Happy 4th anniversary to the WR2 Theory!!
Over the last three years, I have utilized the WR2 Theory drafting strategy to win multiple fantasy football leagues and most importantly, thousands of dollars in prize money. In 2022 alone, I won 3 of 5 PPR leagues I played in and close to 2K.
Last season, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Tyler Lockett, and Brandon Aiyuk were all drafted as the WR2 on their team. Each projected outside the top 20 and finished as the overall WR8, WR9, WR13, and WR15, respectively. Time to adjust the ranks on how we think about drafting wide receivers.
Historically there has sooo much wide receiver value hiding in plain sight in your fantasy drafts. If you know what you are looking for though, you can make the strategic picks to evaluate your fantasy squad above your league mates and bring home the fantasy championship.
Below I break down the history of WR2 Theory, explain the process (trust it) that I use to evaluate potential WR2s each season, and then state my case for the WR2 Theory class of 2023.
WR2 Theory Origin Story
Everyone loves a good origin story. If you don’t, just scroll past to get to the analytics.
Three years ago WR2 Theory was officially launched into the fantasy football ether. If you missed the origin story, WR2 Theory’s roots can be traced to a brief-but-meaningful Twitter exchange with JJ Zachariason in February 2020. JJ posted a tweet asking for questions for his Late-Round Podcast mailbag. All the stars aligned as I stumbled upon it and posted a question that I had been mulling over the last few seasons. Simply put, I wanted to know how accurately we (as the fantasy community) were at successfully predicting which wide receiver finished the season as the WR1 on their own team. I was sure that this question had already been answered by fantasy football analysts and if JJ could just kindly push me in the right direction, I could get that info and get on with winning all my leagues….in February….don’t judge me.
After talking to JJ, it quickly became apparent that the easy answers I was seeking were not readily available to be effortlessly plucked from the fantasy football tree of knowledge. If my question was going to be answered, I was gonna need to take the fantasy stats into my own hands. I started immediately and haven’t looked back!!!
My Process
I began by pouring over the last eight seasons of WR ADP data and then compared it to the end-of-the-season wide receiver rankings. Next, I filtered that data through the vacated targets tool to see if there was a correlation between breakout WRs and vacated targets.
Afterward, I studied the team-specific factors and circumstances to identify and document the conditions that led to the shift in the WR value for each team. Finally, I created the “criteria for success” that incorporated all of the key data points and then used them to determine WR2 breakout candidates for 2023.
As I dug further into the data, I started to see a pattern emerge. Each year there are wide receivers that are routinely undervalued and outperform their ADP. In 2021, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, Darnell Mooney, and Christian Kirk, were all drafted as the WR2 on their respective teams and finished as the WR1.
Again in 2022, Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk, Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson all were drafted as the respective WR2s on their teams and you already know how this ends, they finished as the WR1 on their teams.
You don’t have to be Nimble with Numbers to see the discrepancy between consensus wide receiver ADP and true wide receiver value. The question then becomes, how do we identify the next WR2 to become a WR1 or the WR3 who will greatly outperform their ADP?
WR2 Theory Criteria for Success
Every evaluation/prediction process needs criteria for success. Here is mine:
Vacated Targets: Targets that are available in an offense.
High Volume Passing Offenses: Offenses that consistently/historically see an increased percentage of passing volume when compared to the league average.
Emerging Talent/Rookies: The infusion of talented younger players into offensive schemes.
Injuries: Increased workload due to injury to a teammate.
Vacated Targets
One important tool that I used to help me identify potential WRs who fit into the WR2 Theory was the 2021 vacated target data. Here is the list of 2023 vacated targets brought to you by John Daigle from 4for4 (@notJDaigle on Twitter).
I updated it with color graphics and made it sortable and accessible here. My colleagues in the fantasy football community don’t believe vacated targets exist and yet here we are talking about them and now you are thinking about them, so…
A Passing League
It is undeniable that the NFL has become a passing league. Last year a RECORD eight teams featured at least two wide receivers who finished in the fantasy top 36. Explosive Offenses: Over the last eight years the following teams supported two top-36 WRs.
Emerging Talent/Rookies
The common-sense wisdom in redraft leagues has always been to wait on rookie wide receivers, who typically are unreliable and break out later on in year two or three. In 2020, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Chase Claypool turned that thinking on its head, with Jefferson finishing as a WR1 and Lamb and Claypool as WR2s. In 2021, Ja’Marr Chase scored over 300 fantasy points and Jaylen Waddle finished as the WR13, scoring 245 points.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonta Smith all elevated their game heading into their sophomore seasons. All three were being drafted outside the top 25 and all finished as top 10 wide receivers in 2022.
The 2021 & 2022 NFL wide receiver classes were stacked with talent and they did not disappoint. Here is the list of rookie and second-year WRs who finished in the top-36 in 2022 (bold indicates 2022 rookie).
2023 WR2 Candidates
This year WR2 Theory candidates are broken up into four tiers based on their potential fantasy ceilings. I’m prioritizing Tier 1 and 2 WRs in my drafts. Tier 3 and 4 are later round depth and bye-week support.
Tier 1 – Top 12 WR – WR1 Potential – Studs to Building Your Team Around
Tier 2 – Top 24 WR – WR2 Potential – Solid Weekly Starters
Tier 3 – Top 36 WR – WR3 Potential – Weekly Flex Options
Tier 4 – Top 48 WR – WR4 Potential – Bye Week and Injury Depth
Here are my 2023 WR2 Theory break-out candidates identified by round. All 2023 ADP rankings come directly from 4for4’s ADP tool and are based on a 12-Team PPR league.
Tier 1 – Rounds 2–5 – STUDS
Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins – WR11
Jaylen Waddle well outperformed his WR19 ADP last year, finishing as the WR8 in PPR formats. The acquisition of wide receiver Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs last offseason was a game change for Waddle. His yards per reception nearly doubled from 9.8 to 18.1. The Mayor of Miami approves!
Despite losing 24 targets and close to 30 receptions, Waddle added 345 receiving yards and two touchdowns compared to his rookie season. Waddle is currently being drafted at the end of the second round/beginning of the third round with other wide receivers Devonta Smith, Chris Olave, and DK Metcalf.
Out of this group, Smith is the only wide receiver I am targeting before Waddle. Olave has to worry about a resurgent Michael Thomas slanting over his shoulder and can you really trust DK Metcalf after he literally pooped himself last season and only averaged 13.8 FPG?
The floor is safe for Waddle and the ceiling is anything but safe in this explosive Dolphins offense. Waddle scored 15 or more fantasy points eight times last year, including both a 30-point and a 40-point outburst. His running mate Hill scored 22 or more points eight times last year. There will be points, and potentially blood…
The only issue I have with Waddle whatsoever is the health and durability of Tua. The 2022 splits with Tua and without Tua favored Tyreek Hill, like you would expect. In this scenario, Waddle becomes more of a weekly WR2 or WR3. Fingers crossed Tua’s electric left arm returns for the 2023 season and we see more Waddle dances in the endzone.
DeVonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles – WR12
Simply put, DeVonta Smith is my Matthew Berry “Ride or Die” and my personal favorite WR2 Theory Candidate for the upcoming 2023 season. Shout out to the GOAT, TMR, for the quote tweet and for believing in Smith this season.
My reasoning for loving Smith is simple. In the last 10 games of the 2022 season, grown-ass man A.J. Brown averaged 16.5 FPG and Smith averaged 17.6 FPG. I know right. They tried to slip one by us there. Tricky. Tricky.
Smith is the perfect WR2 Theory fit given the Eagles’ high-scoring offense and their propensity to successfully move the ball down the field and to end drives with touchdowns. The Eagles’ 59 touchdowns were second to only the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs’ 61 in 2022.
Smith’s second-season glow-up was noticeable. He added 30 receptions, 300 receiving yards, and two touchdowns to his rookie totals. Now the Slim Reaper is poised to take the next step and elevate his game to weekly WR1 potential.
Howard Bender agreed with me at the Fantasy Football Expo panel discussion, picking Smith as the most likely WR2 candidate to finish the 2023 season as the WR1 on their team. Let it be written, let it be done. Howard is my guy! I also wanted to point out for the record that at the FF Expo panel discussion, Jeff Ratcliffe gave us all “ZERO GUYS.” LOL
Tee Higgins – Cinncinati Bengals – WR13
Tee Higgins disappointed fantasy drafters last season, failing to live up to his WR13 ADP, finishing as the WR19 averaging 13.8 FPG. In the last three seasons, he has seen 108, 110, and 109 targets. Two straight years of 74 receptions and just under 1,100 yards. Despite similar numbers from 2021, Higgins’s FPG dropped from 15.6 in 2021 to 13.8 last year.
Higgins was consistent for the most part last season though, scoring 10 or more points in 12 of 16 games played. He also scored 19 or more points five times. There were two games he posted zero points, which left fantasy managers on MEGA TILT! I should know, I drafted Higgins on three of my league-winning squads. LOL
Higgins enters the 2023 season on the last year of his rookie deal and is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the league year. Expect Higgins to be showing out this season as he chases a new long-term contract. The Joe Burrow calf injury should further depress Higgins ADP heading into your fantasy drafts.
I expect Higgins to rebound and average closer to 15 than the 13 points he averaged last year. Higgins is due for some positive touchdown regression as well after posting seasons with six, six, and seven. Ja’Marr Chase has 22 touchdowns in the last two seasons, compared to only 13 for Higgins. That trend should balance out this season.
I’m targeting Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith over Tee Higgins in Tier 1. If I can draft two of three from this group, I will be extremely confident in my weekly wide receiver floor and ecstatic about their potential weekly ceiling.
Tier 2 – Rounds 6–8 – STARTERS
Christian Kirk – Jacksonville Jaguars – WR27
Last year Christian Kirk was the WR13. He was being drafted as the WR40. I’ll give you a second to process that. Fast forward to 2023 and the Jaguars’ offseason signing of Calvin Ridley has pushed Kirk back down the ADP charts to WR27.
Ridley is being drafted as the WR16 this season. Which seems high to me, and most others in the fantasy industry as well. But the people want what the people want, so they give it to themselves. LOL
Ridley being given the WR1 crown by drafters is not totally surprising given his previous fantasy football performances as an Atlanta Falcon, but being drafted three rounds in front of Kirk does not make any sense. Kirk’s 494 slot snaps were 3rd most of any wide receiver last season. The previous time Ridley suited up in 2021, he ranked 149th in slot snaps.
Kirk might see a slight target share dip, but he ran 518 routes last year, the 19th most in the NFL. He won’t be losing any significant slot routes to Ridley this season. If anything, Ridley’s presence on the outside might provide Kirk with more space to make plays underneath. Kirk might be the safest most reliable WR2 Theory candidate I put forth this season.
Christian Kirk at the beginning of the 7th round isn’t a sexy pick that will leave you all High-T’d up, ready to run through a wedge block. But, he will be a tremendous value finishing in the WR2/3 range each week. I have him projected to finish as the WR22, which means you are stealing points if you draft him in the WR27 range.
Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers – WR28
Last year Brandon Aiyuk was drafted around the 90th pick in PPR drafts compared to Deebo Samuel, who was picked 19th overall. The 71-pick gap turned out to be a landmine for fantasy drafters. Aiyuk, went on to lead the San Francisco 49ers in fantasy points for wide receivers, out-sourcing Deebo by 60 points.
This is a perfect example of the fantasy community overvaluing the WR1 from the previous season, and undervaluing the WR2. These ADP gaps create loads of opportunities for drafters willing to wait on value instead of reaching for a player’s ceiling. Shocker. It’s happening again this year.
Deebo is being drafted as the WR17 and Aiyuk as the WR28. The 30-40 pick gap between them this year is a head-scratcher. I love Deebo, but that ADP gap is approaching Michael Strahan levels here.
Before the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffery, Deebo was averaging 15.2 FPG. After the CMC trade, he averaged 11 FPG, compared to Aiyuk who averaged 12.6 FPG before the trade and 15.2 FPG after. Oh, how the tables have turned.
No surprise the fantasy football masses still are behind the trend on Aiyuk. In the last six years, the WR28 has scored 190.4 fantasy points on average. Aiyuk scored 227.8 fantasy points.
Even if he has a down year and scores 25 fewer points, the floor is rock solid. The ceiling though is WR15, which he achieved last season. If you pass on Aiyuk’s late 6th-round value, you might be allergic to winning your fantasy league.
Tyler Lockett – Seattle Seahawks – WR30
The fantasy football Community has Tyler Lockett Amnesia every single year. It’s quite remarkable really. Last season he was drafted as the WR45 and DK Metcalf was drafted as the WR20. That is 60 full picks before Lockett (that’s 5 full rounds later for all you English majors). Lockett went on to outscore Metcalf and finished 2022 as the WR13.
Fast forward to 2023 and Metcalf is being drafted as the WR15 and Lockett as the WR30. Half the size for half the price. Tyler Lockett might be 30 years old, but he hasn’t actually taken a hit since the Obama administration and looked “ELITE” last year dusting cornerbacks for long touchdowns repeatedly.
The addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the mix has scared drafters off of Lockett, but not Metcalf. Interesting. Realistically, Metcalf has the most to lose, as he led the Seahawks in targets with 141 to Lockett’s 117 last year. Lockett was more efficient with less, converting 71.8% of his targets to only 63.8% for Metcalf. Lockett also led the team in receiving touchdowns, yards per reception, and yards per target.
During a recent draft I participated in at the Fantasy Football Expo, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was drafted at the end of the 6th round and Lockett fell to the last pick in the 7th. I would not be surprised at all if Lockett falls in home league drafts again this year, making him one of the most dependable WR2 Theory candidates in the mid-rounds.
George Pickens – Pittsburgh Steelers – WR33
Last season Steelers wide receiver Diontea Johnson had 63 more targets than George Pickens and only outscored him by 15 fantasy points. Think about that for a second and try to not let your head explode. If you’re still with me, and your head hasn’t exploded, think about it again.
If your head still hasn’t exploded, think about the fact that George Pickens is still being drafted behind Diontae Johnson right now, this very second. If your head still hasn’t exploded, think about one of his sensational one-handed catches from one of those preseason Twitter videos. if your head still hasn’t exploded think about Kenny Pickett, The Immortal God rising from the Phoenix of the ashes of last season to be QB1… Okay I’ve gone too far, but you get it.
Sure, Diontae Johnson will catch a touchdown this year, but George Pickens will catch more touchdowns this year. He should also see more targets this year and Ryan Clark said he was more talented than Justin Jefferson so…. George Pickens! George Pickens! George Pickens! George Pickens!
I can’t say it enough. George Pickens over Diontae Johnson!
I will draft him all day long
I will draft him in a thong
I will draft him it’s never wrong
I will draft him while I sing this song
hitting my bong
Flexing my internet muscles
Feeling so strong
It’s been George Pickens all along!
Jahan Dotson – Washington Commanders – WR36
Jahan Dotson burst onto the NFL scene last season scoring four touchdowns in his first three games. An injury sidelined him for six games last season, derailing his hot start to the season. He finished the season strong, averaging 14.7 FPG over his final five games, finding the endzone three more times.
The WR1 for the Washington Commanders, “Scary” Terry McLaurin averaged 13.5 FPG and only scored five touchdowns in 17 games. Dotson’s scored seven touchdowns in 12 games. Both interesting and curious. McLaurin only averaged 2.4 more points per game despite seeing 120 targets to only 61 for Dotoson.
Currently, Dotson is being drafted three-to-four rounds later than McLaurin. I will not be surprised if next year we are not drafting them one-to-two rounds apart instead. Dotson is poised to explode into his second season and the fantasy drafters are ready.
His ADP is high, but the talent and opportunity warrant it. Sam Howell excelled at slinging the deep ball in college, which matches perfectly with Dotson’s 4.43 speed. His 16 deep targets ranked 32nd last season. Terry McLaurin’s 30 deep targets ranked 4th. I expect that gap to shrink this season, which means increased opportunities for Dotson.
Dotson has the skill set to separate from defenders and cash in for your fantasy team. According to the WR guru himself, Matt Harmon at Reception Perception, Dotson’s had a 70% or better success rate on every route except two last season. Dotson is a GRONK smash pick this year.
Tier 3 – Rounds 8-10 – FLEX
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks – WR37
Fantasy writer and analyst for Fantasy Pros, Bo McBrayer, AKA the King of Spice Bo_McBigTime on Twitter, is all in on Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2023. During his appearance on the NimblewNumbers WR2 Theory podcast, Bo said, “JSN is going to be open all over the field. He is going to win the middle of the field. All the things that Amon Ra does great, JSN does them better.”
High praise for the wide receiver currently being drafted as the WR3 on the Seattle Seahawks. I agree with Bo though. Pete Carroll knows what he is doing with his offense. Bringing in one of the best college wide receivers to support the fantasy surprise of 2022, Geno Smith sounds too good to be true. It isn’t.
Smith finished the 2022 season as the QB5, throwing for 30 touchdowns and over 4,200 passing yards. Adding JSN, only makes him more dangeRuss. I don’t expect JSN to be peppered with targets like Lockett and DK, but his targets should be high-value and directed downfield where he will be able to create space after the catch.
Currently, JSN is being drafted near his ceiling as WR37. Remember though, ADP is a lie. If you are in a draft with Bo, you have no shot at JSN, but thankfully there is always your home league where he will probably slip.
Jordan Addison – Minnesota Vikings – WR38
The Minnesota Vikings moved on from old man Adam Thielen in the offseason. and almost like it was their plan all along they drafted the stud first-round wide receiver Jordan Addison to take his place. Sound familiar?
Addison enters the NFL with a chip on his shoulder after the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner was bypassed in the NFL draft not once, not twice, but three times in a row! Watching Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Zay Flowers go off in front of him had to sting a bit. The prospect of running routes alongside Justin Jefferson though might even it all out in the end.
Addison plugs into a Minnesota Vikings offense that has close to 110 targets available. K.J. Osborn will be involved in the Vikings’ passing game and might even outscore Addison in the first few weeks of the season. But don’t lose heart fantasy drafter, his time will come.
Like many rookie wide receivers, look for Addison to heat up as the season progresses and he becomes more familiar with Minnesota’s playbook and refines his route tree. Justin Jefferson started 4.6 and 7.4 his first two weeks of his career, so don’t overreact too much if he’s not catching touchdowns like Adam Thielen immediately.
Gabriel Davis – Buffalo Bills – WR39
Gabe Davis truthers are still reeling in the graves they dug for themselves last year to hide from his WR35 finish. The hype from his four-touchdown performance in the 2021 playoff game against the Chiefs vaulted him to WR26 in 2022 drafts. Wild times, right?
His ADP came crashing back to earth this summer and he is currently being drafted in the WR39 range. Here’s the thing, last year Davis averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game. The 39th-ranked player in fantasy points per game averaged 11.4 points per game and also happened to be Davis. This means that he is currently being drafted at his absolute floor.
The market is still skittish after being roasted last season which means that there is value to be had. Gabe Davis is not the league winner we thought he was last season, but he won’t cost you your draft either. I am comfortable drafting Davis in the 8th round and starting him as my WR3/4 this season.
Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints – WR41
The only group of truthers down bigger than the aforementioned Gabe Davis truthers are Michael Thomas truthers. I am sure a few egomaniacs are clinging to wifi life in a public library muttering Thomas’s name under their breath as they map out his phoenix-like rise to fantasy resplendence.
Thomas only has 56 receptions since he set the single-season receiving record of 149 in 2019. Despite having only been four seasons ago, it feels like a lifetime since Thomas has had any fantasy relevance. He’s only played in 10 out of the last 49 regular season games for the Saints.
Reports out of Saints training camp though are that Thomas is completely healthy and back to his dominant “slant boy” self. Great news for Saint’s new quarterback Derek Carr and the Saints’ offense. The QB/WR duo has been firing on all cylinders in their joint practice sessions. Evening creating separation and making it look easy agaisnt the NFL’s top safety, Derwin James.
Michael Thomas is being drafted as the WR41 this season. The average WR41 over the last five seasons has scored 11.2 FPG. Thomas has never averaged less than 12 FPG per game in his career. His 9th-round ADP stands out as a screaming value for a WR with top-24 potential each week. I’m back on Michael Thomas!!
Quentin Johnston – Los Angeles Chargers – WR45
Last year Justin Herbert finished the season as QB11, averaging 16.4 FGP. This was behind perennial prime-time disappointment Kirk Cousins, fifth-year option-less (at the time) Daniel Jones, and Christen Harper’s boyfriend, Jared Goff. Ouch.
The former natives of beautiful San Diego, which we all know means “a whale’s vagina” were restless this offseason. The Chargers fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach Shane Day after two mediocre seasons.
Kellen Moore is now helming the offensive coordinator position for the Chargers and expectations for Justin Herbert are once again sky-high. Adding intrigue to the equation, the Chargers drafted stud wide receiver, Quentin Johnston out of TCU with the 21st pick in the first round.
Many people are saying it’s “curious” Given the fact that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are still on the team. Denny Carter from NBC’s Rotoworld said the following when he joined my WR2 Theory podcast earlier this summer.
“If you are high on Justin Herbert in this new Kellen Moore offense, he should be more aggressive with downfield throwing. If you think Justin Herbert is going to have a big year, then you necessarily probably have to be high on Quentin Johnston’s ADP.”
Injuries to both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have limited Herbert’s overall effectiveness over the past two seasons. Denny Carter says what we are all thinking. “I can envision a scenario where Mike Williams misses some time and Quentin Johnston gets funneled Targets on the outside as the main boundary receiver for Justin Herbert and so…if I think Herbert is going to throw a lot of touchdowns, Keenan Allen isn’t going to catch alllll of them, so I have to be high on him (Johnston).”
According to Jack Deignan of Chargers ClutchPoints.com, “Updates out of Chargers training camp consistently indicate that his size and strength has been a problem for defenders on the roster, and Justin Herbert has been taking advantage. Herbert himself has praised Johnston for quickly asserting himself and showing why he was a first-round pick, and Herbert believes that he can be a true asset in his rookie season.”
Skyy Moore – Kansas City Chiefs – WR48
Shocker!! Kadarius Toney is OUT. The Kansas City wide receiver was hurt on the very first practice of training camp. Andy Reid revealed that Toney suffered a torn Meniscus, but is expected to be ready at the start of the NFL season. My advice? Don’t hold your breath waiting for Toney’s return, because you might run out of oxygen, leaving your fantasy team on life support.
Instead of an oft-injured Toney, could I interest you in some Skyy Moore? Sure last year’s rookie fantasy campaign scoring 43.3 total fantasy points mirrored that of Marco Rubio’s presidential run, non-existent. The good news is that JuJu TikTok-Shuster and Mecole “Ricola” Hardman have moved onto other crappier teams, leaving more opportunities for the second-year wide receiver.
According to Nate Christensen of ArrowheadPride.com, “Moore is going to be asked to be the Chiefs’ No. 1 wide receiver going into the season — a cosmic leap from the role he had in his rookie season.” Comparisons have been made to longtime Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb. Christensen writes, “Similar to Cobb, Moore was stuck in a deep wide receiver rotation his rookie year, which limited his productivity. Once opportunities opened in his second year, however, Cobb excelled.”
A Randall Cobb-like ascension would be nice, but I am tempering my expectations just a bit. The 135 targets up for grabs in the Chiefs’ offense won’t all be going Moore’s way, but he should see close to 90-100 in his current role. The Chiefs’ offense has been perennial atop the NFL as Mahomes has racked up touchdown after touchdown. Travis Kecle can’t catch them all!
Tier 4 – Rounds 10-16 – DEPTH
Allen Lazard – New York Jets – WR56
Aaron Rodgers went into the darkness this offseason and in that darkness, he saw a beast flash in the shadows. Rodgers was scared but also aroused. Just like he likes it. As he approached the monster he realized it was just 6’5” 230lbs Allen Lazard running routes on a foggy football field. He called out to him, “It’s me, hi I’m the problem, it’s me.” Allen called back, “Why are you naked?” Rodgers smiled widely and they laughed and laughed all the way to the New York Jets.
But for real, Aaron Rodgers literally brought all his besties from the Packers with him to the Jets this past offseason, including Allen “Grown-Ass Man” Lazard. Garrett Wilson is the clear alpha wide receiver on the team, but Alan Lazard is too much of a man-beast to be ignored in fantasy. He finished the 2022 NFL season as fantasy WR34, averaging 11.7 FPG.
He’s currently being drafted as the WR54 at the end of the 11th round. I don’t expect Lazard to compete with Garrett Wilson for WR1 status this season but the ADP gap between the two is just ridiculous. Last year the WR54 scored 7.1 FPG and only amassed 122.4 fantasy points. The value is baked right into Lazard’s absurdly low ADP.
I will definitely be drafting Allen Lazard (just drafted him in a PPR league at the (Fantasy Football Expo) for WR depth and as a viable bye-week fill-in. I am not expecting Lazard to be a league winner, but he should outperform his ADP and be a solid contributor when needed this season.
Romeo Doubs – Green Bay Packers – WR60
Romeo! Oh, Romeo! Wherefore art thou Romeo? No this isn’t Shakespeare. It’s me looking for Romeo Doubs ADP…
scanning…
Oh, there it is!
I found it… WR60.
That’s just absurd given that the Packers wide receiver room lost Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb to the New York Jets. According to Not John Daigle, the Packers have over 70% of their 2023 targets available.
Expectation is the root of all heartache and currently Christian Watson is being drafted as the overall WR23, eight rounds before Doubs. I love Watson this year, but I will be taking the later-round Doubs every single time at his 13.08 ADP.
Denny Carter, @CdCarter13 on Twitter (I refuse to ever call it anything else) spoke on the ADP disparity. “You know could speak to him (Doubs) being either neck and neck with Christian Watson as the top wide receiver for the Packers or maybe even just the WR1 for the Packers. According to Next Gen stats, Romeo Dobbs had by far the best separation numbers among Green Bay whiteouts in 2022 and you know he doesn’t rely on the huge play like Christian Watson.”
Remember that pleasure and action make the hours seem short, but a fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. I’m buying what Denny is selling and drafting Doubs as a late-round wide receiver.
As fantasy drafts approach I implore you, once more into the breach, dear friends, once more WR2Theory and remember this above all; to thine own self be true.
Van Jefferson – Los Angeles Rams – WR79
Last season Allen Robinson was drafted at the end of the third round. I laughed when someone who shall remain nameless in my home league, named Ben, picked him at the 3.11. Oh, the horror! LOL
With that being said, Van Jefferson, the WR2 on the Rams is currently being drafted as the WR79, which means he is not really being drafted at all. When Jefferson was healthy in 2021 he scored 168 fantasy points and finished as WR36 overall.
There is plenty of Puka Nacua training camp hype to navigate, but I am confident that Jefferson will be a waiver wire add the first few weeks of the season. With Cooper Kupp nursing a hamstring injury, Jefferson is reaping the reps with Matthew Stafford. His 15.6 yards per reception last year means big plays, exactly what you need from bye week back-ups.
My guy LaQuan Jones, states a great case for snagging him with one of your later-round picks. I respect LQ and trust his acumen as an L.A. Rams insider. I’m drafting Van.
Nimble w/Numbers 