Establish the Stack

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 4 

11/9/2019

Work. It gets in the way of pretty much everything I enjoy doing. I had originally planned on writing a stand alone article reflecting on my winning picks from last week, but, yep you guessed it, work totally got in the way. They say do what you love, so that’s why I’ve worked my mid-week reflections into my weekly winners article.

My Best Plays of Week 9

Position Player Points Value 
QBRussell Wilson39.224.6x
RBChristian McCaffery36.13.7x
WRTyler Lockett33.74.5x
TEZach Ertz20.83.5x
DSTPittsburgh 194.9x

The double QB/WR/WR stack of Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and MK Metcalf was a must start against the Bucs pass funnel defense. McCaffery is a must start every week in DFS. Full Stop. Zach Ertz got rolling with 11 targets for 9 receptions and his first TD in a month. Pittsburgh was a sneaky play coming in at $3,900 last week. You are welcome!

My Worst Plays of Week 9

Position Player Points Value 
QBAaron Rodger12.941.6x
RBAaron Jones3.40.4x
WRRobby Anderson4.30.7x
TEDarren Waller 6.20.9x
DSTSeahawks30.6x

A good leader takes responsibilities for their actions and owns their mistakes. As a good leader, I obviously blame Aaron Rodgers for throwing 35 times and averaging a whopping 5.17 Air Yards per throw. Keep throwing 4 yard dig routes to DeVante Adams if you want to pass for under 170 yards each week Aaron. The emergence of Hunter Renfrow in Oakland has capped Darren Waller’s weekly upside for the time being. Hopefully he breaks out towards the tail end of the season, as he faces one of the easiest schedule for TE the rest of the way. Has any defense successfully managed to corral both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this season? I should have known better. Adjustments to the algorithm have already been made.

Winners, Yes Please

Onto the winners! I am only featuring one winning line-up this week because it was good enough to win multiple Fanduel GPP tournaments. Analyzing his winning line-up, we will deconstruct his roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal line-up for week 10.

Winning lineup for Week 9 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Russell Wilson and company were my top stack of the week for a reason last week and they did not disappoint. They over-matched a Buc’s defense that ranks 29th in YPG at 300.9 and has now given up 16 TD passes.
  • If I have to tell you to pay up front for CMC, you are doing DFS wrong.
  • Melvin Gordon is back! 20 carries that led to 2 TDs. His price will be adjusted accordingly moving forward, so you will pay to play in the weeks to come.
  • Establish the Pass! Lockett, Metcalf and Marvin Jones Jr. all played in game that feature high implied team totals (Rotocurve) and bad pass defenses. It’s basically like printing money.
  • The best low cost, high value plays of week 9 included TE Noah Fant ($4,600) returned 4.1x the value. Preston Williams ($5,500) returned 3.9x the value. Melvin Gordon was the best RB value 3.9x at a cost ($6,300) with a value of 5.7x.

NFL Week 10 Implied Team Totals (Rotocurve)

This week, I will be highlighting another step in my process of building the core of my DFS line-ups. One of the tools that I couldn’t live without each week, is the NFL implied team total by Rotocurve. I use this tool to identify which teams are expected (by Vegas) to score the most points, and then I identify players who are expected to be featured prominently by their teams offense and work them into my lineups.

( https://rotocurve.com/ )

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Drew
Brees
$8,300
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,000
Jameis
Winston
$8,000
Kyler
Murray
$7,700
Matt
Ryan
$7,500


WR
Michael
Thomas
$8,700

Ted
Ginn Jr.
$5,300
DeVante
Adams
$7,800

*Aaron
Jones
$7,600
Mike
Evans
$8,600

Chris
Godwin
$8,200
Christian
Kirk
$5,700 

Larry
Fitzgerald
$5,400
Julio
Jones
$7,900

Calvin
Ridley
$5,300

*QB/RB stack

High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Lamar
Jackson
$8,600
Patrick
Mahomes
$8,400
Drew
Brees
$8,000
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,000
Jameis
Winston
$7,900

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$10,500
Mark
Ingram II
$8,000
Aaron
Jones
$7,600
Todd 
Gurley
$7,200
Derrick
Henry
$7,000

WR
Michael
Thomas
$8,700
Mike
Evans 
$8,600
Cooper 
Kupp
$8,100
Tyreek
Hill
$8,000
Julio
Jones
$7,900

TE
Travis
Kelce
$6,700
Austin 
Hooper
$6,600
Jared
Cook
$5,800


DST
Baltimore
Ravens 
$5,000
LA
Rams
$4,600




Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Ryan
Tannehill
$7,500
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$7,100
Brian
Hoyer
$7,100 

RB
Devin
Singletary
$6,700
David
Montgomery
$6,400
Damien
 Williams
$5,300

WR
Robert
Woods
$6,900
Zach
Pascal
$6,400
Golden
Tate
$6,300

WR
John 
Brown
$5,800
DeVante
Parker
$5,800
Christian
Kirk 
$5,700

TE
Gerald
Everett 
$5,700
Vance
McDonald
$5,600
Mike
Gesicki
$5,100 
DSTKansas City
Chiefs
$3,700

New Feature: This week I introduce my weekly best line-up. This is the line-up that I will be playing in single entry tournaments and all of the smaller GPP tournaments as well.

Weekly Best Lineup

POS Player Name Price
QBDrew Brees$8,300
RBTodd Gurley$7,200
RBMark Ingram II$8,000
WRMichael Thomas$8,700
WRZach Pascal $6,400
WRTed Ginn$5,300
TEAustin Hooper$6,600
FLXChristian Kirk$5,700
DSTKC Chiefs$3,700

I wish you all the best in week 10!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the work of Adam Pfeifer and the great team at Rotocurce.

Adam Pfeifer@APfeifer24I write about fantasy sports more than anyone should. Marvin Jones and Tre White. Forever. DFS writer @RotoCurve. Also dabble @4for4football & @Awesemo_ComRotoCurverotocurve.com

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