Welcome to the NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
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High Priced – Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – $7,300
Patrick Mahomes ($7,400) has been the best quarterback in the NFL against the AFC for the last two seasons. Over the course of four games against the Texans, Titans, Browns, and Bills, Mahomes has thrown for 1,195 yards, 14 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Now he faces a Pittsburgh team that he dismantled in Week 16, completing 23 of 30 passes for 258 yards, three touchdowns, and a 134.14 passer rating. Big Ben already came out and all but admitted the Chiefs are going to win this game, the only real question is will be Steelers be able to put enough points on the board to keep Mahomes throwing all game. If they do, Mahomes could break the slate this week.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys– $6,400
According to RunTheSims.com, Dak Prescott has the best point per dollar value for any quarterback on the DraftKings main slate. Dak’s weapons are also extremely reasonably priced, CeeDee Lamb at $6,200, Amari Cooper at $5,900, and my favorite stacking option, Cedric Wilson at only $4,400. Dalton Schultz is also a value at $5,000. Double stacking Dak makes the most sense given the 50.5 game total and Dallas ranking first in the NFL, averaging 31.2 points per game. The 27 points implied team total is tied for the second-most this week with Tom Brady and the Bucs. The San Francisco 49ers defense surrendered 29 total touchdowns to quarterbacks and ended the regular season ranked 23rd agaisnt wide receivers. This game should be the highest-scoring game on the slate and I want multiple players from this game in my GPP lineup.
Value – Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams – $6,300
Matthew Stafford and the LA Rams face the Arizona Cardinals for the third time this year Monday night at SoFi Stadium. Matthew Stafford has passed for 567 yards and five touchdowns in those two games. The Arizona Cardinals rank 29th against wide receivers this season, giving up 38 points per game. They led the league, but not in a good way, giving up 27 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers as well. It’s no secret that Cooper Kupp was the number one fantasy point producer in all of football in 2021. Playing Matthew Stafford means stacking him with Kupp this week. In week 14, Stafford and Kupp connected 13 times for 123 yards and a touchdown, good for 34.3 DraftKings points. Need I say more?
High Priced – Running Back
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,800
In three career games vs. the Raiders franchise, Joe Mixon has rushed 72 times for 338 yards and five touchdowns. In Week 11 this season, Mixon lit the Raiders up for 27.3 DraftKings points, rushing 30 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Mixon averaged 18.6 DraftKings points per game this season and is a great value at only $6,800. The Raiders finished the regular season ranked 30th against running backs, giving up over 2,200 total yards and 23 total touchdowns. The Bengals are currently six-point home favorites against the Raiders with a 26.5 implied team total. If you do not choose to run out a Burrow stack with either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, make sure you roster Joe Mixon in your build.
Mid-Range – Running Back
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900
Leonard Fournette smashed the Philadelphia Eagles back in Week 6, turning 28 touches into two touchdowns and 30.7 DraftKings points. Fournette has been sidelined since the last month, recovering from a hamstring injury in Week 15 against New Orleans. Fournette has been practicing this week and looks to retain his starting running back role on Sunday. There are no indications that Fournette will be on a snap count, but don’t be surprised if folks are hesitant to pull him into their lineups. You know what they say, Fournette favors the bold.
Value – Running Back
Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals – $5,000
BREAKING NEWS: James Conner has missed practice all week, has been labeled with the dreaded “game-time decision” by Kliff Kingsbury and is trending towards sitting out with an injured rib. Welcome back Chase Edmonds at only $5,000!! If Conner does miss the game, Edmonds becomes one of the best values at running back with week. RunTheSims.com projects Edmonds for the seconds most running back points if Conner were to miss the game. The Rams are stout against the pass but have been susceptible to running backs all season. In Week 4, Edmonds gashed the Rams for 120 yards on only 12 carries. For all you non-math majors, that’s 10 yards per carry, and it translated into 20.9 DraftKings points. That’s good, right?
High Priced – Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams – $9,000
Cooper Kupp’s 27.8 DraftKings points per game were the most of any player in 2021, quarterbacks included. Even more impressive, Kupp won the receiving triple crown, leading the league in receptions (145), yards (1,947), and touchdowns (16). At $9,000, Kupp is the highest-priced player on the DraftKings main slate by $900 this week, and rightly so. In two games agaisnt the Cardinals, he has seen 28 targets. Kupp’s 191 targets were 22 more than the next closest receiver, which happened to be Davante Adams. Adjust your ranks.
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – $6,200
CeeDee Lamb priced at only $6,200 is a steal this week. After being forgotten the last few weeks, Lamb should see plenty of volume against the San Francisco 49ers. Stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb is the play this week against a 49ers defense that relies heavily on zone coverage. Dwain McFarland from PFF tweeted that Lamb has a 22% target rate versus man coverage this season, with a staggering 32% target per routs run against single looks. CeeDee’s TD’!!
Value – Wide Receiver
Cedric Wilson, Dallas Cowboys – $4,400
Cedric Wilson priced at $4,400 seems like a mistake, but then all DraftKing players’ prices are trending low this week. Wilson has filled in nicely for an injured Michael Gallup, catching 11 of 12 passes for 154 yards, and three touchdowns in two games. He’s averaging 25.3 points in those two games and has been Dallas’s highest-scoring wide receiver the last two weeks. I’m double stacking Dak with Wilson and one other Dallas pass-catcher in all of my builds.
High Priced – Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,400
Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady have combined for career 104 passing/receiving touchdowns, 14 of those coming in the playoffs. With Tom Brady missing both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, Gronk has stepped up the last two weeks, catching 14 of 20 targets for 252 yards. Brady and Gronk can kill you with touchdowns or volume. If the touchdowns and the volume come, HOLY HELL its gonna be BIG BABY!!!
Mid-Range – Tight End
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders– $5,700
Good news, Darren Waller returned to the Las Vegas Raiders lineup last week and was immediately peppered with nine targets. Bad news, he turned those nine targets into two receptions for 22 yards and only 4.2 DraftKings points. Waller did play in Week 11 against the Bengals earlier in the season, and he performed well, catching seven of eight targets for 116 yards and 21.6 DraftKings points. Waller hasn’t been this cheap since the Trump administration, if he is fully healthy, watch out. Don’t kid yourself, Waller is a high-risk, high-reward play. But I, for one, am banking on him blowing up. The Bengals gave up over 1,000 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season. Just saying.
Value – Tight End
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals – $4,700
Over the last four weeks, Zach Ertz has emerged as Kyler Murray’s go-to guy, being targeted 43 times or 10.75 times per game. Ertz has scored double-digit DraftKings points in all four games. Murray and the Cardinals are currently four-point road underdogs, which could mean a negative game script and increased opportunity for Ertz in the passing game. I’m not opposed to stacking him with Murray, but will also be playing him as a one-off in smaller GPP contests.
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