Nimble w/Numbers

Welcome to NFL Week 7! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – $8,000

Lamar Jackson played terribly last season against the Cleveland Browns, only scoring 14.4 points combined in two games. A stark contrast to the previous season when he scored six touchdowns against the Browns, good for 65.5 DraftKings points. So which Lamar should we expect agaisnt the Browns this year?

I’m predicting a huge bounce-back performance from Lamar Jackson this week! The Browns have looked terrible on defense this season, giving up 30 or more points in half of their games. This week they are 6.5-point road underdogs. I am expecting the Ravens to dominate the Browns on Sunday. My favorite way to approach this game is to stack Lamar Jackson with his tight end Mark Andrews and then run it back with Amari Cooper. Shhh. Don’t tell anyone.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,900

Joe Burrow was the top-scoring quarterback on DraftKings last week, accounting for four total touchdowns and passing for 300 yards during his slate-breaking performance. With Tee Higgins nursing an injury, Ja’Marr Chase was once again Burrow’s number-one target, collecting seven receptions for 132 yards and two touchdowns. We should have known when Burrow showed up to the New Orleans Super Dome in a Ja’Marr Chase LSU game-worn jersey that they were going to pop off.

This week Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are up against an Atlanta Falcons secondary that ranks 30 against wide receivers. They surrender over 40 points per game. Last week they gave up 48 points to Jimmy G. and the 49ers’ passing offense. Burrow and company are going to feast on PFF’s 49th and 84th-ranked cornerbacks Casey Hayward Jr. and A.J. Terrell. The Falcons have played well the past few weeks, but I expect the 6.5-point home-favorite Bengals to cover and put up points in the process.

Value – Quarterback

Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts – $5,400

A few weeks ago, Matt Ryan looked absolutely washed in his Thursday Night performance against Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos. He scored 6.1 points, which wasn’t his lowest output of the season. He only scored 1.8-points in Week 2 agaisnt the same Jacksonville Jaguars he faced on Sunday. So of course, right on cue, he drops three touchdowns, passes for 389 yards, and scores 27 DraftKings points in an impressive performance. Well played Matty Ice. I should never have doubted you.

This week Ryan and his wide receivers Michael Pittman, Paris Campbell, and Alec Pierce face a Tennessee Titans defense that ranks 28th agaisnt quarterbacks and 31st agaisnt wide receivers. Last week Ryan targeted wide receivers 34 times for 23 receptions, good for 240 yards and two touchdowns. Without Jonathan Taylor, in the lineup, the Colts offense has slowly shifted to a more pass-heavy focus. They are currently attempting the second most passing attempts per game through the first six games of the season. This is a trend that I expect to continue in this matchup with the Titans. Ryan might just be the nuts, again.

High Priced – Running Back

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – $7,900

Saquon Barkley’s 141 touches are the most by any running back in the NFL. He’s currently only one point behind DraftKings leading running back scorer Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns. Barkley looks like his former self, seeing over 23 touches per game and averaging over 5YPC.

This week Saquon and the New York Giants face the Jacksonville Jaguars who give up 27 fantasy points to running backs per game. Opponents’ running backs have exploited the Jags for 808 total yards and five total touchdowns. Just two weeks ago they game up 172 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns for 40 points to the Philadelphia Eagles. Saquon is priced up $200 this week from $7,700 last week but he should still be a popular play given his volume and the positive matchup.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders – $6,500

Josh Jacobs might be the only offense that the Las Vegas Raiders have come Sunday’s tilt with the Houston Texans. Wide receiver Davante Adams is facing possible Leauge discipline after he was charged with a misdemeanor assault for shoving a sideline photographer to the ground on his way to the locker room. Darren Waller missed Week 5 with a hamstring injury.

Jacobs is averaging 21.8 touches and over 20-points per game. Coincidence? I think not. Volume has been king for Jacobs this season. Nothing should change this week when the Raiders face the Texans. They have given up 880 total yards and six touchdowns to running backs in only five games. Opposing running backs are scoring 30-points against them on the regular. Hopefully, Jacobs won’t be 40% rostered next week because he will be one of the most popular running back plays for Week 7. Much like with the Rhamondre chalk last week, sometimes you just have to eat it.

Value – Running Back

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys – $5,700

This week Tony Pollard and the Cowboys face the Detroit Lions and their absolutely terrible rotten horrible no good defense. The Lions are so bad that despite having a bye last week, they have still given up the most touchdowns (eight) to running backs on the season. Running backs have lit them up for at least 20 points in every game this season. They say that past performance is the best predictor of future results. I don’t think the Lions’ defense learned to tackle during the bye so this week we roll with Dallas Cowboys running backs.

While Ezekiel Elliott is still officially the lead running back, Tony Pollard has outscored him on the season in DraftKings points by one. Pollard is priced at $5,700, while Elliott is priced at $6,000. Pollard has seen twice the receiving volume and has the breakaway speed needed to take a long run to the house. Elliott has a more stable floor, but I love Pollard’s upside for GPP tournaments.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals – $8,200

Ja’Marr Chase put his afterburners into nitro last week and blew by the New Orleans Saints secondary on his way to the game-winning touchdown. It was just ridiculous to behold given the angle and acceleration displayed by Chase. He was not going to be denied. There’s just too much junkyard dog in him. This week he has a juicy matchup with a Falcon’s secondary that is old and slow. Despite beating the 49ers at home last week, they gave up 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns to wide receivers for a total of 48 points. I love this match-up for Chase and if he show’s up to this week’s game in a vintage game-worn Joe Burrow LSU jersey, shit is about to get wild!

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns – $6,100

Amari Cooper has been averaging 12 targets per game in the last two weeks. This is three more than his season average of nine per game. Why the increase you ask. Good question. The Browns are 1-4. They have lost three games in a row. This week they face a Baltimore Ravens defense that ranks 29th against wide receivers this season. They have given up 1189 receiving yards and seven touchdowns through six weeks.

The Browns are currently 6-point road underdogs in this matchup. The game script is just begging Amari Cooper to break out. The Browns should be playing catchup or engaged in a back-and-forth game with the high-scoring Lamar Jackson and company. Hell, they fired their defensive coordinator Joe Wood, always a good sign if you are a wide receiver on the team. GPP or bust!

Value – Wide Receiver 

Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts – $4,600

Last week Alex Pierce finally showed up for the Indianapolis Colts, catching a last-minute touchdown pass from Matt Ryan to secure the victory over the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. The rookie will be brimming with confidence rolling into this week’s matchup with the Tennessee Titans. Despite being on a bye this past week, they still are tied for second worst in the NFL with eight touchdowns given up to wide receivers. They are giving up close to 45 points per game to the wide receiver position. I expect Matt Ryan to continue to feed Pierce this week. In all likelihood, he will be up against 5’11” 190lbs. Roger McCreary. Pierce has a four-inch height and a 20 lbs weight advantage so….adjust the ranks.

High Priced – Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $7,400

Mark Andrews has scored over 22.9 points in four of six games this season. He’s averaging 20.1 points per game and is second to only Travis Kelce this season at tight end points scored. No shocker, in games where Andrews has been targeted 10 times or more he scored 22.9 or more DraftKings points. The question then becomes, do we think that Andrews will be targeted 10 or more times? I do.

Andrews functions as the Baltimore Ravens WR1 with a 31.5% target share. He’s currently third behind only CeeDee Lamb at 32.4 and Cooper Kupp at 31.7. His $7,400 price tag is $600 less than Travis Kelce this week, who only has a 22% target share in the Chiefs’ offense. One never completely fades Kelce, but I am leaning toward Andrews in the pay-up tight end game this week.

Mid-Range – Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $5,300

George Kittle looked like George Kittle this past week against the Atlanta Falcons. He converted 10 targets into eight receptions for 83 yards and 16.3 DraftKings points. My partner at the Fantasy Millionaires, Mike “Cash” Collins (@TheRalphMacho on Twitter) loves Kittle’s matchup this week. PFF has him as a top 6 option as well. The 49ers will need to lean on him again this week if they have any chance of upsetting Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs’ defense has been susceptible to the old tight-end touchdowns this season, having given up four in six games. Kittle has yet to find the end zone in the four games he’s played. His target share bumped from 20% to 24% last week in a negative game script. TJ Hockenson’s $4,800 price should draw enough rostership to make Kittle a leverage play this week. Play him with quiet confidence.

Value – Tight End

Gerald Everett, LA Chargers – $4,000

This play is super simple. The Seattle Seahawks rank dead last in the NFL against the tight end position, giving up 24-points per game, six more than the 31st-ranked team. Gerald Everett was targeted seven times last week by Justin Herbert and should be able to find room down the seem against this young defense. They have already conceded 32 receptions for 526 receiving yards and four touchdowns through six weeks. All good things, for Everett.

Welcome to NFL Week 6! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $8,200

This just in, Josh Allen is Elite! The last time he faced the Kansas City Chiefs he threw for 329 passing yards, four touchdowns, and broke off 68 yards on the ground. He carved up the Chiefs last year like a Christmas ham, deliciously. We just saw what Derek Carr and Davante Adams did to this porous Chiefs secondary. They have given up a league-worst 12 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks and rank 27th in the NFL, giving up over 21 fantasy points per game.

Allen’s 16 total touchdowns,14 passing, and two rushing lead all NFL quarterbacks. He’s averaging over 32 points per game in a matchup that has a 53.5 total. Stacking Allen with Diggs or Gabe Davis gives you the greatest upside play in this matchup. The Chiefs have given up 7 touchdowns to wide receivers and over 800 receiving yards in five games. Allen is expensive at $8,200 but he’s still one of the top plays this week.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,300

My co-host at the Fantasy Millionaires Mike “Cash” Collins believes that Tom Brady is going to come out like a man possessed in the next few weeks, raining down touchdowns in his angry wake. Tom Brady has been “Elite” all these years while also spending time being a family man. Now there’s nothing to stop him from truly dedicating himself to his one love in life, which has always been football.

Lining up across from our Hero this week are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who might be one of the worst football teams in the NFL this year. Their secondary ranks dead last in the NFL against the wide receiver position, giving up 48.8 points per game. On the season they’ve surrendered 9 touchdowns and over 1,100 receiving yards. Tom Brady is only priced up $300 to $6,300 this week. I’m double stacking him with Leonard Fournette and one of his wide receivers. Cha-ching!

Value – Quarterback

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks – $5,700

If you would have told me that Geno Smith would be $5,700 on DraftKings in week 6 I would have said that sounds expensive to me. Now I’m foaming at the mouth to get him into as many lineups as I can after he’s exploded onto the scene this year. Who knew that Russell Wilson was holding back the Seattle Seahawks? Apparently, Pete Carroll did! Geno Smith has been a revolution. His deep ball is perfect, connecting twice last week with Tyler Lockett on 40-plus-yard touchdown throws. He’s the definition of En Fuego right now.

Tyler Lockett is only $5,600 this week which is insane. His rostership will be through the roof, obviously. But sometimes you need to eat the chalk to make a DFS lineup. The Geno/Lockett stack will be one of the most popular ones this week, but adding Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown as a run-back option should help break it up a bit. You could also pay up for DK Metcalf at $6,800 as well in this matchup. The total for this game is 51.5, the second-highest total this week. I’m going to be all over this game!

High Priced – Running Back

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – $7,700

Saquon Barkley is averaging 24 opportunities and 22.3 DraftKings points per game. He’s basically scoring a point every time he touches the football. This week the Giants are 4.5-point home underdogs to Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, so he might be touching the football A LOT!!

If the Giants plan on controlling the clock and keeping Lamar off the field, they are going to need to feed Barkley. If they are trailing and need to play catchup, I love Saquon seeing increased opportunities in the passing game. Not to make it too simple, but all roads lead to Saquon this week for the Giants. At only $7,700, it might be the deal of the day at running back.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots – $6,000

Rhamondre Stevenson was unleashed last week by Bill Belichick, rushing for 161 yards on 25 carries, adding two receptions for a total of 27 touches. Stevenson scored his highest output of the season and his third 20-plus point performance in his last seven games. That’s actually impressive for a Patriots running back given the mercurial nature of Belichick’s running back by committee rotation history. Reports came out today from ProFootballTalk that “Damien Harris likely to miss multiple games with a hamstring injury.”

Stevenson should be in line for 20-25 touches again this week against a Cleveland Browns defense that let Austin Ekeler rush for 171 yards at a clip of 10.8 yards per carry. Yes, what you just read sounds absurd. It’s insanity. Stevenson is rushing for 5.5 yards per carry on the season, which means this is a matchup made in matchup heaven. Fingers crossed Belichick doesn’t decide to unleash Zappe. LOL!

Value – Running Back

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks – $5,400

Kenneth Walker III is the new starting running back for the Seattle Seahawks after Rashaad Penny fractured his fibula in last Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints. Walker III filled in admirably in the starting role, rushing for 88 yards on eight carries. His most impressive carry was his 69 touchdown scamper in the second half. He looked like he was shot out of a cannon.

Seahawk running backs are averaging 21.4 opportunities per game this season. Walker will split backfield touches with DeeJay Dallas but should see the bulk of the work. I am projecting him for 16-18 touches, including the passing down work. He’s a great pay-down option if you want to load up on high-priced stud wide receivers this week. The Cardinals have given up three passing and two rushing touchdowns to go along with over 500 total yards to running backs. Walker will be chalky, so stay frosty.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Stefon Bills, Buffalo Bills – $8,400

Josh Allen and his traveling high-flying wide receiver circus are on the road this week at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. This is the marquee matchup of the Sunday slate and currently has a 54-point total. It was 53.5 when I started writing this article an hour ago. 80% of the bets are coming in on the Bills right now. Besides Allen, one of the main reasons the Bills have been successful this year has been Stefon Diggs.

Diggs is second in DraftKings fantasy points to only Cooper Kupp. He leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 5, is third in receptions with 39, and ranks 5th in receiving yards with 508. Lining up against him is normally, reliable cornerback, Rashad Fenton ranks 62nd out of 102 defensive backs according to PFF. His coverage grade of 58.8 is the worst of his career. I’m sure playing against Davante Adams twice a year is fun. Out of the frying pan and into the furnace this week against Diggs. I expect him to bounce back big from his poor playoff performance last year in the Divisional round game where he had three receptions for seven yards. Fade him at your own risk this week.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks – $5,600

Tyler Lockett has scored the eighth most DraftKings points for wide receivers this season and is the 21st most expensive wide receiver this week. Once again I’m questioning the sanity of the DraftKings algorithm. He should be priced up to $6,500 at least. Instead, he is priced at $5,600. I honestly think they made a mistake and we’re too proud to admit it and now they’re just going to roll it out there like that and let us feast upon him.

The problem is every time you look up Lockett is catching a 40-yard touchdown bomb from Geno Smith. I don’t make the rules Kidz this is just what’s happening right now. He scored over 14 DraftKings points in four of 5 weeks this season, including 22.7 and 30.4 point performances. I’m just going to cash in while I can and ride Lockett to money in my pocket. He might have a 69% rostership this week, so make sure that you stack him for maximum upside.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills – $3,700

Tip of the cap to my cohost on the Nimble DFS Chalk Blocked show Bo McBrayer AKA @Bo_McBigTime on Twitter, who called Khalil Shakir’s breakout game last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. With Isaiah McKenzie still in the NFL’s concussion protocol, he shined in the slot receiver role, catching three of five passes for 60 yards and a touchdown. Well down all around.

What’s not to love about running it back at only $3,700 this week? Shakir should continue to see an increased role in the offense after last week’s performance, McKenzie or no McKenzie. Not to beat a dead horse in this article, but the 54-point total just jumped to 69 points for goodness’ sake people! Play the man!!

High Priced – Tight End

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – $7,800

Travis Kelce is “Lock and Load”this week at only $7,800. No, he’s not going to score four touchdowns sorry to say. Last year in their Divisional Round matchup against the Bills, Kelce caught eight balls for 96 yards and a touchdown. Good for around 20 DraftKings fantasy points. So far this season he’s been the number one tight end averaging 4.2 more points per game than Mark Andrews. He’s first in receptions with 33 and touchdowns with seven and he’s second in receiving yards to Andrews by only two yards.

No one can stop Kelce right now. He’s caught 16 of the last 18 passes Mahomes has thrown his way. He was four for four in his red-zone opportunities last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. I expect him to see another 10 targets this week including multiple red-zone opportunities in a game script that should keep him involved all game long. I’m not expecting a 78-point outburst like last January’s Divisional Round matchup, but this game is going to fuck, just make sure it’s not you and play Kelce.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Tyler Higbee, LA Rams – $4,600

I’m partial to Tyler Higbee after he caught three touchdowns in Week 2 of the 2020 season, helping me score 251.6 points and win $5,000 on DraftKings. With that being said, he has quietly been one of the most consistently performing tight ends all season long. Higbee scored at least 10 DraftKings points in four of five matchups this season. He’s seen a Cooper Kupp-like target share the last two weeks as the Rams’ offensive line has struggled to protect Matthew Stafford, forcing him to settle for short passes underneath to Higbee.

His 24 targets in the last two weeks are probably not sustainable long-term, but he should see plenty of work this week against a Carolina Panthers defense that can get after the quarterback. According to PFF, Higbee has a top-five matchup this week against linebacker Cory Littleton. Expect the Rams to take advantage of this mismatch and pepper him with 8 to 10 targets. I’m predicting he catches his first touchdown so now you know you have to play him at only $4,600.

Value – Tight End

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns – $4,000

It’s David Njoku SZN!! In his last three games, he’s averaging just under eight targets and 16.5 DraftKings points per game. He’s also been consistent, scoring over 10 points in three straight games after getting off to a slow start through the first two weeks of the season.

The New England Patriots have given up five receiving touchdowns to tight ends in five games this season. Njoku has only one receiving touchdown on the season, but he has an excellent chance this week to add to his total. When I’m not playing Kelce, I’m paying down for him and loading up with high-priced wide receivers and running backs.

Welcome to NFL Week 5! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles – $8,100

Jalen Hurts had a down Week 4, only scoring 17 DraftKings points. The weather in Philadelphia was absolutely terrible with monsoon-like rain and wind gusts swirling along with an invigorated Jacksonville defense. Despite a poor overall performance he rushed for a touchdown and he currently leads all quarterbacks with four through four games.

The Arizona Cardinals are not a very good football team. According to PFF, their defense currently ranks 32. Since there are only 32 teams and it’s not opposite day, they are royally fucked this week when Hurts and the undefeated Eagles soar into the desert. Hurts stacked with A.J. Brown is my cohost at the Fantasy Millionaires, Mike “Cash” Collins favorite pay-up stack of the week. It might secretly be mine too. Don’t tell him.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – $7,100

Last week I told you to stack Justin Herbert with Austin Ekeler. The two combined for 59 points, just like I predicted. Apparently, the DraftKings algorithm did not read my article or watch Justin Herbert’s performance last week against the Houston Texans. I mean, I get it. There’s no Keenan Allen and Herbert hasn’t been dominant yet this season, but still.

Herbert has scored over 23 DraftKings points in three of four performances this year. The addition of free agent tight end Gerald Everett has been a huge upgrade over aging Jared Cook last year. Head coach Brandon Staley called Allen “day-to-day” on Monday, and so his status for Sunday remains unclear. If Allen returns, I will be above the field on Herbert shares.

Value – Quarterback

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,000

I can’t believe that Tom Brady is priced down at only $6,000 this week on DraftKings. I thought it was a typo and it was actually $6,900 but then after I blinked a few times I realized that maybe DraftKings felt bad for Tom after the news of Gisele leaving him broke. Maybe they were trying to throw him and also us players a proverbial bone. Whatever the reason, I’m scarfing down this min-priced Brady. I love stacking them this week with Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. You can even get cute and creative and stack him with Leonard Fournette or Rachaad White. Balls will be thrown this week. Brady is down, but not out, and I literally expect him to throw himself into his work with week.

High Priced – Running Back

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – $8,000

Nick Chubb is averaging 23 DraftKings points per game and is only priced at $8,000. This makes no sense. He is going to run the football all day long. He’s good for a touchdown every single week and he’s a plug-and-play value at this point. On the season the Chargers have given up 619 yards and five total touchdowns to the running back position. On average they give up around 30 points per game. Last week Dameon Pierce averaged 9.4 yards-per-carry, rushed for 131 yards, and scored 28.9 DraftKings points. Dameon Pierce is no Nick Chubb.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans – $6,200

Speaking of Dameon Pierce, last week he finally burst onto the NFL scene with a 75-yard touchdown run, carving up the Los Angeles Chargers defense like a turkey on Thanksgiving. What was most impressive was his 20 total opportunities including six targets and six receptions. All of us did come in a furious comeback time, but that’s the best part about the Houston Texans is it their defense is terrible, so they’ll be in a furious hurry-up comeback mode all season long. Pierce is priced up this week but I still love his matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars who just made miles Sanders look like Saquon Barkley, giving up 134 yards and two touchdowns. It’s officially Pierce season!

Value – Running Back

Dameon Harris, New England Patriots– $5,600

Nobody knows who the starting quarterback is going to be for the New England Patriots next week. We do know that the Detroit Lions give up 30-plus points per game to opposing running backs and are ranked 31st in the NFL. Last week Rashaad penny cashed in with two rushing touchdowns and 151 yards rushing. Last week the Patriots ran the ball 32 times. Damien Harris saw 18 of those carries to Rhamondre Steveson’s 14. Harris also scored a touchdown and 15 DraftKings points to Steveson’s 12. I like both Patriots running backs this week so pick your poison in this juicy matchup.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia – $7,500

AJ Brown is averaging over 100 yards receiving, 9.5 targets, and most importantly, 18.6 DraftKings points per game.  According to PFF, Brown has the best cornerback matchups this week. There’s nothing better than a score of 100. RunTheSims also has Brown as a top 5 wide receiver this week. 

Brown has only scored one touchdown on the season, after getting a touchdown called back from a sketchy offensive pass interference call on Dallas Goedert. The Cardinals’ cornerbacks are no match for the physicality Brown will bring them on Sunday. Marco Wilson, PFF’s 101st /105th, and Byron Murphy Jr., PFF’s 49th/105 cornerbacks both give up 35lbs. and four inches in height to Brown. Brown is my “LOCK OF THE WEEK”! 

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Mike Evans, Tampa Buccaneers – $6,900

Mike Evans is averaging 20 DraftKings points per game he’s currently the seventh highest scoring wide receiver and is being priced as the tenth highest. He Scored 33 DraftKings points last week after catching eight receptions for 103 yards and two touchdowns. He’s Tom Brady’s favorite target in any zone and should see plenty of volume in this high-scoring affair. The Atlanta Falcons are averaging 25.8 points scored per game. which means this game has the potential to shoot. Currently, the total over-under is 48 points, With the Buccaneers being favored by 8.5 points at home.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals – $4,100

Rondale Moore made his season debut last week and had an 86% snap share, ran 33 routes on 35 Kyler Murray dropbacks, and had a 10.4-yard average depth of target. All those stats from Adam Levitan from Establish the Run.

In Week 5, Moore and the Arizona Cardinals face off against Jalen Hurts and the Philadephia Eagles, the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL. They are currently five-point home underdogs. This game script has a pass-heavy Kyler comeback narrative written all over it! At only $4,100, Moore is the pay-down lotto ticket that actually has slate-breaking upside. He should see more than five targets this week as Greg Dortch is further fazed out of the offense.

High Priced – Tight End

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions – $4,900

T.J. Hockenson is going to have so many babies named after him in nine months after he more than likely impregnated anyone lucky enough to be in attendance at Ford Field on Sunday. Hell, I peed on a stick after watching the highlights just to make sure I was in the clear.

I’m not expecting a repeat performance, nor am I chasing points. That’s a tremendous weekly DFS podcast from my guys over at Fantasy Points, led by Graham Barfield and Scott Barrett! The Lions’ opponents in Week 5, the New England Patriots have given up 5 touchdowns to tight ends through four games this season. That’s bad for them and great for us! Wheels up.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers – $4,100

Pat Freiermuth has quietly scored over 12 DraftKings points in three or four games so far. This week he’s priced at $4,100 and faces a Buffalo Bills defense that is good. Kenny Pickett is going to be under duress all game long and I expect him to look for Pat Freiermuth in the middle of the field like he did last week against the Jets. He was targeted a game-high nine times for an insane 35% target share. Look for Pickett to continue to lean on Freiermuth as he gains his bearings in the NFL. He’s a target monster with a red-zone touchdown upside.

Value – Tight End

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots – $2,900

Tip of the cap to my cohost on Chalk Blocked, the world’s sexiest DFS Show, for now, Bo McBrayer for pointing out the glaringly obvious. Hunter Henry is the only game in Patriots town at the tight end position this week. Jonnu Smith is OUT and so might be Max Jones. If Zappe is under center expect Henry to see an increased role in the passing games. I’m rolling with Henry as a pay down with pay off written all over him!!

Welcome to NFL Week 4! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – $8,300

Lamar Jackson currently leads all DraftKings scores with 113 points. He’s averaging 37.8 points per game. What’s been most impressive is what he’s done through the air. His 10 passing touchdowns lead the NFL. He’s also added two rushing touchdowns, giving him a total of 12. This week Lamar Jackson faces Josh Allen and the high-flying Buffalo Bills offense. The 52-point total is the highest on the board this week and I think the game shoots the over.

Last week the Baltimore Ravens defense gave up 30 points to Mac Jones. Josh Allen is not Mac Jones. Lamar Jackson is going to need to throw three touchdowns and rushed for two more touchdowns just to keep his team in the game. The Bills are banged up a corner which is great news for Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay. I love stacking Lamar with one of his wide receivers or with Mark Andrews. A double stack is not out of the question at all.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – $7,100

The Houston Texans’ secondary is bad. Their starting cornerbacks, Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson rank 92nd and 60th, respectively out of 102. That’s not good. They have only given up one touchdown pass, but to be fair they had Alec Pierce drop a touchdown on them back in Week 1, and have faced a “cookless” Russell Wilson and the hapless Chicago Bears. Despite his broken rib cartilage, Herbert passed the ball 45 times last week in the loss to the Jaguars.

I am not worried about his health in this matchup and there’s a chance that Keenan Allen might be back as well. I expect Austin Ekeler to be heavily involved in the passing attack in this matchup. Ekeler currently leads all NFL running backs with 22 targets and 21 receptions. The Houston Texans are terrible agaisnt the running back, already giving up 92 yards in three games. All signs point to the Chargers and Herbert getting right against the Texans.

Value – Quarterback

Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons – $5,600

Last week Marcus Mariota was my value quarterback at $5,500. This week DraftKings has priced him up $100 to $5,600. According to RunTheSims.com his baseline projection for Week 4 is 20 points, or close to 4xing his value. The Falcons currently ranked ninth in points scored per game with 26.7.

The Browns on the other hand have given up seven total touchdowns to quarterbacks, including two rushing touchdowns. Mariota has a rushing touchdown in two out of three games so far this season. Mariota is a very safe play with tons of upside in a game with a 50-point total with two defenses that have been mediocre so far. He could pay off big this game shoots.

High Priced – Running Back

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – $8,000

Saquon is back and he looks electric! Consider his Week 4 price of $8,000 price a sweet Monday night discount. The DraftKings price gremlins hedged their bets and lost this one. Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffery, and Derrick Henry are all hundreds of dollars more expensive this week. Barkley is second to only Nick Chubb in DraftKings points at the running back position, and only by 0.1.

He currently leads all NFL running backs with 409 total yards. He’s averaging five targets per game and six yards per carry. The Giants are playing the Chicago Bears in Week 4. They just gave up 101 total yards to Houston Texans’ rookie running back Dameon Pierce. Barkley has seen 68 opportunities through the first three games of the season and should see 22-25 touches in this matchup.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions – $6,100

D’Andre Swift is banged up and is most likely going to miss some time with sprained shoulder according to a Tom Pelissero report on Twitter. Even before the injury, Jamaal Williams was holding his own in the Lions backfield. He’s the Lions’ primary goal-line back and is tied for the NFL league lead with four rushing touchdowns.

 According to the Detroit Free Press, if Swift misses time, Williams will likely split the backfield load with Craig Reynolds and Justin Jackson. I expect Williams to serve as the starter, with Reynolds jumping into the PPR role. The Seattle Seahawks, have given up 502 total yards and two touchdowns to running backs through the first three weeks. Williams should be a smash play!

Value – Running Back

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears – $5,700

After last week’s explosive performance filling in for the injured David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert isn’t sneaking up on anyone this week in DSF. His juicy cheap price will make him a chalky pay-down option. I’m not worried unless we get into the 30% rostership zone.

The Bears’ run-heavy attack will keep Herbert busy agaisnt a New York Giants defense that just gave up 178 yards rushing to a depleted Dallas Cowboys offensive line. In the young season, the Giants have already surrendered 469 total yards and three touchdowns to running backs. The Bears running backs are averaging 28.7 touches per game. Herbert is averaging 7.3 yards per carry and his 240 rushing yards rank 6th best in the NFL. Adjust the ranks.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts – $7,200

Michael Pittman is averaging 21 DraftKings points per game this season. Matt Ryan’s affinity for Pittman is growing too. Last week he targeted him on 25% of his dropbacks. He turned his whopping 53% wide receiver target share into eight receptions good for 72 yards. He’s only found the endzone once, in Week 1 against the Houston Texans. According to PFF this week Pittman has the second-best cornerback matchup. Cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary both measure in at 5’11” and weigh under 200lbs.

Pittman on the other hand stands 6’4” and weighs 220lbs. The size mismatch represents a clear advantage for the Colts to exploit downfield and in the red-zone. I expect Pittman to see 8-10 targets, including 1-2 down by the goal-line. At $7,200, Pittman is priced up coming off of a down performance, so hopefully, that scares folks off of him and his chalk isn’t through the freaking roof.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,000

Diontae Johnson is averaging 11 targets per game this season, But only 14.6 DraftKings points per game. That’s all going to change this week when he faces the New York Jets. I’m predicting a two-touchdown breakout performance for Diontae Johnson. The Jets have already given up 466 receiving yards to wide receivers as well as six touchdowns. They give up two touchdowns per game to wide receivers on average.

The Jets’ safeties imparticular are a huge liability. Lamarcus Joyner has a PFF grade of 29.9, good for 75th of 76. Jordan Whitehead, the pillar of the group ranks 65th. If Johnson gets behind the defense, who for some reason still is playing man coverage, he will find paydirt. Shhh. This little secret is just ours.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens – $4,100

Devin Duvernay is a touchdown Ninja. He has eight targets this season, eight receptions, and three touchdowns. He is one touchdown behind Stefon Diggs for the NFL lead. He’s also one point behind his teammate Rashod Bateman in DraftKings points. And he’s only $4,100 in a game with a 52-point total that has the potential to shoot into the 60s. Lamar is looking for him in the red zone as well.

I love stacking Lamar with Duvernay and running it back with Stefon Diggs or Gabriel Davis. We know this game is going to shoot and touchdowns are going to be scored through the air. Lamar Jackson leads the league with 10 passing touchdowns. If you don’t play Duvernay you don’t deserve to win.

High Priced – Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $7,100

Mark Andrews is the WR1 on the Baltimore Ravens and we have always known that. His $7,100 price tag is a bargain given his role in the Ravens’ offense though. Did you know that? For a bit of perspective, he leads all NFL tight ends with 31 targets, 22 receptions, 240 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. With back-to-back 28-point DraftKings performances and a 52-point game total against the Buffalo Bills, all systems point to blast off for Andrews.

His floor is safe and his ceiling is close to 10 points higher than any other tight end this week. If you are paying up for Andrews, you should stack him with Lamar Jackson to maximize your leverage. I also like adding Devin Duvernay and running the game stack back with a few of the Buffalo Bills’ weapons.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – $5,000

Kyle Pitts truthers have had a rough first few weeks of the NFL season, Bo McBigTime and Mike “Cash” Collins especially. I hope they can finally take a deep breath and relax. Last week Pitts finally came to fantasy life, turning his eight targets into five receptions for 87 yards and 13.7 DraftKings points.

The head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, Arthur Smith came out and said “the ball will find him” and it did. I expect the ball to keep finding Pitts this week in a potentially high-scoring matchup with the Cleveland Browns. The game has a 50-point total and the Falcons are home underdogs. There will be targets and I predict that Pitts will catch his first career NFL touchdown in America. Punch those prop tickets boys!!

Value – Tight End

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets – $3,600

Tyler Conklin is the third-highest scoring tight end through the first three weeks of the NFL season. And it’s not like he had one explosive game and two duds, he has been consistent, scoring over 10 points all three games. This week, he faces a Steelers defense that was just bludgeoned by David Njoku for nine receptions, 90 receiving yards, and a touchdown.

Conklin is tied for third in tight end targets with Travis Kelce with 24. With games of seven, nine, and eight targets, the floor is safe and the upside is sky high. The Jets are road underdogs, so you know Flacco will be adding to his league-leading 155 passing attempts. He’s averaging an unholy 51.6 attempts per game. Enjoy the free money.

Welcome to NFL Week 3! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s Cash Plays, check out all our content at NimblewNumbers.com . All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a FREE RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles – $7,600

Jalen Hurts is a beast! He currently is the NFL’s eleventh leading rusher and ranks second in rushing touchdowns with three. He’s also passed for over 550 yards and has a completion percentage of 69%! His RunTheSims.com boom rate is over 66%. The Washington Commanders have historically struggled to contain rushing quarterbacks and their current group of linebackers might be their worst in decades. Jalen Hurts could rush for over 75 yards in this matchup in the first half. I love playing him naked or stacking him with A.J. Brown. He’s currently being rostered at 9%, which is behind only Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – $6,500

Matthew Stafford rebounded in week 2 scoring over 20 points after a disappointing season opener against the  Buffalo Bills. The Cardinals on the other hand rank 32nd against quarterbacks, giving up over 26 points per game. They have surrendered 612 passing yards and seven touchdowns, with no interceptions. Stafford has three different stacking options this week. Cooper Kupp is priced up at $9,900, Allen Robinson at $5,700, and Tyler Higbee down at $4,500. Kupp is the Rolls-Royce stack with the most explosive upside. He saw 28 targets in two games last season. I’m comfortable stacking them all but prefer Kupp at the points per dollar value.

Value – Quarterback

Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons – $5,500

Bo McBrayer from FantasyPros loves Marcus Mariota this week in a double stack with Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Marcus Mariota is the 12th highest scoring DraftKings quarterback through 2 weeks with 37 points. At only, $5,500 he’s a tremendous pay-down value who has rushing opportunities with goal-line carry upside. If he can finally connect with Pitts, the stack could pay off in a big way. I’m also completely comfortable running Mariota out naked and paying up at running back or wide receiver this week.

High Priced – Running Back

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals – $7,600

Joe Mixon is averaging 30 opportunities per game through the first two weeks of the season. Mixon is fourth in the NFL with 13 running back targets as well. The Bengals are 0-2 and on the road this week in New York to face the Jets. I can see Zac Taylor using Mixon to control the clock and slow the game down to make sure that the Bangles come out with a victory. I can easily see Mixon rushing for over 100 yards (and the bonus) and scoring a touchdown or two. All while adding 4-5 receptions and 30 yards out of the backfield. Currently, he’s picking up 14% rostership, which is the fourth highest on the slate.

Mid-Range – Running Back

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,500

Leonard Fournette is still the only game in town for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week when they face Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Mike Evans is suspended, Chris Godwin is OUT, they were so desperate they signed Cole Beasley to the practice squad.  Leonard Fournette is going to eat in this matchup he underperform last week and has been priced down $200 to $6,500. According to RunTheSims.com Fournette’s boom rate is over 63%. He’s one of the best plays on the board and should see 25 touches again in this matchup. Tom Brady knows the best way to win is to feed Fournette while the rest of his team heals up.

Value – Running Back

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles – $5,500

Miles Sanders is averaging 17.5 opportunities per game. While the Washington Commanders on the other hand have given up 310 total yards and three touchdowns to running backs through the first two games of the season. Travis Etienne dropped a walk-in touchdown and Trevor Lawrence failed to hit him on another potential touchdown, so those numbers are actually pretty light. The Commander’s linebacking corps is barely that. Once Miles Sanders breaks through the line, to the second level he should have the opportunity to turn basic runs into huge plays. I would not be surprised to see him go for a long touchdown in this game over 50 yards. If I’m paying down at running back I’ll take all the Miles Sanders. Yes. Yes. Yes. I can’t believe I’m saying this as well.

High Priced – Wide Receiver 

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills – $7,700

Stefon Diggs is the number one scoring player in DraftKings through two weeks and he’s price down at $7,700. He’s $2,200 cheaper than Cooper Kupp and he’s scored seven more DraftKings points so far through two weeks. Yes. Time is a flat circle. Adjust the ranks and be thankful that the oddsmakers over at the DraftKings haven’t yet caught on to the fact that Stefon Diggs should be priced at around $8,800 every single week. Diggs is third in the NFL in receptions with 20. He is second in receiving yards with 270, behind only Tyreek Hill. And he has four touchdowns, which leads the league. Stefon Diggs to the f****** Moon!

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,100

Tee Higgins is back! And so are the New York Jets and their sucky secondary. They’ve already given up 239 yards and four touchdowns to wide receivers in the first 2 weeks. Higgins saw 10 targets last week which converted into six catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. At $6,100, he is $2,000 cheaper than Ja’Marr Chase this week. He’s a great value if you’re stacking either Joe Burrow or using him in a runback stack with a Joe Flacco/Jets receiver stack. Higgins and Burrow is my co-host at the fantasy millionaires, Mike “Cash” Collins’s, favorite stack of the week. I personally love running it back with either Elijah Moore or Garrett Wilson in a game you know the Jets are going to have to pass the ball. Bombs away!

Value – Wide Receiver 

Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders – $5,100

Curtis Samuel is my value wide receiver for the third straight week. Next week he might be my mid-range wide receiver as he’s been priced up now to $5,100, which is the very edge of the value wide receiver category if I’m being honest. And I’m always being honest with DFS. Samuel is the WR1 on a Washington Commanders offense that already has seven passing touchdowns and has targeted the wide receivers extensively in the passing game. Samuel leads the team in targets with 20, receptions 15, receiving yards 133, and in DraftKings points with 43.1. Washington is a six-point home underdog with a game script ripe for a late touchdown pass to Samuel to push him over the 20-point mark and another 4x. 

High Priced – Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $6,900

This week Mark Andrews is priced at $6,900. Insert “nooice” meme right here. Travis Kelce is $1,000 more expensive at $7,900 when their stat lines are Basically carbon copies of each other. The Ravens are going to need to throw the football in this game against the Patriots. I expect Bill Belichick to try to take away Lamar Jackson’s abilities to roam outside the pocket, making Mark Andrews an even greater threat. I expect him to get upwards of ten Targets in this matchup and should score you between 18 and 20 points. I feel like his floor is safe and you save yourself $1,000.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – $4,800

Kyle Pitts is priced at $4,800 this week on DraftKings, making him one of the most interesting plays at tight end. Pitts has done nothing, absolutely positively unequivocally nothing so far this year. But we know there’s untapped potential and we also know that eventually Mariota will find him and there will be a touchdown scored and all the Earth Will Rejoice. The question is will it be this week. I think it will be. Seattle has struggled against the tight end. Look what washed Russell Wilson did to them in week one. Now Kyle Pitts has a chance to redeem himself and cash it in for you at a tremendous value. Fingers crossed he catches his first NFL touchdown in America this weekend.

Value – Tight End

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers– $4,400

Gerald Everett has finally recovered from being winded and looking for his mouthguard. Last week was 10 long days ago and I’m not worried about any carryover or hangover between him and Justin Herbert. At $4,400, Everett is a value in this high total game that should see the Los Angeles Chargers score up words of 27 points. I’m comfortable rolling with him at his $4,400 price tag this week only if I’m stacking him with Justin Herbert. I don’t want to play him naked.