Show Me the Money!!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 9 

12/7/2019

Show me the money! Fantasy football is the best form of sports entertainment. Full Stop. Over the last 20 years fantasy football has grown into a billion dollar industry with around 60 million people participating in 2019. There are lots of compelling reasons people are playing fantasy football, but why the sudden explosion in popularity? I know that in my home re-draft league, the draft night spectacle is wild and well worth the price of admission. But it has to be more than bros loving football and getting together to bro out and talk copious amounts of trash while slamming beers and while trying to figure out why Sammy Watkins went in the third round. In reality billions of dollars are wagered/gambled each year on fantasy football. Cash is king. And until recently, I thought that most fantasy football participants all agreed that the ultimate purpose for playing fantasy football was to cash. That’s why I was shocked when I came across a poll that Jeff Ratcliffe from ProFootballFocus (PFF) conducted on whether or not you should pick players up off the wavier wire after you have been eliminated from the playoffs. 44% of the over 5,000 people who voted, indicated that they think “you should keep playing” even if you do not make the playoffs. It was stunning to me that such a large percentage of the fantasy football community clearly doesn’t that the losers in your fantasy league shouldn’t take precedence over the winners.

Why would people who have nothing to play for keep picking up players even after they have been eliminated from cashing? My own core belief on this issue is that once the playoffs have started and you are eliminated from contention, no longer having the opportunity to win cash, you should under no circumstances ever pick up a player off of the waiver wire. (If you play in a no money league. First, WTF? And second, this doesn’t apply to you). Firmly entrenched in my beliefs, I bravely dropped into the comments on Jeff’s thread and mixed it up with the 44% to try to find out where they had lost their way.

  • Draft Picks are on the line – I sucked all year and now I want to be rewarded
  • Avoid the Toilet Bowl punishment – I don’t want to wear a dress at Arby’s!
  • The Consolidation bracket made me do it – I can’t think for myself
  • I paid for this dammit! – Me > People who can actually win money
  • Over my dead body! – I cannot let anyone win because I am insecure.

I realize that lots of leagues incentivize continued participation once the playoffs start by tying draft picks to where you finish in the consolidation ladder or forcing the last place finisher in the league to some outrageous form of humiliation. Both of these ideas makes sense on the surface. Keep people involved in the league. Make the draft order interesting. Got it. But explain to me why it should trump (Sorry, I hate even correctly using that word now.) my ability to win cash. Your little last place tournament isn’t the reason we are here. It’s like going to a basketball court. Getting a team together. Waiting your turn. Getting on the court. Losing a game. And then teaming up with the team that lost the first game and kicking the winners off the court so that you losers can run a game. You lost. Take your ball and go home and then open up your computer or phone and play DFS.

Still others argue the old tried and true, if someone built the bridge, we have to walk on it fallacy. When did we lose the plot and decide that since ESPN and Yahoo have a consolidation bracket, it is mandatory everyone participate in it? I’m guessing that Jake is the kind of guy that never fails to fills out and mail in the warranty card for his electric toothbrush. Oh it is simple Jake. You can simply disregard the consolidation ladder because it isn’t required to win the championship.

And of course, there is the most American argument of them all. ME! It is all about me and my fun. I will be playing every single week and actively trying to disrupt people who actually can win money. Oh, its a dick move alright. Imagine people thinking that a game that they are eliminated from should somehow be negatively impacted by them. This is just gross. This guy would be kicked out of my league immediately. I respect the guys I play with in my home league too much to purposefully try to take food out of their mouths. If you play fantasy football to be a dick to your friends and family, your definitely helping me prove my point.

My decent into madness (Jeff’s Twitter thread) did not deter me. All of the reasons people provided made some sense. They weren’t outrageous, they just were short sighted and individualistic. They elevate participants who have lost the chance to win cash and placed them on par with those who still have skin in the game. This is where all of their arguments fall apart. Not all fantasy teams are created equally, and those that cannot compete for a championship shouldn’t hinder those who can once they have been eliminated. Here is my suggestion to all the good fantasy football participants who did not make the playoffs: Play DFS.

Winners!

Now let’s take a look at some of the DFS winners who took down some of the smaller GPP tournaments. Analyzing these winning lineups, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal lineup for week 14.

Winning lineup for Week 13 Fanduel $125K Sun NFL Dive ($1 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 13 Fanduel $50K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Both lineups featured a low priced QB/WR stack from a high scoring game.
  • Identify High Scoring Games! The winners featured a combined total of 9 Dolphins/Eagles players on their rosters. That was 50% of their rosters.
  • Miles Sanders was a stone cold steal last week priced at only $5,800.
  • The WR combo of Davante Adams and DeVante Parker netted 52.8 fantasy points.
  • Tyler Higbee played the pass funnel 32nd ranked Arizona Cardinals defense and went for 7 rec, for 107 yards and 1 TD.
  • Silver lining: Both winners swung and missed (Chubb – 8.4 and Agholor 7.6) and were still able to bring home the victory.
  • Cheap DEFs are still back! Bucs DEF scored 23 points for a 6.1x value and the Chiefs scored 22 points and had a value of 5.2x.

DFS Resources

Each week I peel back the current and share part of my process for constructing my DFS lineups. This week I am sharing the outstanding work of Jeff Ratcliffe and the great team at ProFootballFocus. Jeff’s weekly fantasy focus article contains insights and analysis that helps me identify key players to build my core lineup around. I highly recommend you add Jeff to your weekly DFS process as well!

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100
Sam
Darnold
$7,700
Baker
Mayfield
$7,600
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$7,400


WR
Davante
Adams
$8,000

Allen
Lazard
$5,600
Robby
Anderson
$6,400

Jamison
Crowder
$6,000
Jarvis
Landry
$7,300

Odell
Beckham
$7,800
DeVante
Parker
$7,200 

*Mike
Gesicki
$5,400

*QB/TE Stack

High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 

QBLamar
Jackson
$9,000
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100
Sam
Darnold
$7,700
Jameis
Winston
$7,700

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$11,000
Derrick
Henry
$9,100
Aaron
Jones
$7,800
Melvin
Gordon
$7,300

WR
Michael
Thomas
$8,000
Davante
Adams
$8,000
Chris
Godwin
$7,900
Kenny
Golladay
$7,400

TE
Austin
Hooper
$6,600
Mark
Andrews
$6,600
Jack
Doyle
$6,300
Darren
Waller
$6,200

DST
Green Bay
Packers
$5,000
Houston
Texans
$4,700



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Ryan
Tannehill
$7,300
Kyle
Allen
$7,100
Andy
Dalton
$7,000

RB
James
White
$6,000
Jamaal
Williams
$5,600
Patrick
Laird
$5,500
RBAlexander
Mattison
$5,100
Darwin
Thompson
$5,100
Bilal
Powell
$4,900

WR
D.J.
Moore
$7,100
Calvin
Ridley
$6,900
Keenan
Allen
$6,800

WR
James
Washington
$6,700
Tyler
Boyd
6,300
Zach
Pascal
$6,100

TE
Vance
McDonald
$5,800
Ryan
Griffin
$5,600 
Kyle
Rudolph
$4,800 
DSTSan
Francisco
$3,800
Tampa
Bay
$3,800

Weekly Best Lineup – WR Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBAaron Rodger$8,640
RBKareem Hunt$6,400
RBDerrick Henry$9,100
WRCalvin Ridley$6,900
WRDavante Adams$8,400
WRDeVante Parker$7,200
TEKyle Rudolph$4,800
FLXBilal Powell$4,900
DEFNO Saints$3,800

Weekly Best Lineup – RB Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBSam Darnold$7,700
RBChristian McCaffery$11,000
RBDerrick Henry$9,100
WRRobby Anderson$6,400
WRDeVante Parker$7,200
WR Diontae Johnson $5,100
TEKyle Rudolph$4,800
FLXBilal Powell$4,900
DEFSan Francisco 49ers$3,800

I wish you all the best in week 14!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the outstanding work that Jeff Ratcliffe does over at ProFootballFocus!

Jeff Ratcliffe
@JeffRatcliffe
Fantasy football for @PFF
| Husband & dad | Rankings | DFS | Player prop bets | winning @SiriusXM host | TV on @CBSSportsNet
| Wu-Tang | IG: jeffratcliffePhilly
jeffratcliffe.com

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