Happy 5th anniversary to the WR2 Theory!!
It doesn’t take a football rocket scientist to surmise NFL wide receivers are SOOOOO HOT RIGHT NOW!! Like, Hansel Levels of Fahrenheit (please excuse the Zoolander references throughout this article, I’m old.) WRs have completely overtaken the NFL offensive landscape, leading to a new era of fantasy football I have coined “BIG WR” Don’t believe me yet? You will soon enough.
In 2023, nine wide receivers finished in the top 12 of PPR leagues, impressively claiming four of the top five places. Only running backs CMC, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne even cracked the top 12. BIG RB truthers have gone into hiding. This is analytics folks.
Running backs have historically dominated the first-round of fantasy drafts. Hell, I’m old enough to remember in 2021 when Davante Adams was the ONLY wide Receiver drafted in the opening round of PPR leagues. In 2022 there were five wide receivers drafted in round one and then last season there were six wide receivers drafted in the top 12 picks.
According to trending 4FOR4 ADP data, eight wide receivers are currently being drafted in the first round of PPR leagues. Wide receivers appear to have completely taken over fantasy football. Hell, Netflix even gave them their own show for goodness’ sake! I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!!
With everyone head over runaway heals for wide receivers, the fantasy football landscape has changed faster than you can say ‘Blue Steel’ or ‘Le Tigre.” Up is down, down is up. Underdog Bros are hyper-hoarding wide receivers while ZeroRB truthers dominate the Twitter hellscape micro-edging as they force their fragility models down our throats screaming “GIVE ME CHRIS OLAVE OR GIVE ME DEATH!”
Honestly, it can be a lot to process. If only an experienced wide receiver sherpa could lead you through all the data, metrics, and trends in this ever-changing fantasy football landscape. Someone who saw the writing on the chat wall four years ago and put their nose to the grindstone and created their own WR2 Theory, laying out the formula for unearthing wide receiver value in your fantasy football drafts and dominating your league mates. If only…
Actually….come to think of it. I might know a guy who can get you in. Just be cool. Act natural. Take whatever is given to you and whatever you do, don’t look Hansel directly in the eyes.
Too late.
WR2 Theory, in a nutshell, is that fantasy footballers overvalue the WR1’s on any given team and undervalue the WR2’s. Last season, Puka Nacua, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk (second season in a row), Jordan Addison, George Pickens, and Courtland Sutton were all drafted as the WR2 on their team. Each was projected by fantasy drafters to finish outside the top 28. They finished as the overall WR4, WR7, WR14, WR23, WR30, and WR35 respectively.
This isn’t a one-off trend from just last season either. I have a decade’s worth of data that points out the poor wide receiver prediction skills of fantasy drafters. For a long time, there’s been a plethora of potential wide receiver value that’s just waiting to be taken advantage of during drafts. It’s not just WR2’s. WR3’s and WR4’s are also undervalued and have the potential to return substantial value to drafters.
If you know what to look for, you can strategically choose players with massive upside to build a fantasy team that actually has a chance to compete for a fantasy championship. Time to adjust the ranks on how we think about wide receiver value in fantasy drafts. But first we brag.
The Championships
Over the last four years, I have honed and utilized my WR2 Theory drafting strategy to win 12 fantasy football leagues and most importantly, thousands of dollars in prize money. In the process, I’ve been beating the likes of International ZeroRb truther and “Wide Reciever Whisperer” Denny “Never Been Owned” Carter from NBC Sports and Rotoworld, FantasyPros perennial Top10 ranker Joe Bond from Fantasy Six Pack, the connoisseur of culinary delicacies, the one and only Sultan of Spicy hot takes himself, Bo McBrayer of HotboxBatch fame, my favorite Canton Compadre Jorge Martin from Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life and of course my podcast partner from the FFMillionaires, and by far the greatest fantasy football player I’ve ever competed against in real life, Mike “Cash” Collins.
The success has been sweet and has solidified WR2 Theory as an advantageous drafting strategy that you can use with multiple other strategies including value-based, HeroRB, Late Round QB, TE-heavy, sleepers, running QB, and ZeroRB. It works with them all!
I’ll review the history of WR2 Theory, describe how I assess potential WR2s every season, and then argue for “why” and explain “how” WR2 Theory should be used in this year’s fantasy football drafts.
WR2 Theory Origin Story
Everyone loves a good origin story. If you don’t, just scroll past to get to the analytics.
Four years ago WR2 Theory was officially launched into the fantasy football ether. If you missed the origin story, WR2 Theory’s roots can be traced to a brief but meaningful Twitter exchange with JJ Zachariason in February 2020. JJ posted a tweet asking for questions for his Late-Round Podcast mailbag. All the stars aligned as I stumbled upon it and posted a question I had been mulling over the last few seasons. Simply put, I wanted to know how accurately we (as the fantasy community) were at successfully predicting which wide receiver finished the season as the WR1 on their own team. I was sure that this question had already been answered by fantasy football analysts and if JJ could just kindly push me in the right direction, I could get that info and get on with winning all my leagues….in February….don’t judge me.
After talking to JJ, it quickly became apparent that the easy answers I was seeking were not readily available to be effortlessly plucked from the fantasy football tree of knowledge. If my question was going to be answered, I was gonna need to take the fantasy stats into my own hands. I started immediately and haven’t looked back!!!
My Process
I began by pouring over the last 10 seasons of WR ADP data and then compared it to the end-of-the-season wide receiver rankings. The data trend I found was staggering. Every season 30-40% of wide receivers who are drafted as the WR1 on their team are outperformed by a teammate. Only 22 of the 32 (69%) of the WR1s drafted last year actually finished as the WR1 on their own team.
Next, I filtered that data through the vacated targets tool to see if there was a correlation between breakout WRs and vacated targets. Here is a list of last season’s top vacated targets list.
Five of the nine teams (55.5%) had a wide receiver who was drafted as the WR2 or the WR3 and finished as the WR1 on their team. Two of the teams that didn’t have a breakout WR2, the Detroit Lions and the Arizona Cardinals, had young tight ends who had breakout seasons. Sam LaPorta finished at overall TE1 and Trey McBride as TE7. Following the vacated targets paid off if you strategically locked into these offenses last season.
After reviewing the vacated targets data, next I studied the team-specific factors and circumstances to identify and document the conditions that led to the shift in the WR value for each team. Each team had its own unique set of circumstances that led to the upheaval of the WR1. Injuries, rookie emergence, improved quarterback play,
Injuries: Injuries, like Justin Jefferson’s and Cooper Kupp’s, immediately created an opportunity for Jordan Addison’s and Puca Nacua’s accession last season. Every season wide receivers get hurt, which instantly elevates the WR2 on the team into the WR1 role. You never want to plan for a player to get injured, but if you understand that 100% of the NFL will get injured at some point, it’s helpful to see where the value lies in case something does happen to the WR1.
Rookie Power: Demario “Pop” Douglas shelving JuJu Smith-Schuster last season is an example of a rookie who unseated the starter and never looked back. Rashee Rice was a rookie who was drafted in the back half of the draft and found a role in the Chiefs’ offense as the slot receiver. Jayden Reed was another example of a wide receiver who was drafted as the WR3 on his team and finished as the WR1.
QB Level Up: The improved QB play of Jordan Love lifted the whole of the Packers’ receiving corps and produced two top 36 wide receivers in Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs who were drafted 76th and 57th, respectively, but more like disrespectfully. It turns out after they gobbled up 190 of the Packers 258 available targets heading into 2023. Oh, and I predicted Doubs’ breakout last season in my 4th edition of WR2 Theory. So there’s that.
As I dug further into the data, I started to see a pattern emerge. Each year there are wide receivers that are routinely undervalued and outperform their ADP. In 2021, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, Darnell Mooney, and Christian Kirk, were all drafted as the WR2 on their respective teams and finished as the WR1.
Again in 2022, Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk, Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson all were drafted as the respective WR2s on their teams and you already know how this ends, they finished as the WR1 on their teams.
2023 was no exception. Puka Nacua, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, George Pickens, Jordan Addison, and Courtland Sutton were all drafted as the WR2 on their respective teams and finished the WR1. Puka was a league winner and he basically went undrafted.
22 out of 32 WR1s drafted failed to meet or exceed their draft ADP. Only 10 WR1s returned value on investment. Drafters overpaid for all of the following WRs in 2023. Some marginally, some egregiously.
Several factors contribute to this massive misallocation of wide receiver value in fantasy drafts. Injuries, poor player performance, change in offensive personnel or scheme changes mid-season. The overall trend though points to the inflated overvalue of WR1s by fantasy footballers in general. Think about it as paying the WR1 tax on your draft purchase. The WR2s and WR3s are cheaper, possess less inherent risk, and have greater upside relative to their ADP, plus there’s no tax!
Since you don’t have to be Nimble with Numbers to see the discrepancy between consensus wide receiver ADP and true wide receiver value, the question then becomes, how do we identify the next WR2 to become a WR1 or the WR3 who will greatly outperform their ADP? And how do you avoid overpriced WR1s? You ask great questions. Let’s find out.
WR2 Theory’s Rotoviz Peer Review
Shout out to Jeff Matson from Rotoviz for taking the time earlier this offseason to write a feature article showcasing WR2 Theory and testing whether or not it’s a viable strategy for finding wide receiver value in your fantasy drafts. The results did not disappoint. Jeff writes:
“Next, I went back and pulled the data from 2022 to confirm this theory. In that year, the results were less pronounced but confirmed that the criteria of drafting young WR2 or WR3 on a high-powered offense is the best way to find potential sleepers. WR2 Theory in 2022 identified valuable sleepers such as DeVonta Smith and Brandon Aiyuk. It’s not just related to rookies either, as Chris Godwin met this criteria, being drafted as WR27 and ending up WR11 in his sixth (age 26) season behind 29-year-old Mike Evans.”
Jeff has seen the light and he has the data to back it up in his own handy charts. He identifies the most important trend of them all, targeting young WR2s on high passing volume offenses. I said it wasn’t football rocket science earlier, but it is math and it’s an edge that not many fantasy footballers have realized yet and is ripe to be exploited, particularly in home league formats.
WR2 Theory Criteria for Success
Every evaluation/prediction process needs criteria for success. I recently updated my evaluation process to include the following components;
Vacated/Available Targets: the target and air yards that are available in a given offense at the start of each season.
High Volume Passing Offenses: offenses that consistently/historically see an increased percentage of passing volume when compared to the league average.
Emerging Talent/Rookies: Second and third-year breakouts combined with rookie wide receivers immediately making a fantasy impact combined with aging veterans.
Vacated/Available Targets & Air Yards
Targets are always earned in any offense, but assessing the opportunities present in an offense before the season starts is a fruitful practice and provides a data-driven big-picture approach I’ve used to determine potential breakout wide receivers in the past.
Vacated air yards and target data are important data points I use to help me identify potential value in offenses and unearth WRs who fit into the WR2 Theory and have the potential to break if the ball bounces their way.
Here is the list of 2024 vacated targets brought to you by Justin Edwards from 4for4. I updated his data with color graphics and made it sortable and accessible here.
The Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Washington Commanders, Cincinnati Bengals, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have between 40-63% of their team targets up for grabs this year. There will be opportunities in these offenses and value for drafters who plan ahead.
Other teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, and Los Angeles Rams have clearly established wide receiver ranks that are more predictable. Either way, the data tells a story. The story of this year’s WR2s.
High-Volume Passing Offenses
High-volume passing offenses have always ruled the fantasy football streets. It is undeniable that the NFL has become a passing league. Last year seven teams featured at least two wide receivers who finished in the fantasy top 36.
Explosive Offenses: Over the last six years the following teams supported two top-36 WRs.
Offenses like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco, and Cincinnati Bengals are perennially churning out two wide receivers who are weekly starters on your fantasy team. Follow the trends. Which teams are projected to be the high-volume passing leaders in 2024? What rookies and emergent talent can you find in the later rounds? The hunt begins.
Emerging Talent/Rookies
For the longest time, the common-sense wisdom in redraft leagues had always been to wait on rookie wide receivers, who typically are unreliable and break out later on in year two or three. I remember my friend Fish drafting 8 rookies in 2019 and I thought the man had lost his mind. He did lose most of his early season matches, but I watched his team grow stronger and stronger until it was running on all cylinders at the end of the season. I learned from watching him. Rookies are good, just not that many on one team.
In 2020, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Chase Claypool turned that thinking on its head, with Jefferson finishing as a WR1 and Lamb and Claypool as WR2s. In 2021, Ja’Marr Chase scored over 300 fantasy points and Jaylen Waddle finished as the WR13, scoring 245 points.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonta Smith all elevated their game heading into their sophomore seasons. All three were being drafted outside the top 25 and all finished as top 10 wide receivers in 2022.
The 2022 & 2023 NFL wide receiver classes were stacked with talent and they did not disappoint. Here is the list of rookie and second-year WRs who finished in the top 40 in 2023 (bold indicates 2023 rookie).
Six rookie wide receivers cracked the top 40 last season. Don’t be afraid to take a few rookie wide receivers in the back half of your draft this year. The value of some of these wide receivers is criminal. Drafting all rookie wideouts in 2023 would have been a winning strategy with Puka Nacua and Jordan Addison leading you to fantasy glory.
This year’s rookie wide receivers include potential NFL studs Marvin Harrison Jr. from Ohio State and Malik Nabers from LSU who will be featured at the WR1s for their squads. But don’t overlook some of the other talented rookie receivers who have favorable landing spots on teams where they can slide into the WR2 or WR3 role and outperform their ADP.
2024 WR2 Candidates
This year WR2 Theory candidates are broken up into five tiers based on their potential fantasy ceilings. I’m prioritizing Tier 1 and 2 WRs in my drafts. Tiers 3 and 4 are later-round depth and flex options, with Tier 5 being used primarily for waiver wire and bye-week support.
Tier 1 – Studs – WR1 Potential – Studs to Build Your Team Around
Tier 2 – Starters – WR2 Potential – Solid Weekly Starters
Tier 3 – Flex – WR3 Potential – Weekly Flex Options
Tier 4 – Depth – WR4 Potential – Roster Depth with Upside
Tier 5 – Stashes – WR5 Potential – Bye Week and Injury Depth
Here are my 2024 WR2 Theory break-out candidates identified by Tiers. All 2024 ADP rankings come directly from 4for4’s ADP tool and are based on a 12-team PPR league.
Tier 1
Rounds 3–4
Studs
Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams – WR16
Matthew Berry’s “Little Cooper Kupp” has made a name for himself in fantasy football since breaking into the NFL in 2017. Since then Kupp has compiled the greatest wide receiver season in fantasy football in 2021 when he scored a record-setting 439.5 PPR points. Now 31 years old and the clear WR2 on the Los Angeles Rams, Kupp is still oozing with opportunity that shouldn’t be overlooked because of name familiarity.
Puka Nacua might be the top dog in the Rams’ receiving offense, averaging 17.6 FP per game last year, but Kupp averaged over 18 FP in the last five games of the season, scoring over 25 points twice. Nacua’s 27% target share last season is prime for regression with Kupp healthy heading into the season. His target share was 31% the last time he played a full season in 2021.
My Canton compadre, Jorge Martin joined the WR2 Theory podcast and makes several great points about Kupp when he said “It’s a Sean McVay offense. Matthew Stafford is healthy, they refurbished the offense line, he’s got Puka Nacua, so he’s never going to get double coverage and he was still the red zone target.”
I expect Kupp and Nacua to soak up at least 50% of Matthew Stafford’s targets this season. Realistically, both wide receivers could see 150 targets this season. I love Kupp’s value in the middle of the third round. I’m not the only one who has noticed his undervalued ADP. Less than a month ago he was being drafted as the WR20. He’s hot, just like Hansel.
Brandon Aiyuk – San Fransico 49ers – WR17
Last season, Brandon Aiyuk was being drafted as the WR28. I wrote about his value in last year’s edition of WR2 Theory, stating:
“Even if he has a down year and scores 25 fewer points, the floor is rock solid. The ceiling though is WR15, which he achieved last season. If you pass on Aiyuk’s late 6th-round value, you might be allergic to winning your fantasy league.”
I was 100000% right and not only am I the owner of WR2 Theory, but I’m also a client. Boomer reference!! Drafting Brandon Aiyuk on all my teams last year helped me secure two fantasy championships. This is how it WR2 Theory works.
Right now Aiyuk’s ADP is dropping faster than a prime time pass to a wide-open MVS. The general sentiment around the fantasy community is that Deebo Samuel is the guy to have between these two. I think that Aiyuk might fall even further in drafts the longer the drama with the 49ers goes on.
If Aiyuk gets traded, he’s the WR1 on the team he is traded to, but if he stays behind in San Franciso, he could still be the WR1 on his team, like he was last season. Aiyuk is upside personified. He amassed close to 1,500 air yards and had a YPR of 17.9, which was second to only George Pickens’ 18.1 for wide receivers with over 100 targets. He’s the definition of fantasy upside and that’s what WR2 Theory chases.
Aiyuk was Incredibly efficient last year, which means there will probably be some regression, but there’s still a case in the hyper-successful 49ers’ offense for him to finish as a top-15 wide receiver in fantasy points. If Deebo misses any time, like he did last year with the shoulder injury, Aiyuk has weekly WR1 upside. Let Aiyuk fall to you in the fourth round if other people are scared off by him and count the money come December.
Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins – WR18
Jaylen Waddle is coming off a season where he only played 14 games, scored 198.6 FP, and finished as the overall WR34. This was a hugely disappointing 23 spots below his WR11 ADP. He was a huge disappointment for fantasy football managers who invested their third-round pick in him last year.
During the offseason, Waddle signed a three-year contract extension with the Dolphins worth $84.75 million, including $76 million guaranteed. He’s now the fourth-highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL, averaging 28.25M a year. Mike McDaniel has invested over 60M a year in Waddle and Tyreek Hill. They are both going to eat in 2024.
Waddle’s WR18 ADP, available at the backend of the third round, makes him an appropriately priced WR2 with upside. Bo McBrayer shared on episode 4 of WR2 Theory that “Jaylen Waddle is on the way up. He is hyper talented and this offense gets humming better when he is healthy. He was banged up in the middle of the season and that is why Tyreek got all those targets.”
His 18% target show was the lowest of his career last season and has depressed his ADP. Fantasy drafters are aware of the upside, but they are also worried after getting burned last year. I’m projecting a healthy Waddle with a 22% target share this year, 125 targets, 85 receptions, 1,250 yards, and seven touchdowns. I might be underestimating.
I understand the trepidation, but I’m not worried given Tua’s progression last season, leading the league in passing yards. The emergence of De’Von Achane adds more explosive weaponry to an already stacked Miami offensive attack. More space and less I expect positive regression in all of Waddle’s offensive measurables. Trust the money. They paid him to play him. Wheels up.
DeVonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles – WR20
Last season I was all in on DeVonta Smith, making him the cover guy for the WR2 Theory, featuring him on the front page, and declaring that he would outscore A.J. Brown. Well….I’m here to tell you that I’m ready to be hurt all over again this season and am running it back with Devonta Smith as my favorite WR2 Theory candidate of 2024. And, I’m not alone this time.
Denny Carter of NBC Sports and Rotoworld recently came on my WR2 Theory podcast and stated his case for Smith to be a top 12 wideout this year, potentially supplanting A.J. Brown as the WR1 on the Eagles. It’s “DeVonta deja vu” all over again.
Kellan Moore’s offense should be a game-changer for Smith, allowing him the freedom to work in open space and to get open all over the field. Smith has been tearing up the Eagles’ training camp, roasting DBs, up and down the field. Cooper got Dejaened, if you catch my drift.
When asked about drafting WR2s in the third and fourth rounds Carter pointed directly to Smith’s new role in Moore’s offensive scheme and shared that, “Apparently Devonta Smith is just tearing up training camp. Dominate in the short area, intermediate, downfield, everything. I do think that this Kellen Moore offense coming to Philadelphia, which will be more creative, less stodgy, less stuck in the mud, I think more adaptive this season could be great for both Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown.”
Carter went on to say, “You have to pay the premium for Brown, I do think there are some maybe some scenarios where Devonta Smith ends up outscoring Brown and you can get him later and I think Smith could be the WR2 Theory cover guy this year because of that.” Strong words from the perennial “Wide Receiver Whisperer” advocating for Smith’s breakout season. But he’s the only one all-in on Smith at his ADP.
Bo McBrayer must have felt left out because he too planted his flag on Smith saying, “The Eagles passing game is so concentrated, it’s so focused, so predictable that Devonta Smith at WR23 (at the time we streamed) is an insult to his name!”
I’m fully on board with this analysis and think that the “Slim Reaper” is going to be unstoppable this season. Smith is currently being drafted at the end of the third round and makes a great WR2 with WR1 upside. You know what to do.
Tier 2
Rounds 6–8
Starters
Stefon Diggs – Houston Texans – WR23
Stefon Diggs has averaged 280.5 FP per season in the last six NFL seasons. Last year with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills he scored 273 FP and was the overall WR9. Now he’s being drafted as the WR23 this year and his ADP is dropping.
People are out on Diggs after the narrative has shifted from him being an “elite wide receiver” with yearly WR1 upside to a “diva” who couldn’t get along with American Hero Josh Allen and then got Ken Dorsey fired for letting Josh throw all those interceptions. He was then subsequently shipped off to Houston, where apparently he isn’t actually missed. He is now being drafted at the tail end of the WR2 tier. Is Stefon Diggs “washed” as the kids are saying?
According to Jonathan M. Alexander, of the Houston Chronicle, C.J. Stroud and Stefon Diggs appear to building chemistry and finding their rhythm. He stated:
“Stroud hit wide receiver Stefon Diggs on two deep routes for touchdowns — one for 60 yards and the other for 40 yards. The chemistry between Stroud and Diggs is becoming more pronounced in the practice. And it’s clear that Diggs is still a No. 1 receiver option. Diggs has emerged as Stroud’s favorite target in recent weeks.”
Diggs’s performance in Buffalo left most fantasy footballers with a sour taste in their mouths and they are fading him into the end of the fourth round. The presence of Tank Dell being drafted a round later is also causing people to pass on Diggs at his WR23 ADP. Diggs seems to be caught in a no-mans-land of ADP, slipping down draft boards as people avoid the uncertainty.
When Diggs was reached for comment by fantasy drafters, I am guessing he pulled this old Mark Twain quote out and glibly retorted, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”
Precisely the opportunity we need to capitalize on other fantasy players’ timidity. The Texans like to throw the football. Last season they were top 12 in passing offense, with 59% passing plays compared to 41% rushing. The Texans’ offensive attack is built on their passing game. As a rookie, CJ Stroud passed for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns. The addition of Diggs should elevate Stroud and the Texans’ passing game to the next level. Diggs is currently projected as my WR20 with 242 FP. Money. Mouth.
Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals – WR28
Last season was a massive disappointment for Cincinnati Bengals four fourth-year wide receiver Tee Higgins, who saw career lows in receptions (42), receiving yards (656), and touchdowns (5). He was drafted as the WR14 and he finished as the overall WR51. His 76 targets were 33 less than his career average of 109 targets per season.
Higgins unsuccessfully tried to explore the wide receiver market this offseason but was franchised tagged by the Bengals and returned to the team this season on a one-year 24 million dollar contract.
The good news is that after the departure of Tyler Boyd, and the aforementioned franchise tag, it appears that the Bengals desperately need Tee Higgins running on all cylinders this year if they’re going to be successful as an offensive unit. Ja’Marr Chase is currently holding out for a new contract and has not participated in any training camp activities with the team.
Tee Higgins is not Ja’Marr Chase, but before the wheels fell off last season for Higgins, he was averaging 74 receptions, over 1,000 yards receiving, and 6.5 touchdowns the previous two seasons. He scored 219.1 FP in 2021 and finished as the overall WR25. He then followed that up with 220.9 in 2022 and finished as the overall WR19.
We know that Higgin is capable of producing these numbers again this season given the potential workload, his important role in the offense, and the return of a healthy Joe Burrow. The Bengals and “Joey B”, as my partner Cash calls him, both like to sling it. Last year the team ranked second in the NFL with a 63% passing rate. Up 1% from 62% the previous year. There will be air yards for days.
Last season Chase and Higgins combined for over 2,100 air yards and I only see that number increasing this season. Combine that with the 5th easiest schedule according to Warren Sharp and Tee Higgins is back in business this season. He’s even discounted for you, if not gift-wrapped.
Keenan Allen – Chicago Bears – WR33
The reports out of Chicago Bears’ camp are that Keenan Allen tipped the scales supposedly up 19lbs. from his listed weight of 211lbs. Allen’s ADP has been in a mini free fall ever since and he is currently falling to the start of the seventh round.
When my aforementioned podcast partner, the best fantasy footballer I’ve ever played with, Mike “Cash” Collins drafted him last season, I laughed at his “old man pick.” Well, boy was I wrong about Allen last year. Before his injury, he was one of the top 3 scoring wideouts in the NFL. Oops.
With Allen now the projected WR2 in the Bears offense, I reached out to Cash and asked him if I should include Keenan “Don’t call me fat” Allen in my 2024 WR2 Theory and he emphatically implored not leave him out. His exact quote was “I can’t believe people are disrespecting Keenan Allen again this year. They did the same thing last year, just called him ‘old’ and didn’t draft him.”
Bo McBrayer was once again not to be outdone and agreed with Cash for the first time in recorded history echoing his take saying, “Keenan Allen. He is being disrespected. Caleb is a stud. The Keenan Allen train is going to keep on chugging along.”
Cash then threatened to draft him right then, saying “I’m gonna draft him again this year. He’s almost a hall of fame wide receiver and I’m not scared of rookie Rome Odunze.”
Bold words that I know Cash will back up with actions in all our leagues. I’m less excited about Allen and think his future in Chicago is less stable and Odunze might not be WR3 every week given his athletic profile and play-making abilities.
I might let Bo and Cash fight it out for Keenan and draft Odunze.
Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR34
Chris Godwin is being completely forgotten and disrespected in fantasy drafts this year. He finished as the WR28 in 2023 and is currently being drafted in the seventh round. Godwin also had 130 targets last year, good for 19th best amongst wide receivers. His 23% target share was the 16th-highest and this season he is returning to the slot.
David Harrison from Sports Illustrated quoted Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach Todd Bowels speaking about Godwin, “He’s an inside guy by nature. “He can play outside, but he can make a living inside doing a bunch of things for us and we’re planning on letting him do a lot of things he does best.”
Godwin’s return to the slot is promising news for fantasy drafters who wait in drafts and are buying the ADP dip. I am not projection Godwin to outperform Mike Evans and take over the WR1 status on the Bucs, but I am expecting him to outperform his awful ADP and consistently return the high-end WR3 upside you are looking for when you are drafting wideouts in the middle rounds.
Tier 3
Rounds 8–10
Flex Options
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks – WR41
Jaxon Smith-Njigba or JSN as the “yutes” in the chat call him, was hyped through the roof last year by fantasy analysts and particularly by my partner in DFS crime on ChalkBlocked, the sexiest show in DFS…for now, Bo McBrayer who sold the farm for him.
Crashing back to reality, JSN finished as the WR47 after being drafted as the WR40 at the start of the season. A year later and not much has changed, or has it?. JSN is being drafted as the WR41, but Geno Smith is injured to start the season, and renowned fantasy slinger of deep balls Sam Howell has replaced him.
Gone is the 2023 Offensive Coordinator, Shane “Slowest Pace of Play in the NFL” Waldron whose been replaced with Ryan Grubbs. According to ProFootballHistory.com “Before this season he (Grubbs) began his NFL coaching career with the Houston Texans as their assistant strength and conditioning coach/director of speed development in 2023.”
New Head Coach, Mike McDonald is a defensive specialist who coached the Ravens defensive backs and linebackers before becoming their defensive coordinator the last two seasons.
All this to say, like many NFL prognosticators, I don’t think that the Seahawks are going to be a very good NFL football team this season. The Seahawks OVER/UNDER win total in Las Vegas is only 6.5. They are going to be behind in most of their games and they will need to throw the football…a lot.
I’m protecting JSN for 80 catches for 1,000 yards with six touchdowns. That’s 17 more catches, 300 more yards, and two more touchdowns than he finished with in his rookie campaign. All reasonable numbers given the projected win total for the team, JSN’s growth and development as he enters his second NFL season, and the new offensive scheme. Last year Jayden Reed was the overall WR25 and he scored 217.2 FP.
JSN is a steal! Oh, and I’m not writing about Lockett again this year. At WR50 he too is a steal.
Jameson Williams – Detroit Lions – WR47
John Maakaron from Sports Illustrated shared that Jameson Williams has been impressive in camp so far this preseason. He reported that “The Alabama product has made several highlight plays throughout camp, doing so again Wednesday with a spectacular full-extension grab to secure a win for the offense in a situational drill.”
The Lions have been successful the last few years passing the football despite Jameson Williams, not because of him. He spent much of his first season rehabbing an ACL tear suffered in January of 2022. in 2023 he was healthy but missed the first four games of the regular season due to an NFL suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy and betting on a non-football sport from the workplace, according to the league.
The Lions lost Josh Reynolds in the offseason and didn’t draft a wide receiver or even sign one in free agency. Williams appears to be the front-runner for the role at this point and training camp and should see an increased role in the offense if he continues to shine in camp and remains locked in. There are between 70-80 wide receiver targets vacated in this offense and if Williams gets 50 of those he could pay off his ADP and then some.
The downside for Williams is that he has not been consistent. The hope is that he remains the forgotten man in your drafts and he falls to you a little later than WR47. He looks to be going around the end of the 9th round, but I’ve seen him fall as far as the 11th round. I think he’s a sneaky option with upside who could be a flex starter by the end of the season. Just don’t reach for him. Let him find his way to you.
Brain Thomas Jr. – Jacksonville Jaguars – WR49
The Jacksonville Jaguars let Calvin Ridley walk in free agency and addressed their wide receiver need in the 2024 NFL Draft, selecting Brian Thomas Jr. from LSU with the 23rd overall pick in the first round. He has a large role to fill in the Jag’s offense, but the 6’4″ wide receiver has all the skills to be a starting wide receiver in the NFL. He also ticks several of the WR2 Theory boxes.
Young talent with draft capital: Check
Targets/Opportunity: Check
High Passing Volume: Check
Thomas immediately slots into Calvin Ridley’s role as the X receiver on the outside. Last season at LSU, Thomas was the Tigers’ deep threat, hauling in 68 receptions for 1,177 yards with 17 touchdowns. His 40-yard dash in 4.33 at the NFL Scouting Combine, was second to only Xavier Worthy’s 4.21. His speed and size will test both corners and safeties and immediately becomes a red-zone target for Trevor Lawrance.
I have Thomas Jr. projected for 58 catches for 883 yards and seven touchdowns. He is currently my WR41 in my full NFL projections. I think that he might not be a starter on your fantasy team in week 1, but after a few weeks, I think he will be a consistent contributor to your squad and a solid flex option week in and week out.
Khalil Shakir – Buffalo Bills – WR52
Josh Allen has dominated the quarterback position for the last four seasons. He’s finished as the QB1, QB2, QB1 and QB1. He’s unbelievable. This year he’s being drafted by fantasy footballers as…wait for it…the QB1. Despite losing Stefon Diggs (who when asked if he missed him, Allen answered “no”) and Gabe Davis, Josh Allen truthers are not deterred. If he is going to pull off QB1 for the fourth of five seasons, he’s going to need new weapons to emerge in the Bill offense.
At the end of last season, a new hero may have emerged that many in the fantasy football community have anointed him as “the chosen one” to lead Allen back to glory. Then the Bill drafted enigmatic charmer Keon Coleman from Florida State University in the second round of the NFL draft. This threw a general damper on the buzz and then the Bills signed Curtis Samuel in the offseason and Shakir finds himself being drafted as the WR3 on the Bills.
According to PFF, Allen targeted Shakir 56 times last season. 51 of these throws were considered “catchable.” The 91.1% catchable target rate is an excellent indicator that Allen and Shakir are on the same page in how they see the spacing on the field and could point to a breakout season for Shakir.
I originally thought the Shakir hype was a little Gabe Davisy from 2021 when he was the Bill’s playoff darling and his ADP skyrocketed to the moon in 2022 drafts. But there is no denying that Shakir and Allen had a connection last year. Thankfully all the preseason hype calmed down Shakir is very draftable in the middle of the 11th round and won’t cost you much of your draft capital.
Romeo Doubs – Green Bay Packers – WR53
Dontayvion Wicks – Green Bay Packers – WR60
Matt LaFleur was recently asked about having a true WR1 on the Packers and his response was “I want to vomit.” That is exactly what fantasy managers who already paid up for Jayden Reed or Christian Watson are doing right this second as they read this. Clean yourself off and saddle back up to the fantasy football bar partner.
The two Packers wide receivers who might be the two best and also the two cheapest are Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks who are currently being drafted as the WR53 and WR60, available in the middle of the 11th and at the beginning of the 13th. My strategy is to leave every single one of my drafts with one of these two guys. Right now I am leaning toward Wicks given that with every catch he makes he’s either making the first man miss or is breaking a tackle in the open field.
But then I watch Doubs’ highlights and the man is a finger-tip snagging, pinky-toe dragging, safety torching, zone contested-catch machine. Now I am leaning toward Doubs. Wait…..now….there’s an idea. Why not draft them both? There it’s settled. It’s both! Pssst…if Christian Watson falls grab him too.
Tier 4
Rounds 11–14
Depth
Rashid Shaheed – New Orleans Saints – WR59
The Michael Thomas era has officially come to an end. Make way for the season of Rashid Shaheed!!! The Lisan Al Gaib of the 2024 fantasy football season, sent to wage war against all the other fantasy football houses and win you great victory in your fantasy football championship!
Shaheed’s later-round ADP is perplexing to me. Best ball bros love him, but apparently, no one knows that the Saints ranked 13th in total passing yards ahead of teams like the Eagles, Bengals, Packers, and Seahawks who all produced two top 36 wide receivers last year.
Drafters are head over heels in love with Shaheed’s teammate, Chris Olave, drafting him in the second round as WR11!!
Meanwhile, Shaheed has been completely forgotten, dripping with breakout potential, he’s languishing all the way back at WR59. An astonishing 48 wide receivers after Olave.
This is a primetime glaring example of drafters overvaluing the wide receiver, one on a team, and undervaluing the wide receiver two. I’m not saying Shaheed will be the WR1 on the Saints necessarily. What I’m saying is that 48-pick disparity is teaming with value for you to exploit in your fantasy league.
Adam Thielen – Carolina Panthers – WR62
The Carolina Panthers improved their wide receiver crops significantly this offseason when they traded for Diotae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Adam Thielen is still hanging around and should be the team’s clear WR2. I don’t think that Thielen has another repeat performance like last year when he was drafted at the WR51 and finished as the WR17.
Thielen is currently being drafted as the WR62 in PPR leagues and is available in the middle of the 13th round. He’s not sexy. He’s not young. He’s not an ascending rookie, but he is tied to a quarterback in Bryce Young, who should see measurable improvements from his abysmal rookie season performance last year.
During his appearance on episode 2 of the WR2 Theory podcast this season, Fantasy Six Pack Fantasy football analyst Justin Bruni envisions a meaningful role for Thielen in the offense. When asked if he preferred Thielen to rookie Xavier Legette, he said, “Thielen will have a very good baseline role in this offense. (Bobby) Canales has talked about wanting to get the ball out quickly and wanted to improve the efficiency of Bryce Young. He will take a step forward.”
Last season Thielen ran 69% (Nooice!) of his routes from the slot. Diontae Johnson is primarily an edge receiver, who only lined up in the slot on 21% of his routes last season. Thielen should continue to eat on the short underneath passes that all count in PPR. He is a no-brainer in the 13th.
If there were to be an injury to Thielen, Legette could be a wavier wire pickup that has some upside towards the end of the fantasy season. Bruni suggests using your last pick on Legette if you can’t wrangle Thielen in the later rounds. Keep an eye on this wide receiver room in training camp as well and be ready to adjust the ranks if the landscape changes.
Tier 5
Round 15 – Free Agents
Stashes
Demario “Pop” Douglas – New England Patriots – WR68
There’s just something to love about a diminutive WR with the nickname “Pop.” The story behind it is even more endearing and if you weren’t drafting him for the cool nickname or the family history, you should draft him because he’s GOOD and is currently being drafted behind rookie Ja’Lynn Polk as the WR2 on the Patriots.
Douglas had a mini-breakout season last year for the anemic Patriots’ offense, catching 49 of 75 passes for 561 yards and zero touchdowns. All numbers that should improve in his second NFL season. Last year Demario “Pop” Douglas lined up in the slot 67.7% of the time he was on the field. He’s New England’s clear WR1 heading into the 2024 NFL season.
Eric Moody of ESPN came on episode one of the WR2 Theory podcast this season and said, “Douglas is someone that I am drafting late in a high percentage of the mock drafts that we are doing at ESPN. I want to say in many cases I am getting him as my WR5 or WR6 and I am very comfortable with.”
Moody expounded on Douglas’s potential role in the offense saying, “If you look from week seven on he did have a 21% target share and a 25% air yard share, which are two things that are encouraging. I like Douglas, if you wanted me to like lead the Patriots in targets, Douglas is my guy.”
According to Dakota Randall of the Pro Football Network who has been at Patriots training camp, “You can’t overstate the difference Douglas makes for this offense. Everything changes when he’s on the field, with Patriots quarterbacks able to rely on a speed playmaker who’s always open.”
Douglas appears to be the straw that stirs the Patriots’ Dunkin iced latte of an offense. I get why he is being ignored and is barely coming off the board in the late 14th round. But it’s a mistake that drafters need to adjust the ranks on.
Randall went on to say, “Douglas was a force on Sunday, finishing with a team-high six catches in competitive drills. He also made a seventh catch that was ruled out of bounds by the officials. Douglas is a target hog in every practice. The second-year pro also continued to be a matchup nightmare in 1-on-1 drills.”
Sign me up for all the Douglas. If you’re playing in my league, you will have zero shares because he will be all mine.
Rookies to watch:
All of the following rookie wide receivers are slotted into their offenses as either the WR2 or WR3 and should outperform their late-round ADPs. I’m not writing lengthy paragraphs on them, but they all possess a path to fantasy relevance toward the back half of the fantasy football season.
These are guys that you need to pay attention to as training camps wrap up and we move into the regular season. Monitor the starters to see when injuries happen, monitor reps and targets as the season progresses, and be aware of any changes so you can grab them on the waiver wire before anybody else in your league.
Adonai Mitchell – Indianapolis Colts – WR64
Impressive Colts’ rookie from last season Josh Downs is currently sidelined with a dreaded high ankle sprain suffered early on in the Colts’ training camp. He’s expected to be out at least a month recovering and rehabbing.
Unfortunate news for the Colts and Downs, but it has opened the slot receiver door for rookie Adonai Mitchell, who the Colts drafted in the second round of the NFL with the 52nd overall pick out of the University of Texas. Mitchell has blazing 4.34 speed, which was third-best for rookie wide receivers at the NFL Combine. I pity any linebacker who has the monumental task of trying to cover him in space.
I don’t expect Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson to set the passing world on fire this season, but Mitchell is a good late-round depth pick who could flash to start the season.
Xavier Legette – Carolina Panthers – WR66
Carolina Panthers fans, and the national media as well, have already fallen in love with Xavier Legette. Nobody actually knows what he’s saying but we all want to listen to him say it. Legette reminds me a lot of a raw bigger stronger Deebo Samuel, with a faster 40 time. Despite being only 6’1″, Legette scored in the 88th percentile for catch radius, and 89th in his burst score compared to all other NFL players. His 4.39 speed is scary. I would not be surprised if Adem Thielen starts losing some of his reps to Legette as the fall turns to winter on the gridiron.
Jermaine Burton – Cincinnati Bengals – WR79
Jermaine Burton was drafted in the third round with the 150th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to replace Tyler Boyd’s in the Bengals offense. Over the past four years, Boyd accounted for 85.3%, 84.4,%, 89.7%, and 84.2% of the Bengals’ slot targets. During those four seasons, Boyd averaged 96 targets, 68 receptions, and 774.5 receiving yards per year. He should be drafted in all formats with Joe Burrow as his QB.
Malachi Corley – New York Jets – WR80
Aaron Rodgers may be the greatest quarterback to ever play the game according to… Aaron Rodgers, but if he’s gonna will the Jets to NFL glory this season, he is going to need some help.
Last season Allen Lazard was a huge failure, barely getting on the field and 69-year-old Randall Cobb basically retired. Those were both Rodgers’ guys. He needs new guys. Enter Malachi Corely, who recently complained that he hadn’t been able to hit people hard enough and wants to run someone over on the field.
My adrenaline is spiking just reading about his T levels. This slot receiver might hurt you when you try to tackle you. Oh, and I forgot to mention he is going to be featured on the return team tackling the new kickoffs. We know Rodgers loves his security blanket underneath, Corely might just slot into that role this season for the New York Jets.
Luke McCaffrey – Washington Commander – WR83
Yes, Luke McCaffrey is the younger brother of Christian McCaffrey and the son of legendary Denver Broncos WR Ed McCaffrey, who fun fact, was my favorite player growing up as a kid. I kept his football card in my wallet. Yeah, I was cool.
Interestingly enough, Luke McCaffrey was drafted in the third round after the Washington Commanders were awarded a compensatory pick from the San Francisco 49ers, his brother Christian’s team. The 49ers could have had both McCaffrey brothers. Alas.
Luke McCaffrey finds himself in an advantageous situation in the Commanders’ wide receiver room. 2022 first-round draft pick Jahan Dotson appears to have lost his way. McCaffrey recently transitioned from QB to WR, but with the uncertainties surrounding the depth chart in Washington, look for McCaffrey to do his best Adam Thielen impression this season.
Greg “the human torch” Dortch – Arizona Cardinals – WR92
Greg Dortch has been a fantasy football Twitter darling during the off-season. And I would be remiss if I did not throw him a bone because he has looked unstoppable in training camp.
Short king Kyler Murray respects his fellow short kings and I think he will return ADP value. You can get him free whenever you want him unless you’re in a league with a psycho like me.
I don’t know if Greg Dortch’s nickname is “the human torch”, but I have never ever passed up an opportunity to use an anchorman reference in my writing while also accurately describing the potential fantasy breakout and the fire that will be your team if you make him your last pick in the draft.
What do you have to lose? If he underperforms the first couple weeks you just drop him and pick up somebody else who’s popping. He cost you nothing.
WR2 Theory Podcasts
Episode 1 – Eric Moody
WR2 Theory – Episode 2 – Justin Bruni
WR2 Theory – Episode 3 – Denny Carter
WR2 Theory – Episode 4 – Bo McBrayer & Jorge Martin
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Nimble w/Numbers 