Nimble w/Numbers

Love and Courage

Love is powerful. It is the strongest emotion and the most potent word. Love drives us to do great things and also to insanity. Every language has a word for it. Each person on Earth has it somewhere inside of them. From the time we are born, we lock eyes with our mother in a gaze that represents the purest connection of love. Love makes loss infinitely more difficult.

My mother is a case study of loving through loss. She has persisted through numbing tragedies to remain a beacon of happiness and positivity. Her sister, Terri “Aberdoo” Hubbard succumbed to metastatic melanoma at 26 years old. She left behind three sons and a listless husband. Terri passed just before I was born, but I was very close with my cousins. It was important to my mom that they were loved.

Mom was there for Grandma when her husband moved on from lung cancer. They spent an entire weekend scrubbing Grandma’s walls clean of the tar from decades of cigarette smoke. It was therapeutic. Grandma then moved into the guest house on the ranch, where she and Mom built a huge garden that they tend together to this day.

Cancer came calling for Mom multiple times through the years. She had her own melanomas carved from her body, leaving behind scars and reminders to be thankful for every sunrise. There was a lump in her breast detected during a routine mammogram when I was 19. That was the most fear the woman had ever expressed. He voice quivered over the phone when she told me she had breast cancer. My exact words to her are tattooed inside of a pink ribbon on my left ribcage. “If anyone can… it’s you.”

We lost my stepdad to pancreatic cancer last month, with only four weeks notice that his time on Earth was expiring. My mother didn’t sleep at all that month. She was in full-blown love mode. She took care of John every way she could. She kept up with his meds, fed him, bathed him. They made one last trip to Alaska and she made sure he got to do everything he set out to do in his remaining time, as long as he had the strength. The gravity of losing her husband of 20 years didn’t strike her until she told me about meeting with the mortuary the day after John’s passing.

I owe any shred of courage and strength I have to my mother. COVID took away her desire to have a gathering for John’s celebration of life, so I’m spending my paid bereavement day this Friday to celebrate John and Mom. I’m cooking up ribs, chicken, beans, and mac-and-cheese. It’s exactly what John would want us to do. I’m taking over Mom’s kitchen, so she can sit down with a whiskey drink and breathe. We’re cooking for 20, but it will just be six adults. Grandma will be baking up her peach cobbler and blackberry crisp. It will all be made with love. Just like John always said, “Nobody in this family has ever starved to death (and never will).”

Speaking of living fat and happy, last week was one of the most successful versions of “Hot Cash” in history. The formula was sound and our plays were huge money makers in all formats. Week 5 represents a slightly smaller Main Slate, with another unique set of matchups. Let’s get cooking and build these lineups with love.

Week 3 DFS Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

KYLER MURRAY: VS SAN FRANCISCO ($8,000)

You may have noticed that Murray has been locked into this article every week. Regardless of salary and matchup, he is a brilliant cash play. As long as K1 is fully healthy, he is the perfect DFS quarterback for all formats.

JALEN HURTS: @ CAROLINA ($7,000)

Quickly approaching Kyler Murray territory, Hurts is another weapon in the DFS realm. Since he’s not as good of a real quarterback as Murray, he will be much more affordable on a weekly basis. Even his ugly performances will be profitable in cash games.

DAK PRESCOTT: VS NY GIANTS ($6,900)

The main slate is missing some elite offenses, but the Cowboys remain. Expect Dak to be a very popular GPP choice in this cushy matchup with the pathetic Giants, but his very reasonable salary allows you to build a juggernaut cash lineup around him.

DEREK CARR: VS CHICAGO ($6,100)

Carr showed a lot of resilience in the second half against the Chargers last week. He still has the most passing yards in the NFL and goes up against a Bears defense that gives it up on deep balls. I love Carr to surpass 300 yards and get that nice bonus on Sunday.

DANIEL JONES: @ DALLAS ($6,000)***

My favorite quarterback in cash this week is Danny Dimes, who faces my Cowboys. Even though he will likely turn the ball over, this game is going to be a very high total. Jones’ rushing, plus a negative game script for New York, allows for extreme optimism on his DK scoring projection.

JARED GOFF: @ MINNESOTA ($5,300)

It was a tough choice to give Goff the nod over Fields in this tier, but the tiebreaker was how abysmal this Vikings defense is. Fields has to deal with a tough Raiders pass rush, while Goff will have no-name receivers running wide open all over the field in Minnesota. I hope this one will also shoot out, giving Goff a great shot at cracking 300 passing yards at a bargain.

Running Backs

DERRICK HENRY: @ JACKSONVILLE ($9,000)

King Henry is officially in CMC territory at this salary. I’d be fading him if it weren’t for his newfound usage in the Titans’ passing game. He also would even be leading the league in rushing if we only counted his yards after contact. He might be tough to build around, but if you save at other positions, there’s nobody I’d rather have.

EZEKIEL ELLIOTT: VS NY GIANTS ($7,000)***

After a tough Week 1, Zeke is getting fed. He is as good of a pure running back as there is in the NFL and seems to score touchdowns in every game. The Giants are 28th against opposing running backs and trending even worse, with the loss of Blake Martinez. Elliott should have a monster game in this one.

NICK CHUBB: @ LA CHARGERS ($6,700)

The blueprint for beating the mighty Chargers happens to be Cleveland’s strongest attribute. Dallas ran the ball right down their throats. Chubb and Hunt are both viable for tournament play, but give me Chubb at a nice discount, where the passing attack will be hampered.

JAMES ROBINSON: VS TENNESSEE ($6,000)

The sheer volume that JRob is getting lately would be enough to play him against a horrid Titans defense. The ability to make the most of that volume makes Robinson a borderline smash play for all DFS formats this week. DJ Chark’s injury should push the Jags to emphasize the running game even more to take the pressure off of Trevor Lawrence.

DAMIEN WILLIAMS: @ LAS VEGAS ($5,600)

The loss of David Montgomery really hurts Chicago’s chances to beat the Raiders. That is, unless they can establish some semblance of a running game to keep the pass rush off of Justin Fields. Williams offers some receiving upside, even if he gives away some carries to Khalil Herbert.

TONY POLLARD: VS NY GIANTS ($5,600)

Along the same lines as Elliott, the Giants are absolutely terrible on defense. Pollard provides a nice receiving threshold to go with his explosive running. I think Dallas puts up 40 points with ease on Sunday, so no chance I’m fading a weapon like Pollard.

LEONARD FOURNETTE*: VS MIAMI ($5,200)

This week’s secret ingredient is an ultra value-priced Lenny against a dreadful Dolphins run defense. Until further notice, Fournette is the top dog in the Tampa backfield over Ronald Jones and Gio Bernard. I will have Lenny in every cash build, banking on an easy 4x+ value.

Wide Receivers

DAVANTE ADAMS: @ CINCINNATI ($8,200)

If you were hurt by Davante’s down week last week, have no fear. He only has a few of those each season. Aaron Rodgers won’t stop feeding him, especially in the red zone. Spend up with confidence that Adams is going to rebound in a big way against the Bengals.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON: VS DETROIT ($7,700)

Jefferson is truly a special talent. He is a fantastic possession receiver, commanding targets from all over the field. He is also a dynamic big play threat. Since Cousins still doesn’t have Dalvin Cook at full strength, look for him to pepper Jefferson and Thielen all game against a terrible Lions defense.

TERRY MCLAURIN: VS NEW ORLEANS ($7,400)

Yes, the Saints defense is good. They’re not that good against opposing wide receivers. McLaurin is also matchup-proof in cash games with his enormous target share. Taylor Heinicke is giving us all assurance of that. Even Marshon Lattimore struggles against speedy receivers as skilled as Scary Terry.

DEEBO SAMUEL: @ ARIZONA ($7,100)

Deebo cannot be stopped. He seems to have massive performances every week he’s healthy enough to suit up. The Trey Lance era is likely to commence this week, giving even more reason to plug Deebo into your lineups. Adding more big play opportunities to an already-staggering target share is exactly what we’re looking for.

ADAM THIELEN: VS DETROIT ($6,600)

Is it going to be a Jefferson game or Thielen game? A lot of times, the answer is simply “yes.” I don’t have any reason to think otherwise this week against the Lions, especially with Dalvin Cook running with a bad wheel.

DIONTAE JOHNSON: VS DENVER ($6,500)

This is a very tough matchup, but just another feather in the cap for Diontae. Big Ben is already hurt and playing horribly, but he still likes to force feed Johnson in the passing game. Every quarterback loves a guy who is always open, even if he himself is disintegrating.

AMARI COOPER: VS NY GIANTS ($6,100)

There is a lot to be said about a player who still performs, despite fighting through multiple injuries. Cooper is most definitely not a soft player, gutting out a 15-point performance last week against Carolina. The Giants defense is truly laughable. Almost as laughable as this salary for the Cowboys’ most productive receiver this season.

HUNTER RENFROW: VS CHICAGO ($4,900)

DraftKings releases the player salaries on Monday morning. This is a classic Monday night blind spot. Renfrow had a huge game against the Chargers, but was already set at $4,900 beforehand. Pay attention every week to this little edge. The Bears really struggle against the wide receiver position. Even without a ton of upside, “Third-and-Renfrow” is an amazing asset with volume for your 50/50 lineups.

LAVISKA SHENAULT: VS TENNESSEE ($4,800)***

Lock it in with Laviska, whose role completely changed following DJ Chark’s injury. His aDOT soared to 13 yards in Week 4, where also saw a big jump in target volume. Marvin Jones is a good play, but Shenault is a great one. The Titans might have the worst secondary in the NFL, so even the Jaguars have a shot at winning this one.

DEONTE HARRIS: @ WASHINGTON ($4,100)

Don’t look now, but Harris leads the Saints in targets. It’s not a very impressive stat (look at his competition), but it is fact. Washington has been the league’s most disappointing defense, especially against opposing wide receivers. Sean Payton will always feature his favorite players. Harris is definitely one of those guys.

Tight Ends

DARREN WALLER: VS CHICAGO ($7,300)***

Don’t get cute this week. No Kelce on the main slate means you can technically spend down on the position, but most of the other decent options are in tougher matchups to predict good volume. Waller is the outlier, commanding the lion’s share of targets in the Raiders offense.

TJ HOCKENSON: @ MINNESOTA ($5,500)

Hockenson got back on track in the volume department, with eight targets last week. Even though he has cooled off from his torrid start, he’s a very reliable piece against a putrid Vikings secondary. Another mark in his column is the Vikings’ strong pass rush, which could force Goff to check down more to his backs and (of course) Hockenson.

DALTON SCHULTZ: VS NY GIANTS ($4,400)

There isn’t a more surprising star at the tight end position than Schultz, but I’m here for it. Although not as athletic or polished as a receiver as Blake Jarwin, his chemistry with Dak Prescott is something to behold. The Giants can’t defend anyone, so a DFS player should not hesitate to lock in as many Cowboys as possible this week.

MIKE GESICKI: @ TAMPA BAY ($4,200)

When facing the Buccaneers, it’s easy to decide who to play. Running backs? Absolutely not. Receivers? Yes, please! Gesicki is among Jacoby Brissett’s favorite options, even if he isn’t making a lot of explosive plays out of the plethora of targets. I’d wager that Gesicki is the Dolphin most likely to score a touchdown this week, too.

JONNU SMITH: @ HOUSTON ($3,300)

Which team is stone-worst in the NFL at defending tight ends? Why, it’s the Houston Texans. They’re also bad at many other things. I like both Jonnu and Hunter Henry this week, giving the nod to Smith for this article based on his $400 discount.

ANTHONY FIRKSER: @ JACKSONVILLE ($3,100)

Before the Titans traded for Julio Jones, there was a growing contingent of fantasy experts that were high on Firkser’s chance to get a lot of work in the passing game. He garnered five targets in his first healthy game of 2021 last week. Jones is very questionable to suit up in this one. Even if he does play, there’s good reason to plug Firkser in as a value play at the position.

Nagging Nagy

I am a staunch believer in fate. Everything happens for a reason. I wasn’t meant to beat The Nimble One in Week 3. One would think that a second-consecutive loss to my arch-nemesis would drive me into seclusion. I put my trust in a rookie quarterback in his NFL debut against a tough defense, fully understanding that his coach is an unpalatable mix of arrogance and incompetence. It’s my fault. Plus, I’m about as reclusive as a howler monkey during mating season.

I went to Twitter to vent my disgust with that buffoon who tried to get his first-round pick killed last week. I lost to Scott by four points. If I had plugged in Mac Jones of all people, I would have triumphed with a lineup that was peerless and lethal. There would be no victory lap from Simpson, but instead familiar deference to my head-to-head omnipotence.

I broke my own rule in Week 3 by getting too cute. I served up my only losing lineup to a man I should never lose to, as great as he is at DFS himself. It was a tough pill to swallow, but I learned a valuable lesson: be true to your own game and win Week 4 in a merciless fashion.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Matthew Stafford – LA Rams – $7,000

The Rams are en fuego in the passing game. Stafford has found a second prime with the Sean McVay offense, lighting up the scoreboard like he did when he was chucking it up to Megatron. Arizona has a great pass rush, but their corners are very suspect. This contest is shootout city and I’m going full holiday ham with a game stack.

RB – Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans – $8,800

Do you know how to slow down Derrick Henry? No? Well, neither do the Jets. AJ Brown and Julio Jones are both inactive, so the question will be, “Do we give the ball to our all-pro running back or a guy named Nick Westbrook-Ikhine?”

RB – Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $8,400

I just knew that getting back to my roots and familiar dominance would include wedging the two best running backs into my build with a shoehorn. Kamara has a massive rushing advantage against the Giants’ 32nd-ranked run defense. That doesn’t even include his presence as the best receiver on the Saints.

WR – Robert Woods – LA Rams – $5,300

Bobby Trees is due. With all the (deserved) attention falling on Kupp, Woods stands to break out against the Cardinals. He’s also a whopping $2,500 cheaper than the Eastern Washington breakout star.

WR – AJ Green, Arizona Cardinals – $4,500

As it turns out, Green is still a very good professional receiver. He is healthy and no longer under Mike Brown’s thumb in Cincinnati. Nuk will be locked into battle with Jalen Ramsey, leaving the Z receiver to run his routes against someone else.

WR – Curtis Samuel, Washington Football Team – $3,000

I couldn’t keep this play to myself any longer. Samuel, whom last season I famously entered into a blank roster and asked “now what,” is back off the IR and falls into a min-priced date with the pathetic Atlanta Falcons. He is a weapon. He will be productive. He is the best GPP dart on the board, for those who are wondering.

TE – Tyler Higbee, Arizona Cardinals – $4,600

I am an avowed Higbee hater, but I will admit I was wrong about him last week. Kupp is going to draw all the attention and is at an unattainable price for me. Higbee is in line for a lot of low-aDOT volume if the Cards can heat up Stafford.

FLEX – Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals – $4,600

The public is once again sleeping on Mighty Mouse. He had his splash performance in Week 2 and followed it up with a dud. If the Cardinals want to upset the Rams and remain undefeated, they will need Moore to have another big day. I’m here for it.

DST – New Orleans Saints – $3,800

Don’t look now, but this Saints defense is good. They also host a Giants team with a literal pile of garbage at receiver, to go with their folly-prone quarterback. This is the most I’ve spent on a defense in a long time, but I’ll be damned if this one burns me.

Bo, Meet Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers met Bo McBrayer one time. You won’t hear Aaron talk about it often, but Bo, on the other hand, must have been impressed with the guy because he won’t stop talking about it. It goes something like this, Bo acknowledged him for putting the hurting on his Cowboys and Aaron Rodgers told him to go long and then threw him a pinpoint pass in a pool, or the Chico Rose Bowl, or something, I don’t know, point being Bo dropped the pass and lost the game. I don’t know I didn’t really pay attention, anyway, Bo needs a reintroduction to his old friend, so I decided to win my third H2H in a row against him with a bit of irony this week. Bo, Meet Aaron Rodgers, again.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – $6,800

Aaron Rodgers is facing a Pittsburgh Steelers’ secondary that ranks 28th, giving up 45 points on average to wide receivers. Aaron Jones is nursing an ankle injury, which means the offense could run through Rodgers this week. Stacking Aaron Rodgers with Davante Adams is expensive but has a big upside in GPP tournaments.

RB – Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans – $8,800  

Derrick Henry is the Tennessee Titans offense with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones on the field. With them both out this week due to injury, King Henry will once again run the Titans touches and volume will reward us all with touchdowns and hopefully a 100-yard rushing bonus!!

RB – Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills – $5,300

Zack Moss has played well in both of his first two games, averaging over 17 points. This week the Houston Texans roll into Buffalo to take on the high-scoring Bills. Houston gives up over 26 fantasy points to the running back position, but my money is on the OVER. Moss has 20 points upside, and that’s what I’m chasing.

WR – Odell Beckham Jr. – Cleveland Browns – $5,800

Odell Beckham Jr. return to action last week and was targeted nine times by Baker Mayfield. The points total in this matchup is 51.5 points, which means that the Browns will be need to score points to beat the high scoring, much maligned Kirk Cousin led Vikings. I like Odell for 20 points, with one score from 30 yards out. Let’s go!!

WR – D.K. Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks – $7,200

Graham Barfield was basically drooling on the Fantasypts Premium podcast this week when D.K. Metcalf was brought up. Metclaf smashed the 49ers last season, scoring 43 points in Week 8. I expect Metcalf to eat Zeke style this week.

WR – Nick Westbrook-Ikhine – Tennessee Titans – $3,200

With both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown sideline, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will get the start this week, after filling in well last week. Westbrook-Ikhine caught all four of his targets for 51 yards and a score. The Jets are young and missing the veteran Marcus Maye brought in to stabilize the secondary. Look for Westbrook-Ikhine to be used by Ryan Tannehill throughout the game to move the chains and sustain drives. I just need him to score 12 points to get my money’s worth.

TE – Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – $8,100

Travis Kelce is going to feast this week. PFF gives him a 93 rating, the highest of any tight end in Week 4. Kelce is the most consistent tight end is the best Cash dollar-for-dollar play this week.

Flex – Will Dissly, Seattle Seahawks – $2,600

The Seattle Seahawks have one healthy tight end and his name is Will Dissly. That’s great news for me and for Will Dissly, who should see plenty of targets with Gerald Everett OUT on the NFL COVID-19 list. With Tyler Lockett ailing, I expect Russ to have to spread the ball around a bit to his receivers, Dissly included.

DST – Detroit Lions  – $2,200

Paying down for defense is my Cash and GPP strategy all season. Last week we hit fire with the $2,100 priced Bengals against Big Ben and company. This week we are counting on Matt Nagy to continue his long hard suck as Bears’ Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator. I’m also hoping that I finally get to see some knee-biting from Dan Campbell and pride this week, who might just get their first W of the season.

Pinkies Up

His name was Carl Ruiz, but everyone affectionately called him “The Cuban.” Carl was a staple as a competitor and judge some of my favorite Food Network Shows, including Guy’s Grocery Games (GGG) and Chopped. He was the first television personality I actually enjoyed following on social media. His charisma and joie de vivre were matched only by his talent in the kitchen. Furthermore, he was always interacting with his fans. If you were sipping bourbon and eating a hot dog from a street cart on a Tuesday night, you could summon The Cuban with the hashtags “ruizing” or “pinkies up.” He shared his love of indulgence with the world every day and was beloved by all.

Carl tragically and suddenly passed away in September 2019. I was reminded of the anniversary of his death recently. I poured my Jim Beam (his favorite) and grilled up some kosher dogs with spicy brown mustard and grilled onions (also his favorite). His spirit lives on and will persist. I never got to meet the Cuban in person, but he made a profound impact on how I live my daily life through his kindness online. The message he projected to his followers and friends was always “do what makes you happy every day.”

Playing DFS makes me happy, especially when we all win together. The world has been a nasty place to live in the last couple of years. Find that enjoyment and unabashedly go for it. Carl would be making light of all the ridiculousness and raising a glizzy and a glass to us all, with a ringed pinky finger flapping in the breeze. Week 4 in the NFL has some great opportunities to double up with ease in cash games. Let’s drink to that. Salud!

Week 3 DFS Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

JOSH ALLEN: VS HOUSTON ($8,000)

Allen was the smash spot for the Nimble crew last week. He is a cool G more expensive this week but faces another amazingly soft matchup. Buffalo is running the ball more effectively than last season, but not more frequently. Allen is an easy cash gameplay every week.

RUSSELL WILSON: @ SAN FRANCISCO ($7,100)

Russ sure loves to cook, especially in the Bay Area. The 49ers defense is lacking je ne sais quois on defense without Robert Saleh calling the shots. With his receivers limping around, we also might see the resurgence of Mr. Unlimited on the ground.

MATTHEW STAFFORD: VS ARIZONA ($7,000)

You better stay off the tracks, because this passing game train isn’t slowing down any time soon. Stafford is a perfect fit for this McVay offense, making quick decisions down the field for tons of big plays. The Cards have a good pass rush, but their corners are below average. Play with confidence.

JALEN HURTS: VS KANSAS CITY ($6,900)

I’m loving that even Hurts’ bad games are fantasy gold. Between rushing and garbage time, he seems to be a lock for 20+ points. In a 50/50, that’s like one of those “set it and forget it” ovens from the infomercials.

DAK PRESCOTT: VS CAROLINA ($6,700)***

The 3-0 Panthers are getting way too much respect with this Dak salary. Carolina is feasting on bad quarterback play so far, but Dak is carving up defenses like an expert butcher. Without Jaycee Horn, the Cowboys passing attack is going to rip this defense to pieces.

TAYLOR HEINICKE: @ ATLANTA ($5,900)

Pick on the bad defenses in all DFS formats. It’s easy money. In his two starts, Heinicke is averaging 23.7 DK points. Atlanta’s pass defense is so ugly, even their mothers are rejecting Facetime calls. The Washington QB is also a sneaky GPP play, with Antonio Gibson nursing a shin injury.

Running Backs

DERRICK HENRY: @ NY JETS ($8,800)

Holy mother of chalk, please forgive us for our sins. I will be wedging Henry and Kamara into all my cash lineups with a shoe horn. Roster percentage be damned, we’re chasing big volume here. The Jets figure to be behind from the jump in this one, with a 250-pound nail in the coffin dishing out the blunt-force trauma.

ALVIN KAMARA: VS NY GIANTS ($8,400)***

We all guessed that the Saints offense would run through Kamara this year, as long as Michael Thomas was on the shelf. We also decided after Week 2 that Jameis Winston is still himself and Sean Payton wouldn’t be keen on putting a lot on Winston’s shoulders. Kamara should absolutely shred this Giants defense, now that they lost their middle linebacker for the season.

NAJEE HARRIS: @ GREEN BAY ($6,800)

My best cash call from last week was Mr. 19 targets himself. Did I see that coming? No. Can we expect it to continue? Actually, yes. Big Ben is not averse to checking down and Harris is a great weapon in the passing game. The Packers also don’t have the strongest run defense, so Najee should continue his consistent production.

DEANDRE SWIFT: @ CHICAGO ($6,200)

It’s official. DraftKings hates Swift. What more does he need to do to get an appropriate salary? I’m not mad, I’ll keep locking him into all my cash games and reaping the rewards. On receiving alone, he is worth every penny.

ZACK MOSS: VS HOUSTON ($5,300)

Who? The guy who was a healthy scratch in Week 1? Are you flippin’ serious?! Yes, Moss has re-asserted himself as the more productive Buffalo running back over Devin Singletary. Houston’s run defense is atrocious and Moss has also been valuable in the screen game.

TREY SERMON: VS SEATTLE ($5,000)

We aren’t likely to see Elijah Mitchell this week either, so Kyle Shanahan will begrudgingly turn to the higher pick from Ohio State again. The leading back last week was their fullback, but Seattle’s big weakness is stopping the run-off tackle. Sermon is in store for a monster game.

KENNY GAINWELL: VS KANSAS CITY ($4,300)

It turns out that Dougie wasn’t the only coach that refuses to give the ball to Miles Sanders. The garbage time and third-down passing work are going to the Memphis rookie, who is primed for the most volume of his young career against the Chiefs. This could also turn into the best GPP value on the slate.

Wide Receivers

DAVANTE ADAMS: VS PITTSBURGH ($7,900)

The target share is massive, the talent is even bigger. The absence of any other receivers with redeeming talent means the entire passing game runs through Adams. The Steelers corners have been exploited down the field all season, making for another no-brainer spend-up week for Davante.

COOPER KUPP: VS ARIZONA ($7,800)

This might be the most I’d spend on a player like Kupp. His regression week is coming, but until we see it, you can’t help but invest in this offense as a whole. We are also due for a Robert Woods week, but I think both guys are getting fat against Arizona.

TERRY MCLAURIN: @ ATLANTA ($6,900)

Bad defenses pay our bills in DFS. The Falcons also allow us to eat steak after the bills are paid. McLaurin is the apple of Heinicke’s eye and should have a humongous target share. I’m all for it, especially with his game-breaking upside to complement the volume.

DJ MOORE: @ DALLAS ($6,600)***

I’m not too keen on playing Sam Darnold this week, with CMC ruled out. I am, however, big on the potential of Moore breaking out against an exploitable Dallas secondary. Tre Diggs was NFC Defensive Player of the Month but doesn’t travel to shadow receivers. I expect Joe Brady to move Moore all over the formation to exploit the matchups and get him a lot of looks.

DEEBO SAMUEL: VS SEATTLE ($6,500)

As the season progresses, we can really solidify which trends will continue. One of these unexpected trends is the huge share of targets that have gone to Samuel. George Kittle is nursing a calf injury and Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t quite reaffirmed his role from last season. Seattle’s defense has been a letdown so far this season. Deebo is in another great spot to see work in the passing and rushing game.

ODELL BECKHAM JR: @ MINNESOTA ($5,800)

I was super impressed with OBJ’s first game back last week. He commanded a 31% target share from Baker Mayfield. He now squares off with an abysmal Vikings’ defense that is getting barbecued by everyone. This is more of a value than most players on the board.

COLE BEASLEY: VS HOUSTON ($5,400)

My good friend, Jordan Vanek pointed out that the Houston Texans run a lot of zone coverage. Their personnel is so bad that running man coverage would be a terrible idea against a passing attack as dangerous as Buffalo’s. Jordan’s point was that Beasley is the Bills’ weapon of choice against zone coverage. After a huge Week 3, the Beez should once again outpace his salary and return a huge value.

MICHAEL PITTMAN JR*: @ MIAMI ($5,400)

Don’t look now, but Carson Wentz has a thing for Pittman. He is peppering him with targets for the last two weeks. Miami is a solid defense, but expect more of the same volume from the USC product. Trust is a strong factor in predicting cash game values.

ROBERT WOODS: VS ARIZONA ($5,300)

Pepperidge Farm remembers when you could flip a coin between Woods and Kupp. Now, they are separated by $2,500 on DK. The volume hasn’t been as bad as the results, however, so plugging Bobby Trees into your cash lineup at a bargain could be quite fruitful. Arizona isn’t keen on covering any wide receivers this season, so take the value and run with it.

COREY DAVIS: VS TENNESSEE ($5,000)

You guys know I love a good revenge game. Although I don’t think there were any hard feelings between the Titans and Davis upon his departure, the narrative is there for a big game. Tennessee’s defense is horrible and Davis’ volume has been huge for New York. Zach Wilson loves to chuck the ball in Davis’ direction and this time, he might actually be open.

Tight Ends

TRAVIS KELCE: @ PHILADELPHIA ($8,100)***

Lock it in this week (and every week). Philly’s defense is just as fraudulent as I surmised before they were whipped by the Cowboys in primetime. The linebackers, namely Singleton, were lost in coverage all game. Now, imagine them trying to cover someone like Kelce. He’s still the WR3 overall in PPR scoring.

KYLE PITTS: VS WASHINGTON ($5,000)

It’s going to happen, guys. I have faith. Eventually, Arthur Smith is going to remove his head from the darkness and actually scheme some looks for his talented first-round pick. He hasn’t been terrible, and the snap share is still really solid (and rising). Washington has been a disappointment on defense on par with Matt Ryan at quarterback.

LOGAN THOMAS: @ ATLANTA (4,900)

In the same vein as Heinicke and McLaurin, we’re not reaching for the brakes when it comes to attacking the pathetic Atlanta defense. Thomas is as reliable and consistent as any tight end not named Kelce or Waller. He’s also not priced too prohibitively.

TYLER CONKLIN: VS CLEVELAND ($3,500)

Now that Conklin is in the mix, we saw KJ Osborn fade away last week. The Cleveland pass rush is incredible, so Cousins will be looking to get rid of the ball quickly. I love this value play, especially after his target share last week against Seattle.

DALTON SCHULTZ: VS CAROLINA ($3,400)

The Top-2 graded tight ends on PFF are Travis Kelce and (drumroll…) Dalton Schultz? I am shocked. I have never been impressed with Schultz’s game (as a Dallas fan), but he is balling out this season. Carolina’s defense has been amazing, albeit against the softest schedule in the NFL. The price is right to get a piece of a nice shootout game.

EVAN ENGRAM: @ NEW ORLEANS ($3,000)

Yes, he’s still a terrible football player. Engram also is a healthy receiver on a team devoid of them at the moment. Shepard and Slayton are out, Golladay is questionable, and Collin Johson is just really tall. Engram figures to get another healthy workload in the offense, even if we can’t trust him to catch or hold onto the ball.

#TagsStrong

I planned on leading off with a joke about how Scott’s chances to beat me twice in a row were as small as the hands of the sitting president the last time he prevailed. Even such a stunningly hilarious joke is not the same today. The fantasy football community lost a friend and the industry lost a titan in Mike Tagliere. I emulated him as much as I could as a content creator, husband, and father. He was great at all of it. He was beloved by all of us who share the same obsession with this incredible game.

If you create fantasy football content today, you can thank Tags. I doubt I would be even a sliver of the host I am on Chalk Blocked without emulating his wit, professionalism, and knowledge. He belongs on our Mount Rushmore. “Heroes get remembered. Legends never die.” Live on in paradise and rest easy, Tags. We will cherish your family and give them whatever they need on this earth. We owe that to you after what you gave us while you were here.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Justin Fields – Chicago Bears – $5,200

It is a little risky to play a rookie quarterback in his debut, but this is no ordinary rookie. I predicted Fields to be Offensive Rookie of the Year and that campaign starts this Sunday. If the scoring in this game pops off, we could see that 300-yard passing and 100-yard rushing talent that the young Buckeye possesses. He’s also never going to be a better value again.

RB – Austin Ekeler – LA Chargers – $7,200

Full disclosure: I know that we’re matching both running backs this week. We shared lineups earlier today and we hold a lot of the same opinions. Ekeler is primed to be a major contributor in a shootout game with the Chiefs. He scored 22.5 points last week without a touchdown, for goodness sake!

RB – DeAndre Swift – Detroit Lions – $5,800

Nimble and I are both super high on Swift this week against the Ravens. His salary is much too low to not play him with his PPR volume. He also has the upside you want in multipliers and tournaments.

WR – Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills – $7,600

Is it just me or is nobody talking about Diggs this season? I guess since he only scored a pedestrian 16 points in each of the first two games, we’ve filed him away for a rainy day. With how poorly the Washington cornerbacks have played, Josh Allen will likely be peppering the elite Terrapin with targets on Sunday. I’m ready for his reminder game.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $6,800

Is it just me or is everyone talking about Kupp this season? The WR1 in fantasy football so far has apparently fused his brain with Matthew Stafford’s and they are now an unstoppable force. The Bucs defense is exploitable through the air, especially from the slot. Kupp is going to surf an avalanche of targets in this game.

WR – Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,100

I have Godwin rostered everywhere this week in DFS. I feel so strongly about this play that I think I’ll name my favorite Sea Monkey “Chris.” Don’t let Chris down this week, okay Chris?

TE – Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons – $4,900

I’m such a homer. I painted myself into the Pitts corner, climbed up the tallest ladder, and shouted through a megaphone that he was going to produce elite numbers from the jump. I guess a watched pot never boils, so I’ll just plug him into every lineup until the moment arrives. Then, we can party.

FLEX – Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears – $4,300

Starting Sunday, the world will fall in love with this stack. I just picture the Browns pass rush flushing Fields from the pocket, where he buys an extra second for the speedy kid from Tulane to get absolutely wide open down the field. Touchdown Bears! Andy Dalton’s cheeks redden to the point where his face, hair, and Chicago “C” are monochromatic.

DST – Cincinnati Bengals – $2,100

I don’t know. They haven’t been that bad. The defensive line has an advantage over the Steelers’ offensive line. Pressure on Big Ben, no Diontae to force-feed. JuJu runs the same five-yard hitch every play and Claypool is not yet an alpha. This could be great, or it could be a nothing burger.

Celebrating Mike Tagliere

Fantasy Football has taken a hit today. Mike Tagliere, long-time Fantasy Pros fantasy football writer, podcaster, grinder passed away today after a battle with COVID-19. The fantasy community loved Mike. He was smart and thoughtful and he loved football. He worked like a man possessed each week breaking down all the matchups, creating a dossier outlining all the games. It was just tremendous, just like he was.

I’m new to the world of fantasy football content producing, but I’ve been a fan of Mike’s for years and even credited him as one of my inspirations in my very first blog post ever two years ago. I am grateful that I got to enjoy Tags doing what he enjoyed and won’t soon forget the sound of his voice breaking down a slate. This week is for you Tags. We love you and will miss you brother.

QB – Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens – $7,800

Lamar Jackson has the highest projected Week 3 ceiling out of any quarterback according to RuntheSims.com. The Ravens quarterback is averaging over 28 DraftKings points per game, rushing for close to 200 yards and passing for over 440 in the first two weeks. Lamar’s defense is down most of its starting defensive front, which means this game has the potential to be a high-scoring shootout. Lamar has a solid floor and TONS of ceiling. Bo is gonna be cursing him all day long. 

RB – Austin Ekeler – LA Chargers– $7,200  

Austin Ekeler has a juicy matchup in Week 3. He’s facing the 29th ranked Kansas City Chiefs defense that gives up 31.6 points to running backs per game. Vegas has this game slated for a 54.5 point shootout. After being targeted zero times in Week 1, Ekeler rebounded with nine receptions for 61 yards in Week 2. I expect Ekeler to continue to see both rushing and pass-catching volume against the Chiefs. Ekeler has yet to see the end zone this season, but that will change this week, as he’s a prime candidate to score at least once.

RB – D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions – $5,800

D’Andre Swift is averaging over 18 DraftKings points per game this season after scoring over 20 DraftKings points only three times last year. This week he has a chance to make it two out of his last three with a strong performance against a weakened Ravens squad. His PPR upside provides a strong floor with a high ceiling. The Ravens are down a defensive line, which should aid Swift around the goal line. The smart money is on Swift this week. 

WR – Mecole Hardman – Kansas City Chiefs – $3,900

The Vegas OVER/UNDER is 54.5 points. Mecole hasn’t had a breakout performance, but he’s been targeted 11 times, second behind only Tyreek Hill for wide receivers. I expect the LA Chargers to spend their time bracketing Hill, leaving Mecole in single coverage. His value is hard to ignore this week priced below $4,000. He’s a sneaky Cash play that I hope hits big. 

WR – Tyler Lockett  – Seattle Seahawks – $7,400

Tyler Lockett has been DraftKings gold the first two weeks of the season!! This week, he’s only priced up $200, which makes him a tremendous upside play. What’s even better is that he’s currently only being rostered on 9.6% of GPP builds according to OccupyFantasy.com. Lockett and Metcalf are facing a Minnesota Vikings defense that has given up 107 fantasy points to wide receivers through the first two weeks.

WR – Cooper Kupp – LA Rams – $6,800

Cooper Kupp is the number one scoring wide receiver on DraftKings, just like we all predicted. This week he is only priced up $800 and it’s completely crazy that he’s priced under $7,500. This week he faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ secondary that has given up 110 fantasy points to wide receivers through two weeks. Kupp is a lock for 20 points this week, which makes him my number one Cash play. 

TE – T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions – $5,200

T.J. Hockenson is a monster! He’s second in targets to only Darren Waller and is averaging over 23 DraftKings points per game. This week he faces a depleted Ravens defense that will be missing most of its starting front and a few linebackers. Huge advantage for Hockenson and Jared Goff. I expect Hockenson to score 20 plus points this week and come close to hitting the 4x.

WR – K.J. Osborn – Minnesota Vikings – $3,500

K.J. Osborn has been a revelation through the first two games of the NFL season. He is currently the WR2 on the Minnesota Vikings, outproducing second-year star Justin Jefferson in the process. I don’t expect this trend to continue all season, but Osborn is a great value given the Vikings need to pass the football and the other dynamic weapons creating mismatches. He’s a great low-price play in Cash this week. 

DST – Cincinnati Bengals  – $2,100

Paying down for defense is my Cash and GPP strategy all season. Big Ben has not looked himself this season and without his best weapon in Diontae Johnson missing this week due to a knee injury, I’m rolling the dice this week that the Bengals can get home and sack Big Ben a few times, possibly turning him over.  

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