Nimble w/Numbers

Bulletin Board Material

What would you tell someone if they approached you on the street and asked, “What motivates you?” Is it a who or a what? If it’s a who, why? I know some people who seem to lack any motivation to improve their lot in life, but like tapping on the walls of a fish tank or poking a sleeping bear with a stick, there has to be some motivation in there somewhere.

As a husband and father, it’s pretty easy to answer that question. My wife and daughter are the two most important beings in my life. Although I’ll likely struggle to ever be the husband or father that Mike Tagliere was (and made look so easy), they drive me to be the best whatever I want to be.

Ever the typical young newlyweds, Kristina and I dreamed about traveling and adventuring through our twenties before settling down to maybe have children. Surprise! Addison came along right at the onset of our journey. It was difficult. We were two working professionals with nary the disposable income or shared time off.

When Addison was nearing the end of her first grade year, we were thinking it was time to finally take a trip with her. Not just the little day or weekend outings in the car, we were going to go somewhere that required a plane or a boat. We saved up and booked a cruise to Ensenada, Mexico. My mother-in-law was coming too, with an adjacent suite to share with Addison when Kristina and I were on adults-only adventures. Addison got a passport; she was going to visit another country before she reached second grade. What a story she could tell the class when school started in August 2020…

For the last two years, our now third grader has gone through the familiar carousel of remote learning, mask mandates, and lockdowns. Just as it has negatively affected the mental health of many, our children have become accustomed to all the disappointment. The cruise was cancelled and refunded. Subsequent inquiries into future trips were scuttled because of travel restrictions. The inability to do normal, fun things that kids need to find joy in the world has jaded Addison to a degree. She’s a smart kid; she understands why things are the way they are. She also holds some resentment toward the world, including her parents, for not providing her as much of the fun that normal childhood should bring.

We were shuffling through Addison’s school folder last night and found an assignment where the students were asked about some of their favorite things. Our child waxed poetic of her love for animals and video games, but the one that hit us like a ton of bricks was the one about her “favorite vacation.” Our eight-year-old wrote in pencil, “I have never been on a vacation” with a sad face at the end. Kristina and I both replicated the face to one another. It hurt. The little cartoon beach with waves, sand, and an umbrella had stirred up that resentment in our little girl. She didn’t know we were going to see this. Now, we’re not going to ignore it.

Of course, NFL teams have “bulletin board material.” If your opponent is talking trash about you before the game, it’s even more motivation to prove them wrong and earn a sweeter victory. The last two years have us all downtrodden and starving for fun and adventure.

A nice DFS payout will go right into booking our first real family vacation. With that fire in my belly to put a smile on my little girl’s face, I will succeed. If you join me, you will too!

Week 6 DFS Cash Plays

I have a slightly different view from the consensus on how to build winning cash lineups. Instead of focusing on players with a “high floor,” I instead focus on their expected workload. These players often have that safe floor as a result of the VOLUME of opportunities, but they also have a higher likelihood of returning the 3x+ value that most cash games require to end the day above the pay line. A smart cash player has to always consider ceiling as a part of the equation, just maybe weighted lighter than if building for a GPP. I ask myself the same question every time: Does this player’s expected volume of opportunities (EVO) have high odds of accomplishing 3 points per salary dollar, divided by 1,000 (x=3[y/1000]).

KEY INGREDIENT*** — SECRET INGREDIENT*

Quarterbacks

PATRICK MAHOMES: @ WASHINGTON ($8,300)

It’s easy to forget how much of a fantasy cheat code Mahomes is after a disappointing couple of games for him and the Chiefs. After two tough matchups, a preseason look at the schedule might have looked like a third was on the horizon. Not so, as the Washington defense has been a massive disappointment. This figures to be a game with plenty of big upside for both sides.

KYLER MURRAY: @ CLEVELAND ($7,900)

Every single week. Don’t you dare move Kyler Murray out of consideration for the best quarterback for cash games. He is completely matchup-proof, except for the rare divisional clunker like last week. We also just watched Justin Herbert put up a monster, slate-breaking game against this Cleveland defense.

JUSTIN HERBERT: @ BALTIMORE ($7,300)

Speak of the devil. Herbie is en fuego. His 45.8 DK points last week were the golden ticket to DFS winnings. He is positioned to double down on that performance against a tattered Ravens secondary. Herbert is averaging more than 40 passing attempts per game and leads the NFL in completions down the field outside the numbers.

MATTHEW STAFFORD: @ NY GIANTS ($6,700)

Stafford priced under $7k this week is an eyebrow-raising value, especially against a pathetic, hapless Giants team. The only mitigating factor to Stafford’s volume is how early the Rams might build an insurmountable lead, where the running game will get to work on one of the league’s worst run defenses to kill the clock.

TAYLOR HEINICKE: VS KANSAS CITY ($5,800)***

Heinicke resembles Jalen Hurts more than you think. He looks terrible as a real life quarterback, with countless bonehead decisions and poor throws every game. Every week, however, he seems to put up numbers that belie his level of play. His matchup is much more favorable against Kansas City than last week’s dud against New Orleans. I will be locking Heinicke into a bunch of cash lineups.

MAC JONES: VS DALLAS ($5,200)

Toward the bottom of the quarterback fish tank swims the Alabama rookie, who has been remarkably consistent so far this season. The Patriots have flipped the script on their neutral script scheme from last season, now passing at a very high percentage of plays. Dallas has formed a surprising pass funnel, with a very opportunistic group of ball hawks on the back end. The stats will bear out a value in the end.

Running Backs

AUSTIN EKELER: @ BALTIMORE ($7,900)

Ekeler is an absolute PPR stud. He is as close to a CMC as we will see until the Panthers’ star returns to full health. With how amazingly the Chargers are rolling on offense, there is absolutely no reason to hesitate on this spend up.

EZEKIEL ELLIOTT: @ NEW ENGLAND ($7,100)

Back to the top of the cash game board goes Zeke, whom I have had locked in as a top-5 running back since the preseason. There are very few players who are near locks to score a touchdown in every single game. New England isn’t a slouch against the run, but the Cowboys haven’t really been bothered by good defenses anyway.

JOE MIXON: @ DETROIT ($6,400)

The much-maligned Mixon is still an incredibly talented running back, who showed no impedance from his ankle sprain last week. Detroit is abysmal against opposing running backs. Depending on his popularity, it’s very possible I’ll be using a lot of Mixon across all formats this week.

DEANDRE SWIFT: VS CINCINNATI ($6,300)

I made a vow to play Swift “no matter what” if he was healthy and under $7k. He hasn’t cracked that number since Week 2 against Green Bay. After his third 20+ point performance this season, his salary only jumped $200. Keep on chugging!

DARRELL HENDERSON JR: @ NY GIANTS ($6,000)***

Have you heard me say how bad the Giants defense is? Pull up a chair and I’ll keep going on like a broken record. I love how Henderson is only $100 more than last week, where he put up another very solid performance. The Giants won’t even stand a chance.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS: VS LAS VEGAS ($5,000)

Melvin Gordon is like the Tinman in need of some oil for his joints. The 50/50 split to this point cannot be sustained, especially since Gordon is falling apart and the stud rookie is showcasing his superior ability on every snap. This is the week where we see a nice bump in opportunities for Williams against a Charmin-soft Raiders team.

KHALIL HERBERT*: VS GREEN BAY ($4,600)

If you are a consumer of the BallBlast Wire waiver show with Sam Wagman and I, you’ll know I recommended Herbert over Damien Williams as a FAAB priority once David Montgomery was injured. I predicted that he would get more carries than Williams in Week 5…and he did. Now, Williams is COVID-positive and unlikely to suit up. Khalil “11 Toes” Herbert is a free square this week.

Wide Receivers

DAVANTE ADAMS: @ CHICAGO ($9,000)

I told you all to sell the farm and put Davante in every lineup last week and I hope you weren’t too stubborn. The Packers star receiver went absolutely thermonuclear against the Bengals, to the tune of 40.6 DK points. It would be silly to expect another 40-burger, but the likelihood of 27-plus to pay the bills this week is extremely high.

COOPER KUPP: @ NY GIANTS ($7,900)

Shhh! While you were sleeping, we had a quiet performance for Kupp while Bobby Trees emerged from the thicket. A stable salary from last week is a lullaby for DFS players, who shouldn’t scoff at the 7/10/92 performance last Thursday night. Have you heard how bad the Giants are on defense?

DEANDRE HOPKINS: @ CLEVELAND ($7,800)

Last week was a reassurance that Nuk’s ribs are feeling much better. He is battling an illness this week, but if he’s ready to go for Sunday, he will be an incredible leverage receiver around more chalky options for GPP. For cash, he’s as consistent as any wideout in NFL history. Lock him in.

TERRY MCLAURIN: VS KANSAS CITY ($7,100)

It’s really too bad that Heinicke was so terrible last week in New Orleans. Terry was enjoying incredible volume every game. The Chiefs have been a huge letdown on defense this season, contributing very poor play that has led to their three losses. I have no doubt that this will be the highest score on the slate. McLaurin should be a huge part of that.

ROBERT WOODS: @ NY GIANTS ($6,100)

The target dispersal from Stafford to these Rams receivers has been very concentrated to the top two guys, especially last week. Woods was schemed into 14 targets and caught 12 of them for 150 yards. Nobody was even mad that he didn’t find the end zone. I believe he will check that box this week against the lowly Giants in New Jersey. Their defense is terrible.

BRANDIN COOKS: @INDIANAPOLIS ($5,800)***

Apparently, it only takes one bad week to completely forget about Cooks again. His salary plummeted back below $6k again, which means you can safely lock him into your cash lineups. Indy isn’t as great on defense as I thought they would be, especially against the wide receiver position.

KADARIUS TONEY: VS LA RAMS ($5,600)

Help! I’ve obviously been kidnapped. I just typed out a name that I chided all offseason as an obvious bust in the making. I wholeheartedly admit that I was wrong about the Florida rookie. He has been electric in the two games he has been given volume. I don’t have any reason to expect that to stall, even if Shepard and Slayton come back.

JAKOBI MEYERS: VS DALLAS ($5,400)

Another guy makes the list that normally induces my snoring reflex. Yes, I like to joke that Meyers carries an Epi-Pen in case he gets too close to the end zone. He actually came only a yard short of his first career touchdown last week. His volume is as steady as it gets in this surprisingly pass-heavy Patriots attack. The price is also perfect against a suspect Cowboys secondary.

HUNTER RENFROW: @ DENVER ($4,900)

Eight targets per game pays the bills for most players at $6k on DK. We’re getting that with Renfrow for pennies on the dollar. Denver is very tough on outside receivers, but not quite as great against the slot. If Derek Carr wants to break out of this completely-predictable slump, he better find his diminutive slot receiver with the strong clutch gene.

AMON-RA ST BROWN: VS CINCINNATI ($4,200)

Like with Renfrow, eight targets per game pays the bills. The rookie from Southern Cal has hit that number in consecutive weeks. Plus, his main competition for targets on the outside, Quintez Cephus, has been lost for the remainder of the season from a broken clavicle. If you remember, the Bengals were the team that allowed 40 DK points to Davante Adams last week.

Tight Ends

TRAVIS KELCE: @ WASHINGTON ($7,000)***

Don’t get cute at the tight end position. A valuable lesson in DFS is the “pony-up or punt” strategy at tight end. As in, don’t try to guess which mid-price guy will have the best performance. Someone down at the bottom is just as likely to be the breakout tight end, and the top guys will nearly always produce. If this game shoots out, Kelce’s puzzling drop in salary this week will be met with his best points-per-dollar performance of the year.

DARREN WALLER: @ DENVER ($6,600)

If you’re insane, you’ll save the $400 dollars and eschew Kelce for Waller in a much tougher matchup. He’s still a great play, but I’d be stunned if his value exceeds Kelce’s this week. Even then, his volume is more than enough to roster with confidence.

MARK ANDREWS: VS LA CHARGERS ($5,200)

Holy smokes! I had to find my glasses to make sure I wasn’t losing my mind. Andrews scored 44.7 DK points last week, faces a defense that is statistically worse than the Colts versus the position, and his salary was reduced by $300?! This twilight zone moment is brought to you by DraftKings. If there’s one sure chalk bet, I’d place it on Andrews. Luckily, you don’t have to weight a player’s popularity heavily at all in cash games.

NOAH FANT: VS LAS VEGAS ($4,800)

Fant has not received very consistent volume this season. So why am I recommending him as a play this week? The Raiders are a soft team who lost their fearless leader to his own stupid bigotry and hubris. I think Denver will steamroll Vegas this week, getting back to the Week 4 agenda where Fant was targeted 10 times.

HUNTER HENRY: VS DALLAS ($3,900)

Try as I may, I can’t figure out why the Patriots are running more deep routes with Henry than their athletic freak on the other side, Jonnu Smith. Even though they have both been involved, the quality looks have gone Henry’s way. He has looked great so far and looks to keep it rolling against a Cowboys team that has struggled to slow opposing tight ends down.

RICKY SEALS-JONES: VS KANSAS CITY ($3,000)

Y’all laughed at me. You scoffed at my recommendation to plug Seals-Jones in as an extreme value pick with upside. He nearly hit a 4x value last week without the benefit of a touchdown. Logan Thomas isn’t walking through that door this week against the generous Chiefs defense. RSJ is still down at $3k, so he’s virtually the same great value piece in a high total game.

All Square

The full-on game stack I deployed last week wasn’t successful, but it was still enough to defeat Scott. Our season series is now all square at two wins apiece. I also was surgical with my 15 lineups and won our menage a trois highest score contest over Scott and his Fantasy Millionaires compadre, Mike Collins. They tried a shotgun approach with hundreds of unique lineups. Much like my hot sauce, it’s quality over quantity. I have this weekend off of work, so I’ll have time to conjure more quality lineups. My “Clash” lineup is one I built on Monday night, as soon as the Week 5 pricing was released. I hope Scott likes it.

Bo’s Lineup

QB – Daniel Jones – New York Giants – $6,000

Danny Dimes looks about as Konami Code as I do when I’m bellied up to a heaping plate of nachos, but he’s apparently really athletic. Do I think he will commit multiple turnovers, dooming the Giants to a 20-point shellacking by the Cowboys? Yes. It still doesn’t rule out his ability to put up 30 points on this bend-don’t-break defense.

RB – Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans – $9,000

Since I’m not in a large-field tournament, I’m locking in an easy 30-plus points from King Henry. Regardless of price and opponent, Henry will see enough rushing and receiving volume to give me a leg up. Did I mention they play the Jaguars?

RB – Saquon Barkley – New York Giants – $7,300

The Cowboys haven’t been bad at all at defending the run, but they are surrendering a ton of receptions to the running back position. I know Jason Garrett like the back of my hand. He will try to screen Dallas to death. Saquon also scored a long touchdown as a wide receiver last week. I like that.

WR – CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys – $6,200

All has been quiet on the Lamb front the last couple of weeks. He has been discounted to a laughable salary now. His dropoff wasn’t performance-based, but rather the flow of the games. The Giants have nobody outside of James Bradberry that can hang with Lamb (and that’s a stretch).

WR – Kenny Golladay – New York Giants – $5,900

The injuries to Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard have opened the door for Golladay to finally step up and play well. He was explosive down the field last week against the Saints. The Cowboys are pretty good at keeping receivers in front of them but have been gouged all season for big plays, nonetheless.

WR – Laviska Shenault Jr – Jacksonville Jaguars – $4,800

The theme of DFS this season seems to be finding the beneficiaries to other players’ injuries. His coach might be a blithering idiot, but Shenault saw his aDOT jump dramatically in DJ Chark’s absence. His move to the outside is a welcome sight this week, where the Titans are the worst in the NFL.

TE – Ricky Seals-Jones – Washington Football Team – $2,500

You can’t afford Darren Waller every week. I decided to slip in another starter-due-to-injury here because he is a terrible blocker. Seals-Jones ran a lot of routes last week, even though it was for cardio. I just need him to do something to justify punting the position to the deepest depths of the Dead Sea.

FLEX – James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,000

No doubt about it, I’m prepared for JRob to hurt me again this week. Since I don’t expect much defense to be played between the Jags and Titans, JRob should get a ton of work in this offense. If not, Urban Meyer will be getting fitted for a sport coat to prepare for another set of job interviews. He’s a grinder.

DST – Washington Football Team – $2,300

The league’s most disappointing defense isn’t all bad. They do have a date with a classic beauty for DFS defenses, Jameis Winston. I’m hoping for a low-scoring brawl, but I’ll settle for some sacks and a pick-six.

Kissing Your Sister

After four weeks of fighting it out in “The Clash of the Beards and Bellies” Bo and I are all tied up at 2-2. The expression, “A tie is like kissing your sister” was coined in 1953 by then Navy Football Coach Eddie Erdelatz to describe a scoreless tie between Navy and Duke. I’m not sure the exact research methods that Coach Eddie used to test and develop his “Sister Kissing Theory” but the point still stands, no one really enjoys a tie. Especially not Bo, who gave me the beat down all last half of the season. He must be distraught. All that hard work through the first month of the NFL season and he’s tied, left kissing this fat toad of a sister. Pucker up, King of Spice.

Scott’s Lineup

QB – Daniel Jones – New York Giants – $6,000

Daniel Jones is a good fantasy football player. This is not to be confused with him being a good professional football player, which he is not, yet. Currently, Jones is the 3rd highest rushing quarterback behind only Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. The Vegas sportsbooks pegged this matchup at the highest-scoring game of the week, which means garbage time points-o-plenty for Jones and hopefully Saquon.

RB – Saquon Barkley – New York Giants – $7,300  

Saquon Barkley is back!! I know he’s been back all season, but last week was the first time he was viable in DFS. This week Saquon and the New York Giants are in Dallas, facing Dak and one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL. If the Giants have any chance in this game it will be riding Saquon like the show pony he was drafted to be. Time to hitch up your wagons and let Saquon take you home.

RB – Leonard Fournette – Tampa Buccaneers – $5,200

Ronald Jones is dust (obvi) and “Playoff Lenny” is here to stay. This is what we learned in Week 5. The backfield is Fournette’s and to him go the Week 5 DFS spoils. And oh, do we have spoils. The Miami Dolphins rank 30th against the running back, giving up over 30 fantasy points per game to the position. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are over 10 point favorites, which could mean Fournette could be in for plenty of work on Sunday. I love the value he provides in Cash this week.

WR – Terry McLaurin – Washington Football Team – $7,400

“Scary” Terry McLaurin might be the only healthy skill position player the Washington football team has available on their roster come Sunday afternoon. Dyami Brown and Logan Thomas are both out for Week 5, Curtis Samuel was limited all week in practice and Antonio Gibson popped up on the injury report with a shin issue on Friday. In Washington’s two victory’s this season, McLaurin has 27 targets. In the two losses, he only has 11 combined targets for eight receptions. If Washington wants to win the game, they will be peppering their best player with targets all day long.

WR – Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – $7,100

Deebo Samuel is a GROWN ASS MAN. We all knew this, but his incredibly hot start to the 2021 season is a glaring reminder of how dominant he can be on a football field. Deebo is currently 4th in the NFL with 43 targets. This Week the San Francisco 49ers face Kyler Murray and the high-scoring Arizona Cardinals. If the 49ers are going to win a shootout, Deebo is gonna have to ball out once again. No George Kittle means that the volume should be there to do some damage in this matchup.

WR – Jaylen Waddle  – Miami Dolphins – $4,900

Jaylen Waddle was played well, leading the Dolphins in receptions with 25 on 31 targets, for an 81% catch rate. Waddle is yet to truly break out this season, but this game looks to be his coming-out party. The Dolphins are double-digit dogs in their matchup with the Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10.5) which means that Jacoby Brissett will most likely be dropping back and sliding it all afternoon. I expect Waddle to score in this game and bring home the win against Bo.

TE – Noah Fant – Denver Broncos – $4,800

Noah Fant currently ranks 4th among active tight ends with 27 targets and is coming off his best game of the season last week, scoring 16.6 against the Baltimore Ravens. This week the Broncos are facing a Steeler defense that has done pretty well against the position so far only surrendering 10 points per game. The Steelers did give up 5 receptions to Darren Waller for 65 yards in their

Flex – Laviska Shenault – Jacksonville Jaguars – $4,800

Last week the Jacksonville Jaguars lost starting wide receiver D.J. Chark for what looks like the remainder of the season. Laviska Shenault stepped up last week, catching six of his seven targets for 99 yards. This week the Jags and rookie Trevor Lawrence square off against the worst secondary in the NFL, who have already given up eight touchdowns and 944 receiving yards to wide receivers. I’m expecting a huge game from Laviska this week.

DST – Philadelphia Eagles  – $2,200

Paying down for defense is my Cash and GPP strategy all season. The Eagles were lit up last week by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. This week they are the min price on DraftKings. Wheels up.