Nimble w/Numbers

All Hallow’s Eve

My family goes all-out this time of year. Between flickering orange porch lights, terrifying (and motion-sensing) decorations, and elaborate costumes, Halloween is entirely off the rails at our house. It doesn’t end there, either. We also celebrate Dia de los Muertos from November 1-2, which is a special time to honor all of our loved ones who are no longer with us. We lay out an altar, known as an ofrenda, decorated with flowers, candles, and some of their favorite food and drinks.

The two holidays are intertwined perfectly with what we feel is an important connection with the spiritual world. It also allows us to completely overload on chocolate and alcohol for three days. Being festive is fun. Sharing funny stories about Aunt Pat or Grandpa Willie bring us immense joy, while bringing their spirits back to life within us.

Football Sunday for Week 8 falls directly on All Hallow’s Eve this year. I expect some weird, wild things to happen. The extra bit of ghostly chill in the air should bring about some breakthrough performances by players previously left for dead. Bye-mageddon is over, the portal between the mortal and spiritual worlds is agape, and we have a 12-game main slate to sift through the DFS tricks and treats.

Week 8 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

JOSH ALLEN: VS MIAMI ($8,100)

There are few quarterbacks that strike as much fear into defensive coordinators more than Josh Allen. Buffalo is among the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL, with Allen taking strides every game to be more potent than ever. Add in his rushing ability, especially at the goal line, and this is a very safe bet to hit value against a terrible Miami defense.

MATTHEW STAFFORD: @ HOUSTON ($7,600)

With the way less-mobile quarterbacks like Stafford and Brady have been dealing, it makes very little sense to have them priced under $8k. I’m not mad at it. You might not normally expect a lot of passing volume in a lopsided game, but the Rams have been keeping their foot on the accelerator deep into games. Stafford is one of the best plays at quarterback this week.

JALEN HURTS: @ DETROIT ($7,200)

Coach Sirianni has been equal parts underwhelming and overwhelmed in his first season, but one thing has been constant: Jalen Hurts will score 20 fantasy points every week. Has Hurts been a good quarterback? That is a resounding “no,” but I can’t think of a better spot for a ceiling performance for Philly’s offense than facing the worst defense in the NFL.

CARSON WENTZ: VS TENNESSEE ($5,700)***

It was stunning to see this much-maligned Titans defense hold the mighty Chiefs without a single touchdown last week. If anything, it revealed a level of dysfunction in Kansas City that is much greater than previously thought. The Colts are trending skyward, with one of the better balanced attacks in the AFC. Wentz has returned to his 2017 form. I’m ok if it only lasts one more week against a defense that still has a ton of glaring weaknesses.

TREVOR LAWRENCE: @ SEATTLE ($5,500)

The top pick is quietly growing right before our very eyes. It seems that Lawrence is improving on every pass he throws, where the other rookie signal callers are going through immense growing pains. This Jags team has leveled off after a tumultuous start to Urban Meyer’s first season as a professional coach, with their stud rookie handling his business with grace. Seattle won’t offer much resistance here, especially with Lawrence forecasted to chuck it over 30 times.

Running Backs

DERRICK HENRY: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($8,900)

I got burned by the Henry chalk in tournaments last week, but his performance was still plenty good enough to pay off in cash games. Stacking volume is still the mission in 50/50 contests, so his immense workload is still coveted at this salary.

ALVIN KAMARA: VS TAMPA BAY ($8,700)

Let the record show that Khalil Herbert is the reason why Kamara makes the list in Week 8. The Bears rookie did the impossible last week, trekking his way to 100 yards against a seemingly impermeable Bucs’ front seven. This is very promising for Kamara, who is one of the best dual-threat weapons in the game.

JONATHAN TAYLOR: VS TENNESSEE ($7,200)

This spot was inhabited by Austin Ekeler, until he popped up on the injury report with a hip issue. Taylor will get a big workload in this one, especially now that Frank Reich has finally discovered that JT is nearly unstoppable in the open field if they use him in the screen game.

JOE MIXON: @ NY JETS ($6,900)

Back to the well with Mixon here. He yielded some carries to Samaje Perine late in the Bengals’ romp over the Ravens last week, but looked amazing when he was on the field. Cincinnati has been very effective through the air this season, but it can’t be ignored that Mixon will enter a date with the lowly Jets on fresher legs.

JAMES ROBINSON: @ SEATTLE ($6,600)***

I might be in a small minority here, but I believe JRob to be one of the most well-rounded running backs in the NFL. He has proven himself to be everything and more for the Jags this season, both on the ground and through the air. Seattle was just picked apart by the Saints last week and offer very little in the way of friction for opposing backs. Robinson will see a ton of work in this one, too.

CHUBA HUBBARD: @ ATLANTA ($6,000)

For how much I despise Hubbard’s skill set, his opportunities have been plenty. He was a dud last week in a decent spot, but we revisit him again as a plus cash option against an atrocious Atlanta front. It’s put up or shut up time for Darnold and this offense without CMC. Their schedule is incredibly soft right now.

KENNY GAINWELL: @ DETROIT ($5,000)

It wasn’t like Miles Sanders was receiving enough work to be relevant before he injured his ankle last week. Gainwell was the more reliable back in the receiving game last week, before and after Sanders left. Now, with Sanders out and Boston Scott in, Gainwell stands to get closer to a 50/50 share of the touches against the worst defense in the NFL. This will be fun.

Wide Receivers

COOPER KUPP: @ HOUSTON ($9,000)

For all the dysfunction and calamity surrounding the Texans this season, their secondary has done fairly well defending the wide receiver position. Frankly, that doesn’t mean diddly against the mighty Rams, who are imposing their will on every opponent. Kupp is a target monster for Stafford and is adding an ungodly amount of touchdown upside to boot.

STEFON DIGGS: VS MIAMI ($8,100)

I will be incredibly overweight on the Buffalo stack this week in GPPs. Hell, it might be dumb to fade the Bills in all formats. This is the type of game that stands out to me as a free square. Diggs returned to form before the bye. Even a Xavien Howard shadow won’t be enough to prevent him from hitting value in cash.

MIKE WILLIAMS: VS NEW ENGLAND ($7,700)

It has been a few weeks since we saw the Chargers at their best, but we shouldn’t forget just how dominant Williams has been this season as their X receiver. The Patriots famously shut out LA last season, but this is a new regime. The Staley regime is pulling out all the stops and the Chargers will be airing it out early and often with an injured Ekeler.

DEEBO SAMUEL: @ CHICAGO ($7,400)

I’m not yet convinced that the Bears are a bad team. Sure, they are coached by an arrogant buffoon, but their defense is still stout and the offense looks slightly better under Bill Lazor. I think Chicago crushes the 49ers this week with Nagy on the COVID list, which lends me to believe the 49ers will pepper Deebo to keep up.

DIONTAE JOHNSON: @ CLEVELAND ($6,700)***

Aside from a strange game in Week 5, Johnson has been targeted 10 or more times in every game he has played. The Steelers will be heavily reliant on the short passing game to neutralize Miles Garrett and the rest of the Browns’ pass rush. Diontae is one of the sharpest route runners in football and will be looked to early and often by Big Ben.

CALVIN RIDLEY: VS CAROLINA ($6,600)

How could we overlook Ridley, one of the most talented receivers in the NFL? This is an insulting salary for cash games, since the Alabama product has garnered 10-plus targets in every game since Week 1. Carolina has not been as good in the secondary since their competition stiffened in Week 4. Wheels up in all formats here.

CHRIS GODWIN: @ NEW ORLEANS ($6,400)

The Bucs are concerned that Antonio Brown will miss a lot more time with his ankle injury. This is a huge opening for the uber-talented Godwin. Mike Evans got the fanfare of his three touchdown game, but Godwin was the more targeted player and also hit paydirt. The Saints’ secondary will have their hands full on Sunday.

DEVONTA SMITH: @ DETROIT ($5,500)

The Slim Reaper has done everything asked of him this season, which has been overshadowed by the exemplary play of Jamarr Chase. Don’t hold the moronic coaching against the rookie out of Alabama; he will still flash in positive matchups like this one. I foresee a 10-target game against the pitiful Lions.

JERRY JEUDY*: VS WASHINGTON ($4,900)

I can’t contain my excitement this week. Jeudy is one of my favorite young players and appears to be a full go coming back from a high ankle sprain. He also returns to face a Washington secondary that is one of the worst in the NFL at defending the position. I’ll take the one week free square under $5k.

LAVISKA SHENAULT JR: @ SEATTLE ($4,700)

It took Urban Meyer a week to figure out how to get Shenault looks in the passing game without DJ Chark. Looking elsewhere for upside in tournaments might be wise, but I’ll bank on Viska to get another 10 targets at this value and work around it in cash games.

Tight Ends

KYLE PITTS: VS CAROLINA ($6,300)

The masses are now seeing why I have been calling this guy one of the best receiving prospects in NFL history. He is not a tight end by any description except for how we slot him in fantasy. The legendary rookie will keep his storybook season rolling against a Panthers team that is struggling mightily.

TJ HOCKENSON: VS PHILADELPHIA ($5,400)

I love picking on the Eagles, especially with stud tight ends. Hockenson is appearing healthier in the last two weeks. That’s great, because Philly is horrible at covering athletes in space. Their lack of athleticism and ball skills will make Hock one of the best values on the board.

TYLER HIGBEE: @ HOUSTON ($4,500)***

I don’t think Higbee is very good, but I know the Texans are terrible at covering tight ends. Stafford will find Higbee running wide open all game and his odds of scoring a touchdown in this game are astoundingly high. I might flex a tight end this week again, with Higbee as one of them every time.

HUNTER HENRY: @ LA CHARGERS ($4,200)

We just love to emphasize the power of revenge! It also helps when Henry’s former team is struggling to cover the tight end position. The strength of the outside corners has created a funnel in the middle of the field. This is an edge that Belichick will see and exploit.

CJ UZOMAH: @ NY JETS ($3,700)

Never walk away from a heater. Uzomah is still under $4k, which means fire him up again in cash and GPP contests. We shouldn’t have to tell you that the Jets suck. The Bengals don’t suck, so you should play any of them with confidence this week.

DAN ARNOLD: @ SEATTLE ($2,800)

This is a hunch play. I predict the Jaguars will roll into Lumen Field and beat the Seahawks behind a potent offensive attack. We don’t need much at all from Arnold at this salary, but 5-7 targets is definitely on the table. He is also going to be tough to cover in the red zone.

Cry-mageddon

I’ve amazed myself at the staggering amount of restraint required to not post a single Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) GIF, “This is how I win.” The tears are flowing. The deepest voices have gone shrill. Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season is “Bye-mageddon.”

The waaambulance chasers are already reserving airtime. “If you or a loved one had trouble setting a valid roster in Week 7, you may be entitled to financial compensation.” It’s pandemonium out there in the fantasy football community, but I’m honestly feeling just fine this week. Understanding who is left in this post-apocalyptic football hellscape is half the battle. The other half is pulling your hat down and holding on tight like Chris LeDoux and enjoying the ride.

Sure, some of my best rosters are oozing with studs from the Cowboys, Chargers, Bills, Steelers, Vikings, and Jaguars. Still, out of 46 season-long teams, only one of them made me taste the metallic flavor of imminent death. That team is 5-1, so I’ll take my loss and move on. We still have DFS. We still have the ability to double our money (or better) this week by only worrying about who is on the football field.

The Main Slate is nasty, drab, and gloomy. It still has winners. I don’t need to list the players who are unavailable; you’re already well aware. Add in the injured ones and it might seem desolate to the untrained eye. The Nimble team has the tools and the knowledge to hone in on the best plays with laser precision. The names are irrelevant. The key to saving the world with Bruce Willis this week is finding the best values and nailing down continuing trends. I can already hear Stephen Tyler screaming into the mic, “Don’t wanna close my eyes…”

Week 7 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

KYLER MURRAY: VS HOUSTON ($8,500)

Murray was back to his cash-winning ways in Cleveland last week. The only reason to shy away from him this week is the nice top-end matchups for quarterbacks that cost a little less to roster.

PATRICK MAHOMES: @ TENNESSEE ($8,400)***

Mahomes has been erratic at the game of football, but straight money in fantasy. His “worst” performance was 22 points against a staunch Buffalo defense. This week, he draws the stone-worst secondary in the NFL. Tennessee likely has the firepower to hang with Kansas City, which bodes well for Mahomes’ median score rising.

AARON RODGERS: VS WASHINGTON ($7,500)

The 2020 NFL MVP is a shareholder of Soldier Field in Chicago, too. He returns to Lambeau Field to host the disappointing Washington Football Team. Washington has yet another tough draw, after getting diced up by Patrick Mahomes last week. Rodgers and Adams should feast yet again.

RYAN TANNEHILL: VS KANSAS CITY ($6,400)

For how dominant Derrick Henry has been, Tannehill has slipped back into mediocrity. He will be missing Julio Jones again this week, along with a svelte AJ Brown coming off the Chipotle cleanse. In any case, Tannehill and the Titans will need to chuck the ball around to keep up with KC, who also sports an abysmal secondary.

MAC JONES: VS NY JETS ($5,300)

If you’re going to build around expensive pieces like Henry and Hill this week, you might need to slide into unsavory territory at quarterback. Should you venture down into this abyss, Jones has been consistent and faces a Jets defense that is playing rudderless football.

Running Backs

DERRICK HENRY: VS KANSAS CITY ($9,200)

Derrick Henry in cash, no matter what. The man is generational. The size, speed, and sheer ability shown by King Henry is unmatched in today’s NFL. He is matchup-proof, script-proof, and seemingly tackle-proof. The Chiefs defense will have a hell of a time trying to slow him down and get their offense back on the field.

DARRELL HENDERSON: VS DETROIT ($6,600)***

Back to the well with Hendo, who gets a second-consecutive cupcake matchup. He has burst for days and is getting a hefty workload advantage over Sony Michel. A cash lineup without Henry and Hendo is a losing one this week.

JOE MIXON: @ BALTIMORE ($6,500)

Mixon and Henderson were key features of last week’s Hot Cash article. There is no reason to fade Mixon this week, either. Baltimore is 23rd against opposing running backs, and Mixon is one of the last remaining bellcow backs in the league. If he is healthy, he’s a great cash player.

CORDARRELLE PATTERSON: @ MIAMI ($6,300)

Did you forget about Patterson over the bye week, following the game in London? I didn’t. The Swiss army knife is averaging over 20 DK points per game this season and now goes up against a horrendous Miami defense. Arthur Smith will keep riding the hot hand. That hot hand still hasn’t been Mike Davis and won’t be for a while.

CHUBA HUBBARD: @ NY GIANTS ($6,100)

I shed a tear when I envision what kind of insane numbers a healthy Christian McCaffrey would be putting up over this stretch of games. For the third-straight week, Hubbard faces an impoverished run defense. Hubbard isn’t even a sliver of the player that CMC is, but volume is key. Bad football players can still score fantasy points.

DEANDRE SWIFT: @ LA RAMS ($6,000)

How does DK treat a player averaging 18.2 points per game? They drop his salary to the lowest it has been since Week 3. The algorithm hates Swift, which means I love him every week for cash games. The Rams should absolutely destroy the Lions on Sunday, which opens up the entire second half for Swift to PPR the slate to death.

DAMIEN HARRIS: VS NY JETS ($5,700)

Maybe Bill Belichick has gone soft at his advanced age, but he hasn’t put Harris in the doghouse for very long. He has given some more work to the plodding rookie, Rhamondre Stevenson, but Harris is still getting a ton of work. I don’t see much resistance this week for Harris against the Jets.

Wide Receivers

DAVANTE ADAMS: VS WASHINGTON ($8,900)

The Washington secondary is terrible. Davante Adams is the best wide receiver in the NFL. They cannot and will not cover him. 15-plus targets are on the docket for Sunday and I will try to shoehorn him into my cash lineups wherever possible.

TYREEK HILL: @ TENNESSEE ($8,600)

If the Adams shoe just won’t fit, the Cheetah-print track shoe will slip on like Cinderella. Hill will be another week healed from his thigh contusion, which limited him to a mere 22 DK points last week in Washington. Just imagine the possibilities.

DJ MOORE: @ NY GIANTS ($7,100)

Don’t forget about DJ Moore! Sam Darnold is still heavily targeting him, which has given him an unprecedented number of chances to showcase his game-breaking talent in the open field. After two games with a downtick in production, he is back down to a more reasonable salary. I will be happy to pay that for his volume against the woeful Giants.

CALVIN RIDLEY: @ MIAMI ($6,600)***

Save for a head-scratching Week 1 game plan, Ridley has surpassed ten targets in every single game he has played this season. Just like with Patterson, we are getting salary relief from the bye week. We’re getting Ridley at his lowest salary of the season, by far. He missed the London game for a personal reason before the bye, and will be returning to face a Dolphins defense with a myriad of injuries in the secondary.

BRANDIN COOKS: @ ARIZONA ($6,000)

Can we get any more repetitive in this article? Cooks was my key ingredient wide receiver last week and very quietly surpassed a 3x value. Another 10-plus targets is on the docket this week against the Cardinals. Their defense has been powered by a ruthless pass rush, but their talent at corner is still really bad.

CHRIS GODWIN: VS CHICAGO ($5,900)

With Gronk and AB out this week, both Evans and Godwin are fully in play. Evans is the preferred tournament option, but Godwin in the slot is an automatic cash play against this pass funnel Bears’ defense. Godwin is much too talented to be under $6k, no matter who the Bucs are facing.

JAYLEN WADDLE: VS ATLANTA ($5,600)

Even with a massive $700 markup from last week, it was deserved for the speedy rookie, Waddle. He garnered 13 targets from Tua Tagovailoa last week in London. This week, he faces an Atlanta defense that has defended wide receivers relatively well, but not against great competition.

DARNELL MOONEY: @ TAMPA BAY ($4,600)

Can we get some respect for Mooney on DK? Actually, let’s keep him a well-kept secret for cash games. The Bears don’t pass a lot, but Mooney is still the most-targeted receiver on the team. Although we can’t trust Matt Nagy at all to come up with a good game plan against the league’s best pass funnel defense in Tampa, there should be a nice uptick in an already solid workload for the second-year pro from Tulane.

AMON-RA ST BROWN: @ LA RAMS ($4,100)

The Sun God was targeted seven times last week at $4.2k. The problem? He only clawed his way to 26 receiving yards on five receptions. Goff is a major problem for St Brown’s aDOT figure. This game should be a humiliating blowout, so I do like a likely double dose of targets for the USC rookie in mop-up time.

RASHOD BATEMAN*: VS CINCINNATI ($3,400)

DraftKings still hasn’t caught on to the massive potential of Shoddy B. Fresh off a groin injury, he took the field and seized a 22% target share. That equaled Mark Andrews’ share. Yahoo! DFS already increased Bateman’s salary by 50% from last week, but DK is lagging behind with only a $400 increase. I’ll take that free square every time.

Tight Ends

TRAVIS KELCE: @ TENNESSEE ($7,600)

Surprisingly, the Titans are pretty decent at defending the tight end position. A deeper dive would reveal that they simply haven’t had to face any good ones. Kelce commands a ton of attention on the field, which makes him a decent value. He isn’t my favorite, however, due to his stinger injury and matchup with Kevin Byard.

DARREN WALLER: VS PHILADELPHIA ($6,700)***

Didn’t that Vegas offense look liberated last week? It was the opposite of what I expected, but the Raiders draw another great matchup for tight ends this week. The corners for Philly have played pretty well, but they have been destroyed from the slot. Waller is a premium play this week at a lovely salary.

KYLE PITTS: @ MIAMI ($5,900)

It sounds strange, but I was excited to get up at 6:30 in the morning to watch the Falcons and Jets play in London. Kyle Pitts was in line for a massive day and he didn’t disappoint. The rookie isn’t done yet; the Dolphins are falling apart on defense. I think it also finally clicked for Arthur Smith. He now realizes that he should involve one of the most gifted receiving prospects in NFL history more for better results.

MIKE GESICKI: VS ATLANTA ($4,700)

Just as it isn’t fair (or accurate) to classify Kyle Pitts as a tight end, Gesicki has only lined up at the traditional spot on 12 snaps this season. The Falcons are in the middle of the pack against the pass, but this game has some sneaky shootout potential.

DALLAS GOEDERT: @ LAS VEGAS ($4,600)

It finally happened. Zach Ertz was traded months later than expected, but now the Eagles and Nick Sirianni can run 11 and 21 personnel like they planned to. Goedert will be a huge factor in this offense going forward, especially with the struggles of Jalen Hurts and Jalen Reagor.

CJ UZOMAH: @ BALTIMORE ($3,000)

It may be a statistic inflated by a series of tough matchups, but the Ravens are 29th at defending opposing tight ends. I think another contributing factor has been the poor health of the Baltimore secondary. Uzomah has looked incredible coming off his Achilles tear. Down at this salary, I feel very confident that Uzomah will approach double figures this week.