Part 2: This is a Robbery!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 8 

11/30/2019

Heat is one of my favorite movies. During the dramatic bank robbery scene, there is a pivotal moment when De Niro and his team exit the bank. Brandishing automatic weapons and carrying millions of dollars in huge black duffel bags, they head towards their getaway car. The camera cuts to Al Pacnio and his LAPD Major Crimes Unit Team, who unbeknownst to the robbers, have descended on the bank in order to thwart the attempted robbery. De Niro and Tom Sizemore make it to the car and just as Val Kilmer exits the bank, money in hand, he allows a wry, smugly satisfied smile to briefly flash across his face. This portends to disaster though, he has celebrated too soon, and a split second later all hell breaks lose on the streets of LA. It is cinematic perfection.

My own personal “Heat” moment happened last Sunday. After smugly boasting of taking down a casino, my team and I were flat out robbed by the Washington football team (who of course won the game against the Lions outright). SMH. Since the Lions were the play of the day, we infused the match-up into all of our teasers and parlays. Just like our heroes in Heat, who thought they planned the perfect robbery, our bankrolls never stood a chance to make it out alive. There was so much bitterness when the Lions gave up the game winning field goal. Betting tickets were being ripped up and discarded left and right and once again the Washington football team was resoundingly cursed. We were all big losers. Everyone, except for Chuck that is. Who is Chuck you ask? I don’t know! None of us had ever met the guy. He just showed up as a friend of a friend and then took down a super parlay and won $2,000. He had cashed in his winning ticket and split by 4:10 p.m. leaving us all embittered and a bit shell shocked. To a man we all agreed. We had been robbed!! Oh and F Chuck!

Winners!

We are turning it around this week! Now let’s take a look at some of the DFS winners who took down some of the smaller GPP tournaments. Analyzing these winning lineups, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal lineup for week 13.

Winning lineup for Week 12 Fanduel $15K Sun NFL Dive ($0.05 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 12 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Both lineups featured a low priced QB/WR stack. Good reminder that you can find cheap value at QB and breaking the bank for Lamar Jackson isn’t always a recipe for success in GPP tournaments.
  • One team had 4 Browns. I’ll give you a minute to process. Jarvis Landry has been fire the last 4 weeks with 29 receptions for 339 yards and 5 TDs.
  • The RB stack in the JAC vs TEN game paid off in a big way with Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette combining for over 60 points.
  • Didn’t you get the message that it was Chris Godwin szn last week?
  • Ertz was the only TE who actually saw game action last week. I kid (only 4 TE scored over 10 points on the main slate on Sunday).
  • Cheap DSTs are back! Washington had an ungodly 7.0x value last week.

Podcasts

Listening to podcasts is pretty much a life requirement for anyone living in 2019. I’m sure that you wouldn’t be surprised to learn that each week I listen to select DFS Podcasts as part of my preparation for building my lineups. One of my favorites is the Rotobahn Podcast featuring Pete Davidson. Check out his outstanding work at Rotobahn and make sure to listen to his weekly DFS Podcast for player insights and match-up analysis.

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Patrick
Mahomes
$8,600
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100
Jared
Goff
$7,900
Nick
Foles
$7,500


WR
Tyreek
Hill
$8,400

Sammy
Watkins
$6,100
Davante
Adams
$8,000

*Aaron
Jones
$8,000
Cooper
Kupp
$7,800

Robert
Woods
$7,800
D.J.
Chark
$6,900 

Dede
Westbrook
$6,900

*QB/RB Stack

High Cost value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 

QBLamar
Jackson
$8,700
Patrick
Mahomes
$8,600
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,100

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$11,000
Aaron
Jones
$8,000
Josh
Jacobs
$7,700
Le’veon
Bell
$7,300

WR
Davante
Adams
$8,000
Cooper
Kupp
$7,800
Jarvis
Landry
$7,400
D.J.
Moore
$6,800

TE
Travis
Kelce
$7,100
George
Kittle
$7,000
Darren
Waller
$6,100
Ryan
Griffin
$5,600

DST
Philadelphia
Eagles
$5,000
Carolina
Panther
$4,700



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Sam
Darnold
$7,600
Nick
Foles
$7,500
Carson
Wentz
$7,000 

RB
Kenyan
Drake
$6,400
Phillip
Lindsay
$6,300
Ronald
Jones
$6,200
RBMiles
Sanders
$5,800
Darrel
Williams
$5,400
Chase
Edmonds
$5,000

WR
Alshon
Jeffery
$6,500
Emmanuel
Sanders
$6,400
Jamison
Crowder
$6,300

WR
Sammy
Watkins
$6,100
Christian
Kirk
6,100
DeVante
Parker
$6,000

TE
Tyler
Higbee
$5,500
Dallas
Goedert
$5,200 
Jack
Doyle
$5,000 
DSTLA
Chargers
$3,900
Pittsburgh
Steelers
$3,700

Weekly Best LineupWR/TE Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBPatrick Mahomes $8,600
RBRonald Jones$6,200
RBMiles Sanders$5,800
WRTyreek Hill$8,400
WRDavante Adams$8,000
WRDeVante Parker$6,000
TETravis Kelce$7,100
FLXDarren Waller$6,100
DSTLA Chargers$3,900

Weekly Best LineupRB Heavy

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBKyle Allen $7,200
RBChristian McCaffery $11,000
RBLeonard Fournette $7,600
WRAlshon Jeffery$6,500
WRD.J. Chark $6,900
WRD.J. Moore$6,800
TEJack Doyle$5,000
FLXChase Edmonds$5,000
DSTBaltimore Ravens$4,000

I wish you all the best in week 13!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the outstanding work that Pete Davidson does over at Rotobahn!

Pete Davidson
@Rotobahn
http://Rotobahn.com is my baby. Fantasy Football writer and broadcaster for @WEEI. Unwilling sufferer of fools and lover of logic.

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