Nimble w/Numbers
Vol.1 Issue 8
11/30/2019
Heat is one of my favorite movies. During the dramatic bank robbery scene, there is a pivotal moment when De Niro and his team exit the bank. Brandishing automatic weapons and carrying millions of dollars in huge black duffel bags, they head towards their getaway car. The camera cuts to Al Pacnio and his LAPD Major Crimes Unit Team, who unbeknownst to the robbers, have descended on the bank in order to thwart the attempted robbery. De Niro and Tom Sizemore make it to the car and just as Val Kilmer exits the bank, money in hand, he allows a wry, smugly satisfied smile to briefly flash across his face. This portends to disaster though, he has celebrated too soon, and a split second later all hell breaks lose on the streets of LA. It is cinematic perfection.
My own personal “Heat” moment happened last Sunday. After smugly boasting of taking down a casino, my team and I were flat out robbed by the Washington football team (who of course won the game against the Lions outright). SMH. Since the Lions were the play of the day, we infused the match-up into all of our teasers and parlays. Just like our heroes in Heat, who thought they planned the perfect robbery, our bankrolls never stood a chance to make it out alive. There was so much bitterness when the Lions gave up the game winning field goal. Betting tickets were being ripped up and discarded left and right and once again the Washington football team was resoundingly cursed. We were all big losers. Everyone, except for Chuck that is. Who is Chuck you ask? I don’t know! None of us had ever met the guy. He just showed up as a friend of a friend and then took down a super parlay and won $2,000. He had cashed in his winning ticket and split by 4:10 p.m. leaving us all embittered and a bit shell shocked. To a man we all agreed. We had been robbed!! Oh and F Chuck!
Winners!
We are turning it around this week! Now let’s take a look at some of the DFS winners who took down some of the smaller GPP tournaments. Analyzing these winning lineups, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal lineup for week 13.
Winning lineup for Week 12 Fanduel $15K Sun NFL Dive ($0.05 to enter) contest.
Winning lineup for Week 12 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.
Analyzing the Weekly Winners
- Both lineups featured a low priced QB/WR stack. Good reminder that you can find cheap value at QB and breaking the bank for Lamar Jackson isn’t always a recipe for success in GPP tournaments.
- One team had 4 Browns. I’ll give you a minute to process. Jarvis Landry has been fire the last 4 weeks with 29 receptions for 339 yards and 5 TDs.
- The RB stack in the JAC vs TEN game paid off in a big way with Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette combining for over 60 points.
- Didn’t you get the message that it was Chris Godwin szn last week?
- Ertz was the only TE who actually saw game action last week. I kid (only 4 TE scored over 10 points on the main slate on Sunday).
- Cheap DSTs are back! Washington had an ungodly 7.0x value last week.
Podcasts
Listening to podcasts is pretty much a life requirement for anyone living in 2019. I’m sure that you wouldn’t be surprised to learn that each week I listen to select DFS Podcasts as part of my preparation for building my lineups. One of my favorites is the Rotobahn Podcast featuring Pete Davidson. Check out his outstanding work at Rotobahn and make sure to listen to his weekly DFS Podcast for player insights and match-up analysis.
QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups
QB | Patrick Mahomes $8,600 | Aaron Rodgers $8,100 | Jared Goff $7,900 | Nick Foles $7,500 |
WR | Tyreek Hill $8,400 Sammy Watkins $6,100 | Davante Adams $8,000 *Aaron Jones $8,000 | Cooper Kupp $7,800 Robert Woods $7,800 | D.J. Chark $6,900 Dede Westbrook $6,900 |
*QB/RB Stack
High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
| QB | Lamar Jackson $8,700 | Patrick Mahomes $8,600 | Aaron Rodgers $8,100 | |
RB | Christian McCaffery $11,000 | Aaron Jones $8,000 | Josh Jacobs $7,700 | Le’veon Bell $7,300 |
WR | Davante Adams $8,000 | Cooper Kupp $7,800 | Jarvis Landry $7,400 | D.J. Moore $6,800 |
TE | Travis Kelce $7,100 | George Kittle $7,000 | Darren Waller $6,100 | Ryan Griffin $5,600 |
DST | Philadelphia Eagles $5,000 | Carolina Panther $4,700 |
Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential.
QB | Sam Darnold $7,600 | Nick Foles $7,500 | Carson Wentz $7,000 |
RB | Kenyan Drake $6,400 | Phillip Lindsay $6,300 | Ronald Jones $6,200 |
| RB | Miles Sanders $5,800 | Darrel Williams $5,400 | Chase Edmonds $5,000 |
WR | Alshon Jeffery $6,500 | Emmanuel Sanders $6,400 | Jamison Crowder $6,300 |
WR | Sammy Watkins $6,100 | Christian Kirk 6,100 | DeVante Parker $6,000 |
TE | Tyler Higbee $5,500 | Dallas Goedert $5,200 | Jack Doyle $5,000 |
| DST | LA Chargers $3,900 | Pittsburgh Steelers $3,700 |
Weekly Best Lineup – WR/TE Heavy
| POS | Player Name | Price |
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | $8,600 |
| RB | Ronald Jones | $6,200 |
| RB | Miles Sanders | $5,800 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | $8,400 |
| WR | Davante Adams | $8,000 |
| WR | DeVante Parker | $6,000 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | $7,100 |
| FLX | Darren Waller | $6,100 |
| DST | LA Chargers | $3,900 |
Weekly Best Lineup – RB Heavy
| POS | Player Name | Price |
| QB | Kyle Allen | $7,200 |
| RB | Christian McCaffery | $11,000 |
| RB | Leonard Fournette | $7,600 |
| WR | Alshon Jeffery | $6,500 |
| WR | D.J. Chark | $6,900 |
| WR | D.J. Moore | $6,800 |
| TE | Jack Doyle | $5,000 |
| FLX | Chase Edmonds | $5,000 |
| DST | Baltimore Ravens | $4,000 |
I wish you all the best in week 13!
May the fantasy gods be with us all!
Nimble w/Numbers
Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the outstanding work that Pete Davidson does over at Rotobahn!
| Pete Davidson @Rotobahn http://Rotobahn.com is my baby. Fantasy Football writer and broadcaster for @WEEI. Unwilling sufferer of fools and lover of logic. |
