Nimble w/Numbers
Vol.1 Issue 5
11/16/2019
85. That is the number of hours that I worked this week. I get paid for 40. That means that I worked for less than half price this week. As the Twitter says, “I got Ratioed!” Don’t feel too bad for me though. As I sit down to write this, my wife just left with the girls for a birthday party. I have four free hours to do what I love, write DFS. (Which, nobody in-particular asked me to do, so there is that.) Pink Floyd is blasting, I’ve built a raging fire to keep me warm, my basement is cleaned, my beer is cold and it’s time to pick winners.
Full transparency, my DFS ratio last week saw me come out on top, up a staggering $0.25. I definitely already blew through the winnings on a Monday night Hail Mary GPP play. Easy come easy go. Winning at DFS, especially max entry GPP tournaments, requires building a strong core group of players to anchor your lineups. Last week my core player pool was too large and not strategically focused enough to support overall success. This week, I am going to streamline the plays and shrink the player pools to include a core group of players who have breakout potential on Sunday. Looking for redemption, armed with what we have learned, we set our sights upon an intriguing set of week 11 NFL match-ups.
My Best Plays of Week 10
| Pos | Player | Points | Value |
| QB | Lamar Jackson | 33.42 | 3.9x |
| RB | Derrick Henry | 32.1 | 4.6x |
| WR | Christian Kirk | 34.8 | 6.1x |
| TE | Travis Kelce | 17 | 2.5x |
| DST | Baltimore | 24 | 4.8x |
Lamar Jackson was in 25% of my lineups and I am kicking myself for not going 100% Lamar. Live and learn. Lamar is in your lineup against all terrible defenses (see Miami). Derrick Henry got lose and I still don’t think it is fair that a man that big, can run that fast. He is a beast. Christian Kirk scored his first, second, and third TD of the year against the Buc’s defense. Ryan Finley. Why? I’ll tell you why, to score the most points for your DFS team. Big fan of your work Ryan. I’ll be taking a special interest in you again, later in this article.
My Worst Plays of Week 10
| Pos | Player | Points | Value |
| QB | Drew Brees | 11.48 | 1.4x |
| RB | Todd Gurley | 7.3 | 1.0x |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | 4.3 | 0.7x |
| TE | Mike Gesicki | 2.3 | 0.4x |
| DST | Chiefs | 5 | 1.4x |
Raise your hand if you saw Dree Brees being sacked 6 times by Hotlanta’s vaunted defense. Cooper Kupp was 33% owned last week. With 0 fantasy football points scored, there is a chance you were among the handful of the DFS Twitter who reacted like this…
Iky Gesicki. And the Chief’s run defense continues to Jekyll and Hyde. Trust no one.
Winners! Yes Please!
Onto the winners! I am only featuring one winning line-up this week because it was good enough to win multiple Fanduel GPP tournaments. Analyzing his winning line-up, we will deconstruct his roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal line-up for week 11.
Winning lineup for Week 10 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.
Analyzing the Weekly Winners
- Kyler Murray/Christian Kirk stack was deadly. Imagine doing something like that against the Buc’s defense. Any given Sunday, I guess.
- If I have to tell you to pay up front for CMC, you are doing DFS wrong. (I’m just going to keep leaving this bullet in, until he doesn’t score 20+ a week.)
- Derrick Henry carried 23 times for 188 YDS and 2 TDs. GIVE HIM THE DAMN BALL!
- Tyreek Hill had 11 REC on 19 TGTS for 157 YDS and 1 TD. So many targets.
- The best low cost, high value plays of week 10 includes the aforementioned, Christian Kirk ($5,700), who returned a value of 6.1x . Darius Slayton ($5,600) returned 5.2x the value. Ronald Jones ($6,300) was a good value play at RB with a value 3.0x.
NFL Week 11 Implied Team Totals
I use this tool to identify which teams are expected (by Vegas) to score the most points, and then I identify players who are expected to be featured prominently by their teams offense and work them into my lineups.
QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups
QB | Lamar Jackson $8,800 | Drew Brees $8,300 | Dak Prescott $8,100 | Kyle Allen $7,200 |
WR | *Mark Andrews $6,900 Hollywood Brown $5,600 | Michael Thomas $8,700 Tre’quan Smith $4,900 | Amari Cooper $8,100 Michael Gallup $6,700 | Curtis Samuel $6,300 D.J. Moore $6,000 |
*QB/TE stack
High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
QB | Lamar Jackson $8,800 | Drew Brees $8,300 | Dak Prescott $8,100 | Jameis Winston $7,600 |
RB | Christian McCaffery $10,500 | Zeke Elliott $8,400 | Josh Jacobs $8,000 | Leonard Fournette $7,200 |
WR | Michael Thomas $9,000 | Mike Evans $8,200 | Chris Godwin $8,000 | Julio Jones $7,800 |
TE | Mark Andrews $6,900 | Darren Waller $6,700 | Jared Cook $6,000 | |
DST | 49ers $4,900 | Minn $4,700 |
Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
QB | Matt Ryan $7,600 | Derek Carr $7,400 | Kyle Allen $7,200 |
RB | Tevin Coleman $6,700 | Joe Mixon $6,600 | Brian Hill $5,900 |
WR | Tyrell Williams $6,200 | D.J. Moore $6,000 | Mohamed Sanu $5,800 |
WR | Hunter Renfrow $5,700 | Calvin Ridley $5,500 | Terry McLaurin $5,500 |
TE | O.J. Howard $5,300 | Noah Fant $5,100 | Greg Olsen $5,100 |
| DST | Dallas $4,100 |
New Feature: This week I introduce my weekly best line-up. This is the line-up that I will be playing in single entry tournaments and all of the smaller GPP tournaments as well.
Weekly Best Lineup
| POS | Player Name | Price |
| QB | Jameis Winston | $7,600 |
| RB | Josh Jacobs | $8,000 |
| RB | Tevin Coleman | $6,700 |
| WR | Mike Evans | $8,200 |
| WR | Julio Jones | $7,800 |
| WR | Michael Gallup | $6,700 |
| TE | O.J. Howard | $5,300 |
| FLX | Miles Sanders | $5,600 |
| DST | Dallas Cowboys | $4,100 |
I wish you all the best in week 11!
May the fantasy gods be with us all!
Nimble w/Numbers
| This weeks shout out goes to me. I’ve earned it. Check me out at https://twitter.com/NimblewNumbers Weekly DFS Content – Winners |
Posted byJesse SimpsonNovember 9, 2019Posted inUncategorizedLeave a commenton Establish the StackEditEstablish the Stack
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