Featured

Ask Your Doctor if Nimble GPP is Right for You – Scott

Every year at the start of the NFL season millions of Americans are diagnosed with DraftKings Deposit Dysfunction Disorder or DDDD for short. This crippling affliction impacts close to 90% of DraftKings players and can have some serious long-lasting negative side effects. “Late Swapping Syndrome”, “Tight End Punting Disease,” and “JaMarr Chasing” are all tournament ruining conditions that have been directly linked back to DDDD. There are so many unanswered questions surrounding the disease and I’m pretty sure that admitting to yourself or others that you even suffer from DDDD constitutes a HIPPA violation. I mean, is there even a cure? If diagnosed, what are my chances of ever cashing again? Is there a deposit bonus for those who suffer from DDDD perhaps? No. Scary times for sure.

If you think you or a loved one might be suffering from DDDD, don’t give up hope. A groundbreaking revolutionary weekly DFS treatment called “Nimble GPP” has just been made available to the public! Positive trials results last year included a second-place finish in a DraftKings GPP field of 297,000 and a notable 4,900% ROI. Patients who started taking “Nimble GPP” reported experiencing positive effects almost immediately. Swollen bankrolls, increased feelings of worth, and success in the romance department was all reported within hours of cashing each Sunday. DDDD doesn’t have to sack your GPP lineups anymore. Ask your doctor if Nimble GPP is right for you.

NFL Week 1

Welcome to NFL Week 1! Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value.” The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup. If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo GPP Lineups, click the links for weekly lineups.

High Priced Quarterback

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – AUGUST 20: Quarterback Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals throws a pass during the first half of the NFL preseason game against the Kansas City Chiefs at State Farm Stadium on August 20, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Chiefs defeated the Cardinals 17-10. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

GPP – Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – $7,600 

According to PFF, Kyler Murray has a 39% Passing advantage this week against the Tennesse Titans. Last season the Titans defense was ranked second to last overall, giving up over 21 fantasy points per game. Murray is a smart dynamic playmaker who added two weapons to his arsenal in A.J. Green and Rondale Moore. DeAndre Hopkins is still around as well. My favorite stack is Murray and Moore at only $10,600.

Mid-Range Quarterback

PHILADELPHIA, PA – JANUARY 03: Jalen Hurts #2 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs with the ball against the Washington Football Team at Lincoln Financial Field on January 3, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

GPP – Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles – $6,400 

The Falcons ranked 31st against the quarterback position in 2020, giving up a meaty 23.3 points per game. Unless first-round pick Kyle Pitts plans on playing both ways, the Falcons will continue to struggle to stop opposing QBs. This is great news for semi-rookie Jalen Hurts, who is starting his first full season as Eagle’s starting quarterback. The Falcons conceded 40 touchdowns to quarterbacks last year. Look for Hurts to carve them up for two scores through the air and at least one rushing in this defense optional matchup.

Value Quarterback

GPP – Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers – $5,000 

It might be too early to anoint him “Slinging Sammy Darnold” but don’t be surprised if you hear it whispered in his sleep by Jordan Vanek after this game against the 32nd ranked New York Jets secondary. If you are going to pay down at quarterback, Darnold presents the greatest upside for your money. RuntheSims.com placed his points per dollar value at 3.87 this week.

Christian McCaffery’s return should provide players with a built-in floor and presents some very interesting game stacking options, including stacking Darnold, CMC, and D.J. Moore or even Terrace Marshall.

High Priced Runningback

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 10: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints celebrates after defeating the Chicago Bears with a score of 21 to 9 in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at Mercedes Benz Superdome on January 10, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

GPP – Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints – $8,600

Alvin Kamara averaged over 33 points per game in the eight games he’s played in without Michael Thomas on the field. Currently, he’s rostered on 20% of DraftKings Main Slate GPP rosters, which is the highest of all running backs. I’m comfortable with eating the chalk on this Kamara because his upside is slate-breaking.

Mid-Range Runningback 

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – DECEMBER 20: Running back James Robinson #30 of the Jacksonville Jaguars successfully reaches for a touchdown against cornerback Marlon Humphrey #44 and linebacker Patrick Queen #48 of the Baltimore Ravens during the third quarter of their game at M&T Bank Stadium on December 20, 2020 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)

GPP – James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,400

James Robinson Szn. Oh, you wanted some analysis? I see. How about this. The Texans are terrible and will win you money all season if you load up against them. Seriously, the Texans punted on defense when they signed their entire squad to one-year deals.  On the other hand, the unfortunate injury to Travis Etienne opens the door for James Robinson to once again be the dominant rushing and pass catcher in the Jacksonville Jaguars’ backfield.

Value Runningback

GPP – Javonte Willaims, Denver Broncos  – $4,000

Someone needs to tell DraftKings that Javonte Williams is the running back that should be priced up in the Broncos backfield this week instead of at $5,300. I’m mean, I’m not going to tell them. I am going to exploit it for my own monetary gain and trust that some other good soul will inform them of their error. See how this works?

High Priced Wide Receiver 

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 25: Calvin Ridley #18 of the Atlanta Falcons celebrates his two point conversion reception against the Detroit Lions during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 25, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

GPP – Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons – $7,900

Calvin Ridley is a baller and he’s about to ball out this week against the Philadelphia Eagles. PFF and RuntheSims.com both rank Ridley as one of their top receiving option for Week 1, so it’s just not me. Ridley has been close to unstoppable in the 19 previous games he’s been fed eight or more targets. He’s scored 16 touchdowns. Let me repeat that. He has scored 16 touchdowns in 19 games with eight or more targets. The chances are very high that Ridely scores at least one touchdown, which means his chances of scoring two are better than almost everyone else’s.

Mid-Range Wide Receiver 

CHARLOTTE, NC – AUGUST 27: D.J. Moore #2 of the Carolina Panthers is pushed by Miles Killebrew #28 of the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half of an NFL preseason game at Bank of America Stadium on August 27, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Chris Keane/Getty Images)

GPP – D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers – $6,100

D.J. Moore might be the best receiver play all week on DraftKings. PFF predicts that Moore with the fourth-best cornerback matchup for Week 1. Sam Darnold will be itching to prove the Jets wrong in this redemption/revenge contest. Moore amassed close to 1,200 yards on under 70 receptions in 2020. He’s an incredible route runner and posses a nightmare scenario for new Jets’ head coach Robert Selah. With only four touchdowns in all of 2020, Moore is set to break out this season, don’t be surprised if he scored twice in this one.

Value Wide Receiver 

GPP –  Elijah Moore, New York Jets  – $3,000

Jamison Crowder is out Week 1, still recovering from COVID-19, which means that New York Jets’ second-round pick Elijah Moore will get his first NFL start alongside his fellow rookie Zach Wilson. Moore could end up facing off against his former Ole Miss teammate Myles Hartsfield when he lines up in the slot. This matchup favors the speedy Moore and could be the key that unlocks the GPP slate. Currently, he is only be rostered on 14% of DraftKings Main Slate GPP lineups.

High Priced Tight End

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – AUGUST 20: Tight end Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs on the sidelines during the first half of the NFL preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on August 20, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Chiefs defeated the Cardinals 17-10. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

GPP – Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – $8,300

Travis Kelce’s matchup advantage over Cleveland Browns’ linebacker Owusu-Koramoah is 65% according to PFF. Kelce’s $8,300 price tag is still underpriced according to his upside and GPP is all about chasing that upside. The game script that I am predicting is death by a thousand passes to Kelce in the middle of the field and a stat line of 9 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown.


Mid-Range Tight End

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – AUGUST 29: Kyle Pitts #8 of the Atlanta Falcons listens to Matt Ryan #2 during pregame warmups prior to facing the Cleveland Browns at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on August 29, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

GPP – Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – $4,400

Hard to ask for a better NFL debut matchup for Kyle Pitts than the Philadelphia Eagles. Last season the Eagles ranked 25th against the tight end position, giving up eight touchdowns (three in Tyler Higbee in Week 2) and over 14 points per game.

K’Von Wallace will be the primary safety assigned to stop Pitts on Sunday. Wallace stands 5’11” and Pitts a mear 6’6″, seven inches taller. The tallest defender Pitts might face is 6’2″ Linebacker, Alex Singleton. This is the definition of a mismatch and I want all of it. Pitts will never be this cheap again. Currently, he is being rostered in only 20% of the DraftKings GPP Main Slate entries. He’s a smash or my Flex.

Value Tight End

GPP – Donald Parham, Los Angeles Chargers – $3,100

According to PFF, the Chargers have a plus matchup this week at the tight end position against Jon Bostic. Parham scored three times in 2020. I expect him to score at least five touchdowns this season, possibly picking up his first this week against Washington.

Clash of the Beards and Bellies- Week 3

#TagsStrong

I planned on leading off with a joke about how Scott’s chances to beat me twice in a row were as small as the hands of the sitting president the last time he prevailed. Even such a stunningly hilarious joke is not the same today. The fantasy football community lost a friend and the industry lost a titan in Mike Tagliere. I emulated him as much as I could as a content creator, husband, and father. He was great at all of it. He was beloved by all of us who share the same obsession with this incredible game.

If you create fantasy football content today, you can thank Tags. I doubt I would be even a sliver of the host I am on Chalk Blocked without emulating his wit, professionalism, and knowledge. He belongs on our Mount Rushmore. “Heroes get remembered. Legends never die.” Live on in paradise and rest easy, Tags. We will cherish your family and give them whatever they need on this earth. We owe that to you after what you gave us while you were here.

Bo’s Lineup

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – SEPTEMBER 19: Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears runs against the Cincinnati Bengals at Soldier Field on September 19, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Bengals 20-17. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

QB – Justin Fields – Chicago Bears – $5,200

It is a little risky to play a rookie quarterback in his debut, but this is no ordinary rookie. I predicted Fields to be Offensive Rookie of the Year and that campaign starts this Sunday. If the scoring in this game pops off, we could see that 300-yard passing and 100-yard rushing talent that the young Buckeye possesses. He’s also never going to be a better value again.

RB – Austin Ekeler – LA Chargers – $7,200

Full disclosure: I know that we’re matching both running backs this week. We shared lineups earlier today and we hold a lot of the same opinions. Ekeler is primed to be a major contributor in a shootout game with the Chiefs. He scored 22.5 points last week without a touchdown, for goodness sake!

RB – DeAndre Swift – Detroit Lions – $5,800

Nimble and I are both super high on Swift this week against the Ravens. His salary is much too low to not play him with his PPR volume. He also has the upside you want in multipliers and tournaments.

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 19: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills takes the field prior to the game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on September 19, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

WR – Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills – $7,600

Is it just me or is nobody talking about Diggs this season? I guess since he only scored a pedestrian 16 points in each of the first two games, we’ve filed him away for a rainy day. With how poorly the Washington cornerbacks have played, Josh Allen will likely be peppering the elite Terrapin with targets on Sunday. I’m ready for his reminder game.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $6,800

Is it just me or is everyone talking about Kupp this season? The WR1 in fantasy football so far has apparently fused his brain with Matthew Stafford’s and they are now an unstoppable force. The Bucs defense is exploitable through the air, especially from the slot. Kupp is going to surf an avalanche of targets in this game.

TAMPA, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 09: Antonio Brown #81 and Chris Godwin #14 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrate Brown’s touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium on September 09, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

WR – Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,100

I have Godwin rostered everywhere this week in DFS. I feel so strongly about this play that I think I’ll name my favorite Sea Monkey “Chris.” Don’t let Chris down this week, okay Chris?

TE – Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons – $4,900

I’m such a homer. I painted myself into the Pitts corner, climbed up the tallest ladder, and shouted through a megaphone that he was going to produce elite numbers from the jump. I guess a watched pot never boils, so I’ll just plug him into every lineup until the moment arrives. Then, we can party.

FLEX – Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears – $4,300

Starting Sunday, the world will fall in love with this stack. I just picture the Browns pass rush flushing Fields from the pocket, where he buys an extra second for the speedy kid from Tulane to get absolutely wide open down the field. Touchdown Bears! Andy Dalton’s cheeks redden to the point where his face, hair, and Chicago “C” are monochromatic.

DST – Cincinnati Bengals – $2,100

I don’t know. They haven’t been that bad. The defensive line has an advantage over the Steelers’ offensive line. Pressure on Big Ben, no Diontae to force-feed. JuJu runs the same five-yard hitch every play and Claypool is not yet an alpha. This could be great, or it could be a nothing burger.

Celebrating Mike Tagliere

Fantasy Football has taken a hit today. Mike Tagliere, long-time Fantasy Pros fantasy football writer, podcaster, grinder passed away today after a battle with COVID-19. The fantasy community loved Mike. He was smart and thoughtful and he loved football. He worked like a man possessed each week breaking down all the matchups, creating a dossier outlining all the games. It was just tremendous, just like he was.

I’m new to the world of fantasy football content producing, but I’ve been a fan of Mike’s for years and even credited him as one of my inspirations in my very first blog post ever two years ago. I am grateful that I got to enjoy Tags doing what he enjoyed and won’t soon forget the sound of his voice breaking down a slate. This week is for you Tags. We love you and will miss you brother.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 19: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens dives into the end zone for a touchdown past the tackle of Michael Danna #51 of the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium on September 19, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

QB – Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens – $7,800

Lamar Jackson has the highest projected Week 3 ceiling out of any quarterback according to RuntheSims.com. The Ravens quarterback is averaging over 28 DraftKings points per game, rushing for close to 200 yards and passing for over 440 in the first two weeks. Lamar’s defense is down most of its starting defensive front, which means this game has the potential to be a high-scoring shootout. Lamar has a solid floor and TONS of ceiling. Bo is gonna be cursing him all day long. 

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 19: Austin Ekeler #30 of the Los Angeles Chargers runs with the ball during a 20-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys at SoFi Stadium on September 19, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

RB – Austin Ekeler – LA Chargers– $7,200  

Austin Ekeler has a juicy matchup in Week 3. He’s facing the 29th ranked Kansas City Chiefs defense that gives up 31.6 points to running backs per game. Vegas has this game slated for a 54.5 point shootout. After being targeted zero times in Week 1, Ekeler rebounded with nine receptions for 61 yards in Week 2. I expect Ekeler to continue to see both rushing and pass-catching volume against the Chiefs. Ekeler has yet to see the end zone this season, but that will change this week, as he’s a prime candidate to score at least once.

RB – D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions – $5,800

D’Andre Swift is averaging over 18 DraftKings points per game this season after scoring over 20 DraftKings points only three times last year. This week he has a chance to make it two out of his last three with a strong performance against a weakened Ravens squad. His PPR upside provides a strong floor with a high ceiling. The Ravens are down a defensive line, which should aid Swift around the goal line. The smart money is on Swift this week. 

WR – Mecole Hardman – Kansas City Chiefs – $3,900

The Vegas OVER/UNDER is 54.5 points. Mecole hasn’t had a breakout performance, but he’s been targeted 11 times, second behind only Tyreek Hill for wide receivers. I expect the LA Chargers to spend their time bracketing Hill, leaving Mecole in single coverage. His value is hard to ignore this week priced below $4,000. He’s a sneaky Cash play that I hope hits big. 

DETROIT, MI – OCTOBER 28: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks his touchdown catch against the Detroit Lions during the second quarter at Ford Field on October 28, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

WR – Tyler Lockett  – Seattle Seahawks – $7,400

Tyler Lockett has been DraftKings gold the first two weeks of the season!! This week, he’s only priced up $200, which makes him a tremendous upside play. What’s even better is that he’s currently only being rostered on 9.6% of GPP builds according to OccupyFantasy.com. Lockett and Metcalf are facing a Minnesota Vikings defense that has given up 107 fantasy points to wide receivers through the first two weeks.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $6,800

Cooper Kupp is the number one scoring wide receiver on DraftKings, just like we all predicted. This week he is only priced up $800 and it’s completely crazy that he’s priced under $7,500. This week he faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ secondary that has given up 110 fantasy points to wide receivers through two weeks. Kupp is a lock for 20 points this week, which makes him my number one Cash play. 

Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson (88) celebrates his touchdown with offensive guard Frank Ragnow (77) during the first half of an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers in Detroit, Michigan USA, on Sunday, September 12, 2021. (Photo by Jorge Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

TE – T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions – $5,200

T.J. Hockenson is a monster! He’s second in targets to only Darren Waller and is averaging over 23 DraftKings points per game. This week he faces a depleted Ravens defense that will be missing most of its starting front and a few linebackers. Huge advantage for Hockenson and Jared Goff. I expect Hockenson to score 20 plus points this week and come close to hitting the 4x.

WR – K.J. Osborn – Minnesota Vikings – $3,500

K.J. Osborn has been a revelation through the first two games of the NFL season. He is currently the WR2 on the Minnesota Vikings, outproducing second-year star Justin Jefferson in the process. I don’t expect this trend to continue all season, but Osborn is a great value given the Vikings need to pass the football and the other dynamic weapons creating mismatches. He’s a great low-price play in Cash this week. 

DST – Cincinnati Bengals  – $2,100

Paying down for defense is my Cash and GPP strategy all season. Big Ben has not looked himself this season and without his best weapon in Diontae Johnson missing this week due to a knee injury, I’m rolling the dice this week that the Bengals can get home and sack Big Ben a few times, possibly turning him over.  

Become a Patron!

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

By Scott Simpson

Welcome to NFL Week 3! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon. All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free account today!!

Priced Up – Quarterback

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 19: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens dives into the end zone for a touchdown past the tackle of Michael Danna #51 of the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium on September 19, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – $7,800 

Lamar Jackson has the highest projected Week 3 ceiling out of any quarterback according to RuntheSims.com. The Ravens quarterback is averaging over 28 DraftKings points per game, rushing for close to 200 yards and passing for over 440 in the first two weeks. Lamar is facing a Detroit Lions defense that hasn’t faced a rushing quarterback since Kyler Murray in Week 3 last season. To say they are rusty would be insensitive to rust.

The Lions are in way over their heads in this matchup. My expectation is that Lamar rushes for over 100 yards and passes for over 200. Breaking the slate all depends on him finding the end zone on his feet. I expect at least one rushing touchdown, the second could just be the nuts.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – $6,400

If it’s not broke, well you know the rest, ride it to paydirt!! That’s the plan this week with Matthew Stafford, who faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has surrendered the 4th most passing yards (703) so far this season. The Vegas books set the total at 54 points and the betting public raised it up to 56.

The expectations are for a shootout in Los Angeles this Sunday. Stafford is primed to throw the football 40 plus times in this game. Double stacking Stafford with Kupp or Woods might be a sneaky way to create some leverage on your GPP field.

Value – Quarterback

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions – $5,200

The Baltimore Ravens are missing most of their starting offensive line. That’s bad for a Ravens defense that was already giving up 25.5 fantasy points per game. Jared Goff has been tremendous this year, ranking 8th with 26.7 fantasy points per game. Goff hitting 6x in this matchup is not out of the question. He’s the best paydown quarterback on the slate this week.

Priced Up – Running Back

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 19: Austin Ekeler #30 of the Los Angeles Chargers runs with the ball during a 20-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys at SoFi Stadium on September 19, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers – $7,200

Austin Ekeler has a juicy matchup in Week 3. He’s facing the 29th ranked Kansas City Chiefs defense that gives up 31.6 points to running backs per game. Vegas has this game slated for a 54.5 point shootout. After being targeted zero times in Week 1, Ekeler rebounded with nine receptions for 61 yards in Week 2. I expect Ekeler to continue to see both rushing and pass-catching volume against the Chiefs. Ekeler has yet to see the end zone this season, but that will change this week, as he’s a prime candidate to score at least once.

Become a Patron!

Mid-Range – Running Back

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions – $5,800

Despite D’Andre Swift’s perpetual “Questionable” injury diagnosis, he’s played well when given the opportunity, averaging over 18 DraftKings points per game this season. Swift eye’s probably lit up when he heard the news that most of the Ravens starting defensive line will miss this game due to NFL COVID-19 protocols.

Swift scored over 20 DraftKings points only three times last year. This week he has a chance to make it two out of his last three with a strong performance against a weakened Ravens squad. All GPP systems are cleared for a monster performance out of Swift.

Value – Running Back

James White, New England Patriots – $4,900 

James White is good, even without Tom Brady. This is good news to know while there is still money to be made with his price depressed below 5K. White is the perfect comfort blanket for rookie quarterback Mac Jones, already connecting on 12 of 13 passes for 94 yards.

The Saints are stout against the run but have shown susceptibility against pass-catching backs, giving up 8 catches for 85 yards so far this season. Look for the Patriots to play small football this week, keeping the game in front of Mac and in White’s hands.

Priced Up – Wide Receiver 

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 9: Wide receiver Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates after scoring a fourth-quarter touchdown under coverage by defensive back Justin Simmons #31 of the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on September 9, 2018, in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Tyler Locket, Seattle Seahawks – $7,400

Tyler Lockett has been DraftKings gold the first two weeks of the season!! This week, he’s only priced up $200, which makes him a tremendous upside play. What’s even better is that he’s currently only being rostered on 9.6% of GPP builds according to OccupyFantasy.com. Lockett and Metcalf are facing a Minnesota Vikings defense that has given up 107 fantasy points to wide receivers through the first two weeks.

Lockett is the truth my guy @MattHarmon has been preaching for a while now.

I’m riding Lockett until he runs cold and there is no indication that it’s happening this week against a plush Viking’s secondary. Lockett and Load this week!

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver 

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants – $5,900

According to PFF, Sterling Shepard has a top 8 cornerback matchup with week. Through the first two games, he’s clearly been Daniel Jones’s preferred target, hauling in 16 of 19 targets for over 200 yards and a touchdown. The Atlanta secondary has already given up five touchdowns to wide receivers and I expect that trend to continue this week. Shepard is averaging 22 points per game, a total I could see him eclipsing. A GPP stack with Jones isn’t a terrible idea either, just saying.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Marvin Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars – $4,900

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars offense’s lone bright spot this season has been free agent Marvin Jones. Jones is leading the team in targets, receptions, touchdowns, and DraftKings points. He’s currently priced $400 less than D.J. Chark, who only has four catches on 16 targets.

My Chalk Blocked cohost Bo McBrayer has gone on record that he wants nothing to do this Jones, but at $4,900 find me another wide receiver who has two touchdown upside in a game we know he will be targeted close to 10 times. Jones is a perfect low-risk, high-reward play this week against an Arizona secondary that just gave up three scores to Kirk Cousins last week.

Priced Up – Tight End 

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – $8,200

Through the first two games of the season, Travis Kelce has been Travis Kelce. He’s leading all tight ends in fantasy points, averaging 26.3 points per game. This week Kelce will be matched up with Kyzir White, who PFF gives him the highest graded advantage of the week. If you are paying up for Kelce, this gives me confidence that he can score 20 plus points.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson (88) celebrates his touchdown with offensive guard Frank Ragnow (77) during the first half of an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers in Detroit, Michigan USA, on Sunday, September 12, 2021. (Photo by Jorge Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions – $5,200  

T.J. Hockenson is a monster! He’s second in targets to only Darren Waller and is averaging over 23 DraftKings points per game. This week he faces a depleted Ravens defense that will be missing most of its starting front and a few linebackers. Huge advantage for Hockenson and Jared Goff. I expect Hockenson to score 20 plus points this week and come close to hitting the 4x.

Value – Tight End 

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – $4,900

Kyle Pitts is going to break out. The question is when. The answer is this week. Russell Gage is OUT for week 3, which means Pitts could be called on more in the middle of the field. I’m projecting Pitts for 7 catches for 65 yards and a touchdown for 19.5 fantasy points. against the Giants. Pitts is a great priced-down option this week if you are looking for upside and don’t want to pay up for Kelce or Waller.

Become a Patron!

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Down a Peg

Human beings often blur the line between pride and ego. I would love for someone to proclaim that I am the greatest football writer in existence, but it’s off-putting for those words to come from me. Someone on social media would likely have a clever way of exclaiming the opposite. Humble pie is lukewarm and honest, restraining one’s self of the indulgence of a buttery crust and sugary lattice.

I am incredibly proud of the person I have fought a daily internal battle to become. When others enjoy my work, it sends me into a mindless elation that can’t be retrieved from the stratosphere.

Perfection is unattainable. Greatness is bestowed by others. Applaud yourself privately. There is always someone else working harder and doing the same thing better. Now I’m just listing things my dad would repeat on our trips out of town into the hills every other weekend. His favorite was, “practice, practice, practice.” “Practice” meant golf, baseball, riflery, archery, singing, and cooking.

He wasn’t present for a lot of it after the divorce, but every other weekend was practice on the ranch. He was pushing me to get better at my interests. When the distance and resentment between us grew, I pushed myself with his voice echoing in my subconscious. This epiphany just now poured out into a paragraph. He was there. Here’s one more from Joe the milkman. “You’re going to lose…a lot…at everything. Learn from it.”

My dad didn’t prepare me for losing to my nimble friend, Scott last week. My first head-to-head loss since the Trump administration still has me reeling. What if I’m not the cash game master anymore? Instead of freefalling into a depression, I took a step back and extracted a lesson from the dismay. My other cash games were victorious, so I’m sure the fear I’ve been instilling within Scott is still alive and well (but weakened like Voldemort). We still have a bankroll to build. Let’s hop to it, starting a peg down.

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 09: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills waits to take the field prior to an AFC Wild Card playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts at Bills Stadium on January 09, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)

Week 3 DFS Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT***SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

KYLER MURRAY: @ JACKSONVILLE ($8,300)

There just simply isn’t a reason to fade this offense, especially Murray. He is off to a similarly torrid start as he was in 2020. Don’t let the salary daunt you, this is still a bargain for a guy cracking 30 DK points every week with ease.

JOSH ALLEN: VS WASHINGTON ($7,000)***

Allen is also a wonderful tournament play this week as an undervalued quarterback with limitless upside. Washington hasn’t been a world-beating defense thus far.

JUSTIN HERBERT: @ KANSAS CITY ($6,500)

Don’t let the box score tell you that Herbert was bad against Dallas. He was razor sharp again, only to have two touchdown passes taken off the board from penalties. I would be absolutely shocked if this game doesn’t shoot out and neither team has a reliable running game. Herbert is an easy cash play.

MATTHEW STAFFORD: VS TAMPA BAY ($6,400)

Yes, the Bucs have a good defense…up front. They are nearly impossible to run on, but have been gouged through the air. The slot position has exploited a weak Tampa secondary so far. This is notable because Sean McVay’s offense operates with all of their wide receivers lining up inside the numbers most of the time. Darrell Henderson is banged up, so we might see the Rams take the same approach as the Cowboys and just air it out 50 times.

DANIEL JONES: VS ATLANTA ($5,800)

Who else knew that Danny Dimes knew the Konami Code? After 95 rushing yards against Washington, DFS players simply can’t ignore the embattled signal caller against an atrocious Falcons defense.

JUSTIN FIELDS: @ CLEVELAND ($5,200)

Matt Nagy probably still wants to roll Andy Dalton out there like the Black Knight from Monty Python, but it’s finally Justin Fields SZN. The bargain salary will likely make Fields too chalky for GPP. In cash, he’s an incredible value with extreme rushing upside. Look out for his passing ability to also shine in his debut. This will commence a massive fantasy season for the rookie Buckeye.

Running Backs

DERRICK HENRY: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($8,600)

There aren’t many players in the NFL that get you fired up about football more than Derrick Henry. Normally, I’d give him a fade after more than 40 touches and facing a tough Indy front. What makes this week different is my correct prediction that King Henry is now officially a part of the Titans passing game. Spend up and cash out.

AUSTIN EKELER: @ KANSAS CITY ($7,200)

Shootouts favor running backs with receiving upside. Ekeler is one of the best and still stays relatively affordable on DK, where he is a PPR cheat code. I’m expecting close to 20 touches here and if he can find the end zone again, we’re cooking with peanut oil.

JONATHAN TAYLOR: @ TENNESSEE ($6,700)***

This salary is a travesty. The Titans defense is horrible at all three levels and JT is averaging nearly 20 touches per game so far. There is no reason at all to ignore such a transcendent player in a smash spot at a crazy value.

SAQUON BARKLEY: VS ATLANTA ($6,500)

If you’ve ever taken an IQ test, there are tons of questions that judge one’s ability to detect and follow patterns. Barkley’s pattern is ascending. I hold the minority opinion that Saquon looked incredibly sharp last week. He now will have 10 days rest to ramp up to a Falcons team that lacks any defensive talent to speak of.

DEANDRE SWIFT: VS BALTIMORE ($5,800)

Pass-catching running backs. Roster them in cash. Receptions are ultra-valuable in PPR, especially when the objective is to outscore half of your opponents. Swift might be called upon even more in garbage time with Detroit’s garbage defense against Lamar Jackson et al. Swift is also due for a gargantuan slate-breaking game. Let’s see if it occurs on Sunday.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS: VS NY JETS ($4,900)

Stubbornness is a trait that I withhold for players I truly believe in. Williams is another player trending toward a breakout game. Last week, we saw another 50/50 split between him and Melvin Gordon. The young Tar Heel looked amazing again in contrast with the washed up Gordon. Follow the pattern and increasing volume. The suspense is killing me, but I’ll keep plugging Javonte into this article.

CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE: VS LA CHARGERS ($4,800)

Everyone hates CEH now. He certainly didn’t look spectacular against Baltimore, but it is worrisome that Andy Reid doesn’t trust him to be a lead back. His costly fumble really stuck in my craw, but I won’t fade a back with good hands in a shootout game, especially when his salary will quickly ascend from here.

NYHEIM HINES: @ TENNESSEE ($4,600)

I already mentioned how abysmal the Titans defense is. JT is certainly the bellcow, but Hines has carved a nice role in the playbook and his volume and upside are game flow-dependent. This is another opportunity, with an ailing Carson Wentz, for Indy to rely on YAC to get the job done.

Wide Receivers

STEFON DIGGS: VS WASHINGTON ($7,600)***

If you’re going to deploy Josh Allen, you certainly must pair him with Diggs. Allen’s funnel to Diggs is like a vacuum; a black hole of targets. Washington has been lit up through the air by lesser opponents already. The league will be on notice about the Bills again after this game.

COOPER KUPP: VS TAMPA BAY ($6,800)

Lock him in again. The connection between Kupp and Matthew Stafford is truly special already. The WR1 in fantasy is still under $7k, making for Benadryl-level chalk in GPP, but proceed with reckless abandon in cash. Kupp is just getting started.

KEENAN ALLEN: @ KANSAS CITY ($6,600)

Both Chargers stud receivers are priced well below the volume they garner every week. The matchup is tough against good Chiefs corners. That should not scare you off of Allen’s prowess from the slot, where Herbert seems to have a nice groove going already. Keenan is sure to see plenty of looks this week.

MIKE WILLIAMS: @ KANSAS CITY ($6,400)

My preseason skepticism at Williams’ ability to take over as the Chargers’ X receiver has fully transformed into an infatuation with the marriage between his new volume and old upside. It’s the power couple of the year and at $6,400, I’m gobbling it up like free pizza.

ALLEN ROBINSON: @ CLEVELAND ($6,200)

The problem with ARob in 2021 was Andy Dalton. No bones about it. Darnell Mooney was the one scooping up more targets. Dalton is a great human being, but nowhere near the football player that Justin Fields is. I look for a breakout from Robinson this week as the rookie’s go-to guy. There will be folks who also forgot how amazing ARob is, making him a nice GPP play too.

CHRIS GODWIN: @ LA RAMS ($6,100)

“God ChrisWIN” is another guy I’ll be rostering in all DFS formats. The Rams will likely have Jalen Ramsey on Mike Evans and we’re still awaiting whether Antonio Brown will be activated from the COVID-19 list ahead of the game. In any case, Godwin operates from the slot and is poised to explode against this defense. I’m baffled that his salary is so low.

STERLING SHEPARD: VS ATLANTA ($5,900)

I’m tempering my Shepard stance today, after my initial excitement to plug him into cash lineups versus Atlanta. Evan Engram is slated to return, which gives Daniel Jones another short-range weapon. This potential dip in targets is a little worrisome, but Engram is such a bad player that we might see him fade away and make way for the Shep Show. He’s clearly the best receiver on this team.

MARVIN JONES JR*: @ ARIZONA ($4,900)

My secret ingredient this week isn’t much of a secret to others as much as he is a guy I hardly ever feel like putting into play. This is the spot. Sub-$5k against a pair of cornerbacks that are well below average is a really shiny beacon. Defense will be optional in this game and neither squad figures to establish the run in fear of falling behind. Jones will fold in nicely as a WR3 or Flex in a lot of cash builds.

TYLER BOYD: @ PITTSBURGH ($4,700)

I just talked about how vanilla Boyd is as a cash play last week. He, Tee Higgins, and Jamarr Chase were all viable in cash last week. Now, with Higgins trending toward not playing, I’ll lean into Boyd as a high-volume target hog that faces a secondary playing much worse than expected so far.

KJ OSBORN: VS SEATTLE ($3,500)

Osborn has been a pleasant surprise this season. I have dubbed him this year’s Travis Fulgham. He has garnered 14 targets and plenty of production so far in Irv Smith’s absence as the third receiving option behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Seahawks secondary has been pretty good so far, so I’ll fade the studs and go after the young slot guy until he turns into a pumpkin.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – DECEMBER 06: Evan Engram #88 of the New York Giants is tackled by Jamal Adams #33 of the Seattle Seahawks in the fourth quarter at Lumen Field on December 06, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

TIGHT ENDS

TRAVIS KELCE: VS LA CHARGERS ($8,200)

No-brainer. Moving on. Actually, this is a very tough matchup against Derwin James and the Chargers. You just don’t fade the best in the game…ever. He will never not be a value at the position.

DARREN WALLER: VS MIAMI ($7,600)

You just don’t fade the best in the game…ever. Miami has been tough on defense, but will be without Tua Tagovailoa for this one. Vegas and Derek Carr are scorching hot. Waller will continue to be the focal point of the playbook and always brings upside with his immense volume.

TJ HOCKENSON: VS BALTIMORE ($5,200)***

Volume is king in cash games. So far, Hock has been targeted 20 times in two games. The salary is nice and disrespectful, especially considering Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL. Hock is a lock, real talk.

KYLE PITTS: @ NY GIANTS ($4,900)

Another absolute lock is the young Gator, Pitts. The pattern is in his favor, with his usage on the rise. The Giants defense has been very disappointing to date. James Bradberry will likely shadow Calvin Ridley, so Matt Ryan will hopefully see the 6’6″ unicorn streaking down the field wide open all game.

NOAH FANT: VS NY JETS ($4,800)

Athletes in space are so much fun. Not outer space, but it does appear that Fant may be from another planet. The Jets’ roster contains exactly zero defensive backs who are good in coverage, so all of the Broncos receivers should eat. I’ll lock in on the one who is priced reasonably.

EVAN ENGRAM: VS ATLANTA ($3,600)

As much as I think Engram is a trash player with stone hands (I call him Old Stone Hands), he is a tight end in a Jason Garrett offense. At a bargain salary, I’ll be fair and assume he won’t drop all of his targets. I’d be happy to get 10 DK points out of him if I can only fit a sub-$4k salary in at tight end.

Clash of the Beards and Bellies- Week 2

Winded From Victory Laps

“Don’t get too cute; it’s unbecoming of you” is what I would have offered to poor Nimble as advice last week before lock…if I wasn’t in bloodthirsty competition mode. In retrospect, he can set his lineups whichever way he chooses. He’s a grown man. I don’t share the same chilling regret he feels after yet another paddling from his so-called friend, so I can’t relate to the reasoning behind him shaving off his manhood in a Britney-esque cry for help.

In my camp, we’re on to Cincinnati. I won’t rest on my laurels, I’ll put them in a nice tomato bisque (laurels are Bay Leaves). Week 2 offers a unique mixture of games with sneaky upside. Scott was fortunate he didn’t get my other head-to-head lineup (that would have been really embarrassing). I ravaged him with rookies in Week 1, so naturally, I have zero rookies in the lineup come Sunday. Boy, I hope when I drop 200 on him this week it doesn’t affect our friendship.

Become a Patron!

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks – $7,500

Mr. Unlimited is as cringe-worthy as it gets, but his first performance with Shane Waldron calling the plays was far from limited. I get it now. Russ has the ability to drop bombs on anyone. Why wouldn’t he do it to such a horrible Titans defense?

RB – Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns – $7,800

Chubb is arguably the league’s most complete running back. He put on a show in Week 1 against the reigning AFC champion Chiefs. Wouldn’t it be fun to see him go for 200 yards against Houston? I think it would be.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears –$6,100

Monty is only $6,100 this week. The utter disrespect is palpable here, and I’ll be taking it all the way to the bank (or under the mattress). I think DK missed the part where the Bears are facing the Bengals this week.

WR – Keenan Allen – LA Chargers – $7,000

One of the league’s best route runners will have more time to get open than my wife spends deciding what to order for dinner. No Tank Lawrence or Randy Gregory and a youthful secondary means Dallas will have no defensive answers for this Chargers offense. Keenan will smash.

WR – KJ Hamler – Denver Broncos – $3,800

Everyone and their Aunt May is picking up Tim Patrick this week, but I’ll be the one hoping Teddy B unleashes some bombs to the Nittany Lion, Hamler, and his 4.39 speed.

WR – Hunter Renfrow – LV Raiders – $3,600

What surprised me on Monday night was how often Derek Carr looked for Renfrow as a hot read when he was under duress. This is a rare floor play for me, but the price is low enough for a nice complementary contribution from the Clemson grad.

TE – Noah Fant – Denver Broncos – $4,200

Hey everyone, the Broncos play the Jaguars this week! That means you should fully attack them with everyone possible. I’m still wiping away my tears from the Jeudy injury, but I’ll cope with ice cream and Fant putting a nail in Urban Meyer’s coffin.

Flex – DK Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks – $7,600

You thought I was going this light at wide receiver, when, in reality, I like to drop a nuke in the flex spot to rattle Scott’s cage. Last week, it was Dalvin Cook. This week, I’m completing the Seahawks stack in hopes that he goes ape shit crazy on this Titans defense.

DSTPhiladelphia Eagles – $2,400

It’s just a hunch, but I don’t think the 49ers’ offense will look as lethal as they did in Detroit last Sunday. This Eagles front gets after it, and Jimmy Garoppolo has zero poise if his first read is covered. I’m spending down a bit, hoping for sacks and maybe a couple turnovers.

Insufferabo

NFL Week 1 was a DFS disappointment. I lost to Bo by 6.1 points in a low-scoring inaugural “Clash of the Beards and Bellies” that saw neither of us score more than 122 points. Bo is already turning “insufferabo” (shout out Scott Rinear, AKA @MunderDifflinFF on Twitter) acting like this is the first time he’s ever won before. He’s been caught recording celebration videos on multiple platforms including the Sports Me App, making his underlings at work call him “Kylo Bo”, and wearing a homemade “I’m a Winner” cape around the neighborhood. If I start the season 0-2, I’m sure he’ll do something insane like carve “Legend” in his chest. No one wants to see that. So I decided that I will beat Bo this week, just to spare us all the pain of watching his awkward celebrations. Here’s the lineup that’s gonna take him out back to the woodshed and beat the pants off of him in Week 2.

LANDOVER, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 12: Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers makes a pass against the Washington Football Team at FedExField on September 12, 2021 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

QB – Justin Herbert – LA Chargers – $6,700

Justin Herbert looked like a chiseled veteran last week, rolling into Washington and dominating the Football team. This week he faces a much less vaunted Dallas Cowboys defense that just lost Demarcus Lawrence for a few months. Herbert’s favorite target in Week 1 was Keenan Allen, who caught nine of 13 passes for 100 yards. Dallas gave up 56.3 fantasy points last week to wide receivers. Allen is gonna feast! He’s a lock for Cash and has GPP upside as well.

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – SEPTEMBER 12: Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Cleveland Browns hands off to running back Nick Chubb #24 during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

RB – Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns $7,800

Nick Chubb might be the best Cash RB play on the whole DraftKings Main Slate this week. PFF gives the Browns a 138% run blocking advantage over the Houston Texans’ porous rush defense. I can still remember David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor rushing all over the Texans to end the 2020 season.

I expect Chubb to rush for over 150 yards and at least one score, with the potential for another. Currently, RuntheSims.com ranks Chubb as a top-five running back with a ceiling above 30 fantasy points. If you are looking for a high-priced running with huge upside and a strong floor, Chubb is your man.

RB Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals – $4,900

The Arizona Cardinals offense looked explosive in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans. Chase Edmonds racked up over 100 rushing and receiving yards on 16 total touches for 14.6 fantasy points. This week he faces the Minnesota Vikings who are primed to be bludgeoned by Kyle Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. Edmonds has PPR upside and a solid floor at $4,900.

WR – Keenan Allen – LA Chargers– $7,000

Keenan Allen is a stud! He was caught nine passes for 100 yards and was the second-best player to Justin Herbert, on Sunday. This week he faces the Dallas Cowboys defense who gave up over 50 points to wide receivers last week. He’s primed to break the slate in GPP and deliver for Cash Games as well.

TAMPA, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 09: Antonio Brown #81 and Chris Godwin #14 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrate Brown’s touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium on September 09, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

WR – Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,600

According to PFF, Chris Godwin has a top 5 cornerback matchup with week and RuntheSims.com projects Godwin with the highest ceiling for Buc’s wide receivers. Brady targeted Godwin 14 times last Thursday night against the Cowboys. Godwin scored 27.5 points and projects to score 20 plus again this week against a Falcons team that gave up two touchdowns to Eagle’s wide receivers in Week 1. Look for Godwin to continue to lead the Buccaneers in targets and be a GPP machine this week.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $6,000

Matthew Stafford looked amazing last week, passing for over 320 yards with three touchdowns. He peppered Cooper Kupp with 10 targets that Kupp turned into seven receptions for 108 yards and a score. The Colts’ defense wasn’t itself last week, getting carved up for four touchdowns by Russell Wilson. I expect that trend to continue this week with Kupp and the Rams passing attack.

TE – Noah Fant – Denver Broncos – $4,200

Last week Noah Fant ranked fourth in tight end targets with eight. This week he faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that couldn’t stop the Houston Tankings, I mean Texans. Fant will see plenty of volume, Teddy Bridgewater targeted tight ends on 36% of dropbacks last week. Fant has touchdown upside as well and is a smash in cash this week.

Flex – Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos – $4,400

Last week Javonte Williams carried the ball 14 times and caught his lone target for a total of 15 touches. Melvin Gordon had 11 carries and three receptions for 14 total touches. Gordon is priced up to $5,900. Both are good plays against a Jacksonville defense that looked more college than Pro thanks to Urban Meyer. I love Williams’ cheap touchdown upside this week, and his price is perfect.

DST – Philadephia Eagles – $2,400

The Eagles can get after the quarterback, sacking Matt Ryan three times last week, almost certainly leaving him for dead at one point. According to PFF, they have a positive 23% matchup advantage. If the 49ers are going to ve successful, it should be on the ground, where they have a 78% advantage per PFF. The Eagles should be able to keep this game close and hopefully, that means Jimmy G. is dropping back to pass the ball, which increases the chances he turns the ball over.

Become a Patron!

Nimble GPP: Plays to Get You Paid

By Scott Simpson

Priced Up – Quarterback

Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Welcome to NFL Week 1! Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value.” The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon. All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free account today!!

Play – Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – $8,200 

So I checked my notes from last week guys and apparently this Kyler Murray fella is good at the football. And by “good” I obviously mean that he’s a human joystick/touchdown machine extraordinaire. His five total touchdowns included one rushing and four through the air, two to both DeAndre Hopkins and Christain Kirk respectively.

This week Murray will be facing a Minnesota Vikings’ defense that is trying desperately to be better than dreadful like last year, but the results from Week 1 were just more of the same. Currently, the Vikings are projected to give up 27.75 points to the Cardinals according to the Vegas sharps.

Murray has touchdown rushing upside every time he touches the ball in the red zone. RuntheSims.com currently projects Murray for the second-highest ceiling this week, only behind Tom Brady. I can’t wait to see the frustrated sideline cutaways of the Angry Keebler Elf turned Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer as Murray torches his defense this week.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 12: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – $6,400

Matthew Stafford finally has a head coach who isn’t a clown (insert any picture of Matt Patricia here) and it shows. Stafford came out of the gate on absolute fire, tossing for 321 yards and three scores against the Chicago Bears. Stafford has a stable of wide receivers this year (Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson) and the versatile Darrell Henderson catching balls out the backfield.

Last week the Indianapolis Colts gave up four passing touchdowns to Russell Wilson and company. Look for the LA Rams to step on the gas peddle in this away matchup, which they are favored in by 3.5 points. Paying down for Stafford and stacking him with Kupp or Woods opens up your salary for high upside players like Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffery. Stafford might be my highest rostered quarterback at only $6,400.

Value – Quarterback

Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos – $5,400

Teddy Bridgewater looked good last week. Sure it was the terrible Dave Gettleman helmed New Giants, but now he faces the even more terribler, if that’s even a word, oh it’s not, Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense who just made Tyrod Taylor look like Deshaun Watson. Losing Jerry Jeudy is a blow, but Tim Patrick is the best 4th string wide receiver in all of football, so I don’t expect him to miss a beat. As a matter of fact, I expect him to 4x and score over 23 points with week.  

Priced Up – Running Back

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – SEPTEMBER 12: Nick Chubb #24 of the Cleveland Browns scores a touchdown during the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – $7,800

Nick Chubb might be the best Cash RB play on the whole DraftKings Main Slate this week. PFF gives the Browns a 138% run blocking advantage over the Houston Texans’ porous rush defense. I can still remember David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor rushing all over the Texans to end the 2020 season.

I expect Chubb to rush for over 150 yards and at least one score, with the potential for another. Currently, RuntheSims.com ranks Chubb as a top-five running back with a ceiling above 30 fantasy points. If you are looking for a high-priced running with huge upside and a strong floor, Chubb is your man.

Become a Patron!

Mid-Range – Running Back

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks – $6,100

Chris Carson ran well in Week 1, rushing for 91 yards and averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He hauled in all three of his targets but failed to find the end-zone and only scored 13.7 DraftKings’ points. This week, the Tennessee Titans roll into town fresh off their home opener/ass whooping at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals.

According to RuntheSims.com, Carson has one of the best points per dollar values at 3.64 this week. The Titans gave up 159 total yards to running backs last week to Cardinal running backs. Look for Carson to do damage as a pass receiver as well as a rusher in this matchup and score close to 20 DraftKings points, making him a smash in Cash and GPP play as well.

Value – Running Back

Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers – $5,000 

Elijah Mitchell is hot! He was the most sought-after waiver wire claim heading into Week 2, My cohost at The Fantasy Millionaires spent 100% of his FAAB on him this week in our home league. The question is, will his initial success continue, or will Kyle Shanahan scuttle his launch into fantasy glory? I for one believe the latter this week.

Last week the 49ers’ opponent in Week 2, the Philadelphia Eagles, gave up 170 total combined yards and 25 fantasy points to running backs. Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson, to be exact. If those names don’t immediately ring a bell, it’s because they aren’t NFL starting-caliber running backs, so don’t beat yourself up about it. All indications point to Mitchell being featured in Week 2, which means he’s a low-priced GPP dart I want to have in my lineups.

Priced Up – Wide Receiver 

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 12: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills shows off his cleats prior to a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium on September 12, 2021, in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills – $7,700

Stefon Diggs balled out in Week 2 last year against the Miami Dolphins, scoring 32.3 DraftKings points and finishing as the second-highest scoring wide receiver, behind only Calvin Ridley by 0.6. Fast forward to Week 2 of this year and Diggs is coming off of a 13 target, nine catch performance against a stingy Steelers secondary. Diggs has the highest ceiling of any wide receivers this week and could very well be a slate breaker for those willing to spend up for him.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver 

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,600

According to PFF, Chris Godwin has a top 5 cornerback matchup with week and RuntheSims.com projects Godwin with the highest ceiling for Buc’s wide receivers. Brady targeted Godwin 14 times last Thursday night against the Cowboys. Godwin scored 27.5 points and projects to score 20 plus again this week against a Falcons team that gave up two touchdowns to Eagle’s wide receivers in Week 1. Look for Godwin to continue to lead the Buccaneers in targets and be a GPP machine this week.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins – $4,500

Will Fuller is suddenly out this week! Good news for Jaylen Waddle and his $4,500 price tag. Last week Waddle hauled in four receptions for 61 yards and a score. Waddle will once again be starting and should see plenty of volume given the projected negative game script Vegas is predicting. Waddle’s ceiling is 20 points, exactly the upside I’m looking for in a wide receiver in the $4,500 salary range.

Priced Up – Tight End 

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 13: Tight end Darren Waller #83 of the Las Vegas Raiders dives into the end zone to score a touchdown on a 10-yard pass play after spinning away from defensive back Chuck Clark #36 of the Baltimore Ravens in the fourth quarter of their game at Allegiant Stadium on September 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Raiders defeated the Ravens 33-27 in overtime. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders – $7,600

Darren Waller is a beast!! Last week he saw 19 targets. 19!!! Holy shit that’s a lot of targets. He’s obviously the focal point of the Raiders offense, who will be missing Josh Jacobs this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Even though PFF doesn’t particularly love his matchup against Steeler’s linebacker Devin Bush, I do. Waller has a seven-inch height advantage over Bush. Bush will need a step ladder to defend Waller this week. Waller is a GPP and Cash play all day.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $4,700  

The Atlanta Falcons already rank near the bottom of the league against the tight end position, giving up close to 20 points and a touchdown in Week 1. Rob Gronkowski, or Gronk to the kids, exploded in Week one for eight catches, 90 yards, and two touchdowns. Currently, Gronk and Tom Brady are tied for second all-time with 100 career touchdown connections. Only Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning have more with 114.

Gronk is priced up, but not enough. He’s set to smash his 3x and has a strong floor of close to 12 points according to RuntheSims.com projections. He’s a great Cash game play, but an even better GPP weapon to have in your arsenal. Look for Gronk to score around 18 fantasy points this week, almost hitting the 4x threshold.

Value – Tight End 

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos – $4,200

Noah Fant was the 5th most targeted tight end in Week 1, hauling in six of eight passes for 75 yards against the New York Giants. This week Fant faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that made the Houston Texans resemble a professional football team (which clearly they are not) last week. Fant has a tremendous ceiling this week and is a great value tight end at only $4,200.

Become a Patron!

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Key Ingredients

I’m a cook, not a chef. I did not attend culinary school, nor do I own or operate a professional kitchen. It’s merely semantics, at this point. Just as one is not a doctor without an M.D. or Ph.D, my path to prominence in the food landscape was not charted on a traditional map.

Going back to the moment I could see over the countertop of my grandpa’s kitchen island, I have been cooking. Someone who cooks also tastes everything. Thusly, I was introduced to “adult” things like coffee, wine, and whiskey at a younger age than most. My family put things in front of me every day. I remember pressure cooking a whole chicken when I was nine years old. Grandpa was floored at my level of interest in the techniques and science behind what we were putting together to feed the family.

Fantasy football, including DFS, shares a similar vein with cooking. Maybe that’s the allure. If technique is the method used in experimentation and application of science, it can also be assumed that there is room for nuance (art).

A successful DFS Cash build is that beautiful dance between art and science. Not only are the key ingredients there, but each one of them plays their own role in the symphonic harmony. How much salary you spend on each spot is the difference between a dollop, dash, or pinch. You might sneak a little something special in the pot and gaze upon your patrons with anticipation, hoping that they recognize it.

This week’s Hot Cash From the King of Spice pays homage to everyone in my family who molded me into what I am and will become. Going forward, my favorite cash players of the week will be marked with (***) to signify them as Key Ingredients, while one player each week will be italicized to signify them as a Secret Ingredient to a winning cash build. Bon appetite!

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – DECEMBER 13: Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks looks to throw the ball in the first quarter against the New York Jets at CenturyLink Field on December 13, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

Week 2 DFS Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

Quarterbacks

KYLER MURRAY: vs MINNESOTA ($8,200)

There isn’t a more electric player in the game today than K1, or as Christian Kirk has dubbed him, “Baby Yoda.” The Vikings looked every bit as mortal on defense as I expected last week against the Bengals. With the other high-priced quarterbacks in tougher matchups this week, I’ll take the red hot Murray and ride this amazing wave of points.

RUSSELL WILSON: vs TENNESSEE ($7,500)

Russ didn’t need to cook too much against Indy, but he surely did anyway against what was supposed to be a tough defense. Now facing one of Week 1’s worst defensive units, I just can’t get around fading him in any type of contest.

JUSTIN HERBERT: vs DALLAS ($6,700) ***

Talk about contrast! Herbert was pretty damn sharp last week in Washington. Now, he goes from navigating the pocket against a fearsome and hellacious pass rush to one that just lost its heartbeat. Dallas netted zero sacks last week and were picked apart like a rotisserie chicken at a potluck, even with DeMarcus Lawrence leading the charge. The Chargers figure to score at will this week, with Herbert as the benefactor.

JALEN HURTS: vs SAN FRANCISCO ($6,500)

You would think after his stellar performance against Atlanta on Sunday, that Hurts’ salary would have skyrocketed farther. Since it didn’t, and he goes against a 49ers defense that was gutted by Jared Goff down the stretch last week, I can’t help but play him in cash.

JOE BURROW: @ CHICAGO ($5,800)

The Bengals were surprisingly efficient against Minnesota, running the ball with great efficiency and limiting Burrow to 27 passing attempts. The Bears pass defense was eviscerated by Matthew Stafford last week, but still poses a challenge to the Bengals’ running game. Look for Burrow to easily crack 30 passing attempts and surpass 20 fantasy points in the process.

Running Backs

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY: vs NEW ORLEANS ($9,900)

The best player in fantasy football faces an incredible challenge in Week 1. The Saints are fresh off their dismantling of the Packers and kept Aaron Jones from producing anything meaningful for fantasy. Am I afraid the same will happen to CMC on Sunday? Absolutely not. The sheer volume of quality touches he receives every game is enough to be secure in plugging him into a cash lineup no matter what.

NICK CHUBB: vs HOUSTON ($7,800)***

This is an absolute dream matchup. Chubb diced up the Chiefs last week and now faces a Houston defense that wasn’t challenged at all in the running game last week. I’ll be playing Chubb in any format this week and he’s a key ingredient in a winning cash build.

AUSTIN EKELER: vs DALLAS ($7,300)

Ekeler did not receive a single passing target last week, eerily similar to Week 1 of last season. Washington was keying on the flats and put a spy on Ekeler the whole game. Even then, he was open. I fully expect Herbert to find his outlet valve much more this week against a poor Cowboys defense. Ekeler also figures to have success on the ground, with the news that Pro Bowl defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence is out with a broken foot.

NAJEE HARRIS: vs LAS VEGAS ($6,300)

Are you surprised to see this name on the list? You shouldn’t be. The rookie received every single running back touch last week against Buffalo. The Raiders pose much less beef up front than the Bills, who crowded the line of scrimmage and dared Big Ben to beat them over the top. Harris also looked better than his production, which gives me confidence that he will outperform his salary this week.

DAVID MONTGOMERY: vs CINCINNATI ($6,100)***

There were many puzzling salaries at the running back position for this week on DraftKings. Namely, Monty and Zeke. Since Monty has a juicier matchup and isn’t in as much of a timeshare, I’ll ride with the guy who gashed the Rams fearsome front and won me some money on the Showdown Slate in Week 1.

CHASE EDMONDS: vs MINNESOTA ($4,900)

High-quality touches give the edge to Edmonds over Conner for me on DK this week. Though you can probably start either one against the Vikings, Edmonds is the preferred option in PPR. Their salaries are both pretty nice this week.

NYHEIM HINES: vs LA RAMS ($4,700)

I have been stumping for Hines’ value all offseason. The fanfare around his RB15 finish in 2020 was long gone, back to him available as RB53 in drafts this summer. Of course, the entire Indy offense runs through its two running backs. This was reinstated in Week 1. Jonathan Taylor garnered 23 touches and Hines had 15, putting up 14.2 PPR points (right on his 2020 average). The Rams were not as stellar against the Bears running game as many hoped last week. Hines should pile up high-quality touches at a bargain again.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS*: @ JACKSONVILLE ($4,400)

I bet you didn’t predict who my secret ingredient player would be. The rookie out of North Carolina was simply okay last week against the Giants. He did out-touch breakout performer Melvin Gordon, whose 70-yard touchdown made him relevant. I predict more Javonte this week against a woeful Jags defense that (triple-checks notes) allowed three Texans running backs to be fantasy-relevant in Week 1. This one is ripe for the picking. My rookie RB2 is going to shine on Sunday.

Wide Receivers

DEANDRE HOPKINS: vs MINNESOTA ($8,000)

My pair of Cardinals was a big hit in cash games last week. The Vikings won’t offer much resistance on defense, especially when they struggled against the Bengals last week. I’m rolling a lot of my same plays back into this week, including the immense volume afforded to Nuk in the Air Raid.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON: @ ARIZONA ($7,400)

No, there’s not much reason to play both Vikings receivers in the same roster build, but I do see them as equally good for cash games. Look at it this way, in a larger field 50/50 or Head-to-Head, I might lean Jefferson with a tad more upside.

ADAM THIELEN: @ ARIZONA ($7,100)

Thielen is coming off a monstrous 30-point outing against the Bengals. Arizona generated a great deal of pressure on the Titans, but the Vikings line is arguably a better unit. If Minnesota can expose the Cardinals’ lack of talent at cornerback, Jefferson and Thielen will both feast again this week.

KEENAN ALLEN: vs DALLAS ($7,100)***

Keenan Allen is going to rip this defense apart. The Dallas pass rush is non-existent, especially with Tank Lawrence out of action. Herbert’s surgical precision and talent at the skill positions make this a great game to stack, even in a cash game. Allen and Chris Godwin are similar players, lest we forget last Thursday night.

CHRIS GODWIN: vs ATLANTA ($6,600)

The world champs have another cupcake defense to toy with to start their 2021 title defense. Devonta Smith operated in the slot most of Week 1 and made quick work of the Falcons secondary in his first professional outing. Godwin is a more polished and savvy version of the Slim Reaper and will be receiving his passes from the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Any questions?

DIONTAE JOHNSON: vs LAS VEGAS ($6,400)

I love that Diontae didn’t have the best game against Buffalo. His salary stayed well below what it will be following this game. The Raiders benefitted from a Ravens offense in disarray, whose X receiver was Sammy Freakin’ Watkins. Johnson also won’t have Tre White covering him. With 9-10 targets incoming, this is an ultra-strong play.

MIKE WILLIAMS: vs DALLAS ($6,100)

Did we mention that the Cowboys defense is falling apart? Although I will be deploying Williams in more GPP contests, it can’t be ignored that he excelled as the X receiver last week with 12 targets and 22.2 DK points. This gives me more confidence in his steady volume to combine with his flair for the spectacular, slate-breaking plays down the field.

COOPER KUPP: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($6,000)

This has to be a mistake, right? We just witnessed the Colts get roasted down the field by a great deep ball passer in Russell Wilson. Now, you’re telling me Matthew Stafford is rolling into Lucas Oil Stadium after dropping bombs on the Bears. I’m licking my chops here in all formats. Kupp is an easy cash value at this ridiculous salary.

TEE HIGGINS: @ CHICAGO ($5,400)

I just love playing Tee Higgins in cash games. He’s not Tyler Boyd, who many tab as the “safe floor” guy that the traditional cash player pines for. He’s my type of cash player. Only needing 16 DK points to smash value against an overmatched Bears secondary is a great feeling to have.

LAVISKA SHENAULT JR: vs DENVER ($4,900)

Let me get this straight. Shenault puts up 12.9 DK points on nine targets without scoring a touchdown and his salary went down $100? I’m looking around to make sure I’m not on a hidden camera prank show. Viska offers all the volume in this putrid and idiotic Urban Meyer scheme. He’s still their best bet to reach the end zone, too.

Tight Ends

DARREN WALLER: @ PITTSBURGH ($7,600)

Travis Kelce is off the main slate. This is not a drill. For all the amazing accolades, Kelce and Waller are virtually indistinguishable on the stat sheet. If Kelce is ever priced below $8k, you hammer it. If Waller is ever priced below $8k,…

GEORGE KITTLE: @ PHILADELPHIA ($6,400)

There was nothing obvious to suggest that the Eagles’ dismantling of the Falcons in Week 1 was a fluke. The Falcons have one of the worst rosters in the NFL. The scheme and game plan deployed by Arthur Smith was terrible. The play calls were terrible. The Falcons ignored every advantage they had against the Philly defense. For how annoying Kyle Shanahan is, he’s not taking Kittle out of the game plan (or is he?). I’ll be overweight on Kittle in all DFS formats where I can fit him in.

KYLE PITTS: @ TAMPA BAY ($5,200)

This is more in line with the salary Pitts should have had last week. This is a fair price for a player with GPP upside against a tough defense. The weakness of Tampa is in the slot, where Pitts was aligned on the vast majority of his snaps. He was a letdown in Week 1, production-wise. He is still pacing for 136 targets, so the production will follow. That is, if Matt Ryan can remember how to play quarterback.

ROB GRONKOWSKI: vs ATLANTA ($4,700)

The GPP landscape might be ripe for rostering two tight ends this week. Much like Week 2 of 2020, the matchups and pricing indicate this as optimal for tournament play. For cash, I look for chemistry and a steady role in the offensive system. That was glaring for Gronk and the Bucs in the kickoff game versus Dallas. The Falcons are similar, in that they lack quality personnel to defend the middle of the field. Play him at this salary with peak confidence.

NOAH FANT: @ JACKSONVILLE ($4,200)***

Jerry Jeudy’s injury hit me like a ton of bricks. I have him on over half of my fantasy teams. If there is a silver lining to this, it’s that Fant is penciled in as the direct recipient of the short and intermediate passing attention from historically-nearsighted Teddy Bridgewater. This is an ideal matchup with plenty of GPP upside, as well. Holy smokes! Am I becoming a Broncos fan?

JARED COOK: vs DALLAS ($3,900)

Yes, it hurts to pick on my Cowboys so much this week. I can’t help it. They are playing shorthanded on defense for the foreseeable future and visit the LA Chargers. The same Chargers that I predicted to win the Super Bowl this season. Cook was very clearly Justin Herbert’s favorite tight end target against Washington and has a history of sticking a dagger through Dallas’ heart.

Become a Patron!

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

Week 1

After a soul-snatching season of head-to-head DFS prowess against poor Nimble in 2020, I met the man this summer. I held him close, his pupils narrowed to pinpricks and pulse fluttering like a wounded moth. I whispered into his ear a message that made his graying beard hairs stand on end. “You still haven’t felt the staggering weight of my full potential.” Was he intimidated? Probably, unless he didn’t know that I was referring to our weekly face-off (formerly known as the Thunderdome) without context. Scott let out a whimper as I released my spine-cracking embrace. I was inside of him, in a figurative sense. My DFS wrath was to be inevitable again in 2021.

I’m going full send for Week 1 against Simpson. Do I care if some of our favorite plays are mutual? Not at all. The youth movement will be immediate this season. Should I achieve a truly resounding and demoralizing victory on Sunday, it will be on the young, limber backs of a few gentlemen who have yet to take a single NFL snap.

QB – Sam Darnold – Carolina Panthers – $5,000

Revenge game!!! The glow up from Gase to Rhule/Brady is overwhelming. Stacked with CMC and TMJ and the USC product goes full renaissance man.

RB – Christian McCaffrey – Carolina Panthers – $9,500

– I just wiped the saliva from my lip. CMC might need a hanky for his own drool facing the Jets in his first game back after a lost season.

RB – Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans – $8,800

King Henry is difficult to tackle. He might also see more work in the passing game this season, now that Arthur Smith is in Atlanta. I’m spending a lot of money on running back this week in all formats. Buckle up!

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 13: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans looks on after the Titans defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-10 at TIAA Bank Field on December 13, 2020 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

WR – Devonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles – $4,500

The Slim Reaper is a route-running savant. Atlanta’s secondary couldn’t cover a dead body with a tarp. Correlation? Points!

WR- Terrace Marshall Jr – $3,000

Marshall is going to be Darnold’s security blanket in the red zone. His ball skills are incredible and Joe Brady loves the kid. Dial it up at the minimum price!

TEMPE, AZ – JUNE 02: Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Rondale Moore (85) runs a drill during the Arizona Cardinals offseason practice OTAs on June 2, 2021 at Arizona Cardinals Training Facility in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

WR- Rondale Moore – Arizona Cardinals – $3,000

Mighty Mouse is a physical freak. At 5’8″ 180 pounds, he also squats 700 pounds and has a 41″ vertical leap. Put the Purdue rookie in an offense that runs over 70 plays per game with Kyler Murray? More min-priced profits!

TE – Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons – $4,400

Another rookie! The fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft was the focus of my unbridled and unhinged offseason touting how special he is. Put him against a defense full of dad bods in a Cover-2? Easy money.

Flex – Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings – $9,100

I’m a sneaky bastard. Three stud running backs with great matchups this week in the same lineup should be illegal. Maybe it is, but like Judas Priest, I’m BREAKING THE LAW!…

DST – Jacksonville Jaguars – $2,700

The Texans were in full tank mode the moment it was clear that Deshaun Watson wasn’t going to play for them this season. Even though Urban Meyer is a donkey, I’d be stunned if the Jags didn’t force some turnovers out of Tyrod Taylor and his island of misfit, washed-up vets.

Scott’s Revenge: The Kobayashi Plan

Before we begin, I want to address the elephant in the room. Yes. Bo McBrayer, AKA @Bo_McBigTime on Twitter, did thoroughly and soundly beat my ass in Cash games from Thanksgiving on last year. , it was all a rouse to build his confidence up so that I could then even more soundly and thoroughly defeat him this season. Call me Kobayashi, because this is some next-level Keyser Soze shit I’m about to pull off. Bo has no idea that I’ve been on the long Con all along. Shhhh. Don’t tell him. He’ll find out soon enough after I gut and dump his lineup off the boat into the DraftKings’ loser lobby Sunday night. Here’s the team that starts me off with the victory.

QB – Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles – $6,400

The Falcons ranked 31st against the quarterback position in 2020, giving up a meaty 23.3 points per game. Unless first-round pick Kyle Pitts plans on playing both ways, the Falcons will continue to struggle to stop opposing QBs. This is great news for semi-rookie Jalen Hurts, who is starting his first full season as Eagle’s starting quarterback. The Falcons conceded 40 touchdowns to quarterbacks last year. Look for Hurts to carve them up for two scores through the air and at least one rushing in this defense optional matchup.

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – DECEMBER 13: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints scores a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on December 13, 2020 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

RB – Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $8,600

Alvin Kamara averaged over 33 points per game in the eight games he’s played in without Michael Thomas on the field. Currently, he’s rostered on 20% of DraftKings Main Slate GPP rosters, which is the highest of all running backs. I’m comfortable with eating the chalk on this Kamara because his upside is slate-breaking.

RB- James Robinson -Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,400

James Robinson Szn. Oh, you wanted some analysis? I see. How about this. The Texans are terrible and will win you money all season if you load up against them. Seriously, the Texans punted on defense when they signed their entire squad to one-year deals.  On the other hand, the unfortunate injury to Travis Etienne opens the door for James Robinson to once again be the dominant rushing and pass catcher in the Jacksonville Jaguars’ backfield.

WR – Calvin Ridley – Atlanta Falcons – $7,900

Calvin Ridley is a baller and he’s about to ball out this week against the Philadelphia Eagles. PFF and RuntheSims.com both rank Ridley as one of their top receiving option for Week 1, so it’s just not me. Ridley has been close to unstoppable in the 19 previous games he’s been fed eight or more targets. He’s scored 16 touchdowns. Let me repeat that. He has scored 16 touchdowns in 19 games with eight or more targets. The chances are very high that Ridely scores at least one touchdown, which means his chances of scoring two are better than almost everyone else’s.

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – OCTOBER 18: DJ Moore #12 of the Carolina Panthers celebrates after making a catch in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears at Bank of America Stadium on October 18, 2020 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

WR – D.J. Moore – Carolina Panthers – $6,100

D.J. Moore might be the best receiver play all week on DraftKings. PFF predicts that Moore with the fourth-best cornerback matchup for Week 1. Sam Darnold will be itching to prove the Jets wrong in this redemption/revenge contest. Moore amassed close to 1,200 yards on under 70 receptions in 2020. He’s an incredible route runner and posses a nightmare scenario for new Jets’ head coach Robert Selah. With only four touchdowns in all of 2020, Moore is set to break out this season, don’t be surprised if he scored twice in this one.

WR – Devonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles – $4,500

Devonta Smith is priced like he’s one of the terrible 2020 Eagles wide receivers. I get it DraftKings, you have no love for the rookies, but still. Smith is in a prime position to be the clear WR1 on the Eagles. Look for him to see between 7-9 targets in this matchup against a soft Atlanta Falcons secondary.

TE – Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons – $4,400

Hard to ask for a better NFL debut matchup for Kyle Pitts than the Philadelphia Eagles. Last season the Eagles ranked 25th against the tight end position, giving up eight touchdowns (three in Tyler Higbee in Week 2) and over 14 points per game.

K’Von Wallace will be the primary safety assigned to stop Pitts on Sunday. Wallace stands 5’11” and Pitts a mear 6’6″, seven inches taller. The tallest defender Pitts might face is 6’2″ Linebacker, Alex Singleton. This is the definition of a mismatch and I want all of it. Pitts will never be this cheap again. Currently, he is being rostered in only 20% of the DraftKings GPP Main Slate entries. He’s a smash or my Flex.

Flex – Marquez Callaway – New Orleans Saints – $3,400

Marquez Callaway’s DraftKings’ price has been set for close to a month now. It’s hard to find a wide receiver who is has a more solid floor this week than Callaway. If he scores 10 points he 3x and hit his value. If he scores 20, he’s 7x his value and probably won me my matchup.

DST – Indianapolis Colts – $2,300

The Colts defense is one of the top units in the league and I am banking on a rusty Russ and some home defensive cooking in a matchup that could produce a defensive touchdown. As long as some blocks D.K. Metcalf, so he can’t chase down the ball carrier.

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Winning for John

John Dwight Eller was born on June 22, 1958. John grew up big and athletic, like most of the Eller family. Football was (and still is) life in Corning, California, the Olive City. Eller played all the sports, excelling every step of the way. John played receiver and linebacker for the Corning Union High School Cardinals alongside his close friend, Jeff Stover. Stover went on to the University of Oregon and qualified for the boycotted 1980 Olympic Games in shot put, before trying out for and signing with the San Francisco 49ers during their glory days of the 1980s. John would make the two hour drive from Corning to Candlestick Park to hang out with Jeff at 49ers practice. John met the acquaintance of Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, and all the others from that dynastic run. I’m sure some of it is embellished, but the stories my stepfather, John Eller, told me about the 49ers pushed me head-over-heels in love with the game of football.

I won’t bore you with the details of my parents splitting up when I was in elementary school, but the important stage was when I was introduced to John. My real dad wasn’t around a bunch, but John always was. He was a contractor and built a great deal of homes in Corning, often paying me in cash to clean up job sites as an otherwise lazy kid. I loved to play video games and read books in my room, but John never accepted that on a sunny day and would kick me out of the house to simply “be outside.”

My stubborn self resented John for pushing me out into the world, but I still loved everything about playing and talking about football. I loved the Cowboys because of Emmitt Smith and local legend, Larry Allen (but also because John and I didn’t get along at the time and I hated the 49ers). I learned friendly rivalry from John. He also taught me to embrace the competitive fire I already had inside of me.

When he was blindsided by cancer four weeks ago, it broke everything inside of me because he had already lost a battle he didn’t know he was fighting. He passed away on Labor Day, but not before he got to his favorite spot on the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska to catch salmon and smoke a bowl. He had gotten his pilot’s license on a whim a few years ago and always wanted to fly on a private jet. He was returned home from Alaska in failing health last week on his first ever chartered flight.

I couldn’t help but smile through the numbness while writing this. He loved to read my fantasy football columns. I know he would love this one. He downloaded the DraftKings app last year just because he wanted to “put a hundred bucks in there and win or lose with my buddy Bo.” He won with me and all of you who were so awesome to support my work. I am dedicating this entire 2021 season to John’s memory. We will dominate cash games once again with the same strategy as before, now enhanced with the incredible tools at Occupy Fantasy and Run the Sims.

Week 1 DFS Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

HOUSTON, TX – FEBRUARY 05: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons reacts during the game against the New England Patriots during Super Bowl 51 at NRG Stadium on February 5, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,100):

There isn’t a more consistent cash game performer at any position than Mahomes. His salary will likely climb from this point, so it’s a clear strategy to plug him in this week. Even in a tougher matchup with Cleveland, hitting 24.3 points is closer to his floor than ceiling. I predict 32 passing attempts and three rushing attempts. Mahomes has an 82% chance to achieve 3x value, with more than a puncher’s chance of hitting 4x value.

Kyler Murray ($7,600):

Murray is my favorite cash quarterback this week. He faces a horrendous Titans defense, increasing the potential quality of his 40 EVO (35 passes, 5 rushes). I put Murray at a 91% chance of hitting 22.8 points on Sunday. Don’t overthink it. This is an incredible value for a player who was the highest scoring quarterback before a shoulder injury last season.

Ryan Tannehill ($6,500):

On the other side of the coin, The Tannehill-led Titans face a very young Cardinals defense with a myriad of weapons that will challenge the best units this season. The implied total is among the highest on the slate, giving Tannehill a nice bump in EVO. Add in weapons like AJ Brown and Julio Jones, and Tanny cracks 20 points with ease this week.

Matt Ryan ($6,000):

Matty Ice lost his favorite toy, but his parents, bracing for the disappointment had already ordered a new one. They spent a pretty penny in the form of the fourth overall pick to acquire Kyle Pitts. The Eagles will run a lot of Cover-2 on Sunday to deflect attention from their lack of defensive athleticism. The rushing attack for Atlanta might have trouble against a physical Philly front too. Even without a mobile dimension, Ryan’s EVO is 35. I would be stunned if he can’t crack 18 points.

Joe Burrow ($5,700)

There will be a lot of attention on Burrow’s left knee on Sunday. I’ll be watching who they run out there to attack a mildly improved Vikings defense. I envision a ton of passing attempts with low aDOT, featuring all three receivers and Joe Mixon. Burrow is holding a 40 EVO, making him a very strong value at quarterback for cash contests.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($9,500)

It’s a great week to roster stud running backs. All of the highest-priced options have plus matchups this week, so look to save salary elsewhere. CMC is a no-brainer any time he’s active and under $10k. His hunger to get back on the field, combined with the putrid Jets defense in the way, and you have the perfect excuse to root for the best to return to his 2019 form.

Dalvin Cook ($9,100)

Dalvin Cook against the Bengals? Sign me up! 27 points is tough to reach, but the Vikings EVO allocation was further narrowed with Irv Smith’s injury. Getting there with Cook shouldn’t make you sweat too hard. On DraftKings PPR scoring, Cook’s role in the passing game will be paramount.

Alvin Kamara ($8,600)

Speaking of a role in the passing game, Kamara is an obvious pricing mistake. He will be the chalkiest running back for GPP, limiting how much exposure you might want. For cash, spend with confidence that he is a virtual lock to anchor your build. Green Bay doesn’t have an answer for Kamara on defense, especially with his versatile route tree.

Austin Ekeler ($7,000)

After a couple missed practices for load management on Ekeler’s hamstring, many will be too shy to plug him into any DFS roster. I say they’re crazy. Ekeler is expected to play in full on Sunday, meaning you lock him in on DraftKings. Washington’s defense is stout, but struggled to contain receiving backs. The sheer volume of diverse routes makes Austin Ekeler a steal at his salary this week.

James Robinson ($6,400)

Preseason injuries are such a bummer. They also create opportunities, for the accompanying player and DFS gamers alike. Robinson will likely see a ton of work, reminiscent of last season. The best part? The Jags face the hapless Houston Texans. Houston is in the throes of a 76ers-level rebuild, already in full tank mode.

Najee Harris ($6,300)

I can’t believe I’m rostering a rookie running back in a Week 1 cash game, but the Bama prospect by way of Northern California checks all the boxes for EVO. Harris has all the requisite tools to excel at this level immediately. He also faces a dearth of pro-level competition on the depth chart. I believe new offensive coordinator Matt Canada will try to set the tone early on against Buffalo, giving the bruising ball carrier a chance to put his own stamp on the league from the jump.

Joe Mixon ($6,200)

I trust Joe Mixon…this week. This salary is criminally low, which is perfect for plugging into a cash game with an EVO of 22. Don’t underestimate Mixon’s acuity as a receiver either. Gio Bernard is gone, paving the way for even more volume for the volatile, polarizing former Oklahoma Sooner. I feel much more secure playing Joe Mixon in the one game bubble of DFS than spending high draft capital to roster him in season long and chewing my fingernails off.

Chase Edmonds ($4,600)

I love value running backs who are a big part of their team’s passing attack. In the case of Edmonds, he plays for a team that is terrible at scheming a running game. Kliff Kingsbury is as creative as a plain bagel, but the Air Raid scheme targets the running back position quite often. James Conner is a plodding, inefficient mess and obvious downgrade from Kenyan Drake. A healthy Edmonds at this salary is a very safe bet to hit value.

DENVER, COLORADO – JANUARY 03: Jerry Jeudy #10 of the Denver Broncos on a 92 yard pass reception against the Las Vegas Raiders in the fourth quarter at Empower Field At Mile High on January 03, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,300)

For how narrow my focus is on a particular set of running backs, there are quite a few wide receivers that I will have in my pool to plug into my cash builds. I am not afraid to roster a great wide receiver like Adams, even if he is facing a great corner like Marshon Lattimore. He is too much of a crucial part of the Packers offense and many of his EVO are completely manufactured. If you can squeeze Adams into your build, you rarely have a worry that he will perform.

Calvin Ridley ($7,900)

Ridley averaged nine targets per game last season, but that increased dramatically when Julio Jones left the field. Philly has Darius Slay and a bunch of guys, but Slay rarely shadows a particular receiver anymore. I expect Matt Ryan to have eyes for Ridley early and often, in between the pockets of the Cover-2 zone and in the corners of the end zone.

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800)

I love Nuk this week. I don’t ever force a stack in cash games, but I reserve the possibility for offenses like Arizona with a defined X receiver and a steady flow of target volume. Pairing him with Kyler Murray will be a staple of most of my builds this week.

Stefon Diggs ($7,600)

In a similar vein to Murray/Hopkins is Josh Allen and Diggs. Pittsburgh’s defense is very stout, but their weakness is at cornerback. This was evidenced by Diggs ripping them apart in their 2020 meeting. $7,600 is a steal of a salary; one that will make Diggs too chalky in GPP.

Keenan Allen ($6,900)

Much like his teammate, Austin Ekeler, Allen is a cheat code on DraftKings every time he laces up his cleats. Washington presents plenty of challenges for Justin Herbert defensively, but to me that just translates to more looks at his security blanket in the slot.

Julio Jones ($6,800)

I don’t remember the last time I saw a healthy Julio Jones under $7k. He faces a terrible Cardinals secondary in a likely shootout game. Don’t miss this obvious value. Julio is still one of the best receivers in the game.

Terry McLaurin ($6,400)

I’m unsure about the Washington offense, in general. I don’t like the fit with Ryan Fitzpatrick, especially against such a tough Chargers secondary. McLaurin, especially with Curtis Samuel on IR, gives me the least amount of pause. This will be his lowest salary of the year.

Diontae Johnson ($6,300)

Would I roster Diontae at $7,000 against Tre White? Probably not. I lean Claypool in a GPP this week, but Johnson’s expert route running will afford him a great deal of targets this week. At this salary, I expect pretty good odds of hitting value.

Brandon Aiyuk ($5,700)

Aiyuk is simply priced incorrectly this week. Detroit offers no defensive solution to slow down the 49ers, giving me good cause to plug the Arizona State product in as a value cash pivot to George Kittle. Aiyuk is another expert route runner who is the X receiver in this offense. Even Jimmy Garoppolo will be able to find him.

Tyler Boyd ($5,200)

Boyd is usually a better cash play than GPP and this week is no different. Joe Burrow will be reliant on quick passing on Sunday and likely throughout the 2021 season. Boyd is a trustworthy slot who should garner 8-10 targets.

Jakobi Meyers ($5,100)

Meyers might only be valuable in this exact format. He is a sharp slot receiver in a run-heavy Patriots offense and has exactly zero NFL touchdowns to his name. What he does have going for him is a role as the focal point of an offense run by a smart and accurate rookie quarterback.

Laviska Shenault Jr ($5,000)

The contrast between Shenault and Meyers is stark. Shenault is also the slot weapon in an offense run by a smart and accurate rookie quarterback, but he is also incredibly gifted as a ball carrier after the catch. Viska has plenty of touchdown upside against the Texans to pair with his EVO.

Jerry Jeudy ($4,800)

I doubt Jeudy makes this list if Drew Lock was the starter instead of Teddy Bridgewater. Jeudy is an otherworldly route runner and one of my favorite plays on Sunday, regardless of format. This salary is just too far below what it will be to ignore.

Tee Higgins ($4,700)

Remember Tee Higgins? Apparently DraftKings doesn’t. His salary is disrespectful. Minnesota’s defense will have to cover all three of the Bengals receivers, which I think they will do poorly. 14 points for Higgins to hit 3x value is incredibly likely.

AJ Green ($3,800)

Speaking of the Bengals, AJ Green has finally escaped their grasp. He is yet another receiving piece in a high-volume passing offense that faces a terrible defense in a shootout game. It’s been a half decade since we saw Green’s greatness, but I’m optimistic that we will see glimpses of it this season.

Marquez Callaway ($3,400)

Mr Chalk himself is the “free square” this week. He is a full fade for me in GPP, considering he will have to find space against Jaire Alexander. In cash, there isn’t much reason to avoid the only receiver worth a damn on this team besides Kamara.

Terrace Marshall Jr ($3,000)

I am consumed by rookie fever! Marshall is a 6’2″ slot receiver with incredible ball skills. He is facing the Jets. He is one of three rookie receivers with breakout potential at the minimum price, but the only one I actually expect to get a steady dose of meaningful targets.

Rondale Moore ($3,000)

EVO also accounts for manufactured touches. I expect the rookie out of Purdue to be weaponized in space from all over the formation against Tennessee. This might be the first time we see any kind of creativity from Kingsbury. Moore is more explosive in the slot than Christian Kirk and a better runner out of the backfield than the corpse of James Conner. It will be fun to roster Mighty Mouse all season, albeit at a higher salary going forward.

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – DECEMBER 27: <> at Arrowhead Stadium on December 27, 2020 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,300)

Kelce is an obvious no-brainer every week. With Mark Andrews and Darren Waller off the main slate this week, you’re hard-pressed to find more of a cash game lock. Fitting him in under the cap is the real challenge.

George Kittle ($6,300)

This salary made me laugh out loud. Easy smash spot against the pathetic Lions. A healthy Kittle is the alpha pass catcher in San Francisco. Roster him and profit with ease.

Logan Thomas ($4,600)

This was a late addition, with the injury setback to Curtis Samuel. I won’t have a ton of Thomas, but he will see an uptick in EVO with a narrower passing focus for Fitzpatrick. The Chargers were also weak against opposing tight ends in 2020, relative to other positions.

Kyle Pitts ($4,400)

This is the best cash play of the week at any position. Pitts is my TE1 overall this week and should feast on the Eagles horrible linebackers and safeties all day. Arthur Smith will be dialing up a multitude of ways to funnel targets to the stud rookie, in addition to exploiting the seam weakness in the Philly Cover-2 scheme. MEGA SMASH!!!

Anthony Firkser ($3,200)

The Titans passing game will likely run through AJ Brown and Julio Jones, but the utter lack of good wide receivers behind them leads me to believe Firkser will be a key contributor to keep the chains moving. His role in the offense as a traditional tight end is unclear, as he is a liability as a blocker. If you’re left looking for a cheap option at tight end, he’s your guy this week.

SB54 – B-E-T-S! BETS! BETS! BETS!


Photo credit: For the Win – USA Today

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 13 

1/31/2020

In the immortal words of Al Pacino’s famous character Michael Corleone in the Godfather III, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!” I’m talking of course about Super Bowl sports betting! And before you @ me, I am not alone. This year hopeful prognosticators are expected to plop down over $6.8 billion in Super Bowl wagers in the U.S. alone. If that number sounds astronomical, it’s because that number really is astronomical. We’re talking Neil deGrasse Tyson fist pumping in his home made anti-gravity chamber astronomical levels here. But what does that crazy number translate to in real life? Imagine if all 330 million American adults each placed a $20 bet on the game or every person on the planet decided to Venmo you $0.90. While your Venmo crashes, let me remind you that there is a hell of a lot of money up for grabs on Super Sunday and I for one want in on the action! Below you will find a range of betting options to tickle your big game wagering fancy. All of the lines and odds are from the William Hill Sportbook.

Player Props

Pat Mahomes

Photo Credit: Washington Times

Andy Reid is going to put the ball and the game in the hands of his MVP QB Patrick Mahomes! I would not be surprised if Mahomes drops back to pass between 40-45 times on Sunday. This means taking the over in most of his props.

  • Total Passing Attempts – Over 37.0 -110
  • Total Passing Touchdowns – Over 2.5 +105
  • Total Rushing Attempts – Over 5.5 -110
  • Total Interceptions- Over 0.5 +120
  • Total Passing Completions – Over 24.5 -110
  • MVP -120

George Kittle

Photo Credit: ABC7 News

George Kittle is one of my top 5 favorite players to watch and an all around absolute animal! With that being said, his pass catching skills have not been featured heavily in the run dominated scheme that got the 49ers to the Super Bowl. I think that he finds the end zone, but victory for the 49ers will come on the ground, not through the air.

  • Total Receiving Yards – Under 73.5 -110
  • Total Receptions – Under 6.5 -130
  • Will George Kittle Score A Touchdown – Yes +140
  • Score the 1st TD +1000

Mecole Hardman

Photo Credit: Mecole Hardman @MecoleHardman4

Let me start by saying that I love Mecole in SB54! I love the potential CB match-ups he will be facing, his blazing 4.33 40 speed and his big play ability to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. His prop bets are enticing!

  • Yards Of Longest Kickoff Return – Over 28.5 -110
  • Yards Of Longest Punt Return – Over 8.5 -110
  • Total Receiving Yards – Over 20.5 -110
  • Total Receptions – Over 1.5 +120

Deebo Samuel

The college RB turned NFL WR is electric in space and if Kyle Shanahan can get him enough touches, we can all make some money come Sunday!

  • Total Rushing Attempts – Over 0.5 -250
  • Total Reception – Over 3.5 -140
  • Total Rushing Yards – Over 13.5 -110
  • Will Deebo Samuel Score A Touchdown – Yes +165

Best Bets

  • Chiefs -1 -110
  • Under 54.5 -110
  • 1st Quarter Spread – San Francisco 49ers +0.5 -160
  • Total Players With A Pass Attempt In Game – Over 2.5 +120
  • Total Sacks In Game – Over 4.5 -120

Long Shots = Pay Day MVP Long Shot Odds

  • George Kittle +1500
  • Deebo Samuel +1800
  • Travis Kelce +1800
  • Tyreek Hill +1800
  • Mecole Hardman +7500

It’s All Fun and Games

  • Coin Toss – Head/Tails (both) +105
  • Result Of First Coach’s Challenge – Upheld/Overturned (both) -110
  • Will A Drive Start At The 5 Yard Line or Less – Yes -120
  • Will Either Team Use All 6 Timeouts In Regulation Time? – Yes +175
  • Three Unanswered Scores In Game? – No +165

May the sports betting gods be with us all! 

Scott Simpson

Let Them Eat Chalk!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 12 

12/28/2019

Let me be up front. I love Christian McCaffery! He is the best fantasy football player not named Lamar Jackson. He is 33 points away from breaking the all-time single-season fantasy points record, which currently stands at 481.1 points by LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. His name has been bantered about, though less frequently of late, in the MVP discussion. Don’t get me wrong, all the the CMC love is definitely warranted. But how does that translate to your DFS lineups in week 17? He is going to be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. I even heard one FF analyst (Scott Barrett) say that you should have 100% CMC in your DFS week 17 lineups. I understand eating the chalk, but at $11,000 I feel that there is more value to be had at RB and say, let them eat chalk, while we look for value at RB and WR to offset the heavy CMC ownership. Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones and Miles Sanders are all mid-priced RBs with favorable match-ups who have the potential to find the endzone and eclipse the 20 point mark. Cramming CMC into your lineup also makes it harder to jam in stud WRs. AJ Brown and Julio Jones only trail Michael Thomas (25.1) over the last three weeks, averaging 22.4 and 20.9 PPG respectively. Dallas Goedert is the new Zack Ertz without a Dallas Goedert around to steal targets, because he is Dallas Goedert.

Photo Credit: USA Today

This week I entered 180 DFS contests. I am sure that I will make slight adjustments before kick-off on Sunday, but here are my current player percentages for each position.

I wish you all the best in week 17!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 11 

12/21/2019

We’ve all heard the phrase, “Put your money where you mouth is.” It’s a phrase that originated in the 1930’s as a call to support what you cared about with your money or your time. Makes sense. But given the American bent towards individualism, there’s no surprise that is has since been appropriated by the masses as a friendlier way to tell someone to “put up or shut up.” When you actually break the phrase down, it really has an ingenious way of showcasing the human desire to be both right (ego) and also to win (survive). If you listen hard and long enough on Sunday mornings, you can faintly make out its Tell Tale Heart, capriciously beating within the dystopian Id that is the sports gambling community. If you would indulge me a brief story to help me illustrate my point. A while back my NY Giants loving brother-in-law believed so strongly that that his G-men would beat Ray Lewis and the Ravens in Super Bowl 35 that he was was willing to financially back his blusterous claim. When push came to shove, I challenged his resolve and said, “Why don’t you put your money where your mouth is.” He was powerless to resist the challenge and retorted, “I’ll bet you $20 the Giants win the Super Bowl.” After making the ominous wager, he boasted again, “I would bet anyone!” Having realized that he had not quite learned his lesson, I did what every great brother-in-law would have done and I called a few of my friends into the room to get in on the action as well. In total, he lost $60 that day. LOL! He may have foolishly backed an obvious loser, but he stood by what be believed in and at least he was man enough to put his money where his mouth was.

I say all of this because after spending the last few months listening/watching all the weekly DFS tout sights’ podcasts, I find it a little disingenuous to hear DFS after DFS analyst tell us that they will, “have quite a bit of Saquon today” or “Derrick Henry is all over my lineup” or “Matt Ryan will be one of my top QB/WR stacks.” WTF does that mean? In the end they have covered all their bases, but not truly taken a stand. There is no quantification. What I have come to realize is that I could care less about who an analyst touts on their Youtube channel (while stuffing pizza down their throat) and instead I want to know who actually makes it into their weekly DFS lineups. Don’t tell me that you are “going to be getting a shit ton of Julio today”, I want to see your receipts! What are your player percentages? Show me the percentages!!!!

After reflecting on my own process, I have decided to write my weekly DFS article after I have entered all of my DFS line-ups. Now, I will be able to accurately track who I am playing each week and more importantly, put my money where my mouth is with my DFS advice. Here are my player percentages for both the Saturday and Sunday main slates. My receipts.

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Russell
Wilson
$8,300
Drew
Brees
$8,200
Matt
Ryan
$7,700
Phillip
Rivers
$7,500


WR
Tyler
Lockett
$7,600

DK
Metcalf
$6,300
Michael
Thomas
$9,000

*Jared
Cook
$6,600
Julio
Jones
$8,000

*Austin
Hooper
$6,000
Keenan
Allen
$6,800

Mike
Williams
$6,500
*QB/TE Stack

High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 

QBLamar
Jackson
$9,300
Kyler
Murray
$7,700

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$10,800
Saquon
Barkley
$8,800
Zeke
Elliot
$8,700
Chris
Carson
$8,200

WR
Michael
Thomas
$9,000
Julio
Jones
$8,000
Amari
Cooper
$7,700
AJ
Brown
$7,200

TE
Zach
Ertz
$6,900
Jared
Cook
$6,600
Mark
Andrews
$6,500
Darren
Waller
$6,500

DST
Pittsburgh
Steelers
$4,900
Baltimore
Ravens
$4,500



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


RB
Alvin
Kamara
$7,200
Kenyan
Drake
$7,100
Austin
Ekeler
$6,800
Adrian
Peterson
$6,500
RBDevonta
Freeman
$6,200
Kareem
Hunt
$6,100
DeAndre
Washington
$5,600
Latavius
Murray
$5,500

WR
DeVante
Parker
$6,900
Keenan
Allen
$6,700
Zach
Pascal
$6,600
DJ
Moore
$6,600
WRMichael
Gallop
$6,500
Terry
McLaurin
$6,500
DK
Metcalf
$6,300
Tyler
Boyd
$6,300

TE
Austin
Hooper
$6,000
Noah
Fant
$5,900
Jacob
Hollister
$5,700
Greg
Olsen
$4,900
DSTNO
Saints
$3,800
Dallas
Cowboys
$3,600

I wish you all the best in week 16!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

RIP: Fantasy Football

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 10 

12/13/2019

Fantasy football is not dead. But it might feel that way for some of us as we mourn the loss of our fantasy football teams. I cried (on the inside, like a real man) after my fantasy football team “I’m at Full Chubb”, may it RIP, was eliminated 168.95 to 167.5 on Monday night. My team was stacked with Drew Brees, Nick Chubb, Chris Carson, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews. This genius left both Drew Brees (54.7) and Ryan Tannehill (41.1) on his bench and played Carson Wentz (29.4). This was just the latest heartbreak in a sad 15 year fantasy football career of near misses and never has been championships. While I was openly grieving and lamenting on Tuesday morning, my wife hit me with, “It’s enough to make you quit.” I retorted, “What did you say?” in my best Will Ferrell Anchorman voice. Followed by, “I will never quit! I want to win dammit!!” Cooler heads have prevailed and thankfully this years’ story hasn’t been fully written yet since I still have one more bullet in the re-draft chamber. I’ll fill you in next week and let you know if I am playing for $1400 or for $200. God help me if it’s not for $1400!

Great news for both of us is that fantasy football does not have to be over!! We can get right back on the horse and fire up some daily fantasy football (DFS) to help ease the pain of our loss. Hell, I’m getting the band back together this week and I am picking my re-draft team in DFS. You should too. Or maybe you are out for blood. Got knocked out in the first round by McCaffery, saddle up and ride him to DFS glory in some weirdo DFS style revenge fantasy. No more Patrick Laird after your team got eliminated. DFS is all Patrick Laird, all the time! The beauty of DFS is that you can be any team you want to be. 4 out of 5 (80%) fantasy football analysts recommended it to therapeutically treat “Fantasy Football Derangement Disorder” more commonly known as FFDD, which often occurs in the weeks, and for some months, after the fantasy football season has ended. Signs of this ever increasing disorder include stalking mock drafting lobbies, angry Tweeting the fantasy analyst blaming them for making you start Russell Wilson and muttering “JuJu fucking Smith Schuster” repeatedly under your breath at work. There is hope for you in DFS. Come and wash off your sorrow and be reborn into a whole new fantasy szn.

Winners!

I splurged in week 14 and played in the 1.65M GPP as well as my weekly smaller GPP tournament. Analyzing these winning lineups, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal lineup for week 15.

Winning lineup for Week 14 Fanduel $1.65M Sun NFL Dive ($9 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 14 Fanduel $125K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($1 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Michael Thomas & AJ Brown stacked with their respective QBs netted 65.5 and 59.64 . It is hard to win without picking the top stacks of the week.
  • Each had one of the two top RBs with Austin Ekeler at 29.3 and Aaron Jones at 28.2. They also selected strong mid-value RBs in Freeman, Henry and Gordon who didn’t sink their chances.
  • Game stack shootouts! The Emmanuel Sanders/Michael Thomas game stack was good for 55.5. We all saw that one coming.
  • The $300,000 winner leveraged cheaper WRs in Pascal ($6,100) and Terry McLaurin ($5,600) who ended up both finding the endzone.
  • Pittsburgh DEF (4.2x) continues do deliver fantasy value each week.

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Deshaun
Watson
$8,200
Jared
Goff
$7,800
Baker
Mayfield
$7,800
Baker
Mayfield
$7,700


WR
DeAndre
Hopkins
$8,600
Cooper
Kupp
$7,600

Robert
Woods
$7,500
Amari
Cooper
$7,700

Michael
Gallop
$6,800
Jarvis
Landry
$7,400

Odell
Beckham
$7,200

High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


RB
Dalvin
Cook
$8,500
Leonard
Fournette
$7,700
Todd
Gurley
$7,600
Raheem
Mostert
$7,500

WR
DeAndre
Hopkins
$8,600
Kenny
Golladay
$7,900
Julian
Edelman
$7,700
Julio
Jones
$7,500

TE
Travis
Kelce
$7,300
George
Kittle
$7,200
Zach
Ertz
$6,700
Darren
Waller
$6,200

DST
New
England
$5,000
San
Francisco
$4,500



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Ryan
Tannehill
$7,600
Tom
Brady
$7,600
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$7,300
Eli
Manning
$6,800

RB
Kareem
Hunt
$6,700
Joe
Mixon
$6,700
Phillip
Lindsay
$6,400
Kenyan
Drake
$6,200
RBMatt
Breida
$5,600
Duke
Johnson
$5,600
Patrick
Laird
$5,500
Chris
Thompson
$5,200

WR
Emmanuel
Sanders
$6,900
DeVante
Parker
$6,900
DJ
Moore
$6,800
Keenan
Allen
$6,800
WR Michael
Gallop
$6,800
Deebo
Samuel
6,500
DK
Metcalf
$6,300
Darius
Slayton
$6,300

WR
Terry
McLaurin
$6,000
Mecole
Hardman
$5,600
Danny
Amendola
$5,400
Chris
Conley
$5,100

TE
Noah
Fant
$5,700
Tyler
Higbee
$5,700
Dallas
Goedert
$5,700
Ian
Thomas
$5,300
DSTKansas
City
$3,900
Chicago
Bears
$3,800

Weekly Best Lineup –  RB/WR Balanced

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBBaker Mayfield$7,700
RBLeonard Fournette$7,700
RBTodd Gurley$7,600
WRDeAndre Hopkins$8,600
WRJarvis Landry$7,400
WRChris Conley$5,100
TEZach Ertz$6,700
FLXPatrick Laird$5,500
DEFLA Rams$3,600

Weekly Best Lineup – RB Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBEli Manning $6,800
RBDalvin Cook$8,500
RBLeonard Fournette$7,700
WRSterling Sheppard$5,900
WRKenny Golladay$7,900
WRTerry McLaurin$6,000
TEZach Ertz$6,700
FLXPatrick Laird$5,500
DEFNew England$5,000

I wish you all the best in week 15!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Show Me the Money!!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 9 

12/7/2019

Show me the money! Fantasy football is the best form of sports entertainment. Full Stop. Over the last 20 years fantasy football has grown into a billion dollar industry with around 60 million people participating in 2019. There are lots of compelling reasons people are playing fantasy football, but why the sudden explosion in popularity? I know that in my home re-draft league, the draft night spectacle is wild and well worth the price of admission. But it has to be more than bros loving football and getting together to bro out and talk copious amounts of trash while slamming beers and while trying to figure out why Sammy Watkins went in the third round. In reality billions of dollars are wagered/gambled each year on fantasy football. Cash is king. And until recently, I thought that most fantasy football participants all agreed that the ultimate purpose for playing fantasy football was to cash. That’s why I was shocked when I came across a poll that Jeff Ratcliffe from ProFootballFocus (PFF) conducted on whether or not you should pick players up off the wavier wire after you have been eliminated from the playoffs. 44% of the over 5,000 people who voted, indicated that they think “you should keep playing” even if you do not make the playoffs. It was stunning to me that such a large percentage of the fantasy football community clearly doesn’t that the losers in your fantasy league shouldn’t take precedence over the winners.

Why would people who have nothing to play for keep picking up players even after they have been eliminated from cashing? My own core belief on this issue is that once the playoffs have started and you are eliminated from contention, no longer having the opportunity to win cash, you should under no circumstances ever pick up a player off of the waiver wire. (If you play in a no money league. First, WTF? And second, this doesn’t apply to you). Firmly entrenched in my beliefs, I bravely dropped into the comments on Jeff’s thread and mixed it up with the 44% to try to find out where they had lost their way.

  • Draft Picks are on the line – I sucked all year and now I want to be rewarded
  • Avoid the Toilet Bowl punishment – I don’t want to wear a dress at Arby’s!
  • The Consolidation bracket made me do it – I can’t think for myself
  • I paid for this dammit! – Me > People who can actually win money
  • Over my dead body! – I cannot let anyone win because I am insecure.

I realize that lots of leagues incentivize continued participation once the playoffs start by tying draft picks to where you finish in the consolidation ladder or forcing the last place finisher in the league to some outrageous form of humiliation. Both of these ideas makes sense on the surface. Keep people involved in the league. Make the draft order interesting. Got it. But explain to me why it should trump (Sorry, I hate even correctly using that word now.) my ability to win cash. Your little last place tournament isn’t the reason we are here. It’s like going to a basketball court. Getting a team together. Waiting your turn. Getting on the court. Losing a game. And then teaming up with the team that lost the first game and kicking the winners off the court so that you losers can run a game. You lost. Take your ball and go home and then open up your computer or phone and play DFS.

Still others argue the old tried and true, if someone built the bridge, we have to walk on it fallacy. When did we lose the plot and decide that since ESPN and Yahoo have a consolidation bracket, it is mandatory everyone participate in it? I’m guessing that Jake is the kind of guy that never fails to fills out and mail in the warranty card for his electric toothbrush. Oh it is simple Jake. You can simply disregard the consolidation ladder because it isn’t required to win the championship.

And of course, there is the most American argument of them all. ME! It is all about me and my fun. I will be playing every single week and actively trying to disrupt people who actually can win money. Oh, its a dick move alright. Imagine people thinking that a game that they are eliminated from should somehow be negatively impacted by them. This is just gross. This guy would be kicked out of my league immediately. I respect the guys I play with in my home league too much to purposefully try to take food out of their mouths. If you play fantasy football to be a dick to your friends and family, your definitely helping me prove my point.

My decent into madness (Jeff’s Twitter thread) did not deter me. All of the reasons people provided made some sense. They weren’t outrageous, they just were short sighted and individualistic. They elevate participants who have lost the chance to win cash and placed them on par with those who still have skin in the game. This is where all of their arguments fall apart. Not all fantasy teams are created equally, and those that cannot compete for a championship shouldn’t hinder those who can once they have been eliminated. Here is my suggestion to all the good fantasy football participants who did not make the playoffs: Play DFS.

Winners!

Now let’s take a look at some of the DFS winners who took down some of the smaller GPP tournaments. Analyzing these winning lineups, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal lineup for week 14.

Winning lineup for Week 13 Fanduel $125K Sun NFL Dive ($1 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 13 Fanduel $50K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Both lineups featured a low priced QB/WR stack from a high scoring game.
  • Identify High Scoring Games! The winners featured a combined total of 9 Dolphins/Eagles players on their rosters. That was 50% of their rosters.
  • Miles Sanders was a stone cold steal last week priced at only $5,800.
  • The WR combo of Davante Adams and DeVante Parker netted 52.8 fantasy points.
  • Tyler Higbee played the pass funnel 32nd ranked Arizona Cardinals defense and went for 7 rec, for 107 yards and 1 TD.
  • Silver lining: Both winners swung and missed (Chubb – 8.4 and Agholor 7.6) and were still able to bring home the victory.
  • Cheap DEFs are still back! Bucs DEF scored 23 points for a 6.1x value and the Chiefs scored 22 points and had a value of 5.2x.

DFS Resources

Each week I peel back the current and share part of my process for constructing my DFS lineups. This week I am sharing the outstanding work of Jeff Ratcliffe and the great team at ProFootballFocus. Jeff’s weekly fantasy focus article contains insights and analysis that helps me identify key players to build my core lineup around. I highly recommend you add Jeff to your weekly DFS process as well!

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100
Sam
Darnold
$7,700
Baker
Mayfield
$7,600
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$7,400


WR
Davante
Adams
$8,000

Allen
Lazard
$5,600
Robby
Anderson
$6,400

Jamison
Crowder
$6,000
Jarvis
Landry
$7,300

Odell
Beckham
$7,800
DeVante
Parker
$7,200 

*Mike
Gesicki
$5,400

*QB/TE Stack

High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 

QBLamar
Jackson
$9,000
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100
Sam
Darnold
$7,700
Jameis
Winston
$7,700

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$11,000
Derrick
Henry
$9,100
Aaron
Jones
$7,800
Melvin
Gordon
$7,300

WR
Michael
Thomas
$8,000
Davante
Adams
$8,000
Chris
Godwin
$7,900
Kenny
Golladay
$7,400

TE
Austin
Hooper
$6,600
Mark
Andrews
$6,600
Jack
Doyle
$6,300
Darren
Waller
$6,200

DST
Green Bay
Packers
$5,000
Houston
Texans
$4,700



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Ryan
Tannehill
$7,300
Kyle
Allen
$7,100
Andy
Dalton
$7,000

RB
James
White
$6,000
Jamaal
Williams
$5,600
Patrick
Laird
$5,500
RBAlexander
Mattison
$5,100
Darwin
Thompson
$5,100
Bilal
Powell
$4,900

WR
D.J.
Moore
$7,100
Calvin
Ridley
$6,900
Keenan
Allen
$6,800

WR
James
Washington
$6,700
Tyler
Boyd
6,300
Zach
Pascal
$6,100

TE
Vance
McDonald
$5,800
Ryan
Griffin
$5,600 
Kyle
Rudolph
$4,800 
DSTSan
Francisco
$3,800
Tampa
Bay
$3,800

Weekly Best Lineup – WR Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBAaron Rodger$8,640
RBKareem Hunt$6,400
RBDerrick Henry$9,100
WRCalvin Ridley$6,900
WRDavante Adams$8,400
WRDeVante Parker$7,200
TEKyle Rudolph$4,800
FLXBilal Powell$4,900
DEFNO Saints$3,800

Weekly Best Lineup – RB Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBSam Darnold$7,700
RBChristian McCaffery$11,000
RBDerrick Henry$9,100
WRRobby Anderson$6,400
WRDeVante Parker$7,200
WR Diontae Johnson $5,100
TEKyle Rudolph$4,800
FLXBilal Powell$4,900
DEFSan Francisco 49ers$3,800

I wish you all the best in week 14!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the outstanding work that Jeff Ratcliffe does over at ProFootballFocus!

Jeff Ratcliffe
@JeffRatcliffe
Fantasy football for @PFF
| Husband & dad | Rankings | DFS | Player prop bets | winning @SiriusXM host | TV on @CBSSportsNet
| Wu-Tang | IG: jeffratcliffePhilly
jeffratcliffe.com

Part 2: This is a Robbery!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 8 

11/30/2019

Heat is one of my favorite movies. During the dramatic bank robbery scene, there is a pivotal moment when De Niro and his team exit the bank. Brandishing automatic weapons and carrying millions of dollars in huge black duffel bags, they head towards their getaway car. The camera cuts to Al Pacnio and his LAPD Major Crimes Unit Team, who unbeknownst to the robbers, have descended on the bank in order to thwart the attempted robbery. De Niro and Tom Sizemore make it to the car and just as Val Kilmer exits the bank, money in hand, he allows a wry, smugly satisfied smile to briefly flash across his face. This portends to disaster though, he has celebrated too soon, and a split second later all hell breaks lose on the streets of LA. It is cinematic perfection.

My own personal “Heat” moment happened last Sunday. After smugly boasting of taking down a casino, my team and I were flat out robbed by the Washington football team (who of course won the game against the Lions outright). SMH. Since the Lions were the play of the day, we infused the match-up into all of our teasers and parlays. Just like our heroes in Heat, who thought they planned the perfect robbery, our bankrolls never stood a chance to make it out alive. There was so much bitterness when the Lions gave up the game winning field goal. Betting tickets were being ripped up and discarded left and right and once again the Washington football team was resoundingly cursed. We were all big losers. Everyone, except for Chuck that is. Who is Chuck you ask? I don’t know! None of us had ever met the guy. He just showed up as a friend of a friend and then took down a super parlay and won $2,000. He had cashed in his winning ticket and split by 4:10 p.m. leaving us all embittered and a bit shell shocked. To a man we all agreed. We had been robbed!! Oh and F Chuck!

Winners!

We are turning it around this week! Now let’s take a look at some of the DFS winners who took down some of the smaller GPP tournaments. Analyzing these winning lineups, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal lineup for week 13.

Winning lineup for Week 12 Fanduel $15K Sun NFL Dive ($0.05 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 12 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Both lineups featured a low priced QB/WR stack. Good reminder that you can find cheap value at QB and breaking the bank for Lamar Jackson isn’t always a recipe for success in GPP tournaments.
  • One team had 4 Browns. I’ll give you a minute to process. Jarvis Landry has been fire the last 4 weeks with 29 receptions for 339 yards and 5 TDs.
  • The RB stack in the JAC vs TEN game paid off in a big way with Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette combining for over 60 points.
  • Didn’t you get the message that it was Chris Godwin szn last week?
  • Ertz was the only TE who actually saw game action last week. I kid (only 4 TE scored over 10 points on the main slate on Sunday).
  • Cheap DSTs are back! Washington had an ungodly 7.0x value last week.

Podcasts

Listening to podcasts is pretty much a life requirement for anyone living in 2019. I’m sure that you wouldn’t be surprised to learn that each week I listen to select DFS Podcasts as part of my preparation for building my lineups. One of my favorites is the Rotobahn Podcast featuring Pete Davidson. Check out his outstanding work at Rotobahn and make sure to listen to his weekly DFS Podcast for player insights and match-up analysis.

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Patrick
Mahomes
$8,600
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100
Jared
Goff
$7,900
Nick
Foles
$7,500


WR
Tyreek
Hill
$8,400

Sammy
Watkins
$6,100
Davante
Adams
$8,000

*Aaron
Jones
$8,000
Cooper
Kupp
$7,800

Robert
Woods
$7,800
D.J.
Chark
$6,900 

Dede
Westbrook
$6,900

*QB/RB Stack

High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 

QBLamar
Jackson
$8,700
Patrick
Mahomes
$8,600
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$11,000
Aaron
Jones
$8,000
Josh
Jacobs
$7,700
Le’veon
Bell
$7,300

WR
Davante
Adams
$8,000
Cooper
Kupp
$7,800
Jarvis
Landry
$7,400
D.J.
Moore
$6,800

TE
Travis
Kelce
$7,100
George
Kittle
$7,000
Darren
Waller
$6,100
Ryan
Griffin
$5,600

DST
Philadelphia
Eagles
$5,000
Carolina
Panther
$4,700



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Sam
Darnold
$7,600
Nick
Foles
$7,500
Carson
Wentz
$7,000 

RB
Kenyan
Drake
$6,400
Phillip
Lindsay
$6,300
Ronald
Jones
$6,200
RBMiles
Sanders
$5,800
Darrel
Williams
$5,400
Chase
Edmonds
$5,000

WR
Alshon
Jeffery
$6,500
Emmanuel
Sanders
$6,400
Jamison
Crowder
$6,300

WR
Sammy
Watkins
$6,100
Christian
Kirk
6,100
DeVante
Parker
$6,000

TE
Tyler
Higbee
$5,500
Dallas
Goedert
$5,200 
Jack
Doyle
$5,000 
DSTLA
Chargers
$3,900
Pittsburgh
Steelers
$3,700

Weekly Best LineupWR/TE Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBPatrick Mahomes $8,600
RBRonald Jones$6,200
RBMiles Sanders$5,800
WRTyreek Hill$8,400
WRDavante Adams$8,000
WRDeVante Parker$6,000
TETravis Kelce$7,100
FLXDarren Waller$6,100
DSTLA Chargers$3,900

Weekly Best LineupRB Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBKyle Allen $7,200
RBChristian McCaffery $11,000
RBLeonard Fournette $7,600
WRAlshon Jeffery$6,500
WRD.J. Chark $6,900
WRD.J. Moore$6,800
TEJack Doyle$5,000
FLXChase Edmonds$5,000
DSTBaltimore Ravens$4,000

I wish you all the best in week 13!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the outstanding work that Pete Davidson does over at Rotobahn!

Pete Davidson
@Rotobahn
http://Rotobahn.com is my baby. Fantasy Football writer and broadcaster for @WEEI. Unwilling sufferer of fools and lover of logic.