Hey Siri, Play Invincible by TOOL
In a 21st century remix of Donny and Marie, I’m a little bit country and a little bit thrash metal. I’m feeling grizzled and battered from the DFS battlefield after this season like the warrior from TOOL’s amazing track, Invincible. With a heavy shield, I am struggling to remain consequential after losing three-consecutive Clashes to end the regular season.
But alas, I don’t really fear Scott’s ability to stack up with my strongest suit: small slates. I tried to convince him that we should break the playoff Clash into smaller daily and Showdown slates, but he was rightly suspicious and insisted on the full six games this weekend. No bother, I’ll dismantle him either way.
Bo’s Lineup
QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,400
Far too many people are crowning the 49ers as a potential Cinderella story after their comeback against the Rams to barely sneak into the playoffs. Although Dallas doesn’t match up too well with San Francisco on defense, they wield a tremendous advantage at quarterback and wide receiver against the 25th-best secondary in the NFL. Dak will be throwing to wide-open receivers all afternoon behind the league’s best offensive line. Big Dak Energy and huge passing numbers are incoming in a convincing Dallas win.
RB – Leonard Fournette – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900
Playoff Lenny is expected to be activated and unleashed at the perfect time. Philadelphia has absolutely no business in the postseason and will need to play perfect football to even cover the spread against Tampa Bay. Philly’s run defense is awful and they are even worse at covering running backs out of the backfield. Fournette will feast, even at 80% health.
RB – Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,800
The attention is deservedly going to Joe Burrow and the Cincy passing attack, but the Raiders are most worried about the guy who thrashed them earlier in the season. Mixon was a workhorse against Vegas, compiling over 120 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries. The Raiders defense is better suited to cover Jamarr Chase up, but they don’t have the big boys to keep Mixon from battering them.
WR – Jauan Jennings – San Franciso 49ers – $3,800
Jennings has been a very impressive riser this season for the Niners, beating out Brandon Aiyuk for targets in recent weeks. It might be due to Jimmy Garoppolo’s very poor ability to read defenses, but I like Jennings down under $4k to easily hit 3x value against a Dallas secondary that struggles to prevent yards after the catch.
WR – CeeDee Lamb– Dallas Cowboys – $6,200
The 49ers cannot cover CeeDee Lamb. He will draw coverage from the dried-up shell of Josh Norman and a bunch of second-string Nickel corners. The Cowboys double stack is my way of encapsulating the bulk of points scored in a high-total affair.
WR – Cedrick Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $4,400
Ced is producing more consistently than Amari Cooper these days (shocker) and more than tight end Dalton Schultz. His chemistry with Dak is obvious. I have Wilson as the best points-per-dollar play at any position on the entire slate. He is also my preferred stacking option with Dak if I go skinny.
TE – Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,300
Just as Matthew Berry poignantly tweeted earlier this week: Death, Taxes, and tight ends scoring against the Eagles. Gronk has been a target monster the last month. He has needed to be, with Godwin and Brown floating away in ashes. Brady and Gronk in the playoffs? Against the worst defense in the playoffs? Sign me up.
FLEX – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,100
A minor heel injury is shaping up to make Hill a nice little leverage play this weekend in GPPs. I just love that. He didn’t do much against Pittsburgh earlier in the season, but I just have a feeling that the Cheetah is on the verge of a Hiroshima-level explosion on Joe Haden and the Yinzers.
DST – Cincinnati Bengals – $3,000
Derek Carr has zero playoff wins in his career, so why is everyone seemingly predicting the Raiders to upset the hottest team in the NFL? I don’t get it. I believe this defense will force a bunch of Vegas turnovers and correlate perfectly with Mixon. Cincinnati will embarrass the Raiders on Saturday and send them back to Sin City with their mascara and eyeliner running.
Playoff Football!!
Last week I completed my regular season comeback, winning my third straight against Bo, and deadlocking our DraftKings H2h season series at nine wins apiece. I had never beaten Bo three times in a row, as a matter of fact, he beat me eight straight times last season. It was a dark time for the Nimble empire. I know Jeff Fischer isn’t proud of going 8-8, but your boy is thrilled to be .500 against a Cash game monster like Bo McBrayer.
Over the four remaining playoff rounds, we will be total our scores to see who has the most points at the end of Super Bowl Sunday. I’d say let the best man win, but we all know that would be Bo, so instead I will say let fortune favor the bold and may I all my deep balls be caught and all Bo’s dropped. Now excuse me while I spend my whole MLK weekend watching the NFL Super Wild Card games! If this isn’t heaven, I dont know what is.
Scott’s Lineup
QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,400
According to RunTheSims.com, Dak Prescott has the best point per dollar value for any quarterback on the DraftKings main slate. Dak’s weapons are also extremely reasonably priced, CeeDee Lamb at $6,200, Amari Cooper at $5,900, and my favorite stacking option, Cedric Wilson at only $4,400. Dalton Schultz is also a value at $5,000. Double stacking Dak makes the most sense given the 50.5 game total and Dallas ranking first in the NFL, averaging 31.2 points per game. The 27 points implied team total is tied for the second-most this week with Tom Brady and the Bucs. The San Francisco 49ers defense surrendered 29 total touchdowns to quarterbacks and ended the regular season ranked 23rd agaisnt wide receivers. This game should be the highest-scoring game on the slate and and I want in!
RB – Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,800
In three career games vs. the Raiders franchise, Joe Mixon has rushed 72 times for 338 yards and five touchdowns. In Week 11 this season, Mixon lit the Raiders up for 27.3 DraftKings points, rushing 30 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Mixon averaged 18.6 DraftKings points per game this season and is a great value at only $6,800. The Raiders finished the regular season ranked 30th against running backs, giving up over 2,200 total yards and 23 total touchdowns. The Bengals are currently six-point home favorites against the Raiders with a 26.5 implied team total. Time to establish the run.
RB – Leonard Fournette – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900
Leonard Fournette smashed the Philadelphia Eagles back in Week 6, turning 28 touches into two touchdowns and 30.7 DraftKings points. Fournette has been sidelined since the last month, recovering from a hamstring injury in Week 15 against New Orleans. Fournette has been practicing this week and looks to retain his starting running back role on Sunday. There are no indications that Fournette will be on a snap count, but don’t be surprised if folks are hesitant to pull him into their lineups. You know what they say, Fournette favors the bold.
WR – Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – $8,100
Deebo Samuel is the truth! The man is a just built different. His eight rushing touchdowns tie him with running backs Nick Chubb, Melvin Gordan, and James Robinson on the seaon. His six receiving touchdowns and 1,405 receiving yards help make him an NFL ALL-PRO. Hell, he even throw a touchdown pass this season. The Dallas Cowboys don’t have an answer for the skillset Deebo possesses. The 49ers will look to utilize Deebo in the red-zone as a rusher and as a field strecher to move the ball downfield. I’m all in this week!
WR – CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys – $6,200
CeeDee Lamb priced at only $6,200 is a steal this week. After being forgotten the last few weeks, Lamb should see plenty of volume against the San Francisco 49ers. Stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb is the play this week against a 49ers defense that relies heavily on zone coverage. Dwain McFarland from PFF tweeted that Lamb has a 22% target rate versus man coverage this season, with a staggering 32% target per routs run against single looks. CeeDee’s TD’!!
WR – Cedric Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $4,400
Cedric Wilson priced at only $4,400 is a glaring DraftKings oversight this week, but then all DraftKing players’ prices are trending low this week. Wilson has filled in nicely for an injured Michael Gallup, catching 11 of 12 passes for 154 yards, and three touchdowns in two games. He’s averaging 25.3 points in those two games and has been Dallas’s highest-scoring wide receiver the last two weeks. Shocker, Bo played him this week as well (eye roll).
TE – Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – $6,700
Travis Kelce quietly finished second in tight end scoring this season, averaging 17.2 points per game. He caught 92 of 134 targets for 1,125 yards and nine scores, good enough to finish as the WR9 ahead of Keenan Allen, Hunter Renfrow, and Mike Evans. Let Bo fade him this week, it will be his undoing.
Flex – Camerson Brate – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $2,900
Camero Brate is my flex because he’s the best available player with the most upside and also because he is leverage agaisnt a Gronk explosion. Brate has seen steady target volume the last five weeks, averaging 3.6 targets per game. Brady has connected with him four times for touchdowns this year. Here’s to hoping he scores his fifth this week against the Eagles.
DST – LA Rams – $2,700
The LA Rams defense is priced at $2,700. The disrespect. Arron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and company are currently the NFL’s top-rated defense according to PFF. Kyler Murray without his best weapon, DeAndre Hopkins, is still dangerous, making this a bit of a risky GPP like play agaisnt Bo. It’s the playoffs, go big or go home.
Nimble w/Numbers 