Welcome to NFL Week 11! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
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High Priced – Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – $7,200
Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are currently +2.5 road underdogs in their game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The 56.5 total means that Dak will be most likely chucking it on Sunday. Last week Dak scored over 26 points in a game that was over at halftime. Stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb ($7,600) and either Amari Cooper or Michael Gallup makes sense if you are looking to maximize your leverage in larger field GPP tournaments. Sal Verti currently has Lamb for under 7% rostership, which means that people are afraid to pay up for him.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders – $5,900
The Bengals vs. Raiders 50 team total is quietly the second-largest team total for Week 11. Both offenses are better than their defenses. The Bengals give up close to 37 fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Hunter Renfrow ($5,800) and Darren Waller ($6,100) both have favorable matchups and should be used heavily in this back and forth game script. Stacking Carr with either or both makes sense given their relatively low costs.
Value – Quarterback
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers – $5,100
Cam Newton is back in Carolina!! What a week to be back as the starter as the Panthers welcome back ex-head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington Football Team. The revenge narrative aside, Cam has a juicy matchup against a WFT defense that was already ranked 32nd in points against the quarterback and will be without you stars Chase Young and Montz Sweat this week. Cam’s rushing upside was on display last week when he rushed for one score and set up another. I love Cam at his $5,100 price tag and will be playing him naked or stacked with CMC for only $14,000.
High Priced – Running Back
Christian McCaffery, Carolina Panthers – $8,900
Speaking of Christian McCaffery, he’s back too!! Last week CMC scored 26.1 points without rushing for 100 yards or scoring a touchdown. Don’t overthink this one. Despite the low game total (43.5), I trust McCaffery in this matchup to score 25 points. With a ceiling closer to 37 points, I’ll pay up for CMC this week in small to mid-sized GPP field tournaments.
Mid-Range – Running Back
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers – $6,200
A.J. Dillon is my favorite play on the DraftKings Week 11 main slate. Aaron Jones is OUT for Week 11, which means “All Day Dillon” is about to be unleashed on the league. RunTheSims.com has Dillon projected for 23 points in his matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. He’s currently running an 18% optimal rate and the secret looks to be out. Dillon is currently projected to be rostered in close to 30% of builds. I’m fine eating the chalk, just make sure that you diversify elsewhere in larger GPP contests.
Value – Running Back
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears – $5,500
David Montgomery’s $5,500 price is ridiculously low this week. I for one love playing him as a one-off or using him as the run-back piece in the Lamar Jackson game stack. Montgomery saw 84% of the snaps in his return to action against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now David Montgomery is rested and has a 30% run blocking advantage according to PFF. The Ravens are giving up 25 fantasy points per game to running backs and rank in the bottom third in tackling. Montgomery is known for his ability to break tackles. It could be a long day for the Ravens and a good day for you if you roll with Monty.
High Priced – Wide Receiver
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – $8,400
According to PFF, Davante Adams has the second-best cornerback matchup for Week 11. Great news for Aaron Rodgers and for everyone who pays $8,400 for Adams. One of my favorite ways to roll Adams out is in a game stack with A.J. Dillon and Dalvin Cook as the run-back. In this build, I am banking on the Packers’ offense being concentrated on Adams and Dillon, Rodgers’s two best players. Running it back with Dalvin makes the most sense given the game script and leverage it gives you over the field.
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – $6,000
Brandin Cooks has games of 11,13, 14, and 14 targets this season. Tyrod Taylor should be targeting him early and often this week against a Tennessee Titans secondary that ranks 32nd against wide receivers, giving up over 46 points per game. The Texans should be trailing in their matchup against the Titans and Cooks should see 8-10 targets as they scramble to keep up. I’m comfortable loading Cooks into all my GPP builds, no matter the tournament or field.
Value – Wide Receiver
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys – $4,200
Last week Michael Gallup returned and saw more targets than an ailing Amari Cooper, scoring 7.2 points. This week he is still priced down in the 4K range making him a great value dart throw in GPP tournaments. I will be primarily stacking him with Dak Prescott in Cowboy/Chief games stacks as the second wide receiver option. I’m comfortable playing Gallup as a one-off at his $4,200 price as well.
High Priced – Tight End
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $6,300
It’s so great to have George Kittle back!! In the last two weeks, he’s scored 24 and 16 points respectively. He’s seen 15 targets, amassed 151 receiving yards, and has scored twice. This week Kittle is facing a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that hasn’t been terrible against tight ends, but they haven’t faced any as good as Kittle either. PFF has Kittle with a 32% advantage over Jags’ linebacker Damien Wilson. I expect Jimmy G. to continue to target Kittle, particularly in the red zone. I’m comfortable paying up for Kittle and at under 6% projected rostership, he’s leverage over Kelce and Waller.
Mid-Range – Tight End
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – $4,000
Dawson Knox returned to action last week after missing a few games recovering from a broken hand. He caught his only target for 17 yards. This week, he’s priced down $500. Take the discount and play Knox this week. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley missed practice this week nursing their own injuries. The Indianapolis Colts rank 27th against tight ends, giving up over 16 points per game. Knox is picking up less than 1.2% rostership, you know what to do. Smash.
Value – Tight End
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears – $3,400
Don’t look now, but Justin Fields might have a new favorite target and it’s Cole Kmet. The last time they took the field together in Week 9, Kmet was splashing against a formidable Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense for six receptions and 87 yards. The Baltimore Ravens print money to the tight end position, giving up over 17 points per game. I love Kmet as a punt tight end this week in larger GPP field tournaments.
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