Welcome to NFL Week 16! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
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High Priced – Quarterback
Justin Herbert, LA Chargers – $7,200
According to RunTheSims.com, Justin Herbert has one of the highest ceilings of all the Week 16 quarterbacks. Over his last four weeks, Herbert is averaging over 28 points per game. This week he faces a Texans defense that down a significant number of defensive starters due to a COVID-19 outbreak. I love pairing Herbery up with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in this matchup. Stacking both players allows you to leverage the field a bit. If you are looking to differentiate, currently Josh Palmer is only projected for 1% rostership, making him the best leverage play in this game given Jalen Guyton’s absence due to being placed on the NFL’s COVID-19 list. The Chargers and Herbert should have no problem finding the end-zone this week against the hapless Texans.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals – $5,900
The last time Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals played the Ravens, Burrow passed for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. Rookie sensation, Ja’Marr Chase, turned 10 targets into eight receptions for 201 yards and a score. Tee Higgins saw 15 targets that game, as Burrow exploited a weak Ravens’ secondary all day long. Fast forward to Week 16 and not much has changed for the Ravens. They just got torched by Aaron Rodgers for 268 yards passing and three scores. I love Burrow’s $5,900 price tag in this matchup. Apparently, I am the only one, because Burrow is currently only projected for a 3% rostership this week. I will be stacking Burrow with both of his top wide receivers, C.J. Uzomah is also in play after exploding for 91 yards and two scores in Week 8.
Value – Quarterback
Tim Boyle, Detroit Lions – $4,000
I personally wasn’t aware that quarterbacks could be priced as low as $4,000. You learn something new every day. One thing that I learned a while back is that the Atlanta Falcons are not good at defense. Particularly speaking, the Falcons rank 31st against quarterbacks, giving up 20 points per game to single callers. Boyle isn’t going to score 30 points, but he could score 20 and at only 4K, he’s worth a roll of the dice. The salary relief should open up your build and enable you to surround Boyle with higher-priced studs. Don’t be afraid to play Boyle in larger GPP contests.
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High Priced – Running Back
Cordarrelle Patteron, Atlanta Falcons – $6,700
Cordarrelle Patterson is the man. This season he has been the Atlanta Falcons offense, averaging over 17 DraftKings points per game. He’s scored double-digit points in 10 of 13 appearances. This week Patterson faces a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 29th against running backs, having given up over 2,00 total yards and 22 touchdowns. Patterson should be unleashed in this matchup, free to score willy nilly all over the Lions. He’s one of my favorite running back plays in high-stakes GPP contests.
Mid-Range – Running Back
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,900
James Robinson is back!! Last week he saw 24 opportunities, rushing for 75 yards and a score, picking up 17.8 DraftKings points along the way. This week Robinson faces the New York Jets defense that ranks 32nd to running backs this season. Their futility is remarkable. They have surrendered over 2,500 rushing and passing yards combined and 25 total touchdowns. Robinson is currently projected around 10% rostership, making him a great play in all GPP formats this week.
Value – Running Back
Justin Jackson, LA Chargers – $4,200
Austin Ekeler is currently on the NFL COVID-19 list, and it looks like he will ultimately miss Week 16 as a result. Last week, Justin Jackson carried the ball 13 times for 86 yards, which averaged out to 6.6 yards per carry. Jackson is expected to see the majority of touches in the Chargers backfield. It’s anyone’s guess how goal-line work will be split, but Jackson should be in the mix. Jackson’s role is less defined makes him a value upside-side play at only $4,200. His 11% projected rostership is a bit high, so make sure that the rest of your lineup isn’t too chalky.
High Priced – Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams – $9,100
Cooper Kupp leads all NFL wide receivers in targets (164), receptions (122), receiving yards (1,625), and touchdowns (14). Kupp has scored over 30 DraftKings points in six games this year. He’s the best wide receiver play each and every week. Don’t overthink this one. Kupp is a Gronk smash into your lineup this week.
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders – $6,800
“Third and Renfrow” might be the best wide receiver nickname in the NFL. Hunter Renfrow has lived up to the billing, turning his 38 targets over the last four weeks into 21.4 DraftKings points per game. Renfrow has over 100 yards receiving and at least nine targets in three of the last four weeks. Darren Waller is expected to miss Week 16, paving the way for Renfrow to see double-digit targets in a home underdog role against the Denver Broncos. Renfrow is live in mid-sized single-entry GPP tournaments.
Value – Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $4,900
I’m shocked that Antonio Brown is currently only projected for 15% DraftKings rostership for Week 16. With Chris Godwin shelved and Mike Evans looking like he will miss the matchup with the Carolina Panthers, Antonio “Fake COVID-19 Card” Brown looks to be the beneficiary. According to all practice reports, Brown has looked great this week after returning from an ankle injury. I’m expecting Brown to see 8-10 targets this week and serve as Tom Brady’s security blanket. I’m comfortable rolling Brown out in all contest formats. His $4,900 price tag makes him one of the most versatile plays on the Week 16 slate.
High Priced – Tight End
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $7,000
Mark Andrews is the TE1 this year in DraftKings scoring, averaging 18.2 points per game. Andrews leads all NFL tight ends with 122 targets, 85 receptions, and eight touchdowns. He’s averaging 10.6 targets per game over his last five games and is the Ravens’ number one receiving threat whether Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley is under center. His 11% rostership is reasonable given his 30 plus point upside this week. Andrews is worth running out naked or pairing with Huntley if he gets the start in place of Lamar.
Mid-Range – Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,200
Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady have combined for 90 passing touchdowns in their careers. Brady is without Chris Godwin and will most likely be without Mike Evan as well. This week Gronk is priced up $200, despite only scoring 4.9 points last week. Currently, he’s the highest rostered tight end on the DraftKings main slate, picking up 14% projected rostership. It makes sense given the Buccaneers’ wide receiver injuries. I am not really worried about the chalk on Gronk, he’s the best tight end option that isn’t named Mark Andrews.
Value – Tight End
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears– $3,300
Cole Kmet has 32 targets, 20 receptions, and close to 200 yards receiving in his last four games. Eight targets for $3,300 is practically stealing. The Seattle Seahawks rank 27th against the tight end, having given up 801 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. Kmet hasn’t found the end-zone yet this year, but I’m banking on him to slump bust it big and score over 14 DraftKings points.
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