Nimble w/Numbers
Vol. 1 Issue 3
November is upon us and that means, incredibly, half of the NFL regular season is already in the books. When it kicked off nine weeks ago, who predicted the NFL szn would be swept up in Minshew Mania, that Darren Waller would be the TE1 or we would be looking at Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin at WR2 and WR3 overall? I am sure everyone in New England could have told us that their DST would be the ranked 6th most fantasy points in PPR (Fantasy Pros). What a great time to be alive and paying DFS! Today I am examining three winning Fanduel tournament lineups from week 8. I will analyze what the winners did well and use those insights to help construct a winning lineup for week 9. I’m not doing it along. Each week I will introduce you to part of my process and highlight what I have learned from fantasy footballs’ best and brightest analytical minds along the way. A must read for me each week are the Rotoworld NFL WEEK 9 INJURY DASHBOARD and the Rotoworld NFL WEEK 9 WR/CB MATCHUPS AND TE ANALYSIS, both written by the incomparable Ian Hartitz. These tools help me to determine who is playing and who they will be matched up with in coverage each week. So lets begin with what we can learn from the winners.
Winning lineup for Week 8 Fanduel $17K Sun NFL Pooch Punt ($0.5 to enter) contest.
Winning lineup for Week 8 Fanduel $75K Sun NFL Pooch Punt ($0.25 to enter) contest.
Winning lineup for Week 8 Fanduel $2.5M Sun NFL Pooch Punt ($9 to enter) contest.
Analyzing the Weekly Winners
- The entry $17K scored the most points (235.02) out the three winner and featured a quarterback/running back/wide receiver stack of Brees/Murray/Thomas. The target share for Michael Thomas is a league leading 32.5%. Combine that with Latavius Murray’s 9 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets and you get 20 out of 34 (59%) receptions being funneled Thomas and Murray’s way.
- All three winners featured Murray ( week 8 NwN play), Mike Evans and week 8 super stud Tevin Coleman. If you didn’t have this combination you didn’t win. Coleman was lighting in a bottle, but both Murray and Evans were heavily featured in games that were predicted to be high scoring.
- You had to pay up front to grab New England’s DST, but the return on investment yielded a weekly winner with a return of 4.2x the value.
- All three lineups included players who featured prominently in a high scoring shout outs or one-sided beat downs with high implied team totals (Rotocurve). The Saints (30.5) and the Rams (30.25) had the two highest implied team totals of week 8. Cooper Kupp accounted for 59% of the receiving yards in the game and added a touchdown. Looking at the implied team total isn’t a perfect predictor of who will score the points, but it can point you in the direction of players who might be featured prominently and have week winning potential.
- The best low cost, high value plays of week 8 included Tevin Coleman ($6,200) returned 5.9x the value. Mike Evans ($7,400) returned 5.0x the value. Ryan Griffin ($4,000) led all TE with a value of 5.7x.
From what I learned in week 8, here are the factors that I am taking into consideration when targeting my players for inclusion in my lineups (all prices are from Fanduel).
QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups
QB | Russell Wilson $8,600 | Matthew Stafford $7,900 | Dak Prescott $7,800 | Derek Carr $7,300 |
WR | Tyler Lockett $7,500 DK Metcalf $6,700 | Kenny Golladay $7,600 Danny Amendola $6,000 Marvin Jones $5,700 | Amari Cooper $8,000 Michael Gallup $6,600 | Tyrell Williams $6,300 Hunter Renfrow $5,400 |
QB/RB stacks with favorable match-ups.
| QB | Aaron Rodgers $8,100 | Kirk Cousins $7,800 | Sam Darnold $7,300 | Phillip Rivers $7,200 |
RB | Aaron Jones $7,700 | Dalvin Cook $9,000 | Le’veon Bell $7,000 | Austin Ekeler $6,500 |
Injury/Opportunity Bump
RB | Mark Walton $5,700 | Adrian Peterson $5,700 | Alexander Mattison $5,400 | Jaylen Samuels $5,000 | *Rex Burkhead $5,000 |
WR | Alshon Jeffery $6,600 | Mike Williams $5,700 | Kenny Stills $5,500 | DJ Moore $5,400 | Daesean Hamilton $4,800 |
*Monitor Sunday to determine if James White is active.
High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
QB | Russell Wilson $8,600 | *Patrick Mahomes $8,500 | Aaron Rodgers $8,000 | Lamar Jackson $8,000 | Matt Stafford $7,900 |
RB | Christian McCaffery $9,700 | Dalvin Cook $9,000 | Aaron Jones $7,700 | Josh Jacobs $7,200 | Le’veon Bell $7,000 |
WR | Chris Godwin $8,100 | Amari Cooper $8,000 | Tyreek Hill $7,700 | Kenny Golladay $7,700 | Tyler Lockett $7,500 |
TE | Darren Waller $6,800 | Hunter Henry $6,400 | Evan Engram $6,300 | Zach Ertz $6,000 | |
DST | Buffalo Bills $5,000 | Seattle Seahawks $4,900 |
Mid to Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
QB | Sam Darnold $7,300 | Derek Carr $7,300 | Ryan Fitzpatrick $8,000 | Matt Moore $6,500 | Mitch Trubisky $6,500 |
RB | Derrick Henry $6,800 | David Montgomery $6,600 | Austin Ekeler $6,500 | Jordan Howard $6,300 | Frank Gore $6,200 |
WR | DK Metcalf $6,700 | Michael Gallup $6,600 | Tyrell Williams $6,300 | Robby Anderson $6,200 | Corey Davis $5,300 |
TE | Jonnu Smith $5,500 | Vance McDonald $5,300 | Eric Ebron $5,200 | TJ Hockenson $5,000 | Ryan Griffin $5,000 |
DST | Cleveland Browns $4,300 | Pittsburgh Steelers $3,900 |
I wish you all the best in week 9!
May the fantasy gods be with us all!
Nimble w/Numbers
Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Most of the heavy lifting this week came from Ian Hartitz from Rotoworld.
| Ian Hartitz @Ihartitz NFL | @Rotoworld_FB | President of the Cordarrelle Patterson fan club | The most important play is the next one |
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