Nimble w/Numbers
Vol.1 Issue 4
11/9/2019
Work. It gets in the way of pretty much everything I enjoy doing. I had originally planned on writing a stand alone article reflecting on my winning picks from last week, but, yep you guessed it, work totally got in the way. They say do what you love, so that’s why I’ve worked my mid-week reflections into my weekly winners article.
My Best Plays of Week 9
| Position | Player | Points | Value |
| QB | Russell Wilson | 39.22 | 4.6x |
| RB | Christian McCaffery | 36.1 | 3.7x |
| WR | Tyler Lockett | 33.7 | 4.5x |
| TE | Zach Ertz | 20.8 | 3.5x |
| DST | Pittsburgh | 19 | 4.9x |
The double QB/WR/WR stack of Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and MK Metcalf was a must start against the Bucs pass funnel defense. McCaffery is a must start every week in DFS. Full Stop. Zach Ertz got rolling with 11 targets for 9 receptions and his first TD in a month. Pittsburgh was a sneaky play coming in at $3,900 last week. You are welcome!
My Worst Plays of Week 9
| Position | Player | Points | Value |
| QB | Aaron Rodger | 12.94 | 1.6x |
| RB | Aaron Jones | 3.4 | 0.4x |
| WR | Robby Anderson | 4.3 | 0.7x |
| TE | Darren Waller | 6.2 | 0.9x |
| DST | Seahawks | 3 | 0.6x |
A good leader takes responsibilities for their actions and owns their mistakes. As a good leader, I obviously blame Aaron Rodgers for throwing 35 times and averaging a whopping 5.17 Air Yards per throw. Keep throwing 4 yard dig routes to DeVante Adams if you want to pass for under 170 yards each week Aaron. The emergence of Hunter Renfrow in Oakland has capped Darren Waller’s weekly upside for the time being. Hopefully he breaks out towards the tail end of the season, as he faces one of the easiest schedule for TE the rest of the way. Has any defense successfully managed to corral both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this season? I should have known better. Adjustments to the algorithm have already been made.
Winners, Yes Please
Onto the winners! I am only featuring one winning line-up this week because it was good enough to win multiple Fanduel GPP tournaments. Analyzing his winning line-up, we will deconstruct his roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal line-up for week 10.
Winning lineup for Week 9 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.
Analyzing the Weekly Winners
- Russell Wilson and company were my top stack of the week for a reason last week and they did not disappoint. They over-matched a Buc’s defense that ranks 29th in YPG at 300.9 and has now given up 16 TD passes.
- If I have to tell you to pay up front for CMC, you are doing DFS wrong.
- Melvin Gordon is back! 20 carries that led to 2 TDs. His price will be adjusted accordingly moving forward, so you will pay to play in the weeks to come.
- Establish the Pass! Lockett, Metcalf and Marvin Jones Jr. all played in game that feature high implied team totals (Rotocurve) and bad pass defenses. It’s basically like printing money.
- The best low cost, high value plays of week 9 included TE Noah Fant ($4,600) returned 4.1x the value. Preston Williams ($5,500) returned 3.9x the value. Melvin Gordon was the best RB value 3.9x at a cost ($6,300) with a value of 5.7x.
NFL Week 10 Implied Team Totals (Rotocurve)
This week, I will be highlighting another step in my process of building the core of my DFS line-ups. One of the tools that I couldn’t live without each week, is the NFL implied team total by Rotocurve. I use this tool to identify which teams are expected (by Vegas) to score the most points, and then I identify players who are expected to be featured prominently by their teams offense and work them into my lineups.
QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups
QB | Drew Brees $8,300 | Aaron Rodgers $8,000 | Jameis Winston $8,000 | Kyler Murray $7,700 | Matt Ryan $7,500 |
WR | Michael Thomas $8,700 Ted Ginn Jr. $5,300 | DeVante Adams $7,800 *Aaron Jones $7,600 | Mike Evans $8,600 Chris Godwin $8,200 | Christian Kirk $5,700 Larry Fitzgerald $5,400 | Julio Jones $7,900 Calvin Ridley $5,300 |
*QB/RB stack
High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
QB | Lamar Jackson $8,600 | Patrick Mahomes $8,400 | Drew Brees $8,000 | Aaron Rodgers $8,000 | Jameis Winston $7,900 |
RB | Christian McCaffery $10,500 | Mark Ingram II $8,000 | Aaron Jones $7,600 | Todd Gurley $7,200 | Derrick Henry $7,000 |
WR | Michael Thomas $8,700 | Mike Evans $8,600 | Cooper Kupp $8,100 | Tyreek Hill $8,000 | Julio Jones $7,900 |
TE | Travis Kelce $6,700 | Austin Hooper $6,600 | Jared Cook $5,800 | ||
DST | Baltimore Ravens $5,000 | LA Rams $4,600 |
Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
QB | Ryan Tannehill $7,500 | Ryan Fitzpatrick $7,100 | Brian Hoyer $7,100 |
RB | Devin Singletary $6,700 | David Montgomery $6,400 | Damien Williams $5,300 |
WR | Robert Woods $6,900 | Zach Pascal $6,400 | Golden Tate $6,300 |
WR | John Brown $5,800 | DeVante Parker $5,800 | Christian Kirk $5,700 |
TE | Gerald Everett $5,700 | Vance McDonald $5,600 | Mike Gesicki $5,100 |
| DST | Kansas City Chiefs $3,700 |
New Feature: This week I introduce my weekly best line-up. This is the line-up that I will be playing in single entry tournaments and all of the smaller GPP tournaments as well.
Weekly Best Lineup
| POS | Player Name | Price |
| QB | Drew Brees | $8,300 |
| RB | Todd Gurley | $7,200 |
| RB | Mark Ingram II | $8,000 |
| WR | Michael Thomas | $8,700 |
| WR | Zach Pascal | $6,400 |
| WR | Ted Ginn | $5,300 |
| TE | Austin Hooper | $6,600 |
| FLX | Christian Kirk | $5,700 |
| DST | KC Chiefs | $3,700 |
I wish you all the best in week 10!
May the fantasy gods be with us all!
Nimble w/Numbers
Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the work of Adam Pfeifer and the great team at Rotocurce.
| Adam Pfeifer@APfeifer24I write about fantasy sports more than anyone should. Marvin Jones and Tre White. Forever. DFS writer @RotoCurve. Also dabble @4for4football & @Awesemo_ComRotoCurverotocurve.com |
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