OMG! Look at that Ratio!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 5 

11/16/2019

85. That is the number of hours that I worked this week. I get paid for 40. That means that I worked for less than half price this week. As the Twitter says, “I got Ratioed!” Don’t feel too bad for me though. As I sit down to write this, my wife just left with the girls for a birthday party. I have four free hours to do what I love, write DFS. (Which, nobody in-particular asked me to do, so there is that.) Pink Floyd is blasting, I’ve built a raging fire to keep me warm, my basement is cleaned, my beer is cold and it’s time to pick winners.

Full transparency, my DFS ratio last week saw me come out on top, up a staggering $0.25. I definitely already blew through the winnings on a Monday night Hail Mary GPP play. Easy come easy go. Winning at DFS, especially max entry GPP tournaments, requires building a strong core group of players to anchor your lineups. Last week my core player pool was too large and not strategically focused enough to support overall success. This week, I am going to streamline the plays and shrink the player pools to include a core group of players who have breakout potential on Sunday. Looking for redemption, armed with what we have learned, we set our sights upon an intriguing set of week 11 NFL match-ups.

My Best Plays of Week 10

Pos Player Points Value 
QBLamar Jackson33.423.9x
RBDerrick Henry32.14.6x
WRChristian Kirk34.86.1x
TETravis Kelce172.5x
DSTBaltimore244.8x

Lamar Jackson was in 25% of my lineups and I am kicking myself for not going 100% Lamar. Live and learn. Lamar is in your lineup against all terrible defenses (see Miami). Derrick Henry got lose and I still don’t think it is fair that a man that big, can run that fast. He is a beast. Christian Kirk scored his first, second, and third TD of the year against the Buc’s defense. Ryan Finley. Why? I’ll tell you why, to score the most points for your DFS team. Big fan of your work Ryan. I’ll be taking a special interest in you again, later in this article.

My Worst Plays of Week 10

Pos Player Points Value 
QBDrew Brees11.481.4x
RBTodd Gurley7.31.0x
WRCooper Kupp4.30.7x
TEMike Gesicki2.30.4x
DSTChiefs51.4x

Raise your hand if you saw Dree Brees being sacked 6 times by Hotlanta’s vaunted defense. Cooper Kupp was 33% owned last week. With 0 fantasy football points scored, there is a chance you were among the handful of the DFS Twitter who reacted like this…

Iky Gesicki. And the Chief’s run defense continues to Jekyll and Hyde. Trust no one.

Winners! Yes Please!

Onto the winners! I am only featuring one winning line-up this week because it was good enough to win multiple Fanduel GPP tournaments. Analyzing his winning line-up, we will deconstruct his roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal line-up for week 11.

Winning lineup for Week 10 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Kyler Murray/Christian Kirk stack was deadly. Imagine doing something like that against the Buc’s defense. Any given Sunday, I guess.
  • If I have to tell you to pay up front for CMC, you are doing DFS wrong. (I’m just going to keep leaving this bullet in, until he doesn’t score 20+ a week.)
  • Derrick Henry carried 23 times for 188 YDS and 2 TDs. GIVE HIM THE DAMN BALL!
  • Tyreek Hill had 11 REC on 19 TGTS for 157 YDS and 1 TD. So many targets.
  • The best low cost, high value plays of week 10 includes the aforementioned, Christian Kirk ($5,700), who returned a value of 6.1x . Darius Slayton ($5,600) returned 5.2x the value. Ronald Jones ($6,300) was a good value play at RB with a value 3.0x.

NFL Week 11 Implied Team Totals 

I use this tool to identify which teams are expected (by Vegas) to score the most points, and then I identify players who are expected to be featured prominently by their teams offense and work them into my lineups.

https://eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/index.html

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Lamar
Jackson
$8,800
Drew
Brees
$8,300
Dak
Prescott
$8,100
Kyle
Allen
$7,200


WR
*Mark
Andrews
$6,900

Hollywood
Brown
$5,600
Michael
Thomas
$8,700

Tre’quan
Smith
$4,900
Amari
Cooper
$8,100

Michael
Gallup
$6,700
Curtis
Samuel
$6,300 

D.J.
Moore
$6,000

*QB/TE stack

High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Lamar
Jackson
$8,800
Drew
Brees
$8,300
Dak
Prescott
$8,100
Jameis
Winston
$7,600

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$10,500
Zeke
Elliott
$8,400
Josh
Jacobs
$8,000
Leonard
Fournette
$7,200

WR
Michael
Thomas
$9,000
Mike
Evans 
$8,200
Chris
Godwin
$8,000
Julio
Jones
$7,800

TE
Mark
Andrews
$6,900
Darren
Waller
$6,700
Jared
Cook
$6,000

DST
49ers
$4,900
Minn
$4,700



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Matt
Ryan
$7,600
Derek
Carr
$7,400
Kyle
Allen
$7,200 

RB
Tevin
Coleman
$6,700
Joe
Mixon
$6,600
Brian
Hill
$5,900

WR
Tyrell
Williams
$6,200
D.J.
Moore
$6,000
Mohamed
Sanu
$5,800

WR
Hunter
Renfrow
$5,700
Calvin
Ridley 
$5,500
Terry
McLaurin 
$5,500

TE
O.J.
Howard
$5,300
Noah
Fant
$5,100
Greg
Olsen
$5,100 
DSTDallas
$4,100

New Feature: This week I introduce my weekly best line-up. This is the line-up that I will be playing in single entry tournaments and all of the smaller GPP tournaments as well.

Weekly Best Lineup

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBJameis Winston$7,600
RBJosh Jacobs$8,000
RBTevin Coleman$6,700
WRMike Evans$8,200
WRJulio Jones$7,800
WRMichael Gallup$6,700
TEO.J. Howard$5,300
FLXMiles Sanders$5,600
DSTDallas Cowboys$4,100

I wish you all the best in week 11!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

This weeks shout out goes to me. I’ve earned it. Check me out at https://twitter.com/NimblewNumbers
Weekly DFS Content – Winners

Posted byJesse SimpsonNovember 9, 2019Posted inUncategorizedLeave a commenton Establish the StackEditEstablish the Stack

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