By Scott Simpson
Priced Up – Quarterback
Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Welcome to NFL Week 1! Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value.” The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
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Play – Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – $8,200
So I checked my notes from last week guys and apparently this Kyler Murray fella is good at the football. And by “good” I obviously mean that he’s a human joystick/touchdown machine extraordinaire. His five total touchdowns included one rushing and four through the air, two to both DeAndre Hopkins and Christain Kirk respectively.
This week Murray will be facing a Minnesota Vikings’ defense that is trying desperately to be better than dreadful like last year, but the results from Week 1 were just more of the same. Currently, the Vikings are projected to give up 27.75 points to the Cardinals according to the Vegas sharps.
Murray has touchdown rushing upside every time he touches the ball in the red zone. RuntheSims.com currently projects Murray for the second-highest ceiling this week, only behind Tom Brady. I can’t wait to see the frustrated sideline cutaways of the Angry Keebler Elf turned Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer as Murray torches his defense this week.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – $6,400
Matthew Stafford finally has a head coach who isn’t a clown (insert any picture of Matt Patricia here) and it shows. Stafford came out of the gate on absolute fire, tossing for 321 yards and three scores against the Chicago Bears. Stafford has a stable of wide receivers this year (Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson) and the versatile Darrell Henderson catching balls out the backfield.
Last week the Indianapolis Colts gave up four passing touchdowns to Russell Wilson and company. Look for the LA Rams to step on the gas peddle in this away matchup, which they are favored in by 3.5 points. Paying down for Stafford and stacking him with Kupp or Woods opens up your salary for high upside players like Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffery. Stafford might be my highest rostered quarterback at only $6,400.
Value – Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos – $5,400
Teddy Bridgewater looked good last week. Sure it was the terrible Dave Gettleman helmed New Giants, but now he faces the even more terribler, if that’s even a word, oh it’s not, Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense who just made Tyrod Taylor look like Deshaun Watson. Losing Jerry Jeudy is a blow, but Tim Patrick is the best 4th string wide receiver in all of football, so I don’t expect him to miss a beat. As a matter of fact, I expect him to 4x and score over 23 points with week.
Priced Up – Running Back
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – $7,800
Nick Chubb might be the best Cash RB play on the whole DraftKings Main Slate this week. PFF gives the Browns a 138% run blocking advantage over the Houston Texans’ porous rush defense. I can still remember David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor rushing all over the Texans to end the 2020 season.
I expect Chubb to rush for over 150 yards and at least one score, with the potential for another. Currently, RuntheSims.com ranks Chubb as a top-five running back with a ceiling above 30 fantasy points. If you are looking for a high-priced running with huge upside and a strong floor, Chubb is your man.
Mid-Range – Running Back
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks – $6,100
Chris Carson ran well in Week 1, rushing for 91 yards and averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He hauled in all three of his targets but failed to find the end-zone and only scored 13.7 DraftKings’ points. This week, the Tennessee Titans roll into town fresh off their home opener/ass whooping at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals.
According to RuntheSims.com, Carson has one of the best points per dollar values at 3.64 this week. The Titans gave up 159 total yards to running backs last week to Cardinal running backs. Look for Carson to do damage as a pass receiver as well as a rusher in this matchup and score close to 20 DraftKings points, making him a smash in Cash and GPP play as well.
Value – Running Back
Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers – $5,000
Elijah Mitchell is hot! He was the most sought-after waiver wire claim heading into Week 2, My cohost at The Fantasy Millionaires spent 100% of his FAAB on him this week in our home league. The question is, will his initial success continue, or will Kyle Shanahan scuttle his launch into fantasy glory? I for one believe the latter this week.
Last week the 49ers’ opponent in Week 2, the Philadelphia Eagles, gave up 170 total combined yards and 25 fantasy points to running backs. Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson, to be exact. If those names don’t immediately ring a bell, it’s because they aren’t NFL starting-caliber running backs, so don’t beat yourself up about it. All indications point to Mitchell being featured in Week 2, which means he’s a low-priced GPP dart I want to have in my lineups.
Priced Up – Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills – $7,700
Stefon Diggs balled out in Week 2 last year against the Miami Dolphins, scoring 32.3 DraftKings points and finishing as the second-highest scoring wide receiver, behind only Calvin Ridley by 0.6. Fast forward to Week 2 of this year and Diggs is coming off of a 13 target, nine catch performance against a stingy Steelers secondary. Diggs has the highest ceiling of any wide receivers this week and could very well be a slate breaker for those willing to spend up for him.
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,600
According to PFF, Chris Godwin has a top 5 cornerback matchup with week and RuntheSims.com projects Godwin with the highest ceiling for Buc’s wide receivers. Brady targeted Godwin 14 times last Thursday night against the Cowboys. Godwin scored 27.5 points and projects to score 20 plus again this week against a Falcons team that gave up two touchdowns to Eagle’s wide receivers in Week 1. Look for Godwin to continue to lead the Buccaneers in targets and be a GPP machine this week.
Value – Wide Receiver
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins – $4,500
Will Fuller is suddenly out this week! Good news for Jaylen Waddle and his $4,500 price tag. Last week Waddle hauled in four receptions for 61 yards and a score. Waddle will once again be starting and should see plenty of volume given the projected negative game script Vegas is predicting. Waddle’s ceiling is 20 points, exactly the upside I’m looking for in a wide receiver in the $4,500 salary range.
Priced Up – Tight End
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders – $7,600
Darren Waller is a beast!! Last week he saw 19 targets. 19!!! Holy shit that’s a lot of targets. He’s obviously the focal point of the Raiders offense, who will be missing Josh Jacobs this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Even though PFF doesn’t particularly love his matchup against Steeler’s linebacker Devin Bush, I do. Waller has a seven-inch height advantage over Bush. Bush will need a step ladder to defend Waller this week. Waller is a GPP and Cash play all day.
Mid-Range – Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $4,700
The Atlanta Falcons already rank near the bottom of the league against the tight end position, giving up close to 20 points and a touchdown in Week 1. Rob Gronkowski, or Gronk to the kids, exploded in Week one for eight catches, 90 yards, and two touchdowns. Currently, Gronk and Tom Brady are tied for second all-time with 100 career touchdown connections. Only Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning have more with 114.
Gronk is priced up, but not enough. He’s set to smash his 3x and has a strong floor of close to 12 points according to RuntheSims.com projections. He’s a great Cash game play, but an even better GPP weapon to have in your arsenal. Look for Gronk to score around 18 fantasy points this week, almost hitting the 4x threshold.
Value – Tight End
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos – $4,200
Noah Fant was the 5th most targeted tight end in Week 1, hauling in six of eight passes for 75 yards against the New York Giants. This week Fant faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that made the Houston Texans resemble a professional football team (which clearly they are not) last week. Fant has a tremendous ceiling this week and is a great value tight end at only $4,200.
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