Nimble w/Numbers

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

Dobermans and Razor Wire

Before I wax poetic about my return to form last week, I would like to wish the Simpson family a very merry Christmas. A man is only as good as his supporting cast and Rose and the girls tolerate Scott at a dosage level that inferior beings would quickly succumb to. All kidding aside, Scott is a brother to me. The parallels we share from 3,000 miles apart are remarkable. We each have enough empathy for one another to share stories and experiences without judgment.

Scott’s attempt to defeat me for the third-consecutive week was thwarted when Mark Andrews put on a clinic against the Packers. The rest of my Week 15 lineup was shadier than the business practices of a repo car lot. I put together a tougher pack of guard dogs this week. Our respective Cash and GPP articles were near perfect matches this week, so it’s no wonder that there will be only a few swing players in this week’s Clash. I only need a couple more wins to clinch the season series. Scott doesn’t know yet, but the Clash loser buys the winner a nice bottle of whiskey. Cheers to you, brother!

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles– $6,400

PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 19: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) yells to the crowd during the game between the Washington Football Team and the Philadelphia Eagles on December 21, 2021 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

This is the type of offense that Nick Sirianni gets the very most out of his young quarterback. Hurts has been one of the very best fantasy quarterbacks all season, but we benefit from the Tuesday game pricing blind spot this week. The Giants are a pathetic excuse for a franchise and might give up 300 rushing yards to the Birds, with Hurts doing his best Josh Allen impersonation.

RB – Cordarrelle Patterson – Atlanta Falcons – $6,700

Sexy Flexy isn’t picking up a lot of fanfare this week, after putting up a rare dud in Week 15. Patterson is still a cheat code in PPR, picking up an insane amount of high-value touches each game. He also has tremendous touchdown upside with his specialized role in the Arthur Smith offense. Detroit has failed to slow down any type of running back or wide receiver this season. That’s nice, because Cordarrelle is both.

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 19: Cordarrelle Patterson #84 of the Atlanta Falcons runs the ball in the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,900

The only thing missing from JRob’s solid performance last week was the big play. I suspect they will come in bunches this week against the Jets’ historically bad season against running backs. Darrell Bevell believes in giving Robinson a full workload, early and often. I believe he could go for 30-plus points this week.

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 19: James Robinson #25 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs the ball as Garret Wallow #32 of the Houston Texans falls while looking to make a tackle during the third quarter at TIAA Bank Field on December 19, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)

WR – Odell Beckham Jr. – LA Rams – $5,300

Cooper Kupp is obviously the alpha dog of this receiving corps, but don’t sleep on OBJ’s ever-increasing role. The Vikings’ secondary is putrid enough to feel very confident in Beckham’s potential at nearly a $4k discount off Kupp. From what we’ve already seen from OBJ in LA, it’s safe to say that the Browns be the Browns.

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 13: Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. #3 of the Los Angeles Rams stands on the sidelines during the third quarter of the NFL game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on December 13, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Rams defeated the Cardinals 30-23. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $9,100

I know I just talked about leveraging Kupp with Beckham, but there is absolutely zero chance I’m forgoing the league’s most productive receiver against the worst coverage unit in football. Regardless of his cap hit on DK, the 20-point floor is ultra-coveted in cash games like this.

INGLEWOOD, CA – DECEMBER 21: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams pushes off Sidney Jones #23 of the Seattle Seahawks after a complete pass during the game at SoFi Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

WR – Byron Pringle – Kansas City Chiefs – $3,300

Even with Tyreek Hill getting the green light to come off the COVID list, I’m all about Pringle’s big-play ability against a vulnerable Pittsburgh back end. Mahomes has shown more trust in Pringle than with Hardman or Robinson. Needing only double digits to 3-max value on a player with this much potential is exactly what I’m looking for to put the cherry on top of a DFS build.

TE – Dallas Goedert – Philadelphia Eagles – $5,100

Mark Andrews and Goedert were each smashing successes in Week 15. The former helped me hit one of my best scores of the season and the latter padding my wallet on the Tuesday slate. Goedert, like Jalen Hurts, was priced for Week 16 before his massive Week 15 game on Tuesday. This kind of edge is very helpful in cash games to fortify lineup builds with the most potential value. Plus, the Giants really suck.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 21: Dallas Goedert #88 of the Philadelphia Eagles warms up prior to the game against the Washington Football Team at Lincoln Financial Field on December 21, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

FLEX – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $5,700

It is Monty season, you guys just might not be aware at this point. He touched the ball 23 times last week against Minnesota, which included five receptions. The Vikings are much tougher on running backs than the Seahawks, who allow the second-most points to opposing running backs in the NFL (only the Jets are worse). A sub-$6k Monty in this situation feels like Santa left it under the tree.

DST – Chicago Bears – $2,500

It is a calculated risk to use a struggling defense, but stacking the Bears with Monty gives a nice correlation to my build. I also don’t fear the Seahawks’ offense one bit. Russell Wilson has been horrible since returning from the dreadful mallet finger injury. He is in typical late-season Mr. Ultra-Limited form and I expect the Bears to get after him.

Down, But Not Out

Last week my comeback was cut short when Dak Prescott shit the bed and Pat Freiermuth was knocked out of the game with an injury. Bo ended my short-lived 2-game winning streak before it ever got going. This week I am down, but not out. I’ve assembled a Week 16 team that I am confident will be able to take Bo down. Our lineups are eerily similar, both rostering Jalen Hurts, David Montgomery, James Robinson, Cooper Kupp, and Byron Pringle. It will come down to matchups like OBJ vs. Keenan Allen and Mark Andrews vs. Dallas Goedert to settle it. I’m confident my team will bring me one step closer to my ultimate goal of winning the 2021 Clash of The Beard and Bellies Championship!

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles – $6,500

Death, Taxes, and Jalen Hurts in Cash. Hurts has been consistent all season long, scoring 19 or more DraftKings points in 10 of 13 games. RunTheSims.com has Hurts as the top point per dollar play this week for quarterbacks. The Giants are a shell of themselves and Hurts should be able to move the ball downfield all game long. I just love that Bo is playing him as well.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $5,700

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CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – DECEMBER 20: David Montgomery #32 of the Chicago Bears carries the ball during the first quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field on December 20, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

David Montgomery rolls into Week 16 averaging 16.2 DraftKings points per game over his last four games. This week Montgomery faces a Seattle Seahawks rush defense that ranks 31st in the NFL, giving up 29.4 points per game. Expect Matt Nagy to feed Montgomery all game long. A potential negative games script could also mean more targets as the Bears play catchup. I’m not shocked at all that Montgomery found his way into Bo’s lineup this week as well.

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,900

James Robinson is back!! Last week he saw 24 opportunities, rushing for 75 yards and a score, picking up 17.8 DraftKings points along the way. This week Robinson faces the New York Jets defense that ranks 32nd to running backs this season. Their futility is remarkable. They have surrendered over 2,500 rushing and passing yards combined and 25 total touchdowns. Robinson is currently projected around 10% rostership, making him a great play in all GPP formats this week.

WR – Keenan Allen – LA Chargers – $7,700

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 16: Keenan Allen #13 of the Los Angeles Chargers celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at SoFi Stadium on December 16, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Keenan Allen is a sixth amongst NFL wide receivers with 134 targets this season. Allen has a 27% target share and over his last seven games, Allen is averaging 10.9 targets per game. That’s translated into 20.5 DraftKings points per game. With Austin Ekeler OUT this week on the NFL’s COVID-19 list, the offense should be on Herbert’s shoulders, making Allen a top play this week. Bo is going to be kicking himself for not rostering him.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $9,100

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 21: Ugo Amadi #28 of the Seattle Seahawks tackles Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams on a pass play during the second quarter of a game at SoFi Stadium on December 21, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Cooper Kupp leads all NFL wide receivers in targets (164), receptions (122), receiving yards (1,625), and touchdowns (14). Kupp has scored over 30 DraftKings points in six games this year. He’s the best wide receiver play each and every week. Don’t overthink this one. Kupp is a Gronk smash into your lineup this week.

WR – Byron Pringle – Kansas City Chiefs – $3,300

The Byron Pringle play has lost s bit of its bloom given that both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are not expected to be cleared to play on Sunday. This will ultimately limit Pringle’s upside. Thankfully Bo took the bait on Pringle as well so I won’t be wallowing alone.

TE – Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – $7,000

BALTIMORE, MD – DECEMBER 19: Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) makes a leaping one-handed catch over the middle but can bring it down for a catch during the Green Bay Packers versus Baltimore Ravens NFL game at M&T Bank Stadium on December 19, 2021 in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Mark Andrews is the TE1 this year in DraftKings scoring, averaging 18.2 points per game. Andrews leads all NFL tight ends with 122 targets, 85 receptions, and eight touchdowns. He’s averaging 10.6 targets per game over his last five games and is the Ravens’ number one receiving threat whether Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley is under center. His 11% rostership is reasonable given his 30 plus point upside this week. Andrews is worth running out naked or pairing with Huntley if he gets the start in place of Lamar.

Flex – Cameron Brate – Tampa Bay Buccaneers– $2,500

It’s no secret that Tom Brady will be down both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans this week against the Carolina Panthers. I’m not expecting too much from Cameron Brate this week, all I need is 8 points. If he scores a touchdown, it’s icing on the cake.

DST – Minnesota Vikings – $2,400

The Minnesota Vikings are the best punt defense that I can afford with my remaining $2,400. I’m not thrilled about it, but there’s nothing I can do about it if I want to play studs like Keenan Allen and Mark Andrews in my lineup. It’s a deal with the devil for sure.

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

Welcome to NFL Week 16! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo McBrayer’s GPP Lineups, check out our Nimble Patreon (FREE all December). All Nimble’s Numbers will be powered by RuntheSims.com this year. Signup for a free RunTheSims account today!!

High Priced – Quarterback

Justin Herbert, LA Chargers – $7,200

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 16: Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers passes the ball under pressure from Tershawn Wharton #98 of the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half of a game at SoFi Stadium on December 16, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

According to RunTheSims.com, Justin Herbert has one of the highest ceilings of all the Week 16 quarterbacks. Over his last four weeks, Herbert is averaging over 28 points per game. This week he faces a Texans defense that down a significant number of defensive starters due to a COVID-19 outbreak. I love pairing Herbery up with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in this matchup. Stacking both players allows you to leverage the field a bit. If you are looking to differentiate, currently Josh Palmer is only projected for 1% rostership, making him the best leverage play in this game given Jalen Guyton’s absence due to being placed on the NFL’s COVID-19 list. The Chargers and Herbert should have no problem finding the end-zone this week against the hapless Texans.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals – $5,900

DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 19: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals warms-up before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on December 19, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

The last time Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals played the Ravens, Burrow passed for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. Rookie sensation, Ja’Marr Chase, turned 10 targets into eight receptions for 201 yards and a score. Tee Higgins saw 15 targets that game, as Burrow exploited a weak Ravens’ secondary all day long. Fast forward to Week 16 and not much has changed for the Ravens. They just got torched by Aaron Rodgers for 268 yards passing and three scores. I love Burrow’s $5,900 price tag in this matchup. Apparently, I am the only one, because Burrow is currently only projected for a 3% rostership this week. I will be stacking Burrow with both of his top wide receivers, C.J. Uzomah is also in play after exploding for 91 yards and two scores in Week 8.

Value – Quarterback

Tim Boyle, Detroit Lions – $4,000

I personally wasn’t aware that quarterbacks could be priced as low as $4,000. You learn something new every day. One thing that I learned a while back is that the Atlanta Falcons are not good at defense. Particularly speaking, the Falcons rank 31st against quarterbacks, giving up 20 points per game to single callers. Boyle isn’t going to score 30 points, but he could score 20 and at only 4K, he’s worth a roll of the dice. The salary relief should open up your build and enable you to surround Boyle with higher-priced studs. Don’t be afraid to play Boyle in larger GPP contests.

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High Priced – Running Back

Cordarrelle Patteron, Atlanta Falcons – $6,700

Cordarrelle Patterson is the man. This season he has been the Atlanta Falcons offense, averaging over 17 DraftKings points per game. He’s scored double-digit points in 10 of 13 appearances. This week Patterson faces a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 29th against running backs, having given up over 2,00 total yards and 22 touchdowns. Patterson should be unleashed in this matchup, free to score willy nilly all over the Lions. He’s one of my favorite running back plays in high-stakes GPP contests.

Mid-Range – Running Back

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,900

Value – Running Back

Justin Jackson, LA Chargers – $4,200

Austin Ekeler is currently on the NFL COVID-19 list, and it looks like he will ultimately miss Week 16 as a result. Last week, Justin Jackson carried the ball 13 times for 86 yards, which averaged out to 6.6 yards per carry. Jackson is expected to see the majority of touches in the Chargers backfield. It’s anyone’s guess how goal-line work will be split, but Jackson should be in the mix. Jackson’s role is less defined makes him a value upside-side play at only $4,200. His 11% projected rostership is a bit high, so make sure that the rest of your lineup isn’t too chalky.

High Priced – Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp, LA Rams – $9,100

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders – $6,800

“Third and Renfrow” might be the best wide receiver nickname in the NFL. Hunter Renfrow has lived up to the billing, turning his 38 targets over the last four weeks into 21.4 DraftKings points per game. Renfrow has over 100 yards receiving and at least nine targets in three of the last four weeks. Darren Waller is expected to miss Week 16, paving the way for Renfrow to see double-digit targets in a home underdog role against the Denver Broncos. Renfrow is live in mid-sized single-entry GPP tournaments.

Value – Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $4,900

PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 14: Antonio Brown #81 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates with Ronald Jones II #27 after scoring a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 14, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

I’m shocked that Antonio Brown is currently only projected for 15% DraftKings rostership for Week 16. With Chris Godwin shelved and Mike Evans looking like he will miss the matchup with the Carolina Panthers, Antonio “Fake COVID-19 Card” Brown looks to be the beneficiary. According to all practice reports, Brown has looked great this week after returning from an ankle injury. I’m expecting Brown to see 8-10 targets this week and serve as Tom Brady’s security blanket. I’m comfortable rolling Brown out in all contest formats. His $4,900 price tag makes him one of the most versatile plays on the Week 16 slate.

High Priced – Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – $7,000

Mid-Range – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,200

TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 12: Rob Gronkowski #87 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers attempts to catch a ball thrown by Tom Brady #12 during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Raymond James Stadium on December 12, 2021, in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady have combined for 90 passing touchdowns in their careers. Brady is without Chris Godwin and will most likely be without Mike Evan as well. This week Gronk is priced up $200, despite only scoring 4.9 points last week. Currently, he’s the highest rostered tight end on the DraftKings main slate, picking up 14% projected rostership. It makes sense given the Buccaneers’ wide receiver injuries. I am not really worried about the chalk on Gronk, he’s the best tight end option that isn’t named Mark Andrews.

Value – Tight End

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears– $3,300

Cole Kmet has 32 targets, 20 receptions, and close to 200 yards receiving in his last four games. Eight targets for $3,300 is practically stealing. The Seattle Seahawks rank 27th against the tight end, having given up 801 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. Kmet hasn’t found the end-zone yet this year, but I’m banking on him to slump bust it big and score over 14 DraftKings points.

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Hot Cash From the King of Spice

Deck the Halls With Bows and Folly

It’s Christmas Eve. A palpable chill lingers in the wintry air, but there is smoke emanating from my debit card. When I was a kid, my mom would pull out all the stops to ensure that my sister and I would have cherished memories. Ever the festive one, Ma would allow us to open one gift on Christmas Eve. She would let us pick whichever one we wanted, even though she didn’t set out the non-pajama gifts until after we had crashed from our sugar cookie and cocoa high.

I married into a family that has its own traditions. My mother-in-law has been compiling gifts since December 26th last year. My wife and daughter didn’t fall far from that pre-lit tree, each barely able to contain their excitement and anticipation until all gifts are opened tonight on Christmas Eve. My wife and I didn’t splurge on gifts this year, instead opting for ones that we could share and remember. Our little girl will be nine years old next week and is showing an interest in singing. We got her a year of professional vocal lessons. My mom got her a record player with a couple vinyl records that she could put on the desk in her bedroom and belt out the same Imagine Dragons song on loop. I’m not one to get too fired up about much more than the food on Christmas, but I cannot wait to see her reaction.

Christmas Eve is such a special day that it also means that we spend Christmas Day in a vegetative state. We turn off our phones, play The Christmas Story on TV, and nap in between putting batteries in new toys and trying to figure out how to switch our gas fireplace back on. This year we have NFL football to watch on Christmas Day, which means I technically have some work to do on the holiday. Don’t worry, I won’t toil too much over picking apart the action. I’ll want to save my energy for Sunday.

If you played along last week, you would have had James Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Deebo Samuel, and Mark Freaking Andrews in your cash lineups. We were on cloud nine when many others were blubbering about the Cry-mageddon 2.0 that was Week 15. DFS is the answer to the season-long issue of last minute inactives from injuries or COVID protocol. Winning at DFS can make up for a truly dreadful redraft or dynasty season with swirling uncertainty and horrific timing to stars missing games.

Week 16 Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

Gold-Plated

JUSTIN HERBERT: @ HOUSTON ($7,200)

The second-year pro out of Oregon is still firmly in my MVP conversation. The Chargers need to take care of business to stay in the running for the AFC West division title and the trappings that come with home field advantage and potential first round bye. It’s unlikely that Austin Ekeler will be activated off the COVID list for this one, giving Herbert a green light to air it out against one of the league’s worst defenses.

Rocking the Suburbs

MATTHEW STAFFORD: @ MINNESOTA ($6,700)

I would call the Vikings a pass funnel, but they’re not good at stopping the run either. Minnesota has nobody with a prayer of covering the likes of Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee. How will they do with those guys and also the league’s most productive receiver this season, Cooper Kupp? They won’t do well. Stafford will easily crack 300 passing yards, hopefully with a handful of touchdowns in tandem.

JALEN HURTS: VS NY GIANTS ($6,400)***

I’ll give credit to Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen. They have put Hurts in a great position to maximize his unique set of skills. We saw that on full display against Washington last week. The Eagles have become a lethal running team. They have another tantalizing matchup this week against the abominable Giants. Am I the only one who sees a lot of Josh Allen in Jalen Hurts? This is an amazing value for an elite fantasy player.

Under the Table

JOE BURROW: VS BALTIMORE ($5,900)

I’m not going dumpster diving this week at quarterback. I just found out that my only value player, Justin Fields, is getting benched for Nick Foles this week (thanks, Matt Nagy). The Ravens tattered secondary had no solution for the Bengals earlier in the season. Baltimore is a true pass funnel defense, so I’ll be playing a lot of Burrow & Co this week in all formats.

Running Backs

Gold-Plated

ALEXANDER MATTISON: VS LA RAMS ($6,800)

The way to beat the Rams is by bludgeoning them with the run game. With Dalvin Cook on the shelf yet again, Mattison has risen from the bench to inherit a huge workload. I’d play more of him if I thought his ceiling wasn’t somewhat capped by potential game script.

CORDARRELLE PATTERSON: VS DETROIT ($6,700)***

It finally happened. Sexy Flexy finally turned back into a pumpkin last week, thanks to absurd usage by idiot savant, Arthur Smith. The Falcons’ fake sharp of a coach has already put an airtight lid on the most exciting receiving prospect of the 21st century. I pray he doesn’t do the same to 2021’s fantasy darling, Patterson against the putrid Lions’ defense. I’ll be playing him everywhere, pacing nervously and chugging boozy eggnog.

Rocking the Suburbs

JAMES ROBINSON: @NY JETS ($5,900)

Robinson was good last week, not great. He really only lacked the one big play that vaults him from solid to slate breaker. I think he has a great chance to bust a few big’uns against the god damn Jets this Sunday. We at least have the assurance that Darrell Bevell enjoys feeding his best player, unlike that buffoon that used to pretend to coach the Jags.

DAVID MONTGOMERY*: @ SEATTLE ($5,700)

The Nick Foles news has sent the DFS community into a tizzy. The projected roster percentage attached to Monty is already tumbling. I will be getting even heavier on him and gingerbread cookies. The volume will be immense and the Seahawks are horrible at defending running backs.

Under the Table

JUSTIN JACKSON: @ HOUSTON ($4,200)

Austin Ekeler said it himself yesterday: pick up Justin Jackson because he still doesn’t feel well and will likely remain on the COVID list Sunday. Jackson is having the healthiest season of his career, which isn’t saying much. He is still very talented and leaps and bounds better than Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree. If I’m down here, this is the only running back I remotely trust.

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 28: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams avoids a tackle by Henry Black #41 of the Green Bay Packers during the second halfat Lambeau Field on November 28, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Wide Receivers

Gold-Plated

COOPER KUPP: @ MINNESOTA ($9,100)***

Everyone now knows that Kupp is on pace to break Megatron’s single season receiving yards record, albeit in one more game. The pride of Yakima is also within reach of Michael Thomas’ record for receptions in a season. Cooper Kupp is also facing the absolute worst pass coverage unit in the NFL this week. For cash games, eat the chalk with a grin.

KEENAN ALLEN: @ HOUSTON ($7,700)

The player with the most to gain from the absence of Austin Ekeler will be Allen. Ekeler is the Chargers’ catalyst in the short passing game. I foresee Allen getting peppered with short area targets from the slot in this game. This will add up the PPR points in bunches and easily return value in cash games.

Rocking the Suburbs

HUNTER RENFROW: VS DENVER ($6,800)

Much like with Patterson, Renfrow was a letdown for the first time in recent memory. He was on such a torrid pace, but now we will see who is loyal to him as a target-hogging PPR machine. Assuming he won’t be as popular this week, I’ll have Third & Renfrow sprinkled across my builds in all formats.

ANTONIO BROWN: @ CAROLINA ($4,900)

Is he bat shit crazy? Yes. Did he mislead his team and the NFL with a fake vaccination card? Yes. Does he enjoy paying his personal chef? No. Is he recovering from a bad ankle injury? Yes. Is he appropriately priced on DraftKings? No! We have to be mindful of the chalk here, but the Bucs are without Godwin and Evans against Carolina, leaving AB as the top option for Tom Brady in Week 16.

Under the Table

BYRON PRINGLE: VS PITTSBURGH ($3,300)

I will still be all over this matchup, even if Hill and Kelce are activated on Sunday. Pringle has been the more reliable of the “WR3 Carousel” in KC, over Hardman and Robinson. The Steelers’ secondary is getting barbecued down the field this season. Pringle is showing up as one of the best overall values on this entire slate.

ISAIAH MCKENZIE: @ NEW ENGLAND ($3,000)

My 2020 Week 17 darling, McKenzie is back on the radar this week. Cole Beasley and Gabe Davis are both unvaccinated and tested positive for COVID this week. McKenzie is a dynamic playmaker in the same ilk as Rondale Moore. I would be very disappointed if I didn’t mention McKenzie this week, before he puts up solid numbers against the extremely overrated Patriots defense.

Dec 9, 2019; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (88) makes a first down reception past New York Giants free safety Antoine Bethea (41) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Tight Ends

Gold-Plated

MARK ANDREWS: @ CINCINNATI ($7,000)

Mark Freaking Andrews has been a stud this year. Whether from Lamar Jackson or former Utah Ute, Tyler Huntley, Andrews is the most reliable receiver on the team. He makes a great runback in GPPs off the Bengals stack I’ll be deploying. In cash games, you might be hard-pressed to spend up to get him. You still won’t regret it.

ROB GRONKOWSKI: @ CAROLINA ($6,200)

The whole world is looking to Antonio Brown to be the benefactor in the Bucs’ passing attack, but they might be erroneously sleeping on the greatest tight end of all time. We shall see. I like Gronk as a safe play with tons of touchdown upside, now that Mike Evans has been ruled out.

Rocking the Suburbs

DAWSON KNOX: @ NEW ENGLAND ($5,300)

Knox hasn’t really excited me in DFS too often this season, but this week is different. I brazenly predicted a 35-17 score for this game in the Bills favor, so without Beasley and Davis, Josh Allen will need to count on someone besides Stefon Diggs to expose the fraudulent Patriots on Sunday. Knox is perfectly priced for his floor, with plenty of room to smash if he finds the end zone.

DALLAS GOEDERT: VS NY GIANTS ($5,100)***

I highly doubt there will be a more coveted DFS tight end on the slate than Goedert. He got the Tuesday night blind spot price here and also faces my favorite punchline team, the Giants on Sunday. Hurts will continue to feed the South Dakota State Jackrabbit plenty of healthy target volume. Goedert is my preferred tight end to play in cash games this week.

Under the Table

COLE KMET: @ SEATTLE ($3,300)

Seattle is on the verge of imploding as a franchise, which is eerily similar to Chicago’s plight under incumbent moron, Matt Nagy. Nagy announced earlier today that Nick Foles will start at quarterback on Sunday, puzzling everyone in the NFL community. Foles hasn’t targeted an outside receiver since ‘Nam, so I’ll take a stab at the talented young tight end to get a bunch of garbage, low aDOT dump-offs. In GPP, I’ll predict chaos and roster the corpse of Jimmy Graham in a few spots.

Clash of the Beards and Bellies

Abominable Snowman

What a terrible performance! Except for Alvin Kamara and Joshua Palmer, I saw six snowflakes on my side of the board. That is by far the most I’ve ever had in a head to head clash with Scott. I literally gift wrapped his second-consecutive win last week, so now I don’t need to get him anything for Christmas. He can build all the fires with composite logs from Costco that he wants, the flames will be back in my column for Week 15.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Davis Mills – Houston Texans – $5,400

The rookie out of Stanford has played better in three of his NFL games than he ever did in the Pac-12. Last week, Mills passed for over 300 yards and put up his third 20-point performance of the fantasy season. He gets the lowly Jags this week, who took the most vile dump in the history of dumps (and Florida). I like Mills to air it out and get me some serious points-per-dollar.

RB – Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins – $5,600

You guessed it! It’s an odd-numbered week and Myles Gaskin is active against the god damn Jets. No, Gaskin isn’t magically a better player this week than he was before, but the Jets are so bad at defending running backs that if you put Rose in the end zone with a beer, Scott could rumble to 20 points on DK against them.

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400

J-Rob is finally free of Urban Meyer’s venomous, barbed tentacles. Interim coach Bevell will undoubtedly establish the physical running game with Robinson, especially without the corpse of Carlos Hyde shuffling about. Houston is just as terrible as Jacksonville, but this game is ripe for fantasy purposes.

WR – Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers – $8,900

Adams is a target vacuum. Aaron Rodgers isn’t a dummy when it comes to finding open receivers or throwing them open. Since there’s nobody on the Ravens that can dream of covering Davante one on one, they will zone out and die by a million PPR cuts. Adams is a must start player at any price.

WR – Nico Collins – Houston Texans – $3,500

It’s a little bit sad that I’m trying to prevent Scott from a three-peat with a Texans skinny stack, but here we are. The rookie Wolverine inexplicably stayed at a very nice salary this week after a 10/5/69 (nice) performance against Seattle last week. He will be among the most likely Texans to score a touchdown on Sunday, which would be a nice continuance of my spend-down receiver hot streak.

WR – Albert Wilson – Miami Dolphins – $3,400

Tua still seems very content with his historically-low aDOT/high completion percentage approach. Without Jalen Waddle, the slot role will go to Wilson, who has shown flashes of brilliant playmaking ability since returning from injury. I’ll bet that Scott has Gesicki here, but I’ll leverage that with Wilson and save a couple thousand to squeeze more studs into my build.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 28: Mark Andrews #89 of the Baltimore Ravens reacts to a play during a game against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

TE – Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – $6,400

Until Travis Kelce lit up Los Angeles in primetime, it was actually Mark Andrews who held the TE1 crown. Green Bay is pretty good on defense this season, but a hobbled Lamar Jackson might be even more dangerous as a passer. Andrews is priced perfectly for his immense upside as the most relied upon option in the Ravens attack.

FLEX – Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – $8,200

Imagine if other dynamic playmakers were given a similar set of plays as Deebo. He has been absolutely outstanding as a receiver and running back this season, scoring touchdowns on what seems like every other time he touches the football. Atlanta is what the kids call “down bad” on defense. I shudder to imagine what Shanny has dialed up for his former team involving his best playmaker.

DST – San Francisco 49ers – $3,100

The Falcons are also what the kids call “trash” on offense. Matt Ryan has yet to find time behind this abysmal offensive line to put up very many decent games. The Niners have a fellow named Nick Bosa that is unblockable for most linemen anyway. This is a pseudo RB-DST stack with Deebo that sounds pretty fun.

Don’t Call It A Comeback, Part 2

Last week I got lucky and Tyler Lockett exploded to help me win my second straight over the illustrious Cash King himself, Bo McBrayer. Bo currently leads our Head-to-Head contest, 8 – 6, so you won’t hear any bragging out of me until I am at least .500. With that being said, I do have the chance for my first three-game winning streak against….oh looks like I just jinxed it….

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $6,500

LANDOVER, MARYLAND – DECEMBER 12: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys stiff arms Will Bradley-King #56 of the Washington Football Team during the fourth quarter at FedExField on December 12, 2021, in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Dak Prescott let down DraftKings players in Week 14, scoring a paltry11.9 points. That was last week. This week he faces a Giants defense that he absolutely lit up in Week 5, passing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Dak’s floor this week is 20 points and his ceiling is 30. It’s going to feel extra special beating Bo with his own precious Dallas Cowboys quarterback.

RB – Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins– $5,600

Miami Dolphins running back Myles Gaskin runs for yards against the New York Giants during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021, in Miami Gardens. (John McCall/Sun Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Myles Gaskin has cleared the NFL COVID-19 protocols and will be active this week for the Dolphins, making him one of the best value plays at running back on the slate. The New York Jets are dead last against running backs, having given up over 2,300 total yards and 23 touchdowns on the season. On average, they give up 35 points per game to running backs. Myles Gaskin should be in every lineup you build this week.

RB – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400

James Robinson is FREE!!! Well, not completely. He’s actually $5,400 on DraftKings, but he is free from half-wit Urban Meyer. According to interim head coach Darrell Bevell, Robinson will see an increased workload this week with Carlos Hyde OUT with a concussion. It’s tremendous news for DFS players who are looking to finally cash in on Robinson. His matchup against the Texans is a juicy one as well. They currently rank 28th in the NFL against opposing running backs, giving up 26 points per game. Robinson is my second favorite running back play this week behind Gaskin.

WR – Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers – $8,900

GREEN BAY, WI – DECEMBER 12: Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) leaps into the waiting arms of Green Bay Packers center Lucas Patrick (62) during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field on December 12, 2021, in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Davante Adams has been averaging 30.7 DraftKings points per game over his last three games. The man is on fire! This week he faces Ravens secondary that hasn’t been good all season. According to PFF, Adams has the best cornerback matchup this week. Ravens cornerback Cliff Westry has a PFF grade of 58.7. The Ravens’ other starting cornerback, Anthony Averett has a PFF grade of 55.8. No matter who tries to cover Adams, he will be open all day long. He’s the best wide receiver play on the board for me this week.

WR – Brandin Cooks – Houston Texans – $5,800

Brandin Cooks is the 11th most targeted wide receiver in the NFL through 14 weeks with 109. All the other active receivers on the team have a total of 81. Cooks has been feast or famine lately, scoring 21.1 last week after only registering 8.4 points in Week 13. The last time Cooks faced off against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 he caught five of seven targets for 132 yards. I am expecting more of the same from Cooks this week. If he can find the end zone, he has the potential to score 25 points.

WR – A.J. Green – Arizona Cardinals – $4,900

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 13: AJ Green #18 of the Arizona Cardinals makes a leaping catch against the Los Angeles Rams at State Farm Stadium on December 13, 2021, in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

DeAndre Hopkins is OUT this week. Both A.J. Green and Christian Kirk stand to benefit, but Green is more likely to run Hopkins’ WR1 route tree than Kirk. At $4,900, he’s a perfect Cash play with GPP upside. His opponent, the Detroit Lions, rank 27 in the NFL, giving up 27.2 points per game. The Arizona Cardinals are -13 road favorites in this matchup and should be able to move the ball down the field at will, creating potential red zone opportunities for Green and company. I’m projecting Green for 16 DraftKings points this week.

TE – Pat Freiermuth – Pittsburgh – $4,500

Pat Freiermuth has six touchdowns in his last seven games. He’s currently tied for 2nd amongst all tight ends with Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry who both have seven touchdowns. Freiermuth’s $4,500 price tag is a value for someone who has a great chance to find the end-zone again this week.

Flex – Michael Carter – New York Jets – $4,700

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 21: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Michael Carter #32 of the New York Jets in action against the Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium on November 21, 2021, in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Dolphins defeated the Jets 24-17. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Michael Carter currently has an IR designation next to his name in DraftKings, but he has been practicing all week and according to Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh, he will have a “significant role” in the offense this week. In the four games before his injury, Carter racked up 31 targets, 7.7 per game, and was averaging 19.4 points per game. I’m just looking for 15 points out of him to beat Bo.

DST – Dallas Cowboys – $3,600

Paying up for defense in Cash makes more sense than in GPP tournaments. This week I had to splurge. The New York Giants will be without Daniel Jones again this week. Their 17.8 points per game rank 27th in the NFL. If the Cowboys don’t score a defensive touchdown I would be disappointed.

Nimble GPP:Plays to Get You Paid

High Priced – Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills – $8,100

TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 12: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills throws a pass during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Last week I told you to pay up for Josh Allen and he scored 42 points and broke the main slate, outscoring all other quarterbacks by nine points. This week Allen is only being rostered in a projected 10% of DraftKings lineups. His price tag is expensive, good. According to RunTheSims.com, Allen has the highest ceiling for Week 15 quarterbacks, at 37.38 points. The Carolina Panthers might look good on paper, but in reality, they won’t be able to stop Allen or Stefon Diggs. Diggs will be my primarily stacking option, but I will also be double stacking him with Dawson Knox and sprinkling in some Gabriel Davis. Allen is in play for all GPP tournament formats, but I love him for the higher-stakes contests.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – $6,500

Dak Prescott let a lot of DraftKings DFS players down last week after scoring only 11.9 points and breaking the slate, in a bad way. This week Dak and the Cowboys face off against NFC East doormats, the New York Giants. Incredibly Dak’s only picking up 8% rostership as off Friday night (when I am writing this). I’m expecting that number to be close to 12% come kickoff, but he’s still a great value at only $6,500. The last time Dak played the Giants he threw for three touchdowns, 303 passing yards, and scored 25.7 DraftKings points. I’ll be primarily skinny stacking Dak with CeeDee Lamb this week in mid-sized GPP contests.

Value – Quarterback

Tua Tagovialoa, Miami Dolphins – $5,700

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 05: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins takes the field prior to the game against the New York Giants at Hard Rock Stadium on December 05, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

The New York Jets are the worst team in the NFL. They give up over 30 points per game to opposing offenses and haven’t been able to stop anyone all season. Tua Tagovialoa registered a quarterback rating of 108 the last time he faced the Jets in 2021, scoring 18 DraftKings points in the process. This week he will be without his number one wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who was placed on the NFL’s COVID-19 list earlier this week. But DeVante Parker is back and Mike Gesicki is also (Teddy KBG voice) hanging around. We’ve seen the likes of Mack Hollins and Isaiah Ford step up and make big plays in the passing game the last few weeks and Myles Gaskin is off the NFL COVID-19 list. I’m not worried about Waddle’s absence and will be above the field based on Tua’s 11% projected rostership.

High Priced – Running Back

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals – $7,200

Joe Mixon has scored the 5th most DraftKings points by a running back this season and is averaging 18.8 points per game. For comparison, Najee Harris is the most expensive running back on the Week 15 DraftKings main slate, priced at $7,800, and is only averaging 0.4 points more per game than Mixon. Before Mixon’s last two performances of 10.4 and 8.8 points, he had been averaging 28.9 points per game in his previous four starts. To top it all off, Mixon is currently only projected for 5% rostership. Fingers crossed people have short memories and fade him in a tougher matchup against the Denver Broncos.

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Mid-Range – Running Back

Cordarrelle Patteron, Atlanta Falcons – $6,900

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – DECEMBER 12: Cordarrelle Patterson #84 of the Atlanta Falcons is tackled by Bravvion Roy #93 of the Carolina Panthers on a run during the second quarter of the game at Bank of America Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Cordarrelle Patterson has scored 10 touchdowns this season. It is seven more than the next closest player on the Falcons. The whole team only has 5 more touchdowns than Patterson, which is absurd. The San Francisco 49ers are going to crush the Falcons and Matty Ice, but not before Patterson gets his this week and scores between 18-20 DraftKings points. At this point in the season, it is what he does. I’m rolling Patterson out as a run-back option for my George Kittle stacks. Giddy-up.

Value – Running Back

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – DECEMBER 12: James Robinson #25 of the Jacksonville Jaguars on the sidelines during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Jaguars 20-0. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

James Robinson is FREE!! Well, not really. He’s priced at $5,400 this week, but he is free from Urban Meyer, that franchise-ruining reprobate who hand single-handedly ruined 2020’s best fantasy football story when he thought career plodder Carlos Hyde was the answer. The word on the street is that Robinson should see his 2020 workload return this week against the Houston Texans, who rank 28th against running backs, giving up over 2,000 rushing/receiving yards and 17 total touchdowns. James Robinson has a really good chance of punching in a score this week. I’m playing him everywhere.

High Priced – Wide Receiver

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – $8,900

Davante Adams is the best wide receiver play on the DraftKings Week 15 main slate. I’m gutted that the LA Rams game got moved to Tuesday, meaning Cooper Kupp is no longer soaking up his rostership, leaving Adams exposed. Currently, he is projected for 15% rostership, the fifth-highest this week. My greatest fear has come true and apparently, people are onto him. Go figure. He’s only been averaging 11 targets per game the last five weeks, which might explain it. Despite his popularity, I’m rolling with Adams naked and in skinny stacks with Aaron Rodgers.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – $5,800

Value – Wide Receiver

Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills – $3,700

TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 12: Gabriel Davis #13 of the Buffalo Bills looks on during the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

After being replaced in the offseason by Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis has quietly scored over 11 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He also has two touchdowns in the last two games, along with 12 targets. This week Sanders is OUT meaning that Davis could see an increased role in the offense. RunTheSims.com projects Davis for just under a 20 point ceiling, exactly the type of cheap lotto ticket we are looking for at $3,700.

High Priced – Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – $7,500

CINCINNATI, OH – DECEMBER 12: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers makes a catch during the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The 49ers defeated the Bengals 26-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

George Kittle is a tight end God! In the last two weeks, he has scored 79.8 points and is averaging 39.85 points per game. His 22 receptions, 331 yards receiving yards, and three touchdowns are the most by any player, period. This week Kittle and the San Francisco 49ers host his next victim, the Atlanta Falcons. Some of the sharpest minds in DFS said not to chase Kittle’s point last week. How did that turn out? I told you to play him, hope you are listening this week.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins – $5,000

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – NOVEMBER 21: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Mack Hollins #86 of the Miami Dolphins celebrates his touchdown against the New York Jets with teammate Mike Gesicki #88 at MetLife Stadium on November 21, 2021 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Dolphins defeated the Jets 24-17. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

The Miami Dolphins roll into New York this weekend at less than full strength due to COVID-19. Jaylen Waddle and his team-high 115 targets are OUT. I expect Myles Gaskin to soak up a few of those targets, but Mike Gesicki should be the primary beneficiary in his absence. Gesicki is second on the team with 89 targets on the season. His seven targets per game over the last 9 weeks means that he should see plenty of volume in this matchup. The Jets give up 15 points per game to the tight end position per week, including 828 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. Gesicki is going to feast this week.

Value – Tight End

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers – $4,500

Pat Freiermuth has six touchdowns in his last seven games. He’s currently tied for 2nd amongst all tight ends with Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry who both have seven touchdowns. Freiermuth’s 5% projected rostership is music to my ears. I will be over the field this week for sure.

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