By Scott Simpson
Welcome to NFL Week 5! Each week Nimble GPP will bring you the plays to get you paid for DraftKings GPP. Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value” plays. The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup.
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High Priced – Quarterback
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – $8,000
Kyler Murray has the highest projected Week 5 ceiling out of any quarterback according to RuntheSims.com. Throwing to DeAndre Hopkins and the re-emergence of A.J. Green have helped to keep Murray a top DraftKings quarterback play each week. Murray has 12 total touchdowns through four weeks and is facing a San Francisco 49ers defense that ranks 25th against the quarterback, giving up over 25 points per game to the position. Once again Murray is set for a huge offensive game. The million-dollar question is who to stack him with this week.
Mid-Range – Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – $6,900
Dak Prescott faces the New York Giants in Week 5. Sunday will be 365 days since the leg injury that caused him to miss most of the 2020 season. Dak has been playing well, racking up 10 touchdowns to only one interception. Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb have the ability to carry Dak to a QB1 performance this week against a Giants’ secondary that wasn’t tested last week against the Saints. I expect the Cowboys to win in a high-scoring game, Dak leading the way through the air, and also picking up a rushing touchdown.
Value – Quarterback
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers – $5,700
Despite Kyle Shanahan’s best efforts, Trey Lance gets his first professional start this week against the 4-0 Arizona Cardinals. According to RunTheSims.com, Lance has the top point per dollar value on the slate. The upside is massive and so will his rostership. He’s currently the top rostered quarterback at 11%. The field is betting on Lance, which means if he’s your quarterback in Mass Multi-Entry GPP tournaments, you will need to diversify your stacking options to differentiate your lineups from the chalk.
High Priced – Running Back
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints – $8,600
Alvin Kamara currently ranks 20th in running back targets with 14. I expect that to change, and in a big way after this week’s matchup with the Washington Football Team. Washington has already given up the five receiving touchdowns to running backs through the first four weeks. Their linebackers are young and have not played great so far. This is great news for Kamara, who has seen plenty of carries, but not as many targets so far this season. Kamara has two touchdown upside this week and I predict he gets it down rushing and through the air as well.
Mid-Range – Running Back
D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions – $6,100
D’Andre Swift underperformed last week, only scoring 8.9 DraftKings points. This week he faces the Minnesota Vikings, who rank 20th against running backs. The Vikings have been haven’t been able to stop pass catches out of the backfield through four games, allowing a 91% pass-catching rate to running backs. Swift currently ranks 2nd in running back targets with 29. The stage is set for a strong performance from Swift. Now all we need is Detroit to be losing in the second half and we’ll have our game script
Value – Running Back
Damien Harris, New England Patriots – $5,500
Damien Harris rushed for -4 yards in Week 4. In his defense, he was facing the World Champion Tampa Bay Bucs and their top-rated rush defense. This week Harris finds himself with a much easier matchup against a Houston Texans team that gives up 5 yards per carry and has NO OFFENSE to speak of. Damien Harris should see closer to the 23 touches he saw in a run-heavy Week 1 game plan that saw him rush for 100 yards. New England running backs are always a gamble, this time though you just might hit the nuts.
High Priced – Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings – $7,700
After a slow start, Justin Jefferson has a touchdown in his last three games for the Minnesota Vikings. This week Jefferson has PFF’s best cornerback matchup, the Vikings are favored by 7.5 points, and Dalvin Cook has a high ankle sprain. One of Kirk Cousins’s wide receivers will be going off this week and my money is on Jefferson in GPPs. According to OccupyFantasy.com, Jefferson is currently be rostered in less than 10% of DraftKings Main Slate contents, which is music to my ears.
Mid-Range – Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – $6,200
CeeDee Lamb had a down week against the Panthers, only mustering 3.3 DraftKings points. Fast forward to this week and the Cowboys face NFL East Divison rivals the New York Giants in Dallas. The Cowboys are favored by a touchdown and have the highest implied point total on the slate as well. Both Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott were limited in practice this week, recovering from injuries. They are both set to play, but their usage will be limited (last week Cooper had a 49% snap rate) which should boost the odds that CeeDee Lamb breaks out.
Value – Wide Receiver
Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars – $4,800
Last week the Jacksonville Jaguars lost starting wide receiver D.J. Chark for what looks like the remainder of the season. Laviska Shenault stepped up last week, catching six of his seven targets for 99 yards. This week the Jags and rookie Trevor Lawrence square off against the worst secondary in the NFL, who have already given up eight touchdowns and 944 receiving yards to wide receivers. I’m expecting a huge game from Laviska this week.
Mid-Range – Tight End
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins – $4,200
The Miami Dolphins are way over their heads this week against the Tompa Bay Bucs. Jacoby Brissett might drop back 50 times to pass, which means that there will be plenty of targets to go around for the Miami pass catchers. Gesicki ranks sixth in the league with 26 targets through four games and could see upwards of ten targets on Sunday.
Value – Tight End
Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team – $2,500
With Logan Thomas out, the next man up is Ricky Seals-Jones. He only has one catch so far on the season, but it was for a touchdown. That’s what you are chasing here as well, just hoping that your punt touchdown cashes.