Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Trinkets and Baubles

December is here again. With the holiday season in full swing, my family is also celebrating my in-laws’ 40th anniversary and my nephew’s birthday early in the month. That’s also the precursor to the 29th, where my sister, daughter, close friend Vince (the one who first called me Big Time), and Matthew Berry celebrate their birthday. December is also a special month for football, with the NFL playoff race and college bowl season, but I’ll beg your pardon if I seem distant. I have a lot of things to juggle and stress about.

My daughter will be nine years old this year. She’s as sharp as they come and was gifted with an old soul, full of wisdom beyond her years. She also inherited my inability to pick up after myself in a timely manner. The kid is a tornado of crafting, drawings, video games, and stuffed animals. It took her and I two hours to clean her room last night. We folded clothes and had piles of stuff to throw away, donate to charity, and relocate. In the end, she still staunchly refused to throw away an old Amazon box with a blanket and a couple toys, where our cat Juney “occasionally sleeps when I kick her off the bed.” The cat never sleeps in that box, but tossing it was crossing the line.

Where am I going with this? Let’s just say that I might be too quick to throw things away, while Addison is reluctant to let anything go. I’ve seen too many episodes of Hoarders to think that this behavior is healthy, but maybe it’s better to compromise instead of picking this particular hill to die on. We will make another sweep through with a donation box before another double wave of gifts washes ashore at the end of the month. A couple years ago, her idea was just to “buy a bigger house.” It makes me chuckle (and shudder) to think back at the look of concern my wife and I shared with one another when she suggested that.

In fantasy football, and DFS, it’s a double-edged sword. If you cast away positive notions about a player too soon, you might miss out on future breakout performances. Should you hold onto fond memories of winning with someone, you might also be blinded to potential pitfalls that can cost you down the road. Many were hating on Joe Mixon after an injury-plagued 2020. He’s been in six perfect DFS lineups this season already. I keep trying to shoe-horn Laviska Shenault into lineups because he’s “too good and too cheap.” He hasn’t won me anything. I guess the message this week is, “keep an open mind.” Do I think Alexander Mattison, Myles Gaskin, and Foster Moreau are very good at football? Not exactly. They are still very likely to return value in DFS cash games on the Week 13 NFL main slate.

Week 13 is one of the biggest slates for value plays we’ve had this season. DK salaries are largely inclusive, meaning that there are so many good plays for cash because there aren’t many players too expensive to roster for their expected output. FanDuel is famous for this type of pricing, which I don’t tend to like. Whittling down your roster to the best players will be challenging. The volume-based EVO model should help you do that very thing.

Week 13 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 22: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after running for a first down in the first quarter of the game against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on November 22, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Quarterbacks

LAMAR JACKSON: @ PITTSBURGH ($7,800)

Lamar hasn’t looked like himself the last couple of weeks, culminating with his four interceptions in the last game. He still has a truly elite rushing floor and ceiling and faces a terrible Steelers secondary. Jackson also tends to play very well against the Steelers. I don’t expect Pittsburgh to have the scheme or personnel to confuse Lamar like the Browns did.

MATTHEW STAFFORD: VS JACKSONVILLE ($7,300)

Stafford has recoiled back into a Detroit-like shell the last few weeks. The Jags haven’t been terrible against opposing quarterbacks this season, but they really don’t match up well with this LA passing attack. A hobbled Darrell Henderson will also push the Rams to air it out with Kupp, Beckham (if healthy), Jefferson, and even Higbee.

TOM BRADY: @ ATLANTA ($7,200)

On a normal slate, this would be a nasty, chalky mess. With all the values on the board for Week 13, however, Brady stands to rebound after relinquishing all of his touchdowns to the running backs last week. Atlanta will get destroyed in this game, one way or the other. It’s doubtful that all of the touchdowns will miss Brady once again.

JALEN HURTS: @ NY JETS ($7,000)

Coming into this game, Hurts…hurts. He is dealing with a sore ankle, which might limit his rushing ability. On the other hand, I expect the running backs and receivers to have such a field day that Hurts will score a ton of fantasy points by dispersing the ball to his weapons.

KIRK COUSINS: @ DETROIT ($6,500)

Keeping with the theme of potent passing attacks matching up with horrible defenses, the Vikings will head to Ford Field to beat up on the Lions. Cousins won’t have the dynamic presence of Dalvin Cook to take pressure off of him, so there will be an uptick in passing volume to Jefferson and Thielen against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Mattison is Cook Ultra-Lite, but is very capable as a receiver out of the backfield to help Cousins further.

DEREK CARR: VS WASHINGTON ($6,000)

Washington’s schedule has really lightened up lately, which has made their defense look less like trash. The Raiders offense has been remarkably consistent this season, especially through the air. Carr has been a prolific passer, even if the touchdowns haven’t come through as well in the last couple of games. It’s safe to say Carr will pass for over 300 yards in this one, with a couple scores to boot.

TAYLOR HEINICKE: @ LAS VEGAS ($5,600)

Across the field from Carr is a less-consistent (but more athletic) option at quarterback that saves $400 in salary. Vegas’ secondary has been tough on bad teams and abysmal against good teams. Washington slots somewhere in the middle, especially with Logan Thomas back off the IR to alleviate coverage on Terry McLaurin.

TUA TAGOVAILOA: VS NY GIANTS ($5,500)***

The accuracy stats should surprise no one. Tua has been laser-precise all the way back to his freshman year at Alabama. Multiple teams tanked to be able to draft him. Now that he is more than a year removed from a catastrophic hip injury, he is dialed in. Miami has put some weaponry around him, namely Waddle and Gesicki. There is no way the Giants can slow down the Dolphins. Miami’s weakness is their offensive line, and the Giants have zero pass rush to exploit it.

TYROD TAYLOR: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($5,300)

Tyrod hasn’t been entirely consistent this season, especially after his stint on the IR with a bad hamstring. He is, however, underpriced this week against a Colts defense that is a wonderful pass funnel. Indy will be ahead early in this game, putting Tyrod squarely in garbage time hero territory for Sunday.

Running Backs

JONATHAN TAYLOR: @ HOUSTON ($9,200)

We all dreamed about this bell cow role for JT. Now that it is truly happening every week, he has become the belle of the ball for running back production. Indy will continue to bludgeon defenses with their great o-line and Taylor. After two “bad” matchups, where JT still feasted, an all-green date with the Texans is dilating my pupils.

AUSTIN EKELER: @ CINCINNATI ($8,300)

He may not be a “household name,” but Ekeler is up there with JT as one of the most consistently-dominant running backs in the game today. His health is part of that equation, but even the toughest matchups haven’t hampered his production in PPR formats. The previously touchdown-challenged Ekeler already has 14 this season.

JOE MIXON: VS LA CHARGERS ($8,100)

Once the most polarizing figures in all of fantasy sports, Mixon is now one of three elite running backs who has not been bitten by the ultra-venomous injury bug. Most of the knocks on Mixon after last season were surrounding how supposedly “injury prone” he is. The 2021 version is getting a bell cow workload without so much as a whimper. He now has a date with the league’s best run funnel defense.

ALEXANDER MATTISON: @ DETROIT ($7,600)***

I had thrown Mattison away after last season. It seemed like he shriveled whenever he was given the chance to shine when Dalvin Cook missed time. The Vikings give one running back nearly all the work, which renders Mattison useless until Cook goes down. This season, Mattison has been awesome when Dalvin Cook is out of action, averaging over 20 fantasy points per game as a starter. The Lions are one of the worst run defenses in NFL history. Mattison will feast, especially as a receiver out of the backfield.

LEONARD FOURNETTE: @ ATLANTA ($7,300)

Wouldn’t you know, Lenny was the ultimate leverage play last week. I watched all my Brady stacks turn my GPP lineups to ashes. I knew JT was a good leverage play, but Fournette was the slate breaker. It’s really hard to imagine him as leverage this week. As a cash play, he is a sure bet to dominate the Falcons. His new salary still made him close to being too expensive for his expected volume in this game.

ELIJAH MITCHELL*: @ SEATTLE ($6,000)

The rookie out of Louisiana is making waves as this year’s version of James Robinson. A waiver wire darling has now commandeered the bell cow role in the omnipotent 49ers rushing attack. The Seahawks have been a massive disappointment this season and will continue to be, when San Francisco lays waste to them in Week 13 behind a truly staggering performance from Mitchell.

JAMES CONNER: @ CHICAGO ($5,900)

Conner is on my GPP radar this week. The bye week blind spot will never be more obscure than on this slate. There are so many good plays to be had that Conner’s volume and receiving upside are easy to overlook. The return of Kyler Murray this week will ensure that Conner won’t need to fret over a loaded box.

MYLES GASKIN: VS NY GIANTS ($5,800)

It was odd to see Gaskin turn in a good game on an even-numbered week. He played terribly, as expected, but happened to also score twice. He is not a good football player at all, but the Dolphins offense is rolling through a Charmin-soft schedule these days. Gaskin will easily return good value yet again versus a putrid, pathetic excuse for a Giants defense.

ANTONIO GIBSON: @ LAS VEGAS ($5,700)

It’s truly a beautiful sight to see an uber-talented running back get so much work on Monday Night Football. We also get the residual benefit of the DK salaries getting released before his huge game, where his fantasy points-scavenging teammate also left with an injury. Gibson would be at $7k if he played last Sunday and Vegas won’t be able to slow him down.

JAMAAL WILLIAMS: VS MINNESOTA ($5,400)

Volume pays the bills and the Lions love to run the football and check down to their backs in the passing game. D’Andre Swift has very little reason to return to play this season, giving the artist formerly known as Jamaawful a clear path to become a darling of the fantasy playoffs. Williams will have a huge role in this game against a below-average Vikings run defense.

MILES SANDERS: @ NY JETS ($5,200)

The Eagles still hate Miles Sanders. They might not have a choice but to give him more carries this week, with Jalen Hurts nursing an ankle injury. Philly inexplicably gave fourth-string running back, Boston Scott more touches than Sanders last week in a loss. This team is a walking brain fart, but Sanders is the perfect weapon against a Jets team that gives up nearly 40 fantasy points per game to the running back position.

TEVIN COLEMAN: VS PHILADELPHIA ($4,500)

I was wrong last week. I incorrectly predicted that the Jets would give their most talented running back (Ty Johnson) the most touches. Instead, that honor was bestowed upon Coleman and even to journeyman practice squad player, Austin Walter (who?). It would be mind-numbing if they went back to Johnson, now that I’m hanging my hat on Coleman.

Wide Receivers

COOPER KUPP: VS JACKSONVILLE ($9,000)

Kupp is very easily the most consistent receiving threat on this slate, with Davante Adams on his bye week. The Jags have been average against wide receivers, but Kupp has been seeing abnormal volume this season and is well above average in the skill department. The Rams will need to lean even harder into the Kupp section of the playbook this week, with Henderson and Beckham limping around.

DEEBO SAMUEL: @ SEATTLE ($8,300)***

Kyle Shanahan didn’t need to, but he has successfully transitioned Deebo into a full-fledged running back; a really good one. As we mentioned with Mitchell above, the Seahawks are an utter failure this season, especially against “pass catching running backs.” The quotes are for describing whatever it is that Deebo Samuel has become. I want all the pieces of this 49ers offense, in what will be a huge rout.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON: @ DETROIT ($8,200)

The Dalvin Cook injury really does put the Vikings in a tough predicament on offense. They are fortunate to coordinate that injury to a date with the winless Lions. I do see more of an emphasis on the passing game coming for Minnesota, in order to exploit their huge advantage at receiver against this secondary. Both Jefferson and Thielen offer plenty of floor and upside the same.

ADAM THIELEN: @ DETROIT ($7,300)

I emphasized the huge price gap last week, which pointed me to play Thielen over Jefferson against the 49ers (woohoo!), but the gap is smaller this week. In cash, you don’t need to double dip on both guys, but this week will be more of a coin flip based on salary constraints when building your lineups. Thielen is a solid option yet again, especially with him being the favorite red zone option for Cousins.

DIONTAE JOHNSON: VS BALTIMORE ($6,800)

Boy, did the Steelers (Ben) look dreadful last week! This is not a good football team at all, but they are coached well enough to be competitive in most games. Pittsburgh leans into their best players, like Diontae, in these rugged divisional games. Johnson is a target monster and the Ravens have been suspect on the corners all season.

MIKE EVANS: @ ATLANTA ($6,700)

Much like with the Vikings receivers, you can very easily play either one of these guys in cash games this week. Evans and Godwin were extremely quiet last week, as neither one of them cracked double digit fantasy points against Indy. This is great in a way, reducing their salaries to comical levels against Atlanta.

CHRIS GODWIN: @ ATLANTA ($6,600)

Godwin was the receiver who got the ball punched out by Darius Leonard for a turnover in the open field. Chalk it up to an amazing play by a future hall of fame linebacker, but Tampa Bay was intent on winning on the ground last week. Atlanta is so bad at every level of the defense, that they will give it up through the air and on the ground Sunday. Godwin’s target share will hold strong yet again.

MARQUISE BROWN: @ PITTSBURGH ($6,500)

In a stunning development of a player’s role, Brown has already piled up 92 targets this season. Inexplicably, his DK salary also dropped $400 from last week. Pittsburgh is getting roasted by speedy receivers this season. It seems there might be a connection here.

JALEN WADDLE: VS NY GIANTS ($6,400)

These former Alabama receivers are truly special. All of them. I was cautiously optimistic coming into this season about Waddle. Miami misused him early in the season, but a healthy Tua has allowed the speedster to blossom as an NFL wide receiver over the last month. You might know by now that the Giants are a sorry excuse for a franchise and have no defense, so Waddle is a fun play with immense upside this week.

DEVONTA SMITH: @ NY JETS ($6,100)

I think the world of Smith. He is already a polished professional receiver, even if his quarterback doesn’t always deliver accurate, on-time passes to him consistently. The other Alabama rookie first round pick will have zero trouble getting open against the Jets.

HUNTER RENFROW: VS WASHINGTON ($5,800)

The target volume for Renfrow is as placid as an alpine lake on a windless afternoon. His salary has seen a steady rise all season as he continues to exceed expectations. The Cowboys and Football Team have similar struggles against slot receivers, with the former allowing Renfrow’s first 20-plus point performance of the season.

MICHAEL PITTMAN JR: @ HOUSTON ($5,700)

It was a 10 target game for Pittman last week, which came as no surprise to me after my prediction. The unfortunate part was that he only pulled in four of those targets for 53 yards. Houston is goin to have all of their eggs in the stop JT basket this week, freeing up the play action passes that make Pittman absolutely lethal.

BRANDON AIYUK: @ SEATTLE ($5,600)

I love that Aiyuk is cheaper than Kittle again this week. The 49ers never ask their wide receivers to eschew running routes to stay in for pass protection. Aiyuk’s sharp route running and elite athleticism will make him a nightmare down the field in Seattle. The Seahawks will be doing everything in their power to slow down the running game, leaving Aiyuk open to do damage.

VAN JEFFERSON: VS JACKSONVILLE ($5,300)

Jefferson is a true home run hitter this season. I don’t believe the Rams intend for him to assume that role, but with catching only 33% of his targets for 93 yards and a touchdown, we will take it. It would be even nicer if those nine targets were converted at a higher percentage against the Jags.

AJ GREEN: @ CHICAGO ($5,000)

The AJ Green disrespect must stop. We still don’t know if Hopkins will return to full strength at all in the near future, putting the 6’4″ future hall of famer Green in charge of the outside route running. I was ready to put Kirk on this list until I saw that the more-reliable Green was $600 less. He will give the Bears fits, whether Murray and/or Hopkins play or not.

RASHOD BATEMAN: @ PITTSBURGH ($4,900)

The ultra-talented rookie out of Minnesota has been very impressive so far this season. He has not yet eaten into the volume of Brown or Andrews, but his DK salary reflects that. The Steelers will have their hands full to try and slow down this passing offense. Yes, the Ravens passing offense.

LANDOVER, MD – OCTOBER 25: Logan Thomas #82 of the Washington Football Team celebrates after gaining a first down against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half at FedExField on October 25, 2020 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Tight Ends

MARK ANDREWS: @ PITTSBURGH ($6,000)

He’s the MANdrews! The 2021 TE2 behind Kelce comes in with three-consecutive games over 15 DK points. Pittsburgh is 11th at defending the tight end position, but really haven’t been challenged by many elite ones this season. Baltimore has needed to be more pass-heavy than ever before in the Lamar Jackson era because of their troubles at the running back position. I dig that against a pass funnel like the Steelers.

GEORGE KITTLE: @ SEATTLE ($5,900)

Kittle barely made this list. He is nearly too expensive for the six targets I have him projected for. He is simply too valuable as a blocker, despite his prowess as a game-breaking receiver. If he was under $5.5k, I would be a lot more comfortable with him in cash games. For now, I see him as more of an upside GPP leverage play.

KYLE PITTS: VS TAMPA BAY ($5,600)

Pitts is my favorite rookie receiver this year, but he is similar to Kittle in that he barely made this list. Matt Ryan has been so risk-averse this season in targeting Pitts that it’s infuriating. Even when Ryan does target Pitts, the passes have been largely uncatchable. To make matters even worse, Arthur Smith refuses to draw plays up for the rookie in the red zone. Pitts has only one red zone target since Week 6. Even his six target projection can get him on the watch list, but the coaching and quarterback play for the Falcons has been nothing short of a dereliction of responsibility.

ROB GRONKOWSKI: @ ATLANTA ($5,300)

Gronk is definitely back. He was nearly the key ingredient this week at tight end, narrowly missing out because of Logan Thomas’ incredible value prop. If I have the salary to round out my builds with Gronk, I will not hesitate to lock him in. He was spectacular last week, even without scoring a touchdown. That’s exactly what I hope for in a cash game.

MIKE GESICKI: VS NY GIANTS ($5,100)

For the last time (this week), I will highlight just how abhorrent and embarrassing the New York Giants’ defense is this season. You might have surmised that I will be stacking the Dolphins heavily in GPP, as well as lacing all my cash lineups with Fins (don’t tell PETA). Gesicki is at a very attainable price with his steady volume and touchdown upside in this offense. The only downside is how democratic Tua has been with target dispersal to his various receivers.

LOGAN THOMAS: @ LAS VEGAS ($4,000)***

What was supposed to be a tempered return to action for Thomas turned into a 77% snap share, six target performance against the Seahawks on Monday night. He very nearly cashed in with a late touchdown that was overturned on replay. The Monday night blind spot is smiling upon us this week with a top-flight tight end coming in at $4k against the second-worst defense against the position. I will be over the field on Thomas in GPP as well.

FOSTER MOREAU: VS WASHINGTON ($2,700)

The reason I’ll be able to be over the field on Thomas this week is because the Raiders’ ringer at tight end is going to summon all the chalk at $2,700. Darren Waller’s knee injury thrusts Moreau into the spotlight of this tight end friendly Vegas scheme. His last game as a starter ended up as a 6/6/60/1 performance against the Eagles. Washington is a bit stouter against the tight end position than Philly, so I won’t be eating the chalk pill this week on Moreau. He’s a fine play in cash.

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 13! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

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High Priced – Quarterback

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,200

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 28: Rob Gronkowski #87 and Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are seen before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Tom Brady leaned on Leonard Fournette last week, disappointing DraftKings players across the country. According to OccupyFantasy.com, Brady is only projected to be rostered in 5.6% of DraftKings lineups. I’m expecting that to spike around 10%, which is still a tremendous value for someone who threw five touchdowns against the Falcons in their previous meeting earlier this very season. I’m expecting Brady to bounce back in a big way this week, throwing for at least three scores in a blowout statement win over Matty Ice and the Falcons.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders – $6,000

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 25: Derek Carr #4 of the Las Vegas Raiders scrambles with the football against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on November 25, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Derek Carr ranks eighth in DraftKings points this season, averaging 24 points per game. The Washington Football Team is the absolute worst against quarterbacks, giving up 23.5 points per game. The Vegas Books currently have the over/under at 49.5, with a 25.75 implied team total for the Raiders. Look for the Raiders to air it out with Hunter Renfrow and the newly signed DeSean Jackson, who is out to revenge Washington…again. Foster Moreau will be filling in for an injured Darren Waller and makes a great cheap game stacking option if you want to load up on this matchup.

Value – Quarterback

Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans – $5,300

Tyrod Taylor is averaging 16.9 DraftKings points per game in the five games he has started this season. The Colts lead the league in turnovers but also have been terrible against wide quarterbacks giving up over 3,000 yards passing and 26 touchdowns. Taylor has touchdown and rushing upside in this match and is worth pairing with a reasonably priced Brandin Cooks at $5,900. Brevin Jordan at $2,500 is worth a dart throw if you are punting tight end and want a player with touchdown upside.

High Priced – Running Back

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts– $9,200

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 28: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts is tackled by Lavonte David #54 and Sean Murphy-Bunting #23 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

The last time Jonathan Taylor played the Houston Texans in Week 6 all he did was rush for 145 yards and two touchdowns, good for 31.8 DraftKings points. This week Taylor is priced up to $9,200, but he’s still one of the best values on the slate given his upside. I will be stacking Taylor with the Colts DST if at all this week.

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Mid-Range – Running Back

Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers – $6,000

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 28: Elijah Mitchell #25 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Levi’s Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

I was wrong about Elijah Mitchell! I want the whole world to hear about it so I don’t have to hear about it anymore from my cohost of the @FFMillionaires Podcast, @TheRalphMacho on Twitter. Mitchell is the real deal in the Kyle Shanahan offense. Last week he saw over 30 opportunities and this week he faces the Seattle Seahawks who rank 31st against running backs, giving up close to 32 points per game. Mitchell has three touchdown upside this week and should be viable in all GPP tournaments.

Value – Running Back

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles – $5,200

Miles Sanders was averaging over 7 yards per touch last week before he was injured in the first half, failing to return in the second. This week Sanders is back and healthy enough to get in two full practices this week. Jordan Howard is OUT and Boston Scott has not practiced all week. The New York Jets rank 32nd against running backs, giving up 35 points per game on average. Miles Sanders let a lot of people down last week and as of Friday night is only projecting a 2.3% rostership. Sal Vetri says it’s all about the leverage, and Sanders might be the nuts at $5,200.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Keenan Allen, LA Chargers – $7,500

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 21: Keenan Allen #13 of the Los Angeles Chargers reacts after a reception against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the third quarter at SoFi Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Keenan Allen is averaging 11.6 targets per game, and 20.3 DraftKings points per game in the last 5 games. Coincidence? Possibly. Allen’s 31% target share over that span is tops in the NFL. The Chargers are road underdogs and should be trailing or fighting a back and forth score for score slugfest with Joe Burrow and rookie sensations Ja’Marr Chase. I’m projecting Allen for over 20 DraftKings points this week and will be stacking him with Herbert and Joe Mixon in mid-range GPP tournaments.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders – $5,800

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 14: Wide receiver Hunter Renfrow #13 of the Las Vegas Raiders catches a 6-yard touchdown pass against cornerback Charvarius Ward #35 of the Kansas City Chiefs during their game at Allegiant Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Chiefs defeated the Raiders 41-14. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

According to RunTheSims.com, Hunter Renfrow has a 22.9% optimal rate this week when he squares off with the Washington Football Team. PFF projects Renfrow for 49 snaps and a favorable rating in his cornerback matchups as well. With Darren Waller trending towards OUT, Renfrow becomes the WR1 on the team and should see 8-10 targets. The Washington Football team ranks 29th against wide receivers, giving up over 39 points per game. Renfrow will be live in all GPP formats this week.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions– $3,400

Josh Reynolds at $3,400 is a steal this week. I was very excited to discover this and was hopeful that no one else had. Then I came across a Tweet by some punk kid named Denny Carter, who goes by the handle @cdcarter13 on Twitter and he said, “i’m psychically unable to stop throwing josh reynolds into lineups” Which I found to be disingenuous and now the cat is out of the bag apparently. I’m still willing to roll with him as a run-back option in a Minnesota/Detroit game stack or as a punt play.

High Priced – Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $6,000

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 28: Mark Andrews #89 of the Baltimore Ravens reacts to a play during a game against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Mark Andrews has been a target monster, averaging 9 per game the past 5 weeks. Lamar Jackson has been leaning heavily on his tight end, treating him more like a wide receiver. The Pittsburgh Steelers are falling apart, giving up 40 points per game to wide receivers the last two weeks. Look for the Ravens to exploit the mismatch and get Andrews downfield in open space. I’m comfortable stacking Lamar with Andrews in smaller GPP contests.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,300

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 28: Rob Gronkowski #87 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is seen following the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Rob Gronkowski is averaging 18.76 DraftKings points per game this season in the five games he’s played. He’s severally underpriced but has some injury risk baked into his price this week. I, for one, am willing to take a big swing with Gronk and will be featuring him in stacks with Tom Brady and naked as well.

Value – Tight End

Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders – $2,700

The best punt tight end play of the week, Foster Moreau at $2,700 makes tons of sense in place of an injured Darren Waller. In previous fill-in duty, Moreau caught all six of his targets for 60 yards and a score. The floor in this matchup should be 8 points, his true viability will be touchdown-dependent.

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Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 12! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

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High Priced – Quarterback

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,600

TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 22: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after running for a first down in the first quarter of the game against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on November 22, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Tom Brady leads the NFL with 29 passing touchdowns and is third in passing yards with 3,177. He’s a damn machine at 44 and I’m banking on him this week to exploit the Indianapolis Colts’ terrible secondary that has given up 25 touchdowns and 2,861 yards passing to opposing quarterbacks. Brady is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, but he will still be popular. I plan on stacking him with Godwin and Gronk to maximize his upside and secure the majority of his potential touchdown passes. I’m comfortable playing Brady in small, medium, and large field GPP tournaments.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Cincinnatti Bengals – $6,200 

Joe Burrow and the Cinncinatti Bengals already gave the Pittsburgh Steelers the beat down this year, 24 -10 in Week 3. Burrow threw for three scores, connecting with Ja’Marr Chase twice. The Steelers didn’t have an answer for him then and they certainly don’t have one now, as they are battling injuries to the defensive line and in their secondary. I’m stacking these two and running it back with Diontae Johnson.

Value – Quarterback

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers – $5,600

In his first game back in Carolina, Cam Newton looked great, passing for two scores and rushing 24 yards for another. This week he faces a Dolphins defense that ranks 28th against quarterbacks, giving up 21 total touchdowns and 3,199 yards passing on the season. Cam is priced up $500, but is still a great paydown option for constructing high upside GPP lineups. Stacking Cam with D.J. is on the table, and so is playing Cam naked.

High Priced – Running Back

Christian McCaffery, Carolina Panthers – $9,000

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 21: Christian McCaffrey #22 of the Carolina Panthers carries the ball against the defense of the Washington Football Team in the first quarter of the game at Bank of America Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Christian McCaffery is OFFICIALLY back!! Last two weeks he combined for 51 points and has been the focal point of the Panthers’ passing attack. His 30% target share is comforting and I’m frankly shocked he’s not priced up higher. If it wasn’t for Jonathan’s Taylors explosive performance last week, CMC might be priced up even higher. I’m rolling him out in all GPP tournaments.

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Mid-Range – Running Back

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers – $5,900

A.J Dillon played well last week but did not “show up” and “show out” like we thought he would against the Vikings. 17 touches yielded only 15.7 DraftKings points. Dillon, who was one of the most popular plays on the slate last week, is only being rostered in 6% of DraftKings lineups in Week 12. The LA Rams are middle of the pack against running backs, giving up 979 rushing yards in 10 games. With a hobbled Aaron Rodgers, I expect the Packers to feed Dillon all game and also target him in the passing game.

Value – Running Back

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles – $5,100

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Miles Sanders #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles reacts prior to the game against the New Orleans Saints at Lincoln Financial Field on November 21, 2021, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Miles Sanders is also apparently back after rushing 14 times for 96 yards last week and is priced at only $5,100. The Eagles have reinvented themselves as a power-rushing team, running the ball 65% of the time the last three weeks. Jordan Howard has been ruled OUT for Week 12, meaning that Sanders should see the majority of carries against a terrible New York Giants. How terrible you ask. They have already given up over 1,600 combined rushing (1,060) and passing (573) yards to running backs. I probably should have kept this information to myself. Just don’t play Sanders against me, because I’ll have him too.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,000

TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 22: Chris Godwin #14 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts after getting a touchdown in the first quarter in the game against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on November 22, 2021, in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Chris Godwin has 91 DraftKings points over his last four games. Mike Evans has 79 points over that same time span, as both have seen increased targets with Antonio Brown OUT. It looks like Brown will miss Week 12 as well, opening the door for Godwin to pick up the slack. His 37 targets to Evans 28 the last 4 games, combined with his $200 price discount, and Evans nursing a back injury makes this decision for me. I’ll be stacking Godwin with Gronk in almost all of my Tom Brady stacks this week. I am also planning on running it back with Michael Pittman as a full-on game stack option.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver 

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,600

Diontae Johnson is Mr. Consistent when it comes to DraftKing’s wide receivers. His lowest output of the season was 11.7 DraftKings points. He’s scored double-digit points in every game this season. His 95 targets are good for seventh-best amongst wide receivers. He’s seen 10 or more targets in seven of nine games. Johnson should be priced up in the 7K range, so enjoy his discounted price one more week. I will be running him back in Burrow/Chase stacks in medium and larger field GPP tournaments.

Value – Wide Receiver 

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – OCTOBER 31: Michael Pittman Jr #11 of the Indianapolis Colts catches a pass while defended by Breon Borders #39 of the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts – $5,600

Michael Pittman is the best wide receiver value on the DraftKings Week 12 main slate this week. The last two weeks the Colts’ offense has run through Jonathan Taylor. Pittman’s skill set was not needed in order for the Colts to win the games. This week he will be needed against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The 53 point total is the highest on the board this week. This game should stay competitive or see the Colts trailing and needing to pass to keep pace. Either way, I’m running back all of my Tom Brady/Godwin stacks with Pittman. I’m also building games stacks with him and Gronk and Wentz as well. He’s viable in all GPP formats.

High Priced – Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $6,400  

It’s so great to have George Kittle back!! Since his return, he’s been averaging 17.8 DraftKings points per game. For a little context, Travis Kelce leads the NFL with a 17.6 point per game average. Kittle has seen 19 targets the last three weeks and should see plenty of volume in this matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. According to PFF, Kittle as a 29% advantage over Eric Kendricks. I’m rostering Kittle in smaller field GPP contests.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccanneers – $4,400

TAMPA, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 22: Rob Gronkowski #87 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up before the game against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on November 22, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Rob Gronkowski is back as well. I’m starting to see a theme for this week. “The Comeback” narrative is alive and well across the league in Week 12. Gronk returned last week and played well, catching six of eight targets for 71 yards. With Mike Evans battling back problems, I expect Brady to lean heavily on Gronk in the red zone this week. I would not be surprised to see him “Gronk Spike” at least once.

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Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Light It Up

I’m writing this on a made-up commercial holiday. Black Friday is every cliché about the American way of life, compressed into a 24-hour window the day after we’re supposed to reflect on all that we are thankful for. We are encouraged, if not urged, to spend our hard-earned and overtaxed dollars on supposed bargains for the greater economic good.

With an eggnog mustache and gravy stains on my sweater, I’ll be haunting the dark alleys of Amazon today. I prefer avoiding the droves of zombies on the hunt for a $300 HiSense TV with a credit card they haven’t even peeled the sticker off of. Plus, I don’t need worry about a cranky old lady pulling her mask down to sneeze on me at Best Buy if I don’t leave my living room

I will have to climb a ladder in my bearskin slippers today to pull Christmas decorations down from the attic. We eventually opted out of chopping down our own natural tree for a pre-lit artificial one a few years ago. I miss the outing and how undeniably sexy I look carrying an axe in a plaid shirt, but I don’t miss my old dog hiking his leg to mark the tree (and gifts) every day until we yeet the spider-filled fire hazard into the street.

If my house wasn’t so pretty all lit up with Christmas lights, I probably would think twice about risking my life by getting on the steep pitch of my second-story roof (also in my bearskin slippers) to hang them. The risks I take in DFS contests don’t involve the loss of life or limb, but there aren’t many people that will drive by and roll their window down to ooooh and ahhhh at my DraftKings lineups.

The main slate is trimmed down to a mere 10 games this week, making it skinnier than Devonta Smith. This is a good thing for playing cash games, limiting the variance of high volume players. We will attack this slate with the same process as always, leaning more on the conservative side with top-heavy salary distribution. Some of our cash picks really smashed as GPP standouts last week, just as we predicted. Expect scoring to be down this week, by comparison. The volume-based formula will be integral to winning on Sunday.

Week 12 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

TOM BRADY: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($7,600)

He might be older than one of my uncles, but Tommy is arguably the MVP frontrunner at this point of the NFL season. Nobody has been as consistent at hitting ceiling games and the 3-point bonus as the GOAT. Indy’s pass coverage has suffered this season after a litany of injuries. They are also a pass funnel defense.

JALEN HURTS: @ NY GIANTS ($7,300)

After three straight games under 10 points on DK, Hurts put up a monster ground game for over 30 against the Saints. The Giants are a rudderless embarrassment of a team and will get shellacked in this divisional game. Some concern might be how run-heavy the Eagles have been during this hot streak, but Hurts is a big part of why it’s working.

KIRK COUSINS: @ SAN FRANCISCO ($6,300)

Cousins is quietly having a remarkable season, highlighted by peak efficiency. I keep waiting for him to turn back into a late-November pumpkin like he always does, but he has been solid. The 49ers have shown signs of life on defense lately, but the weaponry that Cousins has around him is frightening.

JOE BURROW: VS PITTSBURGH ($6,200)***

This will be the most exciting game to watch on the slate. The Bengals’ offense is really clicking this season, even when their defense has been very inconsistent. I expect Burrow to attack this weakened Steelers back end relentlessly with all of his great receivers. They might also be more pass-heavy this week to meter down Joe Mixon’s workload.

CAM NEWTON: @ MIAMI ($5,600)

Cam Newton should have seen a huge hike in his DK salary, but now he’s going to be all sorts of chalk against the Dolphins at this price. Miami’s defense has improved, but Newton is fantasy gold at this value. Don’t be afraid to build your lineup around Cam and two stud running backs.

MATT RYAN: @ JACKSONVILLE ($5,500)

Matt Ryan is ticking me off this year. Some weeks he looks like a vintage muscle car, flying down the field with ease. Other weeks, he looks like every other Boston College quarterback in history except for Doug Flutie. The Jags can’t bring out bad Matt Ryan, can they?

TYROD TAYLOR: VS NY JETS ($5,300)

In the same vein as Cam Newton, these value-priced mobile quarterbacks will be very popular in GPP contests, but will allow you to pile more studs into your cash lineups with the top-heavy salary scales. The Jets don’t play defense, so I have plenty of confidence in Taylor’s ability to hit 18-20 points.

Running Backs

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY: @ MIAMI ($9,000)

Fade Jonathan Taylor?! After what we just witnessed? Yes. Every week deserves a new evaluation for DFS. I was wrong in expecting the Colts to be trailing Buffalo last week. I have the same prediction for this week against the Bucs. Tampa Bay should roll Indy, pushing for more of a Nyheim Hines game. The Bills don’t have a guy named Vita Vea either. Miami is horrible against opposing running backs and CMC is slightly cheaper. I’ll take the path of least resistance in cash.

NAJEE HARRIS: @CINCINNATI ($8,200)

Volume pays the bills in cash games and few touch the ball more times per game than Najee. The Bengals have also been a sieve against the run, which should boost Harris a bit behind his suspect offensive line. I’m really hoping for a nice shootout here, bringing Najee’s receiving upside back into focus.

JAMES ROBINSON: VS ATLANTA ($6,200)***

JRob sure looked healthy to me last week. He got bottled up against a tough 49ers run defense, but still found the end zone late. The Falcons are pitiful up front and even the Jags should be able to physically impose their will on the ground. At this salary, I will be way over the field on JRob.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS: VS LA CHARGERS ($5,200)

Every week could be the week that Javonte Williams leaves Melvin Gordon in the dust. To Gordon’s credit, he has been just as productive (albeit much less efficient). The Chargers have been run on plenty this season, refusing to load the box to prevent big passing plays. This bodes well for physical runners like Williams to break some big plays and find the end zone at least once.

MILES SANDERS: @ NY GIANTS ($5,100)

Could it be? Are the Eagles finally featuring their best running back? Despite dropping his only target and losing a fumble, Sanders had a season-high 16 carries for 94 yards. That was against a stout Saints run defense. The Birds get the pathetic, comically-terrible Giants this week. They might run for 500 yards on this team. At only $5.1k, Sanders is bound to produce at a value.

DONTRELL HILLIARD: @ NEW ENGLAND ($4,600)

Remember when we were marveling over the Titans’ offense in the preseason? Derrick Henry: OUT. Julio Jones: OUT. AJ Brown: OUT. This isn’t fun anymore. Hilliard had 15 touches (8 catches) last week in a stunning reversal of touch distribution in this backfield. While we have to listen to the Patriots fans pleasure themselves to a short winning streak against bad teams, the Titans are still good enough to beat them. Hilliard will get enough high value touches to hit at this price.

TY JOHNSON*: @ HOUSTON ($4,300)

I love this guy as a player. I also love Michael Carter, but he is inactive this week. Ty Johnson is an explosive back who will give the Texans defense fits on Sunday. Down at this salary, I will not hesitate to pull the trigger on an under-appreciated Jets player.

Wide Receivers

DAVANTE ADAMS: VS LA RAMS ($8,600)

I don’t give a hoot if Adams is covered by Deion Sanders himself, I’m playing his volume in cash, especially at a cool G less than Cooper Kupp in the same game. Matt LaFleur is a master at moving Davante around the formation to scheme him the ball (see last season). With the Ramsey fear, Adams is also a decent tournament play.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON: @ SAN FRANCISCO ($8,300)

With the way that the Vikings are rolling on offense at the moment, it makes no sense to walk away from the Jefferson heater. Mike Zimmer was peeved when it was leaked that they were planning to get the second-year pro out of LSU more involved, but the results have been nonetheless spectacular. The 49ers’ defense has been decent of late, but they don’t have a particularly strong coverage unit to limit Jefferson and Thielen.

KEENAN ALLEN: @ DENVER ($7,400)

We are finally seeing signs of life from this Chargers’ offense, after four down games. As the coaching staff releases their strangle hold on the playbook for Justin Herbert, the young Duck has been slicing and dicing defenses. Allen is his favorite option, as evidenced last week. Denver isn’t the worst defense, but it has been marred by inconsistent play. Bank on Allen’s target volume in this one.

JA’MARR CHASE: VS PITTSBURGH ($7,300)

This might only be the first or second time that the LSU standout rookie has made the cash list. He has been the ultimate cheat code for tournament play, but his volume is just now inching toward my threshold. The excitement and extreme skill level he puts on the field every week forced me to attack this play against the Steelers, who don’t have a healthy secondary. Burrow to Chase will be a killer stack once again.

CHRIS GODWIN: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($7,000)

Godwin is really on a roll these days with Antonio Brown recovering from a bad ankle injury. Now add in Mike Evans’ nagging back injury and Brady will have even more reason to attack the mismatches created by Godwin in the slot. Gronk’s return to play also helps the Penn State grad, by freeing up the seam and drawing attention in the red zone. The Colts will have no answers for this passing game, with the lion’s share of volume going to Godwin.

DEVONTA SMITH: @ NY GIANTS ($6,400)***

The Slim Reaper has been everything his nickname implies this season. Even with the Birds’ new emphasis on the physical running game, Smith has been the bread winner in the passing game. His elite route running has given Jalen Hurts more than enough space to fit the ball into. Smitty has also shown off a surprising penchant for making spectacular catches, which is the cherry on top for DFS.

DJ MOORE: @ MIAMI ($6,200)

Any time I can get an elite receiver down here in this bracket, I’m going to smash it. Cam Newton puts a ton of stress on opposing defenses as a dual threat. Christian McCaffrey returning adds another behemoth assignment to the front seven. As we saw last week, this frees up Moore to use his elite athleticism to make space plays all over the field in Joe Brady’s offense. Miami has no chance this week.

BRANDIN COOKS: VS NY JETS ($5,800)

Once again, I am returning to the underpriced Brandin Cooks well. I am wishing for another 10-target game against a dreadful Jets’ defense. I’ll get it this week, at an even greater value than before. As the attention draws to other games, I’ll also be stacking this game for its shootout potential.

ELIJAH MOORE: @ HOUSTON ($5,600)

Moore has gone from an exciting rookie GPP pick to an NFL alpha receiver in the matter of four weeks. As the alpha, you shouldn’t worry about the re-insertion of Zach Wilson at quarterback. There isn’t a lot more than bad timing that explains why Moore wasn’t as much of a factor with Wilson at the helm. This pair will be dropping bombs for years to come.

TEE HIGGINS: VS PITTSBURGH ($5,400)

Just like DK’s pricing algorithm finally came around on D’Andre Swift, they are taking their time putting some respect on Tee Higgins’ name. No bother to me. The target volume has been immense to match the Clemson product’s talent. Sometimes, residing in a teammate’s shadow is a great thing for DFS.

BRANDON AIYUK: VS MINNESOTA ($5,300)

While you were sleeping on the East Coast, the 49ers have been shifting their offensive balance of power. With Aiyuk sneaking out of the Shanahan doghouse, plus the healthy return of George Kittle, San Francisco is scheming running back work to keep Deebo Samuel involved. The passing is spread out, which has freed up the more talented receiver (Aiyuk) to make big plays like last season. The Vikings can’t stop anyone, so I’ll take this value and run.

ODELL BECKHAM JR: @ GREEN BAY ($5,000)

OBJ in cash? Yeah, it has been established that I’m insane. What is also established is that you can generally trust Sean McVay this season. He stated earlier this week that Beckham would be a “huge factor” in this week’s game plan. With the dearth of receiving talent around he and Cooper Kupp in the wake of Woods’ injury, I will lean on this offense because the price is definitely right.

LAVISKA SHENAULT JR: VS ATLANTA ($4,400)

It’s been a bumpy road to say the least for Viska truthers like myself. The injury bug has plagued this Jags receiving corps another time, placing Shenault right back into the slash role he should have had from the beginning. There have also been statements about him lining up as a running back like Deebo Samuel. It might be 12 weeks too late for season-long fantasy, but for DFS, it’s a screaming value.

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 31: Stephon Gilmore #9 of the Carolina Panthers defends against Kyle Pitts #8 of the Atlanta Falcons during the game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

Tight Ends

GEORGE KITTLE: VS MINNESOTA ($6,400)

This isn’t spending up. This is a nice price for a tight end with 30-point upside against the lowly Vikings. Don’t overthink it. If you have the salary, punch it in.

KYLE PITTS: @ JACKSONVILLE ($6,100)***

You didn’t think he would disappear, did you? Pitts is back on the map this week, after a couple brutal matchups. Matt Ryan is the catalyst. He shouldn’t look too terrible against a bad Jags’ defense. Pitts will find the end zone this week and crack 100 receiving yards.

NOAH FANT: VS LA CHARGERS ($4,600)

The Chargers funnel everything to the middle of the field on defense. This is why they are very tough against wide receivers, but bad against the run and against the tight end position. Fant is on the verge of a massive game. I’d bet he’s ready for it to be this one.

DAN ARNOLD: VS ATLANTA ($4,000)

A cash play with zero targets last week? Yes, I correctly faded Arnold last week, but now we’re back because it’s the Falcons and they don’t really have many other options to throw to anymore. It was a weird donut, but tight ends have those on occasion.

RYAN GRIFFIN: @ HOUSTON ($2,600)

I don’t usually punt tight end if I can help it for cash, but this is a prime example of DK simply not paying attention to the Jets’ passing game. Griffin is a reliable threat with steady volume. The return of Zach Wilson makes this even better.

Clash of the Mashed Potatoes and Gravy

Full of Gratitude

I met Scott Simpson on Twitter in the Spring of 2020. When we were invited to the same Sleeper dynasty league, I’m sure he knew pretty early on that I wasn’t going to let up on the trash talk. We have shared some amazing conversations and DFS victories. My “internet friend” is now like a brother to me.

I am thankful for his friendship. I am grateful for all that we have accomplished and excited for what we will accomplish in the future. With all the obligatory niceties on the record, I’m still a fierce competitor. I also have an acute memory of painful losses.

Last Thanksgiving, I was riding high. Nimble was in the dumps and sick of losing to me in the DFS ThunderDome (much like in the Clash right now). He rode Antonio Gibson’s massive game against the Cowboys to his own resounding victory over me. I know he reveres that victory; it was a thorough beatdown. The last thing I want is for him to think he can relive his Turkey Day triumph. I also remember the at losing in that fashion pissed me off to the extent that I didn’t lose to him again until the Super Bowl.

Here is my Thanksgiving Day slate lineup, specially brined and roasted for my dear friend. He is the mashed potatoes to my gravy, but I hope he’s saving room for some humble pie with extra whip.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders – $5,900

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 21: Derek Carr #4 of the Las Vegas Raiders fumbles while being sacked by Trey Hendrickson #91 of the Cincinnati Bengals at Allegiant Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Carr and the Raiders have been coming apart at the seams on offense since the release of Henry Ruggs. They now lack the type of deep threat that forces the defense to overcompensate. Carr has also fallen back into the old habit of hesitating to make the right throw and holding the ball too long before ultimately making a bad decision. I think there’s plenty of upside against the Cowboys, especially in the middle of the field. Carr’s salary is simply too low to ignore.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $6,000

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – NOVEMBER 21: David Montgomery #32 of the Chicago Bears runs with the ball against the Baltimore Ravens at Soldier Field on November 21, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

I see a stage…and I see a drummer. The stage is a super-early kickoff against a dreadful run defense. The drummer is Monty, who is one of the hardest-working players in the league (on and off the field). It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Monty get 30 touches in Matt Nagy’s lame-duck game, which portends to a bonanza of fantasy points.

RB – Jamaal Williams – Detroit Lions – $4,000

I had a huge double-take on this salary. Everyone forgot about how effective Williams has been this season as a tandem back to Deandre Swift before his injury. He came back to seven carries last week and should easily pay off at the minimum price against the Bears.

WR – Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills – $7,900

Diggs is a target monster, regardless of who the Bills are facing. He is the most targeted player in the NFL against man coverage. The Saints use man coverage the seventh-most of any team in the league. If Devonta Smith can get open against Marshon Lattimore, I would expect Diggs to light up his Christmas tree, even if it’s premature for the season.

WR – Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears – $5,700

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – NOVEMBER 21: Darnell Mooney #11 of the Chicago Bears attempts to catch a pass in the game against the Baltimore Ravens during the third quarter at Soldier Field on November 21, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

You cannot ignore a player under $6k who garnered 16 targets the week before. In typical Bears fashion, only a third were completed. One of those completions happened to be a well-blocked bubble screen that Mooney used to showcase his elusiveness and breathtaking speed. You might have heard about how terrible the Lions are at covering fast receivers, in which case you already know where I’m going with this.

WR – Cedrick Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $3,500

This play has everything to do with the absence of Amari Cooper, not CeeDee Lamb. Without their stud X receiver garnering all the coverage attention in the second half, even Wilson wasn’t able to find much open space from the slot last week. If CeeDee is activated from concussion protocol, Ced will be much more than a value dart throw.

TE – Darren Waller – Las Vegas Raiders – $6,400

It’s quite simple: Waller is a stud and the Cowboys can’t cover him. There’s a stack in it for me to boot. The key to Vegas’ offense getting back into their flow will be the ability for Carr to pepper Waller with targets like he did in Week 1. Waller’s ability after the catch also has a big opportunity to be showcased against a Dallas secondary that hasn’t tackled well this year.

FLEX – Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys – $8,000

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – NOVEMBER 21: Juan Thornhill #22 of the Kansas City Chiefs trips up Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter of the game at Arrowhead Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Some of the best vintage Zeke performances have come on Turkey Day (remember him jumping in the giant Salvation Army kettle?). He has a knee contusion that appeared to be pretty painful on Sunday, but he has practiced in full leading up to Thursday. Dallas was embarrassed against the Chiefs when they couldn’t establish the physical run game and left a flat Dak Prescott to run for his life with Chris Jones on the loose. Both Dallas running backs are in play here, but I’ll take the touchdown upside and volume.

DST – Las Vegas Raiders – $2,400

I was a double-sided shit coin that I flipped for the two defenses I could afford here. It was either these Raiders or the Lions. Detroit is so bad that even Andy Dalton could light them up, so at least I can hope Vegas can put some pressure on Dak and score some fantasy points. Not proud of it, but it unlocked some great players.

Turkey Bowl Szn

It’s Turkey Bowl Szn!! The most wonderful time of the DFS year. I’ve written exclusively all about my previous Turkey Day exploits here at NimblewNumbers.com. I love Thanksgiving so much! A full day of football and food, in the middle of the week, DFS, on a day off from work…is this heaven?! If not, it’s pretty damn close. If we could pull off a Billy Murray/Ground Hog Day scenario, I would relive Thanksgiving every day forever and ever.

Bo might not feel the same way. Go back and reread his intro. This time, read between the lines and you can hear just how badly I ruined his Thanksgiving last year. I’m sure the feast he consumed was through uncried tears of anguish seeing his beloved “Boys” and his DFS lineups get bludgeoned by Antonio Gibson. Another feather in my Thanksgiving cap, adding to the myth, lore, and legend surrounding my Turkey day holiday triumphs.

I love Bo and am genuinely grateful for our friendship. It means the world to me that I, out of all the people in the world, get to ruin his Thanksgiving. It’s a real privilege, my friend. I know you would do the same for me if you could. Instead, sit back with your favorite whiskey and cry those silent tears knowing that this year I’m thankful for you brother.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills – $7,800

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills is tackled short of the first down marker on third down by safety Amani Hooker #37 of the Tennessee Titans during fourth quarter at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Josh Allen and the Bills got crushed last week by the Colts, 41-15. Josh Allen still scored 18.2 DraftKings points, despite his horrible performance. This week Allen will rebound against a Saints defense that was just bludged by the Eagles on Sunday, giving up 40 points and over 250 yards rushing. Jalen Hurts rushed for 69 of those yards, meaning that Allen can exploit the Saints on the ground. Allen should be able to move the ball against the Saints through the air as well. Their secondary has given up 1800 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns to wide receivers, good for 24th best in the NFL.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $6,000

David Montgomery is the best running back value on the slate this week. The Lions are one of the worst tackling teams according to PFF. Monty specializes in breaking tackles. The Lions also rank 30th against running backs giving up close to 1,500 total yards and 17 total touchdowns. There’s a great chance for a touchdown from Monty this week. I’m sure that’s why Bo has him in his lineup as well.

RB – D’Andre Swift – Detroit Lions – $7,300

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – NOVEMBER 14: D’Andre Swift #32 of the Detroit Lions carries the ball during a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field on November 14, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

D’Andre Swift is quietly having a tremendous 2021, scoring the fifth-most DraftKings points for running backs, and averaging 19.2 points per game. This week he’s priced $700 less than Zeke, who is nursing a knee and an ankle injury. Jamaal Williams is back, but I’m not worried about Swift. He’s leading all NFL running backs in targets and receptions and is second in receiving yards.

WR – Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills – $7,900

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 21: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills and Rock Ya-Sin #26 of the Indianapolis Colts during the game at Highmark Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Kevin Hoffman/Getty Images)

Stefon Diggs is seeing nine targets per game over the last five games and is averaging 20.6 DraftKings points. Diggs has seen the end zone in back-to-back games and has the highest ceiling of any wide receiver on the Thanksgiving slate. Bo rostering him makes all the sense in the world.

WR – Darnell Mooney  – Chicago Bears – $5,700

Darnell Mooney is way too cheap! I knew immediately that Bo would have him on his squad. He’s been in love with Mooney ever since he read about his upside in this year’s WR2 Theory. Mooney has been lacking consistency at the quarterback position. Enter Andy Dalton, filling in for an injured Justin Fields filling in for an injured Andy Dalton. Either way, there should be opportunities for Mooney who saw 16 targets last week.

WR –  Cedric Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $3,500

CeeDee Lamb might just end up playing tomorrow. This is great news for the Cowboys, but it does put a damper on Wilson’s value. If Lamb is OUT, on the other hand, there’s a tremendous opportunity to be had at close to min price. The only disappointment was finding out that Bo was thinking similarly and also rostered Wilson.

TE – Juwan Johnson – New Orleans Saints – $2,600

Finally, a play that Bo does not have. With Adam Trautman out for this game, Juwan Johnson finds himself as the starting move tight end this Turkey day. This is more of a GPP play, but I need all the tricks up my sleeve to beat Bo this week.

Flex – Darren Waller – Las Vegas Raiders – $6,400

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 14: Darren Waller #83 of the Las Vegas Raiders runs down the field during the first quarter in the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)

Darren Waller is averaging nine targets a game and 12 yards a reception. These are wide receiver numbers and I’m cool with that. He’s the number one target for Derek Carr in a matchup that the Raiders are predicted to be trailing in. He has the highest ceiling of any tight end on the Turkey Day slate. No brainer that Bo has him on his squad.

DST – Las Vegas Raiders – $2,400

The Raiders are facing a banged-up Cowboys team that is missing Amari Cooper and possibly CeeDee Lamb. Ezekiel Elliott is nursing injuries and the offense looks out of sync. According to PFF, the Raiders defensive line, led by Max Crosby, has a 39% advantage over Dallas’ offensive line. Look for Dak to be scrambling and for him to have at least one turnover this week.