By Scott Simpson
Welcome to NFL Week 3! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
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Priced Up – Quarterback
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – $7,800
Lamar Jackson has the highest projected Week 3 ceiling out of any quarterback according to RuntheSims.com. The Ravens quarterback is averaging over 28 DraftKings points per game, rushing for close to 200 yards and passing for over 440 in the first two weeks. Lamar is facing a Detroit Lions defense that hasn’t faced a rushing quarterback since Kyler Murray in Week 3 last season. To say they are rusty would be insensitive to rust.
The Lions are in way over their heads in this matchup. My expectation is that Lamar rushes for over 100 yards and passes for over 200. Breaking the slate all depends on him finding the end zone on his feet. I expect at least one rushing touchdown, the second could just be the nuts.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – $6,400
If it’s not broke, well you know the rest, ride it to paydirt!! That’s the plan this week with Matthew Stafford, who faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has surrendered the 4th most passing yards (703) so far this season. The Vegas books set the total at 54 points and the betting public raised it up to 56.
The expectations are for a shootout in Los Angeles this Sunday. Stafford is primed to throw the football 40 plus times in this game. Double stacking Stafford with Kupp or Woods might be a sneaky way to create some leverage on your GPP field.
Value – Quarterback
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions – $5,200
The Baltimore Ravens are missing most of their starting offensive line. That’s bad for a Ravens defense that was already giving up 25.5 fantasy points per game. Jared Goff has been tremendous this year, ranking 8th with 26.7 fantasy points per game. Goff hitting 6x in this matchup is not out of the question. He’s the best paydown quarterback on the slate this week.
Priced Up – Running Back
Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers – $7,200
Austin Ekeler has a juicy matchup in Week 3. He’s facing the 29th ranked Kansas City Chiefs defense that gives up 31.6 points to running backs per game. Vegas has this game slated for a 54.5 point shootout. After being targeted zero times in Week 1, Ekeler rebounded with nine receptions for 61 yards in Week 2. I expect Ekeler to continue to see both rushing and pass-catching volume against the Chiefs. Ekeler has yet to see the end zone this season, but that will change this week, as he’s a prime candidate to score at least once.
Mid-Range – Running Back
D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions – $5,800
Despite D’Andre Swift’s perpetual “Questionable” injury diagnosis, he’s played well when given the opportunity, averaging over 18 DraftKings points per game this season. Swift eye’s probably lit up when he heard the news that most of the Ravens starting defensive line will miss this game due to NFL COVID-19 protocols.
Swift scored over 20 DraftKings points only three times last year. This week he has a chance to make it two out of his last three with a strong performance against a weakened Ravens squad. All GPP systems are cleared for a monster performance out of Swift.
Value – Running Back
James White, New England Patriots – $4,900
James White is good, even without Tom Brady. This is good news to know while there is still money to be made with his price depressed below 5K. White is the perfect comfort blanket for rookie quarterback Mac Jones, already connecting on 12 of 13 passes for 94 yards.
The Saints are stout against the run but have shown susceptibility against pass-catching backs, giving up 8 catches for 85 yards so far this season. Look for the Patriots to play small football this week, keeping the game in front of Mac and in White’s hands.
Priced Up – Wide Receiver
Tyler Locket, Seattle Seahawks – $7,400
Tyler Lockett has been DraftKings gold the first two weeks of the season!! This week, he’s only priced up $200, which makes him a tremendous upside play. What’s even better is that he’s currently only being rostered on 9.6% of GPP builds according to OccupyFantasy.com. Lockett and Metcalf are facing a Minnesota Vikings defense that has given up 107 fantasy points to wide receivers through the first two weeks.
Lockett is the truth my guy @MattHarmon has been preaching for a while now.
I’m riding Lockett until he runs cold and there is no indication that it’s happening this week against a plush Viking’s secondary. Lockett and Load this week!
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants – $5,900
According to PFF, Sterling Shepard has a top 8 cornerback matchup with week. Through the first two games, he’s clearly been Daniel Jones’s preferred target, hauling in 16 of 19 targets for over 200 yards and a touchdown. The Atlanta secondary has already given up five touchdowns to wide receivers and I expect that trend to continue this week. Shepard is averaging 22 points per game, a total I could see him eclipsing. A GPP stack with Jones isn’t a terrible idea either, just saying.
Value – Wide Receiver
Marvin Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars – $4,900
Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars offense’s lone bright spot this season has been free agent Marvin Jones. Jones is leading the team in targets, receptions, touchdowns, and DraftKings points. He’s currently priced $400 less than D.J. Chark, who only has four catches on 16 targets.
My Chalk Blocked cohost Bo McBrayer has gone on record that he wants nothing to do this Jones, but at $4,900 find me another wide receiver who has two touchdown upside in a game we know he will be targeted close to 10 times. Jones is a perfect low-risk, high-reward play this week against an Arizona secondary that just gave up three scores to Kirk Cousins last week.
Priced Up – Tight End
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – $8,200
Through the first two games of the season, Travis Kelce has been Travis Kelce. He’s leading all tight ends in fantasy points, averaging 26.3 points per game. This week Kelce will be matched up with Kyzir White, who PFF gives him the highest graded advantage of the week. If you are paying up for Kelce, this gives me confidence that he can score 20 plus points.
Mid-Range – Tight End
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions – $5,200
T.J. Hockenson is a monster! He’s second in targets to only Darren Waller and is averaging over 23 DraftKings points per game. This week he faces a depleted Ravens defense that will be missing most of its starting front and a few linebackers. Huge advantage for Hockenson and Jared Goff. I expect Hockenson to score 20 plus points this week and come close to hitting the 4x.
Value – Tight End
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – $4,900
Kyle Pitts is going to break out. The question is when. The answer is this week. Russell Gage is OUT for week 3, which means Pitts could be called on more in the middle of the field. I’m projecting Pitts for 7 catches for 65 yards and a touchdown for 19.5 fantasy points. against the Giants. Pitts is a great priced-down option this week if you are looking for upside and don’t want to pay up for Kelce or Waller.