Nimble w/Numbers

Clash of the Mashed Potatoes and Gravy

Full of Gratitude

I met Scott Simpson on Twitter in the Spring of 2020. When we were invited to the same Sleeper dynasty league, I’m sure he knew pretty early on that I wasn’t going to let up on the trash talk. We have shared some amazing conversations and DFS victories. My “internet friend” is now like a brother to me.

I am thankful for his friendship. I am grateful for all that we have accomplished and excited for what we will accomplish in the future. With all the obligatory niceties on the record, I’m still a fierce competitor. I also have an acute memory of painful losses.

Last Thanksgiving, I was riding high. Nimble was in the dumps and sick of losing to me in the DFS ThunderDome (much like in the Clash right now). He rode Antonio Gibson’s massive game against the Cowboys to his own resounding victory over me. I know he reveres that victory; it was a thorough beatdown. The last thing I want is for him to think he can relive his Turkey Day triumph. I also remember the at losing in that fashion pissed me off to the extent that I didn’t lose to him again until the Super Bowl.

Here is my Thanksgiving Day slate lineup, specially brined and roasted for my dear friend. He is the mashed potatoes to my gravy, but I hope he’s saving room for some humble pie with extra whip.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders – $5,900

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 21: Derek Carr #4 of the Las Vegas Raiders fumbles while being sacked by Trey Hendrickson #91 of the Cincinnati Bengals at Allegiant Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Carr and the Raiders have been coming apart at the seams on offense since the release of Henry Ruggs. They now lack the type of deep threat that forces the defense to overcompensate. Carr has also fallen back into the old habit of hesitating to make the right throw and holding the ball too long before ultimately making a bad decision. I think there’s plenty of upside against the Cowboys, especially in the middle of the field. Carr’s salary is simply too low to ignore.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $6,000

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – NOVEMBER 21: David Montgomery #32 of the Chicago Bears runs with the ball against the Baltimore Ravens at Soldier Field on November 21, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

I see a stage…and I see a drummer. The stage is a super-early kickoff against a dreadful run defense. The drummer is Monty, who is one of the hardest-working players in the league (on and off the field). It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Monty get 30 touches in Matt Nagy’s lame-duck game, which portends to a bonanza of fantasy points.

RB – Jamaal Williams – Detroit Lions – $4,000

I had a huge double-take on this salary. Everyone forgot about how effective Williams has been this season as a tandem back to Deandre Swift before his injury. He came back to seven carries last week and should easily pay off at the minimum price against the Bears.

WR – Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills – $7,900

Diggs is a target monster, regardless of who the Bills are facing. He is the most targeted player in the NFL against man coverage. The Saints use man coverage the seventh-most of any team in the league. If Devonta Smith can get open against Marshon Lattimore, I would expect Diggs to light up his Christmas tree, even if it’s premature for the season.

WR – Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears – $5,700

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – NOVEMBER 21: Darnell Mooney #11 of the Chicago Bears attempts to catch a pass in the game against the Baltimore Ravens during the third quarter at Soldier Field on November 21, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

You cannot ignore a player under $6k who garnered 16 targets the week before. In typical Bears fashion, only a third were completed. One of those completions happened to be a well-blocked bubble screen that Mooney used to showcase his elusiveness and breathtaking speed. You might have heard about how terrible the Lions are at covering fast receivers, in which case you already know where I’m going with this.

WR – Cedrick Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $3,500

This play has everything to do with the absence of Amari Cooper, not CeeDee Lamb. Without their stud X receiver garnering all the coverage attention in the second half, even Wilson wasn’t able to find much open space from the slot last week. If CeeDee is activated from concussion protocol, Ced will be much more than a value dart throw.

TE – Darren Waller – Las Vegas Raiders – $6,400

It’s quite simple: Waller is a stud and the Cowboys can’t cover him. There’s a stack in it for me to boot. The key to Vegas’ offense getting back into their flow will be the ability for Carr to pepper Waller with targets like he did in Week 1. Waller’s ability after the catch also has a big opportunity to be showcased against a Dallas secondary that hasn’t tackled well this year.

FLEX – Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys – $8,000

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – NOVEMBER 21: Juan Thornhill #22 of the Kansas City Chiefs trips up Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter of the game at Arrowhead Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Some of the best vintage Zeke performances have come on Turkey Day (remember him jumping in the giant Salvation Army kettle?). He has a knee contusion that appeared to be pretty painful on Sunday, but he has practiced in full leading up to Thursday. Dallas was embarrassed against the Chiefs when they couldn’t establish the physical run game and left a flat Dak Prescott to run for his life with Chris Jones on the loose. Both Dallas running backs are in play here, but I’ll take the touchdown upside and volume.

DST – Las Vegas Raiders – $2,400

I was a double-sided shit coin that I flipped for the two defenses I could afford here. It was either these Raiders or the Lions. Detroit is so bad that even Andy Dalton could light them up, so at least I can hope Vegas can put some pressure on Dak and score some fantasy points. Not proud of it, but it unlocked some great players.

Turkey Bowl Szn

It’s Turkey Bowl Szn!! The most wonderful time of the DFS year. I’ve written exclusively all about my previous Turkey Day exploits here at NimblewNumbers.com. I love Thanksgiving so much! A full day of football and food, in the middle of the week, DFS, on a day off from work…is this heaven?! If not, it’s pretty damn close. If we could pull off a Billy Murray/Ground Hog Day scenario, I would relive Thanksgiving every day forever and ever.

Bo might not feel the same way. Go back and reread his intro. This time, read between the lines and you can hear just how badly I ruined his Thanksgiving last year. I’m sure the feast he consumed was through uncried tears of anguish seeing his beloved “Boys” and his DFS lineups get bludgeoned by Antonio Gibson. Another feather in my Thanksgiving cap, adding to the myth, lore, and legend surrounding my Turkey day holiday triumphs.

I love Bo and am genuinely grateful for our friendship. It means the world to me that I, out of all the people in the world, get to ruin his Thanksgiving. It’s a real privilege, my friend. I know you would do the same for me if you could. Instead, sit back with your favorite whiskey and cry those silent tears knowing that this year I’m thankful for you brother.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills – $7,800

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills is tackled short of the first down marker on third down by safety Amani Hooker #37 of the Tennessee Titans during fourth quarter at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Josh Allen and the Bills got crushed last week by the Colts, 41-15. Josh Allen still scored 18.2 DraftKings points, despite his horrible performance. This week Allen will rebound against a Saints defense that was just bludged by the Eagles on Sunday, giving up 40 points and over 250 yards rushing. Jalen Hurts rushed for 69 of those yards, meaning that Allen can exploit the Saints on the ground. Allen should be able to move the ball against the Saints through the air as well. Their secondary has given up 1800 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns to wide receivers, good for 24th best in the NFL.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $6,000

David Montgomery is the best running back value on the slate this week. The Lions are one of the worst tackling teams according to PFF. Monty specializes in breaking tackles. The Lions also rank 30th against running backs giving up close to 1,500 total yards and 17 total touchdowns. There’s a great chance for a touchdown from Monty this week. I’m sure that’s why Bo has him in his lineup as well.

RB – D’Andre Swift – Detroit Lions – $7,300

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – NOVEMBER 14: D’Andre Swift #32 of the Detroit Lions carries the ball during a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field on November 14, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

D’Andre Swift is quietly having a tremendous 2021, scoring the fifth-most DraftKings points for running backs, and averaging 19.2 points per game. This week he’s priced $700 less than Zeke, who is nursing a knee and an ankle injury. Jamaal Williams is back, but I’m not worried about Swift. He’s leading all NFL running backs in targets and receptions and is second in receiving yards.

WR – Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills – $7,900

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 21: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills and Rock Ya-Sin #26 of the Indianapolis Colts during the game at Highmark Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Kevin Hoffman/Getty Images)

Stefon Diggs is seeing nine targets per game over the last five games and is averaging 20.6 DraftKings points. Diggs has seen the end zone in back-to-back games and has the highest ceiling of any wide receiver on the Thanksgiving slate. Bo rostering him makes all the sense in the world.

WR – Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears – $5,700

Darnell Mooney is way too cheap! I knew immediately that Bo would have him on his squad. He’s been in love with Mooney ever since he read about his upside in this year’s WR2 Theory. Mooney has been lacking consistency at the quarterback position. Enter Andy Dalton, filling in for an injured Justin Fields filling in for an injured Andy Dalton. Either way, there should be opportunities for Mooney who saw 16 targets last week.

WR – Cedric Wilson – Dallas Cowboys – $3,500

CeeDee Lamb might just end up playing tomorrow. This is great news for the Cowboys, but it does put a damper on Wilson’s value. If Lamb is OUT, on the other hand, there’s a tremendous opportunity to be had at close to min price. The only disappointment was finding out that Bo was thinking similarly and also rostered Wilson.

TE – Juwan Johnson – New Orleans Saints – $2,600

Finally, a play that Bo does not have. With Adam Trautman out for this game, Juwan Johnson finds himself as the starting move tight end this Turkey day. This is more of a GPP play, but I need all the tricks up my sleeve to beat Bo this week.

Flex – Darren Waller – Las Vegas Raiders – $6,400

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 14: Darren Waller #83 of the Las Vegas Raiders runs down the field during the first quarter in the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)

Darren Waller is averaging nine targets a game and 12 yards a reception. These are wide receiver numbers and I’m cool with that. He’s the number one target for Derek Carr in a matchup that the Raiders are predicted to be trailing in. He has the highest ceiling of any tight end on the Turkey Day slate. No brainer that Bo has him on his squad.

DST – Las Vegas Raiders – $2,400

The Raiders are facing a banged-up Cowboys team that is missing Amari Cooper and possibly CeeDee Lamb. Ezekiel Elliott is nursing injuries and the offense looks out of sync. According to PFF, the Raiders defensive line, led by Max Crosby, has a 39% advantage over Dallas’ offensive line. Look for Dak to be scrambling and for him to have at least one turnover this week.

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

I’m not that happy that I beat Simpson last week. We were both on the struggle bus with our lineups. I guess I only won because of the sunset on his lineup three hours earlier on the east coast. Don’t get me wrong, I loooooove taking my obligatory victory lap on social media, even if it’s the DFS equivalent of an infield single looking like a line drive in the box score.

Scott undoubtedly doesn’t want me to go all Phil Jackson and watch the hearty celebration that will accompany my second three-peat of the season, but he might not have a choice. My lineup is inevitable. With the snap of my finger on Tuesday, I built this lineup to aggressively chase a 200-point walloping to bring my series lead to 7-4. Sometimes, I play it conservative (like last week) and needlessly sweat out a narrow margin. Come Sunday, my lineup will either launch into the stratosphere or you’ll see me saluting as I go down with the sinking ship. Sharp bettors are slamming the former.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys– $7,200

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 14: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his rushing touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at AT&T Stadium on November 14, 2021, in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

I couldn’t, in good conscience, not get a few pieces of the most important game of the year for my Dallas Cowboys. The Chiefs are riding high at the moment after three consecutive wins over hapless offenses. Dak Prescott is missing one weapon in Amari Cooper, but there’s a half dozen more right behind him who is ready to pick up his rifle and start shanking fools with their bayonet. Dak will be the highest-scoring quarterback on the slate.

RB – James Conner – Arizona Cardinals – $6,100

I officially renounced my distaste for James Conner as a running back a couple weeks ago. He looks better now than at any point since his rookie year. The sheer volume of quality touches for Conner is my favorite part about this game. Seattle has an atrocious run defense, especially against backs who can catch balls out of the backfield (see Alvin Kamara game). This is a wonderful value play with immense ceiling potential.

RB – Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins – $5,700

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 11: Jacoby Brissett #14 hands the ball off to Myles Gaskin #37 of the Miami Dolphins during the first quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Hard Rock Stadium on November 11, 2021, in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)

I still haven’t retracted my opinion that Gaskin has no earthly business leading an NFL backfield, but here we are. The odd-numbered week narrative is guaranteed to persist this week against the Jets, who have allowed 39 PPR points per game to opposing running backs. Gaskin isn’t good, but he will be scoring points this Sunday.

WR – Nico Collins – Houston Texans – $3,300

As I laid out in my Hot Cash article, I’m fully prepared to be wrong about Collins. The rookie from Michigan has been the picture of consistency in his limited work, making huge strides in improving the technique that I criticized in the preseason. The Titans have a very bad secondary, only masking it with a vigorous ball control offense. Tyrod Taylor is in line for a serviceable game, with the young Wolverine potentially breaking out.

WR – Tyree Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $8,200

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 14: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs walks off the field after a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on November 14, 2021, in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

The NFL’s target leader the last four weeks is Cheetah, who has assumed a much more diverse route tree in response to changes in coverage schemes to corral his ability to render the defense topless. Hill is ultra-elite after the catch and the Cowboys’ secondary hasn’t exactly demonstrated sound tackling or pursuit angles. I’m afraid of what Mahomes and Hill are capable of doing to this defense.

WR – CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys – $7,600

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 22: CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates with teammate Michael Gallup #13 following a touchdown reception during their game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 22, 2020, in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

I built this stack even before Amari Cooper was added to the COVID list. Now, it’s looking like a delicious Scott killer. CeeDee has been an alpha all season, obviously stepping up to be Dak’s preferred weapon of war. The Chiefs have been blessed with three consecutive opponents with differing levels of passing anemia, but they’re in for the rudest awakening possible.

TE – Dalton Schultz – Dallas Cowboys – $4,600

I thought long and hard about going with Michael Gallup here, but there is some uncertainty of which position he will play in Cooper’s absence. The Chiefs have been a sieve to opposing tight ends, where Schultz has often been the second passing option in Kellen Moore’s offense. There’s plenty of meat on the bone to go with any Cowboys offensive player this week.

FLEX – Elijah Moore – New York Jets – $4,900

If you have been following along with the Nimble team since the preseason, you know that Scott and I are enamored with the rookie out of Mississippi. We fought over Elijah like siblings in multiple drafts. We also called one another like teenage girls in the 90s when he had his breakout game against the Colts. Miami’s defense stinks worse than Joe Flacco. At least the grisly (and handsome) vet can find the open man. Moore will be that guy all day long on Sunday.

DST – Washington Football Team – $2,400

I’m very conflicted about this pick. On one hand, I think Cam Newton will be a fantasy force in this Joe Brady offense. On the other hand, Washington showed some real moxie in defeating the GOAT’s Bucs and ruining my DFS hopes last week. At this salary, I’m hoping for a few sacks and for Superman to show some rust now that HE’S BAAAAACK!

Studs Up!!

I cannot let myself lose to Bo three straight weeks, especially heading into Thanksgiving week. This week I loaded up my squad with studs who are projected to ball out, running over Bo with my three running back build. I’m absolutely thrilled to have CMC all to myself, A.J. Dillon as well. David Montgomery was weaponized against me last season, I’m excited to return the favor. This is going to be one of my best teams of the Clash, hope you bring your best lineup this week Bo.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers – $5,100

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 14: Quarterback Cam Newton #1 of the Carolina Panthers reacts during the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on November 14, 2021, in Glendale, Arizona. The Panthers defeated the Cardinals 34-10. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Cam Newton is too cheap to pass up this week at $5,100. He’s not the best quarterback play on the slate, but his points per dollar value is through the roof. I wanted to build a lineup with three high-scorings running backs and Cam lets me do just that. I also

RB – A.J. Dillon – Green Bay Packers – $6,200

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 14: A.J. Dillon #28 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates with fans after scoring a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field on November 14, 2021, in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $5,500

David Montgomery’s $5,500 price is ridiculously low this week. I for one love playing him as a one-off or using him as the run-back piece in the Lamar Jackson game stack. Montgomery saw 84% of the snaps in his return to action against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now David Montgomery is rested and has a 30% run blocking advantage according to PFF. The Ravens are giving up 25 fantasy points per game to running backs and rank in the bottom third in tackling. Montgomery is known for his ability to break tackles. It could be a long day for the Ravens and a good day for you if you roll with Monty.

WR – Rashod Bateman – Baltimore Ravens – $4,500

Rashod Bateman didn’t look like a rookie last week, hauling in six of eight targets for 80 yards. Bateman saw five more targets than Sammy Watkins, who was returning from injury. The Ravens will be able to pass on the Bears, who have given up over 1,600 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns to wide receivers. Marquise Brown is also a strong play in this game, glad Bo didn’t leverage me this week.

WR – Brandin Cooks – Houston Texans – $6,000

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 07: Brandin Cooks #13 of the Houston Texans in action against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on November 07, 2021, in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

Brandin Cooks saw 14 targets in his last game from Tyrod Taylor. Cooks also has games of 11, 13, and 14 targets this year. The Titans rank 32nd against wide receivers, giving up 45 plus points per game. Cooks is projected 8-10 targets and should score a touchdown this week.

WR – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $8,200

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 13: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after his third-quarter touchdown reception against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on October 13, 2019, in Kansas City, Missouri. Hill had two touchdown receptions in the game. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous man on the DraftKings slate. He has 40 and 50 point performances this season. No shocker, Bo has this play as well. Whenever I make a power move, Bo is there. If anything, the guy is one of the best plays each week. We both agree that Hill has tremendous upside and should see 10-12 targets in this shootout.

TE – C.J. Uzomah – Cinncinati Bengals – $3,500

C.J. Uzomah has been hit or miss this season, scoring 24 and 26 points, but also seven and six. The Raiders game has the second-highest total on the board with 50 points up for grabs. Joe Burrow has passed for over 30 attempts in six of nine games. This game script should see Uzomah in play all game long. A touchdown would just destroy Bo. Fingers crossed.

Flex – Christian McCaffery – Carolina Panthers – $8,900

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 14: Quarterback Cam Newton #1 of the Carolina Panthers talks with Christian McCaffrey #22 during the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on November 14, 2021, in Glendale, Arizona. The Panthers defeated the Cardinals 34-10. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Christian McCaffery is back!! Last week he amassed 156 yards and scored 26.1 points without the 100 rushing bonus or scoring a touchdown. The Washington Football Team is down Chase Young and Montez Sweat in this matchup, great news for CMC and his point total potential. He has the highest ceiling this week according to RunTheSims.com.

DST – Detroit Lions – $2,100

This is a pure pay-down play. The Lions are a young and hungry defense, who sucks. I just needed the money to get to CMC. The End.

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 11! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon. All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – $7,200

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are currently +2.5 road underdogs in their game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The 56.5 total means that Dak will be most likely chucking it on Sunday. Last week Dak scored over 26 points in a game that was over at halftime. Stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb ($7,600) and either Amari Cooper or Michael Gallup makes sense if you are looking to maximize your leverage in larger field GPP tournaments. Sal Verti currently has Lamb for under 7% rostership, which means that people are afraid to pay up for him.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders – $5,900

The Bengals vs. Raiders 50 team total is quietly the second-largest team total for Week 11. Both offenses are better than their defenses. The Bengals give up close to 37 fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Hunter Renfrow ($5,800) and Darren Waller ($6,100) both have favorable matchups and should be used heavily in this back and forth game script. Stacking Carr with either or both makes sense given their relatively low costs.

Value – Quarterback

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers – $5,100

Cam Newton is back in Carolina!! What a week to be back as the starter as the Panthers welcome back ex-head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington Football Team. The revenge narrative aside, Cam has a juicy matchup against a WFT defense that was already ranked 32nd in points against the quarterback and will be without you stars Chase Young and Montz Sweat this week. Cam’s rushing upside was on display last week when he rushed for one score and set up another. I love Cam at his $5,100 price tag and will be playing him naked or stacked with CMC for only $14,000.

High Priced – Running Back

Christian McCaffery, Carolina Panthers – $8,900

Speaking of Christian McCaffery, he’s back too!! Last week CMC scored 26.1 points without rushing for 100 yards or scoring a touchdown. Don’t overthink this one. Despite the low game total (43.5), I trust McCaffery in this matchup to score 25 points. With a ceiling closer to 37 points, I’ll pay up for CMC this week in small to mid-sized GPP field tournaments.

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Mid-Range – Running Back

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers – $6,200

A.J. Dillon is my favorite play on the DraftKings Week 11 main slate. Aaron Jones is OUT for Week 11, which means “All Day Dillon” is about to be unleashed on the league. RunTheSims.com has Dillon projected for 23 points in his matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. He’s currently running an 18% optimal rate and the secret looks to be out. Dillon is currently projected to be rostered in close to 30% of builds. I’m fine eating the chalk, just make sure that you diversify elsewhere in larger GPP contests.

Value – Running Back

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears – $5,500

High Priced – Wide Receiver

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – $8,400

According to PFF, Davante Adams has the second-best cornerback matchup for Week 11. Great news for Aaron Rodgers and for everyone who pays $8,400 for Adams. One of my favorite ways to roll Adams out is in a game stack with A.J. Dillon and Dalvin Cook as the run-back. In this build, I am banking on the Packers’ offense being concentrated on Adams and Dillon, Rodgers’s two best players. Running it back with Dalvin makes the most sense given the game script and leverage it gives you over the field.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – $6,000

Brandin Cooks has games of 11,13, 14, and 14 targets this season. Tyrod Taylor should be targeting him early and often this week against a Tennessee Titans secondary that ranks 32nd against wide receivers, giving up over 46 points per game. The Texans should be trailing in their matchup against the Titans and Cooks should see 8-10 targets as they scramble to keep up. I’m comfortable loading Cooks into all my GPP builds, no matter the tournament or field.

Value – Wide Receiver

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys – $4,200

Last week Michael Gallup returned and saw more targets than an ailing Amari Cooper, scoring 7.2 points. This week he is still priced down in the 4K range making him a great value dart throw in GPP tournaments. I will be primarily stacking him with Dak Prescott in Cowboy/Chief games stacks as the second wide receiver option. I’m comfortable playing Gallup as a one-off at his $4,200 price as well.

High Priced – Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $6,300

SANTA CLARA, CA – NOVEMBER 15: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers makes an 8-yard touchdown catch during the game against the Los Angeles Rams at Levi’s Stadium on November 15, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Rams 31-10. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

It’s so great to have George Kittle back!! In the last two weeks, he’s scored 24 and 16 points respectively. He’s seen 15 targets, amassed 151 receiving yards, and has scored twice. This week Kittle is facing a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that hasn’t been terrible against tight ends, but they haven’t faced any as good as Kittle either. PFF has Kittle with a 32% advantage over Jags’ linebacker Damien Wilson. I expect Jimmy G. to continue to target Kittle, particularly in the red zone. I’m comfortable paying up for Kittle and at under 6% projected rostership, he’s leverage over Kelce and Waller.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – $4,000

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: Dawson Knox #88 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball in for a touchdown that is called back by a penalty during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Bills 34-31. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Dawson Knox returned to action last week after missing a few games recovering from a broken hand. He caught his only target for 17 yards. This week, he’s priced down $500. Take the discount and play Knox this week. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley missed practice this week nursing their own injuries. The Indianapolis Colts rank 27th against tight ends, giving up over 16 points per game. Knox is picking up less than 1.2% rostership, you know what to do. Smash.

Value – Tight End

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears – $3,400

Don’t look now, but Justin Fields might have a new favorite target and it’s Cole Kmet. The last time they took the field together in Week 9, Kmet was splashing against a formidable Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense for six receptions and 87 yards. The Baltimore Ravens print money to the tight end position, giving up over 17 points per game. I love Kmet as a punt tight end this week in larger GPP field tournaments.

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Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Totally Hooked

Addiction runs in my family. Self-discipline does not. The preferred crutch has been alcohol, for the most part. I have been able to steer clear from letting booze control my life the way it did with my grandfather and father for most of their adult lives. I’m a nail biter. I drink way too much coffee. I will gamble on just about anything. The list of my vices goes on like a laundry list, but to this point I have been fortunate to avoid the ones that can ruin my life.

Some things, like DFS, actually bring me incredible enjoyment. I’m hooked to the sweating and tilting and I cannot get enough. I’ve spent the past few years chasing the dragon that is taking down a big tournament. I’ve had some really big wins over the years, but haven’t actually finished first in any GPP since 2019. I play cash games to snowball my DFS bankroll. It’s a very effective way to get more of those high-volatility lottery tickets. I’ve outright won seven large-field 50/50 games since my last tournament win.

It’s straight painful to build a “cash lineup” that ends up scoring enough points to win the tournament you built different lineups for. You’re left with a nice $100 off your $50 entry, but left wanting for the thousands you missed out on. My 2021 season has been a complete 180 degrees from last year. In 2020, I profited in cash games in all-but-three main slates, from Week 1 through the Super Bowl. It has been a struggle this season, pulling in at 50 percent. The process is sound, but the players I’m rostering simply haven’t been playing to expectation or have been injured during the game.

My bankroll hasn’t been snowballing, my gambling is ice cold. Ever the stubborn go-getter, I still have hope. Hope and potential get people fired, but I’ll keep playing because I won’t fire myself. There is still a large skill element to DFS and I have helped a lot of you wonderful consumers of my work win some impressive sums of money. That’s all I need to keep this going. Individual results will ebb and flow for eternity. I write for the smiles and grind tape and data to fortify my process each week for all of our lineups.

Now that we’ve gotten down and dirty with honesty and stories of getting humbled, lets dive in on Week 11. Everything I’ve seen so far this week points to me using my “chalky” cash lineups in tournaments as well. The chalk is going to smash on the main slate. These might be plays designed for 50/50s and head-to-heads, but I’d be stunned if they didn’t cross over as simply “good plays” across all contest types.

Week 11 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 11: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his touchdown reception against the New York Giants during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium on October 11, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

Quarterbacks

JOSH ALLEN: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($8,100)

The perfect passing funnel offense meets a worthy pass funnel defense in this AFC showdown. Buffalo doesn’t even pretend to establish the run, unless done so by their monolithic signal caller. Indy is much tougher up front than on the back end, so expect a ceiling game for Allen.

LAMAR JACKSON: @ CHICAGO ($8,000)

Jackson was bottled up last week, then battled an illness this week. He is still a dynamic playmaker with an unmatched rushing floor and ceiling. He also has a stud rookie receiver building up to a breakout performance against a putrid Chicago secondary.

PATRICK MAHOMES: VS DALLAS ($7,600)

We got a nice reminder last week that Mahomes is still elite. Granted, the Raiders thumbed their nose at the proven success of Cover-2 Shell against the Chiefs’ deep passing attack. They instead opted for Cover-3, which proved moronic with the athletic advantage on Kansas City’s side. Cover-3 is the preferred scheme for Dallas DC, Dan Quinn, but they have been wonderfully multiple this season. The Cowboys will have a hard time defending Mahomes in any case this week.

DAK PRESCOTT: @ KANSAS CITY ($7,200)***

I fully expect Kellen Moore and the Dallas offense to plan for this abhorrent Chiefs’ defense more successfully than the Raiders did. Even without Amari Cooper, Prescott will have a full stable of weaponry that will put at least 35 points on the board. Lock him in for 25 fantasy points on Sunday.

AARON RODGERS: @ MINNESOTA ($7,000)

Next to Dak, Rodgers is my favorite quarterback play for Week 11. He seems to always have big games in Minnesota, where the Vikings sport one of the league’s worst coverage units. It won’t just be Davante Adams, either. Rodgers will be dealing to a variety of receivers, leaving the Vikings with little recourse to slow them down.

RYAN TANNEHILL: VS HOUSTON ($6,700)

Interestingly, Tannehill’s efficiency as a passer has gone up since the Titans lost Derrick Henry to injury. They are running the ball just as frequently as before. Even with a no-name group of pass catchers around AJ Brown, Tannehill is still putting up good fantasy numbers. Houston won’t be the defense that stops that trend.

JOE BURROW: @ LAS VEGAS ($6,600)

In a GPP, the Bengals stack has been quite lucrative this season. For cash, we need to proceed with caution in games where Cincinnati is likely to use their advantage in the running game. This seems like a shootout type of game, so Burrow & Co will be chucking the ball early and often against a terrible Raiders’ secondary.

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – SEPTEMBER 12: Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Cleveland Browns hands off to running back Nick Chubb #24 during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Running Backs

DALVIN COOK: VS GREEN BAY ($8,200)

Much like Aaron Rodgers feasts on the Vikings, so does Dalvin Cook to the Packers. His volume of work will again see an uptick after another week away from the injury report. One thing we haven’t seen a lot of this season is target volume, which should change to exploit a glaring weakness in the Green Bay coverage.

NICK CHUBB: VS DETROIT ($7,800)***

Praise be, Chubb has been activated from the COVID list just in time for his most favorable matchup of the season. Detroit has been gashed relentlessly by opposing running backs and Chubb is averaging six yards per carry on the campaign.

JOE MIXON: @ LAS VEGAS ($7,600)

The post-bye blind spot blesses the Bengals this week, although Mixon is not coming at an extreme value. This is probably because he exceeded 25 points in his last two games. The Raiders were initially pretty decent at defending running backs this year, but have since been ripped apart in negative game scripts. The Bengals will roll in this one, with Mixon carrying a heavy load.

JAMES CONNER: @ SEATTLE ($6,100)

Somehow, the NFL’s leader in touchdowns is cheaper than he was in a less-favorable matchup last week. The Seahawks are atrocious at defending running backs and Conner is playing like an absolute beast this year. Look for him to command the goal line opportunities, even if Kyler Murray returns from his ankle injury.

MYLES GASKIN*: @ NY JETS ($5,700)

The most consistently inconsistent player in the NFL is Gaskin. He has scored in double-digits in every single odd-numbered week in 2021. Week 11 brings the Jets, who have allowed 39.8 PPR points per game to opposing running backs. They also are the worst in the NFL at allowing receiving yards to running backs, which is the one area in which Gaskin hasn’t been terrible this season.

DAVID MONTGOMERY: VS BALTIMORE ($5,500)

Volume pays the bills in cash games. Monty returned from the IR to a full workload, casting aside any rumors that impressive rookie Khalil Herbert would eat into his role in the second half of the season. Baltimore is no longer the defensive stalwart of yesteryear. This is an absolutely scintillating value on the slate.

MARK INGRAM: @ PHILADELPHIA ($5,400)

As I was formatting this article, Alvin Kamara was officially ruled out for Sunday with his MCL sprain. With this news, Ingram slots in as a premium value for DFS running backs. The added bonus is that the Saints are heading to Philly to face a really bad run defense. I expect Ingram to get a lot of work and he is extremely likely to score a touchdown.

JEFF WILSON, JR: @ JACKSONVILLE ($5,100)

I am simply not convinced (nor are my Twitter PT friends) that Elijah Mitchell will play much, if at all on Sunday with a fractured finger. Even if Mitchell guts it out after surgery, he will be compromised. Wilson is a favorite of Kyle Shanahan’s and slots into a nice workload against a Jaguars team that should get blown off the field by the 49ers.

D’ONTA FOREMAN: VS HOUSTON ($4,900)

I wasn’t sold on Foreman until he went and changed his jersey number, put on red sleeves, and started rocking the tinted visor. He played like an alpha back last, albeit without putting forth a great fantasy performance. Peterson looks his age and McNichols is battling concussion protocol. This is another value running back that will be easy to fit into your DFS builds.

Wide Receivers

DAVANTE ADAMS: @ MINNESOTA ($8,400)

Adams is the most reliable, consistent target hog in the NFL. He will have a pre-Thanksgiving feast in Minnesota on Sunday. I am projecting over 15 targets for Davante this week, so do the math on what his production will end up at.

TYREEK HILL: VS DALLAS ($8,200)***

The NFL’s leader in targets the last four weeks is a guy whose name isn’t normally associated with volume. Cheetah has settled into a role with much more route diversity to combine with his all-world ability to make extraordinary plays in space. The Cowboys allow a lot of big plays down the field and will struggle to contain Hill, even if they shadow him with Trevon Diggs.

STEFON DIGGS: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($7,900)

It was a long time coming, but Diggs had his first mega performance last week against the Jets. New York attempted to cover the All-Pro with man-to-man, attacking Josh Allen unsuccessfully with a myriad of blitzes. Indy is much more conservative, but their corners are getting roasted every week. Diggs will be back at the top of the scoring again this week.

DEEBO SAMUEL: @ JACKSONVILLE ($7,800)

The only reason we aren’t talking about Jimmy Garoppolo’s poor play is because Deebo Samuel is making spectacular plays on a weekly basis. Jimmy is playing smart by peppering Samuel with a massive target share. Deebo is even playing a few snaps per game as a running back to put the ball in his hands even more. The Jags don’t have anyone who can slow this train down.

CEEDEE LAMB: @ KANSAS CITY ($7,600)

Lost in the hoopla of Lamb’s big game last week is a minor arm injury that he has dealt with all week. Now with Amari Cooper on the COVID list, all of the attention has gone to Michael Gallup. I’m still firmly in the CeeDee camp. He is Dak’s favorite receiver this year and will get fat on the Chiefs in this marquee game.

BRANDIN COOKS: @ TENNESSEE ($6,000)

It seems that Cooks is always finding himself in Hot Cash. This is a true post-bye blind spot. Most DFS players won’t be as heavily exposed to the Texans-Titans game as I will be. Tennessee has some of the worst corners in the league, masking them only through a potent ball control offense. Cooks will get a ton of targets from Tyrod Taylor, with potential for a big breakout.

JALEN WADDLE: @ NY JETS ($5,600)

I was a bit worried about including Waddle in Hot Cash after last week’s game. He went from the short yardage slot role to more of an appropriate downfield route tree against the Ravens. Albert Wilson was getting his usual work and Waddle only saw six targets. I am actually excited to see if that trend continues against the Jets, who are as bad as any team at defending deep passes. Waddle might be a slate-breaker.

ELIJAH MOORE: VS MIAMI ($4,900)

DraftKings is biased against rookies, which is fine and dandy to me. DFS players can clean house with the young bucks hitting their stride in the second half of the season. Moore has taken over as the alpha receiver in New York and now has Joe Flacco as quarterback. Flacco isn’t great, but knows how to find the open man. Moore is that open man on just about every play, according to Reception Perception.

RASHOD BATEMAN: @ CHICAGO ($4,500)

Are you noticing a theme with these more affordable wide receivers? Breakout rookies…everywhere! Marquise Brown hasn’t slowed down with the emergence of future alpha, Bateman. Brown is working through a thigh injury. The rise of Bateman has also made the Ravens offense more pass-forward than ever before in the Lamar Jackson era. These are exciting times, especially at this salary for Week 11.

NICO COLLINS: @ TENNESSEE ($3,300)

That’s right, four rookies to wrap up my Week 11 Hot Cash receivers. I’m ready to admit my wrongness on Collins very soon. He has been amazingly consistent in limited work this season. Now that Taylor has returned healthy, we will see the best that the Michigan product has for the remainder of his rookie year. A date with a putrid Titans’ secondary at $3.3k makes this even more tasty.

Tight Ends

TRAVIS KELCE: VS DALLAS ($7,100)

The Cowboys did a great job last week at clamping down on the amazing Kyle Pitts, but the Falcons don’t have a Tyreek Hill or a Patrick Mahomes. Kelce is also much more savvy at beating double teams at this stage of his career. Dallas still struggles to cover the tight end and slot positions where Kelce will be running his routes. He’s a safe-but-expensive play for Week 11.

GEORGE KITTLE: @ JACKSONVILLE ($6,300)***

With arguably the same projection as the gold-plated Kelce, I have Kittle as my favorite tight end for Week 11. The $800 discount is more than enough to favor Stone Cold Kittle in a very palatable date with the Jags. I’ll be playing him in all formats, salary permitting.

MIKE GESICKI: @ NY JETS ($5,200)

Don’t let last week’s donut distract you from the big picture: Gesicki is a target hog. He still garnered seven (horribly inaccurate) targets last week, which means you can play him with confidence in cash games, especially against terrible defenses like the goddamn Jets.

DALTON SCHULTZ: @ KANSAS CITY ($4,600)

I very nearly put the triple asterisks next to Schultz’s name, but Kittle was just too good to pass up. With Jarwin (and now Cooper) out, the Stanford product stands to see a nice bump in looks from Dak against a very bad defense. My hope is that Kansas City won’t think to shadow the tight end with Tyrann Mathieu, who has done a much better job than the horrendous Daniel Sorensen.

DAWSON KNOX: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($4,000)

I missed on Knox last week. The same went for Cole Beasley. I honestly thought the Jets would have played more zone, opening up passing lanes to the tight end and slot receiver. Instead, they went man and left Diggs wide open. The Colts are a heavy zone team and struggle to cover anyone. Knox will be back on the map this week.

CJ UZOMAH: @ LAS VEGAS ($3,500)

I hope you didn’t think I gave up on Uzomah. After two down weeks, followed by the bye, I am very high on him for GPP value with upside out the wazoo against the Raiders. Vegas ranks 30th against tight ends in the NFL, which is nice. I expect Hayward to cover Jamarr Chase, leaving lesser men in coverage for Higgins, Boyd, and Uzomah.

MYCOLE PRUITT: VS HOUSTON ($2,600)

It’s pretty funny that I always pigeon-holed Pruitt as a blocking tight end. Apparently, it was Arthur Smith that did that. Pruitt’s athletic profile is very impressive for a tight end and the more-targeted Geoff Swaim (shoutout NorCal) has been ruled out against the Texans on Sunday. If you’re pinching pennies, you could do a lot worse than Pruitt. He is as likely as any Titan to find the end zone.

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

In Dominating Fashion

There’s something endearing about a villain. Maybe it’s just me, but Michael Richards in “Problem Child” and Christopher Lloyd in “Dennis the Menace” were some of my favorite antagonists. It could be that they were scaring some troubled youth right back on the straight and narrow. They were unabashedly disgusting and askew from gentrification, free to unleash a brand of chaos that we found frightening in the 90s.

I emerged from the mud and mediocrity last week to rain chaotic hellfire on poor Simpson. I didn’t even need Chase Edmonds’ vitality to romp and puff my chest out for the world to see. For the first time all season, Scott bore the brunt of my best lineup. His menacing and maniacal fireside call-out sealed his fate. For my next act, I will force him to listen to Baby Shark on loop for two hours if I win this week. What if, this entire time, I was the villain?

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,600

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – JANUARY 24: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up prior to their NFC Championship game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on January 24, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

The GOAT is averaging over 330 passing yards per game this season and is facing a secondary that is allowing over 300 yards passing per week. Even without a couple weapons, I can’t picture Brady having any trouble ripping Washington apart.

RB – Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings – $8,000

BALTIMORE, MD – NOVEMBER 07: Dalvin Cook #33 of the Minnesota Vikings carries the ball against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium on November 7, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)”nNo licensing by any casino, sportsbook, and/or fantasy sports organization for any purpose. During game play, no use of images within play-by-play, statistical account or depiction of a game (e.g., limited to use of fewer than 10 images during the game)

A disturbing story about Cook from last year surfaced this week, distracting some from a choice matchup against the Chargers. LA has a nice run funnel and Cook will get a ton of work with plenty of upside.

RB – Najee Harris – Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,900

Any bell-cow back that gets to face the Detroit Lions puts dollar signs in my eyes and drool down my chin like when Sylvester the cat sees Tweety in his cage. Najee is a bona fide stud and will absolutely feast on this defense.

WR – Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,900

TAMPA, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 24: Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts in the second quarter against the Chicago Bears in the game at Raymond James Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

With the injuries to Gronk, AB, and Godwin (game-time decision), the Tampa Bay receiving situation has been narrowed to the point of great clarity. Evans is going to feast on this terrible Washington secondary. As always, he is a threat to score multiple touchdowns to boot.

WR – Diontae Johnson – Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,800

CLEVELAND, OHIO – OCTOBER 31: Diontae Johnson #18 of the Pittsburgh Steelers reacts during the second half against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

DiontBAE is the preferred target in the Steel City for Big Ben, no matter how impressive the Muth has been. He is a technician on the outside and will have more reign over the route tree without Chase Claypool on the field.

WR – Josh Palmer – LA Chargers – $3,000

The Vikings’ secondary has been lit up like a prematurely-adorned Christmas tree this season. They even surrendered a big game to Cedrick Wilson of the Cowboys, who plays a lot like the Chargers’ rookie out of Tennessee. Palmer is a big play waiting to happen.

TE – OJ Howard – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $2,700

With Gronk still on the mend, I could very well spend the same amount on Cameron Brate. He’s boring, so I’ll go with the more athletic Howard. At least he might put up some PPR numbers before Brate vultures his touchdown.

FLEX – D’Ernest Johnson – Cleveland Browns – $4,700

CLEVELAND, OHIO – OCTOBER 31: Running back D’Ernest Johnson #30 of the Cleveland Browns runs for a gain during the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at FirstEnergy Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Steelers defeated the Browns 15-10. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

Everyone, including my Aunt Sally, will be playing D’Ernest this week. He’s going to have a great game behind this stellar offensive line. He’s the only healthy running back anyway. Go forth and eat thine chalk with broth.

DST – Minnesota Vikings – $2,300

Do I think this defense will slow the Chargers down? No. Do I think they will get a few sacks and maybe force a turnover or two to correlate value stacked with Cook? Yes. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

The Bad Guy

Ever since I was a little kid, I’ve always wanted to be the “Bad Guy” but was always cast in the good guy role. Big brother, team captain, teacher, team leader, etc… I’ve never been able to embrace my true heel role until Bo came along and we started Clashing our Beards and Bellies. Finally, I got to be the bad guy and it turns out that I am terrible at it. Maybe the grass isn’t greener on the other side and guys like Vic Mackey and Tony Soprano weren’t who I was supposed to be, even if I did embrace their “No fucks given” attitude, it’s just not me. I have to face reality, as much as I wish I was, I am not the bad guy. I’m not the good guy either. I’m just a guy who’s going to whoop Bo’s ass this week and then try to do it again next week. Let the Clash begin!!!

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,600

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 15: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates after a 98-yard touchdown run by Ronald Jones II #27 during their NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on November 15, 2020, in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to stomp the Washington Football Team come Sunday. The WFT ranks 32nd against quarterbacks, giving up 25 points per game, three more points than the 31st ranked team. The WFT also ranks 31st against wide receivers this year, great news for Tom Brady and Mike Evans. I am projecting them to be the optimal skinny stack this week, so obviously, Bo has them both on his team as well (eye-roll).

RB – Najee Harris – Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,900

CLEVELAND, OH – OCTOBER 31: Najee Harris #22 of the Pittsburgh Steelers carries the ball during the second half against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

The winless Detroit Lions are dreadful as a whole but are particularly terrible against running backs, ranking 31st and giving up 30 points per game. Steelers’ rookie Najee Harris is licking his chops this week to face the Lions. He’s currently second in targets and receptions to only D’Andre Swift this season, with 52 for 40. I love Harris in Cash this week and apparently so does Bo (second eye roll).

RB – D’Ernest Johnson – Cleveland Browns – $4,700

D’Ernest Johnson is the best value on the DraftKings main slate this week with the rest of the Cleveland Browns running backs currently either on the COVID-19 list or the IR. Nick Chubb has been ruled OUT for Sunday so expect Johnson to get most of if not all the running back work in the Browns’ matchup against the New England Patriots. Apparently, Bo is aware of this as well (third eye roll).

WR – Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,900

TAMPA, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 10: Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers catches a touchdown pass against Byron Jones #24 of the Miami Dolphins during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium on October 10, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Mike Evans is my favorite wide receiver under 7K this week. PFF projects him to have a top 10 matchup advantage over the Washington Football Team’s cornerbacks. He should see tremendous volume with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski both out for this game. Guess who else likes Evans this week (fourth eye roll)?

WR – A.J. Brown – Tennessee Titans – $7,800

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 18: A.J. Brown #11 of the Tennessee Titans celebrates the win at the end of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Bills 34-31. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

A.J. Brown and his 30% target share are what I am chasing in this matchup. The Saints rank 30th against wide receivers, giving up 42 points per game to pass catchers. I want 100% exposure to Brown this week! Especially since Bo doesn’t have him!!

WR – Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos – $5,600

Courtland Sutton has been overshadowed by the return of Jerry Jeudy to the lineup and as a result, his price has dipped dangerously low. I decided the price was too good to pass up this week. I do not need him to set the world on fire, just score 15 points for me.

TE – Dan Arnold – Jacksonville Jaguars – $3,500

Dan Arnold has been targeted 30 times the past four games. That’s good for a tight end right? The Colts defense ranks 28th against tight ends and has given up 544 receiving yards and six touchdowns on the season. I’m actually shocked that Bo doesn’t have him on his team.

Flex – Tyler Johnson – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $3,300

TAMPA, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 10: Tyler Johnson #18 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is tackled by Jevon Holland #8 of the Miami Dolphins during the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium on October 10, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Last week Tyler Johnson scored 11.5 DraftKings points and won me $200 with his late-game catch. This week Chris Godwin is banged up with a foot injury that relegated him to limited participation in practice all week. Tyler Johnson is not on Bo’s squad so I am expecting him to be the difference-maker in our matchup. It’s Tyler Time!!

DST – Tennessee Titans – $2,600

The Tennessee Titans defense is facing a New Orleans offense that ranks 28th in yards per game with 314, and now will be missing Alvin Kamara. The Titans should be able to keep the Saints in front of them and not give up the big play. They are a perfect pay-down option with week.