Nimble w/Numbers

Thank a Hero

I recently saw a graphic that made my eyes bulge. Since declaring independence in 1776, the United States of America has been involved in some sort of war for 229 of the 244 years (as of 2020). With war comes the need for servicemembers. Walking among us today are millions of men and women who voluntarily put their life in peril in the name of protecting the American way of life. Veterans, like my wife’s father (USMC-Vietnam) and two brothers (Army-Iraq x2 and USAF-Afghanistan) and my cousin Jill (USMC-Desert Storm), are heroes in my eyes. To all of the veterans stateside and abroad, I extend my deepest gratitude to you and your families.

We will have pseudo-heroes on the football field come Sunday, with NFL stadiums adorned with a smattering of camouflage and other forms of “Salute to Service” messaging. It’s an unfair comparison, but NFL players do put their bodies on the line for the sake of entertaining us. Football scratches a primal itch for a lot of us, delivering the gladiator blood sport action without a real threat of death. Then, there’s me (and you) on the couch, licking bean dip and wing sauce off our fingers before pounding another American lager. A little DFS action is all I need to get my rocks off on any given Sunday. From the moment that Scott Hanson’s gravelly timbre exclaims, “Seven hours of commercial-free football starts now,” I am entranced with star-spangled eyes. Thanks to those heroes, I am free to play this game I love with relative impunity.

Week 10 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

JOSH ALLEN: @ NY JETS ($7,900)

I think everyone is wondering what the hell happened last week against the Jaguars. Was it the magical Cover-2 shell scheme? Was the “the other Josh Allen” telepathically draining the Buffalo quarterback of his powers to score points? I haven’t the foggiest idea, but he gets to test these theories against the Jets’ abysmal defense. I’m confident it was just an aberration.

TOM BRADY: @ WASHINGTON ($7,600)

What happens when the GOAT gets to square off against a pathetic secondary? You get fireworks. Even with Antonio Brown out and Chris Godwin trending that way, Brady has done more with less better than anyone over his legendary career. Don’t hesitate to roster Tommy Terrific in all formats.

JUSTIN HERBERT: VS MINNESOTA ($7,300)***

The “Machine from Eugene,” as I have dubbed the second-year star from Oregon, has been spectacular in most of his games this season. A home date at SoFi with the putrid Vikings’ defense shouldn’t offer any resistance to this prolific Chargers’ passing attack. Look for Herbert to remedy the recent struggles of Mike Williams in the process of slicing this secondary to pieces.

DAK PRESCOTT: VS ATLANTA ($6,900)

Much like some of the other stud quarterbacks in Week 9, Dak struggled mightily in his first game off the calf injury. As with Josh Allen, I see it as a speed bump on the interstate. Atlanta is terrible on defense when compared to Denver. If Dallas can move the chains this week, they will put up a load of points on the Falcons.

MATT RYAN: @ DALLAS ($6,000)

Matty Ice was one of the bright spots at quarterback in Week 9, and now gets a date with the struggling Cowboys. Look for the Falcons to attack the middle of the field with Gage and Pitts, while testing the perimeter with Cordarrelle Patterson. This contest will have some shootout potential, so Ryan should attempt more than 30 passes.

TAYLOR HEINICKE: VS TAMPA BAY ($5,400)

There hasn’t been anything impressive out of the Washington quarterback after a hot start. Even then, his rushing upside and the perfect passing funnel on the Bucs’ defense means we can expect plenty of scoring opportunities for Heinicke. The Bucs should destroy Washington, so we are counting on Heinicke to take out the trash for us.

Running Backs

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY: @ ARIZONA ($8,400)

It was impossible not to smile as I typed this name for the first time in forever. CMC is the Panthers’ offense. Regardless of quarterback, McCaffrey will tote the rock a bunch of times and put up gaudy fantasy numbers in the process. The most perfect cash game player of his era has rightfully reassumed the throne.

JONATHAN TAYLOR: VS JACKSONVILLE ($8,100)

Many fantasy analysts doubted whether JT was “generational” or not. After the last few weeks, there is nary a detractor to be found. His unique size, speed, vision, quickness, patience, and contact balance is a sight to behold on the football field. The Jags haven’t been terrible against the run, but they are in for a reckoning with Indy. The Colts run their entire offense through the running back position. It took a year and a half, but Frank Reich finally realized that JT is good.

DALVIN COOK: @ LA CHARGERS ($8,000)***

Cook has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons this week. That said, he is still primed for a massive performance against the Chargers. LA is getting mauled up front this season, especially against physical run-first teams like the Vikings. I would be stunned if Cook didn’t go for 25-plus this week with multiple touchdowns.

NAJEE HARRIS: VS DETROIT ($7,900)***

The rookie from Alabama picked up an injury designation this week, but logged a full Friday practice ahead of a salivating matchup with the Lions. This will be Chalk City in tournament play, but Najee’s volume against such a weak run defense leaves me hard-pressed to find a better play at any position on this slate.

AUSTIN EKELER: VS MINNESOTA ($7,600)

Ekeler’s ho-hum performance against the Eagles last week was somewhat disappointing, but it did cause his salary to drop $300 for this home game against the Vikings. I like that. He is still an elite dual-threat running back that is always a strong play in PPR formats.

EZEKIEL ELLIOTT: VS ATLANTA ($7,000)

Volume pays the bills in DFS cash games. Not many backs have toted the rock more over the last few years than Zeke. Atlanta isn’t a slouch up front, but Zeke will get his touches, both on the ground and through the air. He also has a built-in touchdown upside that few running backs in the league have on a weekly basis.

AARON JONES: VS SEATTLE ($6,900)

The Packers just won’t ever let Aaron Jones cook. He is obviously a gifted running back, with a bloodhound’s nose for the end zone and a penchant for the big play. Still, we witnessed him spend more than an entire quarter on the sidelines watching AJ Dillon take valuable touches away. He is still a great value this week against a very weak Seattle run defense, especially if Aaron Rodgers is cleared to play.

D’ERNEST JOHNSON*: @ NEW ENGLAND ($4,700)

No Nick Chubb? No Kareem Hunt? Not even Demetric Felton? No problem for the Browns. Johnson was impressive against a tough Denver defense a couple weeks ago. The Patriots have been less-than-stellar against the run this season. Cleveland will pound the run behind their excellent offensive line and spring Johnson for a great value performance this week.

Wide Receivers

AJ BROWN: VS NEW ORLEANS ($7,800)

Sure, you can add Davante Adams to this list once Aaron Rodgers is cleared, but until then, spend up at running back and save some salary with AJB as the top receiver for cash games. His target share has been massive (over 30%) and he adds some incredible potential after the catch.

TERRY MCLAURIN: VS TAMPA BAY ($7,600)

Value off the bye week has been a staple of my DFS strategy all season. We aren’t getting much of a discount on Scary Terry, but his target volume is near the top of all NFL receivers. Washington will be airing it out early and often against the Bucs, with McLaurin getting the first drink at the trough.

MIKE EVANS: @ WASHINGTON ($6,900)***

If there is a wonderful silver lining to injuries occurring, it is the clarity we get with some of these receiving groups. The Bucs flaunt some of the best starting receivers in the league, but as many as two of them will miss the game in DC. The healthiest of the stars is Evans, who is already among the most-targeted on the team. This is a mismatch made in heaven.

DIONTAE JOHNSON: VS DETROIT ($6,800)

The Steelers spread the ball around a lot more than I expected on Monday night against the Bears. It was the rookie tight end, Freiermuth that scored two touchdowns and an uptick in volume. Diontae is still the bread winner on the outside, especially with Chase Claypool hobbling around. This is a huge matchup advantage for Diontae against the Lions if Big Ben chooses to exploit it.

MIKE WILLIAMS: VS MINNESOTA ($6,600)

The darling of the early season has fallen off sharply the last few weeks. Williams has seen his target share abruptly fall from the loftiest of heights. Against the Vikings, it would behoove the Chargers to attack the outside more than they have lately. Williams is due for a resurgence this week.

MICHAEL PITTMAN, JR: VS JACKSONVILLE ($6,300)

Once thought of as more of a home run tournament-type receiver, Pittman has seen his target share from Carson Wentz hold steady. Wentz trusts the young receiver at all depths on the field now, choosing to pepper him in any situation. His salary is also remarkably low for his recent production.

JERRY JEUDY: VS PHILADELPHIA ($5,300)

On the surface, Philly has done a pretty good job covering outside receivers this season. That was with a healthy Darius Slay, and it belies their ineptitude at forcing incomplete passes. The middle of the field is ripe for the picking against the thoroughly unathletic Eagles’ defense. Jeudy might need to get his numbers through sheer volume, making him a great cash value on Sunday.

RUSSELL GAGE: @ DALLAS ($5,000)

After one game where Gage was active but not involved, he came alive last week with 13.4 points on eight targets. Dallas really struggles to cover the slot, especially if the receiver is savvy and shows good spatial awareness in zone coverage. Gage fits that bill and won’t break the bank.

JAKOBI MEYERS: VS CLEVELAND ($4,800)

It’s one of the most wondrous things in the NFL at the moment. Meyers now has the most receiving yards in NFL history without scoring a single touchdown. I haven’t weighed in on the topic until this week, but I believe he will get his first one on Sunday against the Browns to add to his already-solid workload.

TYLER JOHNSON: @ WASHINGTON ($3,300)***

Just like with Mike Evans, Johnson is a beneficiary of the Antonio Brown injury in this offense. Brady will still be throwing it plenty, and Johnson was one of my top value picks in Week 9. He’s only $200 more expensive than last week and Chris Godwin might also miss Sunday’s game. This is a screaming value and potential free square.

Tight Ends

KYLE PITTS: @ DALLAS ($5,800)

The unicorn has fought through double teams and bracket coverage ever since Calvin Ridley stepped away from the team. He is still putting up decent numbers, even if Matt Ryan seems to lose all concept of accuracy and touch when targeting Pitts in the red zone. I say Pitts scores on a long touchdown against Dallas on Sunday.

DAWSON KNOX: @ NY JETS ($4,500)

His hand might still be mangled, but Knox is back for the Bills on Sunday. The middle of the field is a glaring weakness of the Cover-2 shell defense deployed on Buffalo last week. Knox will fill that gap nicely, should the Jets try to emulate the Jags this week.

NOAH FANT: VS PHILADELPHIA ($4,300)***

Fant was activated off the COVID-19 reserve list just in time for his juiciest matchup of the season. The Eagles are abysmal at linebacker and slot corner, allowing nearly an 80% completion percentage. Fant has the speed and range to really gouge this defense. I’m ready for it.

PAT FREIERMUTH: VS DETROIT ($3,900)

The old dog, Big Ben seems to have found himself a shiny new toy in Freiermuth. The Keystone State folks love the rookie out of Penn State more than their own children at this point. His two touchdowns on Monday night were a precursor to more work, especially with injuries in the receiving corps.

DAN ARNOLD: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($3,500)

The most targeted Jags receiver the last four weeks is…(drumroll)…Dan Arnold? He is a newcomer to Jacksonville, arriving via trade with the Panthers a month ago. He is already logging many of his snaps out wide to take advantage of his size and athleticism. Trevor Lawrence is smartly seeking out his security blanket, which won’t cost much against an Indy defense that struggles to cover any position.

Put a Ring on It

Let me set the scene for you. It was Chico, California on a day that Californians would consider chilly (under 70 degrees). I remember the date now, but it was otherwise an anonymous Monday in November. There were still bodies in the streets around campus sleeping off their Halloween hangovers two days later, but I was a junior Wildcat and surprisingly studious and dedicated to my education. Chico State was and is still is known more for its rowdy nightlife than its rigorous curriculum, but it wasn’t an itch I needed to scratch more than a couple evenings a week.

I was 22 and a regular on the Butte County karaoke circuit. It was an older scene, but one that made me feel right at home. I felt like the episode of Rocko’s Modern Life when Rocko discovered that Heffer was living his best life as “The King” of the local roller rink. Monday nights were open mic night at Madison Bear Garden (or simply, The Bear) and drinks were dirt cheap. The bartenders at The Bear knew me well by then and appreciated that I was a good tipper. The Bear is known for a few things, including a literal cornucopia of random things attached to the walls and ceilings. The back bar room where they held karaoke in cooler months had an entire freaking stagecoach bolted upside down on the ceiling. This night was special because I ended up singing to someone special.

We look back on that first night fondly after 10 years of marriage. The way I “pretended” to be her boyfriend because a bunch of drunk douchebags were lingering around her and her best friend and I was big and scary. She dared me to sing “Your Man” by Josh Turner because she didn’t believe I could sing bass like him. I got her real phone number that night. According to her, it was because I used proper grammar and “had a nice butt.” It hasn’t been a fairytale along the way, like we envisioned, but our best shared laughs pertain to our many adventures through young adulthood together. She is my queen and I am her jester. I don’t think I could hope for any better.

Despite getting absolutely shellacked last week by Scott head-to-head, the Nimble cash process was incredibly solid. We cleaned up easily in 50/50s and multipliers by getting aggressive in certain spots. Our cash games process won’t win every week, but losses are rare and haven’t cast any doubt on whether it’s working. In DFS, you get to put a ring on a different lineup every week. I doubt my wife would be understanding of that lifestyle choice in a different context.

Week 9 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

JOSH ALLEN: @ JACKSONVILLE ($8,200)

Buffalo’s strength of schedule has been truly laughable lately when it comes to opposing defenses. It does toughen up in the second half, but not until they bludgeon the Jags on Sunday. Allen is a rare bird and offers magnificent stability and upside. He’s a great play, as always.

PATRICK MAHOMES: VS GREEN BAY ($7,800)

Remember, I weight volume more heavily than anything else for cash games. The Kansas City defense has been so abysmal that Mahomes can’t help but be a safe play every week. Sometimes the guy has a bad game, like last week, but you can’t fade a player of Mahomes’ magnitude this week in good conscience.

LAMAR JACKSON: VS MINNESOTA ($7,300)***

The DK salary algorithm strikes again! Stars are priced down coming off their bye week because last week’s performance is weighted in the formula. He should be the most popular quarterback in GPPs, but the chalk isn’t so heavy that you ignore his amazing value in a likely shootout game. Jackson is my favorite quarterback play of the week.

JALEN HURTS: VS LA CHARGERS ($6,700)

Along the same lines as Mahomes and Jackson, Hurts played poorly last week and is priced down against the Chargers. Los Angeles defends outside receivers well, but not so much the middle of the field. Philly should do just fine scoring points, with plenty of consolation volume to come in garbage time when Philly is inevitably getting destroyed.

DANIEL JONES: VS LAS VEGAS ($5,600)

Similar to Hurts, Jones is struggling mightily to be a good quarterback this year. That does not mean he isn’t valuable for DFS purposes on any given Sunday. He has good rushing ability and faces a Raiders defense that has a good pass rush, but isn’t that good. Down in this price range, a 20-point performance is more than sufficient.

JORDAN LOVE: @ KANSAS CITY ($4,400)

Nobody should expect Jordan Love to put on a scoring clinic like Aaron Rodgers, but this is the lowest salary for a starting quarterback I have ever seen on DraftKings. The Chiefs have also been absolutely atrocious on defense all season. Just think of the studs you can play with a quarterback who might as well be free.

Running Backs

ALVIN KAMARA: VS ATLANTA ($8,200)

I held off on putting Kamara on this list until Taysom Hill was ruled out this week. Hill is the Kamara killer, doing more to eliminate the joy of rostering him than any defense can. With Trevor Siemian starting, Kamara is in line for a massive workload against one of the worst defenses in the NFL against the running back position.

AUSTIN EKELER: @ PHILADELPHIA ($7,900)

It’s funny how I compared Austin Ekeler to Christian McCaffrey for PPR purposes when CMC was on the shelf. Now that CMC is expected to return, I’m stunned that he is already more expensive to roster than Ekeler. Philly struggles mightily to slow running backs down, especially through the air. This is a smash spot.

AARON JONES: @ KANSAS CITY ($7,200)

A young quarterback’s best friend is a great running game. It’s also a tight end, but the Packers lost Robert Tonyan for the season last week. Jones is an exemplary receiver in his own rite and will be the tip of the spear against the abysmal Chiefs’ defense. His volume is very stable, even when sharing with AJ Dillon. He also is a bloodhound when it comes to finding the end zone, which gives him tremendous upside.

NICK CHUBB: @ CINCINNATI ($6,700)

I simply don’t understand this one. How in the world is one of the very best running backs in the NFL under $7k? I’m not complaining one bit. He only yielded five touches to D’Ernest Johnson last week. The lone touchdown by Johnson is skewing what really happened last week in Chubb’s first game back. He still got 17 touches against a tough defense. I wouldn’t say the Bengals are as good as the Steelers at stopping the run, so even a slight bump in volume could make for a fun afternoon.

MYLES GASKIN: VS HOUSTON ($5,800)

I really think Gaskin stinks as a running back. He doesn’t do anything particularly well and is getting outplayed by his former college and current Dolphins teammate, Salvon Ahmed. He is still getting more opportunities than Ahmed, especially in the passing game. Much like a metronome, Gaskin only scores more than 10 points in odd-numbered weeks. He also gets a date with the Texans for Week 9.

CHASE EDMONDS: @ SAN FRANCISCO ($5,300)***

Despite only scoring 5.4 points against the 49ers earlier in the season, I’m firing up Edmonds as my top cash play at running back this week. With the news that Kyler Murray is a game-time decision, I expect a bump in volume for both Edmonds and James Conner, with the latter useless to me without receiving volume. I expect Edmonds to catch at least five passes and break off a couple big plays on Sunday.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS: @ DALLAS ($4,800)

It has been a pleasant surprise to see the Cowboys in the top-10 of defending running backs this season. I’m not so sure it has to do with their stoutness up front as it does their suspect pass defense, but it beckoned me to dig deeper. The teams that have run the ball effectively against Dallas used a physical runner (Fournette and Harris). Williams is the type of back that should see his volume increase as the season progresses, starting as the tone setter against the Cowboys.

Wide Receivers

TYREEK HILL: VS GREEN BAY ($7,900)

Football is a game of adjustments. The Chiefs have been destroying defenses for three years with Hill’s speed down the field. Recently, defenses have put an umbrella of deep safeties over the top with soft man coverage underneath. Last week, the Chiefs took advantage of that by taking the free short yardage to Cheetah and let him run after the catch. This change in strategy makes Hill a fantastic cash game option, where he has traditionally been a GPP mercenary.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON: @ BALTIMORE ($7,500)

Jefferson is so much fun to watch. He is a gifted technician on the outside, seemingly matchup-proof already in his second NFL season. I have a lot of respect for Marlon Humphrey, but he won’t be shadowing Jefferson on Sunday. He also has a massive disadvantage in the athleticism department when covering Jefferson. I love all the receivers in this shootout game.

ADAM THIELEN: @ BALTIMORE ($6,900)

Some of the Vikings games that turn into high scoring affairs turn into which Minnesota receiver scores 30 PPR points first (because they both do). With the Ravens’ secondary in rough condition, Thielen will have favorable zone looks on nearly every snap. I think he and Jefferson each get double-digit targets this week.

BRANDIN COOKS: @ MIAMI ($6,100)

Praise the Lord that Tyrod Taylor is back! Cooks wasn’t quite as reliable every week with Davis Mills in there, but now that Taylor is returning from the IR we should see a great bump in his usage down the field. Miami is 30th against the wide receiver position. I’m licking my chops this week because the Taylor/Cooks stack is also not drawing very much attention.

JALEN WADDLE: VS HOUSTON ($5,600)

On the other side of the Texans-Dolphins game, attrition is setting in for the Miami receiving corps. Devante Parker has landed on the IR, putting a narrower scope on Waddle and Gesicki. Hollins and the others also should see a bump, but Waddle’s volume when Parker is out has been staggering.

KADARIUS TONEY: VS LAS VEGAS ($5,200)

He’s not your average slot receiver, but Toney has been a reliable weapon for Daniel Jones when he’s on the field. I think he will get plenty of looks this week against the Raiders, especially in the second half. Vegas is probably going to destroy the Giants and I’m happy to cash in the recycling from garbage time.

JERRY JEUDY: @ DALLAS ($5,000)

Jeudy worked himself back in last week to the tune of four receptions for 39 yards. Most of his snaps came from the slot, which is a great place to attack the Cowboys’ secondary that ranks 24th against opposing wide receivers. Jeudy’s ankle passed the stress test against Washington, so a nice increase in targets is inbound.

HUNTER RENFROW: @ NY GIANTS ($4,800)***

The receiver that stands to see the biggest increase in work from the Ruggs fallout is Renfrow. His chemistry with Derek Carr is incredible and he seems to always make the clutch play. The Giants are terrible across the board on defense, so getting a skilled slot weapon for under $5k will be in nearly all of my lineups.

BRANDON AIYUK*: VS ARIZONA ($4,100)

A lot of DFS is spotting patterns. Aiyuk’s playing time and target share is trending upward, while his DK salary is trending downward. After seeing his potential in the second half of last season, I can’t see myself spending down any lower at wide receiver in a cash game with this opportunity screaming at me.

Tight Ends

TRAVIS KELCE: VS GREEN BAY ($7,000)

Kelce is coming off a terrible game. His salary this week matches his lowest of the season and nobody seems to want him against the Packers. I see a player whose target volume has been as steady as any receiver in the league, save for last week’s aberration when Mahomes didn’t seem to even look his way. I expect that to change immediately this week.

DARREN WALLER: @ NY GIANTS ($6,200)

Waller is a gifted receiver. He has athletic traits that very few possess. Derek Carr loves to pepper Waller with targets every chance he gets. The Giants have a horrible defense. For all of these reasons, you should feel great about rostering Waller this week.

MARK ANDREWS: VS MINNESOTA ($5,500)

I will have plenty of exposure to the players in this game, especially with Lamar and Andrews. The one strength of the Minnesota defense is their pass rush, so having a tight end like Andrews is a great weapon to get open quickly and also adjust his routes when Jackson scrambles. Big week incoming for this offense.

MIKE GESICKI: VS HOUSTON ($4,900)***

Just like with Jalen Waddle, Gesicki stands to see a ton of target volume with Devante Parker hitting the IR. It’s great timing for Gesicki that he will step into that opportunity against the worst defense in the NFL against tight ends. To put it mildly, I’m ecstatic that Gesicki is under $5k.

DALLAS GOEDERT: VS LA CHARGERS ($4,500)

For how strong the Chargers are in coverage against outside receivers, they are equally bad over the middle of the field. They allow the third-most points to opposing tight ends, making Goedert a very nice play this week at a good value.

ALBERT OKWUEGBUNAM: @ DALLAS ($2,600)

It is believed that Noah Fant will not be activated in time for Sunday’s game with COVID, so Albert O is thrusted into a matchup with the porous Dallas Cowboys. I’ll also be monitoring the status of his knee injury. If anything happens to Albert O, Eric Saubert is at the minimum $2,500 and would be a nice pivot. You can also play Tyler Conklin of the Vikings at $3k.