Nimble w/Numbers
Vol.1 Issue 9
12/7/2019
Show me the money! Fantasy football is the best form of sports entertainment. Full Stop. Over the last 20 years fantasy football has grown into a billion dollar industry with around 60 million people participating in 2019. There are lots of compelling reasons people are playing fantasy football, but why the sudden explosion in popularity? I know that in my home re-draft league, the draft night spectacle is wild and well worth the price of admission. But it has to be more than bros loving football and getting together to bro out and talk copious amounts of trash while slamming beers and while trying to figure out why Sammy Watkins went in the third round. In reality billions of dollars are wagered/gambled each year on fantasy football. Cash is king. And until recently, I thought that most fantasy football participants all agreed that the ultimate purpose for playing fantasy football was to cash. That’s why I was shocked when I came across a poll that Jeff Ratcliffe from ProFootballFocus (PFF) conducted on whether or not you should pick players up off the wavier wire after you have been eliminated from the playoffs. 44% of the over 5,000 people who voted, indicated that they think “you should keep playing” even if you do not make the playoffs. It was stunning to me that such a large percentage of the fantasy football community clearly doesn’t that the losers in your fantasy league shouldn’t take precedence over the winners.
Why would people who have nothing to play for keep picking up players even after they have been eliminated from cashing? My own core belief on this issue is that once the playoffs have started and you are eliminated from contention, no longer having the opportunity to win cash, you should under no circumstances ever pick up a player off of the waiver wire. (If you play in a no money league. First, WTF? And second, this doesn’t apply to you). Firmly entrenched in my beliefs, I bravely dropped into the comments on Jeff’s thread and mixed it up with the 44% to try to find out where they had lost their way.
- Draft Picks are on the line – I sucked all year and now I want to be rewarded
- Avoid the Toilet Bowl punishment – I don’t want to wear a dress at Arby’s!
- The Consolidation bracket made me do it – I can’t think for myself
- I paid for this dammit! – Me > People who can actually win money
- Over my dead body! – I cannot let anyone win because I am insecure.
I realize that lots of leagues incentivize continued participation once the playoffs start by tying draft picks to where you finish in the consolidation ladder or forcing the last place finisher in the league to some outrageous form of humiliation. Both of these ideas makes sense on the surface. Keep people involved in the league. Make the draft order interesting. Got it. But explain to me why it should trump (Sorry, I hate even correctly using that word now.) my ability to win cash. Your little last place tournament isn’t the reason we are here. It’s like going to a basketball court. Getting a team together. Waiting your turn. Getting on the court. Losing a game. And then teaming up with the team that lost the first game and kicking the winners off the court so that you losers can run a game. You lost. Take your ball and go home and then open up your computer or phone and play DFS.
Still others argue the old tried and true, if someone built the bridge, we have to walk on it fallacy. When did we lose the plot and decide that since ESPN and Yahoo have a consolidation bracket, it is mandatory everyone participate in it? I’m guessing that Jake is the kind of guy that never fails to fills out and mail in the warranty card for his electric toothbrush. Oh it is simple Jake. You can simply disregard the consolidation ladder because it isn’t required to win the championship.
And of course, there is the most American argument of them all. ME! It is all about me and my fun. I will be playing every single week and actively trying to disrupt people who actually can win money. Oh, its a dick move alright. Imagine people thinking that a game that they are eliminated from should somehow be negatively impacted by them. This is just gross. This guy would be kicked out of my league immediately. I respect the guys I play with in my home league too much to purposefully try to take food out of their mouths. If you play fantasy football to be a dick to your friends and family, your definitely helping me prove my point.
My decent into madness (Jeff’s Twitter thread) did not deter me. All of the reasons people provided made some sense. They weren’t outrageous, they just were short sighted and individualistic. They elevate participants who have lost the chance to win cash and placed them on par with those who still have skin in the game. This is where all of their arguments fall apart. Not all fantasy teams are created equally, and those that cannot compete for a championship shouldn’t hinder those who can once they have been eliminated. Here is my suggestion to all the good fantasy football participants who did not make the playoffs: Play DFS.
Winners!
Now let’s take a look at some of the DFS winners who took down some of the smaller GPP tournaments. Analyzing these winning lineups, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal lineup for week 14.
Winning lineup for Week 13 Fanduel $125K Sun NFL Dive ($1 to enter) contest.
Winning lineup for Week 13 Fanduel $50K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.
Analyzing the Weekly Winners
- Both lineups featured a low priced QB/WR stack from a high scoring game.
- Identify High Scoring Games! The winners featured a combined total of 9 Dolphins/Eagles players on their rosters. That was 50% of their rosters.
- Miles Sanders was a stone cold steal last week priced at only $5,800.
- The WR combo of Davante Adams and DeVante Parker netted 52.8 fantasy points.
- Tyler Higbee played the pass funnel 32nd ranked Arizona Cardinals defense and went for 7 rec, for 107 yards and 1 TD.
- Silver lining: Both winners swung and missed (Chubb – 8.4 and Agholor 7.6) and were still able to bring home the victory.
- Cheap DEFs are still back! Bucs DEF scored 23 points for a 6.1x value and the Chiefs scored 22 points and had a value of 5.2x.
DFS Resources
Each week I peel back the current and share part of my process for constructing my DFS lineups. This week I am sharing the outstanding work of Jeff Ratcliffe and the great team at ProFootballFocus. Jeff’s weekly fantasy focus article contains insights and analysis that helps me identify key players to build my core lineup around. I highly recommend you add Jeff to your weekly DFS process as well!
QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups
QB | Aaron Rodgers $8,100 | Sam Darnold $7,700 | Baker Mayfield $7,600 | Ryan Fitzpatrick $7,400 |
WR | Davante Adams $8,000 Allen Lazard $5,600 | Robby Anderson $6,400 Jamison Crowder $6,000 | Jarvis Landry $7,300 Odell Beckham $7,800 | DeVante Parker $7,200 *Mike Gesicki $5,400 |
*QB/TE Stack
High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
| QB | Lamar Jackson $9,000 | Aaron Rodgers $8,100 | Sam Darnold $7,700 | Jameis Winston $7,700 |
RB | Christian McCaffery $11,000 | Derrick Henry $9,100 | Aaron Jones $7,800 | Melvin Gordon $7,300 |
WR | Michael Thomas $8,000 | Davante Adams $8,000 | Chris Godwin $7,900 | Kenny Golladay $7,400 |
TE | Austin Hooper $6,600 | Mark Andrews $6,600 | Jack Doyle $6,300 | Darren Waller $6,200 |
DST | Green Bay Packers $5,000 | Houston Texans $4,700 |
Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
QB | Ryan Tannehill $7,300 | Kyle Allen $7,100 | Andy Dalton $7,000 |
RB | James White $6,000 | Jamaal Williams $5,600 | Patrick Laird $5,500 |
| RB | Alexander Mattison $5,100 | Darwin Thompson $5,100 | Bilal Powell $4,900 |
WR | D.J. Moore $7,100 | Calvin Ridley $6,900 | Keenan Allen $6,800 |
WR | James Washington $6,700 | Tyler Boyd 6,300 | Zach Pascal $6,100 |
TE | Vance McDonald $5,800 | Ryan Griffin $5,600 | Kyle Rudolph $4,800 |
| DST | San Francisco $3,800 | Tampa Bay $3,800 |
Weekly Best Lineup – WR Heavy
| POS | Player Name | Price |
| QB | Aaron Rodger | $8,640 |
| RB | Kareem Hunt | $6,400 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | $9,100 |
| WR | Calvin Ridley | $6,900 |
| WR | Davante Adams | $8,400 |
| WR | DeVante Parker | $7,200 |
| TE | Kyle Rudolph | $4,800 |
| FLX | Bilal Powell | $4,900 |
| DEF | NO Saints | $3,800 |
Weekly Best Lineup – RB Heavy
| POS | Player Name | Price |
| QB | Sam Darnold | $7,700 |
| RB | Christian McCaffery | $11,000 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | $9,100 |
| WR | Robby Anderson | $6,400 |
| WR | DeVante Parker | $7,200 |
| WR | Diontae Johnson | $5,100 |
| TE | Kyle Rudolph | $4,800 |
| FLX | Bilal Powell | $4,900 |
| DEF | San Francisco 49ers | $3,800 |
I wish you all the best in week 14!
May the fantasy gods be with us all!
Nimble w/Numbers
Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the outstanding work that Jeff Ratcliffe does over at ProFootballFocus!
| Jeff Ratcliffe @JeffRatcliffe Fantasy football for @PFF | Husband & dad | Rankings | DFS | Player prop bets | winning @SiriusXM host | TV on @CBSSportsNet | Wu-Tang | IG: jeffratcliffePhilly jeffratcliffe.com |
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