By Scott Simpson
Welcome to NFL Week 7! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
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High Priced – Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – $8,400
For once Patrick Mahomes isn’t the highest priced quarterback on the DraftKings Main Slate for Week 7. He’s $100 less than Kyler Murray. According to RuntheSims.com, he has a higher “Boom” rate compared to Murray though, 58% to 45.4%. The Tennessee Titans are 29th against the quarterback position and 32nd against wide receivers, giving up over 50 points per game. This matchup has the highest total of the week at 57.5. The experts all agree that this game has shootout potential. With the Chiefs catching 31.5 implied points, Mahomes is expected to have a big day, racking up the points on a weak Tennessee defense.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams – $7,100
The Matthew Stafford revenge game narrative is very real this week as Stafford and the 5-1 LA Rams host the god-awful 0-6 Detroit Lions. Stafford is at the peak of his fantasy powers, already passing for 16 touchdowns and over 1,300 yards this season. There’s a very real chance that Stafford throws for 400 yards and 4 scores in this matchup. This isn’t the game to fade him, I’m going all in!
Value – Quarterback
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – $5,700
According to RunTheSims.com, Matt Ryan is of the best point per dollar quarterbacks on the DraftKings Week 7 slate. Ryan is coming off of back-to-back 24+ point performances. Calvin Ridley is back this week and priced down at $6,600. Ryan and Ridley are one of the best cheap stacks to target. The Dolphin defense sucks. All the stars are aligning for a blowup game from Ryan and company.
High Priced – Running Back
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans – $9,200
Derrick Henry is not human. He’s averaging 30.8 DraftKings points per game. I am shocked he’s not priced up to $9,500 this week. Thank god for another Monday night blowup after the DraftKings’ prices are already set in proverbial stone. This will be the cheapest we will get to play Henry for a while. Buy the dip and roll tide!!
Mid-Range – Running Back
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers – $6,100
Chuba Hubbard has performed well in the CMC light role the last two weeks, totaling 46 touches and close to 200 yards. This week Hubbard faces a New York Giants team that gives up close to 30 points to running backs per game and last week were lit up for 24.7 points by Darrell Henderson. Hubbard should see close to 20 touches in this game, which means he has a great chance to score 20+ points.
Value – Running Back
J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team – $5,000
J.D. McKissic is the clear PPR back in Washington. He’s averaging 10.8 points per game to Antonio Gibson’s 13.6. Gibson missed practice on Wednesday and if he misses time, look for the Team to lean on McKissic, which in all likelihood will be a negative game script against Aaron “I still Own You” Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Last week he saw 10 targets and projects to see at least 7 in this matchup.
High Priced – Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams – $8,400
According to OccupyFantasy.com, Cooper Kupp has top 5 wide receiver upside this week against the Detroit Lions. According to PFF, Kupp has the best matchup out of all wide receivers in Week 7. Given the aforementioned revenge narrative, I love Kupp this week in all GPP formats.
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons – $6,600
Calvin Ridley is back this week after missing Week 5 in London. The Miami Dolphins and their once-vaunted secondary, are currently in shambles giving up over 44 points per game to wide receivers. The emergence of Kyle Pitts comes at a perfect time, as Ridley is only priced $700 more than the rookie. PFF is high on Ridley this week as well, projecting him a top 10 matchup advantage.
Value – Wide Receiver
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Baltimore Ravens – $5,800
Hollywood Brown has been streaky this year, scoring under 10 twice and over 24 twice. This week Brown faces a secondary that he owned last season, averaging 20 points per game in the two matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals. Priced-down at $5,800, makes him a great value play this week.
High Priced – Tight End
Mark Andrews, Baltimore – $6,000
Mark Andrews is on fire this season! Currently, he is the second-highest scoring tight end in the NFL, one point per game behind Travis Kelce. Andrews is $1,600 cheaper despite his 18.1 points per game average. I’ll take the discount and ride with Andrews against a Bengals team that he played well against last season, catching 10 of 16 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Mid-Range – Tight End
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles – $4,600
Dallas Goedert is the only tight-end game in town now. His price is criminally low given Jalen Hurts propensity to target his tight ends, 50 times so far through six games. Now Goedert has all those targets to himself. He’s a smash play if you are looking for mid-range tight end value.
Value – Tight End
Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team – $3,900
Last week Ricky Seals-Jones converted six targets into 58 yards and a score. This week he faces the Green Bay Packers, who have given up 300 yards receiving and three touchdowns to tight ends so far this season. Seals-Jones is an important part of the Washington Football Teams plan for picking up first downs and working the middle of the field. His price is still too low and I expect at least 12 points from him against the Packers.