miles Sanders. Yes. Yes. Yes. I can’t believe I’m saying this as well.
High Priced – Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills – $7,700
Stefon Diggs is the number one scoring player in DraftKings through two weeks and he’s price down at $7,700. He’s $2,200 cheaper than Cooper Kupp and he’s scored seven more DraftKings points so far through two weeks. Yes. Time is a flat circle. Adjust the ranks and be thankful that the oddsmakers over at the DraftKings haven’t yet caught on to the fact that Stefon Diggs should be priced at around $8,800 every single week. Diggs is third in the NFL in receptions with 20. He is second in receiving yards with 270, behind only Tyreek Hill. And he has four touchdowns, which leads the league. Stefon Diggs to the f****** Moon!
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,100
Tee Higgins is back! And so are the New York Jets and their sucky secondary. They’ve already given up 239 yards and four touchdowns to wide receivers in the first 2 weeks. Higgins saw 10 targets last week which converted into six catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. At $6,100, he is $2,000 cheaper than Ja’Marr Chase this week. He’s a great value if you’re stacking either Joe Burrow or using him in a runback stack with a Joe Flacco/Jets receiver stack. Higgins and Burrow is my co-host at the fantasy millionaires, Mike “Cash” Collins’s, favorite stack of the week. I personally love running it back with either Elijah Moore or Garrett Wilson in a game you know the Jets are going to have to pass the ball. Bombs away!
Value – Wide Receiver
Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders – $5,100
Curtis Samuel is my value wide receiver for the third straight week. Next week he might be my mid-range wide receiver as he’s been priced up now to $5,100, which is the very edge of the value wide receiver category if I’m being honest. And I’m always being honest with DFS. Samuel is the WR1 on a Washington Commanders offense that already has seven passing touchdowns and has targeted the wide receivers extensively in the passing game. Samuel leads the team in targets with 20, receptions 15, receiving yards 133, and in DraftKings points with 43.1. Washington is a six-point home underdog with a game script ripe for a late touchdown pass to Samuel to push him over the 20-point mark and another 4x.
High Priced – Tight End
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $6,900
This week Mark Andrews is priced at $6,900. Insert “nooice” meme right here. Travis Kelce is $1,000 more expensive at $7,900 when their stat lines are Basically carbon copies of each other. The Ravens are going to need to throw the football in this game against the Patriots. I expect Bill Belichick to try to take away Lamar Jackson’s abilities to roam outside the pocket, making Mark Andrews an even greater threat. I expect him to get upwards of ten Targets in this matchup and should score you between 18 and 20 points. I feel like his floor is safe and you save yourself $1,000.
Mid-Range – Tight End
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – $4,800
Kyle Pitts is priced at $4,800 this week on DraftKings, making him one of the most interesting plays at tight end. Pitts has done nothing, absolutely positively unequivocally nothing so far this year. But we know there’s untapped potential and we also know that eventually Mariota will find him and there will be a touchdown scored and all the Earth Will Rejoice. The question is will it be this week. I think it will be. Seattle has struggled against the tight end. Look what washed Russell Wilson did to them in week one. Now Kyle Pitts has a chance to redeem himself and cash it in for you at a tremendous value. Fingers crossed he catches his first NFL touchdown in America this weekend.
Value – Tight End
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers– $4,400
Gerald Everett has finally recovered from being winded and looking for his mouthguard. Last week was 10 long days ago and I’m not worried about any carryover or hangover between him and Justin Herbert. At $4,400, Everett is a value in this high total game that should see the Los Angeles Chargers score up words of 27 points. I’m comfortable rolling with him at his $4,400 price tag this week only if I’m stacking him with Justin Herbert. I don’t want to play him naked.
Welcome to NFL Week 2! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!
High Priced – Quarterback
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – $7,400
Lamar Jackson is the best play at quarterback this week. He’s currently the sixth most roster quarterback at 7%. I love it and so should you if you would like winning money, and I think most of you do. Unless you’re Bo and you play me head-to-head each week then you lose and you still like it, but I digress. I’m stacking Lamar Jackson with Mark Andrews and running it back with Tyreek Hill this week. This is one of my favorite pay-up stacks of the week. The high price should drive people away and allow you to differentiate your builds.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – $6,300
According to RunTheSims.com, Matthew Stafford is the most rostered quarterback on the DraftKings Main Slate. The Atlanta Falcons defense will do that to you. Last week they propped Jameis Winston up for 21.66 DraftKings points. Stafford is coming off of 10 days rest and should be healthier and more in sync with Allen Robinson this week. Cooper Kupp is $9,900, making Robinson at $5,500 the second most popular play this week. Pay-up or value, Stafford is in play this week and should score 22-24 points. He’s most effective in the stack and should not be played naked. I mean should any of us?
Value – Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins – $5,600
If I’m not playing Lamar Jackson, I’m playing Tua Tagovailoa. In a game you know there’s going to be a high-volume passing upside, he has Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill and Mike Gesicki and Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert and opportunity through the roof for an underpriced top-15 quarterback this week. Keep pricing guys like it’s last week instead of like it’s this week and I’ll take it every time. Tua is a potential Milly Maker winner, let me put it that way. The Ravens are likely going to be playing rookies Jalyn Armour-Davis and Pepe Williams after Kyle Fuller tore his ACL in Week 1, Marlon Humphrey was limited in practice and Marcus Peters’s status is still up in the air. All signs point to an over!
High Priced – Running Back
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts – $9,900
According to RunTheSims.com, Jonathan Taylor has the highest ceiling of any running back on the Week 2 DraftKings Main Slate. Last week the Jaguars gave up 130 total yards to Antonio Gibson, good for 20 DraftKings points. All good things if you are Taylor who saw 38 opportunities in Week 1. Michael Pittman is probably OUT this week after missing practice on both Thursday and Friday. Taylor is going to eat all game long. At only 10% rostership, I will be above the field on him this week in my GPP builds.
Mid-Range – Running Back
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,700
Leonard Fournette is the Tampa Bay Bucs offense right now. Mike Evans is banged up, Julio Jones as well, hell Chris Godwin is OUT this week already and it’s only Friday. Fournette practiced today and yesterday and he’s a full send. He’s the best player on the board at only $6,700. I’ll be head over the field with Lenny. I want to run around in a field of my little Lenny lineups. The Saints owned Tom Brady as a Buccaneer the last two years. Brady has thrown six touchdowns to 8 interceptions. He’s even come out and said that he’s not his old self and this offense is going to be different and that difference is Fournette.
Value – Running Back
Jeff Wilson, San Francisco 49ers – $5,100
Jeff Wilson Jr. is Bo McBrayer’s breakout back of the week. His DFS darling. His creme-de-la-creme of low-priced value running backs with the potential to score two touchdowns and run for a buck twenty-five, while catching three passes for 40 yards. I love that we are getting a high-volume running offense with a low-priced back who should see the goal-line work. We know he’s going to see upwards of 20 touches in this game. Wilson is only picking up 7% rostership at the moment. That’s music to my ears. No one’s on him. Except for Bo and everyone he tells and he never stops talking, so better act fast and lock him up!
High Priced – Wide Receiver
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders – $8,600
Davante Adams is currently the most rostered wide receiver on the Week 2 DraftKings Main Slate at 17%. I totally understand and I’m also going to advocate for rostering him this week. 17 targets last week and this week his grandma is in the stands for the first time to watch him play. You don’t think he’s going to show out for his grandma? You don’t think the whole Raiders team isn’t going to try to get him two touchdowns for his grandma? Grandma plays this week friends. She’s already at the MGM gambling according to Adams. I’m all in on Adam’s grandma!
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,700
Last week Christian Kirk saw 12 targets from Trevor Lawrence in a negative game script that saw them trailing much of the afternoon. This week they are home underdogs to the visiting Indianapolis Colts. Who don’t have Carson Wentz anymore (who beat them last week) they have Matt Ryan who looks to beat them this week. They’re going to need to throw the ball and Christian Kirk is the number one wide receiver on that team by a mile. 117 yd receiving on six receptions that’s close to 20 yards per reception. Add a touchdown in there and we’re looking at a 22 to 25-point game this week, which is definitely in the realm of possibilities. I’m shooting for the upside that the Jag’s defense still sucks and they will be playing in garbage time.
Value – Wide Receiver
Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders – $4,600
Last season Curtis Samuel barely saw the field. Last week he was targeted 11 times and caught eight passes for 55 yards and a touchdown. Oh and 20 DraftKings points as well. The boys and girls over at DraftKings do not believe in Samuel this week and have kept his price down at only $4,600. The Washington Commanders versus Detroit Lions game has a 48 1/2 point total. Neither one of these teams have a defense. That’s not good. As a matter of fact, it’s great because we want to bet against them this week in a potential shootout that I’m projecting goes over 50 points.
High Priced – Tight End
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $6,400
Mark Andrews is optimal. Mark Andrews is elite. Mark Andrews is the play for the high-priced tight ends this week with Kelce playing Thursday night. This is one of my favorite games of NFL week 2. I’m projecting this game to shoot over 50 points, crushing the 44.5-point total. Mark Andrews will catch a touchdown in this game. My projection is 19 to 21 points for him. This is going to be a different game than Week 1. The Ravens were crushing the Jets most of the game. There was no back and forth in that game. This week the Miami Dolphins are a different challenge altogether. I can see this game going down to the last play and hopefully is a touchdown to Mark Andrews. Fingers crossed.
Mid-Range – Tight End
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys – $5,200
They say a backup quarterback’s best friend is a tight end. I don’t think backup quarterbacks have best friends honestly. They’re losers cuz they’re not starting quarterbacks, but in this hypothetical world, I get it. The new quarterback socks so he throws it to the closest guy who’s not a lineman and that normally has the tight end whose kind of the lineman. Dalton Schultz is no lineman, so maybe he won’t hit this week, but who else would they throw to between him and Ceedee Lamb and Tony Pollard? $5,200 is a steal for Schultz in a loss coming from behind garbage touchdown you know you’re going to love it.
Value – Tight End
Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos – $3,700
Last week Albert Okwuegbunam caught five of six targets for 33 yards. All good signs now that Russell Wilson is his starting quarterback. At this pay-down price, we are chasing a touchdown in this plus matchup against a terrible Texans defense. The only downside of Albert O this week is that is the most popular tight end play at 12% rostership.
Welcome to NFL Week 1! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!
High Priced – Quarterback
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – $7,300
Lamar Jackson’s self-imposed deadline for signing a contract extension with the Baltimore Ravens came and went this Friday, only fueling the speculation about Jackson’s future with the team. You can’t help but think he has a huge chip on his shoulder heading in this weekend and that the New York Jets are going to, unfortunately (or fortunately for our sake) become his punching bag in this matchup.
In one career start against the New York Jets, Jackson passed for 212 yards, which was nice. But it was the five touchdowns that I think stand out from that performance. I’m not expecting a five-touchdown performance this week, but a three-touchdowns with 1 rushing on the ground is definitely on the table.
Running Jackson out naked is an option, but I like stacking him with either Mark Andrews or Rashod Bateman and then running it back with Elijah Moore of course. Shockingly Jackson is only picking up 6% roster ship as of Friday night. If this trend holds he could be a GPP winner come Sunday.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles – $6,800
According to RunTheSims.com, Jalen Hurts has a 60% boom rate. That’s a good thing. The Detroit Lions are not a good football team and that’s a good thing as well. This offseason the Eagles traded for A.J. Brown from the Tennessee Titans. That’s a good thing. Second-year wide receiver Devonta Smith has another year of experience under his belt and should be primed for a Breakout. As Olaf would say, “all good things.”
The only bad thing about Jalen hurts right now is that he’s picking up 12% rostership which makes him the most popular quarterback play on the DraftKings slate. You’re not sneaking up on anyone with Jalen hurts in your GPP lineup.
Which makes it a little bit harder for you to be successful in larger-scale tournaments with a field over on hurts. Stacking him with Brown and running it back with D’Andre Swift or Amon-Ra st. Brown is a way to differentiate yourself and lose some of that rostership. Don’t be afraid to play Hurts, you just need to play Hurt’s smart.
Value – Quarterback
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts – $5,500
Matt Ryan at $5,500 with Michael Pittman as his WR1 and Jonathan Taylor as a threat out of the backfield. Honestly, it’s an ideal situation for a paydown quarterback with a high implied team total against one of the worst defenses in recent NFL history.
This is the best offense Matt Ryan has played with in a long time. And one could argue that Jonathan Taylor in the backfield set up an even more dangerous play-action pass from Ryan. All that to say if the game script tilts away from Jonathan Taylor touchdowns toward Matt Ryan’s passing touchdowns, his 5% rostership could pay off big time.
Houston Texans’ defense last year surrendered over 2870 receiving yards to wide receivers with 16 touchdowns. Michael Pittman is prime for a breakout season and at $5,500 pairing him with Ryan makes a ton of sense in GPP tournaments. With Taylor’s projected ownership hemorrhaging around 20%, I like the sneaky value this stack presents.
High Priced – Running Back
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts – $9,100
According to statmuse.com, Jonathan Taylor has 75 carries for 462 yards and has scored 6 touchdowns in 4 games against the Texans in his career. Taylor owns Houston like the Astros own cheating or Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears, totally, fully, publicly, and repeatedly. I fully expect to him continue owning the Houston Texans in 2022 as well.
If you’re fading Matt Ryan and Michael Pittman, which many are, then you probably playing Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are going to score points in this game and most likely Taylor will factor in with at least one touchdown, with two to three touchdown upside given his recent history in these divisional contests.
The volume is going to be there. The opportunity is going to be there. The weak defense is going to be there. It’s a perfect storm to pay up at $9,100. It’s expensive. But don’t overthink the running back position. There are only a few running backs who can do with Taylor and has done against the Texans.
Mid-Range – Running Back
D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions – $6,800
D’Andre Swift is @Bo_McBigTime on Twitter’s favorite Week 1 running back play for DraftKings. I totally get it. Swift should have the rushing volume. He should see the passing upside if this game tilts as well. The 48.5 over under is one of the highest early game totals on the DraftKings main slate.
Pro Tip: Target PPR running backs in high total games.
Swift should see 15 to 18 carries and 7 to 9 targets he has the potential to score 25 to 30 fantasy points and makes an excellent stacking run-back option if you’re playing Jalen hurts and you’re stacking him with A.J. Brown.
Swift is picking up 16% rostership, but with a 33% boom rate according to RunTheSims.com, it’s a gamble worth taking. He makes an excellent play for GPP tournaments with small to medium-sized fields.
Value – Running Back
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans – $4,800
Dameon Pierce is only $4,800 on DraftKings this week. Let me repeat that. The starting running back for the Houston Texans, who are going to be losing by a lot to the Indianapolis Colts and who will need to play catchup up, increasing the chance for garbage time, is only $4,800.
So you missed out on Pierce in your home League. Make sense. People overvalued him, and he went early. Well, DraftKings didn’t get the memo, so now here’s your chance. Even better, he’s only 4% rostered heading into a game with a 46-point over/under. Jonathan Taylor can’t score all the touchdowns folks.
Think about the volume, the upside, the goal-line work, and the PPR points. It’s a perfect storm for a run-back stack if you want to play Jonathan Taylor (who’s 19-20% rostered) and not get crushed by the chalk.
High Priced – Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles – $6,400
AJ Brown is the truth! I’m paying down for my pay at wide receiver this week because I think at $6,400, he’s an absolute smash. PFF ranked him at the top of their NFL Week 1 wide receiver cornerback matchups chart. He scored a perfect 100%. I think that’s good.
Don’t let Jalen Hurts poor passing output in 2021lead you astray in 2022. Hurts didn’t have A.J. Brown. Tannehill only threw for 600 more yards on 100 more pass attempts with Brown last season. A peek inside the numbers reveals that A.J. is a monster waiting to attack Detroit Godzilla style.
He should see 8-10 targets in a plus matchup that has an implied team total of 26.25, there should be a 100-yard bonus on the table as well. I am expecting him to 4x his price tag and win me money. He’s going to be in all of my GPP lineups, mostly stacked with Hurts.
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
Elijah Moore, New York Jets – $5,100
Elijah Moore finished the 2021 NFL season with 20-plus DraftKings points in three of five games. I’m not worried about Joe Flacco starting this week in place of Zach Wilson. Flacco throws a pretty damn good deep ball and Elijah Moore runs a hell of a deep route. At only $5,100, Elijah Moore is one of the cheapest lotto tickets on the slate.
Last year the Ravens gave up 34 points per game to opposing wide receivers, the 26th most. The Jets are currently 6.5 home underdogs with a game script that favors high-volume targets in all likelihood is a come-from-behind effort. I love stacking Elijah Moore with Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson.
Value – Wide Receiver
Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs – $3,800
Last season the Kansas City Chiefs passed 67% of the time out of 11 personnel. For those who are new to NFL personnel groupings, that means three wide receivers, one tight end, and one running back on the field. Tyreek Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins in the offseason and in the second round, the Kansas City Chiefs selected Skyy Moore from Western Michigan.
Moore is not Tyreek Hill, but he will be running primarily out of the slot and he does have 4.41 40 speed. The 53.5 over/under is the highest total for the DraftKings Week 1 main slate. If Vegas thinks this game is going to shoot we want to have action on it. $3,800 for Skky Moore is a great play with a huge upside!
High Priced – Tight End
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $6,800
All the high-priced tight ends have been priced down this week. This might be the cheapest we’re ever going to get Mark Andrews. The Ravens treat Andrews as their number one wide receiver. He was the number one tight end last year ahead of Travis Kelce. This week could see 10 targets in a high total contest.
The Jets were terrible against tight ends last year, giving up over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. Expect the Baltimore Ravens to exploit the Jets linebacker matchups. According to PFF, Andrews has a decided advantage over Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley who should be covering him most of the afternoon. Stacking him with Lamar Jackson makes the most upside sense in a GPP environment.
Mid-Range – Tight End
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders – $5,400
It was incredibly hard to not go Kyle Pitts at $5,700 here. But Darren Waller at $5,400 coming off of a terrible injury-plagued season where he started the season priced at over $7,000 on DraftKings, is a value that’s really hard to overlook.
Waller is completely healthy and in a game environment that is expected to shoot out with a 52-point total. There will be a lot of attention on Davante Adams, and rightly so given the mega-stars offseason trade to the Vegas Raiders.
According to RunTheSims.Com, Waller is only picking up 8 % roster ship which is music to my ears. Travis Kelce is currently hemorrhaging around 16% roster ship for $1,200 more. Waller might not be your favorite play, but he makes all the sense in the GPP world. Think Sal Vetri’s “That One Dude.”
Value – Tight End
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals – $4,400
Last year Zach Ertz revitalize his career after being traded mid-season from the Philadelphia Eagles to the Arizona Cardinals. He became a go-to weapon for Kyler Murray, Averaging 8.7 targets per game without DeAndre Hopkins in the line-up. Guess who’s missing the first six games of the season. You guessed it, DeAndre Hopkins.
Reports are that second-year wideout Rondale Moore is also likely to miss the game increasing the likelihood that the Cardinals will lean even more heavily upon Ertz in a game they are now six-point home underdogs in. The game script indicates that they shall be passing as they shall be trailing and they shall need to make up the points. I love Zach Ertz at this price. It’s a no-brainer slam dunker.
Time is money. I’ll spare you the long intro. Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, and Hunter Renfrow were all drafted as the WR2 on their team last season. Each of them was projected outside of the top-15 and they finished overall as the WR1, WR3, WR5, and WR10 respectively. ADP is a lie.
This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the ADP pill—the story ends and you wake up with your drafted fantasy team and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill and…WR2 Theory.
WR2 Theory Origin Story
Everyone loves a good origin story. If you don’t, just scroll past to get to the analytics.
It’s been two years since WR2 Theory was officially launched into fantasy football ether. If you missed the origin story, WR2 Theory’s roots can be traced to a brief-but-meaningful Twitter exchange with JJ Zachariason in February 2020. JJ posted a tweet asking for questions for his Late-Round Podcast mailbag. All the stars aligned as I stumbled upon it and posted a question that I had been mulling over the last few seasons. Simply put, I wanted to know how accurately we (as the fantasy community) were at successfully predicting which wide receiver finished the season as the WR1 on their own team. I was sure that this question had already been answered by fantasy football analysts and if JJ could just kindly push me in the right direction, I could get that info and get on with winning all my leagues….in February….don’t judge me.
After talking to JJ, it quickly became apparent that the easy answers I was seeking were not readily available to be effortlessly plucked from the fantasy football tree of knowledge. If my question was going to be answered, I was gonna need to take the fantasy stats into my own hands. I started immediately and haven’t looked back!!!
My Process
I began by pouring over the last eight seasons of WR ADP data and then compared it to the end of the season wide receiver rankings. Next, I filtered that data through the vacated targets tool to see if there was a correlation between breakout WRs and vacated targets.
Afterward, I studied the team-specific factors and circumstances to identify and document the conditions that led to the shift in the WR value for each team. Finally, I created the “criteria for success” that incorporated all of the key data points and then used them to determine WR2 breakout candidates for 2022.
As I dug further into the data, I started to see a pattern emerge. Each year there are wide receivers that are routinely undervalued and outperform their ADP. In 2021, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, Darnell Mooney, and Christian Kirk, were all drafted as the WR2 on their respective teams and finished as the WR1. In the case of Kupp and Chase, both had teammates (Robert Woods and Tee Higgins) who finished in the top-12 the previous season.
You don’t have to be Nimble with Numbers to see the discrepancy between consensus wide receiver ADP and true wide receiver value. The question then becomes, how do we identify the next WR2 to become a WR1 or the WR3 who will greatly outperform their ADP?
WR2 Theory Criteria for Success
Every evaluation/prediction process needs criteria for success. Here is mine:
Vacated Targets: Targets that are available in an offense.
High Volume Passing Offenses: Offenses that consistently/historically see an increased percentage of passing volume when compared to the league average.
Emerging Talent/Rookies: The infusion of talented younger players into offensive schemes.
Injuries: Increased workload due to injury to a teammate.
Vacated Targets
One important tool that I used to help me identify potential WRs who fit into the WR2 Theory was the 2021 vacated target data. Here is the list of 2022 vacated targets brought to you by John Daigle from 4for4 (@notJDaigle on Twitter). I updated it with color graphics and made it sortable and accessible here. My colleague doesn’t believe they exist but we’re talking about them about and now you are thinking about them, so…
Observations
Last year, Cooper Kupp shattered the glass ceiling for WR2 Theory after scoring 439.5 points, the most fantasy points ever scored by a wide receiver. Kupp was drafted as the overall WR16, three spots after his teammate Robert Woods who was WR13. WR2 Theory for the win!!!
This season, two of the league’s top quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers both saw their stud wide receivers traded in the offseason. Mahomes has 340 targets and Rodgers has 250 targets that need a new home this year, which is extremely intriguing. The Tennessee Titans moved on from A.J. Brown and brought in Robert Woods and drafted Treylon Burks. The Dallas Cowboys and the Buffalo Bills have over 30% vacated targets as both have moved on from older wide receivers. They either drafted a wide receiver or have younger players waiting to ascend to the starting role. Tom Brady has close to 200 targets up for grabs as well. This is why WR2 Theory matters. Get this right and you Cooper Kupp your league.
A Passing League
It is undeniable that the NFL has become a passing league. Last year, six teams featured at least two wide receivers who finished in the fantasy top 30. Explosive Offenses: Over the last seven years the following teams supported two top-30 WRs.
Emerging Talent/Rookies
The common-sense wisdom in redraft leagues has always been to wait on rookie wide receivers, who typically are unreliable and breakout later on in year two or three. In 2020, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Chase Claypool turned that thinking on its head, with Jefferson finishing as a WR1 and Lamb and Claypool finishing as WR2s. In 2021, Ja’Marr Chase scored over 300 fantasy points and Jaylen Waddle finished as the WR13, scoring 245 points.
The 2021 NFL wide receiver class was stacked with talent and they did not disappoint. Here is the list of rookie and second-year WRs who finished in the top-36 in 2021 (Bold indicates 2021 rookie).
2022 WR2 Candidates
Here are my 2022 WR2 Theory break-out candidates identified by round. All 2021 ADP rankings come directly from 4for4’s ADP tool and are based on a 12-Team PPR league.
Rounds 3–5
Mike Williams – Los Angeles Chargers – WR17
Mike Williams finally broke out last season with Justin Herbert under center, finishing as the overall WR12. Despite averaging only 0.7 fewer FPPG last season, he’s currently being drafted seven spots after 30-year-old Keenan Allen, who is flying off the board at WR10.
Digging into the numbers, Mike Williams was boom or bust last year, amassing a staggering 66% of his fantasy points in only six games. In the other 11 games, he only averaged 7.4 fantasy points, which was frustrating. His targets per game fluctuated between 4 and 17. Mike Williams won you weeks and lost your weeks. He was an upside play with variance, a gamble for sure each week, unlike Allen.
Why should you trust him thin 2022, given what you just read? Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) brought up a great point on Twitter that his production decrease coincided with an early-season injury in Week 5 of last year. This makes a lot of sense, given his dip in target share percentage in the weeks following. Allen outpaced him 71 targets to 42 targets in the next seven weeks.
This year Williams is completely healthy, with no lingering knee issues hampering his progress. Evan Silva of Establish the Run lays out a pretty convincing case for Williams surpassing Allen this season. I’m with Evan! I absolutely love Williams and have him on every team that I’ve drafted so far this year (4).
He’s already a top-12 fantasy wide receiver, who has another year of reps with Herbert, who the Chargers just signed to a 3-year $60M deal. All the signs are here given the high volume passing offense for Williams to smash his WR17 ADP and finish as the WR1 on the Chargers.
Allen Robinson – Los Angeles Rams – WR23
Allen Robinson was terrible last season, but in his defense so were the Bears, Matt Nagy, and Justin Fields. Matt Harmon from Reception Perception points out how terribly the Bears used him last season “Over 47 percent of Robinson’s sampled routes in 2021 were a slant or curl. I mean, what is that?” Matt is showing restraint, I will not. That is some bullshit. McVay won’t do him dirty like that this year.
Used w/permissoin from Receptionperception.com
When Matt came on the Chalk Blocked Show he said, “Any argument that Allen Robinson is washed is completely ridiculous.” Word on the beat reporter streets is that Robinson is thriving with Stafford. He is quickly becoming one of Stafford’s most reliable targets, hauling in targets in the middle of the field. Stafford is head and shoulders the best NFL quarterback that Robinson has ever played with.
With the exception of 2020, when Cooper Kupp finished the overall WR26, the Los Angeles Rams have had two wide receivers inside the top 24 every year since 2018. Robert Woods has been traded to the Tennessee Titans, opening the way for Robinson’s acquisition.
The Rams’ offense produced 899 wide receiver fantasy points in 2021. They scored 92 more points than the next closest team, the Tom Brady-led Bucs. This offense is primed to be even better than it was last year, which is a kind of scary way of thinking. Robinson has WR1 upside in a pass-friendly offense and you can draft him at the end of the fifth round. Sign me up for all the shares.
Rounds – 6–8
Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR24
Last year Chris Godwin averaged 17.3 FPPG, and Mike Evans averaged 16.4 FPPG. Evans is currently being drafted 15 spots ahead of him. Godwin is coming off a knee injury, which has suppressed his early ADP. According to Luke Easterling from Bucs Wire, “Godwin didn’t start training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, which is always a good sign. Just a few days into camp, he began taking part in positional drills, wearing a knee brace.”
Godwin finished as the WR2 in 2019, averaging 19.7 FPPG that season with Jameis Winston. ADP perspective, the WR24 last year was Calvin Ridley, he averaged 14.2 FPPG. Godwin might miss a few early-season reps, but I’m not worried about an aging Julio Jones or Russell Gage impacting his season-long value. There’s no Gronk, and oh, btw, last year both Godwin and Antonio Brown averaged 17.3 FPPG.
In the last two seasons, Tom Brady has attempted 1,329 passes, completing 886 times for 9,949 yards and 83 touchdowns. Please tell me why Chris Godwin won’t be on all my teams, unless you steal him from me. How dare you! And after I put you on to him and all. I see how it is. No Godwin for you!!
Gabriel Davis – Buffalo Bills – WR27
The Buffalo Bills moved on from Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason. The moves freed up 200 targets in the Bills’ high-octane passing offense. The Bills’ wide receivers scored the fourth most fantasy points last season behind only the Rams, Buccaneers, and Vikings.
Admittedly the offseason hype has the four-touchdown playoff game against the Chiefs sent his ADP into orbit. Rightly so, if we are being honest. Josh Allen is a potential NFL Hall of Fame quarterback in his early prime with a cannon arm and a wide receiving arsenal that looks close to unstoppable, even in the vaunted AFC East.
Let’s look at the numbers from 2021. Davis performed well during the regular season, earning a 73.7 PFF grade. That’s all well and good, but he went total beast mode in the playoffs, turning his 13 targets into 10 receptions for 242 yards and 5 touchdowns. His 92.3 PFF ranking was the best of any playoff wide receiver. The future is now with Gabe Davis, shake off the haters and join team winning!
Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings – WR29
Picking Adam Thielen might not be the sexy pick the kids will be using to inspire the TikTok dance trend, but the man gets it done. With Justin Jefferson as his running mate the last two seasons, Thielen has averaged 16.2 FPPG. The average WR29 over the last 5 seasons is averaging 13 FPPG. If you like more points, Thielen makes a lot of sense.
Still not sold? Thielen converted his 15 red-zone targets into nine touchdowns for a truly mind-blowing 86% touchdown conversation rate. Thielen is a dangerous weapon that will be single-covered 60% of the time every time Kirk Cousin looks for him. Thielen isn’t going to be flashy, but his two touchdown performances will win you your week.
Still not sold? Mike Zimmer and his Instagram girlfriend broke up and oh, he’s not the coach of the Minnesota Vikings anymore. In his place was hired pass-friendly Kevin O’Connell, who wants to push the ball downfield, unlike Zimmer who established the run more than Adam Levitan. If Thielen can stay healthy, he’s a tremendous value at WR29. Don’t overthink this one.
Hunter Renfrow – Las Vegas Raiders – WR36
Hunter Renfrow is the perfect WR2 Theory candidate. He finished as the overall WR10 last year in PRR. This current ADP is wild. I get that Davante Adams is the WR1 and Darren Waller is a thing, but still, this is just stupid. Renfrow had a ridiculous 80% reception rate, why is Derek Carr suddenly going to ignore him? I didn’t realize that Adams was a slot receiver. I’ll adjust my ranks.
With the addition of Adams, Renfrow will be further ignored, increasing the potential for favorable one-on-one matchups. Renfrow might not score 260 fantasy points, but he’s definitely going to score more than 170. That’s the average score the WR36 scored in the last five years.
I’m projecting Renfrow for 190 fantasy points, which is more like WR30. Renfrow doesn’t have to finish the season as the WR1 on the Raiders for WR2 Theory to work. Adams depressing his ADP makes him a value and adds 30-40 points to your team without reaching for him.
Rounds 8-12
Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers – WR39
For the last two seasons, Brandon Aiyuk has finished as the overall WR35. He’s averaged 177 FPPG but has had his ups and downs along the way. The infusion of Trey Lance into the San Francisco 49er’s offense is going to be a game changer for Aiyuk, who thrives downfield after the catch. He ranked 19th amongst NFL wide receivers after the ball is in his hands.
We all know Aiyuk’s athleticism is off the charts. Combine that with an explosive 49ers offense and the impending Deebo Samuel regression, his WR39 price tag appears to be a grave miscalculation from the fantasy football community.
Realistically we should expect more of the 15 FPPG we saw in 2020 than the 10 FPPG we saw last season. If you remember, he began the 2021 season in Kyle Shanahan’s dog house and it took a few games to break out of it. I don’t expect any of those issues, as all the training camp reports have been glowing.
Jose Luis Sanchez from Si.com reported that “The Brandon Aiyuk hype train is legitimate. It isn’t just a bunch of hope that he will be amazing this season. He’s DEFINITELY going to be sweet this year. In fact, his “hype train” is officially now a “shooting star” with how mesmerizing his practices have been.”
If Aiyuk can average even 14 FPPG that would be a 90-point improvement from last season. A better hype train name might be “Sleeping Giant.” I’ll be scoping up all the Aiyuk shares I can grab at the end of the 8th round.
Skyy Moore–Kansas City – WR50
I’ve watched all offseason as Skyy Moore’s ADP crept up from the ’60s into the ’50s and soon into the ’40s. Should you be buying the hype? An 11th-round pick for a talented rookie with 4.41-speed that offense is joining a Patrick Mahomes offense with 340 vacated targets. I’m surprised it took this long for the FF community to figure it out.
According to training camp reports, the Chiefs are deploying Moore all over the field. He’s not Tyreek Hill. And he doesn’t have to be to return value at his current ADP. Bryan Stewart from Arrowhead Pride reported “Moore…will be a slot receiver…he still stands apart from a typical slot wideout, who usually doesn’t have the linear speed to threaten downfield — or the catch radius to be a legitimate threat from the outside. Moore checks both of those boxes.”
Moore might not start the season red hot as he’ll be competing with veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and MVS for targets. If you draft Moore, give him a few weeks to find his footing, because once he does, he might not ever let up.
George Pickens – Pittsburgh Steelers – WR52
George Pickens’s ADP is currently on hellish fire after his three-catch, 43-yard, touchdown performance was noticed by fantasy football heavy hitters. Jeff Bell of FootballGuys (@4WhomJBellTolls) astutely pointed out that Pickens was on pace for a historical rookie season with “204 receptions, 2,924 yards, and 68 touchdowns. A record.” His tweet went viral of course (I blame analytics) causing the ADP spike of the freaking summer and all but ruining my WR2 Theory reveal party. Thanks a lot, Jeff.
Pickens still has value, even after his rapid ADP rise. He’s coming off the board at the beginning of the 11th round, which is a fair price to pay for a dynamic big-play wide receiver whose Player Profiler comp is Jerry Jeudy. The Steelers’ offense should be better this year without the accused rapist Ben Roethlisberger under center.
First off Diontae Jonhson is not getting 169 targets this year. I expect Pickens to vulture a handful of those targets. Mark Kaboly of The Atheltic reported “Pickens has been the star of camp, consistently making play after play, which is highly unusual for a rookie receiver. You would expect to see flashes, but not every day. And I mean every day.”
Chase Claypool regressed in 2021, scoring 2.3 fewer FPPG. Calling himself a top-three wide receiver in the NFL over the summer doesn’t sit quite right with me either. The Steelers have a history of recognizing wide receiver talent, I trust Mike Tomlin knows what he’s doing and will be scooping Pickens looking for a long-shot league winner.
Rounds 12-16
Jalen Tolbert – Dallas Cowboys – WR59
I like Jalen Tolbert and have him on every team I’ve drafted this year (dynasty, redraft, best ball, even Scott Fish Bowl). My reasoning is that he will be a starting wide receiver for the Dallas Cowboys. Seems pretty straightforward. They produced over 750 fantasy points for the wide receiver position and now find themselves out of healthy wide receivers.
CBSSPorts is reporting “With Michael Gallup (knee) and James Washington (foot) both set to miss the beginning of the regular season, there will be a lot of pressure on Tolbert to handle a big role from the jump despite being a third-round pick from a smaller conference.”
Jalen Tolbert underwhelmed in his preseason debut, only catching two of seven targets. Still, he had seven targets. He might not start off red hot, but there will be a role for him to start the season and he should be drafted in every home league. Hopefully, by you.
Cheat code. Draft Gallup and stash him on your IR until he’s back off the PUP list.
Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals– WR60
All Tyler Boyd did last year was score 184 points and finish as the overall WR31. How does the fantasy football community repay him? They drop him 30 ADP spots and start drafting him in the 14th round. This is just absolute madness. For perspective, Quez Watkins was the WR60 last and he scored 116 fantasy points.
In the last four seasons in the NFL Boyd has scored 221, 223, 192, and 184 points. Sure there’s some regression, but damn! Are you telling me he’s going to go full Quez in 2021? I just can’t with this garbage.
Tyler Boyd deserves much better and if he’s hanging around in the 14th round of your home league, you are getting away with highway robbery. If either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins were to get banged up, Boyd immediately becomes a starting WR3 on your squad each week. Free Tyler Boyd!!!
Jahan Dotson– Washington Commanders – WR66
The Washington Commander might actually be onto something this time with Jahan Dotson. I live in the Washington DC suburbs and Dotson fanboying has been reverberating across the sports radio airways in anticipation of him getting unleashed this season.
Sure, all hometown talk radio is too good to be true. Sam Fortier of the Washington Post reports that “Dotson should be on the field often. Turner uses three or more wide receivers at one of the highest rates in the league — 75 percent of the time last year, according to Sharp Football — and will continue to do so this season.”
Curtis Samuel’s presence might scare you away, but if the Commanders had faith in Samuel, they wouldn’t have invested 1st round draft capital in Dotson. It’s his job to win at this point. If Carson Wentz can do his best Joe Flacco impersonation and get the ball downfield, Scary Terry might finally have a suitable running mate at wide receiver.
Dotson’s ADP is currently 15.10 and being drafted as a dart throw or is available on the waiver wire in PPR leagues. He’s a receiver that I won’t be drafting, but I will be monitoring him the first few weeks of the season to see how he’s acclimating to the NFL.
Nico Collins – Houston Texans – WR76
Nico Collins is a wide receiver that I have been drafting all offseason as well. He’s free and cheap and 6’4″ and 220lbs. Sure, the Texans are one bad season from being relegated to the USFL, but they are committed to developing Davis Mills into a franchise quarterback. They’ve armed him with a big downfield threat in Collins.
Last season, Collins got off to a slow start but ended the last three games catching eight balls for 135 yards and a touchdown. During this preseason, Collins has been working with Texans wide receiving great Andre Johnson to work on his route running and hand placement. The work appears to be paying off early on in camp as Collins looks fluid and much more comfortable running routes.
Realistically I am not expecting Collins to oust Brandin Cooks from his WR1 position on the team, but I am expecting him to close the gap and carve out a role as a fantasy flex player this season. If he can double his output from 2021, he’ll be live each week.
K.J. Hamler – Denver Broncos – WR87
The Broncos lost Tim Patrick to a season-ending torn ACL during the training camp. K.J. Hamler missed all of his rookie season, suffering his own torn ACL in the 2021 preseason. The second-round pick has looked good in his return to practice.
Luke Patterson of Si.com reports “Hamler’s routes were precise, smooth, and explosive on Monday. The third-year slot receiver known for his speed, burst, and elite athleticism caught virtually every pass thrown his way in positional drills and during team period.”
The addition of Russell Wilson to the Broncos’ offense is a true game changer for Hamler given last season that Drew Lock was battling with Teddy Bridgewater for the quarterback job.
According to PFF’s Sam Munson, “Hamler could be a perfect designated deep threat for, arguably, the best deep passer in the league.” His deep ball skill set is exactly what Wilson maximized in Tyler Locket over his career in Seattle. There’s already talk from Hamler that sees himself as the next Tyler Lockett. Wheels up on his free ADP.
I already have my concession speech ready. In the most unlikely of collapses, my DFS luck ran out at the end of the regular season. In order to be the recipient of the championship whiskey, I will need to win by more than 37 points on Sunday. Any given Sunday, right?
With only one slate left, a Showdown slate, it will be even more difficult to reach the crest of the crater I left when I smacked into DFS rock bottom like the asteroid that killed all the cute dinosaurs. My Super Bowl lineup is as aggressive as I could afford to be. Here’s hoping I can hit optimal and also get Scott’s lineup to completely fall flat. Then I’ll be able to mock him with a nice dram, sipping with my pinky finger flying.
Bo’s Lineup
Captain – Odell Beckham Jr. – LA Rams – $12,600
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Los Angeles Rams reacts during the second quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at SoFi Stadium on January 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
The major risk I am taking with this lineup is fading both of the top wide receivers in the game. I am doubling down on my Kupp fade to Captain OBJ. Cincinnati’s pass defense isn’t terrible. They also play a lot of Cover-3 out of the nickel, which has the effect of taming Cooper Kupp’s outrageous upside. If I’m right, OBJ will duplicate his NFC Championship performance and score a touchdown.
Flex – Kendall Blanton – LA Rams – $4,600
I really don’t expect Tyler Higbee to be a factor in the passing game, even if he is able to play. Blanton stepped in masterfully against the 49ers, with 10.7 fantasy points in relief. A full game running routes against that shell zone scheme would result in very nice numbers at this salary for Blanton. Cincinnati is 29th in the NFL against opposing tight ends. McVay knows this and will slice the Bengals’ underbelly with an attack on the middle seam.
Flex – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $10,600
CINCINNATI, OHIO – FEBRUARY 07: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals walks onto the field as he is introduced during a Cincinnati Bengals Fan Rally ahead of Super Bowl LVI at Paul Brown Stadium on February 07, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
Joe Burrow is just too cool. I tried to find a reason to fade him, but his floor is simply too high. Sure, Ramsey will limit whomever he covers. On the other hand, Burrow has a trio of great receivers and the other defensive backs beside Ramsey have been a liability. Look for Burrow to need to pass for 300 yards for this game to be close.
Flex – Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals – $7,600
CINCINNATI, OHIO – JANUARY 15: Tee Higgins #85 of the Cincinnati Bengals drops a reception against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of the AFC Wild Card playoff game at Paul Brown Stadium on January 15, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
I fully assume that Ja’Marr Chase will draw the majority of Jalen Ramsey’s attention. This excites me because Darious Williams has been getting barbecued all postseason by receivers nowhere near as good as Tee Higgins. Higgins is a big, rangy receiver who will be called upon in the red zone. I don’t see any way the Rams can cover all of the Bengals’ receivers.
Perine is the third-down back for Cincinnati, which means draws and screens (especially off of chip blocks) will be his forte. Raheem Morris loves to bring pressure on third down, which might be a fatal error against Burrow. At only $2.4k, I’m taking the chance that Burrow will use Perine to slip in behind the blitz, where big plays (like the one Perine had versus the Chiefs) can completely change the game’s momentum.
Flex – Matthew Stafford – Kansas City Chiefs – $10,800
Sep 12, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) celebrates in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Yes, I truly believe Stafford is the quarterback of destiny this season. Burrow has led his Bengals to an improbable berth in this game, but the Rams were supposed to be hereafter trading for the longtime Detroit Lion. Los Angeles mortgaged its entire future for this season. I need the guy to only throw touchdowns to Beckham and Blanton. It sounds absolutely absurd after the season Kupp had, but I am banking (and praying) on this being a wild finish to the craziest season in NFL history.
Raise My Kupp
At no point in the 2021 NFL season did I envision myself one game away from defeating Bo McBrayer and winning the Clash of the Beards and Bellies. I’m humbled to be in that very position this Super Sunday. I have a 32 point lead on Bo with only one game remaining. I thought long and hard about my lineup. I knew that I needed to play it reasonably safe and that Bo would in turn be forced to pivot to riskier, high variance plays. I made sure to include both quarterbacks and Cooper Kupp in my lineup. Bo faded Kupp and hitched his wagons to the OBJ Express. “It’s a bold strategy, Cotton” is all I can really say at this point. Our season-long battle comes down to which Ram’s wide receivers catch the Matthew Stafford touchdowns. I’m betting on Kupp and he’s betting on OBJ. May the football gods be with me and only me. May the sweet taste of victory literally be mine!!
Scott’s Lineup
Captain – Cam Akers – LA Rams – $9,600
TAMPA, FLORIDA – JANUARY 23: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams hands the ball off to teammate Cam Akers #23in the fourth quarter of the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Cam Akers isn’t my favorite DraftKings captain this week, but he is my favorite pay-down option that allows me to load my roster up with both quarterbacks, Cooper Kupp, and a starting running back (Akers). The Cincinnati Bengals defense allowed over 2,100 total yards and 16 total touchdowns to running backs in 2021. Akers’ 54 attempts in three playoff games are second-most for backs in the playoffs behind only Jerick McKinnon’s 55. Akers should see plenty of action all game long. And if the Rams are winning come the fourth quarter, which they are favored to be, Akers could be called on to run the clock out. If the Rams are losing, even better. Akers will be used more in the passing game.
Flex – LA Rams DST – $3,400
The LA Rams DST has the home team advantage in the Super Bowl. Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Jalen Ramsey will be amped up and should feed off the electric energy from playing at home in front of their home fans. The last LA Rams Super Bowl game was predicted to shootout, but in the end, was a low-scoring tilt against the GOAT Tom Brady. I’m looking for 9-11 points from the defense, which should be manageable given the pass-rushing advantage the Rams enjoy/
Flex – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $10,600
KANSAS CITY, MO – JANUARY 30: Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) enters the stadium before the AFC Championship game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs on Jan 30, 2022 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Joe “Shiesty” Burrow is the truth. He’s beaten the Raiders, the Titans, Pat Mahomes, and the Kansas City Chiefs in an improbable sophomore run to the 2021 Super Bowl. Last season there were questions about whether he would be able to return to his rookie form after his gruesome 2020 knee injury. Burrow, aided by rookie wide receiving sensation Ja’Marr Chase, has exploded onto the NFL landscape, introducing the world to one of the coolest kids around. How can you not cheer for Joey B this week? Bo is no idiot, and of course, has Burrow on his squad as well. We all want a piece of greatness.
Flex – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $11,600
Speaking of Kupp, he’s the highest-scoring player in DraftKings, averaging 27.8 points per game. Kupp was incredible, amassing 145 receptions, 16 touchdowns, and over 1,900 receiving yards. Kupp is the most expensive player, but for good reason. A Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown is -165. The man is expected to put up real and fantasy points on Super Bowl Sunday. Unlike Bo, I will not be getting cute and will be playing Kupp one last time this season.
Evan – McPherson – Cincinnati Bengals – $4,000
Evan McPherson has scored 11 or more points in the last seven games. In the playoffs, he has been money, making all 12 of his field goals and averaging 16 points per game. If the Rams defense stops Burrow, I like having McPhearson raining down 50-yard field goal bombs all night. At only $4,000 he’s one of the best value plays on the board.
Flex – Matthew Stafford – LA Rams – $10,800
Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp Combined this season for 57 touchdowns. The smart money in Cash games and H2H contests is to feature the two players who are most likely to score touchdowns. I’m not surprised Bo has included Stafford in his lineup, but fading Kupp for the second straight week in favor of OBJ is a risky all-or-nothing play brought on by the desperation of being down 30-plus points.
Nimble w/Numbers 