Happy 7th birthday to WR2 Theory!! It’s the simple and now proven idea that fantasy footballers overvalue WR1s on NFL teams, while subsequently undervaluing WR2s. By comparing ADP data trends to the final end-of-season fantasy wide receiver rankings the pattern has become clear. After seven years of writing this article each summer, I have over 12 years of historical wide receiver data that proves my theory is more of a “fantasy law” at this point. I can say with certainty that the fantasy community consistently misvalues WRs in general, and according to my historical data, it’s only getting worse. You could go along with the best ball bro hoard or learn a more profitable way to play fantasy football, WR2 Theory.
WR2 Theory intentionally fades expensive, early-round wide receivers. Instead, it strategically targets undervalued WR2s and WR3s to build a balanced championship-winning team. Accurately understanding the wide receiver value landscape allows drafters to construct fantasy rosters with maximum point-scoring potential; think about it as a combination of “pointsmaxxing ” while “valuemaxxing.” That was for the youth. Knowing that there is bankable wide receiver value in later rounds is essential to building a strong team at all positions. Sure, you can start your draft WR/WR, just know that it’s much harder and way less efficient to go reaching for ZeroRB candidates later in drafts than it is to find top 25 WRs.
The Championships and Shit Talking
WR2 Theory has been good to me, and to those who’ve learned its secrets. What’s the use of a fantasy football drafting strategy if you cannot use it to beat your best friends and embarrass your fantasy rivals? Over the last six years, I have honed my WR2 Theory drafting strategy. I utilized it to win 14 fantasy football leagues. Most importantly, it has earned me over $10,000 in prize money. If you show this to the IRS, I will deny it all, though. LOL
I actually used my league winnings to get Scott Hanson to do a Cameo trash-talking the other Fantasy Experts in my league after I won it for the third straight year! I’ve been beating the likes of International ZeroRB truther and “Wide Receiver Whisperer” Denny “Never Been Owned” Carter from NBC Sports and Rotoworld. I have also outperformed FantasyPros perennial Top 5 ranker Joe Bond of Fantasy Six Pack. Additionally, I’ve suateed the connoisseur of culinary delicacies and the one and only Sultan of Spicy hot takes himself, Bo McBrayer. He is of HotboxBatch fame, a true OG. My favorite Canton Compadre, Jorge Martin from Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life, was also soundly defeated.
Of course, there’s my podcast partner from the FFMillionaires, by far the greatest fantasy football player I’ve competed against in real life, Mike “Cash” Collins, who had this to say about WR2 Theory: “Goddammit!! He just won’t stop winning!” OK. Maybe he didn’t say that, but when he’s sent over the last two yearly payments of $600 for winning most points in our home league, I know he’s thinking it.
The success has been sweet and has solidified WR2 Theory as an advantageous and lucrative drafting strategy. The inherent flexibility of the strategy allows you to use it with multiple other strategies. These include value-based drafting, HeroRB, Late Round QB, TE-heavy, BIG Rookie, running QB, and ZeroRB. It works with them all, just not BIGG WR. Sorry, best ball bros.
In this article, I will review the history of WR2 Theory. I will describe how I assess potential WR2s every season. I will argue the “why” and explain the “how” of using WR2 Theory in this year’s fantasy football drafts. The key to the strategy is that you aren’t looking for a single league winner. There’s no magic bullet. WR2Theory stacks WR value so your gun is loaded with bullets that will help you win your league.
WR2 Theory Origin Story
Everyone loves a good origin story. If you don’t, just scroll past to get to the analytics.
Seven seasons ago, WR2 Theory was officially launched into the fantasy football ether. If you missed the origin story, WR2 Theory’s roots can be traced to a brief but meaningful Twitter exchange with JJ Zachariason in February 2020. JJ posted a tweet asking for questions for his Late-Round Podcast mailbag. Everything fell into place as I stumbled upon it. I posted a question I had been mulling over for the last few seasons. Simply put, I wanted to know how accurately we, the fantasy footballers, could predict which wide receiver finished the season as the WR1 on their team. As a fantasy community, were we successful in making those predictions? I was sure that fantasy football analysts had already answered this question. If JJ could just kindly push me in the right direction, I could get that info. Then I would be getting on with winning all my leagues….in February….don’t judge me.
After talking to JJ, it quickly became apparent that the easy answers I was seeking by asking a fantasy expert were not readily available to be effortlessly plucked from the fantasy football tree of knowledge. If my question was going to be answered, I was gonna need to take the fantasy stats into my own hands. I started immediately and haven’t looked back.
Analytics – The Wide Receiver Data Trends
I began by poring over the last 12 seasons of WR ADP data and then compared it to the end-of-the-season wide receiver rankings. The data trend I found was staggering. Every season, 30-40% of wide receivers who are drafted as the WR1 on their own team are outperformed by a teammate. Only 19 of the 32 (59%) of the WR1s drafted last year actually finished as the WR1 on their own team. Value is being found in later rounds; just like LateRoundQB, I digress.
As I dug further into the data, I started to see a pattern emerge. Each year, there are wide receivers who are routinely undervalued and outperform their ADP. In 2021, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, Darnell Mooney, and Christian Kirk were all drafted as the WR2 on their respective teams. They each finished as the WR1.
Again in 2022, Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk, Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson all were drafted as the respective WR2s on their teams, and you already know how this ends: they finished as the WR1 on their teams.
2023 was no exception. Puka Nacua, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, George Pickens, Jordan Addison, and Courtland Sutton were drafted as the WR2 on their respective teams. They finished the season as the WR1. Puka was a league winner, and he basically went undrafted.
And guess what, 2024 was the exception. No, I am kidding! WR2 Theory is the law now, after six seasons with no exceptions. Last season, 10 players that were drafted as the WR2 or later on their respective teams ended up finishing as their team’s top wide receiver based on fantasy points.
2025 was the year WR2 Theory fell apart? Not. It was proven 100% accurate 60% of the time. Cue the Anchorman gif! These 13 wide receivers were drafted as the WR2 or WR4 on their teams, and all finished WR1 on their team, outscoring their teammate with the higher ADP. Just check out the data for yourself.
A whopping 77% of these wide receivers were drafted after round 7 of PPR drafts last season, with seven finishing in the top 25, and nine in the top 30 in wide receiver fantasy points. Are you sold on WR2 Theory yet? Read on.
According to my analysis, 18 out of 32 WR1s drafted failed to meet their 2025 ADP. Only 11 wide receivers drafted first on their team finished at or above their 2025 ADP. Which means only 34% of WR1’s returned value on the high-end draft capital that drafters forked over for them. A 34% success rate seems bad, no? Maybe best ball bros don’t actually know ball…I mean, at least not fantasy football.
Fantasy drafters overpaid for all of the following WR1s in 2025. Some marginally, others egregiously. Pour some out for all the Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Tyreek Hill drafters. We can only hope that the biggest jerk in your home league drafted them all on his team.
Several factors contributed to this massive misallocation of wide receiver value in fantasy drafts. Injuries, poor player performance, changes to offensive personnel, or scheme changes mid-season. The overall trend, though, points to the inflated overvaluation of WR1s by fantasy footballers, in general. Think about it as paying the WR1 Tariff on your draft selection. The WR2s and WR3s are cheaper. They see more man and less press at the line of scrimmage, release from the slot more often, all while possessing less inherent risk. They have greater upside relative to their ADP. Plus, there are no tariffs!
You don’t have to be Nimble with Numbers to see the discrepancy between consensus wide receiver ADP and true wide receiver value. The question then becomes, how do we identify the next WR2 to become a WR1? How can we find the WR3 who will greatly outperform their ADP? And how do you avoid overpriced WR1s? You ask great questions. Let’s find out.
WR2 Theory Criteria for Success
Every evaluation/prediction process needs criteria for success. I recently updated my evaluation process to include the following components;
Available Targets: the targets and air yards that are available in a given offense at the start of each season. Specifically focusing on increased opportunities in the offense.
High Volume Passing Offenses: offenses that consistently/historically see an increased percentage of passing volume when compared to the league average. The teams who consistently lead the league in passing EPA or have terrible defenses, so they are always playing from behind.
Emerging Talent/Rookies: Second and third-year breakouts, combined with rookie wide receivers immediately making a fantasy impact, sprinkled in an evolving landscape of aging veterans, and expiring contracts.
Injuries: Every season injuries make and shape the NFL landscape. Monitoring injury status, when players are scheduled to return from injury, and how injuries impact the depth charts is key to finding breakout players during the season.
ADP – Average Draft Position – last year I advocated for ADP being a myth, but it’s more of a social construct that should be used as a rough guide to a player’s perceived market value. It has a wide range depending on who you are drafting with. In leagues with WR vacuums like Denny “ZeroRB” Carter and Justin “BestBall” Bruni, you should assume all WRs on the board will be drafted by them for the first 5-6 rounds.
ADP Range – The ceiling, median, and floor a player is being drafted in fantasy football. Using the 4for4 ADP Tool is extremely helpful to gather ADP data from a wide range of fantasy football sites.
Available Targets & Air Yards
Targets are always earned in any offense. Assessing the opportunities present in an offense before the season starts is a fruitful practice. It provides a data-driven big-picture approach. I’ve used this to determine potential breakout wide receivers in the past.
Available air yards and target data are important data points. I use these data points to help identify potential value in offenses. They also help me identify WRs who fit into the WR2 Theory. These WRs have the potential to break if the ball bounces their way.
Here is the list of 2026 Available Targets brought to you by Justin Edwards from 4for4. I updated his data with color graphics and made it sortable and accessible here.
No direct correlation exists between any player on a team and the targets in an offense from the previous season. However, edges are clearly apparent based on the data. In 2024, the Jacksonville Jaguars had the second-most available targets with 251. A talented young rookie being drafted to start in the offense was an opportunity for fantasy drafters. I wrote extensively about the potential Brian Thomas Jr. breakout in the 2024 edition of WR2 Theory. Here’s what I said:
The writing was on the WR2 Theory wall in 2024 for Brian Thomas Jr. You just had to read WR2 Theory.
After reviewing the available target data, I studied the team-specific factors and circumstances to identify and document the conditions that led to the shift in the WR value for each team. Each team had its own unique set of circumstances that led to the upheaval of the WR1. Injuries, rookie emergence, improved quarterback play,
Injuries: Injuries, like Malik Nabers and Tyreek Hill, immediately created an opportunity for WanDale Robinson and Jaylen Waddle’s ascensions last season to WR1 status. In the case of Michael Wilson, he took advantage of Marvin Harrison Jr.’s absence and never relinquished the WR1 role when Harrison returned.
Every season, a wide receiver gets hurt, which instantly elevates the WR2 on the team into the WR1 role. You never want to plan for a player to get injured. However, understanding that 100% of the NFL will get injured at some point is helpful.
Last season, Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson also missed more than half the season on the Injured Reserve (IR). It helps to see where the value lies in case something does happen to the WR1 and target players who are poised for an increase in target share.
High-Volume Passing Offenses
High-volume passing offenses have always ruled the fantasy football streets. It is undeniable that the NFL has become a passing league. Last year, seven teams featured at least two wide receivers who finished in the fantasy top 36.
Explosive Offenses: Over the last eight years, the following teams supported two top-36 WRs, including nine offenses last season!
Follow the trends. Which teams are projected to be the high-volume passing leaders in 2026? Here are the top 12 fantasy-producing teams for fantasy wide receiver in 2025. Teams like the LA Rams, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, and LA Chargers have consistently produced two starting fantasy wide receivers for years.
Emerging Talent/Rookies
What rookies and emergent talent can you find in the later rounds? For the longest time, the common-sense wisdom in redraft leagues was different. People believed it was best to wait on rookie wide receivers. These players are typically unreliable. They tend to break out later in years two or three. I remember my friend drafting 8 rookies in 2019, and I thought the man had lost his damn mind. He did lose most of his early-season matches. However, I watched his team grow stronger and stronger. By the end of the season, it was running on all cylinders. I learned from watching him. Rookies are good, just not that many on one team.
2026 WR2 Class
This year, WR2 Theory candidates are broken up into five tiers based on their potential fantasy ceilings. I’m prioritizing Tier 1 and 2 WRs in my drafts. Tiers 3 and 4 are later-round depth and flex options. Tier 5 is used primarily for waiver wire and bye-week support.
Tier 1 – Studs – WR1 Potential – Studs to Build Your Team Around
Tier 2 – Starters – WR2 Potential – Solid Weekly Starters
Tier 3 – Flex – WR3 Potential – Weekly Flex Options
Tier 4 – Depth – WR4 Potential – Roster Depth with Upside
Tier 5 – Stashes – WR5 Potential – Bye Week and Injury Depth
Here are my 2025 WR2 Theory break-out candidates identified by Tiers. All 2025 ADP rankings come directly from 4for4’s ADP tool and are based on a 12-team PPR league.
Tier 1 – Studs– Rounds 3–5
George Pickens – Dallas Cowboys – WR11
The only thing higher than George Pickens ADP (WR11) right now is CeeDee Lamb’s ADP (WR5), which technically makes Pickens eligible for his third dalliance with WR2 Theory. Last year, when his ADP was WR27, I said this:
“For the record, I am not predicting that Pickens outproduces CeeDee Lamb this season. I am predicting that consistently benefiting from single coverage looks, Pickens will have a consistent WR2 ceiling.”
I can admit when I am wrong, and right at the same time. Pickens excelled last year in the Cowboys’ offense, which went from -0.11 EPA per play to a positive 0.08 EPA per play in 2025. Dak Prescott’s connection with Pickens played a significant role in both the Cowboys’ offensive success and Pickens’ ascension to a top 5 wide receiver scoring 291.9 points.
Fast forward a year and Pickens is now being drafted in the third round, sandwiched between Rashee Rice and DeVonta Smith. I’m drafting Pickens ahead of both Rice and Smith given the more explosive offense and the single coverage afforded Pickens on the outside. Defenses cannot double both Pickens and Lamb. As Ron Burgundy says, “It’s Science.”
Fantasy Stats Projection: 85 receptions, 1,200 yards, 8 TDs = 253 FP – WR9
Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals – WR17
Tee Higgins struggled the first six weeks of last season, averaging only 8.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG). Fantasy managers were losing their shit as the wide receiver drafted WR12 last year was the WR47. The bros were bawling.
Not all was lost, though. After Week 6, Higgins averaged 17.7 FPPG, which was ninth best for NFL wide receivers. This pendulum swinging back in a positive direction for Higgins gives me more confidence drafting him in 2026.
Higgins scored nine touchdowns in his last nine games last season, which indicates that Burrow trusts him in the red zone and the opportunities will be there. Higgins is currently the least expensive he’s been all offseason, costing you a solid fourth-round pick at his WR17 price tag.
Higgins has back-to-back double-digit touchdown seasons (10, 11) the last two years. His 21touchdowns rank him 4th among NFL wide receivers behind only his teammate Ja’Marr Chase (25), Amon-Ra St. Brown (23), and Davante Adams (22).
The main knock on Higgins is his target volume, which, to be fair, has not been consistent. Last season he finished with a 15.3% target share, compared to 28.9% for his running mate, Chase. It’s almost double the volume compared to Higgins.
Higgins 60% catch rate last year, and his 14.3 yards per reception (YPR) demonstrate his big-play usage in the Bengals’ high-octane offense. According to Warren Sharp Football Analysis, the Bengals currently have the second most favorable schedule of all NFL offenses. This is music to my ears.
Bottom Line: Higgins is a boom/bust wide receiver that has the potential to score 33.1 points or 2.5. That range often frustrates fantasy managers who are looking for consistency in the round-four selection. Given his long-term contract and steady improvement last season, I am wheels up on Higgins in 2026 and will not be afraid to smash the “DRAFT” button!
Fantasy Stats Projection: 70 receptions, 950 yards, 9 TDs = 219 FP – WR15
Davante Adams – Los Angeles Rams – WR24
Davante Adams fit the LA Rams offense like a glove last year, connecting with Matthew Stafford for a league-leading 14 touchdowns. A marriage made in backyard football heaven. A gunslinger who loves to throw it up to a wide receiver who has the most touchdown receptions amongst all active NFL wide receivers.
According to StatMuse, Adams leads all NFL receivers with 73 receiving touchdowns over the last 6 years. His 117 all-time receiving touchdowns rank him 7th all-time, four behind Larry Fitzgerald, and with a fighter’s chance to leapfrog Marvin Harrison Jr. and Cris Carter into 4th all-time if he repeats last year’s performance.
Stafford passed for 46 touchdowns in 2026 and led the NFL in passing yards with over 4,700. Oh, he also led the NFL by 12 passing touchdowns over Jared Goff’s 34 TDs and 15 more than the third-highest, Drake Maye, who threw for 31.
Davante Adams is 33 years old, and his most productive days are behind him, but he is NOT washed. Over the last six seasons, he finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 11th, and 9th last year in fantasy points for wide receivers. Adams’ current ADP is WR24; his regression costs are already baked into his draft price.
Last year I wrote the following:
“Adams changes this Rams offense, increasing the vertical and red-zone attack strategies. I do not expect him to outscore Puka week-to-week, but there is no denying Adams’s touchdown upside. I am projecting Adams for 8 touchdowns and close to 230 fantasy points. He’s a solid WR2 you can build your team around.”
He scored 222.9 fantasy points and scored six more touchdowns than I predicted. I think his floor is 200 fantasy points this season, with his ceiling being close to 220 if he stays healthy for 85% of the games this year. He’s an easy smash at the end of the fourth round/beginning of the 5th.
Fantasy Stats Projection: 75 receptions, 800 yards, 10 TDs = 215 FP – WR18
Jameson Williams – Detroit Lions – WR25
Last season Jameson Williams’ ADP heading into fantasy drafts was WR28, and this is what I said:
“Jameson sizzled last season, finishing as the overall WR22, with 212.2 FP. Currently, he is being drafted below his ceiling and at his floor.” Turns out his ceiling was a true WR1 last season, despite taking the long way to get there.
Williams finished the 2025 season as WR12, scoring a respectable 219.9 fantasy points (FP) on only 102 targets. He struggled through the first five games to start the season, scoring only 39.5 points and averaging 7.8 FPPG. He was universally benched and became the scorn of Twitter for a few angry weeks.
Williams’ role in the offense has not changed, and I still expect him to get 100-110 targets this season, score 210-230 fantasy points, and finish as a top 15 WR. Currently, he is being drafted as the WR25, which is low-key outrageous. I expect his ADP to creep up into the end of the fourth round by the time drafts roll around in late August/Early September.
I’m targeting him as the second wide receiver drafted on my team. If I can build a strong group of stud running backs my first few rounds, Williams slots perfectly as my second WR with weekly WR1 upside.
Strategy: If you are unable to draft Williams, monitor his start to the season, and if he struggles again to produce, target him as a buy-low candidate in your home league to work a trade for him with the disgruntled manager.
Fantasy Stats Projection: 70 receptions, 1,100 yards, 7 TDs = 222 FP – WR14
Tier 2 – Rounds 6–7 – Starters
Rome Odunze – Chicago Bears – WR28
Rome Odunze was balling out through the first eight weeks of the 2025 NFL season. He was the WR14, scoring 108.3 FP and averaging 15.5 FPPG before suffering the now-infamous heel stress fracture in Week 9.
He returned in Week 10 and put up 20.6 FP, but was never the same. After three lackluster performances in Weeks 11-13, the Bears shut Odunze down for the remainder of the regular season. Disappointing ending to a promising season, finishing as WR40.
Fast forward to 2026, D.J. Moore is in Buffalo with Josh Allen, Luther Burden III has been declared the new Amon-Ra St. Brown by Ben Johnson and is being drafted as WR23. Meanwhile, Rome Odunze is just twisting in the Chi-town wind, being drafted as WR28. Woof!
I love Burden III, but his ADP is like Snoop Dog; it gets higher every day. Odunze is a clear value that’s poised to be a staggeringly clear value if his heel can hold up for most of the season. Odunze was WR14 last season with D.J. Moore and with only a 15.7% target share.
The loss of D.J. Moore should present an opportunity for Odunze to increase his target share in a Ben Johnson offense that ranked 5th in total EPA last season. Caleb Williams has another year of maturity and shared with reporters that “Rome looked like Rome,” confirming the receiver is moving explosively, running routes sharply, and looking fully healthy.
Matt Harmon of Reception Perception dropped Odunze’s Profile with a fire emoji after it! According to Harmon:
- 76.1% success rate vs. man coverage
- 78% success rate vs. zone
- 80.6 success vs. press (93rd percentile)
Harmon goes a step further and says, “Odunze can easily resume the breakout pace he showed early last season if healthy, and even take another step if he cleans up a few areas of his game.”
Verdict: I’m making Rome Odunze my WR2 Theory cover this year! I’m all-in, baby!! Show me the Odunze!!
Fantasy Stats Projection: 75 receptions, 1,000 yards, 8 TDs = 223 FP – WR13
Parker Washington – Jacksonville Jaguars – WR33
Last year I swung and missed on Travis Hunter. It happens. But, after reviewing the processes, I had accurately identified the upside in Liam Cohen’s new Jaguars’ offensive scheme; I just had not anticipated Brian Thomas Jr. to fall flat, for the Jaguars to trade for Jacobi Meyers, and then have Parker Washington emerge from literal dust to lead the Jags’ WR corps in receiving touchdowns and fantasy points.
Duh!! How did I miss it? Anyway, Parker Washington is the truth and is currently being drafted as the WR33, one spot after Brian Thomas Jr., who is WR32. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this order flip by the time all the training camp hype filters down into your home league drafts.
Both of these WRs are undervalued in this high-passing-volume offense. One of them will slip. Oh, and Jacobi Meyers is currently a steal at (GASPS) WR47. He finished last season (after being traded for mid-season, mind you) as WR32 to Washington’s WR27.
Cohen’s offense is just getting started. The offensive expectations are high for this group after Trevor Lawrence ended the last seven games of the season throwing for 20 touchdowns. Lawrence finally lived up to the expectations, finishing as QB4 last season. The future is bright in Jacksonville.
Takeaway: If you do not draft at least one Jacksonville Jaguars’ wide receiver, you are doing it 100% wrong.
Fantasy Stats Projection: 70 receptions, 900 yards, 6 TDs = 196 FP – WR36
Jordan Tyson – New Orleans Saints – WR35
Jordan Tyson is the new first-round rookie stud wide receiver the New Orleans Saints drafted 8th overall, and he’s already turning heads in Saints’ training camp. WR34 is a bit expensive on face value for a rookie, but as mentioned previously, rookie wide receivers with speed and play-making upside should be hoarded.
Tyson avoided the PUP list and has been a full participant during the start of the Saints’ training camp. According to early reports, Tyson has been a nightmare for defenders, using his combination of speed and size (6’2”, 205lbs) to create leverage and space for his routes.
Tyler Shough’s accession to Saints’ starting quarterback had a bumpy start, but a late-season surge saw him dramatically improve his passing yards per game, touchdowns, and passing accuracy. The Saints won four of their last five games to end the season and head into 2026 in a positive offensive direction, with no more Taysom Hill to worry about.
Tyson has an opportunity to immediately see between a 15-20% target share, which should slot him in for close to 90 targets. Sign me up, but at a discount. I’m expecting him to slip a little in home league drafts, hopefully to the middle of the eighth round, which would be a steal.
Fat Tuesday or Ash Wednesday? A bit of both to start the season, with Tyson finding his midseason stride as a valuable weapon in the Saints’ offense. I’m expecting him to slip a little in home league drafts, hopefully to the middle of the eighth round or early ninth. Hopefully training camp hype simmers down, and so does his ADP.
Fantasy Stats Projection: 60 receptions, 900 yards, 6 TDs = 186 FP – WR38
Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos – WR36
Last year the sweet spot for WR2 Theory was WR24-36. George Pickens, Jameson Williams, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle were all just hanging around in rounds 5-6. Courtland Sutton was there too. He finished as WR13, right behind Jameson Williams.
Now Sutton has been pushed down to the middle of the seventh round after the Denver Broncos traded a 2026 first and a third-round pick for Jaylen Waddle in the offseason. Last season, Troy Franklin scored 177 FP in the WR2 role and finished the season as overall WR31 in PPR fantasy. Sutton has more upside and a proven track record of scoring over 215 FP multiple seasons. WR36 is a low price to pay for a WR that has been a solid overall WR2 his last two seasons with Bo Nix at the helm.
Sutton just signed a four-year $92 million contract extension last summer, so he’s locked in until 2029. I anticipate Sutton and Waddle to swap WR1 and WR2 roles throughout the season, with Waddle running more from the slot and the Z receiver role, leaving Sutton the downfield and X route runner.
Balls-to-the-Walls: I’m targeting Sutton in the seventh round, and if he slips to the eighth round, I’m winning it all!
Fantasy Stats Projection: 70 receptions, 900 yards, 8 TDs = 214 FP – WR25
Quentin Johnston – LA Chargers – WR38
Quentin Johnston was WR4 at the end of Week 4 last year. He averaged 19.9 FP, with 37 receptions and four touchdowns. The greatest “Sell High” in fantasy football history, because after beginning in Week 5, he took a nosedive and finished the season as WR34, scoring 14 or more points only three more times in the remaining 13 weeks.
It was feast or famine for the Chargers’ wide receivers last season. Ladd McConkey scored less than 10 FP eight times last season; Johnston had seven occasions he scored 11 or less fantasy points, including two 0.0s, and one 2.8 FP performance.
Good news is that Justin Herbert is in love with Madison Beer, the freshly engaged and cuddling all over Chargers’ training camp. A happy quarterback loves the deep ball, because ladies love the deep ball, so I expect a Madison Beer bump for Johnston this season.
All Madison Beer jokes aside, Johnston’s 5th-year option was exercised by the Chargers in the offseason, signaling they value his field-stretching role in their offense. His 14.4 YPR led Chargers wide receivers in 2025, and the team plans to deploy him in the same role in 2026.
Currently, Johnston is being drafted in the WR38-40 range in fantasy leagues. I think he finishes the season in the WR25 range, making him a great WR2 value for you to snag in the 8th/9th round of your drafts.
Verdict: I’m HarBOLD on Quentin Johnston’s 2026 breakout into WR2 territory. I just hope Madison Beer is ready for all the deep balls.
Fantasy Stats Projection: 70 receptions, 900 yards, 7 TDs = 203 FP – WR32
Tier 3 – Rounds 8 – 11 – Flex Options
Michael Pittman – Pittsburgh Steelers – WR40
The Pittsburgh Steelers traded a 6th-round draft pick this past offseason to the Indianapolis Colts for Michael Pittman. He joins a Steelers’ wide receiving corps that boasts perennial underachiever DK Metcalf, Roman “Not Rainn” Wilson, and Alabama rookie Germie Bernard. Who, I wonder, if DK Metcalf had invited over for an orgy yet?
Helmed by Aaron “I’m My Own Doctor” Rodgers, the Steelers remind me of your uncle at the bar having one last night out with his friends before he gets the shit kicked out of him at the end the night in a bloody cursing mess before the cops haul him off to sleep it off and cry himself to retirement as he sobers up to his broken body and mind confused.
All that to say, “Pittman on Paper” as WR40 looks like a lock to smash his ADP, which is only five spots behind DK Metcalf, who sits at WR35. Arthur Smith has departed to ruin the Ohio State offense, which leaves Big Mike McCarthy the new sheriff in town, and he’s the kind of old-school sheriff that’s allowed a few knock-down drag-out bar fights in his day.
As Rodgers seeks to rekindle his former youth and flames out in a ball of “Unc Glory” passing until his arm falls off or a blitzing vaccinated linebacker decapitates him, I expect Pittman to feast in the intermediate zone, picking up lots of quick passes from Unc Rodgers as he scrambles for his life away from the youths who want to end his career. It’s going to be fun to watch!
The Black and the Yellow of it all is that I expect Pittman to get close to 110 targets and put up between 185-195 FP in 2026. His eighth-round ADP may not last; as of writing this article, Matt Harmon has Pittman ranked one spot above DK Metcalf.
Verdict: Adjust the ranks and overlook Michael Pittman in Pittsburgh to your peril, pugnacious punks. Apologies, almost accidentally got carried away with allegorical alliteration.
Fantasy Stats Projection: 75 receptions, 850 yards, 7 TDs = 202 FP – WR33
Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR41
Chris “WR2 Theory OG” Godwin is finally healthy and entering his 10th season ready to prove himself all over again. At least that’s the resounding message plastered all over his early training camp performances with Baker “Pay The Man His Money” Mayfield finding him all over the field.
The departure of longtime running mate Mike Evans has left a void in the Buccaneers’ offense, and besides more cowbell, the only thing we all want more of is Rod God Chriswin (shoutout Bo McBrayer for the best nickname in sports).
You all don’t need me to remind you of how good Godwin is when he is healthy. The problem, of course, is that he has not been healthy, missing most of the 2024 season and the start of the 2025 season, recovering from severe left ankle dislocation and ligament damage suffered in October 2024. He returned in 2025 and averaged 14.2 FP in the last six games of the season. He still knows how to find the holes in coverage. He’s seen it all by now and still has the passion and fire to be successful.
As mentioned, the training camp news has been exactly what you want to hear regarding a veteran wide receiver who will be leaned on as his quarterback’s safety valve to keep the sticks moving. I’m comfortable drafting him in the eighth/ninth round this year and riding him until the wheels fall off, which they probably will.
Godwin Gameplan: Draft Chris Godwin and shine on you beautiful diamond, but be ready to pilfer his replacement off of waivers, Jalen McMillan, when/if he gets nicked up.
Fantasy Stats Projection: 80 receptions, 800 yards, 8 TDs = 208 FP – WR31
Michael Wilson – Arizona Cardinals – WR42
Last season, Michael Wilson was being drafted as WR78 and was on my list of late-round wide receivers who fit the WR2 Theory profile model. Through the first 10 weeks of the 2025 season, Wilson ranked as WR79, averaging 5.5 FPPG.
The last eight weeks of the season, he was overall WR2 and averaged 21.2 FPPG. A total Jekyll and Hyde season for Wilson and the best ever “Buy Low Candidate” in the history of fantasy football.
The question for 2026 becomes, which wide receiver is going to show up this season? The official ADP prognosticators are currently torn, drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. as WR31 in the middle of round six, and waiting on Wilson until WR42 at the end of round eight.
I’m not reading anything into the Harrison Jr. drops flooding Twitter early in training camp. I think both Wilson, Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride can all coexist in a Cardinals offense that will need to score points to keep up with the points their defense is freely giving away.
Arizona Rising: I love grabbing Wilson at the 8/9 turn, but don’t be surprised that his flashy finish last season didn’t mint some true believers you might have to contend with. His ADP will be like the heat in Arizona this summer.
Fantasy Stats Projection: 75 receptions, 900 yards, 6 TDS = 201 FP – WR35
Josh Downs – Indianapolis Colts – WR43
The Indianapolis Colts traded away Michael Pittman for a ham sandwich and signed Alec Pierce to a 4-year contract extension worth $116 million. Pierce had ankle surgery in March and is currently on the PUP list to start Colts’ training camp. There’s optimism that he will be ready for the start of the season, but for now there is Josh Downs.
Oh, and there is Daniel Jones too, who has been practicing after coming off of the Achilles injury suffered in Week 14 of last season. We all remember Philip Rivers unretiring so he could secretly get healthcare for his 69 children and almost beat the Seahawks.
Anyway, back to Josh Downs. He’s just quietly sitting at the start of the ninth round, minding his own business, about to outproduce his ADP, which may or may not be a myth unless you are drafting with a Josh Downs truther, and then you have no chance at drafting him, because to him it is myth.
Don’t be afraid to draft Downs, as the drum beats start to get louder that Alec Pierce is close to returning; some will forget him altogether. You will know what to do.
Fantasy Stats Projection: 80 receptions, 900 yards, 6 touchdowns = 206 FP – WR33
Tier 4 – Depth – WR4 Potential – Roster Depth with Upside
Khalil Shakir – Buffalo – WR52
The Bills are opening a new stadium this fall with a brand new flashy WR1 in D.J. Moore, now back with Joe Brady, who served as the offensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers during the 2020 and 2021 seasons. In those seasons, Brady fed Moore 118 and 163 targets, which led Moore to produce 211 and 237 FP.
This reunion with Brady has left Khalil Shakir out in the cold, getting drafted at the end of the 11th round. I’m a huge fan of Moore, but entering his ninth season, I’m not buying the gap between him and Shakir. They finished back-to-back last year as WR35 and WR36. Both dogs should be able to eat in the offense.
My projections for Moore have him finishing in the WR25 range; his current ADP is WR26. Shakir has the opportunity to mash his ADP and jump into the WR40 range given Brady’s commitment to getting all his receivers touches and spreading the ball around based on the game plan and the matchups.
Shakir running underneath in the slot is a matchup I like. During the 2025 NFL season, Shakir ran approximately 296 slot routes, making up about 70.2% of his total 422 routes run. Moore should be doubled and eat up the safeties, leaving the middle of the field wide open for Shakir. Yes! Yes! Yes!
“Sign me up, Shakir” painted across my chest in the subzero Buffalo winter snowstorm, I’ll do it! I swear. Wait..I’m being told the Bills’ new stadium is a freaking dome! DAGGERS!!!
Fantasy Stats Projection: 75 receptions, 820 yards, 6 touchdowns = 193 FP – WR35
Jayden Higgins – Houston Texans – WR53
Jayden Higgins’ rookie season was meh. He finished as the overall WR47, after being drafted in the WR4 range later in drafts. He clogged the bench most of the season, failing to score 10 fantasy points in 11 games. He scored 16.8 FP in week 17, his best performance of the season, but overall wasn’t a fantasy factor.
Not surprisingly, this summer Higgins’ ADP is in the same range as last season, WR50-55. Drafters don’t believe in Higgins’ potential improvement this season despite a few flashes, including the 75-yard catch, run, and touchdown in Week 17.
One person who doesn’t agree with his current ADP is me, and I am not alone. Higgins’ running mate Nico Collins was asked about the second-year wideout and said, “That boy a dog. Got all the tools in the world. Dude is gonna be the face of this franchise one year. His playmaking ability, his size, he got all the tools in the world”
Brett Whitefield of Fantasy Points had this to say about Higgins: “I think Jayden Higgins is probably the most underrated route runner in the league.” High praise for the second-year player that is currently a free square when drafting, available in the 11th/12th round.
I chronicled Higgins upside in last year’s WR2 Theory, saying then:
“Higgins Player Profiler comp is Allen Robinson. Yes. That Allen Robinson. Higgins has the NFL wide receiver hardware. He stands 6’4″ and weighs 215lbs. He’s also only 21 years old, so he’s on the rise.”
Wide receivers are BIGGER in Texas: It won’t cost you anything more than a bench spot to draft him. Thank me later.
Fantasy Stats Projection: 60 receptions, 800 yards, 7 TDs = 182 FP – WR38
Jalen Coker – Carolina Panthers – WR54
Jalen Coker flashed in his rookie season, notching four games scoring over 11 FP, including performances of 17.4, 16.7, and 14 FP. The Cokeheads celebrated all over Twitter.
Oh, I’m sorry, you didn’t know? Jalen Coker has his own fanboy club on Twitter that affectionately refers to themselves as “Cokeheads.” I’m pretty sure that Ian Hartitz is their leader and they celebrate every catch like it’s the first time. A touchdown, forget about it. Memes for days, like they cannot stop…
Back to real life, the Panthers are down both of their starting offensive tackles, which is bad. I expect short, quick passes, and in PPR leagues all those little receptions add up. I’m projecting fewer downfield routes and more intermediate and short routes for all Panthers wide receivers until the offensive line stabilizes.
Look for the Panthers to give Coker opportunities to win off the line. His 98th percentile burst score and 97th percentile catch radius have him comped to Michael Wilson and Michael Crabtree in Player Profiler. All together in a Borat voice, “I like” and so do you. Alright, hard transition.
Unfortunately, the Panthers will be without rookie wideout Chris Brazzell II, who, according to NFL.com:
“will miss the entire season after suffering a torn LCL in his knee. The Carolina Panthers rookie wide receiver is scheduled to undergo season-ending surgery and has been placed on injured reserve.”
Camp injuries and early-season injuries create opportunities for players to emerge and take on larger roles in their respective offenses. Coker will benefit from increased target share and routes run per game this season, running alongside Tetairoa McMillan in two-wide receiver sets for the Panthers.
Currently being drafted in the WR50-55 range, Coker slides into your bench free around the turn between rounds 11-12. It might take a few weeks for the Panthers’ offense to find their footing, but look for a Coker breakout sooner rather than later. There’s always room for more Cokeheads!!
Fantasy Stats Projection: 60 receptions, 750 yards, 6 TDs = 170 FP – WR40 Range
Stefon Diggs – Washington Commanders – WR55
The news just dropped while I was typing this article that Stefon Diggs has been signed to a one-year deal by the Washington Commanders. I absolutely love this for Jayden Daniels and for the Commanders Offense in 2026.
Accoridng to Warren Sharp, “The Commanders had the 5th highest rate of wide receiver error in 2025. Stefon Diggs had the number one best catch rate of any wide receiver. Diggs had the 5th highest slot target rate in the NFL last year and the Commanders throw to the slot at the 5th highest rate of any NFL team.”
These numbers are sure to be adjusted this season, but the overall picture Sharp paints is clear. The Commanders needed a reilable slot receiver in their offense and now they have found one of the best in Stefon Diggs. A match made in fantasy heaven we hope.
Diggs excelled last season in New England, finishing as overall WR17 in fantasy for wide receivers. He had 85 receptions and over 1,000 yards receiving for the seventh time in his career. All this while returning from a torn ACL at 32 years of age. These Maryland Men are just built different.
I love Diggs in this role in the Commanders’ offense this season and will be tartgetting him in later rounds of my fantasy drafts. It’s going to be hard in the home league to snag him, given our proximity to the DMV and the collective love for Stefon Diggs. Terp for Life.
Fantasy Stats Projection: 75 receptions, 900 yards, 5 touchdowns = 195 FP WR34
Rashid Shaheed – Seattle Seahawks – WR56
I wrote about Rashid Shaheed last year when he was a New Orleans Saint and was being drafted as the overall WR53. Shaheed was traded mid-season to the Seattle Seahawks, where he was WR3 behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp.
In 15 games played with Chris Olave in 2024-2025, Shaheed averaged 57 YPG receiving and was overall WR38. Last season, even though he was traded, he still managed to finish the regular season WR39 overall. With a full training camp this offseaon, Shaheed and Seahawks’ Super Bowl winning quarterback Sam Darnold
Hayden Winks, now of Yahoo Fantasy, is sceptical of Shaheed being a WR4 in fantasy this season, but Nimble with Numbers is not. The offense was completely lopsided last season with JSN garnering a ridiculous 33.9% target share. The law of regression is incoming, and drafters already know this and are drafting JSN as the WR3 this season behind, Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua.
Matthew Berry’s “Little Cooper Kupp” is now 33 years old, which is like 69 wide receiver years. Though he was one the darling poster child for WR2 Theory, sadly now he is washed for fantasy. Kupp and is an underneath route runner, compared to Shaheed whose speed allows him to get open further down field.
I don’t expect JSN to fall off this year, but I do expect the ADP gap to considerably narrow down from where they currently are beging drafted as WR3 and WR53 come the end of the season. I ecpect Shaheed’s yards per catch to rebound from 11.6 last season, closer to the 15-17 range he produced while playing in New Orleans.
Shaheed is currently a 12 round pick, easily available in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. Just make sure that Cooterdoodle isn’t in your fantasy league because you aren’t going to get him cheap. Apparently her league is all about kick returner points. LOL
If anything happens to JSN (crosses heart, looks to the heavens) Shaheed is going to eat!
Fantasy Stats Projection: 65 receptions, 800 yards, 4 TDS = 169 – WR45
Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers – WR57
The San Francisco 49ers wide receiver room looked stacked at the start of training camp. Mike Evans signed, Ricky Pearsall back, Christian Kirk signed, and rookie De’Zhaun Stribling drafted. All were no match for the Eletrical Substation. Pearsall’s PCL never healed from last season (looking at you Electrical Substation). Mike “Soft Tissue” Evans has a soft tissue issue with his quad, meanwhile the rookie Stribling is dealing with a hamstring issue, and Christian Kirk has been out of 49ers training camp with a calf strain.
The Electrical Substation grows more powerful by the minute. If only the 49ers had a robust unbreakable RB like wideout who could be their Iron Man to the Substations’ Thanos.
Enter, Deebo “Not Fat Anymore” Samuel, who looks great, having noticably slimmed down from last season with the Washington Commanders. Currently, he’s the only starting wide receiver the 49ers have on their depth chart. It’s just him.
Oh, did I mention that big play tight end George “Please Let Us Play on Grass” Kittle is on the PUP list to start the season as he recovers from a torn right Achilles tendon he suffered during the NFC Wild Card playoff game on January 11th of this year, 2026, like seven months ago.
Despite reports of his positive rapid rehab progress in training camp, there is no guarantee that Kittle or any of these other wide receivers will be healthy to start the NFL season.
Do you know who is healthy? Deebo! It’s Deebo Szn again!!!
Fantasy Stats Projection: 70 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TDs = 185 FP WR36
Tier 5 – Stashes – WR5 Potential – Bye Week and Injury Depth
All of the following wide receivers are worth monitoring in training camp and into the regular season. The rookies will probably start off slow, but there are opportunities and paths to fantasy relevance as the season unfolds. I wish I had time to write about them all, but 7,500 words is more than anyone wants to read. Explore and project your own WR2 Theory for these guys and see where it leads.
Denzel Boston – Cleveland Browns – WR60
Bro is balling out according to all training camp reports. The only issue is the quarterback situation is bad to worse with Shedeur Sanders and DeShaun Watson the two best options at quarterback. He will be an early wavier wire pickup, if someone does not draft him in your league.
Tre Tucker – Las Vegas Raiders – WR61
Tre Tucker was drafted in the 120s last year and finished the season WR38. Maybe I should have written more about him, or maybe I am just keeping him for myself so I can have something nice for a change.
Cyrus Allen – Kansas City Chiefs – WR80
Currently running with the first team Kansas City offense and with comps to a young Stefon Diggs, the future appears to be closer to now for Cyrus Allen. His ADP will be skyrocketing if the training camp rumblings transitions into pre-season success. Make sure you keep updated on his progress and what the Chiefs role for him looks like.
Dontayvion Wicks – Philadelphia Eagles – WR89
I wanted to include Makai Lemon in WR2Theory this year, but his training camp hamstring injury has himsidelines, missing valuable reps with the Eagles first team offense. I think that he eventually bounces back, but in the early season it looks like it will be much hyped and second time being mentioned in WR2 Theory, Dontayvion Wicks. This situation will remain fluid all season, so keep you notifications on for Eagles Twitter and thank God everyday you aren’t an Eagles’ fan.
MORE TO COME!!
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What are the fantasy experts saying about WR2 Theory?
WR2 Theory’s Rotoviz Peer Review
Shout out to Jeff Matson from Rotoviz. He took the time earlier this offseason to write a feature article showcasing WR2 Theory. He tested whether it’s a viable strategy for finding wide receiver value in your fantasy drafts. The results did not disappoint. Jeff writes:
“Next, I went back and pulled the data from 2022 to confirm this theory. In that year, the results were less pronounced. However, they confirmed that drafting a young WR2 or WR3 on a high-powered offense is optimal. This strategy is the best way to find potential sleepers. WR2 Theory in 2022 identified valuable sleepers such as DeVonta Smith and Brandon Aiyuk. It’s not just related to rookies. Chris Godwin also met this criteria. He was drafted as WR27 and ended up as WR11 in his sixth (age 26) season behind 29-year-old Mike Evans.”
Jeff has seen the light, and he has the data to back it up in his own handy charts. He identifies the most important trend of them all, targeting young WR2s on high-passing-volume offenses. I said it wasn’t football rocket science earlier. However, it is math. It’s an edge that not many fantasy footballers have realized yet. This edge is ripe to be exploited, particularly in home league formats.
Nimble w/Numbers 