Welcome to NFL Week 13! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
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High Priced – Quarterback
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,200
Tom Brady leaned on Leonard Fournette last week, disappointing DraftKings players across the country. According to OccupyFantasy.com, Brady is only projected to be rostered in 5.6% of DraftKings lineups. I’m expecting that to spike around 10%, which is still a tremendous value for someone who threw five touchdowns against the Falcons in their previous meeting earlier this very season. I’m expecting Brady to bounce back in a big way this week, throwing for at least three scores in a blowout statement win over Matty Ice and the Falcons.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders – $6,000
Derek Carr ranks eighth in DraftKings points this season, averaging 24 points per game. The Washington Football Team is the absolute worst against quarterbacks, giving up 23.5 points per game. The Vegas Books currently have the over/under at 49.5, with a 25.75 implied team total for the Raiders. Look for the Raiders to air it out with Hunter Renfrow and the newly signed DeSean Jackson, who is out to revenge Washington…again. Foster Moreau will be filling in for an injured Darren Waller and makes a great cheap game stacking option if you want to load up on this matchup.
Value – Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans – $5,300
Tyrod Taylor is averaging 16.9 DraftKings points per game in the five games he has started this season. The Colts lead the league in turnovers but also have been terrible against wide quarterbacks giving up over 3,000 yards passing and 26 touchdowns. Taylor has touchdown and rushing upside in this match and is worth pairing with a reasonably priced Brandin Cooks at $5,900. Brevin Jordan at $2,500 is worth a dart throw if you are punting tight end and want a player with touchdown upside.
High Priced – Running Back
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts– $9,200
The last time Jonathan Taylor played the Houston Texans in Week 6 all he did was rush for 145 yards and two touchdowns, good for 31.8 DraftKings points. This week Taylor is priced up to $9,200, but he’s still one of the best values on the slate given his upside. I will be stacking Taylor with the Colts DST if at all this week.
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Mid-Range – Running Back
Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers – $6,000
I was wrong about Elijah Mitchell! I want the whole world to hear about it so I don’t have to hear about it anymore from my cohost of the @FFMillionaires Podcast, @TheRalphMacho on Twitter. Mitchell is the real deal in the Kyle Shanahan offense. Last week he saw over 30 opportunities and this week he faces the Seattle Seahawks who rank 31st against running backs, giving up close to 32 points per game. Mitchell has three touchdown upside this week and should be viable in all GPP tournaments.
Value – Running Back
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles – $5,200
Miles Sanders was averaging over 7 yards per touch last week before he was injured in the first half, failing to return in the second. This week Sanders is back and healthy enough to get in two full practices this week. Jordan Howard is OUT and Boston Scott has not practiced all week. The New York Jets rank 32nd against running backs, giving up 35 points per game on average. Miles Sanders let a lot of people down last week and as of Friday night is only projecting a 2.3% rostership. Sal Vetri says it’s all about the leverage, and Sanders might be the nuts at $5,200.
High Priced – Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen, LA Chargers – $7,500
Keenan Allen is averaging 11.6 targets per game, and 20.3 DraftKings points per game in the last 5 games. Coincidence? Possibly. Allen’s 31% target share over that span is tops in the NFL. The Chargers are road underdogs and should be trailing or fighting a back and forth score for score slugfest with Joe Burrow and rookie sensations Ja’Marr Chase. I’m projecting Allen for over 20 DraftKings points this week and will be stacking him with Herbert and Joe Mixon in mid-range GPP tournaments.
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders – $5,800
According to RunTheSims.com, Hunter Renfrow has a 22.9% optimal rate this week when he squares off with the Washington Football Team. PFF projects Renfrow for 49 snaps and a favorable rating in his cornerback matchups as well. With Darren Waller trending towards OUT, Renfrow becomes the WR1 on the team and should see 8-10 targets. The Washington Football team ranks 29th against wide receivers, giving up over 39 points per game. Renfrow will be live in all GPP formats this week.
Value – Wide Receiver
Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions– $3,400
Josh Reynolds at $3,400 is a steal this week. I was very excited to discover this and was hopeful that no one else had. Then I came across a Tweet by some punk kid named Denny Carter, who goes by the handle @cdcarter13 on Twitter and he said, “i’m psychically unable to stop throwing josh reynolds into lineups” Which I found to be disingenuous and now the cat is out of the bag apparently. I’m still willing to roll with him as a run-back option in a Minnesota/Detroit game stack or as a punt play.
High Priced – Tight End
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $6,000
Mark Andrews has been a target monster, averaging 9 per game the past 5 weeks. Lamar Jackson has been leaning heavily on his tight end, treating him more like a wide receiver. The Pittsburgh Steelers are falling apart, giving up 40 points per game to wide receivers the last two weeks. Look for the Ravens to exploit the mismatch and get Andrews downfield in open space. I’m comfortable stacking Lamar with Andrews in smaller GPP contests.
Mid-Range – Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,300
Rob Gronkowski is averaging 18.76 DraftKings points per game this season in the five games he’s played. He’s severally underpriced but has some injury risk baked into his price this week. I, for one, am willing to take a big swing with Gronk and will be featuring him in stacks with Tom Brady and naked as well.
Value – Tight End
Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders – $2,700
The best punt tight end play of the week, Foster Moreau at $2,700 makes tons of sense in place of an injured Darren Waller. In previous fill-in duty, Moreau caught all six of his targets for 60 yards and a score. The floor in this matchup should be 8 points, his true viability will be touchdown-dependent.
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