Welcome to NFL Divisional Weekend! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
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High Priced – Quarterback
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $7,600
Josh Allen started the playoffs where he left off the regular season, as the DraftKings QB1. He scored 41.9 points last week, besting Patrick Mahomes by 0.8. This week the two top-scoring quarterbacks square off in Arrowhead Stadium for the second time this year. I like them both this week, but Allen has the better defense behind him and Mahomes has a history of first-half home struggles. Allen’s rushing upside is undeniable as he’s averaging 68 yards per game over his last six games. Allen’s ability to move the pocket cost the Chiefs in their first matchup, giving up a long touchdown to tight end Dawson Knox on a blown coverage. Allen passed for three scores and added another on the ground, scoring 39.5 points in their Week 5 matchup.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,600
Remember when everyone criticized the Bengals and Joe Burrow for drafting Ja’Marr Chase over Penei Sewell? We are laughing, oh my, funny times really. Joe Burrow was eclectic in 2021, throwing 36 touchdowns and for almost 5,000 yards (4,855) in his sophomore campaign. Ja’Marr Chase was the number one reason for his success, snatching 13 touchdowns and breaking Justin Jefferson’s 1,400 rookie receiving record in the process. Enough good things cannot be said about the football these two played this year together. shades of the 2019 LSU National Championship season come to life in the NFL. The Bengals and Burrow head into Tennessee this week as three-point road underdogs. The Titans’ defense is one of the best at stopping the run, bad news for Joe Mixon fans, but they are susceptible to the passing attack. The Titans secondary ranks 31st in the NFL this season, giving up 41 points per game to wide receivers. Practically speaking it looked like 20 touchdowns and over 3,200 receiving yards. I’m not sure why more people aren’t aware of this. Oh, well.
Value – Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams – $6,200
Matthew Stafford passed for 41 touchdowns in the regular season. Tom Brady only threw two more, for perspective. Stafford’s best DraftKings performance came in Week 3 against the Buccaneers defense when he passed for 343 yards and four touchdowns. I’m not expecting a repeat performance, but $6,200 is great value considering that Tom Brady is $600 more expensive and is missing a few of his weapons. With the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. and the return of running back Cam Akers, Stafford is loaded with offensive options this week. Stacking him with Cooper Kupp is always an option, the two combined for 96 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. I prefer the contrarian play of stacking him with the $5,300 OBJ and a $4,000 Tyler Higbee. My reasoning is, the Buccaneers will make adjustments to stop Kupp from running wild against them like he did in Week 3. Single coverage in single-high safety looks should be available to Stafford. If he connects, you win, big.
High Priced – Running Back
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans – $7,500
Derrick Henry is back, just named the starting running back for this week’s Divisional Round Playoff game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Henry returns to a Titans team that flourished in his absence playing smash-mouth football. Henry is the King of smash-mouth football, he should fit right in. Not surprisingly, Henry is the most expensive running back on the DraftKings main slate at $7,500. He’s still $1,100 cheaper than Cooper Kupp and $1,000 less than Davante Adams, making him a bit of a value if you are establishing the run and building your team around running backs this week instead of high-priced wide receivers. The Bengals ranked 21st against opposing running backs this year, having given up 2,181 total yards and 16 total touchdowns. Henry should be able to find the end-zone and the 100-yard bonus is definitely in play for this home playoff game.
Mid-Range – Running Back
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills – $5,900
The Buffalo Bills are the most explosive and dynamic offense in the playoffs due to Josh Allen’s ability to move the ball downfield. Devin Singletary has become the RB1 in Buffalo over the last month of the season. He’s rushed for over 404 yards and has scored eight touchdowns in the past five games. The Chiefs ranked 20th against running backs this season, giving up 23.70 fantasy points per game. I expect Singletary to get 20 touches in a game that should see plenty of high-value scoring opportunities given the 54 point total. At only $5,900, Singletary once again has the potential to be a top-three back this week at a discounted cost. I’m playing him in-game stacks with Josh Allen and also running him back in my Chief stacks.
Value – Running Back
Cam Akers, LA Rams – $5,500
Cam Akers returned last week to the LA Rams backfield after rupturing his Achilles in July of 2021. The return was remarkable before he set foot on the field, but it became legendary after seeing Akers form fully restored. He looked great, bursting through holes, making tacklers miss, and touching the ball 18 times. This week he’s priced at only $5,500 and could see an increased workload in this potentially high-scoring game against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
High Priced – Wide Receiver
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – $8,500
According to PFF, Davante Adams has the best wide receiver/cornerback matchup of this week’s Divisional Round. Adams has a decided size and speed advantage, 30lbs to be exact, over both San Francisco cornerbacks. Rookie Ambry Thomas, PFF’s 108th graded corner, with a score of 52.2 will be primarily tasked with stopping Adams. If Shanahan was smart, he will shadow cover Adams like Baltimore did earlier this season. But I don’t expect that to happen, and even if it does, Adams and Rodgers will find a way to beat it. The only things stopping Adams this week will be when the clock runs out. Adams is currently picking up only 23% rostership compared to 46% for Cooper Kupp. That’s the definition of leverage.
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills – $6,500
Stefon Diggs priced at $6,500 is almost as wild as Tyreek Hill priced at only $6,600. The major difference is that Buffalo has the top-rated defense against wide receivers and the Kansas City Chiefs rank 22nd, having given up 20 total touchdowns and over 2,600 receiving yards. The Bills on the other hand gave up 1,894 receiving yards and only six total touchdowns. Be happy other people are chasing the Tyreek Hill chalk and “Stefon Diggs” it to them, as he did to the New Orleans Saints a few years ago. If you are worried about Diggs’ lack of production last week against the New England Patriots, don’t be. He wasn’t needed. This week he will most definitely be needed. Look for Diggs to see 8-10 targets and score 18-20 points.
Value – Wide Receiver
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals – $5,700
Tee Higgins has one of the best size matchups this week against the Tennessee Titans. Jackrabbit Jenkins is 5’10” and Tee Higgins is 6’4” so that’s going to be a problem for the Titans on the outside and in the red zone. The good news for Higgins is that Ja’Marr Chase has been playing out of his mind this season, so he should see plenty of one-on-one matchups on the outside. Higgins has been the definition of “Boom or Bust” scoring 11 combined points the last two weeks, after scoring 46.4 in Week 16. Feast or famine, this week is trending towards feast and at only $5,700 it appears he’s an extra value meal.
Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo Bills – $3,500
Isaiah McKenzie is a bonus play this week! His $3,500 price tag makes him a perfect dart-throw in GPP contests if you want to spend up at wide receiver or tight end. Stacking him with Josh Allen or playing him as a run-back option in a Bills/Chiefs game-stack makes the most sense, but playing him as a one-off is also an option.
High Priced – Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,800
Rob Gronkowski has 26 targets, 19 receptions, 282 receiving yards, and one touchdown in his last three games. It’s clear that without Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, Tom Brady is leaning on Gronk and he is averaging 16 DraftKings points per game. In a blatant attempt to drive increased rostership, they priced him at only $5,800, all but ensuring he will be popular. I don’t mind eating the chalk on Gronk as long as he’s stacked with Brady, otherwise, I’m playing cheaper options.
Mid-Range – Tight End
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – $4,900
Dawson Knox’s signature game this season came in Week 5 against the Kansas City Chiefs, catching three passes for 117 yards and a now-infamous touchdown over Daniel Sorensen. The Chiefs’ defense did get better the second half of the season, but Sorensen didn’t and the matchup is still very much exploitable. Dawson Knox scored two touchdowns last week, btw, if that matters for anything. I’m grateful that DraftKings priced him up a whole $100 after he scored 25.9 points per game. Stacking him with Josh Allen is my favorite way to play Knox, but he’s not lineup dependent on Allen and can be played without him.
Value – Tight End
C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals – $3,400
C.J. Uzomah was a great GPP/Cash play last week, scoring a touchdown and racking up 18 points and only costing you $3,200. This week he’s only priced up $200, making him another high-value GPP play at only $3,400. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgin pushing the boundaries on the outside of the field, we’ve seen it create opportunities and open up the middle of the field for Uzomah. His speed and size make him a dangerous red-zone option for Joe Burrow as we saw last week against the Raiders. If you are paying down for tight end, he’s your guy.
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