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NFL Week 1
Welcome to NFL Week 1! Excited to share all my “Nimble GPP” content with you all this year. Each week I will help you build the best GPP lineups by providing you the building blocks at each skill position by identifying “High Priced”, “Mid-Range”, and “Value.” The play represents the player that I predict for the most upside at their price range. Mix and match the players you are high on and build your optimal lineup. If you are interested in NIMBLE GPP Lineups or Bo GPP Lineups, click the links for weekly lineups.
High Priced Quarterback
GPP – Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – $7,600
According to PFF, Kyler Murray has a 39% Passing advantage this week against the Tennesse Titans. Last season the Titans defense was ranked second to last overall, giving up over 21 fantasy points per game. Murray is a smart dynamic playmaker who added two weapons to his arsenal in A.J. Green and Rondale Moore. DeAndre Hopkins is still around as well. My favorite stack is Murray and Moore at only $10,600.
GPP – Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles – $6,400
The Falcons ranked 31st against the quarterback position in 2020, giving up a meaty 23.3 points per game. Unless first-round pick Kyle Pitts plans on playing both ways, the Falcons will continue to struggle to stop opposing QBs. This is great news for semi-rookie Jalen Hurts, who is starting his first full season as Eagle’s starting quarterback. The Falcons conceded 40 touchdowns to quarterbacks last year. Look for Hurts to carve them up for two scores through the air and at least one rushing in this defense optional matchup.
GPP – Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers – $5,000
It might be too early to anoint him “Slinging Sammy Darnold” but don’t be surprised if you hear it whispered in his sleep by Jordan Vanek after this game against the 32nd ranked New York Jets secondary. If you are going to pay down at quarterback, Darnold presents the greatest upside for your money. RuntheSims.com placed his points per dollar value at 3.87 this week.
Christian McCaffery’s return should provide players with a built-in floor and presents some very interesting game stacking options, including stacking Darnold, CMC, and D.J. Moore or even Terrace Marshall.
High Priced Runningback
GPP – Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints – $8,600
Alvin Kamara averaged over 33 points per game in the eight games he’s played in without Michael Thomas on the field. Currently, he’s rostered on 20% of DraftKings Main Slate GPP rosters, which is the highest of all running backs. I’m comfortable with eating the chalk on this Kamara because his upside is slate-breaking.
GPP – James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,400
James Robinson Szn. Oh, you wanted some analysis? I see. How about this. The Texans are terrible and will win you money all season if you load up against them. Seriously, the Texans punted on defense when they signed their entire squad to one-year deals. On the other hand, the unfortunate injury to Travis Etienne opens the door for James Robinson to once again be the dominant rushing and pass catcher in the Jacksonville Jaguars’ backfield.
GPP – Javonte Willaims, Denver Broncos – $4,000
Someone needs to tell DraftKings that Javonte Williams is the running back that should be priced up in the Broncos backfield this week instead of at $5,300. I’m mean, I’m not going to tell them. I am going to exploit it for my own monetary gain and trust that some other good soul will inform them of their error. See how this works?
High Priced Wide Receiver
GPP – Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons – $7,900
Calvin Ridley is a baller and he’s about to ball out this week against the Philadelphia Eagles. PFF and RuntheSims.com both rank Ridley as one of their top receiving option for Week 1, so it’s just not me. Ridley has been close to unstoppable in the 19 previous games he’s been fed eight or more targets. He’s scored 16 touchdowns. Let me repeat that. He has scored 16 touchdowns in 19 games with eight or more targets. The chances are very high that Ridely scores at least one touchdown, which means his chances of scoring two are better than almost everyone else’s.
Mid-Range Wide Receiver
GPP – D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers – $6,100
D.J. Moore might be the best receiver play all week on DraftKings. PFF predicts that Moore with the fourth-best cornerback matchup for Week 1. Sam Darnold will be itching to prove the Jets wrong in this redemption/revenge contest. Moore amassed close to 1,200 yards on under 70 receptions in 2020. He’s an incredible route runner and posses a nightmare scenario for new Jets’ head coach Robert Selah. With only four touchdowns in all of 2020, Moore is set to break out this season, don’t be surprised if he scored twice in this one.
Value Wide Receiver
GPP – Elijah Moore, New York Jets – $3,000
Jamison Crowder is out Week 1, still recovering from COVID-19, which means that New York Jets’ second-round pick Elijah Moore will get his first NFL start alongside his fellow rookie Zach Wilson. Moore could end up facing off against his former Ole Miss teammate Myles Hartsfield when he lines up in the slot. This matchup favors the speedy Moore and could be the key that unlocks the GPP slate. Currently, he is only be rostered on 14% of DraftKings Main Slate GPP lineups.
High Priced Tight End
GPP – Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – $8,300
Travis Kelce’s matchup advantage over Cleveland Browns’ linebacker Owusu-Koramoah is 65% according to PFF. Kelce’s $8,300 price tag is still underpriced according to his upside and GPP is all about chasing that upside. The game script that I am predicting is death by a thousand passes to Kelce in the middle of the field and a stat line of 9 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown.
Mid-Range Tight End
GPP – Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – $4,400
Hard to ask for a better NFL debut matchup for Kyle Pitts than the Philadelphia Eagles. Last season the Eagles ranked 25th against the tight end position, giving up eight touchdowns (three in Tyler Higbee in Week 2) and over 14 points per game.
K’Von Wallace will be the primary safety assigned to stop Pitts on Sunday. Wallace stands 5’11” and Pitts a mear 6’6″, seven inches taller. The tallest defender Pitts might face is 6’2″ Linebacker, Alex Singleton. This is the definition of a mismatch and I want all of it. Pitts will never be this cheap again. Currently, he is being rostered in only 20% of the DraftKings GPP Main Slate entries. He’s a smash or my Flex.
Value Tight End
GPP – Donald Parham, Los Angeles Chargers – $3,100
According to PFF, the Chargers have a plus matchup this week at the tight end position against Jon Bostic. Parham scored three times in 2020. I expect him to score at least five touchdowns this season, possibly picking up his first this week against Washington.