Nimble w/Numbers

Down a Peg

Human beings often blur the line between pride and ego. I would love for someone to proclaim that I am the greatest football writer in existence, but it’s off-putting for those words to come from me. Someone on social media would likely have a clever way of exclaiming the opposite. Humble pie is lukewarm and honest, restraining one’s self of the indulgence of a buttery crust and sugary lattice.

I am incredibly proud of the person I have fought a daily internal battle to become. When others enjoy my work, it sends me into a mindless elation that can’t be retrieved from the stratosphere.

Perfection is unattainable. Greatness is bestowed by others. Applaud yourself privately. There is always someone else working harder and doing the same thing better. Now I’m just listing things my dad would repeat on our trips out of town into the hills every other weekend. His favorite was, “practice, practice, practice.” “Practice” meant golf, baseball, riflery, archery, singing, and cooking.

He wasn’t present for a lot of it after the divorce, but every other weekend was practice on the ranch. He was pushing me to get better at my interests. When the distance and resentment between us grew, I pushed myself with his voice echoing in my subconscious. This epiphany just now poured out into a paragraph. He was there. Here’s one more from Joe the milkman. “You’re going to lose…a lot…at everything. Learn from it.”

My dad didn’t prepare me for losing to my nimble friend, Scott last week. My first head-to-head loss since the Trump administration still has me reeling. What if I’m not the cash game master anymore? Instead of freefalling into a depression, I took a step back and extracted a lesson from the dismay. My other cash games were victorious, so I’m sure the fear I’ve been instilling within Scott is still alive and well (but weakened like Voldemort). We still have a bankroll to build. Let’s hop to it, starting a peg down.

Week 3 DFS Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

KYLER MURRAY: @ JACKSONVILLE ($8,300)

There just simply isn’t a reason to fade this offense, especially Murray. He is off to a similarly torrid start as he was in 2020. Don’t let the salary daunt you, this is still a bargain for a guy cracking 30 DK points every week with ease.

JOSH ALLEN: VS WASHINGTON ($7,000)***

Allen is also a wonderful tournament play this week as an undervalued quarterback with limitless upside. Washington hasn’t been a world-beating defense thus far.

JUSTIN HERBERT: @ KANSAS CITY ($6,500)

Don’t let the box score tell you that Herbert was bad against Dallas. He was razor sharp again, only to have two touchdown passes taken off the board from penalties. I would be absolutely shocked if this game doesn’t shoot out and neither team has a reliable running game. Herbert is an easy cash play.

MATTHEW STAFFORD: VS TAMPA BAY ($6,400)

Yes, the Bucs have a good defense…up front. They are nearly impossible to run on, but have been gouged through the air. The slot position has exploited a weak Tampa secondary so far. This is notable because Sean McVay’s offense operates with all of their wide receivers lining up inside the numbers most of the time. Darrell Henderson is banged up, so we might see the Rams take the same approach as the Cowboys and just air it out 50 times.

DANIEL JONES: VS ATLANTA ($5,800)

Who else knew that Danny Dimes knew the Konami Code? After 95 rushing yards against Washington, DFS players simply can’t ignore the embattled signal caller against an atrocious Falcons defense.

JUSTIN FIELDS: @ CLEVELAND ($5,200)

Matt Nagy probably still wants to roll Andy Dalton out there like the Black Knight from Monty Python, but it’s finally Justin Fields SZN. The bargain salary will likely make Fields too chalky for GPP. In cash, he’s an incredible value with extreme rushing upside. Look out for his passing ability to also shine in his debut. This will commence a massive fantasy season for the rookie Buckeye.

Running Backs

DERRICK HENRY: VS INDIANAPOLIS ($8,600)

There aren’t many players in the NFL that get you fired up about football more than Derrick Henry. Normally, I’d give him a fade after more than 40 touches and facing a tough Indy front. What makes this week different is my correct prediction that King Henry is now officially a part of the Titans passing game. Spend up and cash out.

AUSTIN EKELER: @ KANSAS CITY ($7,200)

Shootouts favor running backs with receiving upside. Ekeler is one of the best and still stays relatively affordable on DK, where he is a PPR cheat code. I’m expecting close to 20 touches here and if he can find the end zone again, we’re cooking with peanut oil.

JONATHAN TAYLOR: @ TENNESSEE ($6,700)***

This salary is a travesty. The Titans defense is horrible at all three levels and JT is averaging nearly 20 touches per game so far. There is no reason at all to ignore such a transcendent player in a smash spot at a crazy value.

SAQUON BARKLEY: VS ATLANTA ($6,500)

If you’ve ever taken an IQ test, there are tons of questions that judge one’s ability to detect and follow patterns. Barkley’s pattern is ascending. I hold the minority opinion that Saquon looked incredibly sharp last week. He now will have 10 days rest to ramp up to a Falcons team that lacks any defensive talent to speak of.

DEANDRE SWIFT: VS BALTIMORE ($5,800)

Pass-catching running backs. Roster them in cash. Receptions are ultra-valuable in PPR, especially when the objective is to outscore half of your opponents. Swift might be called upon even more in garbage time with Detroit’s garbage defense against Lamar Jackson et al. Swift is also due for a gargantuan slate-breaking game. Let’s see if it occurs on Sunday.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS: VS NY JETS ($4,900)

Stubbornness is a trait that I withhold for players I truly believe in. Williams is another player trending toward a breakout game. Last week, we saw another 50/50 split between him and Melvin Gordon. The young Tar Heel looked amazing again in contrast with the washed up Gordon. Follow the pattern and increasing volume. The suspense is killing me, but I’ll keep plugging Javonte into this article.

CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE: VS LA CHARGERS ($4,800)

Everyone hates CEH now. He certainly didn’t look spectacular against Baltimore, but it is worrisome that Andy Reid doesn’t trust him to be a lead back. His costly fumble really stuck in my craw, but I won’t fade a back with good hands in a shootout game, especially when his salary will quickly ascend from here.

NYHEIM HINES: @ TENNESSEE ($4,600)

I already mentioned how abysmal the Titans defense is. JT is certainly the bellcow, but Hines has carved a nice role in the playbook and his volume and upside are game flow-dependent. This is another opportunity, with an ailing Carson Wentz, for Indy to rely on YAC to get the job done.

Wide Receivers

STEFON DIGGS: VS WASHINGTON ($7,600)***

If you’re going to deploy Josh Allen, you certainly must pair him with Diggs. Allen’s funnel to Diggs is like a vacuum; a black hole of targets. Washington has been lit up through the air by lesser opponents already. The league will be on notice about the Bills again after this game.

COOPER KUPP: VS TAMPA BAY ($6,800)

Lock him in again. The connection between Kupp and Matthew Stafford is truly special already. The WR1 in fantasy is still under $7k, making for Benadryl-level chalk in GPP, but proceed with reckless abandon in cash. Kupp is just getting started.

KEENAN ALLEN: @ KANSAS CITY ($6,600)

Both Chargers stud receivers are priced well below the volume they garner every week. The matchup is tough against good Chiefs corners. That should not scare you off of Allen’s prowess from the slot, where Herbert seems to have a nice groove going already. Keenan is sure to see plenty of looks this week.

MIKE WILLIAMS: @ KANSAS CITY ($6,400)

My preseason skepticism at Williams’ ability to take over as the Chargers’ X receiver has fully transformed into an infatuation with the marriage between his new volume and old upside. It’s the power couple of the year and at $6,400, I’m gobbling it up like free pizza.

ALLEN ROBINSON: @ CLEVELAND ($6,200)

The problem with ARob in 2021 was Andy Dalton. No bones about it. Darnell Mooney was the one scooping up more targets. Dalton is a great human being, but nowhere near the football player that Justin Fields is. I look for a breakout from Robinson this week as the rookie’s go-to guy. There will be folks who also forgot how amazing ARob is, making him a nice GPP play too.

CHRIS GODWIN: @ LA RAMS ($6,100)

“God ChrisWIN” is another guy I’ll be rostering in all DFS formats. The Rams will likely have Jalen Ramsey on Mike Evans and we’re still awaiting whether Antonio Brown will be activated from the COVID-19 list ahead of the game. In any case, Godwin operates from the slot and is poised to explode against this defense. I’m baffled that his salary is so low.

STERLING SHEPARD: VS ATLANTA ($5,900)

I’m tempering my Shepard stance today, after my initial excitement to plug him into cash lineups versus Atlanta. Evan Engram is slated to return, which gives Daniel Jones another short-range weapon. This potential dip in targets is a little worrisome, but Engram is such a bad player that we might see him fade away and make way for the Shep Show. He’s clearly the best receiver on this team.

MARVIN JONES JR*: @ ARIZONA ($4,900)

My secret ingredient this week isn’t much of a secret to others as much as he is a guy I hardly ever feel like putting into play. This is the spot. Sub-$5k against a pair of cornerbacks that are well below average is a really shiny beacon. Defense will be optional in this game and neither squad figures to establish the run in fear of falling behind. Jones will fold in nicely as a WR3 or Flex in a lot of cash builds.

TYLER BOYD: @ PITTSBURGH ($4,700)

I just talked about how vanilla Boyd is as a cash play last week. He, Tee Higgins, and Jamarr Chase were all viable in cash last week. Now, with Higgins trending toward not playing, I’ll lean into Boyd as a high-volume target hog that faces a secondary playing much worse than expected so far.

KJ OSBORN: VS SEATTLE ($3,500)

Osborn has been a pleasant surprise this season. I have dubbed him this year’s Travis Fulgham. He has garnered 14 targets and plenty of production so far in Irv Smith’s absence as the third receiving option behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Seahawks secondary has been pretty good so far, so I’ll fade the studs and go after the young slot guy until he turns into a pumpkin.

TIGHT ENDS

TRAVIS KELCE: VS LA CHARGERS ($8,200)

No-brainer. Moving on. Actually, this is a very tough matchup against Derwin James and the Chargers. You just don’t fade the best in the game…ever. He will never not be a value at the position.

DARREN WALLER: VS MIAMI ($7,600)

You just don’t fade the best in the game…ever. Miami has been tough on defense, but will be without Tua Tagovailoa for this one. Vegas and Derek Carr are scorching hot. Waller will continue to be the focal point of the playbook and always brings upside with his immense volume.

TJ HOCKENSON: VS BALTIMORE ($5,200)***

Volume is king in cash games. So far, Hock has been targeted 20 times in two games. The salary is nice and disrespectful, especially considering Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL. Hock is a lock, real talk.

KYLE PITTS: @ NY GIANTS ($4,900)

Another absolute lock is the young Gator, Pitts. The pattern is in his favor, with his usage on the rise. The Giants defense has been very disappointing to date. James Bradberry will likely shadow Calvin Ridley, so Matt Ryan will hopefully see the 6’6″ unicorn streaking down the field wide open all game.

NOAH FANT: VS NY JETS ($4,800)

Athletes in space are so much fun. Not outer space, but it does appear that Fant may be from another planet. The Jets’ roster contains exactly zero defensive backs who are good in coverage, so all of the Broncos receivers should eat. I’ll lock in on the one who is priced reasonably.

EVAN ENGRAM: VS ATLANTA ($3,600)

As much as I think Engram is a trash player with stone hands (I call him Old Stone Hands), he is a tight end in a Jason Garrett offense. At a bargain salary, I’ll be fair and assume he won’t drop all of his targets. I’d be happy to get 10 DK points out of him if I can only fit a sub-$4k salary in at tight end.

Winded From Victory Laps

“Don’t get too cute; it’s unbecoming of you” is what I would have offered to poor Nimble as advice last week before lock…if I wasn’t in bloodthirsty competition mode. In retrospect, he can set his lineups whichever way he chooses. He’s a grown man. I don’t share the same chilling regret he feels after yet another paddling from his so-called friend, so I can’t relate to the reasoning behind him shaving off his manhood in a Britney-esque cry for help.

In my camp, we’re on to Cincinnati. I won’t rest on my laurels, I’ll put them in a nice tomato bisque (laurels are Bay Leaves). Week 2 offers a unique mixture of games with sneaky upside. Scott was fortunate he didn’t get my other head-to-head lineup (that would have been really embarrassing). I ravaged him with rookies in Week 1, so naturally, I have zero rookies in the lineup come Sunday. Boy, I hope when I drop 200 on him this week it doesn’t affect our friendship.

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Bo’s Lineup

QB – Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks – $7,500

Mr. Unlimited is as cringe-worthy as it gets, but his first performance with Shane Waldron calling the plays was far from limited. I get it now. Russ has the ability to drop bombs on anyone. Why wouldn’t he do it to such a horrible Titans defense?

RB – Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns – $7,800

Chubb is arguably the league’s most complete running back. He put on a show in Week 1 against the reigning AFC champion Chiefs. Wouldn’t it be fun to see him go for 200 yards against Houston? I think it would be.

RB – David Montgomery – Chicago Bears –$6,100

Monty is only $6,100 this week. The utter disrespect is palpable here, and I’ll be taking it all the way to the bank (or under the mattress). I think DK missed the part where the Bears are facing the Bengals this week.

WR – Keenan Allen – LA Chargers – $7,000

One of the league’s best route runners will have more time to get open than my wife spends deciding what to order for dinner. No Tank Lawrence or Randy Gregory and a youthful secondary means Dallas will have no defensive answers for this Chargers offense. Keenan will smash.

WR – KJ Hamler – Denver Broncos – $3,800

Everyone and their Aunt May is picking up Tim Patrick this week, but I’ll be the one hoping Teddy B unleashes some bombs to the Nittany Lion, Hamler, and his 4.39 speed.

WR – Hunter Renfrow – LV Raiders – $3,600

What surprised me on Monday night was how often Derek Carr looked for Renfrow as a hot read when he was under duress. This is a rare floor play for me, but the price is low enough for a nice complementary contribution from the Clemson grad.

TE – Noah Fant – Denver Broncos – $4,200

Hey everyone, the Broncos play the Jaguars this week! That means you should fully attack them with everyone possible. I’m still wiping away my tears from the Jeudy injury, but I’ll cope with ice cream and Fant putting a nail in Urban Meyer’s coffin.

Flex – DK Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks – $7,600

You thought I was going this light at wide receiver, when, in reality, I like to drop a nuke in the flex spot to rattle Scott’s cage. Last week, it was Dalvin Cook. This week, I’m completing the Seahawks stack in hopes that he goes ape shit crazy on this Titans defense.

DST – Philadelphia Eagles – $2,400

It’s just a hunch, but I don’t think the 49ers’ offense will look as lethal as they did in Detroit last Sunday. This Eagles front gets after it, and Jimmy Garoppolo has zero poise if his first read is covered. I’m spending down a bit, hoping for sacks and maybe a couple turnovers.

Insufferabo

NFL Week 1 was a DFS disappointment. I lost to Bo by 6.1 points in a low-scoring inaugural “Clash of the Beards and Bellies” that saw neither of us score more than 122 points. Bo is already turning “insufferabo” (shout out Scott Rinear, AKA @MunderDifflinFF on Twitter) acting like this is the first time he’s ever won before. He’s been caught recording celebration videos on multiple platforms including the Sports Me App, making his underlings at work call him “Kylo Bo”, and wearing a homemade “I’m a Winner” cape around the neighborhood. If I start the season 0-2, I’m sure he’ll do something insane like carve “Legend” in his chest. No one wants to see that. So I decided that I will beat Bo this week, just to spare us all the pain of watching his awkward celebrations. Here’s the lineup that’s gonna take him out back to the woodshed and beat the pants off of him in Week 2.

QB – Justin Herbert – LA Chargers – $6,700

Justin Herbert looked like a chiseled veteran last week, rolling into Washington and dominating the Football team. This week he faces a much less vaunted Dallas Cowboys defense that just lost Demarcus Lawrence for a few months. Herbert’s favorite target in Week 1 was Keenan Allen, who caught nine of 13 passes for 100 yards. Dallas gave up 56.3 fantasy points last week to wide receivers. Allen is gonna feast! He’s a lock for Cash and has GPP upside as well.

RB – Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns – $7,800

Nick Chubb might be the best Cash RB play on the whole DraftKings Main Slate this week. PFF gives the Browns a 138% run blocking advantage over the Houston Texans’ porous rush defense. I can still remember David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor rushing all over the Texans to end the 2020 season.

I expect Chubb to rush for over 150 yards and at least one score, with the potential for another. Currently, RuntheSims.com ranks Chubb as a top-five running back with a ceiling above 30 fantasy points. If you are looking for a high-priced running with huge upside and a strong floor, Chubb is your man.

RB – Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals – $4,900

The Arizona Cardinals offense looked explosive in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans. Chase Edmonds racked up over 100 rushing and receiving yards on 16 total touches for 14.6 fantasy points. This week he faces the Minnesota Vikings who are primed to be bludgeoned by Kyle Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. Edmonds has PPR upside and a solid floor at $4,900.

WR – Keenan Allen – LA Chargers– $7,000

Keenan Allen is a stud! He was caught nine passes for 100 yards and was the second-best player to Justin Herbert, on Sunday. This week he faces the Dallas Cowboys defense who gave up over 50 points to wide receivers last week. He’s primed to break the slate in GPP and deliver for Cash Games as well.

WR – Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,600

According to PFF, Chris Godwin has a top 5 cornerback matchup with week and RuntheSims.com projects Godwin with the highest ceiling for Buc’s wide receivers. Brady targeted Godwin 14 times last Thursday night against the Cowboys. Godwin scored 27.5 points and projects to score 20 plus again this week against a Falcons team that gave up two touchdowns to Eagle’s wide receivers in Week 1. Look for Godwin to continue to lead the Buccaneers in targets and be a GPP machine this week.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $6,000

Matthew Stafford looked amazing last week, passing for over 320 yards with three touchdowns. He peppered Cooper Kupp with 10 targets that Kupp turned into seven receptions for 108 yards and a score. The Colts’ defense wasn’t itself last week, getting carved up for four touchdowns by Russell Wilson. I expect that trend to continue this week with Kupp and the Rams passing attack.

TE – Noah Fant – Denver Broncos – $4,200

Last week Noah Fant ranked fourth in tight end targets with eight. This week he faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that couldn’t stop the Houston Tankings, I mean Texans. Fant will see plenty of volume, Teddy Bridgewater targeted tight ends on 36% of dropbacks last week. Fant has touchdown upside as well and is a smash in cash this week.

Flex – Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos – $4,400

Last week Javonte Williams carried the ball 14 times and caught his lone target for a total of 15 touches. Melvin Gordon had 11 carries and three receptions for 14 total touches. Gordon is priced up to $5,900. Both are good plays against a Jacksonville defense that looked more college than Pro thanks to Urban Meyer. I love Williams’ cheap touchdown upside this week, and his price is perfect.

DST – Philadephia Eagles – $2,400

The Eagles can get after the quarterback, sacking Matt Ryan three times last week, almost certainly leaving him for dead at one point. According to PFF, they have a positive 23% matchup advantage. If the 49ers are going to ve successful, it should be on the ground, where they have a 78% advantage per PFF. The Eagles should be able to keep this game close and hopefully, that means Jimmy G. is dropping back to pass the ball, which increases the chances he turns the ball over.

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Key Ingredients

I’m a cook, not a chef. I did not attend culinary school, nor do I own or operate a professional kitchen. It’s merely semantics, at this point. Just as one is not a doctor without an M.D. or Ph.D, my path to prominence in the food landscape was not charted on a traditional map.

Going back to the moment I could see over the countertop of my grandpa’s kitchen island, I have been cooking. Someone who cooks also tastes everything. Thusly, I was introduced to “adult” things like coffee, wine, and whiskey at a younger age than most. My family put things in front of me every day. I remember pressure cooking a whole chicken when I was nine years old. Grandpa was floored at my level of interest in the techniques and science behind what we were putting together to feed the family.

Fantasy football, including DFS, shares a similar vein with cooking. Maybe that’s the allure. If technique is the method used in experimentation and application of science, it can also be assumed that there is room for nuance (art).

A successful DFS Cash build is that beautiful dance between art and science. Not only are the key ingredients there, but each one of them plays their own role in the symphonic harmony. How much salary you spend on each spot is the difference between a dollop, dash, or pinch. You might sneak a little something special in the pot and gaze upon your patrons with anticipation, hoping that they recognize it.

This week’s Hot Cash From the King of Spice pays homage to everyone in my family who molded me into what I am and will become. Going forward, my favorite cash players of the week will be marked with (***) to signify them as Key Ingredients, while one player each week will be italicized to signify them as a Secret Ingredient to a winning cash build. Bon appetite!

Week 2 DFS Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

Quarterbacks

KYLER MURRAY: vs MINNESOTA ($8,200)

There isn’t a more electric player in the game today than K1, or as Christian Kirk has dubbed him, “Baby Yoda.” The Vikings looked every bit as mortal on defense as I expected last week against the Bengals. With the other high-priced quarterbacks in tougher matchups this week, I’ll take the red hot Murray and ride this amazing wave of points.

RUSSELL WILSON: vs TENNESSEE ($7,500)

Russ didn’t need to cook too much against Indy, but he surely did anyway against what was supposed to be a tough defense. Now facing one of Week 1’s worst defensive units, I just can’t get around fading him in any type of contest.

JUSTIN HERBERT: vs DALLAS ($6,700) ***

Talk about contrast! Herbert was pretty damn sharp last week in Washington. Now, he goes from navigating the pocket against a fearsome and hellacious pass rush to one that just lost its heartbeat. Dallas netted zero sacks last week and were picked apart like a rotisserie chicken at a potluck, even with DeMarcus Lawrence leading the charge. The Chargers figure to score at will this week, with Herbert as the benefactor.

JALEN HURTS: vs SAN FRANCISCO ($6,500)

You would think after his stellar performance against Atlanta on Sunday, that Hurts’ salary would have skyrocketed farther. Since it didn’t, and he goes against a 49ers defense that was gutted by Jared Goff down the stretch last week, I can’t help but play him in cash.

JOE BURROW: @ CHICAGO ($5,800)

The Bengals were surprisingly efficient against Minnesota, running the ball with great efficiency and limiting Burrow to 27 passing attempts. The Bears pass defense was eviscerated by Matthew Stafford last week, but still poses a challenge to the Bengals’ running game. Look for Burrow to easily crack 30 passing attempts and surpass 20 fantasy points in the process.

Running Backs

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY: vs NEW ORLEANS ($9,900)

The best player in fantasy football faces an incredible challenge in Week 1. The Saints are fresh off their dismantling of the Packers and kept Aaron Jones from producing anything meaningful for fantasy. Am I afraid the same will happen to CMC on Sunday? Absolutely not. The sheer volume of quality touches he receives every game is enough to be secure in plugging him into a cash lineup no matter what.

NICK CHUBB: vs HOUSTON ($7,800)***

This is an absolute dream matchup. Chubb diced up the Chiefs last week and now faces a Houston defense that wasn’t challenged at all in the running game last week. I’ll be playing Chubb in any format this week and he’s a key ingredient in a winning cash build.

AUSTIN EKELER: vs DALLAS ($7,300)

Ekeler did not receive a single passing target last week, eerily similar to Week 1 of last season. Washington was keying on the flats and put a spy on Ekeler the whole game. Even then, he was open. I fully expect Herbert to find his outlet valve much more this week against a poor Cowboys defense. Ekeler also figures to have success on the ground, with the news that Pro Bowl defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence is out with a broken foot.

NAJEE HARRIS: vs LAS VEGAS ($6,300)

Are you surprised to see this name on the list? You shouldn’t be. The rookie received every single running back touch last week against Buffalo. The Raiders pose much less beef up front than the Bills, who crowded the line of scrimmage and dared Big Ben to beat them over the top. Harris also looked better than his production, which gives me confidence that he will outperform his salary this week.

DAVID MONTGOMERY: vs CINCINNATI ($6,100)***

There were many puzzling salaries at the running back position for this week on DraftKings. Namely, Monty and Zeke. Since Monty has a juicier matchup and isn’t in as much of a timeshare, I’ll ride with the guy who gashed the Rams fearsome front and won me some money on the Showdown Slate in Week 1.

CHASE EDMONDS: vs MINNESOTA ($4,900)

High-quality touches give the edge to Edmonds over Conner for me on DK this week. Though you can probably start either one against the Vikings, Edmonds is the preferred option in PPR. Their salaries are both pretty nice this week.

NYHEIM HINES: vs LA RAMS ($4,700)

I have been stumping for Hines’ value all offseason. The fanfare around his RB15 finish in 2020 was long gone, back to him available as RB53 in drafts this summer. Of course, the entire Indy offense runs through its two running backs. This was reinstated in Week 1. Jonathan Taylor garnered 23 touches and Hines had 15, putting up 14.2 PPR points (right on his 2020 average). The Rams were not as stellar against the Bears running game as many hoped last week. Hines should pile up high-quality touches at a bargain again.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS*: @ JACKSONVILLE ($4,400)

I bet you didn’t predict who my secret ingredient player would be. The rookie out of North Carolina was simply okay last week against the Giants. He did out-touch breakout performer Melvin Gordon, whose 70-yard touchdown made him relevant. I predict more Javonte this week against a woeful Jags defense that (triple-checks notes) allowed three Texans running backs to be fantasy-relevant in Week 1. This one is ripe for the picking. My rookie RB2 is going to shine on Sunday.

Wide Receivers

DEANDRE HOPKINS: vs MINNESOTA ($8,000)

My pair of Cardinals was a big hit in cash games last week. The Vikings won’t offer much resistance on defense, especially when they struggled against the Bengals last week. I’m rolling a lot of my same plays back into this week, including the immense volume afforded to Nuk in the Air Raid.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON: @ ARIZONA ($7,400)

No, there’s not much reason to play both Vikings receivers in the same roster build, but I do see them as equally good for cash games. Look at it this way, in a larger field 50/50 or Head-to-Head, I might lean Jefferson with a tad more upside.

ADAM THIELEN: @ ARIZONA ($7,100)

Thielen is coming off a monstrous 30-point outing against the Bengals. Arizona generated a great deal of pressure on the Titans, but the Vikings line is arguably a better unit. If Minnesota can expose the Cardinals’ lack of talent at cornerback, Jefferson and Thielen will both feast again this week.

KEENAN ALLEN: vs DALLAS ($7,100)***

Keenan Allen is going to rip this defense apart. The Dallas pass rush is non-existent, especially with Tank Lawrence out of action. Herbert’s surgical precision and talent at the skill positions make this a great game to stack, even in a cash game. Allen and Chris Godwin are similar players, lest we forget last Thursday night.

CHRIS GODWIN: vs ATLANTA ($6,600)

The world champs have another cupcake defense to toy with to start their 2021 title defense. Devonta Smith operated in the slot most of Week 1 and made quick work of the Falcons secondary in his first professional outing. Godwin is a more polished and savvy version of the Slim Reaper and will be receiving his passes from the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Any questions?

DIONTAE JOHNSON: vs LAS VEGAS ($6,400)

I love that Diontae didn’t have the best game against Buffalo. His salary stayed well below what it will be following this game. The Raiders benefitted from a Ravens offense in disarray, whose X receiver was Sammy Freakin’ Watkins. Johnson also won’t have Tre White covering him. With 9-10 targets incoming, this is an ultra-strong play.

MIKE WILLIAMS: vs DALLAS ($6,100)

Did we mention that the Cowboys defense is falling apart? Although I will be deploying Williams in more GPP contests, it can’t be ignored that he excelled as the X receiver last week with 12 targets and 22.2 DK points. This gives me more confidence in his steady volume to combine with his flair for the spectacular, slate-breaking plays down the field.

COOPER KUPP: @ INDIANAPOLIS ($6,000)

This has to be a mistake, right? We just witnessed the Colts get roasted down the field by a great deep ball passer in Russell Wilson. Now, you’re telling me Matthew Stafford is rolling into Lucas Oil Stadium after dropping bombs on the Bears. I’m licking my chops here in all formats. Kupp is an easy cash value at this ridiculous salary.

TEE HIGGINS: @ CHICAGO ($5,400)

I just love playing Tee Higgins in cash games. He’s not Tyler Boyd, who many tab as the “safe floor” guy that the traditional cash player pines for. He’s my type of cash player. Only needing 16 DK points to smash value against an overmatched Bears secondary is a great feeling to have.

LAVISKA SHENAULT JR: vs DENVER ($4,900)

Let me get this straight. Shenault puts up 12.9 DK points on nine targets without scoring a touchdown and his salary went down $100? I’m looking around to make sure I’m not on a hidden camera prank show. Viska offers all the volume in this putrid and idiotic Urban Meyer scheme. He’s still their best bet to reach the end zone, too.

Tight Ends

DARREN WALLER: @ PITTSBURGH ($7,600)

Travis Kelce is off the main slate. This is not a drill. For all the amazing accolades, Kelce and Waller are virtually indistinguishable on the stat sheet. If Kelce is ever priced below $8k, you hammer it. If Waller is ever priced below $8k,…

GEORGE KITTLE: @ PHILADELPHIA ($6,400)

There was nothing obvious to suggest that the Eagles’ dismantling of the Falcons in Week 1 was a fluke. The Falcons have one of the worst rosters in the NFL. The scheme and game plan deployed by Arthur Smith was terrible. The play calls were terrible. The Falcons ignored every advantage they had against the Philly defense. For how annoying Kyle Shanahan is, he’s not taking Kittle out of the game plan (or is he?). I’ll be overweight on Kittle in all DFS formats where I can fit him in.

KYLE PITTS: @ TAMPA BAY ($5,200)

This is more in line with the salary Pitts should have had last week. This is a fair price for a player with GPP upside against a tough defense. The weakness of Tampa is in the slot, where Pitts was aligned on the vast majority of his snaps. He was a letdown in Week 1, production-wise. He is still pacing for 136 targets, so the production will follow. That is, if Matt Ryan can remember how to play quarterback.

ROB GRONKOWSKI: vs ATLANTA ($4,700)

The GPP landscape might be ripe for rostering two tight ends this week. Much like Week 2 of 2020, the matchups and pricing indicate this as optimal for tournament play. For cash, I look for chemistry and a steady role in the offensive system. That was glaring for Gronk and the Bucs in the kickoff game versus Dallas. The Falcons are similar, in that they lack quality personnel to defend the middle of the field. Play him at this salary with peak confidence.

NOAH FANT: @ JACKSONVILLE ($4,200)***

Jerry Jeudy’s injury hit me like a ton of bricks. I have him on over half of my fantasy teams. If there is a silver lining to this, it’s that Fant is penciled in as the direct recipient of the short and intermediate passing attention from historically-nearsighted Teddy Bridgewater. This is an ideal matchup with plenty of GPP upside, as well. Holy smokes! Am I becoming a Broncos fan?

JARED COOK: vs DALLAS ($3,900)

Yes, it hurts to pick on my Cowboys so much this week. I can’t help it. They are playing shorthanded on defense for the foreseeable future and visit the LA Chargers. The same Chargers that I predicted to win the Super Bowl this season. Cook was very clearly Justin Herbert’s favorite tight end target against Washington and has a history of sticking a dagger through Dallas’ heart.

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