Let There Be Winners!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol. 1 Issue 3

November is upon us and that means, incredibly, half of the NFL regular season is already in the books. When it kicked off nine weeks ago, who predicted the NFL szn would be swept up in Minshew Mania, that Darren Waller would be the TE1 or we would be looking at Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin at WR2 and WR3 overall? I am sure everyone in New England could have told us that their DST would be the ranked 6th most fantasy points in PPR (Fantasy Pros). What a great time to be alive and paying DFS! Today I am examining three winning Fanduel tournament lineups from week 8. I will analyze what the winners did well and use those insights to help construct a winning lineup for week 9. I’m not doing it along. Each week I will introduce you to part of my process and highlight what I have learned from fantasy footballs’ best and brightest analytical minds along the way. A must read for me each week are the Rotoworld NFL WEEK 9 INJURY DASHBOARD and the Rotoworld NFL WEEK 9 WR/CB MATCHUPS AND TE ANALYSIS, both written by the incomparable Ian Hartitz. These tools help me to determine who is playing and who they will be matched up with in coverage each week. So lets begin with what we can learn from the winners.

Winning lineup for Week 8 Fanduel $17K Sun NFL Pooch Punt ($0.5 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 8 Fanduel $75K Sun NFL Pooch Punt ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 8 Fanduel $2.5M Sun NFL Pooch Punt ($9 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • The entry $17K scored the most points (235.02) out the three winner and featured a quarterback/running back/wide receiver stack of Brees/Murray/Thomas. The target share for Michael Thomas is a league leading 32.5%. Combine that with Latavius Murray’s 9 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets and you get 20 out of 34 (59%) receptions being funneled Thomas and Murray’s way.
  • All three winners featured Murray ( week 8 NwN play), Mike Evans and week 8 super stud Tevin Coleman. If you didn’t have this combination you didn’t win. Coleman was lighting in a bottle, but both Murray and Evans were heavily featured in games that were predicted to be high scoring.
  • You had to pay up front to grab New England’s DST, but the return on investment yielded a weekly winner with a return of 4.2x the value.
  • All three lineups included players who featured prominently in a high scoring shout outs or one-sided beat downs with high implied team totals (Rotocurve). The Saints (30.5) and the Rams (30.25) had the two highest implied team totals of week 8. Cooper Kupp accounted for 59% of the receiving yards in the game and added a touchdown. Looking at the implied team total isn’t a perfect predictor of who will score the points, but it can point you in the direction of players who might be featured prominently and have week winning potential.
  • The best low cost, high value plays of week 8 included Tevin Coleman ($6,200) returned 5.9x the value. Mike Evans ($7,400) returned 5.0x the value. Ryan Griffin ($4,000) led all TE with a value of 5.7x.

From what I learned in week 8, here are the factors that I am taking into consideration when targeting my players for inclusion in my lineups (all prices are from Fanduel).

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups


QB
Russell
Wilson
$8,600
Matthew
Stafford
$7,900
Dak
Prescott
$7,800
Derek
Carr
$7,300


WR
Tyler
Lockett
$7,500

DK
Metcalf
$6,700
Kenny
Golladay
$7,600

Danny
Amendola
$6,000

Marvin
Jones
$5,700
Amari
Cooper
$8,000

Michael
Gallup
$6,600
Tyrell
Williams
$6,300

Hunter
Renfrow
$5,400

QB/RB stacks with favorable match-ups.

QBAaron
Rodgers
$8,100
Kirk
Cousins
$7,800
Sam
Darnold
$7,300
Phillip
Rivers
$7,200

RB
Aaron
Jones
$7,700
Dalvin
Cook
$9,000
Le’veon
Bell
$7,000
Austin
Ekeler
$6,500

Injury/Opportunity Bump   


RB
Mark
Walton
$5,700
Adrian
Peterson
$5,700
Alexander
Mattison
$5,400
Jaylen
Samuels
$5,000
*Rex
Burkhead
$5,000

WR
Alshon
Jeffery
$6,600
Mike 
Williams
$5,700
Kenny 
Stills 
$5,500
DJ
Moore
$5,400
Daesean
Hamilton
$4,800

*Monitor Sunday to determine if James White is active.

High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Russell
Wilson
$8,600
*Patrick
Mahomes
$8,500
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,000
Lamar
Jackson
$8,000
Matt
Stafford
$7,900

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$9,700
Dalvin
Cook
$9,000
Aaron
Jones
$7,700
Josh
Jacobs
$7,200
Le’veon
Bell
$7,000

WR
Chris 
Godwin
$8,100
Amari
Cooper
$8,000
Tyreek
Hill
$7,700
Kenny
Golladay
$7,700
Tyler
Lockett
$7,500 

TE
Darren
Waller
$6,800
Hunter
Henry
$6,400
Evan
Engram
$6,300
Zach
Ertz
$6,000


DST
Buffalo
Bills
$5,000
Seattle
Seahawks
$4,900




Mid to Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Sam
Darnold
$7,300
Derek
Carr
$7,300
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$8,000
Matt
Moore 
$6,500
Mitch
Trubisky
$6,500

RB
Derrick
Henry
$6,800
David
Montgomery
$6,600
Austin
Ekeler
$6,500
Jordan
Howard
$6,300
Frank
Gore
$6,200

WR
DK
Metcalf
$6,700
Michael
Gallup
$6,600
Tyrell
Williams
$6,300
Robby
Anderson
$6,200
Corey
Davis
$5,300 

TE
Jonnu
Smith
$5,500
Vance
McDonald
$5,300
Eric
Ebron
$5,200
TJ
Hockenson
$5,000
Ryan
Griffin
$5,000

DST
Cleveland
Browns 
$4,300
Pittsburgh
Steelers
$3,900




I wish you all the best in week 9!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Most of the heavy lifting this week came from Ian Hartitz from Rotoworld.

Ian Hartitz
@Ihartitz
NFL | @Rotoworld_FB
| President of the Cordarrelle Patterson fan club |
The most important play is the next one

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