RIP: Fantasy Football

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 10 

12/13/2019

Fantasy football is not dead. But it might feel that way for some of us as we mourn the loss of our fantasy football teams. I cried (on the inside, like a real man) after my fantasy football team “I’m at Full Chubb”, may it RIP, was eliminated 168.95 to 167.5 on Monday night. My team was stacked with Drew Brees, Nick Chubb, Chris Carson, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews. This genius left both Drew Brees (54.7) and Ryan Tannehill (41.1) on his bench and played Carson Wentz (29.4). This was just the latest heartbreak in a sad 15 year fantasy football career of near misses and never has been championships. While I was openly grieving and lamenting on Tuesday morning, my wife hit me with, “It’s enough to make you quit.” I retorted, “What did you say?” in my best Will Ferrell Anchorman voice. Followed by, “I will never quit! I want to win dammit!!” Cooler heads have prevailed and thankfully this years’ story hasn’t been fully written yet since I still have one more bullet in the re-draft chamber. I’ll fill you in next week and let you know if I am playing for $1400 or for $200. God help me if it’s not for $1400!

Great news for both of us is that fantasy football does not have to be over!! We can get right back on the horse and fire up some daily fantasy football (DFS) to help ease the pain of our loss. Hell, I’m getting the band back together this week and I am picking my re-draft team in DFS. You should too. Or maybe you are out for blood. Got knocked out in the first round by McCaffery, saddle up and ride him to DFS glory in some weirdo DFS style revenge fantasy. No more Patrick Laird after your team got eliminated. DFS is all Patrick Laird, all the time! The beauty of DFS is that you can be any team you want to be. 4 out of 5 (80%) fantasy football analysts recommended it to therapeutically treat “Fantasy Football Derangement Disorder” more commonly known as FFDD, which often occurs in the weeks, and for some months, after the fantasy football season has ended. Signs of this ever increasing disorder include stalking mock drafting lobbies, angry Tweeting the fantasy analyst blaming them for making you start Russell Wilson and muttering “JuJu fucking Smith Schuster” repeatedly under your breath at work. There is hope for you in DFS. Come and wash off your sorrow and be reborn into a whole new fantasy szn.

Winners!

I splurged in week 14 and played in the 1.65M GPP as well as my weekly smaller GPP tournament. Analyzing these winning lineups, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal lineup for week 15.

Winning lineup for Week 14 Fanduel $1.65M Sun NFL Dive ($9 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 14 Fanduel $125K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($1 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Michael Thomas & AJ Brown stacked with their respective QBs netted 65.5 and 59.64 . It is hard to win without picking the top stacks of the week.
  • Each had one of the two top RBs with Austin Ekeler at 29.3 and Aaron Jones at 28.2. They also selected strong mid-value RBs in Freeman, Henry and Gordon who didn’t sink their chances.
  • Game stack shootouts! The Emmanuel Sanders/Michael Thomas game stack was good for 55.5. We all saw that one coming.
  • The $300,000 winner leveraged cheaper WRs in Pascal ($6,100) and Terry McLaurin ($5,600) who ended up both finding the endzone.
  • Pittsburgh DEF (4.2x) continues do deliver fantasy value each week.

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Deshaun
Watson
$8,200
Jared
Goff
$7,800
Baker
Mayfield
$7,800
Baker
Mayfield
$7,700


WR
DeAndre
Hopkins
$8,600
Cooper
Kupp
$7,600

Robert
Woods
$7,500
Amari
Cooper
$7,700

Michael
Gallop
$6,800
Jarvis
Landry
$7,400

Odell
Beckham
$7,200

High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


RB
Dalvin
Cook
$8,500
Leonard
Fournette
$7,700
Todd
Gurley
$7,600
Raheem
Mostert
$7,500

WR
DeAndre
Hopkins
$8,600
Kenny
Golladay
$7,900
Julian
Edelman
$7,700
Julio
Jones
$7,500

TE
Travis
Kelce
$7,300
George
Kittle
$7,200
Zach
Ertz
$6,700
Darren
Waller
$6,200

DST
New
England
$5,000
San
Francisco
$4,500



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Ryan
Tannehill
$7,600
Tom
Brady
$7,600
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$7,300
Eli
Manning
$6,800

RB
Kareem
Hunt
$6,700
Joe
Mixon
$6,700
Phillip
Lindsay
$6,400
Kenyan
Drake
$6,200
RBMatt
Breida
$5,600
Duke
Johnson
$5,600
Patrick
Laird
$5,500
Chris
Thompson
$5,200

WR
Emmanuel
Sanders
$6,900
DeVante
Parker
$6,900
DJ
Moore
$6,800
Keenan
Allen
$6,800
WR Michael
Gallop
$6,800
Deebo
Samuel
6,500
DK
Metcalf
$6,300
Darius
Slayton
$6,300

WR
Terry
McLaurin
$6,000
Mecole
Hardman
$5,600
Danny
Amendola
$5,400
Chris
Conley
$5,100

TE
Noah
Fant
$5,700
Tyler
Higbee
$5,700
Dallas
Goedert
$5,700
Ian
Thomas
$5,300
DSTKansas
City
$3,900
Chicago
Bears
$3,800

Weekly Best Lineup –  RB/WR Balanced

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBBaker Mayfield$7,700
RBLeonard Fournette$7,700
RBTodd Gurley$7,600
WRDeAndre Hopkins$8,600
WRJarvis Landry$7,400
WRChris Conley$5,100
TEZach Ertz$6,700
FLXPatrick Laird$5,500
DEFLA Rams$3,600

Weekly Best Lineup – RB Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBEli Manning $6,800
RBDalvin Cook$8,500
RBLeonard Fournette$7,700
WRSterling Sheppard$5,900
WRKenny Golladay$7,900
WRTerry McLaurin$6,000
TEZach Ertz$6,700
FLXPatrick Laird$5,500
DEFNew England$5,000

I wish you all the best in week 15!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: