Classified Intro: Burn Immediately after Reading!
I cannot believe you are reading this in public! Put it down. Right now. Did anyone see you open this web page? Are you on Google Incognito mode? QUICK! You know that THEY don’t want you to read this and will be watching both of us, now. Come with me.
We aren’t safe here. “BIGG WR” has people everywhere. Their agents of chaos tweet and podcast, and even have the audacity to fantasy draft amongst us. Now, sadly, they are widely accepted into the fantasy football community. They draft four, sometimes five, wide receivers to start a live draft without any shame. Then they high-five their friends as if they had just invented light beer.
It’s no longer safe for people like us. People want to draft a few STUD running backs in the first few rounds. Hell, we might want to snag a HERO-TE or even Lamar Jackson just for shits and giggles. Quick! Follow me into this completely unsuspicious, darkly lit room right off the street. In here, we’ll be without the prying eyes of old Sauron Musk and the BIGG WR bros.
It’s a secret wide receiver club, actually. It’s all good. They’re with me. Yeah, I’ll grab the usual spot in the back. Bring over my WR2 Theory, the latest and greatest 2025 Edition. Grab a seat.
That was fucking close. I think they almost got you. You scared me there for a second. Glad that I was looking out for you. You were all alone in the wild. And there was a high likelihood that Davis Mattik himself was lurking in the smallest of shadows.
Never can be too cautious these days. There are so many dangerous people out there. Real weirdos. Guys, you definitely would not want to be all alone with in a dark room in the middle of nowhere. Especially not without your phone. Oh, here is your phone back. Oops. Forgot I still had it.
It’s scary how some people just cannot be trusted anymore. Those sickos are destroying the very fabric of the fantasy draft board. The public is buying the 1st round BIGG WR propaganda. Last year, they abandoned the early-round running backs. Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry were all but forgotten by fantasy drafters. They served as a stark reminder of what happens when BIGG WR goes wrong and good running backs aren’t valued appropriately.
Instead, these WR Bros picked Tyreek “Don’t Tase Me Bro” Hill or Marvin “Tackle Me After the Catch Daddy” Harrison Jr., and it sank their fantasy seasons. Nobody wants to discuss it this season. We are pretending like drafting NINE wide receivers in the 1st round is a good idea again this year. I told you I was taking crazy pills last year; now we all are. Don’t swallow.
Six of the top 10 fantasy scorers were running backs in 2024. Additionally, nine out of the top 16 scorers in PPR leagues were running backs. Seven of the top 12 wide receivers drafted did not meet their ADP last season. That’s bad.
The BIGG WR secret is out!! The Best Ball Bros have hyper-fragility modeled the fantasy football community into this encroaching early-round WR hell-scape. Many enlightened knowers of ball are calling it the “WR Crazy Times” or “WR CT”. We must stick together now. The Best Ball Bros have never been more dangerous. We must resist ADP.
I have a decade’s worth of data that points out the poor wide receiver prediction skills of fantasy drafters. For a long time, potential wide receiver value has been abundant. This value is just waiting to be leveraged during drafts. It’s not just WR2s. WR3s and WR4s are also undervalued and have the potential to return substantial value to drafters.
I say it every season, looks around, leans in, ADP is a myth. Always has been. It’s all about knowing ball. You can strategically choose players with massive upside if you know what specific markers to look for. WR2 Theory helps build a fantasy team that actually has a chance to compete for a fantasy championship every season. Time to adjust the ranks on how we think about wide receiver value in fantasy drafts. But first, we brag.
Before we go any further, let me show you the hardware, the championships, the cash. Bring out the trophies, boys. You are gonna want to shield your eyes from the glare with these sunglasses….you’ll thank me later.
The Championships
WR2 Theory is the idea of intentionally fading expensive, early-round wide receivers. Instead, you target undervalued WR2s and WR3s to build a championship-winning team. Over the last five years, I have honed my WR2 Theory drafting strategy. I utilized it to win 13 fantasy football leagues. Most importantly, it has earned me thousands of dollars in prize money.
I’ve been beating the likes of International ZeroRB truther and “Wide Reciever Whisperer” Denny “Never Been Owned” Carter from NBC Sports and Rotoworld in the process. I have also outperformed FantasyPros perennial Top 5 ranker Joe Bond from Fantasy Six Pack. Additionally, the connoisseur of culinary delicacies, and the one and only Sultan of Spicy hot takes himself, Bo McBrayer, has been surpassed. He is of HotboxBatch fame, a true OG. My favorite Canton Compadre, Jorge Martin from Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life was also challenged. Of course, there’s my podcast partner from the FFMillionaires, by far the greatest fantasy football player I’ve competed against in real life, Mike “Cash” Collins.
The success has been sweet. It has solidified WR2 Theory as an advantageous drafting strategy. You can use it with multiple other strategies. These include value-based drafting, HeroRB, Late Round QB, TE-heavy, BIG Rookie, running QB, and ZeroRB. It works with them all, just not BIGG WR.
In this article, I will review the history of WR2 Theory. I will describe how I assess potential WR2s every season. Then, I will argue for “why” and explain “how” WR2 Theory should be used in this year’s fantasy football drafts.
Thanks for seeking shelter from the fantasy storm with WR2 Theory this season. By the way, has anyone ever told you that you look just like Sidney Sweeney in those jeans? You are Sidney Sweeney, and you are not wearing any jeans….Gotcha BitchES!!
WR2 Theory Origin Story
Everyone loves a good origin story. If you don’t, just scroll past to get to the analytics.
Six seasons ago, WR2 Theory was officially launched into the fantasy football ether. If you missed the origin story, WR2 Theory’s roots can be traced to a brief but meaningful Twitter exchange with JJ Zachariason in February 2020. JJ posted a tweet asking for questions for his Late-Round Podcast mailbag. Everything fell into place as I stumbled upon it. I posted a question I had been mulling over for the last few seasons. Simply put, I wanted to know how accurately we could predict which wide receiver finished the season as the WR1 on their team. As a fantasy community, were we successful in making those predictions? I was sure that fantasy football analysts had already answered this question. If JJ could just kindly push me in the right direction, I could get that info. Then I would be getting on with winning all my leagues….in February….don’t judge me.
After talking to JJ, it quickly became apparent that the easy answers I was seeking were not readily available to be effortlessly plucked from the fantasy football tree of knowledge. If my question was going to be answered, I was gonna need to take the fantasy stats into my own hands. I started immediately and haven’t looked back!!!
Analytics – The Wide Receiver Data Trends
I began by poring over the last 11 seasons of WR ADP data and then compared it to the end-of-the-season wide receiver rankings. The data trend I found was staggering. Every season 30-40% of wide receivers who are drafted as the WR1 on their team are outperformed by a teammate. Only 22 of the 32 (69%) of the WR1s drafted last year actually finished as the WR1 on their own team.
As I dug further into the data, I started to see a pattern emerge. Each year, there are wide receivers who are routinely undervalued and outperform their ADP. In 2021, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, Darnell Mooney, and Christian Kirk were all drafted as the WR2 on their respective teams. They each finished as the WR1.
Again in 2022, Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk, Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson all were drafted as the respective WR2s on their teams and you already know how this ends: they finished as the WR1 on their teams.
2023 was no exception. Puka Nacua, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, George Pickens, Jordan Addison, and Courtland Sutton were drafted as the WR2 on their respective teams. They finished the season as the WR1. Puka was a league winner, and he basically went undrafted.
And guess what, 2024 was the exception. No, I am kidding! WR2 Theory is the law now, after six seasons with no exceptions. Last season, 10 players were drafted as the WR2 or later on their respective teams who ended up finishing as their team’s top wide receiver based on fantasy points.
LSU Rookie standout Brian Thomas Jr. and second-year breakout Jaxon Smith-Njigba headline the breakout WR2s. Both finished in the top 10. Fifth-year breakout Jerry Jeudy finished just outside the top 12 as the WR13. Here is the full list:
A whopping 80% of these wide receivers were drafted after round 8 of PPR drafts last season, with five finishing in the top 24. Are you sold on WR2 Theory yet?
According to my analysis, 18 out of 32 WR1s drafted failed to meet or exceed their 2024 ADP. Only 14 wide receivers drafted first on their team finished at or above their 2024 ADP. Which means only 44% returned value on the high-end draft capital drafters paid for them.
Drafters overpaid for all of the following WRs in 2024. Some marginally, some egregiously. Pour some out for all the Rashee Rice, Chris Olave, and Diontae Johnson drafters. We can only hope they drafted them all on the same team.
Several factors contribute to this massive misallocation of wide receiver value in fantasy drafts. Injuries, poor player performance, a change in offensive personnel, or scheme changes mid-season. The overall trend, though, points to the inflated overvaluation of WR1s by fantasy footballers in general. Think about it as paying the WR1 Tariff on your draft selection. The WR2s and WR3s are cheaper. They possess less inherent risk. They have greater upside relative to their ADP. Plus, there are no tariffs!
You don’t have to be Nimble with Numbers to see the discrepancy between consensus wide receiver ADP and true wide receiver value. The question then becomes, how do we identify the next WR2 to become a WR1? How can we find the WR3 who will greatly outperform their ADP? And how do you avoid overpriced WR1s? You ask great questions. Let’s find out.
WR2 Theory Criteria for Success
Every evaluation/prediction process needs criteria for success. I recently updated my evaluation process to include the following components;
Available Targets: the target and air yards that are available in a given offense at the start of each season.
High Volume Passing Offenses: offenses that consistently/historically see an increased percentage of passing volume when compared to the league average.
Emerging Talent/Rookies: Second and third-year breakouts, combined with rookie wide receivers immediately making a fantasy impact, combined with aging veterans.
Available Targets & Air Yards
Targets are always earned in any offense. Assessing the opportunities present in an offense before the season starts is a fruitful practice. It provides a data-driven big-picture approach. I’ve used this to determine potential breakout wide receivers in the past.
Available air yards and target data are important data points. I use these data points to help identify potential value in offenses. They also help me identify WRs who fit into the WR2 Theory. These WRs have the potential to break if the ball bounces their way.
Here is the list of 2025 Available Targets brought to you by Justin Edwards from 4for4. I updated his data with color graphics and made it sortable and accessible here.
No direct correlation exists between any player on a team and the targets in an offense from the previous season. However, edges are clearly apparent based on the data. In 2024, the Jacksonville Jaguars had the second-most available targets with 251. A talented young rookie being drafted to start in the offense was an opportunity for fantasy drafters. I wrote extensively about the potential Brian Thomas Jr. breakout in the 2024 edition of WR2 Theory. Here’s what I said:
The writing was on the WR2 Theory wall last year for Brian Thomas Jr. You just had to read it.
After reviewing the available target data, next, I studied the team-specific factors and circumstances to identify and document the conditions that led to the shift in the WR value for each team. Each team had its own unique set of circumstances that led to the upheaval of the WR1. Injuries, rookie emergence, improved quarterback play,
Injuries: Injuries, like Christian Kirk and DK Metcalf, immediately created an opportunity for Brian Thomas Jr. and Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s accession last season to WR1 status, on their own teams and overall in fantasy. Xavier Worthy was elevated when Rashee Rice went down in the first month of the season.
Every season wide receiver gets hurt, which instantly elevates the WR2 on the team into the WR1 role. You never want to plan for a player to get injured. However, understanding that 100% of the NFL will get injured at some point is helpful. It helps to see where the value lies in case something does happen to the WR1.
Rookie Power: Malik Nabers showed NFL first-round energy. He did not disappoint. He sliced through the league with Danny DeVito and one of the Mario Brothers at Quarterback. Ladd McConkey gave Justin Herbert reason to hope. This was after the Chargers traded away target monster Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears in the 2024 offseason.
High-Volume Passing Offenses
High-volume passing offenses have always ruled the fantasy football streets. It is undeniable that the NFL has become a passing league. Last year, seven teams featured at least two wide receivers who finished in the fantasy top 36.
Explosive Offenses: Over the last seven years, the following teams supported two top-36 WRs, including nine offenses last season!
Teams like the Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Minnesota Vikings, and the Philadelphia Eagles consistently produce two starting fantasy wide receivers. These players are weekly starters on your fantasy team.
Follow the trends. Which teams are projected to be the high-volume passing leaders in 2025? What rookies and emergent talent can you find in the later rounds? The hunt begins.
Emerging Talent/Rookies
For the longest time, the common-sense wisdom in redraft leagues was different. People believed it was best to wait on rookie wide receivers. These players are typically unreliable. They tend to break out later in years two or three. I remember my friend Fish drafting 8 rookies in 2019, and I thought the man had lost his mind. He did lose most of his early-season matches. However, I watched his team grow stronger and stronger. By the end of the season, it was running on all cylinders. I learned from watching him. Rookies are good, just not that many on one team.
Youth Movement
In 2020, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Chase Claypool challenged conventional wisdom. Jefferson finished as a WR1. Lamb and Claypool finished as WR2s. In 2021, Ja’Marr Chase scored over 300 fantasy points, and Jaylen Waddle finished as the WR13, scoring 245 points.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith all elevated their game heading into their sophomore seasons. All three were being drafted outside the top 25, and all finished as top 10 wide receivers in 2022.
The 2023 & 2024 NFL wide receiver classes were stacked with talent, and they did not disappoint. Here is the list of rookie and second-year WRs who finished in the top 40 in 2024 (bold indicates 2024 rookie).
Six rookie wide receivers cracked the top 40 last season. Don’t be afraid to take a few rookie wide receivers in the back half of your draft this year. The value of some of these wide receivers is criminal. Drafting rookie wideouts in 2024 would have been a winning strategy with Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers leading you to fantasy glory.
This year’s rookie wide receivers include potential NFL studs. Tetairoa McMillan from Arizona and Travis Hunter from Colorado will be featured at the WR1s for their squads. But don’t overlook some of the other talented rookie receivers like Emeka Egbuka or Matthew Golden. They have favorable landing spots on historically high passing teams. They can slide into the WR2 or WR3 role and easily outperform their ADP.
2025 WR2 Candidates
This year, WR2 Theory candidates are broken up into five tiers based on their potential fantasy ceilings. I’m prioritizing Tier 1 and 2 WRs in my drafts. Tiers 3 and 4 are later-round depth and flex options. Tier 5 is used primarily for waiver wire and bye-week support.
Tier 1 – Studs – WR1 Potential – Studs to Build Your Team Around
Tier 2 – Starters – WR2 Potential – Solid Weekly Starters
Tier 3 – Flex – WR3 Potential – Weekly Flex Options
Tier 4 – Depth – WR4 Potential – Roster Depth with Upside
Tier 5 – Stashes – WR5 Potential – Bye Week and Injury Depth
Here are my 2025 WR2 Theory break-out candidates identified by Tiers. All 2025 ADP rankings come directly from 4for4’s ADP tool and are based on a 12-team PPR league.
Tier 1 – Studs– Rounds 3–4
Davante Adams – Los Angeles Rams – WR16
BIGG WR is obsessed with Puka Nacua this season. All respect to Puka, but he’s not Davante Adams, at least not yet. Adams joins the LA Rams after being traded mid-season last year from the Las Vegas Raiders to the NY Jets. Despite being traded, Adams finished the season in PPR leagues as the WR11.
Adams averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game (FPG) in the 14 games that he played. If Adams had played a full season, he would have finished the year with close to 300 fantasy points and as the overall WR4. Almost like THEY are conspiring to depress his ADP, which is a myth.
According to StatMuse, Adams leads all NFL receivers with 59 receiving touchdowns over the last 5 years. Adams now replaces the often-injured Cooper Kupp, who scored 36 touchdowns with Stafford in the last five seasons. Adams is primed to be the number one redzone target for Matthew Stafford this season.
Stafford passed for 41 touchdowns in 2021. He passed for a total of 54 touchdowns the next three seasons combined. Injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua repressed those totals. But Stafford has been banged up as well. Both factors led to depressed touchdown numbers that are set to rebound in 2025.
The Rams and Sean McVay are committed to providing Stafford the weapons he needs to be successful this season. McVay welcomed Adams to the LA Rams this offseason. He highlighted Adams’s play-making abilities, breaking down his game tape for the whole team.
Davante Adams is 32 years old, and his most productive days are behind him, but he is NOT washed. Over the last five seasons, he finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 10th, and 11th in fantasy points for wide receivers. Adams’ current ADP is WR17; his regression costs are already baked into his draft price.
You might not believe this. The Rams ranked 28th last year in Average Depth of Target (ADOT). According to sumersports.com, their ADOT was a meager 6.6. Adams will stretch the field and open up the middle for Puka. Stafford should thrive. Fingers crossed his magical camper at Ram’s training camp keeps serving Stafford the get-right juice, wink, wink.
Adams changes this Rams offense, increasing the vertical and redzone attack strategies. I do not expect him to outscore Puka week-to-week, but there is no denying Adams’s touchdown upside. I am projecting Adams for 8 touchdowns and close to 230 fantasy points. He’s a solid WR2 you can build your team around.
Xavier Worthy – Kansas City Chiefs – WR22
As I am typing this, Xavier Worthy’s ADP, which is a myth, is absolutely skyrocketing. And all this would be bothering me to not end of course, if ADP were real, but it is not, so, phew, all is well.
But really, folks, can we just try and forget about the only player for the Chiefs who actually showed up for the Super Bowl? Is that too much to ask the obsessive fantasy football community? Just let him fall, fall, fall, into my hands!
Unless you aren’t up to date on your podcasts, we are at the stage of Travis Kelce’s NFL career when he is having Taylor Swift on as a guest. He’s cooked. Rashee Rice is about to do HARD TIME for playing bumper cars on the Texas freeway. Video emerged of him fleeing the scene with his boys. An NFL suspension looms.
Worthy should step right into the role he created for himself in the Chief’s offense last season. In the final six games Worthy played last year, including the playoffs, he averaged 21.7 FPG. Only Ja’Marr Chase averaged more fantasy points at the wide receiver position last season. He averaged 23.7. No one else managed to crack 20.
Worthy missed some time at the start of training camp due to a concussion. This week, he returned to the Chiefs’ practice. He made several big catches, including a contested touchdown catch between two defenders in the end zone. He stood out throughout the practice film I watched as completely uncoverable. The man is going to be a menace this year in fantasy.
I know that I bemoaned his ever-rising non-existent ADP. The reality is that he has WR1 upside every week. This is in a Chiefs’ offense that has been devoid of playmakers without Rashee Rice. According to Sports Illustrated‘s Albert Breer, Rice is set to be suspended 5-6 games to start the NFL season.
Worthy should produce WR1 numbers for at least the first 6 weeks of the season. He slides into a top-end WR2 with weekly WR1 upside the rest of the season. I do not like that in this imaginary world of ADP, people are so greedy. However, do what you must do to get your guy. Otherwise, they will get you.
DeVonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles – WR25
Third straight year DeVonta Smith has appeared in my WR2 Theory article. I refuse to give up on the possibility of the Slim Reaper cracking the top 10 again like he did in 2022. That season, he finished as the overall WR9 and scored over 250 FP. The Reaper is primed for a return. He finished WR27 last season and is being drafted this season around that ADP.
Let BIGG WR fade the Slim Reaper a third straight year and see how their empires crumble before him. He will lead us into the “promise land”, again!! His long touchdown catch in the Super Bowl was just a taste of what’s to come this season.
A.J. Brown is a registered GROWN ASS MAN. I will keep any and all shit talking purely speculative in nature and say that I hope A.J. Brown enjoys his book club this NFL season. If he needs a suggestion, I would recommend Catch-22, by Joseph Heller. Soul-stirring stuff.
Brown is currently nursing a hamstring injury, which isn’t something new for the veteran wideout. While Brown is away, the Slim Reaper will play, or so the reports from Eagles camps foretell. According to reports, Smith excelled in joint practices against the Cleveland Browns last week. Hauling in a touchdown and gobbling up Jalen Hurts targets all over the field.
Smith had an elite 28.6% target share in a target-concentrated, high-scoring Eagles’ offense last season. Smith saw the 17th most slot targets in the NFL last season, and his fantasy points per target, 2.24, ranked 12th best according to Player Profiler.
If Brown misses any time this season, Smith immediately becomes an insta-WR1. Brown averaged 1.4 more fantasy points per game than Smith last year. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that this is finally the season that Smith surpasses Brown as the WR1.
Smith’s ADP, which is still a myth, is hovering around the middle of the fifth round. This makes him a steal compared to his potential upside. Currently, he is being drafted after Rashee Rice and Courtland Sutton. My money is all in on him outscoring them both this season. I’ll be drafting him in the 4th round. If he isn’t kidnapped by a BIGG WR operative in my draft, hoarding wide receivers.
George Pickens – Dallas Cowboys – WR27
The unheralded arrival of fired Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offensive coordinator was the beginning of the end for Pickens in Pittsburgh.
Pickens was traded to the Dallas Cowboys on May 7th, 2025, for a third-round pick. The Cowboys struggled offensively in 2024, averaging -0.11 EPA per passing play, good for the 28th worst in the NFL. Dak Prescott desperately needs another target to keep CeeDee Lamb in the good graces of the Best Ball Bros.
George Pickens has the potential to be a repeat breakout WR2, after already accomplishing WR2 Theory glory in 2023. Diontae Johnson was never the same after that season. Pickens wasn’t the same either.
Last year, the Cowboys’ WR2 was Jalen Tolbert, who scored 152 FP and averaged 8.9 FPG. Pickens has averaged 11.7 FP throughout his career. Though he has never played in an offense with a prolific passer like Prescott.
For the record, I am not predicting that Pickens outproduces CeeDee Lamb this season. I am predicting that consistently benefiting from single coverage looks, Pickens will have a consistent WR2 ceiling.
Pickens has been previously known for diva levels of buffoonery. Apparently, he has shed the above infamous draft night meme persona and has been reported to be run-blocking in Cowboys’ training camp. This is unheard of for Pickens and is probably keeping Arthur Smith up raging at night.
I’m not in love with his ADP, which we all know is a myth. But I am looking for him at the end of the fifth, beginning of the sixth round.
Jameson Williams – Detroit Lions – WR28
Jameson Williams was being drafted as the WR49 last season when I stated my WR2 Theory case for him. Did you all listen? No. BIGG WR had their heavy hands suppressing the truth with Sam LaPorta propaganda. He went off the board at pick 33 as the TE2 at the end of the third round.
The levels of subterfuge were extreme. The whole of the fantasy community swallowed them hook, line, and sinker. These tactics by BIGTE were way ahead of their time. Don’t even get me started with Bully TE Bros. Those degenerates are willing to risk it all for 12.6 FPG. Hold me back, bro!
Jameson sizzled last season, finishing as the overall WR22, with 212.2 FP. Currently, he is being drafted below his ceiling and at his floor. Which is exactly how BIGG WR wants it. They pump Amon-Ra, and then secretly draft Williams because they are playing both sides. More on that later.
The ADP gap last season was 44 wide receivers. Amon-Ra finished 17 wide receivers ahead of Williams in 2024. Fantasy footballers missed it by 27 wide receivers. Not your man Nimble. I saw the value after “Crunching the Numbers.”
The Lions ranked first in play success rate at 49.28%. They ranked second in both EPA for passing and total passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns, with 39. Williams scored seven touchdowns last season, and he has the potential to score more this season.
Williams’ stats from 2024: 91 targets, 58 receptions for 1001 yards with a 17.3 YPC average. Williams didn’t even see 100 targets last year. Sounds like a Ben Johnson conspiracy if you ask me. I’m projecting Williams for an increased role in the Lions offense and between 115-120 targets. He will feast.
Tier 2
Rounds 6–8
Starters
Travis Hunter – Jacksonville Jaguars – WR31
The Jacksonville Jaguars were a mess last season. They fired Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Peterson after losing 18 of his last 23 games. The franchise replaced him with the former Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator, Liam Coen.
The Jaguars then traded up in the 2025 NFL draft. They moved from the 5th overall pick to the 2nd overall pick. This ensured they drafted the Heisman Trophy winner. Coen has big plans for Hunter, stating that ” It is absolutely happening (Travis Hunter playing both sides of the ball).” He’s playing both sides. Mac would be so proud.
This might scare off your league mates and depress his value. BIGG WR hates the idea of a wide receiver playing defense. It scares them. They can’t mentally wrap their minds around the fact that a wide receiver would betray other wide receivers like that. They don’t understand the Hunter’s true greatness, of course.
According to Matt Harmon’s reception perception, Travis Hunter is “elite.”
- 92nd percentile success rate vs. man
- 97th percentile success rate vs. zone
- 97th percentile success rate vs. press
These numbers are against defensive backs in college, not the pros, but they are still almost too good to believe. If you know what I mean.
I understand why fantasy footballers are hesitant to draft Hunter, given the presence of Brian Thomas Jr.. But Coen plans to run Hunter primarily out of the slot. Brian Thomas Jr. lines up as an “X” receiver (primarily on the outside) on the vast majority of his snaps.
Coen has a history of creating fantasy success for his slot receivers. Under Coen, both Cooper Kupp in 2022 and Chris Godwin in 2024 were fantasy standouts, averaging 22.4 and 19.7 fantasy points per game, respectively, while primarily lining up in the slot.
These are absolutely secrets BIGG WR and your leaguemates DO NOT want you to know about. They will tell you to draft Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round this year. He was being drafted in the 9th round as WR48 last year.
Rome Odunze – Chicago Bears – WR34
Last year I faded rookie Rome Odunze and Caleb Williams and the whole Chicago Bears offense. After a disappointing rookie campaign for them both, the Bears hired Lions offensive guru Ben Johnson as their new head coach.
Johnson has been credited with helping Jared Goff elevate his game to the next level in Detroit. He now hopes to do the same in Chicago with Williams. The elevation of Rome Odunze’s game is vital to their success.
Rome Odunze fits the BIGG WR model, but you can draft him at his pre-breakout, low price of WR34. I think people will shy away from him more in home leagues after seeing Caleb Williams’ struggles last season.
I have faith in Ben Johnson to coach up both his star quarterback and his 1st round wide receiver. The reports out of Bear’s camp have been mixed on Williams, but positive for Williams’ early connection with Odunze.
According to Harrison Graham from Bears Now by Chat Sports, “The Caleb Williams to Rome Odunze connection is to grow and blossom as training camp progresses.” Williams has been looking to Odunze as his go-to red zone as they become more comfortable together.
Bears media is predicting that Odunze is going to unseat D.J. Moore as the WR one on the Bears this season. The speculation is that Moore slides into the “Deebo Samuel role” this season, leaving Odunze as the big down field playmaker.
My prediction is that Odunze slides a bit in the home league draft. But currently, he is going off the board in the middle of round seven. If he continues to develop with Williams and the narrative grows steam, his non-existent ADP will be rising.
Jordan Addison – Minnesota Vikings – WR40
Jordan Addison has played two seasons in the NFL and has finished as the overall WR23 and WR21. He is averaging 217 fantasy points per season and 13.6 FP per game. This is fringe WR2 territory, and he is all but forgotten, buried in the 8th round of PPR drafts.
The reason he is being forgotten isn’t a mystery. Addison is scheduled to miss the first three games of the NFL season. This is due to legal issues he faced from a 2024 incident. Fantasy footballers have been fading him ever since his suspension dropped on August 5th.
In June, Addison was being drafted in the back half of the 6th round. Hopefully, by the time your home league draft rolls around, he’s dropping further. Let everyone else pass on him and stash him until week 4.
Addison ranked 10th in red zone targets and 11th in deep targets last season, according to Player Profiler. Entering his third NFL season, Addison already has scored 20 touchdowns. His 10 total touchdowns ranked 5th best for wide receivers in 2024. He also scored 10 touchdowns in 2023. It’s what he does.
Bottom line. Jordan Addison is a WR2 that you can draft at WR4 prices. If anything were to happen to Justin Jefferson, like his 2023 hamstring issue, Addison would be primed for a huge breakout.
For now, though, let him fall through the cracks of your draftboard and into your lap in the later rounds. I’ll take all the upside.
Ricky Pearsall – San Francisco 49ers – WR42
Ricky Pearsall is hot right now! As I am writing this very sentence, a video on YouTube featuring him flashed on my screen with the headline “CHEAT CODE.” Clearly, the secret is out. The 49ers are going to heavily feature the second-year wideout to start the season.
Nick Wagoner of 4For4.com reports that “Ricky Pearsall most likely to begin season as 49ers’ WR1.” And that “Offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak said by the end of last season Pearsall was the team’s best receiver when it came to beating man coverage.”
We saw the burst last season from Pearsall during the final weeks of the season. In weeks 17 and 18, he caught 14 of 18 targets for 210 yards and two touchdowns. He scored 28.7 and 18.9 FP in those games, finishing WR7 and WR14 those weeks. The upside is absolutely there.
Fat Deebo is gone. Traded to the Washington Commanders. Brandon Aiyuk is hurt and definitely not Shanahan’s favorite son at this point. Even Jauan Jennings is fucking it up by holding in while he nurses a “calf strain.” It might just be Pearsall and George Kittle running routes at this point. BIGG WR is furious!
Pearsall flashed last season, and we know the 49ers offense is set to rebound after a down season in 2025. Christian McCaffrey is finally 100% healthy, and Brock Purdy is a top 12 fantasy QB. CMC and Kittle can’t catch all the passes.
Pearsall is being drafted as a mid-range WR4. Last year, this was the “Golden WR Zone.” Picks 38-55 produced eight top 24 scorers. The data trend is overwhelming. I will be drafting either Pearsall or Jennings on all my teams this season.
Tier 3
Rounds 9 – 11
Flex Options
Mathew Golden – Green Bay Packers – WR45
Speaking of the “Golden WR Zone,” I present to you all Packers rookie wide receiver, Matthew Golden. The Green Bay Packers selected Golden with the 23rd overall pick in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Being drafted at WR45, his ADP fits the model.
Golden joins a young Packers wide receiving corps. Highlighted by second-year standout Jayden Reed, the Packers’ youth movement at wide receiver has produced mixed results. Romeo Doubs has flashed a touchdown upside, but was inconsistent last year.
Perennial sleeper Christian Watson, who is always being offered as the most tantalizing of best-ball fruit, summer after summer, is sadly hurt to start the season. Matthew Golden is capitalizing on the playing time and is running as the team’s most dominant wideout.
Packers insider Zach Kruse shared “I haven’t heard the entirety of the Packers organization talk about a rookie like they have with Matthew Golden in a long time,” Kruse added “Every time someone is asked, the answer is some variation of, ‘Yeah, he’s good, and he’s only scratching the surface of his potential.”
Golden is currently starting alongside Jayden Reed in 12 personnel packages. He should be the most targeted Packers wide receiver by season’s end. Let your league mates fade rookie wide receivers with high draft capital. We know better than to trust sheep brainwashed by BIGG WR.
Emeka Egbuka – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR47
Emeka Egbuka is one of fantasy football analysts’ favorite rookie wide receivers this season. Who can blame the hype, though? Baker passed for 41 touchdowns last season. Chris Godwin is starting the season on the PUP list, and Mike Evans can’t catch all the passes. Or can he?
Egbuka is extremely talented and projects as a high-floor, plug-and-play option. He is ideal for teams needing a dependable slot receiver. Egbuka has been favorably compared to Keenan Allen and Chris Godwin.
He slides into the slot role in the Buccaneers’ offense. Last season, Godwin was a top-three fantasy scorer in this same role before he dislocated his ankle and missed the rest of the season.
The news from training camp has been overwhelmingly positive, with Tampa Bay Buccaneers SI reporter Darius Hayes reporting, ” Emeka Egbuka makes strong first impression in Buccaneers debut.”
Hayes also added, “With the right fit alongside Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield, the rookie wide receiver showed he has the tools to carve out a role quickly.” These are the training camp reports you want to hear and also hide from your league mates.
Egbuka is currently being drafted in the middle of the 9th round, as a flex/bench option in PPR leagues. I’m comfortable drafting him there, and if he slips to the 10th, consider it a gift from the fantasy gods.
Darnell Mooney – Atlanta Falcons – WR51
Darnell Mooney was eight yards shy of a 1,000-yard season last year. I’ll wait while you fact-check me. Because I didn’t believe it either the first time I read his 2024 stat line. Mooney was drafted as overall WR63, and he finished WR31.
Of course, BIGG WR sees his WR3 range finish from last season and drafts him in the WR5 range. Makes total sense if you are conspiring to depress his fantasy value. Maybe that’s the play all along…
It’s all making sense to me now. Inflate the value of WR1s, causing an underappreciation for WR2s, WR3s, and all subsequent wide receivers. Then circle back in the later rounds and draft these depressed wide receivers as stacking options to fortify their Best Ball entries. This desperate attempt to maximize their correlation has obscured the true value of all wide receivers.
It’s a wickedly brilliant scheme to take over fantasy football that we will thwart, thanks to WR2 Theory. Back to Darnell Mooney.
The uncertainty surrounding the play of second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is partially to blame. An early training camp injury has also set back his ADP, which, say it with me, is a myth.
Mooney is being drafted at the end of the 10th, beginning of the 11th round. It would not be surprising to see him fall into the 12th or later in home leagues. Wait on him and be patient this season. He won’t cost you much.
Tier 4
Depth
Rounds 12–15
Jayden Higgins – Houston Texans – WR54
Stefon Diggs moved on and Tank Dell is still recovering from a complex knee injury that should sideline him all season. The Houston Texans basically put up a “WR Help Wanted” sign this past offseason. And then Jayden Higgins was drafted with the 34th overall pick in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Higgins Player Profiler comp is Allen Robinson. Yes. That Allen Robinson. The same Allen Robinson who helped Blake Bortles pretend he was an NFL QB. C.J. Stroud is light-years ahead of that old drunk, so I love the comp for Higgins. To the moon!!
Higgins is a perfect complement to true Alpha WR1 Nico “The Truth” Collins. The Texans want to throw the football schematically. They ran 11 personnel, which is three wide receivers, on 62% of the plays. There’s a clear path to Higgins playing at least 70% of the snaps this season.
Higgins has the NFL wide receiver hardware. He stands 6’4″ and weighs 215lbs. He’s also only 21 years old, so he’s on the rise. On the surface, his ADP appears to be high, but round 12 is perfect. He’s an easy click every time.
Marvin Mims – Denver Broncos – WR57
Marvin Mims has been the talk of Denver Broncos training camp! According to Billy Heyen:
“Mims is being asked to step into a more consistent, reliable offensive role. A season ago, Mims played as a WR outside just 50% of the time. But in the Broncos’ first preseason game, 15 of Mims’ 16 snaps were spent as a wide guy, not in the slot, according to fantasy analyst Hayden Winks.
“A season ago, the Broncos did a lot of gadget stuff with Mims, from pop passes to screens. They can still do that, to an extent, with him out wide. But the implication is they want him running down the field and making plays for Nix, too.”
It’ times like these that you hope and pray to god that your fantasy league mates don’t read and appreciate Billy Heyen’s work or WR2 Theory. Because this kind of information feels like insider trading to me.
Mims is electric and, given the opportunities to run more outside/downfield routes, he’s the perfect WR2 Theory pick in the 13th round of your draft. He’ll be on all my teams.
Cedric Tillman – Cleveland Browns – WR65
Cedric Tillman gets an honorable mention primarily because Joe Flacco gets the job done passing. I am not sure how long he will remain the Browns’ starting quarterback, but Tillman is undervalued at WR65.
In the four games Tillman started in 2024, he averaged 18.6 FPG when given over 80% of the snaps. His best game came against the division rival Baltimore Ravens. Tillman lit them up in Week 8 for seven catches on nine targets for 99 yards and two touchdowns.
Tillman sustained a season-ending concussion in Week 12 but is back healthy to start the 2025 season. Tillman is going to be a contributor on a Browns’ offense that desperately needs playmakers. He’s not s sexy pick, but he will outperform his imaginary ADP.
Wan’Dale Robinson – New York Giants – WR69
I’ll keep this short and sweet. Wan’Dale Robinson is not going to win you your league. Wan’Dale Robinson is not going to challenge Malik Nabers for WR1 status on the New York Giants in 2025. But the man is being criminally overlooked in fantasy football drafts.
WR69? I mean, cool, we get it. But not really. He finished overall WR36 last season with the cast of The Sopranos throwing to him. This is just wrong. Completely and utterly ridiculously wrong.
Wan’Dale averaged 10.7 FP last season, a low-end weekly WR3. Now he’s being drafted as an overall WR6. BIGG WR strikes again. Do you not see how the operation works? Again, they are playing both sides. Dammit!! Where’s Mac when you need him?
Tier 5
Round 15+
Free Agents/Stashes
All of the following wide receivers are worth monitoring in training camp and into the regular season. The rookies will probably start off slow, but there are opportunities and paths to fantasy relevance as the season unfolds.
Michael Wilson – Arizona Cardinals – WR78
Jalen Coker – Carolina Panthers – WR83
Rookies to watch:
Jalen Royals – Kansas City Chiefs – WR79
Isaac TeSlaa – Detroit Lions – WR81
Dont’e Thornton – Las Vegas Raiders – WR90
Tory Horton – Seattle Seahawks – WR92
Elic Ayomanor – Tennessee Titans – WR80
Thank you to everyone who checked out this article! Please follow and subscribe to my Fantasy Football channel on YouTube!
What are the fantasy experts saying about WR2 Theory?
WR2 Theory’s Rotoviz Peer Review
Shout out to Jeff Matson from Rotoviz. He took the time earlier this offseason to write a feature article showcasing WR2 Theory. He tested whether it’s a viable strategy for finding wide receiver value in your fantasy drafts. The results did not disappoint. Jeff writes:
“Next, I went back and pulled the data from 2022 to confirm this theory. In that year, the results were less pronounced. However, they confirmed that drafting a young WR2 or WR3 on a high-powered offense is optimal. This strategy is the best way to find potential sleepers. WR2 Theory in 2022 identified valuable sleepers such as DeVonta Smith and Brandon Aiyuk. It’s not just related to rookies. Chris Godwin also met this criteria. He was drafted as WR27 and ended up as WR11 in his sixth (age 26) season behind 29-year-old Mike Evans.”
Jeff has seen the light, and he has the data to back it up in his own handy charts. He identifies the most important trend of them all, targeting young WR2s on high-passing-volume offenses. I said it wasn’t football rocket science earlier. However, it is math. It’s an edge that not many fantasy footballers have realized yet. This edge is ripe to be exploited, particularly in home league formats.
Nimble w/Numbers 