This is a Robbery!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 6 

11/23/2019

I’m not sure if “legally” I should be saying this, but hell here goes. I mean, it’s just the Internet. No one really gets in trouble for anything that happens here. It’s all fantasy. Don’t tell me you have no idea what the “F” in “DFS” stands for. Well, this weekend (checks to make sure the wife isn’t coming down the basement stairs) sh*ts getting real. I’m Mr. Green and I am going to commit a robbery. The boys and I’ve been planning this job all week. The team has been assembled, we’ve cased the joint and gone over the plan a million times. Everyone knows their role. In and out. Real quick. No mistakes and if we pull it off, we all walk away with piles of cash and then fade into obscurity like Kesyer Soze. Without a trace. It’s full proof.

My best friend turns 40 today and tomorrow we are celebrating by invading our local casino and sportsbook for a day of teasers, fat stacks, river cards, steaks, parlays, winners, losers and robberies! Here’s the plan. It’s pretty simple. The Lions are a measly -3.5. against the expansion Washington football team and they are by far the worst franchise and team in the NFL. The whole crew is betting the Lions and legally steal money from the sportsbook. Sorry to disappoint those thinking that I was breaking bad so early in my DFS writing career. Make sure to follow along at @NimblewNumbers on Twitter for all the action!

Winners!

Speaking of a robbery, let’s take a look at some of the DFS winners who took home all our cash last week. Analyzing this winning line-up, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal line-up for week 12.

Winning lineup for Week 11 Fanduel $130K Sun NFL Dive ($1 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 11 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • In an upset, there no QB/WR stack for the winners. I did notice the the winners featured a QB/RB stack and a QB/RB/TE stack, but I’m not sure this correlates with their victories. If you stacked Josh Allen and John Brown, you did it right in week 11.
  • If I have to tell you to pay up front for CMC, you are doing DFS wrong. (I’m just going to keep leaving this bullet in, until he doesn’t score 20+ a week.)
  • John Brown and Michael Thomas are the only 2 WRs to have over 50 receiving yards in every game this season. John Brown and Michael Thomas.
  • Calvin Ridley was featured in both winning lineups and also in my Low cost/high value plays for week 10.
  • The best low cost, high value plays of week 11 includes the aforementioned, John Brown ($5,900), who returned a value of 5.1x . Josh Allen ($7,800) returned 4.3x the value. Ryan Griffin ($6,300) led the way for for TEs with 19.4 fantasy points and a value 4.0x.

NFL Week 12 Primer

Mike Tagliere and Bobby Sylvester create some of the best fantasy football content available in the FF community. If you don’t have the FantasyPros Chrome plug-in installed on your browser, are you even really playing fantasy football? Today I want to highlight the incredible FantasyPros Week 12 Primer. It is an indispensable tool that I use each week to help construct my DFS player pool and build my lineups. Read it each week and your fantasy football team will thank me later (but mostly Mike and Bobby).

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Russell
Wilson
$8,200
Matt
Ryan
$7,900
Jameis
Winston
$7,600
Baker
Mayfield
$7,500


WR
Tyler
Lockett
$7,400

DK
Metcalf
$6,700
Julio
Jones
$8,400

Calvin
Ridley
$6,700
Mike
Evans
$8,000

Chris
Godwin
$7,800
Odel
Beckham
$7,000 

Jarvis
Landry
$6,900

High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


RB
Christian
McCaffery
$10,500
Derrick
Henry
$8,400
Alvin
Kamara
$8,300
Nick
Chubb
$8,200

WR
Michael
Thomas
$9,200
Julio
Jones
$8,400
Mike
Evans
$8,000
Julian
Edelman 
$7,500

TE
Darren
Waller
$6,200
Zach
Ertz
$6,100

DST
Detroit
Lions
$5,000
Pittsburg
Steelers
$5,000



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Sam
Darnold
$7,400
Derek
Carr
$7,400
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$7,200 

RB
Bo
Scarbrough
$6,700
Phillip
Lindsay
$6,300
Patrick
Laird
$4,900

WR
Jamison
Crowder
$6,500
D.J.
Moore
$6,400
James
Washington
$6,100

WR
Taylor
Gabriel
$5,600
Russell
Gage
$5,300
Cole
Beasley
$5,300

TE
Ryan
Griffin
$5,400
Ben
Watson
$5,300
Dallas
Goedert
$5,200 
DSTDallas
$3,200

Weekly Best Lineup

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBMatt Ryan$7,900
RBChristian McCaffery$10,500
RBAlvin Kamara$8,300
WRCalvin Ridley$6,700
WRJarvis Landry$7,800
WRTaylor Gabriel$5,600
TEBen Watson$5,600
FLXMiles Sanders$5,600
DSTDallas Cowboys$3,200

I wish you all the best in week 12!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the outstanding work that Mike Tagliere and Bobby Sylvester do at FantasyPros.

Mike Tagliere
@MikeTagliereNFL
Lead NFL Writer/Analyst for @FantasyPros
Co-host on the FantasyPros football podcast. Top-6 ranker twice in
@Fantasypros accuracy contest. Aspiring novelist.
fantasypros.com/author/mike-ta…
Bobby Sylvester
@bobbyfantasypro
Podcast Host & Fantasy Analyst for FantasyPros

St. Louis (Metro East)
podcast.fantasypros.com

Posted byJesse SimpsonNovember 9, 2019Posted inUncategorizedLeave a commenton Establish the StackEditEstablish the StackPosted byJesse SimpsonNovember 16, 2019Posted inUncategorizedTags:DFSFantasy FootballFFFootballNFLWinnersLeave a commenton OMG! Look at that Ratio!EditOMG! Look at that Ratio!

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