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Clash of the Beards & Bellies

Super Unlikely

I already have my concession speech ready. In the most unlikely of collapses, my DFS luck ran out at the end of the regular season. In order to be the recipient of the championship whiskey, I will need to win by more than 37 points on Sunday. Any given Sunday, right?

With only one slate left, a Showdown slate, it will be even more difficult to reach the crest of the crater I left when I smacked into DFS rock bottom like the asteroid that killed all the cute dinosaurs. My Super Bowl lineup is as aggressive as I could afford to be. Here’s hoping I can hit optimal and also get Scott’s lineup to completely fall flat. Then I’ll be able to mock him with a nice dram, sipping with my pinky finger flying.

Bo’s Lineup

Captain – Odell Beckham Jr. – LA Rams – $12,600

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Los Angeles Rams reacts during the second quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at SoFi Stadium on January 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

The major risk I am taking with this lineup is fading both of the top wide receivers in the game. I am doubling down on my Kupp fade to Captain OBJ. Cincinnati’s pass defense isn’t terrible. They also play a lot of Cover-3 out of the nickel, which has the effect of taming Cooper Kupp’s outrageous upside. If I’m right, OBJ will duplicate his NFC Championship performance and score a touchdown.

Flex – Kendall Blanton – LA Rams – $4,600

I really don’t expect Tyler Higbee to be a factor in the passing game, even if he is able to play. Blanton stepped in masterfully against the 49ers, with 10.7 fantasy points in relief. A full game running routes against that shell zone scheme would result in very nice numbers at this salary for Blanton. Cincinnati is 29th in the NFL against opposing tight ends. McVay knows this and will slice the Bengals’ underbelly with an attack on the middle seam.

Flex – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $10,600

CINCINNATI, OHIO – FEBRUARY 07: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals walks onto the field as he is introduced during a Cincinnati Bengals Fan Rally ahead of Super Bowl LVI at Paul Brown Stadium on February 07, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

Joe Burrow is just too cool. I tried to find a reason to fade him, but his floor is simply too high. Sure, Ramsey will limit whomever he covers. On the other hand, Burrow has a trio of great receivers and the other defensive backs beside Ramsey have been a liability. Look for Burrow to need to pass for 300 yards for this game to be close.

Flex –  Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals – $7,600

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JANUARY 15: Tee Higgins #85 of the Cincinnati Bengals drops a reception against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of the AFC Wild Card playoff game at Paul Brown Stadium on January 15, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

I fully assume that Ja’Marr Chase will draw the majority of Jalen Ramsey’s attention. This excites me because Darious Williams has been getting barbecued all postseason by receivers nowhere near as good as Tee Higgins. Higgins is a big, rangy receiver who will be called upon in the red zone. I don’t see any way the Rams can cover all of the Bengals’ receivers.

Flex – Samaje Perine – Cincinnati Bengals – $2,400

Perine is the third-down back for Cincinnati, which means draws and screens (especially off of chip blocks) will be his forte. Raheem Morris loves to bring pressure on third down, which might be a fatal error against Burrow. At only $2.4k, I’m taking the chance that Burrow will use Perine to slip in behind the blitz, where big plays (like the one Perine had versus the Chiefs) can completely change the game’s momentum.

Flex – Matthew Stafford – Kansas City Chiefs $10,800

Sep 12, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) celebrates in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, I truly believe Stafford is the quarterback of destiny this season. Burrow has led his Bengals to an improbable berth in this game, but the Rams were supposed to be hereafter trading for the longtime Detroit Lion. Los Angeles mortgaged its entire future for this season. I need the guy to only throw touchdowns to Beckham and Blanton. It sounds absolutely absurd after the season Kupp had, but I am banking (and praying) on this being a wild finish to the craziest season in NFL history.

Raise My Kupp

At no point in the 2021 NFL season did I envision myself one game away from defeating Bo McBrayer and winning the Clash of the Beards and Bellies. I’m humbled to be in that very position this Super Sunday. I have a 32 point lead on Bo with only one game remaining. I thought long and hard about my lineup. I knew that I needed to play it reasonably safe and that Bo would in turn be forced to pivot to riskier, high variance plays. I made sure to include both quarterbacks and Cooper Kupp in my lineup. Bo faded Kupp and hitched his wagons to the OBJ Express. “It’s a bold strategy, Cotton” is all I can really say at this point. Our season-long battle comes down to which Ram’s wide receivers catch the Matthew Stafford touchdowns. I’m betting on Kupp and he’s betting on OBJ. May the football gods be with me and only me. May the sweet taste of victory literally be mine!!

Scott’s Lineup

Captain – Cam Akers – LA Rams – $9,600

TAMPA, FLORIDA – JANUARY 23: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams hands the ball off to teammate Cam Akers #23in the fourth quarter of the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Cam Akers isn’t my favorite DraftKings captain this week, but he is my favorite pay-down option that allows me to load my roster up with both quarterbacks, Cooper Kupp, and a starting running back (Akers). The Cincinnati Bengals defense allowed over 2,100 total yards and 16 total touchdowns to running backs in 2021. Akers’ 54 attempts in three playoff games are second-most for backs in the playoffs behind only Jerick McKinnon’s 55. Akers should see plenty of action all game long. And if the Rams are winning come the fourth quarter, which they are favored to be, Akers could be called on to run the clock out. If the Rams are losing, even better. Akers will be used more in the passing game.

Flex LA Rams DST – $3,400

The LA Rams DST has the home team advantage in the Super Bowl. Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Jalen Ramsey will be amped up and should feed off the electric energy from playing at home in front of their home fans. The last LA Rams Super Bowl game was predicted to shootout, but in the end, was a low-scoring tilt against the GOAT Tom Brady. I’m looking for 9-11 points from the defense, which should be manageable given the pass-rushing advantage the Rams enjoy/

Flex – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $10,600

KANSAS CITY, MO – JANUARY 30: Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) enters the stadium before the AFC Championship game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs on Jan 30, 2022 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Joe “Shiesty” Burrow is the truth. He’s beaten the Raiders, the Titans, Pat Mahomes, and the Kansas City Chiefs in an improbable sophomore run to the 2021 Super Bowl. Last season there were questions about whether he would be able to return to his rookie form after his gruesome 2020 knee injury. Burrow, aided by rookie wide receiving sensation Ja’Marr Chase, has exploded onto the NFL landscape, introducing the world to one of the coolest kids around. How can you not cheer for Joey B this week? Bo is no idiot, and of course, has Burrow on his squad as well. We all want a piece of greatness.

Flex – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $11,600

Speaking of Kupp, he’s the highest-scoring player in DraftKings, averaging 27.8 points per game. Kupp was incredible, amassing 145 receptions, 16 touchdowns, and over 1,900 receiving yards. Kupp is the most expensive player, but for good reason. A Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown is -165. The man is expected to put up real and fantasy points on Super Bowl Sunday. Unlike Bo, I will not be getting cute and will be playing Kupp one last time this season.

Evan – McPherson – Cincinnati Bengals – $4,000

Evan McPherson has scored 11 or more points in the last seven games. In the playoffs, he has been money, making all 12 of his field goals and averaging 16 points per game. If the Rams defense stops Burrow, I like having McPhearson raining down 50-yard field goal bombs all night. At only $4,000 he’s one of the best value plays on the board.

Flex – Matthew Stafford – LA Rams – $10,800

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp Combined this season for 57 touchdowns. The smart money in Cash games and H2H contests is to feature the two players who are most likely to score touchdowns. I’m not surprised Bo has included Stafford in his lineup, but fading Kupp for the second straight week in favor of OBJ is a risky all-or-nothing play brought on by the desperation of being down 30-plus points.

Featured

Clash of the Beards & Bellies

Put Up or Shut Up

I cry a lot. The great Jim Valvano said in his infamous ESPYs speech that you should “have your emotions moved to tears, could be happiness or joy” every day. Lately, the waterworks have been from losing in heartbreaking fashion to Nimble. It was the walk-off touchdown from Mahomes to Kelce in overtime that dropped the Bills defense into the red numbers.

Those negative two points left me 0.12 points shy of Scott faster than two shakes of a lamb’s tail. It was over. One of the greatest football games in history to culminate the best weekend of professional football in the history of the game.

The opportunity was there for me and I blew it, just like the Bills did. I bet on a good defense and that unit was crushed under the staggering talent of a guy who prefers his steak well done with ketchup. I need to redeem myself for the medium-rare, salt and pepper crowd. I have a lot of ground to cover, so bear with this hyper-aggressive build.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,600

DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 19: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals warms-up before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on December 19, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

I contemplated sending Tanny a spring-loaded box of phallic confetti, but I’m too lazy to ultimately follow through with it. Joe Scheisty is the Bee’s Knees these days and too many have already forgotten what he did to this defense only three weeks ago. I think he does it again.

RB – Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kansas City Chiefs – $5,300

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 23: Clyde Edwards-Helaire #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts during the game against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Jerick McKinnon is more popular and affordable this week. So what? Until the Wild Card round, Jet was completely irrelevant. Last week, CEH looked infinitely more explosive in his first game back from a shoulder injury. I follow trends and the 2020 first round pick is trending toward a bigger workload against a getable Bengals front.

RB – Elijah Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers – $5,900

Mitchell was smothered last week by Green Bay. To be fair, it was zero degrees outside and the Packers smartly loaded the box because Jimmy Garoppolo is gourmet refuse. The running game is the key to San Francisco reaching their second Super Bowl in the last three seasons, especially against their bitter rivals.

WR –  Odell Beckham Jr. – LA Rams – $5,100

TAMPA, FLORIDA – JANUARY 23: Devin White #45 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defend as Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Los Angeles Rams runs with the ball in the first quarter of the game in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Davante Adams still got his last week, but I was impressed with how they limited his ability to turn small plays into big ones. This secondary has almost no skill, but their scheme has saved them all season. This leads me to believe they will be hyper-focused on Cooper Kupp and will challenge Matthew Stafford to make plays to his other weapons. OBJ has lived in the end zone since he was “marooned” in southern California. I hope for his sake that he can advance to the Big Game to flip the double birds to Cleveland yet again.

WR – Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,700

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – JANUARY 22: Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals makes a catch in front of cornerback Elijah Molden #24 of the Tennessee Titans in the second half of the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Nissan Stadium on January 22, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

I am going full-on air raid attack on this banged-up KC secondary. Burrow will be forced to sling it to keep up with the Ketchup King. Chase is the best rookie receiver in history. Zac Taylor will continue to focus this offense on Number 1. Special players have their best games in big moments.

WR – Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals – $5,700

Independent of what Chase can accomplish, I believe the second-year pro out of Clemson represents a bigger matchup nightmare for the Chiefs. Higgins is 6’4″ and boasts elite hands and body control at the catch point. Steve Spagnuolo loves to blitz and put his corners in isolated coverage. They do have good ball skills out there, but Higgins is going to be a problem when those situations arise.

TE – Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs $6,500

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 23: Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs jumps to catch the ball during the game against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

I would have to be completely insane to not roster a Chiefs’ receiver this week. As much as I love Tyreek Hill this week, I did not have enough salary to squeeze him in. No matter, I will have the same insane upside with the best tight end in the NFL.

FLEX– George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers– $5,000

I think this is wild. $5k is an insulting salary for a tight end with potential to go completely nuclear and break the slate. I couldn’t stand idly by while Scott rostered Kittle for the Clash. I must break him. It’s another Kittle “body bag” game.

DST – San Francisco 49ers – $2,800

I was very close to picking the 49ers DST over the Bills last week. They were cheaper and they scored 21 points to -2 by Buffalo. Oh well. I’ll take the L on that choice and hope the Niners can force some more Stafford turnovers. It was the Rams who nearly blew a 27-3 lead last week, thanks to four fumbles. I just need positive points from San Francisco

Photo Finish

Last week I beat Bo by 0.12 for my fifth straight victory in the Clash of the Beards and Bellies. Every yard matters in the NFL and every fraction of a point matters against Bo. No time for victory laps. I have a H2H Championship to win. I’m still only up 37.42 points and no lead is safe with Bo lurking around. This week we only have three matching players, which means that it’s anyone’s game. I’m rocking double tight ends and a stable of high-upside wide receivers. Bo has the running back horse power. It should be another epic Clash, but I like my lineup and my chances.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,600

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – JANUARY 22: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals against the Tennessee Titans during the AFC Divisional Playoff at Nissan Stadium on January 22, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

I’m not surprised that Bo and I both rostered Joe Burrow this week agaisnt the Kansas City Chiefs. He’s currently a road underdog who is coming off of a 348-yard passing performance against the Tennessee Titans. Burrow might drop back to pass 50 times in this game and since interceptions only cost you one point, there’s tremendous upside for Burrow this week. I love stacking with this either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins. Bo went for the home run against me and stacked him with both. I love Chase this week, but if you can’t afford the price tag, Higgins is worth a look at only $5,700.

RB – Cam Akers – LA Rams – $5,000

TAMPA, FLORIDA – JANUARY 23: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams hands the ball off to teammate Cam Akers #23in the fourth quarter of the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Cam Akers fumbled the ball twice last week agaisnt the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, once when he was a few feet from the end zone no less. This week his $5,000 price tag leaves him begging for redemption in my H2H lineup. Akers 46 touches in two games are second to only Elijah Mitchell’s 50. I’ll take the home favorite discount running back every day of the week. Hell, I even stacked Akers with the Rams defense going away. Bite on that one sauce boss.

RB – Jerick McKinnon – Kansas City Chiefs – $5,100

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 23: Jerick McKinnon #1 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the ball after a catch against Jordan Poyer #21 of the Buffalo Bills during the third quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Until two weeks ago Jerick McKinnon has been a forgotten man in the NFL. Revived by the potent Kansas City Chiefs offense, McKinnon has 22 carries and 13 targets for a total of 35 touches the last two weeks. The Chiefs are 7.5 home favorites so I expect both McKinnon and CEH to be involved in the offense all night long. McKinnon has the PRR upside and has looked dangerous out of the backfield, racking up 135 yards and one score on 11 receptions. I’m hoping he scores 13-15 points.

WR – Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals – $5,700

Tee Higgin is one of the best values this week at only $5,700. I’m stacking him with Joe Burrow as a contrarian stack option to the Ja’Marr Chase stack. Bo has wisely decided to mitigate my stacking leverage and played both Bengals wide receivers. It’s a high upside move that could pay off big or backfire in his face. The good new news for me is that I have two out of the three plays, so if anything I’ve leveraged his leverage.

WR – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,000

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 23: Wide receiver Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs flashes a peace sign toward outside linebacker Matt Milano #58 of the Buffalo Bills as he heads for the end zone to score a touchdown during the 4th quarter of the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Tyreek Hill has the legit potential to score every time he touches the football. We saw his game-changing potential last week in the final seconds against the Bills. Sure he’s been more of a traditional GPP play each week, but we are down to the final two weekends of the Clash and at some point, you just do what Min Cash Peter would do and you play the best plays. Tyreek Hill is one of the best plays this week. Bo is missing out.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $8,800

I’m shocked that Bo didn’t roster Cooper Kupp. Guess he doesn’t like winning or points because that’s all that Kupp has done this year. He has 55.8 DraftKings points in two games on 17 receptions on 20 targets for 240 yards and a touchdown. Kupp hit the 100-yard bonus in both games. I’m expecting more of the same this week from the 49ers secondary and expect Kupp to find the end zone at least once.

TE – C.J. Uzomah – Cincinnati Bengals – $3,400

C.J. Uzomah has 13 receptions on 14 targets for 135 yards and a touchdown through two Cincinnati Bengals playoff wins. He’s averaging 16 DraftKings points per game and in a 54.5 total environment this week. I’m expecting more of the same for the cheaply priced Uzomah. Thankfully Bo still doesn’t believe an. d all these points will be mine.

Flex – George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers – $5,000

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – JANUARY 22: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers runs after making a catch during the game against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lambeau Field on January 22, 2022 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The 49ers defeated the Packers 13-10. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

This season George Kittle has 14 targets, 10 receptions, 60 yards, and a touchdown against the LA Rams. The San Francisco 49ers will need a big game from Kittle if they are going to stay in the game and pull off their third straight road upset. I expect Kittle to see 8-10 targets and with after the catch ability, has the potential to break one. Of course, Bo rostered him.

DST – LA Rams – $3,200

Jimmy Garappollo is the worst quarterback still playing in the playoffs and the LA Rams are the best defense still playing in the playoffs, it’s that simple. High upside defense in the lowest total game.

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Clash of the Beards & Bellies

Hey Siri, Play Invincible by TOOL

What kind of silver lining can be discerned on the heels of a four-game losing streak? What does one do in this precarious situation? Pray? Meditate? Drink themself into oblivion? For the first time ever, I found myself nodding along with Mike McCarthy. I know how to win at DFS. I know how to build lineups. I am not concerned about my future job security.

Scotty Stacks came ready like the 49ers did and smacked me around with a one-two knockout punch from Sexy Flexy (Deebo) and the Rams DST. I rolled all of the above questions into a tasty burrito of an answer. My rebuttal comes in the form of a truly nasty lineup build for the Divisional round. It is a lineup that will take Scott from the penthouse to the bourbon aisle. Cheers!

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans – $5,800

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – SEPTEMBER 12: Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans smiles on the field after a penalty during the game against the Arizona Cardinals at Nissan Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Cardinals defeated the Titans 38-13. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Tanny wasn’t his 2020 fantasy self this season. Far too many times, it was a product of the failing health of his most dangerous weapons. Tennessee will have all of them back this week. I am leveraging the Derrick Henry selection from Scott that I saw coming from 3,000 miles away. I am also predicting a three-touchdown game from Tanny, with one of them coming on the ground.

RB – Cam Akers – LA Rams – $5,500

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Cam Akers #23 of the Los Angeles Rams runs with the ball in the first quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at SoFi Stadium on January 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

I was an Akers truther from his last season at Florida State. Cam was ultra-impressive behind one of the worst offensive lines in NCAA history. Now, he’s the centerpiece in Sean McVay’s play-action crucible of an offense. The Bucs are not as immortal against good running backs as their reputation suggests. If a torn Achilles can’t keep Akers from dominating, neither can Vita Vea.

RB – Elijah Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers – $5,800

How can I possibly expect a late-round rookie to lead me to victory this week? If you’ve been following along, I was picking Mitchell ahead of Trey Sermon in rookie drafts in the preseason. He’s legit. Green Bay hasn’t been as porous against the run as in recent years, but the 49ers have zero chance of winning at Lambeau without sticking the ball in the kid’s gut at least 20 times.

WR – A.J. Brown – Tennessee Titans – $6,200

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: A.J. Brown #11 of the Tennessee Titans celebrates the win at the end of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Bills 34-31. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

This build is all about the unlimited upside of mega-stud wide receivers. I wish I could roster more than four of them. AJ Brown stacked with Tannehill is going to be a lethal combination against a red-hot Bengals team. At the very least, I’m hoping for the same type of volume he saw against the 49ers a few weeks ago.

WR – Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals – $7,100

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JANUARY 15: Ja’Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals makes a catch while being guarded by Desmond Trufant #10 of the Las Vegas Raiders in the second quarter during the AFC Wild Card playoff game at Paul Brown Stadium on January 15, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

I actually do envision this Titans-Bengals game to flow like the Titans-49ers game in primetime a few weeks ago. Instead of Deebo, my correlating runback weapon is the best rookie receiver in NFL history. The game plan last week against Vegas was beautiful, with the lion’s share of targets going to Chase. A repeat of that and I’m golden.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $8,600

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams runs with the ball in the first quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at SoFi Stadium on January 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Kupp too? In this economy? Oh yes. The owner of the second-most productive wide receiver season in NFL history also has a nice chance to rebound off his most modest game of the year last week. The Bucs are ultra-generous to opposing receivers, funneling off their elite run defense. Once again, I’m hitting all the upside keys this week to make up ground on dear Scott.

TE – George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers– $5,300

ARLINGTON, TX – JANUARY 16: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers on the field before the NFC Wild Card Playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on January 16, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. The 49ers defeated the Cowboys 23-17. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

Where last week was an obvious Deebo week, this game at Lambeau is a Kittle “body bag” game. He lit up the Pack in Week 3 and I expect more of the same in a winning or losing effort from San Francisco. He is usually too good of a blocker, but I think Shanahan can see this obvious matchup advantage in coverage.

FLEX – Randall Cobb– Kansas City Chiefs – $3,100

I’m taking a shot on this injury-mitigated price. Cobb has turned in five touchdowns on only 28 receptions this season. If San Francisco sells out to triple-cover Adams, Cobb is practically on the same cycle as Rodgers too.

DST – Buffalo Bills – $2,600

I don’t believe in the Chiefs this week. I might be wrong, but this Bills’ defense is literally built to beat them. Buffalo’s DST scored 17 fantasy points against KC earlier in the season and made Patrick Mahomes look like Daniel Jones. I don’t need that kind of performance, but I’ll gladly take it.

Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton


If you are not familiar with Formula One or F1 Racing, you are really missing out on some incredible drama. This past season was one of the most exciting to date, after nine-time and defending champion Lewis Hamilton was passed on the last lap of the season by rising star Max Verstappen to claim the 2021 F1 Championship in dramatic fashion. Well, call me Max to Bo’s Lewis because after trailing all season, being down three games twice, and losing nine straight last season, I finally passed Bo last week and am leading the Clash of the Beards and Bellies. We are adding up all the H2H points scored in the playoff rounds to determine who wins their choice of a bottle of expensive Bourbon if BO wins or Scotch if Scott wins. I’m currently leading by 37.3, but no lead is safe against Bo. Onto the Divisional Round!

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,600

Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are the truth! Burrow threw 34 touchdowns this year, 13 of them to Chase. Last week Burrow played well in his playoff debut, throwing two touchdowns and passing for over 240 yards. He peppered Chase with 12 targets, which he converted into nine receptions for 116 yards. This week he faces a Tennessee Titans secondary that finished in the bottom half of the league, giving up 20 touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Burrow’s other target on the outside, Tee Higgins has a 4-6 inch height advantage over Titan cornerbacks. The Bengals are currently three-point road underdogs, indicating that this game projects to be a back and forth contest that should keep Burrow passing throughout. Lock him in for Cash.

RB – Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans – $7,500

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – OCTOBER 31: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans warms up before a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Derrick Henry hasn’t played a snap since breaking a bone in his foot in Week 8. This week he is set to officially return to the Titans lineup against the Bengals and DraftKings priced him up at $7,500. Cheap by previous King Henry prices, but still the most expensive running back by $700. We all know Henry’s upside and understand his potential. There are risks embedded in his price, so if any word leaks from Titans camp that he might be limited at all in the game pivot, but I am not worried. Henry is a playoff stud!

RB – Devin Singletary – Buffalo Bills – $5,900

Devin Singletary is the Buffalo Bills RB1. Finally, after three years, it’s “Mission Accomplished!!” Singletary has been on a tear, no pun intended, the last five weeks. He’s touched the ball 94 times, has rushed for 404 yards and scored eight touchdowns. He’s currently priced at only $5,900, yet he’s the RB1 in the highest-scoring offense remaining in the playoffs, and oh, did I mention the touchdowns? Bo has been fading Singletary, while I have been using him to beat him. Once again I am going to the well, instincts don’t fail me now! 

WR –  Odell Beckham Jr. – LA Rams – $5,300

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Los Angeles Rams reacts during the second quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card Play off game at SoFi Stadium on January 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Odell Beckham Jr. has found a role for himself in the LA Rams’ offense. Last week he caught all four of his targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. This week OBJ faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary that Matthew Stafford torched early this season for over 200 yards passing and two touchdowns. Cooper Kupp performed so well earlier this season (nine receptions for 96 yards and two touchdowns) that the Buccaneers will be gameplaying to stop him, leaving OBJ with single coverage on the outside and also potentially in the red zone. At only $5,700, I’m Cashing this week and taking my points to the Clash of the Beard and Bellies vault.

WR – JaMarr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals – $7,100

What else can be said about Ja’Marr Chase except that Bo ruined my stack attack this week by rostering Chase in his Clash of the Beards and Bellies Build? No surprise given that Chase is one of the top upside plays for the Divisional Playoff Round, and because Bo loves tormenting me with his roster moves each week. Thankfully Bo only copied one of my picks this week, so we can finally separate the Beards from the Bellies.

WR – Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – $7,600

ARLINGTON, TX – JANUARY 16: Deebo Samuel #19 of the San Francisco 49ers runs after making a catch during the NFC Wild Card Playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on January 16, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. The 49ers defeated the Cowboys 23-17. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

Is Deebo Samuel a wide receiver masquerading as a running back or a running back masquerading as a wide receiver? Whether you label him a “Wide Back” or a “Running Receiver” the man averaged over 22 DraftKings points per game in the regular season and scored 20 last week in a defensive struggle against the Dallas Cowboys. There are so many reasons to like Deebo this week. PFF projects San Francisco with a decided run blocking advantage over the Green Bay Packers. Deebo has eight rushing touchdowns in the regular season, and one last week as well. Deebo also had over 1,400 receiving yards. There is no game script that does not include Deebo. He’s a Cash game must this week.

TE – Tyler Higbee – LA Rams – $4,000

I’m not in love with Tyler Higbee this week, but I love the game script, the price, the opportunity, the touchdown upside, Cooper Kupp leverage, who Bo is playing this week. At only $4,000 Higbee is a value play who has a good chance to score double-digit points. He’s averaging 13.25 DraftKings points per game over his last four games. And as mentioned before, his success directly takes away opportunity from his best play, Cooper Kupp.

Flex – Isaiah McKenzie – Buffalo Bills – $3,500

Isaiah McKenzie’s role in the Buffalo Bill offense is expanding. Last week he caught all four of his targets out of the slot. Cole Beasley was targeted one time. This week’s game on the road against the Chiefs will be different, but McKenzie is playing well and will be needed to take down the twice-defending AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs. I love McKenzie in space with the ball in his hands. He is fast and has big-play ability every time he touches the ball. At only 3,500, he’s a perfect addition to my winning lineup.

DST – San Francisco 49ers – $2,500

The 49ers are the cheapest DST this week, hence the inclusion in my lineup. I do like the possibility of a snow game, as of now, there’s a 50/50 chance according to weather reports for Sunday. The ball always has a funny way of bouncing, hopefully, it’s into the arms of a 49ers player taking it back to the house.

Featured

Nimble GPP: Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Divisional Weekend! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $7,600

MIAMI, FL – DECEMBER 02: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills leads the team on to the field prior to the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium on December 2, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Josh Allen started the playoffs where he left off the regular season, as the DraftKings QB1. He scored 41.9 points last week, besting Patrick Mahomes by 0.8. This week the two top-scoring quarterbacks square off in Arrowhead Stadium for the second time this year. I like them both this week, but Allen has the better defense behind him and Mahomes has a history of first-half home struggles. Allen’s rushing upside is undeniable as he’s averaging 68 yards per game over his last six games. Allen’s ability to move the pocket cost the Chiefs in their first matchup, giving up a long touchdown to tight end Dawson Knox on a blown coverage. Allen passed for three scores and added another on the ground, scoring 39.5 points in their Week 5 matchup.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,600

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JANUARY 02: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates after the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Paul Brown Stadium on January 02, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Remember when everyone criticized the Bengals and Joe Burrow for drafting Ja’Marr Chase over Penei Sewell? We are laughing, oh my, funny times really. Joe Burrow was eclectic in 2021, throwing 36 touchdowns and for almost 5,000 yards (4,855) in his sophomore campaign. Ja’Marr Chase was the number one reason for his success, snatching 13 touchdowns and breaking Justin Jefferson’s 1,400 rookie receiving record in the process. Enough good things cannot be said about the football these two played this year together. shades of the 2019 LSU National Championship season come to life in the NFL. The Bengals and Burrow head into Tennessee this week as three-point road underdogs. The Titans’ defense is one of the best at stopping the run, bad news for Joe Mixon fans, but they are susceptible to the passing attack. The Titans secondary ranks 31st in the NFL this season, giving up 41 points per game to wide receivers. Practically speaking it looked like 20 touchdowns and over 3,200 receiving yards. I’m not sure why more people aren’t aware of this. Oh, well.

Value – Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, LA Rams – $6,200

Matthew Stafford passed for 41 touchdowns in the regular season. Tom Brady only threw two more, for perspective. Stafford’s best DraftKings performance came in Week 3 against the Buccaneers defense when he passed for 343 yards and four touchdowns. I’m not expecting a repeat performance, but $6,200 is great value considering that Tom Brady is $600 more expensive and is missing a few of his weapons. With the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. and the return of running back Cam Akers, Stafford is loaded with offensive options this week. Stacking him with Cooper Kupp is always an option, the two combined for 96 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. I prefer the contrarian play of stacking him with the $5,300 OBJ and a $4,000 Tyler Higbee. My reasoning is, the Buccaneers will make adjustments to stop Kupp from running wild against them like he did in Week 3. Single coverage in single-high safety looks should be available to Stafford. If he connects, you win, big.

High Priced – Running Back

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans – $7,500

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: Running back Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans rushes in front of cornerback Taron Johnson #24 of the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Derrick Henry is back, just named the starting running back for this week’s Divisional Round Playoff game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Henry returns to a Titans team that flourished in his absence playing smash-mouth football. Henry is the King of smash-mouth football, he should fit right in. Not surprisingly, Henry is the most expensive running back on the DraftKings main slate at $7,500. He’s still $1,100 cheaper than Cooper Kupp and $1,000 less than Davante Adams, making him a bit of a value if you are establishing the run and building your team around running backs this week instead of high-priced wide receivers. The Bengals ranked 21st against opposing running backs this year, having given up 2,181 total yards and 16 total touchdowns. Henry should be able to find the end-zone and the 100-yard bonus is definitely in play for this home playoff game.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills – $5,900

The Buffalo Bills are the most explosive and dynamic offense in the playoffs due to Josh Allen’s ability to move the ball downfield. Devin Singletary has become the RB1 in Buffalo over the last month of the season. He’s rushed for over 404 yards and has scored eight touchdowns in the past five games. The Chiefs ranked 20th against running backs this season, giving up 23.70 fantasy points per game. I expect Singletary to get 20 touches in a game that should see plenty of high-value scoring opportunities given the 54 point total. At only $5,900, Singletary once again has the potential to be a top-three back this week at a discounted cost. I’m playing him in-game stacks with Josh Allen and also running him back in my Chief stacks.

Value – Running Back

Cam Akers, LA Rams – $5,500

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 17: Cam Akers #23 of the Los Angeles Rams runs with the ball in the first quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at SoFi Stadium on January 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Cam Akers returned last week to the LA Rams backfield after rupturing his Achilles in July of 2021. The return was remarkable before he set foot on the field, but it became legendary after seeing Akers form fully restored. He looked great, bursting through holes, making tacklers miss, and touching the ball 18 times. This week he’s priced at only $5,500 and could see an increased workload in this potentially high-scoring game against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – $8,500

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – DECEMBER 25: Davante Adams #17 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates a touchdown during a game against the Cleveland Browns at Lambeau Field on December 25, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Browns 24-22. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

According to PFF, Davante Adams has the best wide receiver/cornerback matchup of this week’s Divisional Round. Adams has a decided size and speed advantage, 30lbs to be exact, over both San Francisco cornerbacks. Rookie Ambry Thomas, PFF’s 108th graded corner, with a score of 52.2 will be primarily tasked with stopping Adams. If Shanahan was smart, he will shadow cover Adams like Baltimore did earlier this season. But I don’t expect that to happen, and even if it does, Adams and Rodgers will find a way to beat it. The only things stopping Adams this week will be when the clock runs out. Adams is currently picking up only 23% rostership compared to 46% for Cooper Kupp. That’s the definition of leverage.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills – $6,500

BUFFALO, NEW YORK – JANUARY 15: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills takes a moment prior to a game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on January 15, 2022 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

Stefon Diggs priced at $6,500 is almost as wild as Tyreek Hill priced at only $6,600. The major difference is that Buffalo has the top-rated defense against wide receivers and the Kansas City Chiefs rank 22nd, having given up 20 total touchdowns and over 2,600 receiving yards. The Bills on the other hand gave up 1,894 receiving yards and only six total touchdowns. Be happy other people are chasing the Tyreek Hill chalk and “Stefon Diggs” it to them, as he did to the New Orleans Saints a few years ago. If you are worried about Diggs’ lack of production last week against the New England Patriots, don’t be. He wasn’t needed. This week he will most definitely be needed. Look for Diggs to see 8-10 targets and score 18-20 points.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals – $5,700

CINCINNATI, OHIO – JANUARY 15: Tee Higgins #85 of the Cincinnati Bengals drops a reception against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of the AFC Wild Card playoff game at Paul Brown Stadium on January 15, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Tee Higgins has one of the best size matchups this week against the Tennessee Titans. Jackrabbit Jenkins is 5’10” and Tee Higgins is 6’4” so that’s going to be a problem for the Titans on the outside and in the red zone. The good news for Higgins is that Ja’Marr Chase has been playing out of his mind this season, so he should see plenty of one-on-one matchups on the outside. Higgins has been the definition of “Boom or Bust” scoring 11 combined points the last two weeks, after scoring 46.4 in Week 16. Feast or famine, this week is trending towards feast and at only $5,700 it appears he’s an extra value meal.

Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo Bills – $3,500

Isaiah McKenzie is a bonus play this week! His $3,500 price tag makes him a perfect dart-throw in GPP contests if you want to spend up at wide receiver or tight end. Stacking him with Josh Allen or playing him as a run-back option in a Bills/Chiefs game-stack makes the most sense, but playing him as a one-off is also an option.

High Priced – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,800

TAMPA, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 07: Rob Gronkowski #87 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium on February 07, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers defeated the Chiefs 31-9. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Rob Gronkowski has 26 targets, 19 receptions, 282 receiving yards, and one touchdown in his last three games. It’s clear that without Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, Tom Brady is leaning on Gronk and he is averaging 16 DraftKings points per game. In a blatant attempt to drive increased rostership, they priced him at only $5,800, all but ensuring he will be popular. I don’t mind eating the chalk on Gronk as long as he’s stacked with Brady, otherwise, I’m playing cheaper options.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – $4,900

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 07: Tight end Dawson Knox #88 of the Buffalo Bills dives for a touchdown during the second quarter of a game against the San Francisco 49ers at State Farm Stadium on December 07, 2020 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Dawson Knox’s signature game this season came in Week 5 against the Kansas City Chiefs, catching three passes for 117 yards and a now-infamous touchdown over Daniel Sorensen. The Chiefs’ defense did get better the second half of the season, but Sorensen didn’t and the matchup is still very much exploitable. Dawson Knox scored two touchdowns last week, btw, if that matters for anything. I’m grateful that DraftKings priced him up a whole $100 after he scored 25.9 points per game. Stacking him with Josh Allen is my favorite way to play Knox, but he’s not lineup dependent on Allen and can be played without him.

Value – Tight End

C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals – $3,400

C.J. Uzomah was a great GPP/Cash play last week, scoring a touchdown and racking up 18 points and only costing you $3,200. This week he’s only priced up $200, making him another high-value GPP play at only $3,400. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgin pushing the boundaries on the outside of the field, we’ve seen it create opportunities and open up the middle of the field for Uzomah. His speed and size make him a dangerous red-zone option for Joe Burrow as we saw last week against the Raiders. If you are paying down for tight end, he’s your guy.

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Featured

Clash of the Beards & Bellies

Hey Siri, Play Invincible by TOOL

In a 21st century remix of Donny and Marie, I’m a little bit country and a little bit thrash metal. I’m feeling grizzled and battered from the DFS battlefield after this season like the warrior from TOOL’s amazing track, Invincible. With a heavy shield, I am struggling to remain consequential after losing three-consecutive Clashes to end the regular season.

But alas, I don’t really fear Scott’s ability to stack up with my strongest suit: small slates. I tried to convince him that we should break the playoff Clash into smaller daily and Showdown slates, but he was rightly suspicious and insisted on the full six games this weekend. No bother, I’ll dismantle him either way.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,400

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 11: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his touchdown reception against the New York Giants during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium on October 11, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

Far too many people are crowning the 49ers as a potential Cinderella story after their comeback against the Rams to barely sneak into the playoffs. Although Dallas doesn’t match up too well with San Francisco on defense, they wield a tremendous advantage at quarterback and wide receiver against the 25th-best secondary in the NFL. Dak will be throwing to wide-open receivers all afternoon behind the league’s best offensive line. Big Dak Energy and huge passing numbers are incoming in a convincing Dallas win.

RB – Leonard Fournette – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900

PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 14: Leonard Fournette #7 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs the ball against Alex Singleton #49 of the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 14, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Playoff Lenny is expected to be activated and unleashed at the perfect time. Philadelphia has absolutely no business in the postseason and will need to play perfect football to even cover the spread against Tampa Bay. Philly’s run defense is awful and they are even worse at covering running backs out of the backfield. Fournette will feast, even at 80% health.

RB – Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,800

CINCINNATI, OHIO – OCTOBER 10: Joe Mixon #28 of the Cincinnati Bengals runs for a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers at Paul Brown Stadium on October 10, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

The attention is deservedly going to Joe Burrow and the Cincy passing attack, but the Raiders are most worried about the guy who thrashed them earlier in the season. Mixon was a workhorse against Vegas, compiling over 120 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries. The Raiders defense is better suited to cover Jamarr Chase up, but they don’t have the big boys to keep Mixon from battering them.

WR – Jauan Jennings – San Franciso 49ers – $3,800

Jennings has been a very impressive riser this season for the Niners, beating out Brandon Aiyuk for targets in recent weeks. It might be due to Jimmy Garoppolo’s very poor ability to read defenses, but I like Jennings down under $4k to easily hit 3x value against a Dallas secondary that struggles to prevent yards after the catch.

WR – CeeDee Lamb– Dallas Cowboys – $6,200

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 22: CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys pulls in a touchdown pass against Jeff Gladney #20 of the Minnesota Vikings during their game at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 22, 2020 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)

The 49ers cannot cover CeeDee Lamb. He will draw coverage from the dried-up shell of Josh Norman and a bunch of second-string Nickel corners. The Cowboys double stack is my way of encapsulating the bulk of points scored in a high-total affair.

WR – Cedrick Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $4,400

Ced is producing more consistently than Amari Cooper these days (shocker) and more than tight end Dalton Schultz. His chemistry with Dak is obvious. I have Wilson as the best points-per-dollar play at any position on the entire slate. He is also my preferred stacking option with Dak if I go skinny.

TE – Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,300

Just as Matthew Berry poignantly tweeted earlier this week: Death, Taxes, and tight ends scoring against the Eagles. Gronk has been a target monster the last month. He has needed to be, with Godwin and Brown floating away in ashes. Brady and Gronk in the playoffs? Against the worst defense in the playoffs? Sign me up.

FLEX – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,100

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 14: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefswalks off the field after a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

A minor heel injury is shaping up to make Hill a nice little leverage play this weekend in GPPs. I just love that. He didn’t do much against Pittsburgh earlier in the season, but I just have a feeling that the Cheetah is on the verge of a Hiroshima-level explosion on Joe Haden and the Yinzers.

DST – Cincinnati Bengals – $3,000

Derek Carr has zero playoff wins in his career, so why is everyone seemingly predicting the Raiders to upset the hottest team in the NFL? I don’t get it. I believe this defense will force a bunch of Vegas turnovers and correlate perfectly with Mixon. Cincinnati will embarrass the Raiders on Saturday and send them back to Sin City with their mascara and eyeliner running.

Playoff Football!!

Last week I completed my regular season comeback, winning my third straight against Bo, and deadlocking our DraftKings H2h season series at nine wins apiece. I had never beaten Bo three times in a row, as a matter of fact, he beat me eight straight times last season. It was a dark time for the Nimble empire. I know Jeff Fischer isn’t proud of going 8-8, but your boy is thrilled to be .500 against a Cash game monster like Bo McBrayer.

Over the four remaining playoff rounds, we will be total our scores to see who has the most points at the end of Super Bowl Sunday. I’d say let the best man win, but we all know that would be Bo, so instead I will say let fortune favor the bold and may I all my deep balls be caught and all Bo’s dropped. Now excuse me while I spend my whole MLK weekend watching the NFL Super Wild Card games! If this isn’t heaven, I dont know what is.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,400

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 14: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his rushing touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

According to RunTheSims.com, Dak Prescott has the best point per dollar value for any quarterback on the DraftKings main slate. Dak’s weapons are also extremely reasonably priced, CeeDee Lamb at $6,200, Amari Cooper at $5,900, and my favorite stacking option, Cedric Wilson at only $4,400. Dalton Schultz is also a value at $5,000. Double stacking Dak makes the most sense given the 50.5 game total and Dallas ranking first in the NFL, averaging 31.2 points per game. The 27 points implied team total is tied for the second-most this week with Tom Brady and the Bucs. The San Francisco 49ers defense surrendered 29 total touchdowns to quarterbacks and ended the regular season ranked 23rd agaisnt wide receivers. This game should be the highest-scoring game on the slate and and I want in!

RB – Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,800

In three career games vs. the Raiders franchise, Joe Mixon has rushed 72 times for 338 yards and five touchdowns. In Week 11 this season, Mixon lit the Raiders up for 27.3 DraftKings points, rushing 30 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Mixon averaged 18.6 DraftKings points per game this season and is a great value at only $6,800. The Raiders finished the regular season ranked 30th against running backs, giving up over 2,200 total yards and 23 total touchdowns. The Bengals are currently six-point home favorites against the Raiders with a 26.5 implied team total. Time to establish the run.

RB – Leonard Fournette – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900

Leonard Fournette smashed the Philadelphia Eagles back in Week 6, turning 28 touches into two touchdowns and 30.7 DraftKings points. Fournette has been sidelined since the last month, recovering from a hamstring injury in Week 15 against New Orleans. Fournette has been practicing this week and looks to retain his starting running back role on Sunday. There are no indications that Fournette will be on a snap count, but don’t be surprised if folks are hesitant to pull him into their lineups. You know what they say, Fournette favors the bold.

WR – Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – $8,100

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 19: Deebo Samuel #19 of the San Francisco 49ers reacts after a play against the Green Bay Packers during the NFC Championship game at Levi’s Stadium on January 19, 2020 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Deebo Samuel is the truth! The man is a just built different. His eight rushing touchdowns tie him with running backs Nick Chubb, Melvin Gordan, and James Robinson on the seaon. His six receiving touchdowns and 1,405 receiving yards help make him an NFL ALL-PRO. Hell, he even throw a touchdown pass this season. The Dallas Cowboys don’t have an answer for the skillset Deebo possesses. The 49ers will look to utilize Deebo in the red-zone as a rusher and as a field strecher to move the ball downfield. I’m all in this week!

WR –  CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys – $6,200

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 22: CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates with teammate Michael Gallup #13 following a touchdown reception during their game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 22, 2020 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

CeeDee Lamb priced at only $6,200 is a steal this week. After being forgotten the last few weeks, Lamb should see plenty of volume against the San Francisco 49ers. Stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb is the play this week against a 49ers defense that relies heavily on zone coverage. Dwain McFarland from PFF tweeted that Lamb has a 22% target rate versus man coverage this season, with a staggering 32% target per routs run against single looks. CeeDee’s TD’!!

WR – Cedric Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $4,400

Cedric Wilson priced at only $4,400 is a glaring DraftKings oversight this week, but then all DraftKing players’ prices are trending low this week. Wilson has filled in nicely for an injured Michael Gallup, catching 11 of 12 passes for 154 yards, and three touchdowns in two games. He’s averaging 25.3 points in those two games and has been Dallas’s highest-scoring wide receiver the last two weeks. Shocker, Bo played him this week as well (eye roll).

TE – Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – $6,700

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 10: Buffalo Bills outside linebacker A.J. Klein (54) looks to tackle Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) in the third quarter of an NFL football game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs on Oct 10, 2021 at GEHA Filed at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Travis Kelce quietly finished second in tight end scoring this season, averaging 17.2 points per game. He caught 92 of 134 targets for 1,125 yards and nine scores, good enough to finish as the WR9 ahead of Keenan Allen, Hunter Renfrow, and Mike Evans. Let Bo fade him this week, it will be his undoing.

Flex – Camerson Brate – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $2,900

Camero Brate is my flex because he’s the best available player with the most upside and also because he is leverage agaisnt a Gronk explosion. Brate has seen steady target volume the last five weeks, averaging 3.6 targets per game. Brady has connected with him four times for touchdowns this year. Here’s to hoping he scores his fifth this week against the Eagles.

DST – LA Rams – $2,700

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 01: Aaron Donald #99 of the Los Angeles Rams waits to take the field against the Miami Dolphins during their NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium on November 01, 2020 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

The LA Rams defense is priced at $2,700. The disrespect. Arron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and company are currently the NFL’s top-rated defense according to PFF. Kyler Murray without his best weapon, DeAndre Hopkins, is still dangerous, making this a bit of a risky GPP like play agaisnt Bo. It’s the playoffs, go big or go home.

Featured

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to the NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – $7,300

KANSAS CITY, MO – SEPTEMBER 26: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs shouts to the crowd prior to the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium on September 26, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Patrick Mahomes ($7,400) has been the best quarterback in the NFL against the AFC for the last two seasons. Over the course of four games against the Texans, Titans, Browns, and Bills, Mahomes has thrown for 1,195 yards, 14 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Now he faces a Pittsburgh team that he dismantled in Week 16, completing 23 of 30 passes for 258 yards, three touchdowns, and a 134.14 passer rating. Big Ben already came out and all but admitted the Chiefs are going to win this game, the only real question is will be Steelers be able to put enough points on the board to keep Mahomes throwing all game. If they do, Mahomes could break the slate this week.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys– $6,400

According to RunTheSims.com, Dak Prescott has the best point per dollar value for any quarterback on the DraftKings main slate. Dak’s weapons are also extremely reasonably priced, CeeDee Lamb at $6,200, Amari Cooper at $5,900, and my favorite stacking option, Cedric Wilson at only $4,400. Dalton Schultz is also a value at $5,000. Double stacking Dak makes the most sense given the 50.5 game total and Dallas ranking first in the NFL, averaging 31.2 points per game. The 27 points implied team total is tied for the second-most this week with Tom Brady and the Bucs. The San Francisco 49ers defense surrendered 29 total touchdowns to quarterbacks and ended the regular season ranked 23rd agaisnt wide receivers. This game should be the highest-scoring game on the slate and I want multiple players from this game in my GPP lineup.

Value – Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, LA Rams – $6,300

Sep 12, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) celebrates in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Matthew Stafford and the LA Rams face the Arizona Cardinals for the third time this year Monday night at SoFi Stadium. Matthew Stafford has passed for 567 yards and five touchdowns in those two games. The Arizona Cardinals rank 29th against wide receivers this season, giving up 38 points per game. They led the league, but not in a good way, giving up 27 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers as well. It’s no secret that Cooper Kupp was the number one fantasy point producer in all of football in 2021. Playing Matthew Stafford means stacking him with Kupp this week. In week 14, Stafford and Kupp connected 13 times for 123 yards and a touchdown, good for 34.3 DraftKings points. Need I say more?

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High Priced – Running Back

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,800

In three career games vs. the Raiders franchise, Joe Mixon has rushed 72 times for 338 yards and five touchdowns. In Week 11 this season, Mixon lit the Raiders up for 27.3 DraftKings points, rushing 30 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Mixon averaged 18.6 DraftKings points per game this season and is a great value at only $6,800. The Raiders finished the regular season ranked 30th against running backs, giving up over 2,200 total yards and 23 total touchdowns. The Bengals are currently six-point home favorites against the Raiders with a 26.5 implied team total. If you do not choose to run out a Burrow stack with either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, make sure you roster Joe Mixon in your build.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900

Leonard Fournette smashed the Philadelphia Eagles back in Week 6, turning 28 touches into two touchdowns and 30.7 DraftKings points. Fournette has been sidelined since the last month, recovering from a hamstring injury in Week 15 against New Orleans. Fournette has been practicing this week and looks to retain his starting running back role on Sunday. There are no indications that Fournette will be on a snap count, but don’t be surprised if folks are hesitant to pull him into their lineups. You know what they say, Fournette favors the bold.

Value – Running Back

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals – $5,000

BREAKING NEWS: James Conner has missed practice all week, has been labeled with the dreaded “game-time decision” by Kliff Kingsbury and is trending towards sitting out with an injured rib. Welcome back Chase Edmonds at only $5,000!! If Conner does miss the game, Edmonds becomes one of the best values at running back with week. RunTheSims.com projects Edmonds for the seconds most running back points if Conner were to miss the game. The Rams are stout against the pass but have been susceptible to running backs all season. In Week 4, Edmonds gashed the Rams for 120 yards on only 12 carries. For all you non-math majors, that’s 10 yards per carry, and it translated into 20.9 DraftKings points. That’s good, right?

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Cooper Kupp, LA Rams – $9,000

Cooper Kupp’s 27.8 DraftKings points per game were the most of any player in 2021, quarterbacks included. Even more impressive, Kupp won the receiving triple crown, leading the league in receptions (145), yards (1,947), and touchdowns (16). At $9,000, Kupp is the highest-priced player on the DraftKings main slate by $900 this week, and rightly so. In two games agaisnt the Cardinals, he has seen 28 targets. Kupp’s 191 targets were 22 more than the next closest receiver, which happened to be Davante Adams. Adjust your ranks.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – $6,200

CeeDee Lamb priced at only $6,200 is a steal this week. After being forgotten the last few weeks, Lamb should see plenty of volume against the San Francisco 49ers. Stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb is the play this week against a 49ers defense that relies heavily on zone coverage. Dwain McFarland from PFF tweeted that Lamb has a 22% target rate versus man coverage this season, with a staggering 32% target per routs run against single looks. CeeDee’s TD’!!

Value – Wide Receiver 

Cedric Wilson, Dallas Cowboys – $4,400

Cedric Wilson priced at $4,400 seems like a mistake, but then all DraftKing players’ prices are trending low this week. Wilson has filled in nicely for an injured Michael Gallup, catching 11 of 12 passes for 154 yards, and three touchdowns in two games. He’s averaging 25.3 points in those two games and has been Dallas’s highest-scoring wide receiver the last two weeks. I’m double stacking Dak with Wilson and one other Dallas pass-catcher in all of my builds.

High Priced – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,400

Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady have combined for career 104 passing/receiving touchdowns, 14 of those coming in the playoffs. With Tom Brady missing both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, Gronk has stepped up the last two weeks, catching 14 of 20 targets for 252 yards. Brady and Gronk can kill you with touchdowns or volume. If the touchdowns and the volume come, HOLY HELL its gonna be BIG BABY!!!

Mid-Range – Tight End

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders– $5,700

Good news, Darren Waller returned to the Las Vegas Raiders lineup last week and was immediately peppered with nine targets. Bad news, he turned those nine targets into two receptions for 22 yards and only 4.2 DraftKings points. Waller did play in Week 11 against the Bengals earlier in the season, and he performed well, catching seven of eight targets for 116 yards and 21.6 DraftKings points. Waller hasn’t been this cheap since the Trump administration, if he is fully healthy, watch out. Don’t kid yourself, Waller is a high-risk, high-reward play. But I, for one, am banking on him blowing up. The Bengals gave up over 1,000 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season. Just saying.

Value – Tight End

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals – $4,700

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 25: Zach Ertz #86 of the Arizona Cardinals celebrates a first down against the Indianapolis Colts during the second quarter at State Farm Stadium on December 25, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

Over the last four weeks, Zach Ertz has emerged as Kyler Murray’s go-to guy, being targeted 43 times or 10.75 times per game. Ertz has scored double-digit DraftKings points in all four games. Murray and the Cardinals are currently four-point road underdogs, which could mean a negative game script and increased opportunity for Ertz in the passing game. I’m not opposed to stacking him with Murray, but will also be playing him as a one-off in smaller GPP contests.

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Featured

Clash of the Beards & Bellies

Paging Jeff Fisher

I have unwillingly made this series very interesting. No more jokes. It’s incredibly irritating to have one single lineup completely bomb among 13 that were good enough to cash. That one lineup, for two weeks running, has been my Clash build.

It’s like that one episode of Family Guy, where Stewie cloned himself. He purposefully made his clone “Bitch Stewie” less intelligent so he would willingly do all his chores for him without question. Bitch Stewie eventually fell apart into a pile of goop because he was so unstable (and pooped in the bathtub). My Clash lineups have been precisely Bitch Stewie lately.

Week 18 is sure to be a whole hell of a lot of random craziness, but somehow Scott was looking over my shoulder to steal my homework. When we originally shared our Clash lineups (without any collaboration whatsoever), we had five matches. Guess I’ll have to sweep my house for hidden cameras (again). I really don’t want to be tied at nine wins apiece heading into the playoffs, so we’re breaking out the desperation lineup.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Tyler Huntley – Baltimore Ravens – $5,700

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – JANUARY 02: Quarterback Tyler Huntley #2 of the Baltimore Ravens passes the ball against the Los Angeles Rams at M&T Bank Stadium on January 02, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

The growth we have seen from Huntley in just a month of starting in place of Lamar Jackson has been staggering. Coming out of Utah, he was the epitome of a project. Now, he’s firmly in place as a clean step down from Lamar in this offense, instead of a cliff. The Steelers aren’t as good on defense as the Browns made them look on Monday. Huntley will have a great fantasy game.

RB – Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $8,300

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 02: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints breaks a tackle in the fourth quarter of the game against the Carolina Panthers at Caesars Superdome on January 02, 2022 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Scott is getting the double-barrel stud running back approach this week. The Saints get the Falcons this week in a win-and-in scenario. I believe the tandem of Kamara with Taysom Hill will obliterate this non-existent front-seven for Atlanta. Kamara is the top running back on my board in PPR ceiling.

RB – Jonathan Talyor – Indianapolis Colts – $9,300

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – JANUARY 02: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs the ball and is tackled by Trevon Moehrig #25 of the Las Vegas Raiders at Lucas Oil Stadium on January 02, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

JT wrapped up his rookie season last year with a 253-yard destruction of the Jaguars. He is 266 yards shy of 2,000 on the season and the Colts are playing the Jags again for their playoff lives. The writing is on the wall and JT has the most elegant penmanship.

WR – A.J. Brown – Tennessee Titans – $7,000

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – JANUARY 2: A.J. Brown #11 of the Tennessee Titans celebrates after catching a pass during a game against the Miami Dolphins at Nissan Stadium on January 2, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Dolphins 34-3. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

I sincerely hope we see a bit of Derrick Henry this week. Regardless, this offense runs through AJB. The Titans can clinch the all-important top seed in the AFC and accompanying first round bye with a win on Sunday. They would be crazy to not feed this monolith from Mississippi.

WR – Deonte Harris – New Orleans Saints – $3,200

Harris wasn’t a factor last week, after missing offensive installation practice with COVID. The short passing game will belong to him and Kamara on Sunday. Harris’ speed and elusiveness is endearing to Sean Payton. He should easily exceed 3x value on Sunday.

WR – Ray-Ray McCloud lll – Miami Dolphins – $3,800

I don’t love many wide receivers under $4k this week, but I do love the bonanza of low-quality targets that McCloud is getting. This is a low-ceiling play unless McCloud somehow breaks one or scores, but for PPR it’s okay I guess.

TE – Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – $7,500

BALTIMORE, MD – JANUARY 02: Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) makes a reception against Los Angeles Rams defensive back David Long Jr. (22) during the Los Angeles Rams game versus the Baltimore Ravens on January 2, 2022 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

I decided early on that I was going to try and beat Scott with Stars and Scrubs. Who’s a bigger star on this slate than Mark freaking Andrews? With Huntley at quarterback, Andrews is commanding a workload that has vaulted him into the Travis Kelce tier. With the way he is rolling, I wouldn’t trust any other tight end on this slate to get me where I want to go.

FLEX – Jonnu Smith – New England Patriots – $2,500

Would you believe that Jonnu is on the field more than Hunter Henry? Looking at the receiving stats, you would never guess it. Smith is still a supremely gifted athlete (and a well-compensated one). His curse is his elite blocking skill, where Henry cannot provide as much for the Patriots to win games. I might have been dead wrong about Jonnu’s usage for season long fantasy, but I have a hunch he will score this week, now that the fantasy season is over.

DST – Cleveland Browns – $2,600

Let me take you back to Week 9. The Bengals were hosting the Browns, and the Cleveland defense held the jungle tigers to 16 points. They sacked Joe Burrow five times, intercepted him twice, and recovered a fumble. They even scored a DST touchdown, giving them a very nice 18 fantasy points on the day. Cincinnati is starting Brandon Allen and Samaje Perine this week in a meaningless game for them. I think the Dogs will be barking here at a great value.

Call It a Comeback!!!

We have finally reached the last week of the regular season and agaisnt all mathematical odds, I am only one win behind Bo in our season long DraftKings H2H contest. Bo has nine wins and I have eight wins. It’s officially a comeback, as Bo has been stuck on nine wins since the Biden administration took over. I’ve inched my way back after being down three losses twice this year and with only a few weeks left to decided the official winner of the Clash of the Beards and Bellies, its anyones’ game!! Clutch your pearls Bo, this drama is a coming down to the wire. May the best man win!!

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Tyler Huntley – Baltimore Ravens – $5,700

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – JANUARY 02: Quarterback Tyler Huntley #2 of the Baltimore Ravens rushes past free safety Taylor Rapp #24 of the Los Angeles Rams at M&T Bank Stadium on January 02, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Tyler Huntley mans the helm this week for the Baltimore Ravens against their hated division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Technically both teams have a microscopic chance of making the NFL post-season, but more than likely this game is just for pride and fun. Huntley played well last week but just wasn’t able to punch the ball into the end-zone against a stout LA Rams defense. The Steelers are not the Rams and Huntley and the Ravens should be able to score touchdowns this week instead of future HOF Justin Tucker field goals. I’m stacking Huntley with Andrews and/or Rashod Batemen.

RB – Devin Singletary – Buffalo Bills – $6,000

ORCHARD PARK, NY – JANUARY 02: Devin Singletary #26 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball against the Atlanta Falcons at Highmark Stadium on January 2, 2022 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

Devin Singletary is $6,000 and the New York Jets are dead last in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs. This year they have allowed over 2,700 combined rushing and receiving yards and 26 total touchdowns. Devin Singletary rushed 23 times for over 100 yards last week. Another good sign this week that there should be plenty of volume for him in a game that the Bills are favored to win by 16.5 points. Bo’s hatred for Singletary makes this play all the more ironic.

RB – Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts – $9,300

Jonathan Taylor needs 266 yards to reach 2,000 rushing yards and he might actually get it this weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Whose fans, btw are planning on dressing up as clowns this week to mock their owner Shahid Khan. I know Taylor is expensive, but he did score 27 points in Week 10 the last time he play the Jags. I knew Bo would have him as well and I could not miss out in case he goes nuclear on Sunday.

WR – Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,100

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – JANUARY 02: Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is tackled on a carry by Bryce Hall #37 of the New York Jets during the second half of the game at MetLife Stadium on January 02, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Mike Evans is my lotto ticket against Bo this week. With all of Tom Brady’s wide receivers either hurt or quitting in the middle of games, Evans finds himself the last man standing in the Buccaneers wide receiving corps. Evans also will not be facing cornerback Stephon Gilmore this week because he is on the NFL’s COVID-19 list. Advantage Tom Brady and Evans. And also, huge advantage for me over Bo. Here’s to Evans grabbing two touchdowns to end the season strong and cement my win over Bo.

WR –  D.J. Moore – Carolina Panthers – $5,800

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 19: D.J. Moore #2 of the Carolina Panthers carries the ball after a catch over Taron Johnson #24 of the Buffalo Bills in the fourth quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Kevin Hoffman/Getty Images)

D.J. Moore is sixth amongst wide receivers with 153 targets this season. All targets are not created equally though, as Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, and Cam Newton have taught us. Still, 10 targets a game in a game environment that will force the Panthers to throw the ball, Moore is a great value at only $5,800. Bo thinks that he’s fools gold this week, can’t wait to see who is right.

WR – Deonte Harris – New Orleans Saints – $3,200

Deonte Harris returned from his suspension last week and caught both of his targets for 23 yards. A good sign given his time away from the offense. This week Harris and the Saints face the 27th ranked Atlanta Falcons secondary who have given up 2,555 yards receiving to wide receivers and 19 total touchdowns. Harris has a perfect price to pay off big with just a few touches. I was gutted to see that Bo had him rostered as well.

TE – Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – $7,500

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – JANUARY 02: Mark Andrews #89 of the Baltimore Ravens carries the ball as Jordan Fuller #4 of the Los Angeles Rams defends in the third quarter of the game at M&T Bank Stadium on January 02, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Andrews is the new TE1 in fantasy football. With four games of 29.5, 31, 38, and 44 points this season, Andrews has the explosive upside to win you a tournament and the value to help you crush your Cash game opponent. I want all the Mark Andrews this week and will be stacking him with Huntley in most of my builds. Apparently great minds think alike because Bo is fielding the same stack against me this week in the Clash. Barf.

Flex – John Bates – Washington Football Team – $3,000

The Washington Football Team has targeted the tight end position 100 times this season, or around six times per game. With Ricky Seals-Jones missing practice all week, John Bates will be stepping into the starting tight end role for the WFT this week against the New York Giants. Bates caught a touchdown in week 16, so there is potential for double-digit points from a 3K tight end.

DST – Miami Dolphins – $2,400

The Miami Dolphins are the cheapest paydown defense that I will play this week. I am not expecting much. Just hoping that they can keep the game close and turn Mac Jones over once.

Featured

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Clearly Ambiguous

It might be Week 18, in the aftermath of the most tumultuous fantasy football season in history, but there is one very unique main slate left for us DFS junkies. The DFS lobbies will be teeming with jilted season long losers and cash-flush winners alike.

The GPP sharks’ eyes will roll back into their heads from the alluring scent of fresh blood in the water. They live in a constant state of darkness and chaos, only emerging from their dungeons once the last petal falls from the 2021 campaign. Week 18 will shine light on some of the most obscure names in the NFL in a fleeting seven hours of commercial-free pandemonium.

The final week of the regular season precludes Black Monday, where all of the remaining bad coaches in the league are relieved of their duties. Some of those coaches will empty the clip and put forth a game that leaves listless fans wondering where that was all season. The others are lame ducks, their vacant, lifeless eyes peering beyond their doomed team into the distance.

My most successful DFS escapades have come in the final stanza of the season. I still enjoy throwing my hat into the DFS ring for playoff slates and other sports, but nothing beats a main slate sweat with players who haven’t seen this much playing time since college.

This is the final edition of Hot Cash this season. I want to put forth my sincerest thanks to all of you for reading this season. Hopefully, you all were equal parts entertained and enriched by this content. Feel free to send me a DM on Twitter.

Week 18 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

Gold-Plated

JOSH ALLEN: VS NY JETS ($8,100)

You’re going to want to focus on stud players with something meaningful to play for. Last season, the Bills had already locked up the top seed in the AFC going into Week 17. Josh Allen still played nearly the entire game and put up good numbers. This season, they are expected to steamroll the Jets en route to another AFC East title and potential first round bye. Allen will be a spend-up wrecking ball.

Rocking the Suburbs

MATTHEW STAFFORD: VS SAN FRANCISCO ($6,700)

The Rams are sick and tired of losing to the 49ers. Stafford has pulled through with some decent fantasy performances, despite turning the ball over at an alarming rate the last few weeks. Everyone will be focused on Cooper Kupp chasing history. The 49ers won’t be able to prevent Stafford from becoming the quarterback for the two most productive seasons for wide receivers in NFL history.

TAYSOM HILL: @ ATLANTA ($6,200)***

The Saints need a win Sunday. Standing in their way is a hapless Falcons team with a multitude of offseason distractions on the horizon. Hill is a fantasy dynamo, especially when Alvin Kamara is on the field. My projections have Hill as the highest points-per-dollar value on the slate.

Under the Table

TYLER HUNTLEY: VS PITTSBURGH ($5,700)

Right behind Hill on the points-per-dollar chart is the former Utah Ute, Huntley. He ran into a buzz saw with the Rams last week. Although Pittsburgh is decent up front, I can still envision Huntley putting up some serious points on them with a playoff berth on the line and Lamar Jackson not quite ready to go.

Running Backs

Gold-Plated

JONATHAN TAYLOR: @ JACKSONVILLE ($9,300)

You might recall rookie Jonathan Taylor facing the Jaguars in the final regular season game last season. If you weren’t impressed with the young man until that point, his 30 carry, 253 yard, two touchdown performance for the ages definitely brought about an emotional response. Ironically, he faces the Jags again to end the season and is a mere 266 rushing yards shy of 2,000 (with a playoff spot on the line).

ALVIN KAMARA: @ ATLANTA ($8,300)***

I’m all over the Hill-plus-Kamara tandem this week. The Saints can clinch a playoff berth with a win and some help from the Rams in the same late window. I think the rushing volume will be immense for both players, with plenty of the passing volume also falling squarely on Kamara’s shoulders. Atlanta’s front seven is a myth, so don’t fret spending up on AK41 and/or JT this week.

Rocking the Suburbs

DAVID MONTGOMERY: @ MINNESOTA ($6,800)

The DraftKings algorithm has racked up quite the criminal history with a few players this season. Monty is definitely on that list, especially this week. The Vikings and Bears are both out of playoff contention, but rivalries run deep. I also believe Matt Nagy is the type of coach with such supreme arrogance that he still thinks he’s coaching for his job. This will be a good, hard-fought game with Monty running roughshod over the 23rd ranked Minnesota rush defense.

DEVIN SINGLETARY: VS NY JETS ($6,000)

The longstanding sentiment that the Buffalo running game is all Josh Allen has recently been disproven with the emergence of FAU standout, Singletary. I recall watching the little guy dip and dart through the Conference USA under the tutelage of one Lane Kiffin. He has been making the most of his high-value touches the last three weeks, casting aside Zack Moss and Matt Breida after each led the backfield at times this season. I don’t need to tell you to roster running backs against the god damn Jets.

Under the Table

CHRIS EVANS: @ CLEVELAND ($4,400)

Joe Mixon is out for Sunday, relinquishing the backfield to Samaje Perine and the rookie Evans. Early in the season, when Mixon was nicked up, Evans proved to be a very potent part of the passing attack. Perine might be the “starter,” but I’ll always defer to the receiving threat. Joe Burrow is also out, giving Brandon Allen the reins to check down copiously against the Browns.

PATRICK TAYLOR*: @DETROIT ($4,000)

It remains uncertain how much the skill position starters will play for the Packers, given that they’ve already locked up the top seed in the NFC. I would be stunned if it was past halftime. With Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon likely to don street clothes early on, Taylor is an ultra-sneaky min-priced back with plenty of juice. Jordan Love will be check-down Charlie once he is taking the snaps.

Wide Receivers

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 07: Brandin Cooks #13 of the Houston Texans in action against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on November 07, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
Gold-Plated

COOPER KUPP: VS SAN FRANCISCO ($9,700)

It seems apropos that Kupp is chasing down Calvin Johnson’s receiving yards record this week. Megatron’s quarterback that season? Matthew Stafford. Back then, they were trying like hell to get Johnson to 2,000 yards and fell just short. Kupp will get a million targets in this game, both to chase Megatron and Michael Thomas’ 149 reception mark in 2019. Kupp will also be the avenue to which the Rams take to clinch the NFC West and possibly eliminate their bitter rivals from playoff contention.

AJ BROWN: @ HOUSTON ($7,000)***

The Mississippi monolith is the last remaining healthy weapon for Ryan Tannehill. The Titans need a win to lock up the top seed in the AFC and the only first round bye. They hold the tiebreaker over Kansas City by way of smashing them to pieces in Week 7. Even if Derrick Henry isn’t back in a major way this week, I forecast Brown to get a ton of work all over the field against a putrid Texans defense.

Rocking the Suburbs

BRANDIN COOKS: VS TENNESSEE ($6,300)

I tried to tell y’all about Cooks last week. He turned his NorCal reunion into 19.6 DK fantasy points and more than a 3x value. At only a $300 markup this week, and a much more favorable matchup against a bad Titans secondary, I will fire him up once more. Cooks is the most underrated and underappreciated receiver in the NFL. I will not be the one to overlook him and miss out on easy money.

DARNELL MOONEY: @ MINNESOTA ($5,900)

Andy Dalton is great for Mooney. Mooney is great for Justin Fields. Both statements equal Darnell Mooney is good at football. He is a target monster and it cannot be undersold how he has simply performed better than former All-Pro, Allen Robinson. I would love another 13 targets this week, but will settle with more explosive plays against an abysmal Vikings coverage unit.

Under the Table

RAY-RAY MCCLOUD III: @ BALTIMORE ($3,800)

Big Ben’s aDOT was disgusting on Monday night. McCloud has assumed the JuJu Smith-Schuster mid-range role in this offense, except the giant leap in athleticism over JuJu hasn’t been realized because Ben has been so erratic with his targets. Down at this salary, I will still take that 10 target game. Here’s hoping that the bludgeoned Baltimore secondary will relinquish more than 35 receiving yards.

DEONTE HARRIS: @ ATLANTA ($3,200)

I loved Harris last week, but it was unsuccessful. His bout with COVID left him with limited practice reps, which translated into limited snaps on the field. Now with a full week of practice with the first team, we will see the explosive playmaker get some more run from the slot and assume his regular play packages in the Sean Payton offense. This is a steal with massive potential.

Tight Ends

Gold-Plated

MARK ANDREWS: VS PITTSBURGH ($7,500)

Volume pays the bills and Tyler Huntley loves him some Mandrews. The Steelers aren’t slouches against the tight end position. They held Andrews to 9.0 fantasy points earlier in the season. That was with Lamar Jackson running around and torching the back end with Hollywood Brown. I believe there will be a different script to this game.

Rocking the Suburbs

ZACH ERTZ: VS SEATTLE ($5,300)***

I incorrectly assumed that Zach Ertz would score another touchdown in his third game against the Cowboys this season. He still garnered nine targets, catching seven of them for 41 yards. The Seahawks are horrendous in the middle of the field on defense. I can’t envision Ertz not getting another heap of targets in this game with much more upside.

PAT FREIERMUTH: @ BALTIMORE ($4,600)

When Diontae Johnson was placed in COVID protocols yesterday, I had the asterisks next to the Muth as my top play. Diontae was promptly removed from the protocols today, so the Muth is not quite as luth now. He is still a really solid value play at tight end this week, as the Ravens simply cannot cover receivers of any kind. The Steelers’ frustrating brand of high-volume, low efficiency and aDOT passing is going to flood the field in cheap PPR points.

Under the Table

JOSIAH DEGUARA: @ DETROIT ($2,900)

You might not remember this, but DeGuara was the third-round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, after the infamous Jordan Love pick and the less-controversial AJ Dillon in the second. Even if Green Bay pulls their studs early in this game, I do believe they give the Sacramento kid a long, hard look in this game with Love. That way, they might have some clarity in an offseason with many potential uncertainties.

Featured

Clash of the Beards & Bellies

I Got the Deuce-Deuce (In the Trunk of My Car)

Last week was the first loss I’ve ever taken to Scott in Capricorn SZN. Astrologically, this was a devastating defeat. The margin was as narrow as Tutu Atwell’s tutu. As the Roman calendar flips, so too will my strategy. I have blistered ole Scotty Stacks with a more aggressive approach in the past, but I’m rolling into ’22 firing from both hips with ivory-gripped revolvers. The West was won with good old fashioned whiskey-induced violence. This season’s Clash series will be won with a figurative version of the same. I know it will taste sublime…

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Trey Lance – San Francisco 49ers – $4,800

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 28: Trey Lance #5 of the San Francisco 49ers warms up before the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Levi’s Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

It is nearly impossible for a mobile quarterback with a cannon arm, copious weaponry, and a sub-$5k salary to bust. It doesn’t take a squinty-eyed genius to see the advantage to lineup building that Lance provides. Oh wow, even Scott saw it!

RB – Ke’Shawn Vaughn – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,200

I preach the importance of high-value touches in my Hot Cash article every week, so why wouldn’t I put my ramblings into practice this week to essentially close the book on the season series? Rojo is a fine play this week, but I much prefer the explosive Vaughn’s receiving ability and speed over a player who went to USC and frequently draws the ire of Bruce Arians.

RB – Darrel Williams – Kansas City Chiefs – $5,800

KANSAS CITY, MO – DECEMBER 26: Kansas City Chiefs running back Darrel Williams (31) is tackled by Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Arthur Maulet (35) in the first quarter of an NFL game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs on Dec 26, 2021 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Just like Vaughn, I can spend less salary to get a valuable piece of an explosive offense who is more entrusted with receiving work by his head coach. Darrel Williams isn’t flashy, but he does command those precious receiving touches for the Chiefs over CEH. Scott will bleed out from a thousand PPR cuts.

WR – Bryan Edwards – Las Vegas Raiders – $3,300

You might not have known this about me, but I have had a dart board in my garage for a long time. I can really fling ’em. I have dominated Scott all season, thanks to deadly accuracy on these dart throw receivers. Indy’s secondary is very opportunistic, but they have a tendency to get barbecued down the field. My gut says that it will be the South Carolina product that gets them this week.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $9,500

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 21: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams runs for a first down before he is stopped by Sidney Jones #23 of the Seattle Seahawks in the second quarter of the game at SoFi Stadium on December 21, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

Some of my builds this week have both Kupp and JT. Like a cat toying with its prey before the kill, I’ll just ride with Kupp this week and spare Scott the embarrassment. He has JT going, which is oozing with desperation. I don’t need to worry about Kupp’s production against a decimated Ravens defense.

WR – Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins – $6,700

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 27: Jaylen Waddle #17 of the Miami Dolphins reacts after catching a pass during the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome on December 27, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

The electric rookie from Alabama is as advertised. The rekindled connection between him and Tua Tagovailoa has been every bit as spectacular as the one in Cincinnati between Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. We haven’t even seen the full scope of Waddle’s downfield capabilities. Wouldn’t it be sweet if we caught a glimpse this Sunday?

TE – George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers – $7,100

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – DECEMBER 23: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers in action in the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on December 23, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

This is a big boi skinny stack. Kittle is a fade when the opposing defense has a good front seven. Houston is not one of those teams. I fully expect a gigantic target volume for Kittle from the gifted rookie, Lance. On top of that, Kittle’s reputation as a YAC monster is sure to re-emerge against one of the worst tackling defenses in the NFL.

FLEX – Michael Gallup – Dallas Cowboys – $4,800

Personally, I cannot wait for this game to kick off. It will be a measuring stick game between the Cowboys and Cardinals in the NFC playoff hunt. It will also be interesting to see if Gallup ends up as the best points-per-dollar receiver on this board. Arizona has very poor personnel on the corners, which until recently was buttressed by their pass rush.

DST – Miami Dolphins – $2,800

Next to the Chiefs, the league’s hottest defensive unit has to be Brian Flores’ Miami Dolphins. I haven’t been too enamored by the Titans on offense either. Without the benefit of Derrick Henry or a healthy Taylor Lewan, Tennessee is grinding out games with great coaching. That won’t be enough to light up the scoreboard against a Miami squad firing on all cylinders.

Football is a Game of Inches

I barely scraped out a victory last week against Bo, just by the skin of my late swap teeth. Josh Palmer was the difference. I cannot celebrate too much because I am still down 7 – 9 and in desperate need of a victory. If I have any hope of pulling off a miraculous comeback in our DraftKings season-long H2H Championship, I have to win this week. A $100 bottle of Whisky/Bourbon goes to the winner and offseason bragging rights. I’m rolling with proven performers like Jonathan Taylor and Sony Michel and volatile upside plays like Tyreek Hill and Trey Lance. Bo and I only share one common player (Trey Lance) which means we are in for a hell of a game!!

Happy New Year!! Hopeful 2022 will be better than 2021.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Trey Lance – San Francisco 49ers – $4,800

Trey Lance is a Week 17 wild card that I want to be injected into my veins. Football is truly a gamble every week, and who doesn’t want in on the biggest gamble this week? Thankfully Bo is of the same gunslinger mindset and chambered him in his H2H clip this week. Smart. You don’t need me to sell you on Lance, his rushing upside combined with receiving weapons like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle speak for themselves. Happy hunting this weekend everyone.

RB – Sony Michel – LA Rams – $5,800

INGLEWOOD, CA – DECEMBER 21: Sony Michel #25 of the Los Angeles Rams avoids a tackle by Ryan Neal #26 of the Seattle Seahawks as he runs for a first down in the game at SoFi Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

Sony Michel is in the Todd Gurley role, just like we all predicted. Don’t fight it. Just accept it. Sony Michel >>>>>> Todd Gurley. The sooner you can accept it, the sooner you can capitalize on it and start making up for lost money. In his last four games, he’s touched the ball 28, 21, 20, and 31 times. Sony is the goal line back. Sony is the PPR back. Sony is the back. Sony is back. More like, Sony is here. I for one am here for it. This week he has 20 point potential against the Baltimore Ravens.

RB – Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts – $9,000

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 25: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs with the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at State Farm Stadium on December 25, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

I was shocked that one Mr. Bo McBrayer, aka @Bo_McBigTime on Twitter, did not roster Jonathan Taylor this week. I am going to tell Jon Helmkamp on you, Bo. It was your fatal mistake this week. That’s all I need to say. Don’t overthink JT. He’s the best running back on the slate and will deliver today.

WR – Braxton Berrios – New York Jets – $3,700

Do you pour your Braxton Berrios before or after the milk? For me, it’s always before, and with ice. This week dig into your Berrios with a soup spoon (is there any other way to do it?) because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be stomping the New York Jets all day long. Zach Wilson will throw the ball 50 times this week. Berrios should see double-digit targets if Jamison Crowder and Elijah Moore are both OUT again this week. There’s milk dripping from your, never mind.

WR –  Antonio Brown – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,100

PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 14: Antonio Brown #81 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates with Ronald Jones II #27 after scoring a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 14, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Antonio Brown was a SMASH play last week, scoring 23.1 DraftKings points in a tough matchup with the Carolina Panthers secondary. This week Brown has a much easier matchup on paper with the New York Jets secondary. According to PFF, Brown has their second-best wide receiver grade for Week 17. Last week his 15 targets were second to only A.J. Brown’s 16. This week Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both OUT, meaning that it will once again be the Tom and Antonio Show. I’m playing him in 69% of my lineups.

WR – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $8,300

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 13: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after his third-quarter touchdown reception against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on October 13, 2019, in Kansas City, Missouri. Hill had two touchdown receptions in the game. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

The Kansas City Chiefs are five-point road favorites this week as they roll into Cincinnatti to face Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Vegas opened the betting at 49.5 and the public quickly bet it up to 51 points. This game has all the trappings of an offensive explosion waiting to happen. Tyreek Hill is often times the accelerant that facilitates said explosive games. Travis Kelce’s return should open up the field for Hill to wreak havoc in the Bengals’ secondary. At $8,300, I feel like it’s a no-brainer in Cash games.

TE – C.J. Uzomah – Cincinnati Bengals – $3,300

C.J. Uzomah has been boom or bust this year and in this matchup against the Chiefs, I am banking on a shootout to aid in his boom. The Chiefs have been pretty stout against wide receivers, but have been venerable to tight ends, giving up 849 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Uzomah has 23 targets in the last 4 games, meaning that the volume is there for a big payoff if he scores this week.

Flex – Tyler Lockett – Seattle Seahawks – $6,400

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – DECEMBER 26: DK Metcalf #14 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates his touchdown catch with Tyler Lockett #16 and Russell Wilson #3 during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Lumen Field on December 26, 2021 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

Tyler Lockett is one of the best football players in the NFL. The Detroit Lions’ secondary is the exact opposite. The average PFF grade for the top three starting cornerbacks is 49.1, with Will Harris (44.1) set to lineup across from Lockett. Lockett is more of a GPP play than Cash game, but I need upside against Bo. Lockett delivered for me in Week 14, scoring 30 points and burying Bo in the process. It’s Lockett week ladies and gentlemen and Bo.

DST – Denver Broncos – $2,600

The Denver Broncos DST is the cheapest punt defense I feel comfortable playing this week. It’s that simple.

Featured

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

The Hogmanay Plunge

There isn’t one nice word that rushes to the forefront to describe the year of our Lord, 2021. I’m fairly certain it would take some concerted effort to derive positivity from the most recent 365 and one quarter-day ellipse around our yellow dwarf star. It is assured that some of the most annoying New Year traditions will grace the television airwaves, coupled with icons of today’s pop culture (whom I struggle to recognize) sipping Dom Perignon from a private booth above the cesspool known as Times Square.

New Year’s Eve is decidedly a day of reflection, resolution, and any other re-(insert word) you can scrape from the dictionary. Since I, along with most others, haven’t stuck with a New Year resolution for more than a couple hours in the last decade, I went searching for a new tradition. I discovered some intriguing options.

In the Sacred Ground (say it in the thickest brogue possible) of Scotland, from where my ancestors hailed, folks spend the last two days of the Roman year celebrating Hogmanay. Hogmanay’s most popular tradition is the “first footing,” where one is encouraged to be the first to pay a visit to friends and neighbors, often accompanied by a symbolic gift of some type. On New Year’s Day, the locals culminate the celebration with a harrowing dip in the frigid Firth of Forth. This tradition is also emulated here in the US, sometimes called the Polar Plunge.

I take the plunge into my pool every January 1st, after I light a fire nearby and have warm towels pulled from the dryer. It’s quite the rush and feels amazing, but I can’t help but go full George Costanza, “I WAS IN THE POOL!” It also seems to be the only way I’ll ever hit the Olivia Newton-John notes from the Grease soundtrack.

In Italy and Spain, some wear new, red underwear (if it isn’t new, it isn’t lucky) and throw old things out the window. In Switzerland, they plop a dollup of cream on the floor for good fortune (and a sour smell that lingers into February). In Greece, they hang pomegranates from doorways, only to promptly smash them into the door for (you guessed it) good fortune in the coming year. The juicier the smash, the better the year upcoming. In Germany, the people melt lead and cast it into water to make shapes that help them see the future (ironic that lead poisoning causes blindness). My new favorite is the Catalonian tradition, where the children are tasked with finding L’home dels nassos, or the man with many noses. Apparently, he has as many noses as days are left in the year. The stupid kids don’t realize that on New Year’s Eve, he has but one nose and could be anyone. What a ruse!

The New Year is an opportunity, much like one on any other day. Time is a construct, but humanity is a species with cyclical idiosyncrasies. “New year, new me” is a genius way to sell cars and gym memberships. The new year rekindles our strongest feelings of body dysmorphia and other forms of psychological warfare. Some folks peel the shrink wrap off their Sexy Firemen of the Midwest calendar and strive to earn more money in the new year than in the last. I could always be richer and skinnier, but my new year begins the day after the Super Bowl.

Of course, we could all use an extra jingle in our pockets in 2022. What better way than to take a polar plunge into the DraftKings coffers with another profitable NFL DFS main slate? We have now stacked two wildly successful weeks together and are hitting a stride as elegant as AJ Brown’s to wrap up the 2021 regular season. Our value section, “Under the Table” was insanely profitable in Week 16, featuring Joe Burrow, Justin Jackson, Byron Pringle, and Isaiah McKenzie. Save some ball-drop bubbly for Sunday afternoon when we do it again!

Week 17 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

Gold Plated

JOSH ALLEN: VS ATLANTA ($8,000)

Josh Allen is a freaking stud. He does it all for the Bills, who looked like a championship contender again last week in Foxborough. The Falcons are jockeying for a higher draft pick at this point, while Buffalo is fighting for that top seed again. I expect an easy 25-30 points from Allen this week.

MATTHEW STAFFORD: @ BALTIMORE ($7,100)

The hits keep coming for this decimated Ravens’ secondary. They were utterly embarrassed by their hated division rivals last week, relinquishing over 500 passing yards to Joe Burrow & Co. This week, they get the most productive wide receiver in the game today and his gunslinger quarterback. Stafford tends to do well when his receivers are running wide open all game.

Rocking the Suburbs

JOE BURROW: VS KANSAS CITY ($6,900)

Whew! I was one of the few who predicted Joe Burrow to be the best quarterback play on the board last week. The Chiefs have completely flipped the early season script, going from one of the worst defenses to one that is formidable and fearsome. I still love the matchup advantages for the Bengals here, especially through the air. Burrow and his trio of gifted wideouts will still rack up the passing production and return value, even at a cool G more expensive than last Sunday.

JALEN HURTS: @ WASHINGTON ($6,600)

Hurts usually is a slow starter to games, but has the sixth-highest FPPG on DraftKings among quarterbacks. He is priced as the tenth-highest salary this week against a defense that was literally fighting each other on the sidelines in Dallas last week. The Birds might not have the firepower to hang a 50-burger on the no-namers, but Hurts will be a perpetual value on DK, with upside to spare.

Under the Table

TREY LANCE: VS HOUSTON ($4,800)***

After another string of lies spewed from Kyle Shanahan’s lips, we should have already known that Jimmy Garoppolo wasn’t suiting up with the ligament in his throwing thumb completely torn from the bone. I, along with the Texans, have been preparing for Lance to get the start this week at a scintillating price. It will be incredibly chalky to roll the rookie out in GPP contests, but for cash games he provides a points-per-dollar value that helps immensely with filling out a surefire winner.

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 25: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs with the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at State Farm Stadium on December 25, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

Running Backs

Gold Plated

JONATHAN TAYLOR: VS LAS VEGAS ($9,000)***

JT is a generational running back who is matchup proof and gets the volume he deserves every week. He is facing a Raiders defense that is 30th versus opposing running backs. Jonathan Taylor is only $9k this week. Roster Jonathan Taylor and build from there.

Rocking the Suburbs

DAVID MONTGOMERY: VS NY GIANTS ($6,500)

Monty was one of my core plays last week, with resounding success. His volume is the main attraction for cash games, which overcomes any lack of efficiency in an offense run by the inept and moronic Matt Nagy. Even at $800 more than last week, I don’t see any reason to fade Monty against the most pathetic excuse for a franchise in the NFL.

DEANDRE SWIFT: @ SEATTLE ($6,000)

He’s baaaaack! Where I never believe Shanny, I really trust Dan Campbell. He says Swift looks incredible and is operating at full strength. We just saw what a heavy running game can do to the reeling Seahawks. The Georgia Bulldog will smash on Sunday, hopefully without much chalk in GPP because of the uncertainty around his workload.

Under the Table

KE’SHAWN VAUGHN*: @ NY JETS ($5,200)

As much as it pains me to agree with Fantasy Mansion, Matt Kelley, I cannot ignore the writing on the wall that Vaughn has a brighter future in Tampa Bay than Ronald Jones. Either back is fine to roster this week against the god damn Jets, but I’ll err on the blowout and better receiving narrative with the kid from Vandy. I’m not enamored with the price hike on the lower end running backs by DK, but I’ll still get great value with guys who will be on the field and getting high-value touches.

Wide Receivers

Gold Plated

COOPER KUPP: @ BALTIMORE ($9,500)

Kupp is the most productive receiver in the game today and faces one of the weakest coverage units on Sunday. My only concern is that the embarrassment of passing riches for the Rams might not require as much of a concentration of target volume for Kupp, resulting in an albatross of salary weighing down a winning build. I still won’t lose sleep with him in there either.

STEFON DIGGS: VS ATLANTA ($7,900)

One of the best skinny stacks on the board is the tried-and-true Allen to Diggs stack. The Falcons have one good defensive player on their entire team, AJ Terrell. He won’t draw Terrell on every snap, which leaves him running amok most of the game. I believe Diggs will see a ton of target volume in this game and return insane value if he finds the end zone.

Rocking the Suburbs

JAYLEN WADDLE: @ TENNESSEE ($6,700)***

There was a lot of uncertainty around the Bama rookie during draft season. We hadn’t seen him in game action since fracturing his ankle early in the 2020 season. We now know why he was such a heralded prospect. Waddle has taken the league by storm in the second half and now has a date with a Titans secondary that is atrocious. I will be waddling on Sunday because of how overweight I will be on him in my builds.

BRANDIN COOKS: @ SAN FRANCISCO ($6,000)

Beware the COVID weight loss journey, but also heed my advice on this pick. NorCal native (Stockton) Cooks returns to the Bay Area to face a really bad secondary. His target volume from Davis Mills (from Stanford) has been stupendous this season. I think the Texans make this a game against the 49ers, via an explosive passing game from Mills and Cooks.

Under the Table

MICHAEL GALLUP: VS ARIZONA ($4,800)

I was playing Cowboys receiver roulette last Sunday night for the Showdown slate and correctly guessed Amari Cooper and Dalton Schultz. This week, I’m hitching my wagon to the uber-talented Colorado State product, Gallup. He is playing for a big contract and will be barking loudly against the 27th-best defense at defending wide receivers. The salary is downright insulting, which is perfect for cash games.

ZAY JONES*: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($3,900)

The sneakiest target monster in the NFL lately has been Jones, averaging more than seven looks over his last five games. Where Hunter Renfrow has deservedly seen a big salary hike over that time frame, Zay has not. I will slip him into certain cash lineups as a final puzzle piece, and won’t even feel bad about sliding down to Bryan Edwards against an opportunistic-but-burnable Indy secondary.

Tight Ends

Gold Plated

TRAVIS KELCE: @ CINCINNATI ($7,300)

No, I’m not fading Mark Andrews. I just prefer Kelce and Kittle for this particular slate. I fully expect a massive shootout between these two teams, which typically means Kelce and/or Tyreek Hill is melting the nuclear reactors. I believe the Rams will have an answer for Andrews, where the Bengals won’t for Kelce.

GEORGE KITTLE: VS HOUSTON ($7,100)

We found out last week that the way to predict a down week for Kittle was when the 49ers face a formidable front seven, Fake sharp Shanny will keep his prized tight end in to use his magnificent blocking skills and run fewer passing routes. Houston poses no such front, giving me extreme optimism that the rookie quarterback will lean on Kittle all game.

Rocking the Suburbs

ROB GRONKOWSKI: @ NY JETS ($6,200)

Mike Evans is still on the mend from his hamstring injury and Antonio Brown missed Thursday and Friday practice with his ankle flaring up. Gronk could be in line for a nice bump in volume this week in a game that nobody expects to be close. I do know that Brady and Gronk have bullied the Jets for many years and Sunday is primed to be a throwback performance.

ZACH ERTZ: @ DALLAS ($5,200)***

How very rare for a player to face the same team three times in one season. Ertz has owned the Cowboys in his career as an Eagle and scored in each of his games against them this season, including the contest right before his trade to the desert. I hate to say it, but I had Ertz locked into my DFS lineups for both of those games and will do it again on Sunday. Ownage is ownage.

Under the Table

COLE KMET: VS NY GIANTS ($3,400)

It has been a sad week, with the deaths of the beloved John Madden and Betty White. Jimmy Graham(pa) as a red zone vulture is alive and well, keeping the young Kmet’s salary very reasonable for his consistent target volume. This has been remarkable, with the revolving door at quarterback and a buffoon coaching the team. The Giants are terrible at every facet of the game, including covering tight ends as talented as Kmet.

Featured

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

Dobermans and Razor Wire

Before I wax poetic about my return to form last week, I would like to wish the Simpson family a very merry Christmas. A man is only as good as his supporting cast and Rose and the girls tolerate Scott at a dosage level that inferior beings would quickly succumb to. All kidding aside, Scott is a brother to me. The parallels we share from 3,000 miles apart are remarkable. We each have enough empathy for one another to share stories and experiences without judgment.

Scott’s attempt to defeat me for the third-consecutive week was thwarted when Mark Andrews put on a clinic against the Packers. The rest of my Week 15 lineup was shadier than the business practices of a repo car lot. I put together a tougher pack of guard dogs this week. Our respective Cash and GPP articles were near perfect matches this week, so it’s no wonder that there will be only a few swing players in this week’s Clash. I only need a couple more wins to clinch the season series. Scott doesn’t know yet, but the Clash loser buys the winner a nice bottle of whiskey. Cheers to you, brother!

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles– $6,400

PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 19: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) yells to the crowd during the game between the Washington Football Team and the Philadelphia Eagles on December 21, 2021 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

This is the type of offense that Nick Sirianni gets the very most out of his young quarterback. Hurts has been one of the very best fantasy quarterbacks all season, but we benefit from the Tuesday game pricing blind spot this week. The Giants are a pathetic excuse for a franchise and might give up 300 rushing yards to the Birds, with Hurts doing his best Josh Allen impersonation.

RB – Cordarrelle Patterson – Atlanta Falcons – $6,700

Sexy Flexy isn’t picking up a lot of fanfare this week, after putting up a rare dud in Week 15. Patterson is still a cheat code in PPR, picking up an insane amount of high-value touches each game. He also has tremendous touchdown upside with his specialized role in the Arthur Smith offense. Detroit has failed to slow down any type of running back or wide receiver this season. That’s nice, because Cordarrelle is both.

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 19: Cordarrelle Patterson #84 of the Atlanta Falcons runs the ball in the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,900

The only thing missing from JRob’s solid performance last week was the big play. I suspect they will come in bunches this week against the Jets’ historically bad season against running backs. Darrell Bevell believes in giving Robinson a full workload, early and often. I believe he could go for 30-plus points this week.

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 19: James Robinson #25 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs the ball as Garret Wallow #32 of the Houston Texans falls while looking to make a tackle during the third quarter at TIAA Bank Field on December 19, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)

WR – Odell Beckham Jr. – LA Rams – $5,300

Cooper Kupp is obviously the alpha dog of this receiving corps, but don’t sleep on OBJ’s ever-increasing role. The Vikings’ secondary is putrid enough to feel very confident in Beckham’s potential at nearly a $4k discount off Kupp. From what we’ve already seen from OBJ in LA, it’s safe to say that the Browns be the Browns.

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 13: Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Los Angeles Rams stands on the sidelines during the third quarter of the NFL game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on December 13, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Rams defeated the Cardinals 30-23. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $9,100

I know I just talked about leveraging Kupp with Beckham, but there is absolutely zero chance I’m forgoing the league’s most productive receiver against the worst coverage unit in football. Regardless of his cap hit on DK, the 20-point floor is ultra-coveted in cash games like this.

INGLEWOOD, CA – DECEMBER 21: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams pushes off Sidney Jones #23 of the Seattle Seahawks after a complete pass during the game at SoFi Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

WR – Byron Pringle – Kansas City Chiefs – $3,300

Even with Tyreek Hill getting the green light to come off the COVID list, I’m all about Pringle’s big-play ability against a vulnerable Pittsburgh back end. Mahomes has shown more trust in Pringle than with Hardman or Robinson. Needing only double digits to 3-max value on a player with this much potential is exactly what I’m looking for to put the cherry on top of a DFS build.

TE – Dallas Goedert – Philadelphia Eagles – $5,100

Mark Andrews and Goedert were each smashing successes in Week 15. The former helped me hit one of my best scores of the season and the latter padding my wallet on the Tuesday slate. Goedert, like Jalen Hurts, was priced for Week 16 before his massive Week 15 game on Tuesday. This kind of edge is very helpful in cash games to fortify lineup builds with the most potential value. Plus, the Giants really suck.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 21: Dallas Goedert #88 of the Philadelphia Eagles warms up prior to the game against the Washington Football Team at Lincoln Financial Field on December 21, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

FLEX – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $5,700

It is Monty season, you guys just might not be aware at this point. He touched the ball 23 times last week against Minnesota, which included five receptions. The Vikings are much tougher on running backs than the Seahawks, who allow the second-most points to opposing running backs in the NFL (only the Jets are worse). A sub-$6k Monty in this situation feels like Santa left it under the tree.

DST – Chicago Bears – $2,500

It is a calculated risk to use a struggling defense, but stacking the Bears with Monty gives a nice correlation to my build. I also don’t fear the Seahawks’ offense one bit. Russell Wilson has been horrible since returning from the dreadful mallet finger injury. He is in typical late-season Mr. Ultra-Limited form and I expect the Bears to get after him.

Down, But Not Out

Last week my comeback was cut short when Dak Prescott shit the bed and Pat Freiermuth was knocked out of the game with an injury. Bo ended my short-lived 2-game winning streak before it ever got going. This week I am down, but not out. I’ve assembled a Week 16 team that I am confident will be able to take Bo down. Our lineups are eerily similar, both rostering Jalen Hurts, David Montgomery, James Robinson, Cooper Kupp, and Byron Pringle. It will come down to matchups like OBJ vs. Keenan Allen and Mark Andrews vs. Dallas Goedert to settle it. I’m confident my team will bring me one step closer to my ultimate goal of winning the 2021 Clash of The Beard and Bellies Championship!

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles – $6,500

Death, Taxes, and Jalen Hurts in Cash. Hurts has been consistent all season long, scoring 19 or more DraftKings points in 10 of 13 games. RunTheSims.com has Hurts as the top point per dollar play this week for quarterbacks. The Giants are a shell of themselves and Hurts should be able to move the ball downfield all game long. I just love that Bo is playing him as well.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $5,700

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is dm.jpeg
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – DECEMBER 20: David Montgomery #32 of the Chicago Bears carries the ball during the first quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field on December 20, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

David Montgomery rolls into Week 16 averaging 16.2 DraftKings points per game over his last four games. This week Montgomery faces a Seattle Seahawks rush defense that ranks 31st in the NFL, giving up 29.4 points per game. Expect Matt Nagy to feed Montgomery all game long. A potential negative games script could also mean more targets as the Bears play catchup. I’m not shocked at all that Montgomery found his way into Bo’s lineup this week as well.

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,900

James Robinson is back!! Last week he saw 24 opportunities, rushing for 75 yards and a score, picking up 17.8 DraftKings points along the way. This week Robinson faces the New York Jets defense that ranks 32nd to running backs this season. Their futility is remarkable. They have surrendered over 2,500 rushing and passing yards combined and 25 total touchdowns. Robinson is currently projected around 10% rostership, making him a great play in all GPP formats this week.

WR – Keenan Allen – LA Chargers – $7,700

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 16: Keenan Allen #13 of the Los Angeles Chargers celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at SoFi Stadium on December 16, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Keenan Allen is a sixth amongst NFL wide receivers with 134 targets this season. Allen has a 27% target share and over his last seven games, Allen is averaging 10.9 targets per game. That’s translated into 20.5 DraftKings points per game. With Austin Ekeler OUT this week on the NFL’s COVID-19 list, the offense should be on Herbert’s shoulders, making Allen a top play this week. Bo is going to be kicking himself for not rostering him.

WR –  Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $9,100

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 21: Ugo Amadi #28 of the Seattle Seahawks tackles Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams on a pass play during the second quarter of a game at SoFi Stadium on December 21, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Cooper Kupp leads all NFL wide receivers in targets (164), receptions (122), receiving yards (1,625), and touchdowns (14). Kupp has scored over 30 DraftKings points in six games this year. He’s the best wide receiver play each and every week. Don’t overthink this one. Kupp is a Gronk smash into your lineup this week.

WR – Byron Pringle – Kansas City Chiefs – $3,300

The Byron Pringle play has lost s bit of its bloom given that both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are not expected to be cleared to play on Sunday. This will ultimately limit Pringle’s upside. Thankfully Bo took the bait on Pringle as well so I won’t be wallowing alone.

TE – Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – $7,000

BALTIMORE, MD – DECEMBER 19: Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) makes a leaping one-handed catch over the middle but can bring it down for a catch during the Green Bay Packers versus Baltimore Ravens NFL game at M&T Bank Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Mark Andrews is the TE1 this year in DraftKings scoring, averaging 18.2 points per game. Andrews leads all NFL tight ends with 122 targets, 85 receptions, and eight touchdowns. He’s averaging 10.6 targets per game over his last five games and is the Ravens’ number one receiving threat whether Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley is under center. His 11% rostership is reasonable given his 30 plus point upside this week. Andrews is worth running out naked or pairing with Huntley if he gets the start in place of Lamar.

Flex – Cameron Brate – Tampa Bay Buccaneers– $2,500

It’s no secret that Tom Brady will be down both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans this week against the Carolina Panthers. I’m not expecting too much from Cameron Brate this week, all I need is 8 points. If he scores a touchdown, it’s icing on the cake.

DST – Minnesota Vikings – $2,400

The Minnesota Vikings are the best punt defense that I can afford with my remaining $2,400. I’m not thrilled about it, but there’s nothing I can do about it if I want to play studs like Keenan Allen and Mark Andrews in my lineup. It’s a deal with the devil for sure.

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Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 16! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Justin Herbert, LA Chargers – $7,200

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 16: Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers passes the ball under pressure from Tershawn Wharton #98 of the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half of a game at SoFi Stadium on December 16, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

According to RunTheSims.com, Justin Herbert has one of the highest ceilings of all the Week 16 quarterbacks. Over his last four weeks, Herbert is averaging over 28 points per game. This week he faces a Texans defense that down a significant number of defensive starters due to a COVID-19 outbreak. I love pairing Herbery up with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in this matchup. Stacking both players allows you to leverage the field a bit. If you are looking to differentiate, currently Josh Palmer is only projected for 1% rostership, making him the best leverage play in this game given Jalen Guyton’s absence due to being placed on the NFL’s COVID-19 list. The Chargers and Herbert should have no problem finding the end-zone this week against the hapless Texans.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals – $5,900

DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 19: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals warms-up before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on December 19, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

The last time Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals played the Ravens, Burrow passed for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. Rookie sensation, Ja’Marr Chase, turned 10 targets into eight receptions for 201 yards and a score. Tee Higgins saw 15 targets that game, as Burrow exploited a weak Ravens’ secondary all day long. Fast forward to Week 16 and not much has changed for the Ravens. They just got torched by Aaron Rodgers for 268 yards passing and three scores. I love Burrow’s $5,900 price tag in this matchup. Apparently, I am the only one, because Burrow is currently only projected for a 3% rostership this week. I will be stacking Burrow with both of his top wide receivers, C.J. Uzomah is also in play after exploding for 91 yards and two scores in Week 8.

Value – Quarterback

Tim Boyle, Detroit Lions – $4,000

I personally wasn’t aware that quarterbacks could be priced as low as $4,000. You learn something new every day. One thing that I learned a while back is that the Atlanta Falcons are not good at defense. Particularly speaking, the Falcons rank 31st against quarterbacks, giving up 20 points per game to single callers. Boyle isn’t going to score 30 points, but he could score 20 and at only 4K, he’s worth a roll of the dice. The salary relief should open up your build and enable you to surround Boyle with higher-priced studs. Don’t be afraid to play Boyle in larger GPP contests.

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High Priced – Running Back

Cordarrelle Patteron, Atlanta Falcons – $6,700

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 19: Cordarrelle Patterson #84 of the Atlanta Falcons runs the ball in the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

Cordarrelle Patterson is the man. This season he has been the Atlanta Falcons offense, averaging over 17 DraftKings points per game. He’s scored double-digit points in 10 of 13 appearances. This week Patterson faces a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 29th against running backs, having given up over 2,00 total yards and 22 touchdowns. Patterson should be unleashed in this matchup, free to score willy nilly all over the Lions. He’s one of my favorite running back plays in high-stakes GPP contests.

Mid-Range – Running Back

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,900

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 19: James Robinson #25 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs the ball as Garret Wallow #32 of the Houston Texans falls while looking to make a tackle during the third quarter at TIAA Bank Field on December 19, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)

James Robinson is back!! Last week he saw 24 opportunities, rushing for 75 yards and a score, picking up 17.8 DraftKings points along the way. This week Robinson faces the New York Jets defense that ranks 32nd to running backs this season. Their futility is remarkable. They have surrendered over 2,500 rushing and passing yards combined and 25 total touchdowns. Robinson is currently projected around 10% rostership, making him a great play in all GPP formats this week.

Value – Running Back

Justin Jackson, LA Chargers – $4,200

Austin Ekeler is currently on the NFL COVID-19 list, and it looks like he will ultimately miss Week 16 as a result. Last week, Justin Jackson carried the ball 13 times for 86 yards, which averaged out to 6.6 yards per carry. Jackson is expected to see the majority of touches in the Chargers backfield. It’s anyone’s guess how goal-line work will be split, but Jackson should be in the mix. Jackson’s role is less defined makes him a value upside-side play at only $4,200. His 11% projected rostership is a bit high, so make sure that the rest of your lineup isn’t too chalky.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Cooper Kupp, LA Rams – $9,100

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 21: Ugo Amadi #28 of the Seattle Seahawks tackles Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams on a pass play during the second quarter of a game at SoFi Stadium on December 21, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Cooper Kupp leads all NFL wide receivers in targets (164), receptions (122), receiving yards (1,625), and touchdowns (14). Kupp has scored over 30 DraftKings points in six games this year. He’s the best wide receiver play each and every week. Don’t overthink this one. Kupp is a Gronk smash into your lineup this week.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders – $6,800

“Third and Renfrow” might be the best wide receiver nickname in the NFL. Hunter Renfrow has lived up to the billing, turning his 38 targets over the last four weeks into 21.4 DraftKings points per game. Renfrow has over 100 yards receiving and at least nine targets in three of the last four weeks. Darren Waller is expected to miss Week 16, paving the way for Renfrow to see double-digit targets in a home underdog role against the Denver Broncos. Renfrow is live in mid-sized single-entry GPP tournaments.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $4,900

PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 14: Antonio Brown #81 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates with Ronald Jones II #27 after scoring a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 14, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

I’m shocked that Antonio Brown is currently only projected for 15% DraftKings rostership for Week 16. With Chris Godwin shelved and Mike Evans looking like he will miss the matchup with the Carolina Panthers, Antonio “Fake COVID-19 Card” Brown looks to be the beneficiary. According to all practice reports, Brown has looked great this week after returning from an ankle injury. I’m expecting Brown to see 8-10 targets this week and serve as Tom Brady’s security blanket. I’m comfortable rolling Brown out in all contest formats. His $4,900 price tag makes him one of the most versatile plays on the Week 16 slate.

High Priced – Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $7,000

BALTIMORE, MD – DECEMBER 19: Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) makes a leaping one-handed catch over the middle but can bring it down for a catch during the Green Bay Packers versus Baltimore Ravens NFL game at M&T Bank Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Mark Andrews is the TE1 this year in DraftKings scoring, averaging 18.2 points per game. Andrews leads all NFL tight ends with 122 targets, 85 receptions, and eight touchdowns. He’s averaging 10.6 targets per game over his last five games and is the Ravens’ number one receiving threat whether Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley is under center. His 11% rostership is reasonable given his 30 plus point upside this week. Andrews is worth running out naked or pairing with Huntley if he gets the start in place of Lamar.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,200

TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 12: Rob Gronkowski #87 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers attempts to catch a ball thrown by Tom Brady #12 during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Raymond James Stadium on December 12, 2021, in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady have combined for 90 passing touchdowns in their careers. Brady is without Chris Godwin and will most likely be without Mike Evan as well. This week Gronk is priced up $200, despite only scoring 4.9 points last week. Currently, he’s the highest rostered tight end on the DraftKings main slate, picking up 14% projected rostership. It makes sense given the Buccaneers’ wide receiver injuries. I am not really worried about the chalk on Gronk, he’s the best tight end option that isn’t named Mark Andrews.

Value – Tight End

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears– $3,300

Cole Kmet has 32 targets, 20 receptions, and close to 200 yards receiving in his last four games. Eight targets for $3,300 is practically stealing. The Seattle Seahawks rank 27th against the tight end, having given up 801 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. Kmet hasn’t found the end-zone yet this year, but I’m banking on him to slump bust it big and score over 14 DraftKings points.

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Featured

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Deck the Halls With Bows and Folly

It’s Christmas Eve. A palpable chill lingers in the wintry air, but there is smoke emanating from my debit card. When I was a kid, my mom would pull out all the stops to ensure that my sister and I would have cherished memories. Ever the festive one, Ma would allow us to open one gift on Christmas Eve. She would let us pick whichever one we wanted, even though she didn’t set out the non-pajama gifts until after we had crashed from our sugar cookie and cocoa high.

I married into a family that has its own traditions. My mother-in-law has been compiling gifts since December 26th last year. My wife and daughter didn’t fall far from that pre-lit tree, each barely able to contain their excitement and anticipation until all gifts are opened tonight on Christmas Eve. My wife and I didn’t splurge on gifts this year, instead opting for ones that we could share and remember. Our little girl will be nine years old next week and is showing an interest in singing. We got her a year of professional vocal lessons. My mom got her a record player with a couple vinyl records that she could put on the desk in her bedroom and belt out the same Imagine Dragons song on loop. I’m not one to get too fired up about much more than the food on Christmas, but I cannot wait to see her reaction.

Christmas Eve is such a special day that it also means that we spend Christmas Day in a vegetative state. We turn off our phones, play The Christmas Story on TV, and nap in between putting batteries in new toys and trying to figure out how to switch our gas fireplace back on. This year we have NFL football to watch on Christmas Day, which means I technically have some work to do on the holiday. Don’t worry, I won’t toil too much over picking apart the action. I’ll want to save my energy for Sunday.

If you played along last week, you would have had James Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Deebo Samuel, and Mark Freaking Andrews in your cash lineups. We were on cloud nine when many others were blubbering about the Cry-mageddon 2.0 that was Week 15. DFS is the answer to the season-long issue of last minute inactives from injuries or COVID protocol. Winning at DFS can make up for a truly dreadful redraft or dynasty season with swirling uncertainty and horrific timing to stars missing games.

Week 16 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

Gold-Plated

JUSTIN HERBERT: @ HOUSTON ($7,200)

The second-year pro out of Oregon is still firmly in my MVP conversation. The Chargers need to take care of business to stay in the running for the AFC West division title and the trappings that come with home field advantage and potential first round bye. It’s unlikely that Austin Ekeler will be activated off the COVID list for this one, giving Herbert a green light to air it out against one of the league’s worst defenses.

Rocking the Suburbs

MATTHEW STAFFORD: @ MINNESOTA ($6,700)

I would call the Vikings a pass funnel, but they’re not good at stopping the run either. Minnesota has nobody with a prayer of covering the likes of Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee. How will they do with those guys and also the league’s most productive receiver this season, Cooper Kupp? They won’t do well. Stafford will easily crack 300 passing yards, hopefully with a handful of touchdowns in tandem.

JALEN HURTS: VS NY GIANTS ($6,400)***

I’ll give credit to Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen. They have put Hurts in a great position to maximize his unique set of skills. We saw that on full display against Washington last week. The Eagles have become a lethal running team. They have another tantalizing matchup this week against the abominable Giants. Am I the only one who sees a lot of Josh Allen in Jalen Hurts? This is an amazing value for an elite fantasy player.

Under the Table

JOE BURROW: VS BALTIMORE ($5,900)

I’m not going dumpster diving this week at quarterback. I just found out that my only value player, Justin Fields, is getting benched for Nick Foles this week (thanks, Matt Nagy). The Ravens tattered secondary had no solution for the Bengals earlier in the season. Baltimore is a true pass funnel defense, so I’ll be playing a lot of Burrow & Co this week in all formats.

Running Backs

Gold-Plated

ALEXANDER MATTISON: VS LA RAMS ($6,800)

The way to beat the Rams is by bludgeoning them with the run game. With Dalvin Cook on the shelf yet again, Mattison has risen from the bench to inherit a huge workload. I’d play more of him if I thought his ceiling wasn’t somewhat capped by potential game script.

CORDARRELLE PATTERSON: VS DETROIT ($6,700)***

It finally happened. Sexy Flexy finally turned back into a pumpkin last week, thanks to absurd usage by idiot savant, Arthur Smith. The Falcons’ fake sharp of a coach has already put an airtight lid on the most exciting receiving prospect of the 21st century. I pray he doesn’t do the same to 2021’s fantasy darling, Patterson against the putrid Lions’ defense. I’ll be playing him everywhere, pacing nervously and chugging boozy eggnog.

Rocking the Suburbs

JAMES ROBINSON: @NY JETS ($5,900)

Robinson was good last week, not great. He really only lacked the one big play that vaults him from solid to slate breaker. I think he has a great chance to bust a few big’uns against the god damn Jets this Sunday. We at least have the assurance that Darrell Bevell enjoys feeding his best player, unlike that buffoon that used to pretend to coach the Jags.

DAVID MONTGOMERY*: @ SEATTLE ($5,700)

The Nick Foles news has sent the DFS community into a tizzy. The projected roster percentage attached to Monty is already tumbling. I will be getting even heavier on him and gingerbread cookies. The volume will be immense and the Seahawks are horrible at defending running backs.

Under the Table

JUSTIN JACKSON: @ HOUSTON ($4,200)

Austin Ekeler said it himself yesterday: pick up Justin Jackson because he still doesn’t feel well and will likely remain on the COVID list Sunday. Jackson is having the healthiest season of his career, which isn’t saying much. He is still very talented and leaps and bounds better than Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree. If I’m down here, this is the only running back I remotely trust.

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 28: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams avoids a tackle by Henry Black #41 of the Green Bay Packers during the second halfat Lambeau Field on November 28, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Wide Receivers

Gold-Plated

COOPER KUPP: @ MINNESOTA ($9,100)***

Everyone now knows that Kupp is on pace to break Megatron’s single season receiving yards record, albeit in one more game. The pride of Yakima is also within reach of Michael Thomas’ record for receptions in a season. Cooper Kupp is also facing the absolute worst pass coverage unit in the NFL this week. For cash games, eat the chalk with a grin.

KEENAN ALLEN: @ HOUSTON ($7,700)

The player with the most to gain from the absence of Austin Ekeler will be Allen. Ekeler is the Chargers’ catalyst in the short passing game. I foresee Allen getting peppered with short area targets from the slot in this game. This will add up the PPR points in bunches and easily return value in cash games.

Rocking the Suburbs

HUNTER RENFROW: VS DENVER ($6,800)

Much like with Patterson, Renfrow was a letdown for the first time in recent memory. He was on such a torrid pace, but now we will see who is loyal to him as a target-hogging PPR machine. Assuming he won’t be as popular this week, I’ll have Third & Renfrow sprinkled across my builds in all formats.

ANTONIO BROWN: @ CAROLINA ($4,900)

Is he bat shit crazy? Yes. Did he mislead his team and the NFL with a fake vaccination card? Yes. Does he enjoy paying his personal chef? No. Is he recovering from a bad ankle injury? Yes. Is he appropriately priced on DraftKings? No! We have to be mindful of the chalk here, but the Bucs are without Godwin and Evans against Carolina, leaving AB as the top option for Tom Brady in Week 16.

Under the Table

BYRON PRINGLE: VS PITTSBURGH ($3,300)

I will still be all over this matchup, even if Hill and Kelce are activated on Sunday. Pringle has been the more reliable of the “WR3 Carousel” in KC, over Hardman and Robinson. The Steelers’ secondary is getting barbecued down the field this season. Pringle is showing up as one of the best overall values on this entire slate.

ISAIAH MCKENZIE: @ NEW ENGLAND ($3,000)

My 2020 Week 17 darling, McKenzie is back on the radar this week. Cole Beasley and Gabe Davis are both unvaccinated and tested positive for COVID this week. McKenzie is a dynamic playmaker in the same ilk as Rondale Moore. I would be very disappointed if I didn’t mention McKenzie this week, before he puts up solid numbers against the extremely overrated Patriots defense.

Dec 9, 2019; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (88) makes a first down reception past New York Giants free safety Antoine Bethea (41) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Tight Ends

Gold-Plated

MARK ANDREWS: @ CINCINNATI ($7,000)

Mark Freaking Andrews has been a stud this year. Whether from Lamar Jackson or former Utah Ute, Tyler Huntley, Andrews is the most reliable receiver on the team. He makes a great runback in GPPs off the Bengals stack I’ll be deploying. In cash games, you might be hard-pressed to spend up to get him. You still won’t regret it.

ROB GRONKOWSKI: @ CAROLINA ($6,200)

The whole world is looking to Antonio Brown to be the benefactor in the Bucs’ passing attack, but they might be erroneously sleeping on the greatest tight end of all time. We shall see. I like Gronk as a safe play with tons of touchdown upside, now that Mike Evans has been ruled out.

Rocking the Suburbs

DAWSON KNOX: @ NEW ENGLAND ($5,300)

Knox hasn’t really excited me in DFS too often this season, but this week is different. I brazenly predicted a 35-17 score for this game in the Bills favor, so without Beasley and Davis, Josh Allen will need to count on someone besides Stefon Diggs to expose the fraudulent Patriots on Sunday. Knox is perfectly priced for his floor, with plenty of room to smash if he finds the end zone.

DALLAS GOEDERT: VS NY GIANTS ($5,100)***

I highly doubt there will be a more coveted DFS tight end on the slate than Goedert. He got the Tuesday night blind spot price here and also faces my favorite punchline team, the Giants on Sunday. Hurts will continue to feed the South Dakota State Jackrabbit plenty of healthy target volume. Goedert is my preferred tight end to play in cash games this week.

Under the Table

COLE KMET: @ SEATTLE ($3,300)

Seattle is on the verge of imploding as a franchise, which is eerily similar to Chicago’s plight under incumbent moron, Matt Nagy. Nagy announced earlier today that Nick Foles will start at quarterback on Sunday, puzzling everyone in the NFL community. Foles hasn’t targeted an outside receiver since ‘Nam, so I’ll take a stab at the talented young tight end to get a bunch of garbage, low aDOT dump-offs. In GPP, I’ll predict chaos and roster the corpse of Jimmy Graham in a few spots.

Featured

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

Abominable Snowman

What a terrible performance! Except for Alvin Kamara and Joshua Palmer, I saw six snowflakes on my side of the board. That is by far the most I’ve ever had in a head to head clash with Scott. I literally gift wrapped his second-consecutive win last week, so now I don’t need to get him anything for Christmas. He can build all the fires with composite logs from Costco that he wants, the flames will be back in my column for Week 15.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Davis Mills – Houston Texans – $5,400

The rookie out of Stanford has played better in three of his NFL games than he ever did in the Pac-12. Last week, Mills passed for over 300 yards and put up his third 20-point performance of the fantasy season. He gets the lowly Jags this week, who took the most vile dump in the history of dumps (and Florida). I like Mills to air it out and get me some serious points-per-dollar.

RB – Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins – $5,600

You guessed it! It’s an odd-numbered week and Myles Gaskin is active against the god damn Jets. No, Gaskin isn’t magically a better player this week than he was before, but the Jets are so bad at defending running backs that if you put Rose in the end zone with a beer, Scott could rumble to 20 points on DK against them.

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400

J-Rob is finally free of Urban Meyer’s venomous, barbed tentacles. Interim coach Bevell will undoubtedly establish the physical running game with Robinson, especially without the corpse of Carlos Hyde shuffling about. Houston is just as terrible as Jacksonville, but this game is ripe for fantasy purposes.

WR – Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers – $8,900

Adams is a target vacuum. Aaron Rodgers isn’t a dummy when it comes to finding open receivers or throwing them open. Since there’s nobody on the Ravens that can dream of covering Davante one on one, they will zone out and die by a million PPR cuts. Adams is a must start player at any price.

WR – Nico Collins – Houston Texans – $3,500

It’s a little bit sad that I’m trying to prevent Scott from a three-peat with a Texans skinny stack, but here we are. The rookie Wolverine inexplicably stayed at a very nice salary this week after a 10/5/69 (nice) performance against Seattle last week. He will be among the most likely Texans to score a touchdown on Sunday, which would be a nice continuance of my spend-down receiver hot streak.

WR – Albert Wilson – Miami Dolphins – $3,400

Tua still seems very content with his historically-low aDOT/high completion percentage approach. Without Jalen Waddle, the slot role will go to Wilson, who has shown flashes of brilliant playmaking ability since returning from injury. I’ll bet that Scott has Gesicki here, but I’ll leverage that with Wilson and save a couple thousand to squeeze more studs into my build.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 28: Mark Andrews #89 of the Baltimore Ravens reacts to a play during a game against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

TE – Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – $6,400

Until Travis Kelce lit up Los Angeles in primetime, it was actually Mark Andrews who held the TE1 crown. Green Bay is pretty good on defense this season, but a hobbled Lamar Jackson might be even more dangerous as a passer. Andrews is priced perfectly for his immense upside as the most relied upon option in the Ravens attack.

FLEX – Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – $8,200

Imagine if other dynamic playmakers were given a similar set of plays as Deebo. He has been absolutely outstanding as a receiver and running back this season, scoring touchdowns on what seems like every other time he touches the football. Atlanta is what the kids call “down bad” on defense. I shudder to imagine what Shanny has dialed up for his former team involving his best playmaker.

DST – San Francisco 49ers – $3,100

The Falcons are also what the kids call “trash” on offense. Matt Ryan has yet to find time behind this abysmal offensive line to put up very many decent games. The Niners have a fellow named Nick Bosa that is unblockable for most linemen anyway. This is a pseudo RB-DST stack with Deebo that sounds pretty fun.

Don’t Call It A Comeback, Part 2

Last week I got lucky and Tyler Lockett exploded to help me win my second straight over the illustrious Cash King himself, Bo McBrayer. Bo currently leads our Head-to-Head contest, 8 – 6, so you won’t hear any bragging out of me until I am at least .500. With that being said, I do have the chance for my first three-game winning streak against….oh looks like I just jinxed it….

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,500

LANDOVER, MARYLAND – DECEMBER 12: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys stiff arms Will Bradley-King #56 of the Washington Football Team during the fourth quarter at FedExField on December 12, 2021, in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Dak Prescott let down DraftKings players in Week 14, scoring a paltry11.9 points. That was last week. This week he faces a Giants defense that he absolutely lit up in Week 5, passing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Dak’s floor this week is 20 points and his ceiling is 30. It’s going to feel extra special beating Bo with his own precious Dallas Cowboys quarterback.

RB – Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins– $5,600

Miami Dolphins running back Myles Gaskin runs for yards against the New York Giants during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021, in Miami Gardens. (John McCall/Sun Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Myles Gaskin has cleared the NFL COVID-19 protocols and will be active this week for the Dolphins, making him one of the best value plays at running back on the slate. The New York Jets are dead last against running backs, having given up over 2,300 total yards and 23 touchdowns on the season. On average, they give up 35 points per game to running backs. Myles Gaskin should be in every lineup you build this week.

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400

James Robinson is FREE!!! Well, not completely. He’s actually $5,400 on DraftKings, but he is free from half-wit Urban Meyer. According to interim head coach Darrell Bevell, Robinson will see an increased workload this week with Carlos Hyde OUT with a concussion. It’s tremendous news for DFS players who are looking to finally cash in on Robinson. His matchup against the Texans is a juicy one as well. They currently rank 28th in the NFL against opposing running backs, giving up 26 points per game. Robinson is my second favorite running back play this week behind Gaskin.

WR – Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers – $8,900

GREEN BAY, WI – DECEMBER 12: Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) leaps into the waiting arms of Green Bay Packers center Lucas Patrick (62) during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field on December 12, 2021, in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Davante Adams has been averaging 30.7 DraftKings points per game over his last three games. The man is on fire! This week he faces Ravens secondary that hasn’t been good all season. According to PFF, Adams has the best cornerback matchup this week. Ravens cornerback Cliff Westry has a PFF grade of 58.7. The Ravens’ other starting cornerback, Anthony Averett has a PFF grade of 55.8. No matter who tries to cover Adams, he will be open all day long. He’s the best wide receiver play on the board for me this week.

WR –  Brandin Cooks – Houston Texans – $5,800

Brandin Cooks is the 11th most targeted wide receiver in the NFL through 14 weeks with 109. All the other active receivers on the team have a total of 81. Cooks has been feast or famine lately, scoring 21.1 last week after only registering 8.4 points in Week 13. The last time Cooks faced off against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 he caught five of seven targets for 132 yards. I am expecting more of the same from Cooks this week. If he can find the end zone, he has the potential to score 25 points.

WR – A.J. Green – Arizona Cardinals – $4,900

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 13: AJ Green #18 of the Arizona Cardinals makes a leaping catch against the Los Angeles Rams at State Farm Stadium on December 13, 2021, in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

DeAndre Hopkins is OUT this week. Both A.J. Green and Christian Kirk stand to benefit, but Green is more likely to run Hopkins’ WR1 route tree than Kirk. At $4,900, he’s a perfect Cash play with GPP upside. His opponent, the Detroit Lions, rank 27 in the NFL, giving up 27.2 points per game. The Arizona Cardinals are -13 road favorites in this matchup and should be able to move the ball down the field at will, creating potential red zone opportunities for Green and company. I’m projecting Green for 16 DraftKings points this week.

TE – Pat Freiermuth – Pittsburgh – $4,500

Pat Freiermuth has six touchdowns in his last seven games. He’s currently tied for 2nd amongst all tight ends with Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry who both have seven touchdowns. Freiermuth’s $4,500 price tag is a value for someone who has a great chance to find the end-zone again this week.

Flex – Michael Carter – New York Jets – $4,700

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 21: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Michael Carter #32 of the New York Jets in action against the Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium on November 21, 2021, in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Dolphins defeated the Jets 24-17. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Michael Carter currently has an IR designation next to his name in DraftKings, but he has been practicing all week and according to Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh, he will have a “significant role” in the offense this week. In the four games before his injury, Carter racked up 31 targets, 7.7 per game, and was averaging 19.4 points per game. I’m just looking for 15 points out of him to beat Bo.

DST – Dallas Cowboys – $3,600

Paying up for defense in Cash makes more sense than in GPP tournaments. This week I had to splurge. The New York Giants will be without Daniel Jones again this week. Their 17.8 points per game rank 27th in the NFL. If the Cowboys don’t score a defensive touchdown I would be disappointed.

Featured

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 16! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $8,100

TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 12: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills throws a pass during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Last week I told you to pay up for Josh Allen and he scored 42 points and broke the main slate, outscoring all other quarterbacks by nine points. This week Allen is only being rostered in a projected 10% of DraftKings lineups. His price tag is expensive, good. According to RunTheSims.com, Allen has the highest ceiling for Week 15 quarterbacks, at 37.38 points. The Carolina Panthers might look good on paper, but in reality, they won’t be able to stop Allen or Stefon Diggs. Diggs will be my primarily stacking option, but I will also be double stacking him with Dawson Knox and sprinkling in some Gabriel Davis. Allen is in play for all GPP tournament formats, but I love him for the higher-stakes contests.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – $6,500

Dak Prescott let a lot of DraftKings DFS players down last week after scoring only 11.9 points and breaking the slate, in a bad way. This week Dak and the Cowboys face off against NFC East doormats, the New York Giants. Incredibly Dak’s only picking up 8% rostership as off Friday night (when I am writing this). I’m expecting that number to be close to 12% come kickoff, but he’s still a great value at only $6,500. The last time Dak played the Giants he threw for three touchdowns, 303 passing yards, and scored 25.7 DraftKings points. I’ll be primarily skinny stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb this week in mid-sized GPP contests.

Value – Quarterback

Tua Tagovialoa, Miami Dolphins – $5,700

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 05: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins takes the field prior to the game against the New York Giants at Hard Rock Stadium on December 05, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

The New York Jets are the worst team in the NFL. They give up over 30 points per game to opposing offenses and haven’t been able to stop anyone all season. Tua Tagovialoa registered a quarterback rating of 108 the last time he faced the Jets in 2021, scoring 18 DraftKings points in the process. This week he will be without his number one wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who was placed on the NFL’s COVID-19 list earlier this week. But DeVante Parker is back and Mike Gesicki is also (Teddy KBG voice) hanging around. We’ve seen the likes of Mack Hollins and Isaiah Ford step up and make big plays in the passing game the last few weeks and Myles Gaskin is off the NFL COVID-19 list. I’m not worried about Waddle’s absence and will be above the field based on Tua’s 11% projected rostership.

High Priced – Running Back

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals – $7,200

Joe Mixon has scored the 5th most DraftKings points by a running back this season and is averaging 18.8 points per game. For comparison, Najee Harris is the most expensive running back on the Week 15 DraftKings main slate, priced at $7,800, and is only averaging 0.4 points more per game than Mixon. Before Mixon’s last two performances of 10.4 and 8.8 points, he had been averaging 28.9 points per game in his previous four starts. To top it all off, Mixon is currently only projected for 5% rostership. Fingers crossed people have short memories and fade him in a tougher matchup against the Denver Broncos.

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Mid-Range – Running Back

Cordarrelle Patteron, Atlanta Falcons – $6,900

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – DECEMBER 12: Cordarrelle Patterson #84 of the Atlanta Falcons is tackled by Bravvion Roy #93 of the Carolina Panthers on a run during the second quarter of the game at Bank of America Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Cordarrelle Patterson has scored 10 touchdowns this season. It is seven more than the next closest player on the Falcons. The whole team only has 5 more touchdowns than Patterson, which is absurd. The San Francisco 49ers are going to crush the Falcons and Matty Ice, but not before Patterson gets his this week and scores between 18-20 DraftKings points. At this point in the season, it is what he does. I’m rolling Patterson out as a run-back option for my George Kittle stacks. Giddy-up.

Value – Running Back

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – DECEMBER 12: James Robinson #25 of the Jacksonville Jaguars on the sidelines during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Jaguars 20-0. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

James Robinson is FREE!! Well, not really. He’s priced at $5,400 this week, but he is free from Urban Meyer, that franchise-ruining reprobate who hand single-handedly ruined 2020’s best fantasy football story when he thought career plodder Carlos Hyde was the answer. The word on the street is that Robinson should see his 2020 workload return this week against the Houston Texans, who rank 28th against running backs, giving up over 2,000 rushing/receiving yards and 17 total touchdowns. James Robinson has a really good chance of punching in a score this week. I’m playing him everywhere.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – $8,900

GREEN BAY, WI – DECEMBER 12: Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) leaps into the waiting arms of Green Bay Packers center Lucas Patrick (62) during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field on December 12, 2021 in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Davante Adams is the best wide receiver play on the DraftKings Week 15 main slate. I’m gutted that the LA Rams game got moved to Tuesday, meaning Cooper Kupp is no longer soaking up his rostership, leaving Adams exposed. Currently, he is projected for 15% rostership, the fifth-highest this week. My greatest fear has come true and apparently, people are onto him. Go figure. He’s only been averaging 11 targets per game the last five weeks, which might explain it. Despite his popularity, I’m rolling with Adams naked and in skinny stacks with Aaron Rodgers.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – $5,800

Brandin Cooks is the 11th most targeted wide receiver in the NFL through 14 weeks with 109. All the other active receivers on the team have a total of 81. Cooks has been feast or famine lately, scoring 21.1 last week after only registering 8.4 points in Week 13. The last time Cooks faced off against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 he caught five of seven targets for 132 yards. I am expecting more of the same from Cooks this week. If he can find the end zone, he has the potential to score 25 points.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills – $3,700

TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 12: Gabriel Davis #13 of the Buffalo Bills looks on during the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

After being replaced in the offseason by Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis has quietly scored over 11 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He also has two touchdowns in the last two games, along with 12 targets. This week Sanders is OUT meaning that Davis could see an increased role in the offense. RunTheSims.com projects Davis for just under a 20 point ceiling, exactly the type of cheap lotto ticket we are looking for at $3,700.

High Priced – Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $7,500

CINCINNATI, OH – DECEMBER 12: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers makes a catch during the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The 49ers defeated the Bengals 26-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

George Kittle is a tight end God! In the last two weeks, he has scored 79.8 points and is averaging 39.85 points per game. His 22 receptions, 331 yards receiving yards, and three touchdowns are the most by any player, period. This week Kittle and the San Francisco 49ers host his next victim, the Atlanta Falcons. Some of the sharpest minds in DFS said not to chase Kittle’s point last week. How did that turn out? I told you to play him, hope you are listening this week.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins – $5,000

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 21: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Mack Hollins #86 of the Miami Dolphins celebrates his touchdown against the New York Jets with teammate Mike Gesicki #88 at MetLife Stadium on November 21, 2021 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Dolphins defeated the Jets 24-17. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

The Miami Dolphins roll into New York this weekend at less than full strength due to COVID-19. Jaylen Waddle and his team-high 115 targets are OUT. I expect Myles Gaskin to soak up a few of those targets, but Mike Gesicki should be the primary beneficiary in his absence. Gesicki is second on the team with 89 targets on the season. His seven targets per game over the last 9 weeks means that he should see plenty of volume in this matchup. The Jets give up 15 points per game to the tight end position per week, including 828 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. Gesicki is going to feast this week.

Value – Tight End

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers – $4,500

Pat Freiermuth has six touchdowns in his last seven games. He’s currently tied for 2nd amongst all tight ends with Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry who both have seven touchdowns. Freiermuth’s 5% projected rostership is music to my ears. I will be over the field this week for sure.

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Featured

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

I Find Tinsel Distracting

To have the entire Seinfeld collection at my fingertips is a godsend. Love it or hate it, there are certain episodes that absolutely define comedy. Frank Costanza, portrayed by the late Jerry Stiller, probably has the most laughs-per-appearance in the series. “I’ve got a lot of problems with you people, and now you’re gonna hear about it!” Frank bellowed at the Festivus dinner table during the “airing of grievances.”

Festivus traditions from Seinfeld have trickled into our modern society, long after the airing of the final episode. There hasn’t been a holiday season in my family full of Seinfeld junkies without multiple references to the aluminum pole, the feats of strength, or even my dad joking about getting into a fight when he was attempting to purchase a doll for his son (me). That particular episode is toward the top of the list of things that make me wheeze with uncontrollable laughter.

We pretty much know what every NFL team, and player, is at this point of the season. Our shortness of breath hasn’t been from humor this year, but rather a COVID/injury exasperation. I propose that we spend more time cuddled up on the couch with the family this time of year, rather than grinding the tape and data to gain an edge for two Saturday NFL games or a constricted Week 15 Sunday main slate. With over 100 players in health and safety protocol this week, we are faced with a daunting DFS wasteland of unparalleled proportions. I’ll have some lineups, for sure, but ’tis the season of better priorities. As the NFL season “rains blows upon us,” we must realize there has to be another way. Until Scott pins me, Festivus is NOT over. LET’S RUMBLE!

Week 15 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – OCTOBER 17: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams warms up before a game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on October 17, 2021 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

Quarterbacks

Gold Plated

KYLER MURRAY: @ DETROIT ($7,900)

This is an updated blurb, since Matthew Stafford and the Rams were moved to Monday and are no longer on the main slate. Kyler and the Cards are battered and bruised after a tough home loss to those Rams. I expect them to roll into the Motor City with a chip on their shoulder, knowing their playoff seeding (and home field advantage) rides on their play in the final four games. Murray looked healthy against LA, which means Detroit will be in a world of trouble trying to slow him down.

Rocking the Suburbs

JOE BURROW: @ DENVER ($6,100)***

The drive that drew the Bengals even with the 49ers and forced overtime was a masterpiece of quarterback play by Joe Burrow. The Broncos haven’t been slouches on defense this season, but are severely overmatched against a Bengals team trying to make a playoff push. Burrow has been a touchdown scoring machine and will roll right along in Week 15.

Under the Table

DAVIS MILLS: @ JACKSONVILLE ($5,400)

The Texans are rebuilding, but so are the Jags. Fresh off finally canning the worst coach in NFL history, Jacksonville will likely have some extra pep in their step. That doesn’t replace actual talent, meaning the pass-heavy Texans will air it out against a very poor secondary with the Stanford rookie Mills. Mills now has three 20-plus point performances this season, giving me confidence in his value this week.

Running Backs

Gold Plated

CORDARRELLE PATTERSON: @ SAN FRANCISCO ($6,900)

The two biggest studs at the running back position are playing on Saturday this week. Najee Harris would be a decent play here with his volume, but his salary is very high for his matchup with a tough Titans front seven. I’ll spend down a bit to get Sexy Flexy himself at $6.9k (nice). The 49ers have not been great on defense overall and will struggle to contain Patterson, who has been a model of high-value volume this season.

Rocking the Suburbs

MYLES GASKIN: VS NY JETS ($5,600)

Gaskin let us down in Week 13, his first such faceplant on an odd-numbered week. He rocked 26 touches in Week 11 against these Jets, putting up 18.6 fantasy points. I’ll wager that he will see a similar workload coming off the COVID list and bye week, with plenty of upside to exceed his previous point total against New York.

JAMES ROBINSON: VS HOUSTON ($5,400)***

Urban Meyer was the worst coach in the history of the NFL. Although it was his off-field transgressions that will pay him royally to go away, his usage of fantasy darling J-Rob had us gnashing our teeth and calling for Urban’s head very early in the season. Interim head coach, Darrell Bevell has already stated that Robinson is their starting running back and will be used as such this week. This will be a “remember me?” game for the talented back.

Under the Table

ROYCE FREEMAN: @ JACKSONVILLE ($4,500)

Rolls Royce has gone from one of my favorite all-time Oregon Ducks players to an utter disappointment as a professional. He can right the ship with a shot at some serious volume this week against the reeling Jaguars. The real question here is whether Freeman will see the coveted goal line work in this depleted backfield.

Wide Receivers

Gold Plated

DAVANTE ADAMS: @ BALTIMORE ($8,900)

It would have been a tough coin flip to decide between Adams and Cooper Kupp, but with the Rams game postponed until Monday, we can lock in the Fresno State alum at the top of the price scale. Baltimore’s secondary has struggled all season, where Kupp faces a Seattle team that is 10th best against opposing wide receivers. Aaron Rodgers is the height of entertainment with the “aggravation” news in his toe saga. He will still flood the league’s best receiver with targets.

DEEBO SAMUEL: VS ATLANTA ($8,200)***

The best “wide receiver” play on the board is Deebo. He has received much more work as a running back lately, with the rash of injuries on the 49ers. If Elijah Mitchell plays, Samuel will likely see more receiving work again. If Mitchell is out, Deebo is primed to be deployed like Cordarrelle Patterson in Atlanta. This has yielded spectacular results in the scoring department, since the South Carolina alum seems to find the end zone on every other rushing attempt.

Rocking the Suburbs

BRANDIN COOKS: @ JACKSONVILLE ($5,800)

Davis Mills is good for Cooks. He was incredibly productive with the rookie back under center last week, with a 11/8/101 line. Houston faces another horrible defense this week in the Jags, making Cooks’ $100 price increase a tantalizing value for cash games.

Under the Table

AJ GREEN: @ DETROIT ($4,900)

I am sad to report that one of my favorite players in the NFL, DeAndre Hopkins, is out for the rest of the regular season with a sprained knee. Not lost on me is how Green was utilized against the Rams last week, even with Hopkins on the field. His 10-target, 100-yard performance is nearly a shoo-in for a repeat against the Lions this week. The Cards run a ton of plays and are really jockeying for playoff seeding at this point. Green will be fantastic.

DEVANTE PARKER*: VS NY JETS ($4,300)

Another devastating blow to the fantasy community was Jalen Waddle hopping on the COVID list this week. Parker was very handy in his return to health last week, corralling all five of his targets for 62 yards. Tua Tagovailoa has been a picture of efficiency lately, so a bump in volume will almost certainly equate to a bump in fantasy points for the Louisville alum.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 28: Mark Andrews #89 of the Baltimore Ravens reacts to a play during a game against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Tight Ends

Gold Plated

GEORGE KITTLE: VS ATLANTA ($7,500)

This guy is on a ridiculous hot streak. In fact, Kittle is the first tight end in NFL history to reach 150 receiving yards and a touchdown in consecutive games. He is getting to quite the lofty salary now, but the Falcons are so unequivocally terrible that it shouldn’t matter. If you can fit Kittle in your roster, do it.

MARK ANDREWS: VS GREEN BAY ($6,400)***

Until Travis Kelce went thermonuclear on Thursday night, the TE1 on the season was Mark Andrews. I expect Lamar Jackson to play on Sunday, but without as much moving around. The Ravens have looked more dangerous as an offense when airing it out this season. Andrews, along with Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman, should still cause a coverage dilemma for the Packers. I have him projected for virtually the same stat line as Kittle, but for $1,100 less.

Rocking the Suburbs

MIKE GESICKI: VS NY JETS ($5,000)

The uber-athletic tight end hasn’t been the apple of Tua’s eye this year, with the southpaw signal caller instead spreading it around with frustrating precision. Jalen Waddle missing this game vacates a lot of work for Gesicki, especially on third down and in the red zone. He will be force in the middle price range on Sunday.

Under the Table

JOSIAH DEGUARA: @ BALTIMORE ($2,700)

I just had to shout out my fellow NorCal native, who has already gained much more trust from another NorCal product, Aaron Rodgers. DeGuara, from Sacramento, has filled in very nicely for the injured Robert Tonyan. The Ravens have been abysmal against the tight end position, which means if my guy Josiah can get open, Rodgers will find him.

Featured

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

Something About a Blind Squirrel

Don’t let his gruff exterior fool you, Scott Simpson is incapable of doing harm. That is, unless you are in the DraftKings lobby, with banks of flickering fluorescent lights and creaky floorboards. In that world, he’s leaning into the bricks in a leather jacket, carving a Fuji apple with a switchblade knife. For some unknown reason, he’s wearing skull rings on every finger and keeps muttering something about ROI under his breath.

Like a wild animal backed into a corner, his pupils contract to pinpoints and he hisses and shrieks before mounting a furious counterattack. I had driven him to that, with a month of deprivation from the sweet, thick nectar of victory. Parched, he championed a trio of wide receivers who rode in on translucent steeds to the tune of 84.40 fantasy points. He coaxed an immortal goat from his patch of thistle to cap off a resounding 27-point triumph over my more-than-adequate band of hired guns.

I liked my lineup. It was quite strong, but Scott’s lineup was the highest score in the Clash so far this season. It was quite remarkable how vividly I picture the squirrel in Ice Age finally capturing the elusive acorn. Scott is the squirrel. Ice Age has multiple sequels. I will have my vengeance in an eruption of pyroclastic flow.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,700

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 11: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his touchdown reception against the New York Giants during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium on October 11, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The quarterback for America’s Team is my favorite to roster on DK this week. His letdown performance against the Saints last week drove his salary down by $400, making this value impossible to ignore. Washington isn’t built to beat this Cowboys team, especially coming off a 10-day break.

RB – Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $7,900

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 25: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints scores a fifth touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Mercedes-Benz Superdome on December 25, 2020 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

He’s baaaack. No, not Cam Newton. AK41 is back to take on the very worst defense in the NFL at defending the running back position. To roster a healthy Kamara under $8k is Valhalla. The Saints are in a must-win situation with a mere speed bump in the way. The god damn Jets are going to get steamrolled.

RB – Antonio Gibson – Washington Football Team – $6,000

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 05: Antonio Gibson #24 of the Washington Football Team scores on a touchdown reception against the Las Vegas Raiders during the fourth quarter of a game at Allegiant Stadium on December 05, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Washington Football Team defeated the Raiders 17-15. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)

It seems fitting that Gibson against the Cowboys led to my demise on Thanksgiving 2020. Washington has given the Memphis product all the work he can handle since their bye week. Dallas has good numbers against running backs on paper, but have truly been gashed when teams emphasize the inside zone running game.

WR – Michael Gallup – Dallas Cowboys – $5,500

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 02: Michael Gallup #13 of the Dallas Cowboys catches the ball for a touchdown as Bradley Roby #21 of the New Orleans Saints defends in the first quarter of the game at Caesars Superdome on December 02, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Gallup has the highest projected points-per-dollar value on this slate for me. He draws one of the friendliest matchups possible with the Washington secondary. All three Cowboys wideouts will feast on Sunday, with Gallup doing so at the lowest DK salary.

WR – Nick Westbrook-Ikhine – Tennessee Titans – $4,500

Houston and Jacksonville have had similar struggles in coverage this season. Two weeks ago, NWI was running wide open all game and put up over 20 fantasy points. As stunning as it is to imagine a team “coached” by Urban Meyer struggling with communication, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Westbrook-Ikhine light this defense up at a bargain.

WR – Joshua Palmer – LA Chargers – $3,000

Speaking of bargains, Palmer is a less-polished version of Mike Williams. Williams is unlikely to be activated from the COVID reserve list for Sunday’s game, vaulting the rookie from Tennessee into a prominent role. Keenan Allen is already ruled out. Palmer is a touchdown waiting to happen against the dreadful New York Giants.

TE – Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,400

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – AUGUST 20: Tight end Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs on the sidelines during the first half of the NFL preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on August 20, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Chiefs defeated the Cardinals 17-10. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

The Chiefs are back on the main slate this week, bringing the ultimate stack back into play. I won’t have very many lineups that won’t have Kelce as a pillar. The Raiders stink. Don’t think for one second that I forgot about Week 10, when Kelce went for 10/8/119 in Vegas, for his best performance since Week 3.

FLEX – Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers – $5,900

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 31: Chuba Hubbard #30 of the Carolina Panthers runs with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

I think Chuba stinks. He’s simply not that good at football. What does not stink is his gorgeous matchup with the Falcons, nor his sub-$6k salary. In Atlanta in Week 8, the Oklahoma State rookie got a hefty 24 carries and scored a touchdown. Matt Rhule wants to pound the rock, now that Joe Brady was sacked. A little more receiving volume and a tick up in the yards per carry would be nice step toward hating Chuba a bit less.

DST – Carolina Panthers – $2,800

Running backs are fun to stack with their correlating DST, especially when they face really bad teams. Atlanta has allowed the most points to opposing defenses in fantasy, which means they don’t score many points and surrender a ton of sacks and turnovers. The Panthers DST scored 11 DK points in Week 8 in Atlanta with three sacks and two interceptions. That was at a higher salary, to boot.

Don’t Call it A Comeback

Literally don’t call my resounding victory over Bo in the ‘Clash of the Beards and Bellies’ last week “a comeback.” I’m officially 5 – 8 against Bo through 13 weeks of NFL action. It’s pathetic. No celebration from me this week. I’ll start celebrating when I’m over .500. Right, Jeff Fischer?

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,700

The smart money is on Dak this weekend at only $6,700. No big shocker that Bo is all over this play as well. The Cowboys’ 26 implied point total means that points should be plentiful come Sunday. With Amari Cooper healthy and an ailing Tony Pollard, look for Dak to get it done through the air, I’m projecting him for over 300 yards passing and three touchdowns, or around 23 DraftKings points.

RB – Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas Raiders – $6,200

LAS VEGAS, NV – DECEMBER 5: Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) beats the tackle by Washington Football Team outside linebacker Cole Holcomb (55) as he runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown in the fourth quarter during a game the Washington Football Team and the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on December 5, 2021. (Photo by John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

I’m really high on Josh Jacobs this week. Last week he saw nine targets and has seen 30 over the last six weeks. All it took for Jacobs to finally become a PPR back was for Gruden to be fired. Who knew? This week the Raiders should lean on Jacobs in the rushing and passing game, as Darren Waller will miss another game with knee and back injuries. Look for Jacobs to see 20 plus touches in this matchup against a Chiefs’ defense that 25 points per game to running backs.

RB – Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos – $5,900

KANSAS CITY, MO – DECEMBER 05: Willie Gay Jr. #50 of the Kansas City Chiefs reaches to tackle Javonte Williams #33 of the Denver Broncos during the second quarter at Arrowhead Stadium on December 5, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Javonte Williams is a stud. Last week he finally showed off and showed out, scoring over 30 DraftKings points in Melvin Gordon’s absence. This week Gordon should be back this week, but Williams is the healthy and dynamic back you want to start against the hapless Lions. Sure they got their first win last week, but this week they are down two starting running backs, and T.J. Hockenson is doubtful. The Lions are terrible against the run, giving up over 1,700 total yards and 18 touchdowns to backs in 12 games. Don’t overthink this one, roll with Williams.

WR – CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys – $7,200

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 22: CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys pulls in a touchdown pass against Jeff Gladney #20 of the Minnesota Vikings during their game at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 22, 2020 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)

CeeDee Lamb ranks 11th for DraftKings wide receivers, averaging 17.4 points per game this season. Over his last six games though, Lamb has averaged 19.3 and over a 25% target share. The Cowboys have lost the last two games vs. the Washington Football Team, giving up 66 points in those two games. The Cowboys are going to need their top-ranked NFL offense to show up if they are going to win this matchup and the NFC East. I expect Dak to target Lamb 7-9 times in this high-scoring game, providing him with plenty of opportunities to bring back value. I’m actually shocked that Bo didn’t roster him.

WR –  Tyler Lockett – Seattle Seahawks – $6,700

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 9: Wide receiver Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates after scoring a fourth quarter touchdown under coverage by defensive back Justin Simmons #31 of the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on September 9, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Seattle’s rushing attack has been decimated by injuries this season, losing Chris Carson for the season. Bad news for the Seahawks, but good news for Tyler Lockett, who has been averaging eight targets per game the last five weeks. His 88.8 receiving yards per game over that stretch lead the team. Lockett has a safe 10 point floor, but a tremendous ceiling against PFF’s 82nd ranked cornerback Terrance Mitchell. With a career low 58.6 grade this year, Mitchell is exploitable.

WR – Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,600

Mike Evans is averaging over seven targets per game over the last six weeks and at $6,600 was just too juicy to pass up. Sure, Chris Godwin has seen his target share increase during Antonio Brown’s absence, Evans quietly has six touchdowns in his last six games. I’m banking on Evans to score a solid ho-hum,18-20 points against the Bills. Nothing special, just keep me in the game.

TE – Ricky Seals-Jones – Washington Football Team – $3,600

Logan Thomas is OUT for the rest of the season. Perfect time for Ricky Seals-Jones to heal up and return to the lineup against Dallas. We’ve already seen Taylor Heinicke consistently target the tight end position in this offense. The Cowboys haven’t been impressive against tight ends, giving up 13.75 points per game this season. When he’s started, Seals-Jones is seeing a 17% target share. Wheels up people.

Flex – Jeff Wilson Jr – San Francisco 49ers – $4,400

SEATTLE, WA – DECEMBER 5: Jeff Wilson Jr. #22 of the San Francisco 49ers on the field before the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on December 5, 2021 in Seattle, Washington. The Seahawks defeated the 49ers 30-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

My good friend Dave Kluge recently pointed out that in six career starts, Jeff Wilson is averaging around 17 fantasy points per game. That’s good right? Hell, at $4,400, it’s great. The only question is whether or not Wilson will be a true lead back, garnering 60-70% of touches or if its more of a 50/50 split with JaMycal Hasty. I’m leaning towards the former in this matchup against the Bengals. Wilson could be in line for 20 touches against a Bengals teams that

DST – Cleveland Browns – $2,700

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have not looked right all season. Last time these two teams met the Browns picked Jackson off four times. This play will either socre big for me or come back to haunt me. Fingers crossed Lamar struggles in this matchup.

Featured

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Take Care Y’all’s Chicken

“Ya feel me?” I feel ya, Marshawn. I know in my heart of hearts that many who will read this know struggle. I come across folks from all walks of life in my day job. If I asked some of them to talk about their financial wellbeing, they would likely lament the bevy of obstacles that have presented themselves in the last two years. Some, including me, would curse the darkness that has surfaced in the desperate faces around us. December isn’t as joyous as it was when we were younger. With tinsel and holly comes a mountain of pressure and daunting expectations. Most of us are not well.

Taking care of our mentals, as Beast Mode would colloquialize, is a staggering test in today’s climate. Financial struggles are incendiary to stress, anxiety, and depression. I know about struggle. I also have gone through periods of my life where the future was bleak and left me fearful that there was little reason to hope or expect my situation to improve. I also know about privilege, about blessings. A simple step back to assess the landscape makes it obvious that I am incredibly fortunate to have what I do.

I might not be lighting the world on fire with remarkable success, but there’s a glowing optimism that drives me forward. I have a beautiful family that understands and loves me for the person I am. I have a home with pets that cling to us like velcro. I have a stable career with healthcare benefits. I have hobbies and interests that stimulate me to take on new challenges on a whim. A person without these things isn’t lesser. I wear my privilege on the outside. I acknowledge where I didn’t need to climb as high of a mountain as someone else to get where I am. We are equals seeking equality of opportunity.

Take care y’all’s chicken. I watched that presser when Marshawn Lynch stared into the camera and actually spoke to his audience through the media. “Take care of your money…because that shit don’t last forever.”

DFS is one source of income I never banked on before. It used to be a hobby that would sporadically reward me for simultaneous sharpness and luck. Nowadays, luck comes a little more freely. “Luck is where hard work meets opportunity,” according to Vince Lombardi. DFS puts stress on that adage. I’d say that luck comes to the doorstep of those who leave the porch light on. Keep plugging away. If you practice an interest enough, you will get better at it. DFS cash games every NFL Sunday are a rollercoaster, but I, along with a few others, have adapted ourselves to be impervious to motion sickness.

Week 14 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 14: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his rushing touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Quarterbacks

Gold-Plated

PATRICK MAHOMES: VS LAS VEGAS ($8,000)

It wouldn’t have mattered if Mahomes was $10k in Week 10 against the Raiders: he was going to be the best play on the board, coming in at 39.2 points on DK. That was in Vegas and the Raiders have only further unraveled from that point. Arrowhead will be rocking, especially looking for the Chiefs to punish the Raiders for their victory lap around the stadium on the team bus last year. Don’t be afraid to spend up to get Mahomes any week, especially with a chance to sew up the AFC West against a very weak defense.

Rocking the Suburbs

DAK PRESCOTT: @ WASHINGTON ($6,700)***

The Saints didn’t make it easy on Dak last week. He dinked and dunked 40 passing attempts, only hitting 12.2 fantasy points. Washington has played better defensively of late but is still having trouble covering good receivers (of which Dallas has three). Injuries to Elliott and Pollard also add impetus to Dak putting the offense on his back to put this division away for good. I expect a very big fantasy day for this year’s Alex Smith Award winner.

Under the Table

TAYSOM HILL: @ NY JETS ($5,600)

My mind was boggled last Thursday night. The Mormon Missile was terrible. Dallas picked him off four times, two more interceptions were dropped, and a strip-sack was narrowly averted after the replay showed Hill’s arm was barely moving forward. He still managed to score 27.7 points. The Jets defense is among the worst in the NFL in every category. The return of Alvin Kamara also puts immense stress on the defensive front seven. There will be no reason Taysom Hill won’t produce for fantasy, even if you have to fade his chalk in GPP and watch the game through your fingers with a puke bucket nearby.

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – OCTOBER 31: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints stands on the field during a NFL game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Caesars Superdome on October 31, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Running Backs

Gold-Plated

ALVIN KAMARA: @ NY JETS ($7,900)***

The Jets are bad against every offensive position but are historically abysmal against opposing running backs. They are still an average of nearly 10 FPPG worse than the next-worst team, at 35 PPR points allowed per game. The key to this has been their utter inability to cover pass-catching running backs. Do you see where I’m going with this? Kamara is the best receiver at his position not named Christian McCaffrey. He will be as chalky as all hell, but there’s no reason to fade him whatsoever.

Rocking the Suburbs

ANTONIO GIBSON: VS DALLAS ($6,000)

I’m very nervous about the Cowboys this week. Their baboon of a coach, Mike McCarthy, gave Washington a bunch of bulletin board material by guaranteeing victory. The No-Namers are already led by one of the most inspirational figures in sports, Riverboat Ron Rivera. They also have been feeding their stud back Gibson a gluttonous mound of touches the last couple of weeks. Volume pays the bills and Gibby has already ripped the Cowboys apart a couple times in his young career.

Under the Table

D’ONTA FOREMAN: VS JACKSONVILLE ($5,100)

This is a hunch, but I think Mike Vrabel loves the way Foreman runs. He’s the kind of running back that thrives on a team run with the Belichick mentality. His 109 rushing yards in Week 12 will go a long way to ensure he keeps his pre-bye workload into this game against the pitiful Jags. I also put a high probability on Foreman scoring his first touchdown of the season on Sunday.

Wide Receivers

Gold-Plated

TYREEK HILL: VS LAS VEGAS ($8,500)

Yes, I was actually disappointed that Cheetah only scored 27 points against the Raiders in Week 10. He scored twice early on but finished the game with 83 receiving yards on 10 targets. It was good, but it could have been so much better. I have him for 140 yards on nine receptions and at least one touchdown this time around. It’s his stable target volume that keeps him on the Cash list any time he is on the Main Slate.

Rocking the Suburbs

MICHAEL GALLUP: @ WASHINGTON ($5,500)***

Washington’s defensive backs are very slow, have stiff hips, and have terrible ball skills. This equates to receivers getting huge chunk plays on vertical routes. Gallup isn’t merely a field stretcher. His speed, body control, and hand-eye coordination are all elite and will pose major issues for the No-Named defense. At only $5.5k, the supposed “third option” for Dak Prescott is my best value play on the slate.

Under the Table

JOSHUA PALMER*: VS NY GIANTS ($3,000)

The NFL is an 18-week war of attrition. The COVID pandemic has added even more uncertainty to weekly roster decisions. The Chargers will likely be without top receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this week, putting the Tennessee rookie, Palmer and second-year pro, Jalen Guyton in Justin Herbert’s crosshairs. Palmer is more inclined to score a touchdown this week as the bigger body. He is a raw version of Mike Williams, which I can see as endearing to his quarterback.

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 10: Buffalo Bills outside linebacker A.J. Klein (54) looks to tackle Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) in the third quarter of an NFL football game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs on Oct 10, 2021 at GEHA Filed at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Tight Ends

Gold-Plated

TRAVIS KELCE: VS LAS VEGAS ($7,400)***

Without a doubt, I was ecstatic to get Kelce back on the Main Slate this week. All of the primetime games and bye week left me yearning for a great spend-up lock in the tight end dystopian wasteland. I did hit big on George Kittle last week (he’s another good one this week) and now look to lock in the immense positional advantage of Kelce against a reeling Raiders team. Kelce is a cornerstone player in all of my builds.

Rocking the Suburbs

EVAN ENGRAM: @ LA CHARGERS ($3,500)

Crazy, right? Yes, I still call Engram “Old Stone Hands.” What I have also noticed is Engram remaining a healthy asset for the most pathetic team in the NFL (in my opinion). Casting away a garbage offensive coordinator has liberated the Mississippi tight end to actually run routes down the field. His target volume has been steady, which gives me less pause this week against a Chargers defense that quite literally forces their opponents to funnel plays to the middle of the field.

Under the Table

DONALD PARHAM JR: VS NY GIANTS ($2,800)

With the dearth of healthy receiving options for the Chargers, many will overlook Parham. He has been nothing more than a random red zone tall guy most of the season, but I am optimistic that they will use his unique size and skillset to attack the Giants. We’re digging deeper for a cash game than usual here, but sometimes you need that tall, dart throw tight end posting up in the end zone to put you over the pay line.

Featured

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 14! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $7,800

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 31: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after a touchdown run during the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images)

According to RunTheSims.com, Josh Allen has the third-highest for quarterbacks in Week 14. Allen and the Bills are facing the Buccaneers that rank 17th against wide receivers, giving up 35 points per game. The Bills pass the football 60% of the time, Allen averaging 37 attempts per game. The 53.5 point total suggests that Vegas has this matchup pegged for a shootout. The Bucs’ strength is stopping the run and the Bills’ weakness is rushing the football. I would not be surprised if Allen dropped back 50 times this week and picked up some rushing yardage as well.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – $6,700

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 14: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his rushing touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Dak Prescott priced at $6,700 is one of my favorite plays for all of Week 14. The Washington Football Team ranks 32nd against quarterbacks and 30th against wide receivers giving up 39 points per game. I expect this game to be wild, each team trading explosive scoring plays. I’m stacking Dak with his favorite weapon, CeeDee Lamb, and running it back with at least one member of the Washington Football Team, preferably stand-out wide receiver “Scary” Terry McLaurin. McLaurin roasted Trevon Diggs the last time the Cowboys visited Washington. This game is one of my favorite to stack.

Value – Quarterback

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints – $5,400

The New York Jets are terrible against the run, giving up over 1,500 yards on the season. Tayson Hill is primarily a rusher masquerading as a quarterback, which makes him a great play this week. Don’t overthink this one. Last week Hill scored 27 points, despite throwing four interceptions. I love Hill as a pay-down option for smaller single-entry tournaments.

High Priced – Running Back

Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers – $8,400

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 19: Austin Ekeler #30 of the Los Angeles Chargers runs with the ball during a 20-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys at SoFi Stadium on September 19, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Austin Ekeler is the second leading scoring running back on DraftKings with 260 points on the season. The Chargers will look to lean heavily on him this weak as they will be down top starting wide receiver Keenan Allen. Ekeler has a juicy matchup this week against a Giants defense that gives up 26 points per game to the running back position. Ekeler entered Week 14 as the leader in running back targets, averaging 5.9 per game. Ekeler is picking up 16% rostership, which makes him a leverage play over Alvin Kamara with is currently rostered in 33% of DraftKings main slate lineups.

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Mid-Range – Running Back

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders – $6,200

LAS VEGAS, NV – DECEMBER 5: Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) beats the tackle by Washington Football Team outside linebacker Cole Holcomb (55) as he runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown in the fourth quarter during a game the Washington Football Team and the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on December 5, 2021. (Photo by John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Remember when we all said, “If only Josh Jacobs saw targets” well now he’s seeing targets, nine last week and 30 in his last six games. The Chiefs have given up over 1,700 total yards to running backs on the season. The Raiders know that they can’t compete in a fast-paced game with Mahomes and will be looking to get the ball in Jacobs’ hands to slow the game down and control the clock. I am projecting him for 20 touches. He can be used as a run-back option if you game-stack him with Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Value – Running Back

Jeff Wilson, San Francisco 49ers – $4,400

Jeff Wilson practiced on Thursday and Friday, indicating that he should be ready to go this Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. Wilson hasn’t been spectacular when he’s been featured this season, his $4,400 price is hard to ignore. If he does score and rush for 80 yards, he could score 18 points and pay-off as a value in your flex. I’m comfortable playing Wilson in larger field GPP tournaments and

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – $7,200

CeeDee Lamb is averaging 17.4 DraftKings points per game, good for 11th best amongst wide receivers. His 8.7 targets per game over his last six games, which translated to 19.3 DarftKings points per game over that same span. OccupyFantasy.com is projecting Lamb for only 9% rostership, making him a viable option for smaller field stacks with Dak. I will be running Lamb primarily with Dak, and will be closer to 15-18% exposure.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Mike Williams, LA Chargers – $6,000

KANSAS CITY, MO – DECEMBER 13: Wide receiver Mike Williams #81 of the Los Angeles Chargers lunges for a touchdown past the tackle of defensive back Daniel Sorensen #49 of the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on December 13, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Mike Williams is currently on the NFL’s COVID-19 list, but the Chargers are expecting to get him back for this matchup with the New York Giants. The Chargers will be without All-Pro wide receiver Keenan Allen, who is not projected to be cleared from his positive COVID-19 test. William’s $6,000 price means that he will be popular, between 20-25% rostership this weekend. I’m not fading this chalk, Williams is facing a Giants’ secondary that gives up 36 points per game to wide receivers and surrendered 14 touchdowns and close to 2,000 total yards.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Laquon Treadwell, Jacksonville Jaguars – $3,400

Laquon Treadwell is DFS relevant, finally! He’s led the Jag’s in targets over the last three weeks and should see plenty of actions again this week against a Tennessee Titans secondary that gives up over 43 fantasy points to wide receivers on average. I know people will be chasing Josh Palmer at $3,000, but the Titans are a better match with more potential volume headed Treadwell’s way.

High Priced – Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $6,900

SEATTLE, WA – DECEMBER 5: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers makes a catch and takes it 48-yards for a touchdown during the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on December 5, 2021 in Seattle, Washington. The Seahawks defeated the 49ers 30-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

George Kittle is an animal and a ballerina, after tip-toeing down the sideline in spectacular fashion for his 48 yards touchdown last week. He scored 42 DraftKings points and is only priced up to $6,900 (noice). I’m buying all the Kittle this week against the Bengals. He’s expensive, which is has driven his rostership under 8%. He’s a great leverage play over folks who are paying up for Travis Kelce at $7,400.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – $5,000

Dawson Knox isn’t the best tight end play this week, but at $5,000 he’s the exact same price as Cole Beasley with 4x less rostership, making him tremendous leverage in all GPP tournaments. He does have 19 targets the last three weeks and a potential negative game script in his matchup with the Buccaneers going for him as well. I expect him to see 6-8 targets this week against and find the end-zone.

Value – Tight End

Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team – $3,600

Ricky Seals-Jones steps into a role he had a few weeks ago before getting injured. This week, he should step into 5-6 targets with potential red-zone opportunities. He’s a great run-back if you are stacking the Cowboys, and who isn’t this week?

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Featured

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

We’re Going Streaking

Bring your green hat, everyone’s doing it. Just like Frank the Tank in the timeless classic Old School, I’m streaking through the quad. I’ve been known to throw back some brewskis, but I typically go long periods of time before I hit the level of inebriation that induces public nudity. I may have plenty of cause to pop the cork on some Dom Perignon after I mashed Scott’s potatoes on Thanksgiving for my fourth-consecutive official victory (then again unofficially on the Sunday main slate and yet again on the Monday night showdown slate), but I’ll remain stoic and modest.

Scott is still a very talented DFS player. He is outpacing me in earnings this season, leaving me clutching at my gentlemanly victories like they are the last marbles that I have yet to lose. I wholeheartedly believe I will win yet again on Sunday in this Clash and take another non-cardio victory lap on the SportsMe app. I’m making like Matthew Berry with a love-hate lineup for Week 13, littered with juicy matchups.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins – $5,500

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 28: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins during their game against the Carolina Panthers at Hard Rock Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)

I went on record this offseason to say I think Tua is a much better real-life quarterback than he is for fantasy. I’m feeling very wrong for the last couple of weeks. He has been the picture of consistency and precision. He also gets a cupcake matchup with extra sprinkles this week at home against the pathetic Giants. Devante Parker is also slated to return. At this salary, he’s definitely good for fantasy.

RB – Alexander Mattison – Minnesota Vikings – $7,600

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 28: Alexander Mattison #25 of the Minnesota Vikings runs the ball for a touchdown in the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

I hated Mattison as a player until this season. He had simply never performed when given chances to carry the load in Dalvin Cook’s absence. As amazing as it would have been to see Cook take on the Lions even once this year, we already saw Mattison rip them apart earlier in the season. The salary is sharp, but the play is sharper.

RB – Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts – $9,200

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 28: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts is tackled by Lavonte David #54 and Sean Murphy-Bunting #23 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

I stan for JT. He has been my dynasty RB1 since Week 10 last season and hasn’t looked back. After two brutally tough matchups, where he still returned value in DFS, he is back on the AFC South cupcake tour against Houston. You might recall his 30 point performance before he was really on a roll. Scott should be shaking at the potential ceiling game incoming.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $9,000

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 28: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams avoids a tackle by Henry Black #41 of the Green Bay Packers during the second halfat Lambeau Field on November 28, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

The Jags did corral the powerful Bills earlier this year, but I believe Sean McVay will pull the tape on that game and isolate his best offensive player against the soft underbelly of this defense. The injuries to other skill players will force the Rams to lean even heavier on Kupp, which excites me, to say the least.

WR – Josh Reynolds – Detroit Lions – $3,400

Scott had one call right on Thanksgiving, throwing the former Ram and Titan into his GPP lines. The level of desolation in the Lions’ receiving corps was never more apparent than when Reynolds was thrown in the trash by a receiver-starved Titans team, then latched on with Detroit and was immediately their best option. The Vikings’ secondary is hot garbage and will have to defend a lot of pass plays.

WR – Quez Watkins – Philadelphia Eagles – $3,600

Quez is very young and raw, but he is making huge strides in this offense every week. He has already supplanted the atrocious Jalen Reagor on the depth chart. He gets a further upgrade with the much more accurate Gardner Minshew at quarterback for the Birds.

TE – Foster Moreau – Las Vegas Raiders – $2,700

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 21: Foster Moreau #87 of the Las Vegas Raiders looks for a flag in the game against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second quarter at Allegiant Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)

My main waiver squeeze this week (I have a TON of Darren Waller) is down at his normal backup price on DK. I don’t foresee a ton of upside for Moreau this week, and he will be entirely too chalky in GPPs, but he slides into this build like a cheese raclette.

FLEX – Elijah Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers – $6,000

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 28: Elijah Mitchell #25 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Levi’s Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

Shanahan has chosen Mitchell to be his bell cow. He now has very little choice, with injuries to Mostert and Sermon. Mitchell fits the scheme like a glove and was given a full load last week against the Vikings. The Seahawks are one of the worst defenses against the running back position as it is, so don’t be surprised if Mitchell goes for even more points this week.

DST – San Francisco 49ers – $3,000

A lot of people are grasping at straws this week, hoping that the Seahawks will finally allow DK Metcalf to catch passes again. I say, “the Seahawks really suck.” Russell Wilson is now cringeworthy on and off the field. The 49ers have hit a stride on defense and will be all over Wilson with Nick Bosa and company, with nary a single shred of threat in their running game. This is my favorite RB/DST stack on the slate.

Was it Over When the German’s Bombed Pearl Harbor?!!

In the legendary words of John ‘Bluto’ Blutarsky:

“What? Over? Did you say ‘over’? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!…

It ain’t over now, ’cause when the goin’ gets tough, the tough get goin’. Who’s with me? Let’s go! Come on!…(He ran to the front door but no one followed him)

Bluto (returning): What the fuck happened to the Delta I used to know? Where’s the spirit? Where’s the guts, huh? This could be the greatest night of our lives, but you’re gonna let it be the worst. ‘Ooh, we’re afraid to go with you, Bluto, we might get in trouble.’ (shouting) Well, just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I’m not gonna take this. Bo, he’s a dead man! McBigTime, dead! Niedermeyer…”

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,200

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 28: Rob Gronkowski #87 and Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are seen before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Tom Brady threw for five touchdowns and scored over 30 points the last time he played against the Falcons. It’s like it’s still Super Bowl 51 and the Falcons cannot stop Brady. I expect a safe 20 point floor from Brady, with a 30 point ceiling. I’m pairing him with Chris Godwin to inflict twice the pain on Bo each time they connect for a touchdown, which I am hoping is twice.

RB – James Conner – Arinzona Cardinals – $5,900

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 14: Running back James Conner #6 of the Arizona Cardinals scores on a 11-yard rushing touchdown against the Carolina Panthers during the fourth quarter of the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Panthers defeated the Cardinals 34-10. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

James Conner has been averaging 22.5 DraftKings points per game over his last four starts. The Bears are more than a touchdown underdog in this matchup which means that James Conner might be the hammer all game and then at the end to salt them away and grind out the clock. I am projecting him for 18 points, and a bright red flame next to his score on Sunday.

RB – Elijah Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers – $6,000

The Seattle Seahawks are terrible against the run. They give up over 31 points per game each week. Elijah Mitchell is the truth and my partner Mike “Cash” Collins at the Fantasy Millionaires was right. I was wrong. I want the whole world to know. I learn from my mistakes and think that Mitchell could be the absolute nuts this week at $6,000. Just like Bo to cock-block me by playing Mitchell this week as well. Looks like he’s eating Mike’s humble pie as well. Good to see. Tip of the cap to you good sir.

WR – Keenan Allen – LA Chargers – $7,500

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 21: Keenan Allen #13 of the Los Angeles Chargers reacts after a first down against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the third quarter at SoFi Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Keenan Allen is averaging 11.6 targets per game and already has 116 total targets this season, good for third overall at wide receiver. His 31% target share the last five weeks gives me confidence that 12-16 points are close to guaranteed. This game also has the potential to shoot out, which means at 20 plus point ceiling. He’s worth the $7,500 this week.

WR – Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,600

Chris Godwin is $6,600 and one of the best Cash and GPP plays on the board this week. The last time Tom Brady and Chris Godwin played the Atlanta Falcons earlier this season Godwin caught four of five targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. Godwin’s top 10 PFF matchup gives him the slight edge over stacking Mike Evans with Brady.

WR –  Tee Higgins – Cincinnatti Bengals – $5,800

CINCINNATI, OHIO – NOVEMBER 28: Tee Higgins #85 of the Cincinnati Bengals catches the ball over James Pierre #42 of the Pittsburgh Steelers for a touchdown during the first quarter at Paul Brown Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Tee Higgins showed out last week, catching six of eight for 114 yards, a touchdown, and 26.4 DraftKings points. This week the Bengals are favored in a potentially high-scoring game. The Vegas total is 49.5, which means that there will be plenty of points to be scored on both sides. Higgins priced at $5,800 is a tremendous Cahs game value with GPP upside.

TE – Foster Moreau – Las Vegas Raiders – $2,700

Foster Moreau is stepping into a very productive role in the Raiders offense. The last time he was the starter he caught all six of his targets for 60 yards and a score. His 18 DraftKings points are his ceiling, but his floor is safe in a matchup that is projected to reach or exceed 50 points. The $2,700 is just too good to pass up and I’m not surprised Bo has Moreau rostered as well.

Flex – Jamaal Williams – Detroit Lions – $5,400

Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams (30) looks down the field during warmups prior to an NFL football game between the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears in Detroit, Michigan USA, on Thursday, November 25, 2021. (Photo by Amy Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Jamaal Williams is the only game in town this week at running back for the Detroit Lions, who continue to establish the run, despite its futility. I love him in the flex this week, coming off of Thanksgiving when Bo beat me with Williams, it is going to feel extra special regifting him to Bo this week. LOL

DST – Cincinnati Bengals – $2,800

The Bengals were the most appealing pay-down option this week. I’m not in love with this play, but could definitely see them forcing a few turnovers and getting to Justin Herbert a few times.

Featured

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Trinkets and Baubles

December is here again. With the holiday season in full swing, my family is also celebrating my in-laws’ 40th anniversary and my nephew’s birthday early in the month. That’s also the precursor to the 29th, where my sister, daughter, close friend Vince (the one who first called me Big Time), and Matthew Berry celebrate their birthday. December is also a special month for football, with the NFL playoff race and college bowl season, but I’ll beg your pardon if I seem distant. I have a lot of things to juggle and stress about.

My daughter will be nine years old this year. She’s as sharp as they come and was gifted with an old soul, full of wisdom beyond her years. She also inherited my inability to pick up after myself in a timely manner. The kid is a tornado of crafting, drawings, video games, and stuffed animals. It took her and I two hours to clean her room last night. We folded clothes and had piles of stuff to throw away, donate to charity, and relocate. In the end, she still staunchly refused to throw away an old Amazon box with a blanket and a couple toys, where our cat Juney “occasionally sleeps when I kick her off the bed.” The cat never sleeps in that box, but tossing it was crossing the line.

Where am I going with this? Let’s just say that I might be too quick to throw things away, while Addison is reluctant to let anything go. I’ve seen too many episodes of Hoarders to think that this behavior is healthy, but maybe it’s better to compromise instead of picking this particular hill to die on. We will make another sweep through with a donation box before another double wave of gifts washes ashore at the end of the month. A couple years ago, her idea was just to “buy a bigger house.” It makes me chuckle (and shudder) to think back at the look of concern my wife and I shared with one another when she suggested that.

In fantasy football, and DFS, it’s a double-edged sword. If you cast away positive notions about a player too soon, you might miss out on future breakout performances. Should you hold onto fond memories of winning with someone, you might also be blinded to potential pitfalls that can cost you down the road. Many were hating on Joe Mixon after an injury-plagued 2020. He’s been in six perfect DFS lineups this season already. I keep trying to shoe-horn Laviska Shenault into lineups because he’s “too good and too cheap.” He hasn’t won me anything. I guess the message this week is, “keep an open mind.” Do I think Alexander Mattison, Myles Gaskin, and Foster Moreau are very good at football? Not exactly. They are still very likely to return value in DFS cash games on the Week 13 NFL main slate.

Week 13 is one of the biggest slates for value plays we’ve had this season. DK salaries are largely inclusive, meaning that there are so many good plays for cash because there aren’t many players too expensive to roster for their expected output. FanDuel is famous for this type of pricing, which I don’t tend to like. Whittling down your roster to the best players will be challenging. The volume-based EVO model should help you do that very thing.

Week 13 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 22: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after running for a first down in the first quarter of the game against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on November 22, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Quarterbacks

LAMAR JACKSON: @ PITTSBURGH ($7,800)

Lamar hasn’t looked like himself the last couple of weeks, culminating with his four interceptions in the last game. He still has a truly elite rushing floor and ceiling and faces a terrible Steelers secondary. Jackson also tends to play very well against the Steelers. I don’t expect Pittsburgh to have the scheme or personnel to confuse Lamar like the Browns did.

MATTHEW STAFFORD: VS JACKSONVILLE ($7,300)

Stafford has recoiled back into a Detroit-like shell the last few weeks. The Jags haven’t been terrible against opposing quarterbacks this season, but they really don’t match up well with this LA passing attack. A hobbled Darrell Henderson will also push the Rams to air it out with Kupp, Beckham (if healthy), Jefferson, and even Higbee.

TOM BRADY: @ ATLANTA ($7,200)

On a normal slate, this would be a nasty, chalky mess. With all the values on the board for Week 13, however, Brady stands to rebound after relinquishing all of his touchdowns to the running backs last week. Atlanta will get destroyed in this game, one way or the other. It’s doubtful that all of the touchdowns will miss Brady once again.

JALEN HURTS: @ NY JETS ($7,000)

Coming into this game, Hurts…hurts. He is dealing with a sore ankle, which might limit his rushing ability. On the other hand, I expect the running backs and receivers to have such a field day that Hurts will score a ton of fantasy points by dispersing the ball to his weapons.

KIRK COUSINS: @ DETROIT ($6,500)

Keeping with the theme of potent passing attacks matching up with horrible defenses, the Vikings will head to Ford Field to beat up on the Lions. Cousins won’t have the dynamic presence of Dalvin Cook to take pressure off of him, so there will be an uptick in passing volume to Jefferson and Thielen against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Mattison is Cook Ultra-Lite, but is very capable as a receiver out of the backfield to help Cousins further.

DEREK CARR: VS WASHINGTON ($6,000)

Washington’s schedule has really lightened up lately, which has made their defense look less like trash. The Raiders offense has been remarkably consistent this season, especially through the air. Carr has been a prolific passer, even if the touchdowns haven’t come through as well in the last couple of games. It’s safe to say Carr will pass for over 300 yards in this one, with a couple scores to boot.

TAYLOR HEINICKE: @ LAS VEGAS ($5,600)

Across the field from Carr is a less-consistent (but more athletic) option at quarterback that saves $400 in salary. Vegas’ secondary has been tough on bad teams and abysmal against good teams. Washington slots somewhere in the middle, especially with Logan Thomas back off the IR to alleviate coverage on Terry McLaurin.

TUA TAGOVAILOA: VS NY GIANTS ($5,500)***

The accuracy stats should surprise no one. Tua has been laser-precise all the way back to his freshman year at Alabama. Multiple teams tanked to be able to draft him. Now that he is more than a year removed from a catastrophic hip injury, he is dialed in. Miami has put some weaponry around him, namely Waddle and Gesicki. There is no way the Giants can slow down the Dolphins. Miami’s weakness is their offensive line, and the Giants have zero pass rush to exploit it.

TYROD TAYLOR: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($5,300)

Tyrod hasn’t been entirely consistent this season, especially after his stint on the IR with a bad hamstring. He is, however, underpriced this week against a Colts defense that is a wonderful pass funnel. Indy will be ahead early in this game, putting Tyrod squarely in garbage time hero territory for Sunday.

Running Backs

JONATHAN TAYLOR: @ HOUSTON ($9,200)

We all dreamed about this bell cow role for JT. Now that it is truly happening every week, he has become the belle of the ball for running back production. Indy will continue to bludgeon defenses with their great o-line and Taylor. After two “bad” matchups, where JT still feasted, an all-green date with the Texans is dilating my pupils.

AUSTIN EKELER: @ CINCINNATI ($8,300)

He may not be a “household name,” but Ekeler is up there with JT as one of the most consistently-dominant running backs in the game today. His health is part of that equation, but even the toughest matchups haven’t hampered his production in PPR formats. The previously touchdown-challenged Ekeler already has 14 this season.

JOE MIXON: VS LA CHARGERS ($8,100)

Once the most polarizing figures in all of fantasy sports, Mixon is now one of three elite running backs who has not been bitten by the ultra-venomous injury bug. Most of the knocks on Mixon after last season were surrounding how supposedly “injury prone” he is. The 2021 version is getting a bell cow workload without so much as a whimper. He now has a date with the league’s best run funnel defense.

ALEXANDER MATTISON: @ DETROIT ($7,600)***

I had thrown Mattison away after last season. It seemed like he shriveled whenever he was given the chance to shine when Dalvin Cook missed time. The Vikings give one running back nearly all the work, which renders Mattison useless until Cook goes down. This season, Mattison has been awesome when Dalvin Cook is out of action, averaging over 20 fantasy points per game as a starter. The Lions are one of the worst run defenses in NFL history. Mattison will feast, especially as a receiver out of the backfield.

LEONARD FOURNETTE: @ ATLANTA ($7,300)

Wouldn’t you know, Lenny was the ultimate leverage play last week. I watched all my Brady stacks turn my GPP lineups to ashes. I knew JT was a good leverage play, but Fournette was the slate breaker. It’s really hard to imagine him as leverage this week. As a cash play, he is a sure bet to dominate the Falcons. His new salary still made him close to being too expensive for his expected volume in this game.

ELIJAH MITCHELL*: @ SEATTLE ($6,000)

The rookie out of Louisiana is making waves as this year’s version of James Robinson. A waiver wire darling has now commandeered the bell cow role in the omnipotent 49ers rushing attack. The Seahawks have been a massive disappointment this season and will continue to be, when San Francisco lays waste to them in Week 13 behind a truly staggering performance from Mitchell.

JAMES CONNER: @ CHICAGO ($5,900)

Conner is on my GPP radar this week. The bye week blind spot will never be more obscure than on this slate. There are so many good plays to be had that Conner’s volume and receiving upside are easy to overlook. The return of Kyler Murray this week will ensure that Conner won’t need to fret over a loaded box.

MYLES GASKIN: VS NY GIANTS ($5,800)

It was odd to see Gaskin turn in a good game on an even-numbered week. He played terribly, as expected, but happened to also score twice. He is not a good football player at all, but the Dolphins offense is rolling through a Charmin-soft schedule these days. Gaskin will easily return good value yet again versus a putrid, pathetic excuse for a Giants defense.

ANTONIO GIBSON: @ LAS VEGAS ($5,700)

It’s truly a beautiful sight to see an uber-talented running back get so much work on Monday Night Football. We also get the residual benefit of the DK salaries getting released before his huge game, where his fantasy points-scavenging teammate also left with an injury. Gibson would be at $7k if he played last Sunday and Vegas won’t be able to slow him down.

JAMAAL WILLIAMS: VS MINNESOTA ($5,400)

Volume pays the bills and the Lions love to run the football and check down to their backs in the passing game. D’Andre Swift has very little reason to return to play this season, giving the artist formerly known as Jamaawful a clear path to become a darling of the fantasy playoffs. Williams will have a huge role in this game against a below-average Vikings run defense.

MILES SANDERS: @ NY JETS ($5,200)

The Eagles still hate Miles Sanders. They might not have a choice but to give him more carries this week, with Jalen Hurts nursing an ankle injury. Philly inexplicably gave fourth-string running back, Boston Scott more touches than Sanders last week in a loss. This team is a walking brain fart, but Sanders is the perfect weapon against a Jets team that gives up nearly 40 fantasy points per game to the running back position.

TEVIN COLEMAN: VS PHILADELPHIA ($4,500)

I was wrong last week. I incorrectly predicted that the Jets would give their most talented running back (Ty Johnson) the most touches. Instead, that honor was bestowed upon Coleman and even to journeyman practice squad player, Austin Walter (who?). It would be mind-numbing if they went back to Johnson, now that I’m hanging my hat on Coleman.

Wide Receivers

COOPER KUPP: VS JACKSONVILLE ($9,000)

Kupp is very easily the most consistent receiving threat on this slate, with Davante Adams on his bye week. The Jags have been average against wide receivers, but Kupp has been seeing abnormal volume this season and is well above average in the skill department. The Rams will need to lean even harder into the Kupp section of the playbook this week, with Henderson and Beckham limping around.

DEEBO SAMUEL: @ SEATTLE ($8,300)***

Kyle Shanahan didn’t need to, but he has successfully transitioned Deebo into a full-fledged running back; a really good one. As we mentioned with Mitchell above, the Seahawks are an utter failure this season, especially against “pass catching running backs.” The quotes are for describing whatever it is that Deebo Samuel has become. I want all the pieces of this 49ers offense, in what will be a huge rout.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON: @ DETROIT ($8,200)

The Dalvin Cook injury really does put the Vikings in a tough predicament on offense. They are fortunate to coordinate that injury to a date with the winless Lions. I do see more of an emphasis on the passing game coming for Minnesota, in order to exploit their huge advantage at receiver against this secondary. Both Jefferson and Thielen offer plenty of floor and upside the same.

ADAM THIELEN: @ DETROIT ($7,300)

I emphasized the huge price gap last week, which pointed me to play Thielen over Jefferson against the 49ers (woohoo!), but the gap is smaller this week. In cash, you don’t need to double dip on both guys, but this week will be more of a coin flip based on salary constraints when building your lineups. Thielen is a solid option yet again, especially with him being the favorite red zone option for Cousins.

DIONTAE JOHNSON: VS BALTIMORE ($6,800)

Boy, did the Steelers (Ben) look dreadful last week! This is not a good football team at all, but they are coached well enough to be competitive in most games. Pittsburgh leans into their best players, like Diontae, in these rugged divisional games. Johnson is a target monster and the Ravens have been suspect on the corners all season.

MIKE EVANS: @ ATLANTA ($6,700)

Much like with the Vikings receivers, you can very easily play either one of these guys in cash games this week. Evans and Godwin were extremely quiet last week, as neither one of them cracked double digit fantasy points against Indy. This is great in a way, reducing their salaries to comical levels against Atlanta.

CHRIS GODWIN: @ ATLANTA ($6,600)

Godwin was the receiver who got the ball punched out by Darius Leonard for a turnover in the open field. Chalk it up to an amazing play by a future hall of fame linebacker, but Tampa Bay was intent on winning on the ground last week. Atlanta is so bad at every level of the defense, that they will give it up through the air and on the ground Sunday. Godwin’s target share will hold strong yet again.

MARQUISE BROWN: @ PITTSBURGH ($6,500)

In a stunning development of a player’s role, Brown has already piled up 92 targets this season. Inexplicably, his DK salary also dropped $400 from last week. Pittsburgh is getting roasted by speedy receivers this season. It seems there might be a connection here.

JALEN WADDLE: VS NY GIANTS ($6,400)

These former Alabama receivers are truly special. All of them. I was cautiously optimistic coming into this season about Waddle. Miami misused him early in the season, but a healthy Tua has allowed the speedster to blossom as an NFL wide receiver over the last month. You might know by now that the Giants are a sorry excuse for a franchise and have no defense, so Waddle is a fun play with immense upside this week.

DEVONTA SMITH: @ NY JETS ($6,100)

I think the world of Smith. He is already a polished professional receiver, even if his quarterback doesn’t always deliver accurate, on-time passes to him consistently. The other Alabama rookie first round pick will have zero trouble getting open against the Jets.

HUNTER RENFROW: VS WASHINGTON ($5,800)

The target volume for Renfrow is as placid as an alpine lake on a windless afternoon. His salary has seen a steady rise all season as he continues to exceed expectations. The Cowboys and Football Team have similar struggles against slot receivers, with the former allowing Renfrow’s first 20-plus point performance of the season.

MICHAEL PITTMAN JR: @ HOUSTON ($5,700)

It was a 10 target game for Pittman last week, which came as no surprise to me after my prediction. The unfortunate part was that he only pulled in four of those targets for 53 yards. Houston is goin to have all of their eggs in the stop JT basket this week, freeing up the play action passes that make Pittman absolutely lethal.

BRANDON AIYUK: @ SEATTLE ($5,600)

I love that Aiyuk is cheaper than Kittle again this week. The 49ers never ask their wide receivers to eschew running routes to stay in for pass protection. Aiyuk’s sharp route running and elite athleticism will make him a nightmare down the field in Seattle. The Seahawks will be doing everything in their power to slow down the running game, leaving Aiyuk open to do damage.

VAN JEFFERSON: VS JACKSONVILLE ($5,300)

Jefferson is a true home run hitter this season. I don’t believe the Rams intend for him to assume that role, but with catching only 33% of his targets for 93 yards and a touchdown, we will take it. It would be even nicer if those nine targets were converted at a higher percentage against the Jags.

AJ GREEN: @ CHICAGO ($5,000)

The AJ Green disrespect must stop. We still don’t know if Hopkins will return to full strength at all in the near future, putting the 6’4″ future hall of famer Green in charge of the outside route running. I was ready to put Kirk on this list until I saw that the more-reliable Green was $600 less. He will give the Bears fits, whether Murray and/or Hopkins play or not.

RASHOD BATEMAN: @ PITTSBURGH ($4,900)

The ultra-talented rookie out of Minnesota has been very impressive so far this season. He has not yet eaten into the volume of Brown or Andrews, but his DK salary reflects that. The Steelers will have their hands full to try and slow down this passing offense. Yes, the Ravens passing offense.

LANDOVER, MD – OCTOBER 25: Logan Thomas #82 of the Washington Football Team celebrates after gaining a first down against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half at FedExField on October 25, 2020 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Tight Ends

MARK ANDREWS: @ PITTSBURGH ($6,000)

He’s the MANdrews! The 2021 TE2 behind Kelce comes in with three-consecutive games over 15 DK points. Pittsburgh is 11th at defending the tight end position, but really haven’t been challenged by many elite ones this season. Baltimore has needed to be more pass-heavy than ever before in the Lamar Jackson era because of their troubles at the running back position. I dig that against a pass funnel like the Steelers.

GEORGE KITTLE: @ SEATTLE ($5,900)

Kittle barely made this list. He is nearly too expensive for the six targets I have him projected for. He is simply too valuable as a blocker, despite his prowess as a game-breaking receiver. If he was under $5.5k, I would be a lot more comfortable with him in cash games. For now, I see him as more of an upside GPP leverage play.

KYLE PITTS: VS TAMPA BAY ($5,600)

Pitts is my favorite rookie receiver this year, but he is similar to Kittle in that he barely made this list. Matt Ryan has been so risk-averse this season in targeting Pitts that it’s infuriating. Even when Ryan does target Pitts, the passes have been largely uncatchable. To make matters even worse, Arthur Smith refuses to draw plays up for the rookie in the red zone. Pitts has only one red zone target since Week 6. Even his six target projection can get him on the watch list, but the coaching and quarterback play for the Falcons has been nothing short of a dereliction of responsibility.

ROB GRONKOWSKI: @ ATLANTA ($5,300)

Gronk is definitely back. He was nearly the key ingredient this week at tight end, narrowly missing out because of Logan Thomas’ incredible value prop. If I have the salary to round out my builds with Gronk, I will not hesitate to lock him in. He was spectacular last week, even without scoring a touchdown. That’s exactly what I hope for in a cash game.

MIKE GESICKI: VS NY GIANTS ($5,100)

For the last time (this week), I will highlight just how abhorrent and embarrassing the New York Giants’ defense is this season. You might have surmised that I will be stacking the Dolphins heavily in GPP, as well as lacing all my cash lineups with Fins (don’t tell PETA). Gesicki is at a very attainable price with his steady volume and touchdown upside in this offense. The only downside is how democratic Tua has been with target dispersal to his various receivers.

LOGAN THOMAS: @ LAS VEGAS ($4,000)***

What was supposed to be a tempered return to action for Thomas turned into a 77% snap share, six target performance against the Seahawks on Monday night. He very nearly cashed in with a late touchdown that was overturned on replay. The Monday night blind spot is smiling upon us this week with a top-flight tight end coming in at $4k against the second-worst defense against the position. I will be over the field on Thomas in GPP as well.

FOSTER MOREAU: VS WASHINGTON ($2,700)

The reason I’ll be able to be over the field on Thomas this week is because the Raiders’ ringer at tight end is going to summon all the chalk at $2,700. Darren Waller’s knee injury thrusts Moreau into the spotlight of this tight end friendly Vegas scheme. His last game as a starter ended up as a 6/6/60/1 performance against the Eagles. Washington is a bit stouter against the tight end position than Philly, so I won’t be eating the chalk pill this week on Moreau. He’s a fine play in cash.

Featured

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 12! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,600

TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 22: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after running for a first down in the first quarter of the game against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on November 22, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Tom Brady leads the NFL with 29 passing touchdowns and is third in passing yards with 3,177. He’s a damn machine at 44 and I’m banking on him this week to exploit the Indianapolis Colts’ terrible secondary that has given up 25 touchdowns and 2,861 yards passing to opposing quarterbacks. Brady is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, but he will still be popular. I plan on stacking him with Godwin and Gronk to maximize his upside and secure the majority of his potential touchdown passes. I’m comfortable playing Brady in small, medium, and large field GPP tournaments.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Cincinnatti Bengals – $6,200 

Joe Burrow and the Cinncinatti Bengals already gave the Pittsburgh Steelers the beat down this year, 24 -10 in Week 3. Burrow threw for three scores, connecting with Ja’Marr Chase twice. The Steelers didn’t have an answer for him then and they certainly don’t have one now, as they are battling injuries to the defensive line and in their secondary. I’m stacking these two and running it back with Diontae Johnson.

Value – Quarterback

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers – $5,600

In his first game back in Carolina, Cam Newton looked great, passing for two scores and rushing 24 yards for another. This week he faces a Dolphins defense that ranks 28th against quarterbacks, giving up 21 total touchdowns and 3,199 yards passing on the season. Cam is priced up $500, but is still a great paydown option for constructing high upside GPP lineups. Stacking Cam with D.J. is on the table, and so is playing Cam naked.

High Priced – Running Back

Christian McCaffery, Carolina Panthers – $9,000

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 21: Christian McCaffrey #22 of the Carolina Panthers carries the ball against the defense of the Washington Football Team in the first quarter of the game at Bank of America Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Christian McCaffery is OFFICIALLY back!! Last two weeks he combined for 51 points and has been the focal point of the Panthers’ passing attack. His 30% target share is comforting and I’m frankly shocked he’s not priced up higher. If it wasn’t for Jonathan’s Taylors explosive performance last week, CMC might be priced up even higher. I’m rolling him out in all GPP tournaments.

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Mid-Range – Running Back

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers – $5,900

A.J Dillon played well last week but did not “show up” and “show out” like we thought he would against the Vikings. 17 touches yielded only 15.7 DraftKings points. Dillon, who was one of the most popular plays on the slate last week, is only being rostered in 6% of DraftKings lineups in Week 12. The LA Rams are middle of the pack against running backs, giving up 979 rushing yards in 10 games. With a hobbled Aaron Rodgers, I expect the Packers to feed Dillon all game and also target him in the passing game.

Value – Running Back

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles – $5,100

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Miles Sanders #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles reacts prior to the game against the New Orleans Saints at Lincoln Financial Field on November 21, 2021, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Miles Sanders is also apparently back after rushing 14 times for 96 yards last week and is priced at only $5,100. The Eagles have reinvented themselves as a power-rushing team, running the ball 65% of the time the last three weeks. Jordan Howard has been ruled OUT for Week 12, meaning that Sanders should see the majority of carries against a terrible New York Giants. How terrible you ask. They have already given up over 1,600 combined rushing (1,060) and passing (573) yards to running backs. I probably should have kept this information to myself. Just don’t play Sanders against me, because I’ll have him too.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,000

TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 22: Chris Godwin #14 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after getting a touchdown in the first quarter in the game against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on November 22, 2021, in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Chris Godwin has 91 DraftKings points over his last four games. Mike Evans has 79 points over that same time span, as both have seen increased targets with Antonio Brown OUT. It looks like Brown will miss Week 12 as well, opening the door for Godwin to pick up the slack. His 37 targets to Evans 28 the last 4 games, combined with his $200 price discount, and Evans nursing a back injury makes this decision for me. I’ll be stacking Godwin with Gronk in almost all of my Tom Brady stacks this week. I am also planning on running it back with Michael Pittman as a full-on game stack option.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver 

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,600

Diontae Johnson is Mr. Consistent when it comes to DraftKing’s wide receivers. His lowest output of the season was 11.7 DraftKings points. He’s scored double-digit points in every game this season. His 95 targets are good for seventh-best amongst wide receivers. He’s seen 10 or more targets in seven of nine games. Johnson should be priced up in the 7K range, so enjoy his discounted price one more week. I will be running him back in Burrow/Chase stacks in medium and larger field GPP tournaments.

Value – Wide Receiver 

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – OCTOBER 31: Michael Pittman Jr #11 of the Indianapolis Colts catches a pass while defended by Breon Borders #39 of the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts – $5,600

Michael Pittman is the best wide receiver value on the DraftKings Week 12 main slate this week. The last two weeks the Colts’ offense has run through Jonathan Taylor. Pittman’s skill set was not needed in order for the Colts to win the games. This week he will be needed against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The 53 point total is the highest on the board this week. This game should stay competitive or see the Colts trailing and needing to pass to keep pace. Either way, I’m running back all of my Tom Brady/Godwin stacks with Pittman. I’m also building games stacks with him and Gronk and Wentz as well. He’s viable in all GPP formats.

High Priced – Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $6,400  

It’s so great to have George Kittle back!! Since his return, he’s been averaging 17.8 DraftKings points per game. For a little context, Travis Kelce leads the NFL with a 17.6 point per game average. Kittle has seen 19 targets the last three weeks and should see plenty of volume in this matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. According to PFF, Kittle as a 29% advantage over Eric Kendricks. I’m rostering Kittle in smaller field GPP contests.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccanneers – $4,400

TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 22: Rob Gronkowski #87 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up before the game against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on November 22, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Rob Gronkowski is back as well. I’m starting to see a theme for this week. “The Comeback” narrative is alive and well across the league in Week 12. Gronk returned last week and played well, catching six of eight targets for 71 yards. With Mike Evans battling back problems, I expect Brady to lean heavily on Gronk in the red zone this week. I would not be surprised to see him “Gronk Spike” at least once.

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Featured

Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Light It Up

I’m writing this on a made-up commercial holiday. Black Friday is every cliché about the American way of life, compressed into a 24-hour window the day after we’re supposed to reflect on all that we are thankful for. We are encouraged, if not urged, to spend our hard-earned and overtaxed dollars on supposed bargains for the greater economic good.

With an eggnog mustache and gravy stains on my sweater, I’ll be haunting the dark alleys of Amazon today. I prefer avoiding the droves of zombies on the hunt for a $300 HiSense TV with a credit card they haven’t even peeled the sticker off of. Plus, I don’t need worry about a cranky old lady pulling her mask down to sneeze on me at Best Buy if I don’t leave my living room

I will have to climb a ladder in my bearskin slippers today to pull Christmas decorations down from the attic. We eventually opted out of chopping down our own natural tree for a pre-lit artificial one a few years ago. I miss the outing and how undeniably sexy I look carrying an axe in a plaid shirt, but I don’t miss my old dog hiking his leg to mark the tree (and gifts) every day until we yeet the spider-filled fire hazard into the street.

If my house wasn’t so pretty all lit up with Christmas lights, I probably would think twice about risking my life by getting on the steep pitch of my second-story roof (also in my bearskin slippers) to hang them. The risks I take in DFS contests don’t involve the loss of life or limb, but there aren’t many people that will drive by and roll their window down to ooooh and ahhhh at my DraftKings lineups.

The main slate is trimmed down to a mere 10 games this week, making it skinnier than Devonta Smith. This is a good thing for playing cash games, limiting the variance of high volume players. We will attack this slate with the same process as always, leaning more on the conservative side with top-heavy salary distribution. Some of our cash picks really smashed as GPP standouts last week, just as we predicted. Expect scoring to be down this week, by comparison. The volume-based formula will be integral to winning on Sunday.

Week 12 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

TOM BRADY: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($7,600)

He might be older than one of my uncles, but Tommy is arguably the MVP frontrunner at this point of the NFL season. Nobody has been as consistent at hitting ceiling games and the 3-point bonus as the GOAT. Indy’s pass coverage has suffered this season after a litany of injuries. They are also a pass funnel defense.

JALEN HURTS: @ NY GIANTS ($7,300)

After three straight games under 10 points on DK, Hurts put up a monster ground game for over 30 against the Saints. The Giants are a rudderless embarrassment of a team and will get shellacked in this divisional game. Some concern might be how run-heavy the Eagles have been during this hot streak, but Hurts is a big part of why it’s working.

KIRK COUSINS: @ SAN FRANCISCO ($6,300)

Cousins is quietly having a remarkable season, highlighted by peak efficiency. I keep waiting for him to turn back into a late-November pumpkin like he always does, but he has been solid. The 49ers have shown signs of life on defense lately, but the weaponry that Cousins has around him is frightening.

JOE BURROW: VS PITTSBURGH ($6,200)***

This will be the most exciting game to watch on the slate. The Bengals’ offense is really clicking this season, even when their defense has been very inconsistent. I expect Burrow to attack this weakened Steelers back end relentlessly with all of his great receivers. They might also be more pass-heavy this week to meter down Joe Mixon’s workload.

CAM NEWTON: @ MIAMI ($5,600)

Cam Newton should have seen a huge hike in his DK salary, but now he’s going to be all sorts of chalk against the Dolphins at this price. Miami’s defense has improved, but Newton is fantasy gold at this value. Don’t be afraid to build your lineup around Cam and two stud running backs.

MATT RYAN: @ JACKSONVILLE ($5,500)

Matt Ryan is ticking me off this year. Some weeks he looks like a vintage muscle car, flying down the field with ease. Other weeks, he looks like every other Boston College quarterback in history except for Doug Flutie. The Jags can’t bring out bad Matt Ryan, can they?

TYROD TAYLOR: VS NY JETS ($5,300)

In the same vein as Cam Newton, these value-priced mobile quarterbacks will be very popular in GPP contests, but will allow you to pile more studs into your cash lineups with the top-heavy salary scales. The Jets don’t play defense, so I have plenty of confidence in Taylor’s ability to hit 18-20 points.

Running Backs

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY: @ MIAMI ($9,000)

Fade Jonathan Taylor?! After what we just witnessed? Yes. Every week deserves a new evaluation for DFS. I was wrong in expecting the Colts to be trailing Buffalo last week. I have the same prediction for this week against the Bucs. Tampa Bay should roll Indy, pushing for more of a Nyheim Hines game. The Bills don’t have a guy named Vita Vea either. Miami is horrible against opposing running backs and CMC is slightly cheaper. I’ll take the path of least resistance in cash.

NAJEE HARRIS: @CINCINNATI ($8,200)

Volume pays the bills in cash games and few touch the ball more times per game than Najee. The Bengals have also been a sieve against the run, which should boost Harris a bit behind his suspect offensive line. I’m really hoping for a nice shootout here, bringing Najee’s receiving upside back into focus.

JAMES ROBINSON: VS ATLANTA ($6,200)***

JRob sure looked healthy to me last week. He got bottled up against a tough 49ers run defense, but still found the end zone late. The Falcons are pitiful up front and even the Jags should be able to physically impose their will on the ground. At this salary, I will be way over the field on JRob.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS: VS LA CHARGERS ($5,200)

Every week could be the week that Javonte Williams leaves Melvin Gordon in the dust. To Gordon’s credit, he has been just as productive (albeit much less efficient). The Chargers have been run on plenty this season, refusing to load the box to prevent big passing plays. This bodes well for physical runners like Williams to break some big plays and find the end zone at least once.

MILES SANDERS: @ NY GIANTS ($5,100)

Could it be? Are the Eagles finally featuring their best running back? Despite dropping his only target and losing a fumble, Sanders had a season-high 16 carries for 94 yards. That was against a stout Saints run defense. The Birds get the pathetic, comically-terrible Giants this week. They might run for 500 yards on this team. At only $5.1k, Sanders is bound to produce at a value.

DONTRELL HILLIARD: @ NEW ENGLAND ($4,600)

Remember when we were marveling over the Titans’ offense in the preseason? Derrick Henry: OUT. Julio Jones: OUT. AJ Brown: OUT. This isn’t fun anymore. Hilliard had 15 touches (8 catches) last week in a stunning reversal of touch distribution in this backfield. While we have to listen to the Patriots fans pleasure themselves to a short winning streak against bad teams, the Titans are still good enough to beat them. Hilliard will get enough high value touches to hit at this price.

TY JOHNSON*: @ HOUSTON ($4,300)

I love this guy as a player. I also love Michael Carter, but he is inactive this week. Ty Johnson is an explosive back who will give the Texans defense fits on Sunday. Down at this salary, I will not hesitate to pull the trigger on an under-appreciated Jets player.

Wide Receivers

DAVANTE ADAMS: VS LA RAMS ($8,600)

I don’t give a hoot if Adams is covered by Deion Sanders himself, I’m playing his volume in cash, especially at a cool G less than Cooper Kupp in the same game. Matt LaFleur is a master at moving Davante around the formation to scheme him the ball (see last season). With the Ramsey fear, Adams is also a decent tournament play.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON: @ SAN FRANCISCO ($8,300)

With the way that the Vikings are rolling on offense at the moment, it makes no sense to walk away from the Jefferson heater. Mike Zimmer was peeved when it was leaked that they were planning to get the second-year pro out of LSU more involved, but the results have been nonetheless spectacular. The 49ers’ defense has been decent of late, but they don’t have a particularly strong coverage unit to limit Jefferson and Thielen.

KEENAN ALLEN: @ DENVER ($7,400)

We are finally seeing signs of life from this Chargers’ offense, after four down games. As the coaching staff releases their strangle hold on the playbook for Justin Herbert, the young Duck has been slicing and dicing defenses. Allen is his favorite option, as evidenced last week. Denver isn’t the worst defense, but it has been marred by inconsistent play. Bank on Allen’s target volume in this one.

JA’MARR CHASE: VS PITTSBURGH ($7,300)

This might only be the first or second time that the LSU standout rookie has made the cash list. He has been the ultimate cheat code for tournament play, but his volume is just now inching toward my threshold. The excitement and extreme skill level he puts on the field every week forced me to attack this play against the Steelers, who don’t have a healthy secondary. Burrow to Chase will be a killer stack once again.

CHRIS GODWIN: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($7,000)

Godwin is really on a roll these days with Antonio Brown recovering from a bad ankle injury. Now add in Mike Evans’ nagging back injury and Brady will have even more reason to attack the mismatches created by Godwin in the slot. Gronk’s return to play also helps the Penn State grad, by freeing up the seam and drawing attention in the red zone. The Colts will have no answers for this passing game, with the lion’s share of volume going to Godwin.

DEVONTA SMITH: @ NY GIANTS ($6,400)***

The Slim Reaper has been everything his nickname implies this season. Even with the Birds’ new emphasis on the physical running game, Smith has been the bread winner in the passing game. His elite route running has given Jalen Hurts more than enough space to fit the ball into. Smitty has also shown off a surprising penchant for making spectacular catches, which is the cherry on top for DFS.

DJ MOORE: @ MIAMI ($6,200)

Any time I can get an elite receiver down here in this bracket, I’m going to smash it. Cam Newton puts a ton of stress on opposing defenses as a dual threat. Christian McCaffrey returning adds another behemoth assignment to the front seven. As we saw last week, this frees up Moore to use his elite athleticism to make space plays all over the field in Joe Brady’s offense. Miami has no chance this week.

BRANDIN COOKS: VS NY JETS ($5,800)

Once again, I am returning to the underpriced Brandin Cooks well. I am wishing for another 10-target game against a dreadful Jets’ defense. I’ll get it this week, at an even greater value than before. As the attention draws to other games, I’ll also be stacking this game for its shootout potential.

ELIJAH MOORE: @ HOUSTON ($5,600)

Moore has gone from an exciting rookie GPP pick to an NFL alpha receiver in the matter of four weeks. As the alpha, you shouldn’t worry about the re-insertion of Zach Wilson at quarterback. There isn’t a lot more than bad timing that explains why Moore wasn’t as much of a factor with Wilson at the helm. This pair will be dropping bombs for years to come.

TEE HIGGINS: VS PITTSBURGH ($5,400)

Just like DK’s pricing algorithm finally came around on D’Andre Swift, they are taking their time putting some respect on Tee Higgins’ name. No bother to me. The target volume has been immense to match the Clemson product’s talent. Sometimes, residing in a teammate’s shadow is a great thing for DFS.

BRANDON AIYUK: VS MINNESOTA ($5,300)

While you were sleeping on the East Coast, the 49ers have been shifting their offensive balance of power. With Aiyuk sneaking out of the Shanahan doghouse, plus the healthy return of George Kittle, San Francisco is scheming running back work to keep Deebo Samuel involved. The passing is spread out, which has freed up the more talented receiver (Aiyuk) to make big plays like last season. The Vikings can’t stop anyone, so I’ll take this value and run.

ODELL BECKHAM JR: @ GREEN BAY ($5,000)

OBJ in cash? Yeah, it has been established that I’m insane. What is also established is that you can generally trust Sean McVay this season. He stated earlier this week that Beckham would be a “huge factor” in this week’s game plan. With the dearth of receiving talent around he and Cooper Kupp in the wake of Woods’ injury, I will lean on this offense because the price is definitely right.

LAVISKA SHENAULT JR: VS ATLANTA ($4,400)

It’s been a bumpy road to say the least for Viska truthers like myself. The injury bug has plagued this Jags receiving corps another time, placing Shenault right back into the slash role he should have had from the beginning. There have also been statements about him lining up as a running back like Deebo Samuel. It might be 12 weeks too late for season-long fantasy, but for DFS, it’s a screaming value.

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 31: Stephon Gilmore #9 of the Carolina Panthers defends against Kyle Pitts #8 of the Atlanta Falcons during the game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

Tight Ends

GEORGE KITTLE: VS MINNESOTA ($6,400)

This isn’t spending up. This is a nice price for a tight end with 30-point upside against the lowly Vikings. Don’t overthink it. If you have the salary, punch it in.

KYLE PITTS: @ JACKSONVILLE ($6,100)***

You didn’t think he would disappear, did you? Pitts is back on the map this week, after a couple brutal matchups. Matt Ryan is the catalyst. He shouldn’t look too terrible against a bad Jags’ defense. Pitts will find the end zone this week and crack 100 receiving yards.

NOAH FANT: VS LA CHARGERS ($4,600)

The Chargers funnel everything to the middle of the field on defense. This is why they are very tough against wide receivers, but bad against the run and against the tight end position. Fant is on the verge of a massive game. I’d bet he’s ready for it to be this one.

DAN ARNOLD: VS ATLANTA ($4,000)

A cash play with zero targets last week? Yes, I correctly faded Arnold last week, but now we’re back because it’s the Falcons and they don’t really have many other options to throw to anymore. It was a weird donut, but tight ends have those on occasion.

RYAN GRIFFIN: @ HOUSTON ($2,600)

I don’t usually punt tight end if I can help it for cash, but this is a prime example of DK simply not paying attention to the Jets’ passing game. Griffin is a reliable threat with steady volume. The return of Zach Wilson makes this even better.

Featured

Clash of the Mashed Potatoes and Gravy

Full of Gratitude

I met Scott Simpson on Twitter in the Spring of 2020. When we were invited to the same Sleeper dynasty league, I’m sure he knew pretty early on that I wasn’t going to let up on the trash talk. We have shared some amazing conversations and DFS victories. My “internet friend” is now like a brother to me.

I am thankful for his friendship. I am grateful for all that we have accomplished and excited for what we will accomplish in the future. With all the obligatory niceties on the record, I’m still a fierce competitor. I also have an acute memory of painful losses.

Last Thanksgiving, I was riding high. Nimble was in the dumps and sick of losing to me in the DFS ThunderDome (much like in the Clash right now). He rode Antonio Gibson’s massive game against the Cowboys to his own resounding victory over me. I know he reveres that victory; it was a thorough beatdown. The last thing I want is for him to think he can relive his Turkey Day triumph. I also remember the at losing in that fashion pissed me off to the extent that I didn’t lose to him again until the Super Bowl.

Here is my Thanksgiving Day slate lineup, specially brined and roasted for my dear friend. He is the mashed potatoes to my gravy, but I hope he’s saving room for some humble pie with extra whip.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders – $5,900

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 21: Derek Carr #4 of the Las Vegas Raiders fumbles while being sacked by Trey Hendrickson #91 of the Cincinnati Bengals at Allegiant Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Carr and the Raiders have been coming apart at the seams on offense since the release of Henry Ruggs. They now lack the type of deep threat that forces the defense to overcompensate. Carr has also fallen back into the old habit of hesitating to make the right throw and holding the ball too long before ultimately making a bad decision. I think there’s plenty of upside against the Cowboys, especially in the middle of the field. Carr’s salary is simply too low to ignore.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $6,000

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – NOVEMBER 21: David Montgomery #32 of the Chicago Bears runs with the ball against the Baltimore Ravens at Soldier Field on November 21, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

I see a stage…and I see a drummer. The stage is a super-early kickoff against a dreadful run defense. The drummer is Monty, who is one of the hardest-working players in the league (on and off the field). It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Monty get 30 touches in Matt Nagy’s lame-duck game, which portends to a bonanza of fantasy points.

RB – Jamaal Williams – Detroit Lions – $4,000

I had a huge double-take on this salary. Everyone forgot about how effective Williams has been this season as a tandem back to Deandre Swift before his injury. He came back to seven carries last week and should easily pay off at the minimum price against the Bears.

WR – Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills – $7,900

Diggs is a target monster, regardless of who the Bills are facing. He is the most targeted player in the NFL against man coverage. The Saints use man coverage the seventh-most of any team in the league. If Devonta Smith can get open against Marshon Lattimore, I would expect Diggs to light up his Christmas tree, even if it’s premature for the season.

WR – Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears – $5,700

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – NOVEMBER 21: Darnell Mooney #11 of the Chicago Bears attempts to catch a pass in the game against the Baltimore Ravens during the third quarter at Soldier Field on November 21, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

You cannot ignore a player under $6k who garnered 16 targets the week before. In typical Bears fashion, only a third were completed. One of those completions happened to be a well-blocked bubble screen that Mooney used to showcase his elusiveness and breathtaking speed. You might have heard about how terrible the Lions are at covering fast receivers, in which case you already know where I’m going with this.

WR – Cedrick Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $3,500

This play has everything to do with the absence of Amari Cooper, not CeeDee Lamb. Without their stud X receiver garnering all the coverage attention in the second half, even Wilson wasn’t able to find much open space from the slot last week. If CeeDee is activated from concussion protocol, Ced will be much more than a value dart throw.

TE – Darren Waller – Las Vegas Raiders – $6,400

It’s quite simple: Waller is a stud and the Cowboys can’t cover him. There’s a stack in it for me to boot. The key to Vegas’ offense getting back into their flow will be the ability for Carr to pepper Waller with targets like he did in Week 1. Waller’s ability after the catch also has a big opportunity to be showcased against a Dallas secondary that hasn’t tackled well this year.

FLEX – Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys – $8,000

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – NOVEMBER 21: Juan Thornhill #22 of the Kansas City Chiefs trips up Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter of the game at Arrowhead Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Some of the best vintage Zeke performances have come on Turkey Day (remember him jumping in the giant Salvation Army kettle?). He has a knee contusion that appeared to be pretty painful on Sunday, but he has practiced in full leading up to Thursday. Dallas was embarrassed against the Chiefs when they couldn’t establish the physical run game and left a flat Dak Prescott to run for his life with Chris Jones on the loose. Both Dallas running backs are in play here, but I’ll take the touchdown upside and volume.

DST – Las Vegas Raiders – $2,400

I was a double-sided shit coin that I flipped for the two defenses I could afford here. It was either these Raiders or the Lions. Detroit is so bad that even Andy Dalton could light them up, so at least I can hope Vegas can put some pressure on Dak and score some fantasy points. Not proud of it, but it unlocked some great players.

Turkey Bowl Szn

It’s Turkey Bowl Szn!! The most wonderful time of the DFS year. I’ve written exclusively all about my previous Turkey Day exploits here at NimblewNumbers.com. I love Thanksgiving so much! A full day of football and food, in the middle of the week, DFS, on a day off from work…is this heaven?! If not, it’s pretty damn close. If we could pull off a Billy Murray/Ground Hog Day scenario, I would relive Thanksgiving every day forever and ever.

Bo might not feel the same way. Go back and reread his intro. This time, read between the lines and you can hear just how badly I ruined his Thanksgiving last year. I’m sure the feast he consumed was through uncried tears of anguish seeing his beloved “Boys” and his DFS lineups get bludgeoned by Antonio Gibson. Another feather in my Thanksgiving cap, adding to the myth, lore, and legend surrounding my Turkey day holiday triumphs.

I love Bo and am genuinely grateful for our friendship. It means the world to me that I, out of all the people in the world, get to ruin his Thanksgiving. It’s a real privilege, my friend. I know you would do the same for me if you could. Instead, sit back with your favorite whiskey and cry those silent tears knowing that this year I’m thankful for you brother.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills – $7,800

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills is tackled short of the first down marker on third down by safety Amani Hooker #37 of the Tennessee Titans during fourth quarter at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Josh Allen and the Bills got crushed last week by the Colts, 41-15. Josh Allen still scored 18.2 DraftKings points, despite his horrible performance. This week Allen will rebound against a Saints defense that was just bludged by the Eagles on Sunday, giving up 40 points and over 250 yards rushing. Jalen Hurts rushed for 69 of those yards, meaning that Allen can exploit the Saints on the ground. Allen should be able to move the ball against the Saints through the air as well. Their secondary has given up 1800 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns to wide receivers, good for 24th best in the NFL.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $6,000

David Montgomery is the best running back value on the slate this week. The Lions are one of the worst tackling teams according to PFF. Monty specializes in breaking tackles. The Lions also rank 30th against running backs giving up close to 1,500 total yards and 17 total touchdowns. There’s a great chance for a touchdown from Monty this week. I’m sure that’s why Bo has him in his lineup as well.

RB – D’Andre Swift – Detroit Lions – $7,300

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – NOVEMBER 14: D’Andre Swift #32 of the Detroit Lions carries the ball during a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field on November 14, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

D’Andre Swift is quietly having a tremendous 2021, scoring the fifth-most DraftKings points for running backs, and averaging 19.2 points per game. This week he’s priced $700 less than Zeke, who is nursing a knee and an ankle injury. Jamaal Williams is back, but I’m not worried about Swift. He’s leading all NFL running backs in targets and receptions and is second in receiving yards.

WR – Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills – $7,900

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 21: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills and Rock Ya-Sin #26 of the Indianapolis Colts during the game at Highmark Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Kevin Hoffman/Getty Images)

Stefon Diggs is seeing nine targets per game over the last five games and is averaging 20.6 DraftKings points. Diggs has seen the end zone in back-to-back games and has the highest ceiling of any wide receiver on the Thanksgiving slate. Bo rostering him makes all the sense in the world.

WR – Darnell Mooney  – Chicago Bears – $5,700

Darnell Mooney is way too cheap! I knew immediately that Bo would have him on his squad. He’s been in love with Mooney ever since he read about his upside in this year’s WR2 Theory. Mooney has been lacking consistency at the quarterback position. Enter Andy Dalton, filling in for an injured Justin Fields filling in for an injured Andy Dalton. Either way, there should be opportunities for Mooney who saw 16 targets last week.

WR –  Cedric Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $3,500

CeeDee Lamb might just end up playing tomorrow. This is great news for the Cowboys, but it does put a damper on Wilson’s value. If Lamb is OUT, on the other hand, there’s a tremendous opportunity to be had at close to min price. The only disappointment was finding out that Bo was thinking similarly and also rostered Wilson.

TE – Juwan Johnson – New Orleans Saints – $2,600

Finally, a play that Bo does not have. With Adam Trautman out for this game, Juwan Johnson finds himself as the starting move tight end this Turkey day. This is more of a GPP play, but I need all the tricks up my sleeve to beat Bo this week.

Flex – Darren Waller – Las Vegas Raiders – $6,400

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 14: Darren Waller #83 of the Las Vegas Raiders runs down the field during the first quarter in the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)

Darren Waller is averaging nine targets a game and 12 yards a reception. These are wide receiver numbers and I’m cool with that. He’s the number one target for Derek Carr in a matchup that the Raiders are predicted to be trailing in. He has the highest ceiling of any tight end on the Turkey Day slate. No brainer that Bo has him on his squad.

DST – Las Vegas Raiders – $2,400

The Raiders are facing a banged-up Cowboys team that is missing Amari Cooper and possibly CeeDee Lamb. Ezekiel Elliott is nursing injuries and the offense looks out of sync. According to PFF, the Raiders defensive line, led by Max Crosby, has a 39% advantage over Dallas’ offensive line. Look for Dak to be scrambling and for him to have at least one turnover this week.

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Clash of the Beards and Bellies

I’m not that happy that I beat Simpson last week. We were both on the struggle bus with our lineups. I guess I only won because of the sunset on his lineup three hours earlier on the east coast. Don’t get me wrong, I loooooove taking my obligatory victory lap on social media, even if it’s the DFS equivalent of an infield single looking like a line drive in the box score.

Scott undoubtedly doesn’t want me to go all Phil Jackson and watch the hearty celebration that will accompany my second three-peat of the season, but he might not have a choice. My lineup is inevitable. With the snap of my finger on Tuesday, I built this lineup to aggressively chase a 200-point walloping to bring my series lead to 7-4. Sometimes, I play it conservative (like last week) and needlessly sweat out a narrow margin. Come Sunday, my lineup will either launch into the stratosphere or you’ll see me saluting as I go down with the sinking ship. Sharp bettors are slamming the former.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys– $7,200

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 14: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his rushing touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on November 14, 2021, in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

I couldn’t, in good conscience, not get a few pieces of the most important game of the year for my Dallas Cowboys. The Chiefs are riding high at the moment after three consecutive wins over hapless offenses. Dak Prescott is missing one weapon in Amari Cooper, but there’s a half dozen more right behind him who is ready to pick up his rifle and start shanking fools with their bayonet. Dak will be the highest-scoring quarterback on the slate.

RB – James Conner – Arizona Cardinals – $6,100

I officially renounced my distaste for James Conner as a running back a couple weeks ago. He looks better now than at any point since his rookie year. The sheer volume of quality touches for Conner is my favorite part about this game. Seattle has an atrocious run defense, especially against backs who can catch balls out of the backfield (see Alvin Kamara game). This is a wonderful value play with immense ceiling potential.

RB – Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins – $5,700

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 11: Jacoby Brissett #14 hands the ball off to Myles Gaskin #37 of the Miami Dolphins during the first quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Hard Rock Stadium on November 11, 2021, in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)

I still haven’t retracted my opinion that Gaskin has no earthly business leading an NFL backfield, but here we are. The odd-numbered week narrative is guaranteed to persist this week against the Jets, who have allowed 39 PPR points per game to opposing running backs. Gaskin isn’t good, but he will be scoring points this Sunday.

WR – Nico Collins – Houston Texans – $3,300

As I laid out in my Hot Cash article, I’m fully prepared to be wrong about Collins. The rookie from Michigan has been the picture of consistency in his limited work, making huge strides in improving the technique that I criticized in the preseason. The Titans have a very bad secondary, only masking it with a vigorous ball control offense. Tyrod Taylor is in line for a serviceable game, with the young Wolverine potentially breaking out.

WR – Tyree Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $8,200

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 14: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs walks off the field after a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on November 14, 2021, in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

The NFL’s target leader the last four weeks is Cheetah, who has assumed a much more diverse route tree in response to changes in coverage schemes to corral his ability to render the defense topless. Hill is ultra-elite after the catch and the Cowboys’ secondary hasn’t exactly demonstrated sound tackling or pursuit angles. I’m afraid of what Mahomes and Hill are capable of doing to this defense.

WR – CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys – $7,600

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 22: CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates with teammate Michael Gallup #13 following a touchdown reception during their game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 22, 2020, in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

I built this stack even before Amari Cooper was added to the COVID list. Now, it’s looking like a delicious Scott killer. CeeDee has been an alpha all season, obviously stepping up to be Dak’s preferred weapon of war. The Chiefs have been blessed with three consecutive opponents with differing levels of passing anemia, but they’re in for the rudest awakening possible.

TE – Dalton Schultz – Dallas Cowboys – $4,600

I thought long and hard about going with Michael Gallup here, but there is some uncertainty of which position he will play in Cooper’s absence. The Chiefs have been a sieve to opposing tight ends, where Schultz has often been the second passing option in Kellen Moore’s offense. There’s plenty of meat on the bone to go with any Cowboys offensive player this week.

FLEX – Elijah Moore – New York Jets – $4,900

If you have been following along with the Nimble team since the preseason, you know that Scott and I are enamored with the rookie out of Mississippi. We fought over Elijah like siblings in multiple drafts. We also called one another like teenage girls in the 90s when he had his breakout game against the Colts. Miami’s defense stinks worse than Joe Flacco. At least the grisly (and handsome) vet can find the open man. Moore will be that guy all day long on Sunday.

DST – Washington Football Team – $2,400

I’m very conflicted about this pick. On one hand, I think Cam Newton will be a fantasy force in this Joe Brady offense. On the other hand, Washington showed some real moxie in defeating the GOAT’s Bucs and ruining my DFS hopes last week. At this salary, I’m hoping for a few sacks and for Superman to show some rust now that HE’S BAAAAACK!

Studs Up!!

I cannot let myself lose to Bo three straight weeks, especially heading into Thanksgiving week. This week I loaded up my squad with studs who are projected to ball out, running over Bo with my three running back build. I’m absolutely thrilled to have CMC all to myself, A.J. Dillon as well. David Montgomery was weaponized against me last season, I’m excited to return the favor. This is going to be one of my best teams of the Clash, hope you bring your best lineup this week Bo.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers – $5,100

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 14: Quarterback Cam Newton #1 of the Carolina Panthers reacts during the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on November 14, 2021, in Glendale, Arizona. The Panthers defeated the Cardinals 34-10. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Cam Newton is too cheap to pass up this week at $5,100. He’s not the best quarterback play on the slate, but his points per dollar value is through the roof. I wanted to build a lineup with three high-scorings running backs and Cam lets me do just that. I also

RB – A.J. Dillon – Green Bay Packers – $6,200

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 14: A.J. Dillon #28 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates with fans after scoring a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field on November 14, 2021, in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

A.J. Dillon is my favorite play on the DraftKings Week 11 main slate. Aaron Jones is OUT for Week 11, which means “All Day Dillon” is about to be unleashed on the league. RunTheSims.com has Dillon projected for 23 points in his matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. I was shocked that Bo didn’t have him on his team. Advantage Scott.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $5,500

David Montgomery’s $5,500 price is ridiculously low this week. I for one love playing him as a one-off or using him as the run-back piece in the Lamar Jackson game stack. Montgomery saw 84% of the snaps in his return to action against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now David Montgomery is rested and has a 30% run blocking advantage according to PFF. The Ravens are giving up 25 fantasy points per game to running backs and rank in the bottom third in tackling. Montgomery is known for his ability to break tackles. It could be a long day for the Ravens and a good day for you if you roll with Monty.

WR – Rashod Bateman – Baltimore Ravens – $4,500

Rashod Bateman didn’t look like a rookie last week, hauling in six of eight targets for 80 yards. Bateman saw five more targets than Sammy Watkins, who was returning from injury. The Ravens will be able to pass on the Bears, who have given up over 1,600 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns to wide receivers. Marquise Brown is also a strong play in this game, glad Bo didn’t leverage me this week.

WR – Brandin Cooks  – Houston Texans – $6,000

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 07: Brandin Cooks #13 of the Houston Texans in action against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on November 07, 2021, in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

Brandin Cooks saw 14 targets in his last game from Tyrod Taylor. Cooks also has games of 11, 13, and 14 targets this year. The Titans rank 32nd against wide receivers, giving up 45 plus points per game. Cooks is projected 8-10 targets and should score a touchdown this week.

WR –  Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $8,200

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 13: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after his third-quarter touchdown reception against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on October 13, 2019, in Kansas City, Missouri. Hill had two touchdown receptions in the game. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous man on the DraftKings slate. He has 40 and 50 point performances this season. No shocker, Bo has this play as well. Whenever I make a power move, Bo is there. If anything, the guy is one of the best plays each week. We both agree that Hill has tremendous upside and should see 10-12 targets in this shootout.

TE – C.J. Uzomah – Cinncinati Bengals – $3,500

C.J. Uzomah has been hit or miss this season, scoring 24 and 26 points, but also seven and six. The Raiders game has the second-highest total on the board with 50 points up for grabs. Joe Burrow has passed for over 30 attempts in six of nine games. This game script should see Uzomah in play all game long. A touchdown would just destroy Bo. Fingers crossed.

Flex – Christian McCaffery – Carolina Panthers – $8,900

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 14: Quarterback Cam Newton #1 of the Carolina Panthers talks with Christian McCaffrey #22 during the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on November 14, 2021, in Glendale, Arizona. The Panthers defeated the Cardinals 34-10. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Christian McCaffery is back!! Last week he amassed 156 yards and scored 26.1 points without the 100 rushing bonus or scoring a touchdown. The Washington Football Team is down Chase Young and Montez Sweat in this matchup, great news for CMC and his point total potential. He has the highest ceiling this week according to RunTheSims.com.

DST – Detroit Lions – $2,100

This is a pure pay-down play. The Lions are a young and hungry defense, who sucks. I just needed the money to get to CMC. The End.

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Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 11! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon. All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – $7,200

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 14: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his rushing touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are currently +2.5 road underdogs in their game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The 56.5 total means that Dak will be most likely chucking it on Sunday. Last week Dak scored over 26 points in a game that was over at halftime. Stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb ($7,600) and either Amari Cooper or Michael Gallup makes sense if you are looking to maximize your leverage in larger field GPP tournaments. Sal Verti currently has Lamb for under 7% rostership, which means that people are afraid to pay up for him.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders – $5,900 

The Bengals vs. Raiders 50 team total is quietly the second-largest team total for Week 11. Both offenses are better than their defenses. The Bengals give up close to 37 fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Hunter Renfrow ($5,800) and Darren Waller ($6,100) both have favorable matchups and should be used heavily in this back and forth game script. Stacking Carr with either or both makes sense given their relatively low costs.

Value – Quarterback

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers – $5,100

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 14: Quarterback Cam Newton #1 of the Carolina Panthers reacts during the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Panthers defeated the Cardinals 34-10. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Cam Newton is back in Carolina!! What a week to be back as the starter as the Panthers welcome back ex-head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington Football Team. The revenge narrative aside, Cam has a juicy matchup against a WFT defense that was already ranked 32nd in points against the quarterback and will be without you stars Chase Young and Montz Sweat this week. Cam’s rushing upside was on display last week when he rushed for one score and set up another. I love Cam at his $5,100 price tag and will be playing him naked or stacked with CMC for only $14,000.

High Priced – Running Back

Christian McCaffery, Carolina Panthers – $8,900

Speaking of Christian McCaffery, he’s back too!! Last week CMC scored 26.1 points without rushing for 100 yards or scoring a touchdown. Don’t overthink this one. Despite the low game total (43.5), I trust McCaffery in this matchup to score 25 points. With a ceiling closer to 37 points, I’ll pay up for CMC this week in small to mid-sized GPP field tournaments.

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Mid-Range – Running Back

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers – $6,200

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 14: A.J. Dillon #28 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates with fans after scoring a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field on November 14, 2021, in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

A.J. Dillon is my favorite play on the DraftKings Week 11 main slate. Aaron Jones is OUT for Week 11, which means “All Day Dillon” is about to be unleashed on the league. RunTheSims.com has Dillon projected for 23 points in his matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. He’s currently running an 18% optimal rate and the secret looks to be out. Dillon is currently projected to be rostered in close to 30% of builds. I’m fine eating the chalk, just make sure that you diversify elsewhere in larger GPP contests.

Value – Running Back

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears – $5,500

David Montgomery’s $5,500 price is ridiculously low this week. I for one love playing him as a one-off or using him as the run-back piece in the Lamar Jackson game stack. Montgomery saw 84% of the snaps in his return to action against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now David Montgomery is rested and has a 30% run blocking advantage according to PFF. The Ravens are giving up 25 fantasy points per game to running backs and rank in the bottom third in tackling. Montgomery is known for his ability to break tackles. It could be a long day for the Ravens and a good day for you if you roll with Monty.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – $8,400

According to PFF, Davante Adams has the second-best cornerback matchup for Week 11. Great news for Aaron Rodgers and for everyone who pays $8,400 for Adams. One of my favorite ways to roll Adams out is in a game stack with A.J. Dillon and Dalvin Cook as the run-back. In this build, I am banking on the Packers’ offense being concentrated on Adams and Dillon, Rodgers’s two best players. Running it back with Dalvin makes the most sense given the game script and leverage it gives you over the field.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver 

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – $6,000

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 07: Brandin Cooks #13 of the Houston Texans in action against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on November 07, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

Brandin Cooks has games of 11,13, 14, and 14 targets this season. Tyrod Taylor should be targeting him early and often this week against a Tennessee Titans secondary that ranks 32nd against wide receivers, giving up over 46 points per game. The Texans should be trailing in their matchup against the Titans and Cooks should see 8-10 targets as they scramble to keep up. I’m comfortable loading Cooks into all my GPP builds, no matter the tournament or field.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys – $4,200

Last week Michael Gallup returned and saw more targets than an ailing Amari Cooper, scoring 7.2 points. This week he is still priced down in the 4K range making him a great value dart throw in GPP tournaments. I will be primarily stacking him with Dak Prescott in Cowboy/Chief games stacks as the second wide receiver option. I’m comfortable playing Gallup as a one-off at his $4,200 price as well.

High Priced – Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $6,300  

SANTA CLARA, CA – NOVEMBER 15: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers makes an 8-yard touchdown catch during the game against the Los Angeles Rams at Levi’s Stadium on November 15, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Rams 31-10. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

It’s so great to have George Kittle back!! In the last two weeks, he’s scored 24 and 16 points respectively. He’s seen 15 targets, amassed 151 receiving yards, and has scored twice. This week Kittle is facing a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that hasn’t been terrible against tight ends, but they haven’t faced any as good as Kittle either. PFF has Kittle with a 32% advantage over Jags’ linebacker Damien Wilson. I expect Jimmy G. to continue to target Kittle, particularly in the red zone. I’m comfortable paying up for Kittle and at under 6% projected rostership, he’s leverage over Kelce and Waller.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – $4,000

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: Dawson Knox #88 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball in for a touchdown that is called back by a penalty during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Bills 34-31. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Dawson Knox returned to action last week after missing a few games recovering from a broken hand. He caught his only target for 17 yards. This week, he’s priced down $500. Take the discount and play Knox this week. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley missed practice this week nursing their own injuries. The Indianapolis Colts rank 27th against tight ends, giving up over 16 points per game. Knox is picking up less than 1.2% rostership, you know what to do. Smash.

Value – Tight End 

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears – $3,400

Don’t look now, but Justin Fields might have a new favorite target and it’s Cole Kmet. The last time they took the field together in Week 9, Kmet was splashing against a formidable Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense for six receptions and 87 yards. The Baltimore Ravens print money to the tight end position, giving up over 17 points per game. I love Kmet as a punt tight end this week in larger GPP field tournaments.

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Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Totally Hooked

Addiction runs in my family. Self-discipline does not. The preferred crutch has been alcohol, for the most part. I have been able to steer clear from letting booze control my life the way it did with my grandfather and father for most of their adult lives. I’m a nail biter. I drink way too much coffee. I will gamble on just about anything. The list of my vices goes on like a laundry list, but to this point I have been fortunate to avoid the ones that can ruin my life.

Some things, like DFS, actually bring me incredible enjoyment. I’m hooked to the sweating and tilting and I cannot get enough. I’ve spent the past few years chasing the dragon that is taking down a big tournament. I’ve had some really big wins over the years, but haven’t actually finished first in any GPP since 2019. I play cash games to snowball my DFS bankroll. It’s a very effective way to get more of those high-volatility lottery tickets. I’ve outright won seven large-field 50/50 games since my last tournament win.

It’s straight painful to build a “cash lineup” that ends up scoring enough points to win the tournament you built different lineups for. You’re left with a nice $100 off your $50 entry, but left wanting for the thousands you missed out on. My 2021 season has been a complete 180 degrees from last year. In 2020, I profited in cash games in all-but-three main slates, from Week 1 through the Super Bowl. It has been a struggle this season, pulling in at 50 percent. The process is sound, but the players I’m rostering simply haven’t been playing to expectation or have been injured during the game.

My bankroll hasn’t been snowballing, my gambling is ice cold. Ever the stubborn go-getter, I still have hope. Hope and potential get people fired, but I’ll keep playing because I won’t fire myself. There is still a large skill element to DFS and I have helped a lot of you wonderful consumers of my work win some impressive sums of money. That’s all I need to keep this going. Individual results will ebb and flow for eternity. I write for the smiles and grind tape and data to fortify my process each week for all of our lineups.

Now that we’ve gotten down and dirty with honesty and stories of getting humbled, lets dive in on Week 11. Everything I’ve seen so far this week points to me using my “chalky” cash lineups in tournaments as well. The chalk is going to smash on the main slate. These might be plays designed for 50/50s and head-to-heads, but I’d be stunned if they didn’t cross over as simply “good plays” across all contest types.

Week 11 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 11: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his touchdown reception against the New York Giants during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium on October 11, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

Quarterbacks

JOSH ALLEN: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($8,100)

The perfect passing funnel offense meets a worthy pass funnel defense in this AFC showdown. Buffalo doesn’t even pretend to establish the run, unless done so by their monolithic signal caller. Indy is much tougher up front than on the back end, so expect a ceiling game for Allen.

LAMAR JACKSON: @ CHICAGO ($8,000)

Jackson was bottled up last week, then battled an illness this week. He is still a dynamic playmaker with an unmatched rushing floor and ceiling. He also has a stud rookie receiver building up to a breakout performance against a putrid Chicago secondary.

PATRICK MAHOMES: VS DALLAS ($7,600)

We got a nice reminder last week that Mahomes is still elite. Granted, the Raiders thumbed their nose at the proven success of Cover-2 Shell against the Chiefs’ deep passing attack. They instead opted for Cover-3, which proved moronic with the athletic advantage on Kansas City’s side. Cover-3 is the preferred scheme for Dallas DC, Dan Quinn, but they have been wonderfully multiple this season. The Cowboys will have a hard time defending Mahomes in any case this week.

DAK PRESCOTT: @ KANSAS CITY ($7,200)***

I fully expect Kellen Moore and the Dallas offense to plan for this abhorrent Chiefs’ defense more successfully than the Raiders did. Even without Amari Cooper, Prescott will have a full stable of weaponry that will put at least 35 points on the board. Lock him in for 25 fantasy points on Sunday.

AARON RODGERS: @ MINNESOTA ($7,000)

Next to Dak, Rodgers is my favorite quarterback play for Week 11. He seems to always have big games in Minnesota, where the Vikings sport one of the league’s worst coverage units. It won’t just be Davante Adams, either. Rodgers will be dealing to a variety of receivers, leaving the Vikings with little recourse to slow them down.

RYAN TANNEHILL: VS HOUSTON ($6,700)

Interestingly, Tannehill’s efficiency as a passer has gone up since the Titans lost Derrick Henry to injury. They are running the ball just as frequently as before. Even with a no-name group of pass catchers around AJ Brown, Tannehill is still putting up good fantasy numbers. Houston won’t be the defense that stops that trend.

JOE BURROW: @ LAS VEGAS ($6,600)

In a GPP, the Bengals stack has been quite lucrative this season. For cash, we need to proceed with caution in games where Cincinnati is likely to use their advantage in the running game. This seems like a shootout type of game, so Burrow & Co will be chucking the ball early and often against a terrible Raiders’ secondary.

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – SEPTEMBER 12: Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Cleveland Browns hands off to running back Nick Chubb #24 during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Running Backs

DALVIN COOK: VS GREEN BAY ($8,200)

Much like Aaron Rodgers feasts on the Vikings, so does Dalvin Cook to the Packers. His volume of work will again see an uptick after another week away from the injury report. One thing we haven’t seen a lot of this season is target volume, which should change to exploit a glaring weakness in the Green Bay coverage.

NICK CHUBB: VS DETROIT ($7,800)***

Praise be, Chubb has been activated from the COVID list just in time for his most favorable matchup of the season. Detroit has been gashed relentlessly by opposing running backs and Chubb is averaging six yards per carry on the campaign.

JOE MIXON: @ LAS VEGAS ($7,600)

The post-bye blind spot blesses the Bengals this week, although Mixon is not coming at an extreme value. This is probably because he exceeded 25 points in his last two games. The Raiders were initially pretty decent at defending running backs this year, but have since been ripped apart in negative game scripts. The Bengals will roll in this one, with Mixon carrying a heavy load.

JAMES CONNER: @ SEATTLE ($6,100)

Somehow, the NFL’s leader in touchdowns is cheaper than he was in a less-favorable matchup last week. The Seahawks are atrocious at defending running backs and Conner is playing like an absolute beast this year. Look for him to command the goal line opportunities, even if Kyler Murray returns from his ankle injury.

MYLES GASKIN*: @ NY JETS ($5,700)

The most consistently inconsistent player in the NFL is Gaskin. He has scored in double-digits in every single odd-numbered week in 2021. Week 11 brings the Jets, who have allowed 39.8 PPR points per game to opposing running backs. They also are the worst in the NFL at allowing receiving yards to running backs, which is the one area in which Gaskin hasn’t been terrible this season.

DAVID MONTGOMERY: VS BALTIMORE ($5,500)

Volume pays the bills in cash games. Monty returned from the IR to a full workload, casting aside any rumors that impressive rookie Khalil Herbert would eat into his role in the second half of the season. Baltimore is no longer the defensive stalwart of yesteryear. This is an absolutely scintillating value on the slate.

MARK INGRAM: @ PHILADELPHIA ($5,400)

As I was formatting this article, Alvin Kamara was officially ruled out for Sunday with his MCL sprain. With this news, Ingram slots in as a premium value for DFS running backs. The added bonus is that the Saints are heading to Philly to face a really bad run defense. I expect Ingram to get a lot of work and he is extremely likely to score a touchdown.

JEFF WILSON, JR: @ JACKSONVILLE ($5,100)

I am simply not convinced (nor are my Twitter PT friends) that Elijah Mitchell will play much, if at all on Sunday with a fractured finger. Even if Mitchell guts it out after surgery, he will be compromised. Wilson is a favorite of Kyle Shanahan’s and slots into a nice workload against a Jaguars team that should get blown off the field by the 49ers.

D’ONTA FOREMAN: VS HOUSTON ($4,900)

I wasn’t sold on Foreman until he went and changed his jersey number, put on red sleeves, and started rocking the tinted visor. He played like an alpha back last, albeit without putting forth a great fantasy performance. Peterson looks his age and McNichols is battling concussion protocol. This is another value running back that will be easy to fit into your DFS builds.

Wide Receivers

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 13: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after his third quarter touchdown reception against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on October 13, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. Hill had two touchdown receptions in the game. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

DAVANTE ADAMS: @ MINNESOTA ($8,400)

Adams is the most reliable, consistent target hog in the NFL. He will have a pre-Thanksgiving feast in Minnesota on Sunday. I am projecting over 15 targets for Davante this week, so do the math on what his production will end up at.

TYREEK HILL: VS DALLAS ($8,200)***

The NFL’s leader in targets the last four weeks is a guy whose name isn’t normally associated with volume. Cheetah has settled into a role with much more route diversity to combine with his all-world ability to make extraordinary plays in space. The Cowboys allow a lot of big plays down the field and will struggle to contain Hill, even if they shadow him with Trevon Diggs.

STEFON DIGGS: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($7,900)

It was a long time coming, but Diggs had his first mega performance last week against the Jets. New York attempted to cover the All-Pro with man-to-man, attacking Josh Allen unsuccessfully with a myriad of blitzes. Indy is much more conservative, but their corners are getting roasted every week. Diggs will be back at the top of the scoring again this week.

DEEBO SAMUEL: @ JACKSONVILLE ($7,800)

The only reason we aren’t talking about Jimmy Garoppolo’s poor play is because Deebo Samuel is making spectacular plays on a weekly basis. Jimmy is playing smart by peppering Samuel with a massive target share. Deebo is even playing a few snaps per game as a running back to put the ball in his hands even more. The Jags don’t have anyone who can slow this train down.

CEEDEE LAMB: @ KANSAS CITY ($7,600)

Lost in the hoopla of Lamb’s big game last week is a minor arm injury that he has dealt with all week. Now with Amari Cooper on the COVID list, all of the attention has gone to Michael Gallup. I’m still firmly in the CeeDee camp. He is Dak’s favorite receiver this year and will get fat on the Chiefs in this marquee game.

BRANDIN COOKS: @ TENNESSEE ($6,000)

It seems that Cooks is always finding himself in Hot Cash. This is a true post-bye blind spot. Most DFS players won’t be as heavily exposed to the Texans-Titans game as I will be. Tennessee has some of the worst corners in the league, masking them only through a potent ball control offense. Cooks will get a ton of targets from Tyrod Taylor, with potential for a big breakout.

JALEN WADDLE: @ NY JETS ($5,600)

I was a bit worried about including Waddle in Hot Cash after last week’s game. He went from the short yardage slot role to more of an appropriate downfield route tree against the Ravens. Albert Wilson was getting his usual work and Waddle only saw six targets. I am actually excited to see if that trend continues against the Jets, who are as bad as any team at defending deep passes. Waddle might be a slate-breaker.

ELIJAH MOORE: VS MIAMI ($4,900)

DraftKings is biased against rookies, which is fine and dandy to me. DFS players can clean house with the young bucks hitting their stride in the second half of the season. Moore has taken over as the alpha receiver in New York and now has Joe Flacco as quarterback. Flacco isn’t great, but knows how to find the open man. Moore is that open man on just about every play, according to Reception Perception.

RASHOD BATEMAN: @ CHICAGO ($4,500)

Are you noticing a theme with these more affordable wide receivers? Breakout rookies…everywhere! Marquise Brown hasn’t slowed down with the emergence of future alpha, Bateman. Brown is working through a thigh injury. The rise of Bateman has also made the Ravens offense more pass-forward than ever before in the Lamar Jackson era. These are exciting times, especially at this salary for Week 11.

NICO COLLINS: @ TENNESSEE ($3,300)

That’s right, four rookies to wrap up my Week 11 Hot Cash receivers. I’m ready to admit my wrongness on Collins very soon. He has been amazingly consistent in limited work this season. Now that Taylor has returned healthy, we will see the best that the Michigan product has for the remainder of his rookie year. A date with a putrid Titans’ secondary at $3.3k makes this even more tasty.

Tight Ends

TRAVIS KELCE: VS DALLAS ($7,100)

The Cowboys did a great job last week at clamping down on the amazing Kyle Pitts, but the Falcons don’t have a Tyreek Hill or a Patrick Mahomes. Kelce is also much more savvy at beating double teams at this stage of his career. Dallas still struggles to cover the tight end and slot positions where Kelce will be running his routes. He’s a safe-but-expensive play for Week 11.

GEORGE KITTLE: @ JACKSONVILLE ($6,300)***

With arguably the same projection as the gold-plated Kelce, I have Kittle as my favorite tight end for Week 11. The $800 discount is more than enough to favor Stone Cold Kittle in a very palatable date with the Jags. I’ll be playing him in all formats, salary permitting.

MIKE GESICKI: @ NY JETS ($5,200)

Don’t let last week’s donut distract you from the big picture: Gesicki is a target hog. He still garnered seven (horribly inaccurate) targets last week, which means you can play him with confidence in cash games, especially against terrible defenses like the goddamn Jets.

DALTON SCHULTZ: @ KANSAS CITY ($4,600)

I very nearly put the triple asterisks next to Schultz’s name, but Kittle was just too good to pass up. With Jarwin (and now Cooper) out, the Stanford product stands to see a nice bump in looks from Dak against a very bad defense. My hope is that Kansas City won’t think to shadow the tight end with Tyrann Mathieu, who has done a much better job than the horrendous Daniel Sorensen.

DAWSON KNOX: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($4,000)

I missed on Knox last week. The same went for Cole Beasley. I honestly thought the Jets would have played more zone, opening up passing lanes to the tight end and slot receiver. Instead, they went man and left Diggs wide open. The Colts are a heavy zone team and struggle to cover anyone. Knox will be back on the map this week.

CJ UZOMAH: @ LAS VEGAS ($3,500)

I hope you didn’t think I gave up on Uzomah. After two down weeks, followed by the bye, I am very high on him for GPP value with upside out the wazoo against the Raiders. Vegas ranks 30th against tight ends in the NFL, which is nice. I expect Hayward to cover Jamarr Chase, leaving lesser men in coverage for Higgins, Boyd, and Uzomah.

MYCOLE PRUITT: VS HOUSTON ($2,600)

It’s pretty funny that I always pigeon-holed Pruitt as a blocking tight end. Apparently, it was Arthur Smith that did that. Pruitt’s athletic profile is very impressive for a tight end and the more-targeted Geoff Swaim (shoutout NorCal) has been ruled out against the Texans on Sunday. If you’re pinching pennies, you could do a lot worse than Pruitt. He is as likely as any Titan to find the end zone.

Featured

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

In Dominating Fashion

There’s something endearing about a villain. Maybe it’s just me, but Michael Richards in “Problem Child” and Christopher Lloyd in “Dennis the Menace” were some of my favorite antagonists. It could be that they were scaring some troubled youth right back on the straight and narrow. They were unabashedly disgusting and askew from gentrification, free to unleash a brand of chaos that we found frightening in the 90s.

I emerged from the mud and mediocrity last week to rain chaotic hellfire on poor Simpson. I didn’t even need Chase Edmonds’ vitality to romp and puff my chest out for the world to see. For the first time all season, Scott bore the brunt of my best lineup. His menacing and maniacal fireside call-out sealed his fate. For my next act, I will force him to listen to Baby Shark on loop for two hours if I win this week. What if, this entire time, I was the villain?

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,600

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – JANUARY 24: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up prior to their NFC Championship game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on January 24, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

The GOAT is averaging over 330 passing yards per game this season and is facing a secondary that is allowing over 300 yards passing per week. Even without a couple weapons, I can’t picture Brady having any trouble ripping Washington apart.

RB – Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings – $8,000

BALTIMORE, MD – NOVEMBER 07: Dalvin Cook #33 of the Minnesota Vikings carries the ball against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium on November 7, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)”nNo licensing by any casino, sportsbook, and/or fantasy sports organization for any purpose. During game play, no use of images within play-by-play, statistical account or depiction of a game (e.g., limited to use of fewer than 10 images during the game)

A disturbing story about Cook from last year surfaced this week, distracting some from a choice matchup against the Chargers. LA has a nice run funnel and Cook will get a ton of work with plenty of upside.

RB – Najee Harris – Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,900

Any bell-cow back that gets to face the Detroit Lions puts dollar signs in my eyes and drool down my chin like when Sylvester the cat sees Tweety in his cage. Najee is a bona fide stud and will absolutely feast on this defense.

WR – Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,900

TAMPA, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 24: Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts in the second quarter against the Chicago Bears in the game at Raymond James Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

With the injuries to Gronk, AB, and Godwin (game-time decision), the Tampa Bay receiving situation has been narrowed to the point of great clarity. Evans is going to feast on this terrible Washington secondary. As always, he is a threat to score multiple touchdowns to boot.

WR – Diontae Johnson – Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,800

CLEVELAND, OHIO – OCTOBER 31: Diontae Johnson #18 of the Pittsburgh Steelers reacts during the second half against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

DiontBAE is the preferred target in the Steel City for Big Ben, no matter how impressive the Muth has been. He is a technician on the outside and will have more reign over the route tree without Chase Claypool on the field.

WR – Josh Palmer – LA Chargers – $3,000

The Vikings’ secondary has been lit up like a prematurely-adorned Christmas tree this season. They even surrendered a big game to Cedrick Wilson of the Cowboys, who plays a lot like the Chargers’ rookie out of Tennessee. Palmer is a big play waiting to happen.

TE – OJ Howard – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $2,700

With Gronk still on the mend, I could very well spend the same amount on Cameron Brate. He’s boring, so I’ll go with the more athletic Howard. At least he might put up some PPR numbers before Brate vultures his touchdown.

FLEX – D’Ernest Johnson – Cleveland Browns – $4,700

CLEVELAND, OHIO – OCTOBER 31: Running back D’Ernest Johnson #30 of the Cleveland Browns runs for a gain during the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at FirstEnergy Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Steelers defeated the Browns 15-10. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

Everyone, including my Aunt Sally, will be playing D’Ernest this week. He’s going to have a great game behind this stellar offensive line. He’s the only healthy running back anyway. Go forth and eat thine chalk with broth.

DST – Minnesota Vikings – $2,300

Do I think this defense will slow the Chargers down? No. Do I think they will get a few sacks and maybe force a turnover or two to correlate value stacked with Cook? Yes. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

 

The Bad Guy

Ever since I was a little kid, I’ve always wanted to be the “Bad Guy” but was always cast in the good guy role. Big brother, team captain, teacher, team leader, etc… I’ve never been able to embrace my true heel role until Bo came along and we started Clashing our Beards and Bellies. Finally, I got to be the bad guy and it turns out that I am terrible at it. Maybe the grass isn’t greener on the other side and guys like Vic Mackey and Tony Soprano weren’t who I was supposed to be, even if I did embrace their “No fucks given” attitude, it’s just not me. I have to face reality, as much as I wish I was, I am not the bad guy. I’m not the good guy either. I’m just a guy who’s going to whoop Bo’s ass this week and then try to do it again next week. Let the Clash begin!!!

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,600

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 15: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates after a 98-yard touchdown run by Ronald Jones II #27 during their NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on November 15, 2020, in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to stomp the Washington Football Team come Sunday. The WFT ranks 32nd against quarterbacks, giving up 25 points per game, three more points than the 31st ranked team. The WFT also ranks 31st against wide receivers this year, great news for Tom Brady and Mike Evans. I am projecting them to be the optimal skinny stack this week, so obviously, Bo has them both on his team as well (eye-roll).

RB – Najee Harris – Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,900

CLEVELAND, OH – OCTOBER 31: Najee Harris #22 of the Pittsburgh Steelers carries the ball during the second half against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

The winless Detroit Lions are dreadful as a whole but are particularly terrible against running backs, ranking 31st and giving up 30 points per game.  Steelers’ rookie Najee Harris is licking his chops this week to face the Lions. He’s currently second in targets and receptions to only D’Andre Swift this season, with 52 for 40. I love Harris in Cash this week and apparently so does Bo (second eye roll).

RB – D’Ernest Johnson – Cleveland Browns – $4,700

D’Ernest Johnson is the best value on the DraftKings main slate this week with the rest of the Cleveland Browns running backs currently either on the COVID-19 list or the IR. Nick Chubb has been ruled OUT for Sunday so expect Johnson to get most of if not all the running back work in the Browns’ matchup against the New England Patriots. Apparently, Bo is aware of this as well (third eye roll).

WR – Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,900

TAMPA, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 10: Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers catches a touchdown pass against Byron Jones #24 of the Miami Dolphins during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium on October 10, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Mike Evans is my favorite wide receiver under 7K this week. PFF projects him to have a top 10 matchup advantage over the Washington Football Team’s cornerbacks. He should see tremendous volume with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski both out for this game. Guess who else likes Evans this week (fourth eye roll)?

WR – A.J. Brown  – Tennessee Titans – $7,800

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: A.J. Brown #11 of the Tennessee Titans celebrates the win at the end of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Bills 34-31. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

A.J. Brown and his 30% target share are what I am chasing in this matchup. The Saints rank 30th against wide receivers, giving up 42 points per game to pass catchers. I want 100% exposure to Brown this week! Especially since Bo doesn’t have him!!

WR –  Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos – $5,600

Courtland Sutton has been overshadowed by the return of Jerry Jeudy to the lineup and as a result, his price has dipped dangerously low. I decided the price was too good to pass up this week. I do not need him to set the world on fire, just score 15 points for me.

TE – Dan Arnold – Jacksonville Jaguars – $3,500

Dan Arnold has been targeted 30 times the past four games. That’s good for a tight end right? The Colts defense ranks 28th against tight ends and has given up 544 receiving yards and six touchdowns on the season. I’m actually shocked that Bo doesn’t have him on his team.

Flex – Tyler Johnson – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $3,300

TAMPA, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 10: Tyler Johnson #18 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is tackled by Jevon Holland #8 of the Miami Dolphins during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium on October 10, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Last week Tyler Johnson scored 11.5 DraftKings points and won me $200 with his late-game catch. This week Chris Godwin is banged up with a foot injury that relegated him to limited participation in practice all week. Tyler Johnson is not on Bo’s squad so I am expecting him to be the difference-maker in our matchup. It’s Tyler Time!!

DST – Tennessee Titans  – $2,600

The Tennessee Titans defense is facing a New Orleans offense that ranks 28th in yards per game with 314, and now will be missing Alvin Kamara. The Titans should be able to keep the Saints in front of them and not give up the big play. They are a perfect pay-down option with week.