Nimble w/Numbers
Vol.1 Issue 11
12/21/2019
We’ve all heard the phrase, “Put your money where you mouth is.” It’s a phrase that originated in the 1930’s as a call to support what you cared about with your money or your time. Makes sense. But given the American bent towards individualism, there’s no surprise that is has since been appropriated by the masses as a friendlier way to tell someone to “put up or shut up.” When you actually break the phrase down, it really has an ingenious way of showcasing the human desire to be both right (ego) and also to win (survive). If you listen hard and long enough on Sunday mornings, you can faintly make out its Tell Tale Heart, capriciously beating within the dystopian Id that is the sports gambling community. If you would indulge me a brief story to help me illustrate my point. A while back my NY Giants loving brother-in-law believed so strongly that that his G-men would beat Ray Lewis and the Ravens in Super Bowl 35 that he was was willing to financially back his blusterous claim. When push came to shove, I challenged his resolve and said, “Why don’t you put your money where your mouth is.” He was powerless to resist the challenge and retorted, “I’ll bet you $20 the Giants win the Super Bowl.” After making the ominous wager, he boasted again, “I would bet anyone!” Having realized that he had not quite learned his lesson, I did what every great brother-in-law would have done and I called a few of my friends into the room to get in on the action as well. In total, he lost $60 that day. LOL! He may have foolishly backed an obvious loser, but he stood by what be believed in and at least he was man enough to put his money where his mouth was.
I say all of this because after spending the last few months listening/watching all the weekly DFS tout sights’ podcasts, I find it a little disingenuous to hear DFS after DFS analyst tell us that they will, “have quite a bit of Saquon today” or “Derrick Henry is all over my lineup” or “Matt Ryan will be one of my top QB/WR stacks.” WTF does that mean? In the end they have covered all their bases, but not truly taken a stand. There is no quantification. What I have come to realize is that I could care less about who an analyst touts on their Youtube channel (while stuffing pizza down their throat) and instead I want to know who actually makes it into their weekly DFS lineups. Don’t tell me that you are “going to be getting a shit ton of Julio today”, I want to see your receipts! What are your player percentages? Show me the percentages!!!!
After reflecting on my own process, I have decided to write my weekly DFS article after I have entered all of my DFS line-ups. Now, I will be able to accurately track who I am playing each week and more importantly, put my money where my mouth is with my DFS advice. Here are my player percentages for both the Saturday and Sunday main slates. My receipts.
QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups
QB | Russell Wilson $8,300 | Drew Brees $8,200 | Matt Ryan $7,700 | Phillip Rivers $7,500 |
WR | Tyler Lockett $7,600 DK Metcalf $6,300 | Michael Thomas $9,000 *Jared Cook $6,600 | Julio Jones $8,000 *Austin Hooper $6,000 | Keenan Allen $6,800 Mike Williams $6,500 |
High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
| QB | Lamar Jackson $9,300 | Kyler Murray $7,700 | ||
RB | Christian McCaffery $10,800 | Saquon Barkley $8,800 | Zeke Elliot $8,700 | Chris Carson $8,200 |
WR | Michael Thomas $9,000 | Julio Jones $8,000 | Amari Cooper $7,700 | AJ Brown $7,200 |
TE | Zach Ertz $6,900 | Jared Cook $6,600 | Mark Andrews $6,500 | Darren Waller $6,500 |
DST | Pittsburgh Steelers $4,900 | Baltimore Ravens $4,500 |
Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
RB | Alvin Kamara $7,200 | Kenyan Drake $7,100 | Austin Ekeler $6,800 | Adrian Peterson $6,500 |
| RB | Devonta Freeman $6,200 | Kareem Hunt $6,100 | DeAndre Washington $5,600 | Latavius Murray $5,500 |
WR | DeVante Parker $6,900 | Keenan Allen $6,700 | Zach Pascal $6,600 | DJ Moore $6,600 |
| WR | Michael Gallop $6,500 | Terry McLaurin $6,500 | DK Metcalf $6,300 | Tyler Boyd $6,300 |
TE | Austin Hooper $6,000 | Noah Fant $5,900 | Jacob Hollister $5,700 | Greg Olsen $4,900 |
| DST | NO Saints $3,800 | Dallas Cowboys $3,600 |
I wish you all the best in week 16!
May the fantasy gods be with us all!
Nimble w/Numbers
Nimble w/Numbers 