Nimble GPP: Plays to Get You Paid

By Scott Simpson

Priced Up – Quarterback

Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Welcome to NFL Week 1! Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value.” The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.

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Play – Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – $8,200 

So I checked my notes from last week guys and apparently this Kyler Murray fella is good at the football. And by “good” I obviously mean that he’s a human joystick/touchdown machine extraordinaire. His five total touchdowns included one rushing and four through the air, two to both DeAndre Hopkins and Christain Kirk respectively.

This week Murray will be facing a Minnesota Vikings’ defense that is trying desperately to be better than dreadful like last year, but the results from Week 1 were just more of the same. Currently, the Vikings are projected to give up 27.75 points to the Cardinals according to the Vegas sharps.

Murray has touchdown rushing upside every time he touches the ball in the red zone. RuntheSims.com currently projects Murray for the second-highest ceiling this week, only behind Tom Brady. I can’t wait to see the frustrated sideline cutaways of the Angry Keebler Elf turned Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer as Murray torches his defense this week.

Mid-Range – Quarterback

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 12: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – $6,400

Matthew Stafford finally has a head coach who isn’t a clown (insert any picture of Matt Patricia here) and it shows. Stafford came out of the gate on absolute fire, tossing for 321 yards and three scores against the Chicago Bears. Stafford has a stable of wide receivers this year (Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson) and the versatile Darrell Henderson catching balls out the backfield.

Last week the Indianapolis Colts gave up four passing touchdowns to Russell Wilson and company. Look for the LA Rams to step on the gas peddle in this away matchup, which they are favored in by 3.5 points. Paying down for Stafford and stacking him with Kupp or Woods opens up your salary for high upside players like Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffery. Stafford might be my highest rostered quarterback at only $6,400.

Value – Quarterback

Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos – $5,400

Teddy Bridgewater looked good last week. Sure it was the terrible Dave Gettleman helmed New Giants, but now he faces the even more terribler, if that’s even a word, oh it’s not, Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense who just made Tyrod Taylor look like Deshaun Watson. Losing Jerry Jeudy is a blow, but Tim Patrick is the best 4th string wide receiver in all of football, so I don’t expect him to miss a beat. As a matter of fact, I expect him to 4x and score over 23 points with week.  

Priced Up – Running Back

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – SEPTEMBER 12: Nick Chubb #24 of the Cleveland Browns scores a touchdown during the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – $7,800

Nick Chubb might be the best Cash RB play on the whole DraftKings Main Slate this week. PFF gives the Browns a 138% run blocking advantage over the Houston Texans’ porous rush defense. I can still remember David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor rushing all over the Texans to end the 2020 season.

I expect Chubb to rush for over 150 yards and at least one score, with the potential for another. Currently, RuntheSims.com ranks Chubb as a top-five running back with a ceiling above 30 fantasy points. If you are looking for a high-priced running with huge upside and a strong floor, Chubb is your man.

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Mid-Range – Running Back

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks – $6,100

Chris Carson ran well in Week 1, rushing for 91 yards and averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He hauled in all three of his targets but failed to find the end-zone and only scored 13.7 DraftKings’ points. This week, the Tennessee Titans roll into town fresh off their home opener/ass whooping at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals.

According to RuntheSims.com, Carson has one of the best points per dollar values at 3.64 this week. The Titans gave up 159 total yards to running backs last week to Cardinal running backs. Look for Carson to do damage as a pass receiver as well as a rusher in this matchup and score close to 20 DraftKings points, making him a smash in Cash and GPP play as well.

Value – Running Back

Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers – $5,000 

Elijah Mitchell is hot! He was the most sought-after waiver wire claim heading into Week 2, My cohost at The Fantasy Millionaires spent 100% of his FAAB on him this week in our home league. The question is, will his initial success continue, or will Kyle Shanahan scuttle his launch into fantasy glory? I for one believe the latter this week.

Last week the 49ers’ opponent in Week 2, the Philadelphia Eagles, gave up 170 total combined yards and 25 fantasy points to running backs. Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson, to be exact. If those names don’t immediately ring a bell, it’s because they aren’t NFL starting-caliber running backs, so don’t beat yourself up about it. All indications point to Mitchell being featured in Week 2, which means he’s a low-priced GPP dart I want to have in my lineups.

Priced Up – Wide Receiver 

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 12: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills shows off his cleats prior to a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium on September 12, 2021, in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills – $7,700

Stefon Diggs balled out in Week 2 last year against the Miami Dolphins, scoring 32.3 DraftKings points and finishing as the second-highest scoring wide receiver, behind only Calvin Ridley by 0.6. Fast forward to Week 2 of this year and Diggs is coming off of a 13 target, nine catch performance against a stingy Steelers secondary. Diggs has the highest ceiling of any wide receivers this week and could very well be a slate breaker for those willing to spend up for him.

Mid-Range – Wide Receiver 

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,600

According to PFF, Chris Godwin has a top 5 cornerback matchup with week and RuntheSims.com projects Godwin with the highest ceiling for Buc’s wide receivers. Brady targeted Godwin 14 times last Thursday night against the Cowboys. Godwin scored 27.5 points and projects to score 20 plus again this week against a Falcons team that gave up two touchdowns to Eagle’s wide receivers in Week 1. Look for Godwin to continue to lead the Buccaneers in targets and be a GPP machine this week.

Value – Wide Receiver 

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins – $4,500

Will Fuller is suddenly out this week! Good news for Jaylen Waddle and his $4,500 price tag. Last week Waddle hauled in four receptions for 61 yards and a score. Waddle will once again be starting and should see plenty of volume given the projected negative game script Vegas is predicting. Waddle’s ceiling is 20 points, exactly the upside I’m looking for in a wide receiver in the $4,500 salary range.

Priced Up – Tight End 

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 13: Tight end Darren Waller #83 of the Las Vegas Raiders dives into the end zone to score a touchdown on a 10-yard pass play after spinning away from defensive back Chuck Clark #36 of the Baltimore Ravens in the fourth quarter of their game at Allegiant Stadium on September 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Raiders defeated the Ravens 33-27 in overtime. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders – $7,600

Darren Waller is a beast!! Last week he saw 19 targets. 19!!! Holy shit that’s a lot of targets. He’s obviously the focal point of the Raiders offense, who will be missing Josh Jacobs this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Even though PFF doesn’t particularly love his matchup against Steeler’s linebacker Devin Bush, I do. Waller has a seven-inch height advantage over Bush. Bush will need a step ladder to defend Waller this week. Waller is a GPP and Cash play all day.

Mid-Range – Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $4,700  

The Atlanta Falcons already rank near the bottom of the league against the tight end position, giving up close to 20 points and a touchdown in Week 1. Rob Gronkowski, or Gronk to the kids, exploded in Week one for eight catches, 90 yards, and two touchdowns. Currently, Gronk and Tom Brady are tied for second all-time with 100 career touchdown connections. Only Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning have more with 114.

Gronk is priced up, but not enough. He’s set to smash his 3x and has a strong floor of close to 12 points according to RuntheSims.com projections. He’s a great Cash game play, but an even better GPP weapon to have in your arsenal. Look for Gronk to score around 18 fantasy points this week, almost hitting the 4x threshold.

Value – Tight End 

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos – $4,200

Noah Fant was the 5th most targeted tight end in Week 1, hauling in six of eight passes for 75 yards against the New York Giants. This week Fant faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that made the Houston Texans resemble a professional football team (which clearly they are not) last week. Fant has a tremendous ceiling this week and is a great value tight end at only $4,200.

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