Welcome to NFL Week 16! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
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High Priced – Quarterback
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $8,100
Last week I told you to pay up for Josh Allen and he scored 42 points and broke the main slate, outscoring all other quarterbacks by nine points. This week Allen is only being rostered in a projected 10% of DraftKings lineups. His price tag is expensive, good. According to RunTheSims.com, Allen has the highest ceiling for Week 15 quarterbacks, at 37.38 points. The Carolina Panthers might look good on paper, but in reality, they won’t be able to stop Allen or Stefon Diggs. Diggs will be my primarily stacking option, but I will also be double stacking him with Dawson Knox and sprinkling in some Gabriel Davis. Allen is in play for all GPP tournament formats, but I love him for the higher-stakes contests.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – $6,500
Dak Prescott let a lot of DraftKings DFS players down last week after scoring only 11.9 points and breaking the slate, in a bad way. This week Dak and the Cowboys face off against NFC East doormats, the New York Giants. Incredibly Dak’s only picking up 8% rostership as off Friday night (when I am writing this). I’m expecting that number to be close to 12% come kickoff, but he’s still a great value at only $6,500. The last time Dak played the Giants he threw for three touchdowns, 303 passing yards, and scored 25.7 DraftKings points. I’ll be primarily skinny stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb this week in mid-sized GPP contests.
Value – Quarterback
Tua Tagovialoa, Miami Dolphins – $5,700
The New York Jets are the worst team in the NFL. They give up over 30 points per game to opposing offenses and haven’t been able to stop anyone all season. Tua Tagovialoa registered a quarterback rating of 108 the last time he faced the Jets in 2021, scoring 18 DraftKings points in the process. This week he will be without his number one wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who was placed on the NFL’s COVID-19 list earlier this week. But DeVante Parker is back and Mike Gesicki is also (Teddy KBG voice) hanging around. We’ve seen the likes of Mack Hollins and Isaiah Ford step up and make big plays in the passing game the last few weeks and Myles Gaskin is off the NFL COVID-19 list. I’m not worried about Waddle’s absence and will be above the field based on Tua’s 11% projected rostership.
High Priced – Running Back
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals – $7,200
Joe Mixon has scored the 5th most DraftKings points by a running back this season and is averaging 18.8 points per game. For comparison, Najee Harris is the most expensive running back on the Week 15 DraftKings main slate, priced at $7,800, and is only averaging 0.4 points more per game than Mixon. Before Mixon’s last two performances of 10.4 and 8.8 points, he had been averaging 28.9 points per game in his previous four starts. To top it all off, Mixon is currently only projected for 5% rostership. Fingers crossed people have short memories and fade him in a tougher matchup against the Denver Broncos.
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Mid-Range – Running Back
Cordarrelle Patteron, Atlanta Falcons – $6,900
Cordarrelle Patterson has scored 10 touchdowns this season. It is seven more than the next closest player on the Falcons. The whole team only has 5 more touchdowns than Patterson, which is absurd. The San Francisco 49ers are going to crush the Falcons and Matty Ice, but not before Patterson gets his this week and scores between 18-20 DraftKings points. At this point in the season, it is what he does. I’m rolling Patterson out as a run-back option for my George Kittle stacks. Giddy-up.
Value – Running Back
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400
James Robinson is FREE!! Well, not really. He’s priced at $5,400 this week, but he is free from Urban Meyer, that franchise-ruining reprobate who hand single-handedly ruined 2020’s best fantasy football story when he thought career plodder Carlos Hyde was the answer. The word on the street is that Robinson should see his 2020 workload return this week against the Houston Texans, who rank 28th against running backs, giving up over 2,000 rushing/receiving yards and 17 total touchdowns. James Robinson has a really good chance of punching in a score this week. I’m playing him everywhere.
High Priced – Wide Receiver
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – $8,900
Davante Adams is the best wide receiver play on the DraftKings Week 15 main slate. I’m gutted that the LA Rams game got moved to Tuesday, meaning Cooper Kupp is no longer soaking up his rostership, leaving Adams exposed. Currently, he is projected for 15% rostership, the fifth-highest this week. My greatest fear has come true and apparently, people are onto him. Go figure. He’s only been averaging 11 targets per game the last five weeks, which might explain it. Despite his popularity, I’m rolling with Adams naked and in skinny stacks with Aaron Rodgers.
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – $5,800
Brandin Cooks is the 11th most targeted wide receiver in the NFL through 14 weeks with 109. All the other active receivers on the team have a total of 81. Cooks has been feast or famine lately, scoring 21.1 last week after only registering 8.4 points in Week 13. The last time Cooks faced off against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 he caught five of seven targets for 132 yards. I am expecting more of the same from Cooks this week. If he can find the end zone, he has the potential to score 25 points.
Value – Wide Receiver
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills – $3,700
After being replaced in the offseason by Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis has quietly scored over 11 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He also has two touchdowns in the last two games, along with 12 targets. This week Sanders is OUT meaning that Davis could see an increased role in the offense. RunTheSims.com projects Davis for just under a 20 point ceiling, exactly the type of cheap lotto ticket we are looking for at $3,700.
High Priced – Tight End
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $7,500
George Kittle is a tight end God! In the last two weeks, he has scored 79.8 points and is averaging 39.85 points per game. His 22 receptions, 331 yards receiving yards, and three touchdowns are the most by any player, period. This week Kittle and the San Francisco 49ers host his next victim, the Atlanta Falcons. Some of the sharpest minds in DFS said not to chase Kittle’s point last week. How did that turn out? I told you to play him, hope you are listening this week.
Mid-Range – Tight End
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins – $5,000
The Miami Dolphins roll into New York this weekend at less than full strength due to COVID-19. Jaylen Waddle and his team-high 115 targets are OUT. I expect Myles Gaskin to soak up a few of those targets, but Mike Gesicki should be the primary beneficiary in his absence. Gesicki is second on the team with 89 targets on the season. His seven targets per game over the last 9 weeks means that he should see plenty of volume in this matchup. The Jets give up 15 points per game to the tight end position per week, including 828 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. Gesicki is going to feast this week.
Value – Tight End
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers – $4,500
Pat Freiermuth has six touchdowns in his last seven games. He’s currently tied for 2nd amongst all tight ends with Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry who both have seven touchdowns. Freiermuth’s 5% projected rostership is music to my ears. I will be over the field this week for sure.
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