The Turkey Bowl!!

Subtitle: The Hit Machine

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 7

11/26/2019

This year I am thankful for the Turkey Bowl! For those who don’t know, the Turkey Bowl is a yearly spectacle that showcases the long since shattered dreams of grown adult men, who are still grasping at the glory of their football youth. As turkeys are getting stuffed, men all around the country are amassing in public parks, open fields and in big back yards to play football. The game is tackle, with full offensive and defensive lines, 1 point for TD, no field goals (we were crazy enough to implement full kick-offs the first few years) and there are no ties. There will be blood. A few concussions for sure. You cannot walk for the next few days. It’s football at its purest. It’s as American as pumpkin pie.

If you won’t mind letting me wax poetic, my illustrious Turkey Bowl career lasted from 1998-2005. I was a master play-caller and regularly brought index cards with hand-drawn plays into the huddle. It was like I invented the wheel route (thank you Madden 2000). But I wasn’t all brains back then. I lettered in varsity high school football (impressive I know) and was always down for a tussle on the gridiron. During one Thanksgiving game, I made a seminary student say what was probably his first official curse word in frustration. He bellowed, “What the hell” as muscled I him over onto his back to sack the QB. Most of the guys I played against over the years didn’t know how insecure and full of anger I was, which means they never stood a chance. I was a defensive monster and I liked it rough. I wasn’t going to chase anyone down, but if we met in the hole, you were going to become part of my Turkey Bowl highlight tape. My best hit ever was against an Italian Rugby player named Andre who was built like a tank. With me as his lead blocker one year, he beasted out and scored 3 touchdowns. Defenders were bouncing off him like he was Bo Jackson in Tecmo Super Bowl. He was unstoppable and I was a little jealous this newcomer was stealing a bit of my Turkey Bowl shine. I had played high school football dammit! The following year I made sure that we were not on the same team. One of the first plays from scrimmage, Andre took the hand-off and cut inside the B gap. I was playing middle linebacker, so I could get a running start. I had waited a year for this! Adrenaline surging, I shot into the hole and completely obliterated a 240 lbs statue of a man, while of course yelling out a primeval scream that attracted no attention whatsoever. The best of times!!

Ironically, Andre moved to Australia, played in a competitive American football league and nicknamed himself the “Hit Machine.” I like to think that each time he laced them up Downunder, he just couldn’t shake the image of me standing over him that fantastic Turkey Bowl morning, and deep down inside, he knew who the real “Hit Machine” was.

Andre

Sadly, my Turkey Bowl glory days are behind me now. I hung up the cleats and threw away the mouthpiece years ago. I’ve been married to a beautiful lady for 14 years, have two amazing daughters in elementary school, and my hands have grown soft from typing all day long. But, I will never forget my past Turkey Bowl triumphs and I won’t let Andre either.

Now onto business. I am so thankful that there are three NFL games on Thanksgiving so that I can get my DFS on! Here is a special Thanksgiving edition of Weekly Best Lineup to wet your beak before we get to Sunday’s main slate.

Weekly Best Lineup

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBDrew Brees$8,500
RBDevin Singletary$6,600
RBDavid Montgomery$5,900
WRMichael Thomas$9,200
WRJulio Jones$7,800
WRJohn Brown$6,600
TEJared Cook$6,700
FLXLogan Thomas$4,700
DSTBills$4,000

I decided to stack Brees and Thomas, which limited my RB selections to lower-priced rookies. Hoping that they both lives up to their 3rd round potential after being drafted this past spring with back-to-back picks. I like going top-heavy with Julio Jones, John Brown and Jared Cook who all have the potential to haul in a TD. My flex and defense were what was left when you stack the most expensive two players combined.

Hopefully, you all have a great Thanksgiving celebrating with your loved ones. My in-laws don’t believe in TVs or football and naturally, they will be joining us for Thanksgiving this year. So think of me while you are stuffing your faces with turkey and mashed potatoes and are thoroughly enjoying your holiday GPPs and cash games. I’ll be getting caught up on all the latest Boomer news that I didn’t know I missed. So glad I’m sober. They’ll be so much to digest.

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

P.S. “This is a Robbery” will be updated and addressed in the next issue. Let’s just say that it was a blood bath!!

This is a Robbery!!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 6 

11/23/2019

I’m not sure if “legally” I should be saying this, but hell here goes. I mean, it’s just the Internet. No one really gets in trouble for anything that happens here. It’s all fantasy. Don’t tell me you have no idea what the “F” in “DFS” stands for. Well, this weekend (checks to make sure the wife isn’t coming down the basement stairs) sh*ts getting real. I’m Mr. Green and I am going to commit a robbery. The boys and I’ve been planning this job all week. The team has been assembled, we’ve cased the joint and gone over the plan a million times. Everyone knows their role. In and out. Real quick. No mistakes and if we pull it off, we all walk away with piles of cash and then fade into obscurity like Kesyer Soze. Without a trace. It’s full proof.

My best friend turns 40 today and tomorrow we are celebrating by invading our local casino and sportsbook for a day of teasers, fat stacks, river cards, steaks, parlays, winners, losers and robberies! Here’s the plan. It’s pretty simple. The Lions are a measly -3.5. against the expansion Washington football team and they are by far the worst franchise and team in the NFL. The whole crew is betting the Lions and legally steal money from the sportsbook. Sorry to disappoint those thinking that I was breaking bad so early in my DFS writing career. Make sure to follow along at @NimblewNumbers on Twitter for all the action!

Winners!

Speaking of a robbery, let’s take a look at some of the DFS winners who took home all our cash last week. Analyzing this winning line-up, we will deconstruct the roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal line-up for week 12.

Winning lineup for Week 11 Fanduel $130K Sun NFL Dive ($1 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 11 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • In an upset, there no QB/WR stack for the winners. I did notice the the winners featured a QB/RB stack and a QB/RB/TE stack, but I’m not sure this correlates with their victories. If you stacked Josh Allen and John Brown, you did it right in week 11.
  • If I have to tell you to pay up front for CMC, you are doing DFS wrong. (I’m just going to keep leaving this bullet in, until he doesn’t score 20+ a week.)
  • John Brown and Michael Thomas are the only 2 WRs to have over 50 receiving yards in every game this season. John Brown and Michael Thomas.
  • Calvin Ridley was featured in both winning lineups and also in my Low cost/high value plays for week 10.
  • The best low cost, high value plays of week 11 includes the aforementioned, John Brown ($5,900), who returned a value of 5.1x . Josh Allen ($7,800) returned 4.3x the value. Ryan Griffin ($6,300) led the way for for TEs with 19.4 fantasy points and a value 4.0x.

NFL Week 12 Primer

Mike Tagliere and Bobby Sylvester create some of the best fantasy football content available in the FF community. If you don’t have the FantasyPros Chrome plug-in installed on your browser, are you even really playing fantasy football? Today I want to highlight the incredible FantasyPros Week 12 Primer. It is an indispensable tool that I use each week to help construct my DFS player pool and build my lineups. Read it each week and your fantasy football team will thank me later (but mostly Mike and Bobby).

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Russell
Wilson
$8,200
Matt
Ryan
$7,900
Jameis
Winston
$7,600
Baker
Mayfield
$7,500


WR
Tyler
Lockett
$7,400

DK
Metcalf
$6,700
Julio
Jones
$8,400

Calvin
Ridley
$6,700
Mike
Evans
$8,000

Chris
Godwin
$7,800
Odel
Beckham
$7,000 

Jarvis
Landry
$6,900

High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


RB
Christian
McCaffery
$10,500
Derrick
Henry
$8,400
Alvin
Kamara
$8,300
Nick
Chubb
$8,200

WR
Michael
Thomas
$9,200
Julio
Jones
$8,400
Mike
Evans
$8,000
Julian
Edelman 
$7,500

TE
Darren
Waller
$6,200
Zach
Ertz
$6,100

DST
Detroit
Lions
$5,000
Pittsburg
Steelers
$5,000



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Sam
Darnold
$7,400
Derek
Carr
$7,400
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$7,200 

RB
Bo
Scarbrough
$6,700
Phillip
Lindsay
$6,300
Patrick
Laird
$4,900

WR
Jamison
Crowder
$6,500
D.J.
Moore
$6,400
James
Washington
$6,100

WR
Taylor
Gabriel
$5,600
Russell
Gage
$5,300
Cole
Beasley
$5,300

TE
Ryan
Griffin
$5,400
Ben
Watson
$5,300
Dallas
Goedert
$5,200 
DSTDallas
$3,200

Weekly Best Lineup

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBMatt Ryan$7,900
RBChristian McCaffery$10,500
RBAlvin Kamara$8,300
WRCalvin Ridley$6,700
WRJarvis Landry$7,800
WRTaylor Gabriel$5,600
TEBen Watson$5,600
FLXMiles Sanders$5,600
DSTDallas Cowboys$3,200

I wish you all the best in week 12!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the outstanding work that Mike Tagliere and Bobby Sylvester do at FantasyPros.

Mike Tagliere
@MikeTagliereNFL
Lead NFL Writer/Analyst for @FantasyPros
Co-host on the FantasyPros football podcast. Top-6 ranker twice in
@Fantasypros accuracy contest. Aspiring novelist.
fantasypros.com/author/mike-ta…
Bobby Sylvester
@bobbyfantasypro
Podcast Host & Fantasy Analyst for FantasyPros

St. Louis (Metro East)
podcast.fantasypros.com

Posted byJesse SimpsonNovember 9, 2019Posted inUncategorizedLeave a commenton Establish the StackEditEstablish the StackPosted byJesse SimpsonNovember 16, 2019Posted inUncategorizedTags:DFSFantasy FootballFFFootballNFLWinnersLeave a commenton OMG! Look at that Ratio!EditOMG! Look at that Ratio!

OMG! Look at that Ratio!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 5 

11/16/2019

85. That is the number of hours that I worked this week. I get paid for 40. That means that I worked for less than half price this week. As the Twitter says, “I got Ratioed!” Don’t feel too bad for me though. As I sit down to write this, my wife just left with the girls for a birthday party. I have four free hours to do what I love, write DFS. (Which, nobody in-particular asked me to do, so there is that.) Pink Floyd is blasting, I’ve built a raging fire to keep me warm, my basement is cleaned, my beer is cold and it’s time to pick winners.

Full transparency, my DFS ratio last week saw me come out on top, up a staggering $0.25. I definitely already blew through the winnings on a Monday night Hail Mary GPP play. Easy come easy go. Winning at DFS, especially max entry GPP tournaments, requires building a strong core group of players to anchor your lineups. Last week my core player pool was too large and not strategically focused enough to support overall success. This week, I am going to streamline the plays and shrink the player pools to include a core group of players who have breakout potential on Sunday. Looking for redemption, armed with what we have learned, we set our sights upon an intriguing set of week 11 NFL match-ups.

My Best Plays of Week 10

Pos Player Points Value 
QBLamar Jackson33.423.9x
RBDerrick Henry32.14.6x
WRChristian Kirk34.86.1x
TETravis Kelce172.5x
DSTBaltimore244.8x

Lamar Jackson was in 25% of my lineups and I am kicking myself for not going 100% Lamar. Live and learn. Lamar is in your lineup against all terrible defenses (see Miami). Derrick Henry got lose and I still don’t think it is fair that a man that big, can run that fast. He is a beast. Christian Kirk scored his first, second, and third TD of the year against the Buc’s defense. Ryan Finley. Why? I’ll tell you why, to score the most points for your DFS team. Big fan of your work Ryan. I’ll be taking a special interest in you again, later in this article.

My Worst Plays of Week 10

Pos Player Points Value 
QBDrew Brees11.481.4x
RBTodd Gurley7.31.0x
WRCooper Kupp4.30.7x
TEMike Gesicki2.30.4x
DSTChiefs51.4x

Raise your hand if you saw Dree Brees being sacked 6 times by Hotlanta’s vaunted defense. Cooper Kupp was 33% owned last week. With 0 fantasy football points scored, there is a chance you were among the handful of the DFS Twitter who reacted like this…

Iky Gesicki. And the Chief’s run defense continues to Jekyll and Hyde. Trust no one.

Winners! Yes Please!

Onto the winners! I am only featuring one winning line-up this week because it was good enough to win multiple Fanduel GPP tournaments. Analyzing his winning line-up, we will deconstruct his roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal line-up for week 11.

Winning lineup for Week 10 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Kyler Murray/Christian Kirk stack was deadly. Imagine doing something like that against the Buc’s defense. Any given Sunday, I guess.
  • If I have to tell you to pay up front for CMC, you are doing DFS wrong. (I’m just going to keep leaving this bullet in, until he doesn’t score 20+ a week.)
  • Derrick Henry carried 23 times for 188 YDS and 2 TDs. GIVE HIM THE DAMN BALL!
  • Tyreek Hill had 11 REC on 19 TGTS for 157 YDS and 1 TD. So many targets.
  • The best low cost, high value plays of week 10 includes the aforementioned, Christian Kirk ($5,700), who returned a value of 6.1x . Darius Slayton ($5,600) returned 5.2x the value. Ronald Jones ($6,300) was a good value play at RB with a value 3.0x.

NFL Week 11 Implied Team Totals 

I use this tool to identify which teams are expected (by Vegas) to score the most points, and then I identify players who are expected to be featured prominently by their teams offense and work them into my lineups.

https://eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/index.html

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Lamar
Jackson
$8,800
Drew
Brees
$8,300
Dak
Prescott
$8,100
Kyle
Allen
$7,200


WR
*Mark
Andrews
$6,900

Hollywood
Brown
$5,600
Michael
Thomas
$8,700

Tre’quan
Smith
$4,900
Amari
Cooper
$8,100

Michael
Gallup
$6,700
Curtis
Samuel
$6,300 

D.J.
Moore
$6,000

*QB/TE stack

High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Lamar
Jackson
$8,800
Drew
Brees
$8,300
Dak
Prescott
$8,100
Jameis
Winston
$7,600

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$10,500
Zeke
Elliott
$8,400
Josh
Jacobs
$8,000
Leonard
Fournette
$7,200

WR
Michael
Thomas
$9,000
Mike
Evans 
$8,200
Chris
Godwin
$8,000
Julio
Jones
$7,800

TE
Mark
Andrews
$6,900
Darren
Waller
$6,700
Jared
Cook
$6,000

DST
49ers
$4,900
Minn
$4,700



Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Matt
Ryan
$7,600
Derek
Carr
$7,400
Kyle
Allen
$7,200 

RB
Tevin
Coleman
$6,700
Joe
Mixon
$6,600
Brian
Hill
$5,900

WR
Tyrell
Williams
$6,200
D.J.
Moore
$6,000
Mohamed
Sanu
$5,800

WR
Hunter
Renfrow
$5,700
Calvin
Ridley 
$5,500
Terry
McLaurin 
$5,500

TE
O.J.
Howard
$5,300
Noah
Fant
$5,100
Greg
Olsen
$5,100 
DSTDallas
$4,100

New Feature: This week I introduce my weekly best line-up. This is the line-up that I will be playing in single entry tournaments and all of the smaller GPP tournaments as well.

Weekly Best Lineup

POSPlayer NamePrice
QBJameis Winston$7,600
RBJosh Jacobs$8,000
RBTevin Coleman$6,700
WRMike Evans$8,200
WRJulio Jones$7,800
WRMichael Gallup$6,700
TEO.J. Howard$5,300
FLXMiles Sanders$5,600
DSTDallas Cowboys$4,100

I wish you all the best in week 11!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

This weeks shout out goes to me. I’ve earned it. Check me out at https://twitter.com/NimblewNumbers
Weekly DFS Content – Winners

Posted byJesse SimpsonNovember 9, 2019Posted inUncategorizedLeave a commenton Establish the StackEditEstablish the Stack

Establish the Stack

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 4 

11/9/2019

Work. It gets in the way of pretty much everything I enjoy doing. I had originally planned on writing a stand alone article reflecting on my winning picks from last week, but, yep you guessed it, work totally got in the way. They say do what you love, so that’s why I’ve worked my mid-week reflections into my weekly winners article.

My Best Plays of Week 9

Position Player Points Value 
QBRussell Wilson39.224.6x
RBChristian McCaffery36.13.7x
WRTyler Lockett33.74.5x
TEZach Ertz20.83.5x
DSTPittsburgh 194.9x

The double QB/WR/WR stack of Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and MK Metcalf was a must start against the Bucs pass funnel defense. McCaffery is a must start every week in DFS. Full Stop. Zach Ertz got rolling with 11 targets for 9 receptions and his first TD in a month. Pittsburgh was a sneaky play coming in at $3,900 last week. You are welcome!

My Worst Plays of Week 9

Position Player Points Value 
QBAaron Rodger12.941.6x
RBAaron Jones3.40.4x
WRRobby Anderson4.30.7x
TEDarren Waller 6.20.9x
DSTSeahawks30.6x

A good leader takes responsibilities for their actions and owns their mistakes. As a good leader, I obviously blame Aaron Rodgers for throwing 35 times and averaging a whopping 5.17 Air Yards per throw. Keep throwing 4 yard dig routes to DeVante Adams if you want to pass for under 170 yards each week Aaron. The emergence of Hunter Renfrow in Oakland has capped Darren Waller’s weekly upside for the time being. Hopefully he breaks out towards the tail end of the season, as he faces one of the easiest schedule for TE the rest of the way. Has any defense successfully managed to corral both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this season? I should have known better. Adjustments to the algorithm have already been made.

Winners, Yes Please

Onto the winners! I am only featuring one winning line-up this week because it was good enough to win multiple Fanduel GPP tournaments. Analyzing his winning line-up, we will deconstruct his roster build and use the lessons learned to build our own optimal line-up for week 10.

Winning lineup for Week 9 Fanduel $60K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • Russell Wilson and company were my top stack of the week for a reason last week and they did not disappoint. They over-matched a Buc’s defense that ranks 29th in YPG at 300.9 and has now given up 16 TD passes.
  • If I have to tell you to pay up front for CMC, you are doing DFS wrong.
  • Melvin Gordon is back! 20 carries that led to 2 TDs. His price will be adjusted accordingly moving forward, so you will pay to play in the weeks to come.
  • Establish the Pass! Lockett, Metcalf and Marvin Jones Jr. all played in game that feature high implied team totals (Rotocurve) and bad pass defenses. It’s basically like printing money.
  • The best low cost, high value plays of week 9 included TE Noah Fant ($4,600) returned 4.1x the value. Preston Williams ($5,500) returned 3.9x the value. Melvin Gordon was the best RB value 3.9x at a cost ($6,300) with a value of 5.7x.

NFL Week 10 Implied Team Totals (Rotocurve)

This week, I will be highlighting another step in my process of building the core of my DFS line-ups. One of the tools that I couldn’t live without each week, is the NFL implied team total by Rotocurve. I use this tool to identify which teams are expected (by Vegas) to score the most points, and then I identify players who are expected to be featured prominently by their teams offense and work them into my lineups.

( https://rotocurve.com/ )

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Drew
Brees
$8,300
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,000
Jameis
Winston
$8,000
Kyler
Murray
$7,700
Matt
Ryan
$7,500


WR
Michael
Thomas
$8,700

Ted
Ginn Jr.
$5,300
DeVante
Adams
$7,800

*Aaron
Jones
$7,600
Mike
Evans
$8,600

Chris
Godwin
$8,200
Christian
Kirk
$5,700 

Larry
Fitzgerald
$5,400
Julio
Jones
$7,900

Calvin
Ridley
$5,300

*QB/RB stack

High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Lamar
Jackson
$8,600
Patrick
Mahomes
$8,400
Drew
Brees
$8,000
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,000
Jameis
Winston
$7,900

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$10,500
Mark
Ingram II
$8,000
Aaron
Jones
$7,600
Todd 
Gurley
$7,200
Derrick
Henry
$7,000

WR
Michael
Thomas
$8,700
Mike
Evans 
$8,600
Cooper 
Kupp
$8,100
Tyreek
Hill
$8,000
Julio
Jones
$7,900

TE
Travis
Kelce
$6,700
Austin 
Hooper
$6,600
Jared
Cook
$5,800


DST
Baltimore
Ravens 
$5,000
LA
Rams
$4,600




Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Ryan
Tannehill
$7,500
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$7,100
Brian
Hoyer
$7,100 

RB
Devin
Singletary
$6,700
David
Montgomery
$6,400
Damien
 Williams
$5,300

WR
Robert
Woods
$6,900
Zach
Pascal
$6,400
Golden
Tate
$6,300

WR
John 
Brown
$5,800
DeVante
Parker
$5,800
Christian
Kirk 
$5,700

TE
Gerald
Everett 
$5,700
Vance
McDonald
$5,600
Mike
Gesicki
$5,100 
DSTKansas City
Chiefs
$3,700

New Feature: This week I introduce my weekly best line-up. This is the line-up that I will be playing in single entry tournaments and all of the smaller GPP tournaments as well.

Weekly Best Lineup

POS Player Name Price
QBDrew Brees$8,300
RBTodd Gurley$7,200
RBMark Ingram II$8,000
WRMichael Thomas$8,700
WRZach Pascal $6,400
WRTed Ginn$5,300
TEAustin Hooper$6,600
FLXChristian Kirk$5,700
DSTKC Chiefs$3,700

I wish you all the best in week 10!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Make sure to check out the work of Adam Pfeifer and the great team at Rotocurce.

Adam Pfeifer@APfeifer24I write about fantasy sports more than anyone should. Marvin Jones and Tre White. Forever. DFS writer @RotoCurve. Also dabble @4for4football & @Awesemo_ComRotoCurverotocurve.com

Let There Be Winners!

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol. 1 Issue 3

November is upon us and that means, incredibly, half of the NFL regular season is already in the books. When it kicked off nine weeks ago, who predicted the NFL szn would be swept up in Minshew Mania, that Darren Waller would be the TE1 or we would be looking at Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin at WR2 and WR3 overall? I am sure everyone in New England could have told us that their DST would be the ranked 6th most fantasy points in PPR (Fantasy Pros). What a great time to be alive and paying DFS! Today I am examining three winning Fanduel tournament lineups from week 8. I will analyze what the winners did well and use those insights to help construct a winning lineup for week 9. I’m not doing it along. Each week I will introduce you to part of my process and highlight what I have learned from fantasy footballs’ best and brightest analytical minds along the way. A must read for me each week are the Rotoworld NFL WEEK 9 INJURY DASHBOARD and the Rotoworld NFL WEEK 9 WR/CB MATCHUPS AND TE ANALYSIS, both written by the incomparable Ian Hartitz. These tools help me to determine who is playing and who they will be matched up with in coverage each week. So lets begin with what we can learn from the winners.

Winning lineup for Week 8 Fanduel $17K Sun NFL Pooch Punt ($0.5 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 8 Fanduel $75K Sun NFL Pooch Punt ($0.25 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for Week 8 Fanduel $2.5M Sun NFL Pooch Punt ($9 to enter) contest.

Analyzing the Weekly Winners

  • The entry $17K scored the most points (235.02) out the three winner and featured a quarterback/running back/wide receiver stack of Brees/Murray/Thomas. The target share for Michael Thomas is a league leading 32.5%. Combine that with Latavius Murray’s 9 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets and you get 20 out of 34 (59%) receptions being funneled Thomas and Murray’s way.
  • All three winners featured Murray ( week 8 NwN play), Mike Evans and week 8 super stud Tevin Coleman. If you didn’t have this combination you didn’t win. Coleman was lighting in a bottle, but both Murray and Evans were heavily featured in games that were predicted to be high scoring.
  • You had to pay up front to grab New England’s DST, but the return on investment yielded a weekly winner with a return of 4.2x the value.
  • All three lineups included players who featured prominently in a high scoring shout outs or one-sided beat downs with high implied team totals (Rotocurve). The Saints (30.5) and the Rams (30.25) had the two highest implied team totals of week 8. Cooper Kupp accounted for 59% of the receiving yards in the game and added a touchdown. Looking at the implied team total isn’t a perfect predictor of who will score the points, but it can point you in the direction of players who might be featured prominently and have week winning potential.
  • The best low cost, high value plays of week 8 included Tevin Coleman ($6,200) returned 5.9x the value. Mike Evans ($7,400) returned 5.0x the value. Ryan Griffin ($4,000) led all TE with a value of 5.7x.

From what I learned in week 8, here are the factors that I am taking into consideration when targeting my players for inclusion in my lineups (all prices are from Fanduel).

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups


QB
Russell
Wilson
$8,600
Matthew
Stafford
$7,900
Dak
Prescott
$7,800
Derek
Carr
$7,300


WR
Tyler
Lockett
$7,500

DK
Metcalf
$6,700
Kenny
Golladay
$7,600

Danny
Amendola
$6,000

Marvin
Jones
$5,700
Amari
Cooper
$8,000

Michael
Gallup
$6,600
Tyrell
Williams
$6,300

Hunter
Renfrow
$5,400

QB/RB stacks with favorable match-ups.

QBAaron
Rodgers
$8,100
Kirk
Cousins
$7,800
Sam
Darnold
$7,300
Phillip
Rivers
$7,200

RB
Aaron
Jones
$7,700
Dalvin
Cook
$9,000
Le’veon
Bell
$7,000
Austin
Ekeler
$6,500

Injury/Opportunity Bump   


RB
Mark
Walton
$5,700
Adrian
Peterson
$5,700
Alexander
Mattison
$5,400
Jaylen
Samuels
$5,000
*Rex
Burkhead
$5,000

WR
Alshon
Jeffery
$6,600
Mike 
Williams
$5,700
Kenny 
Stills 
$5,500
DJ
Moore
$5,400
Daesean
Hamilton
$4,800

*Monitor Sunday to determine if James White is active.

High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Russell
Wilson
$8,600
*Patrick
Mahomes
$8,500
Aaron
Rodgers
$8,000
Lamar
Jackson
$8,000
Matt
Stafford
$7,900

RB
Christian
McCaffery
$9,700
Dalvin
Cook
$9,000
Aaron
Jones
$7,700
Josh
Jacobs
$7,200
Le’veon
Bell
$7,000

WR
Chris 
Godwin
$8,100
Amari
Cooper
$8,000
Tyreek
Hill
$7,700
Kenny
Golladay
$7,700
Tyler
Lockett
$7,500 

TE
Darren
Waller
$6,800
Hunter
Henry
$6,400
Evan
Engram
$6,300
Zach
Ertz
$6,000


DST
Buffalo
Bills
$5,000
Seattle
Seahawks
$4,900




Mid to Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB
Sam
Darnold
$7,300
Derek
Carr
$7,300
Ryan
Fitzpatrick
$8,000
Matt
Moore 
$6,500
Mitch
Trubisky
$6,500

RB
Derrick
Henry
$6,800
David
Montgomery
$6,600
Austin
Ekeler
$6,500
Jordan
Howard
$6,300
Frank
Gore
$6,200

WR
DK
Metcalf
$6,700
Michael
Gallup
$6,600
Tyrell
Williams
$6,300
Robby
Anderson
$6,200
Corey
Davis
$5,300 

TE
Jonnu
Smith
$5,500
Vance
McDonald
$5,300
Eric
Ebron
$5,200
TJ
Hockenson
$5,000
Ryan
Griffin
$5,000

DST
Cleveland
Browns 
$4,300
Pittsburgh
Steelers
$3,900




I wish you all the best in week 9!

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. Most of the heavy lifting this week came from Ian Hartitz from Rotoworld.

Ian Hartitz
@Ihartitz
NFL | @Rotoworld_FB
| President of the Cordarrelle Patterson fan club |
The most important play is the next one

TRUST THE PROCESS

(And Inspect the Receipts)

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol. 1 Issue 2

10/29/19

As one of my many unacknowledged mentors, (fingers crossed one day he’ll be my fantasy football friend), C.D. Carter always say, “TRUST THE PROCESS!” Since my process is just in its infancy, I find it more helpful to look at the receipts. Acknowledging and reflecting on your successes and failures is important in DFS because “the data” is all right there for you to collect and analyze. The ultimate goal being, the refinement and improvement of your process each week. Here are some of the featured players that hit last week and some that look like they came straight from Min Cash Pete’s x-rated DFS “First Look” whiteboard. (If you love DFS and fantasy football, do yourself a favor and subscribe to all of his content. You will thank me later.) So here is the good, the bad and the obvious.

Best Plays of Week 8

Position Player Points Value 
QBDeShaun Watson27.763.3x
RBLatavius Murray32.25.2x
WRCooper Kupp31.54.1x
TEDarren Fells20.84.1x
DSTPatriots 214.2x

Stacking Watson and Fells was a strong play and one that I sadly only featured on a handful of my DFS entries. Like most lineups on Fanduel, the majority of my stacks had Kenny Stills (68% owned of course) and DeAndre Hopkins (9.24% owned) so there’s that. Everyone owned Latavius Murray. Liken him to the bouncer at the club. He got you in the door, but he let everyone else in as well. You still needed a super Cooper Kupp who was otherworldly and caught 220 out of the 372 passing yards that Jared Goff threw for on the afternoon. Graham Barfield from YardsCreated.com tweeted out on Monday, only Christian McCaffery, Dalvin Cook, DeShaun Watson, Michael Thomas, Lamar Jackson, Austin Ekeler and Arron Jones have out scored the Patriots DST this season. They have 169.0 points through 8 games. Pick against them at your own peril.

Worst Plays of Week 8

Position Player Points Value 
QBRussell Wilson15.681.8x
RBTy Johnson4.30.8x
WRKenny Stills3.70.6x
TEHunter Henry 6.71.0x
DSTCarolina 30.9x

And now the underperformers of the week that sunk any chances we had of grasping DFS glory. This will not be the first time you hear an DFS analyst criticize an NFL head coach (Note to self: That gives me an idea for a new weekly feature. Critical Coaching Collapses with Pete Carroll. Wait, that’s too much alliteration for fantasy football, I’ll table it.). Russell Wilson threw the ball 20 times. In the WHOLE GAME! I mean, it wasn’t the Super Bowl or anything Pete. Moving on, Ty Johnson didn’t even start the game, thanks for playing. Kenny Stills is not Will Fuller. It’s about reps and chemistry for Stills. His day will come later in the season. Don’t sleep on him like he put your cash lineup to sleep. Huntery (Hunter + Henry) had the Bears Linebackers to deal with and Keenan Allen’s presence made him a non-factor. Speaking of Carolina’s DST, I think that Tevin Coleman just scored another touchdown. The 49ers are legit. Establish the Run is real!

Top performers at each position for week 8 (w/value) on Fanduel.

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Flex

Defense and Special Teams

Perfect Lineup

One of my big takeaways is that, if you have the chalk, you better have the nuts too or your not going to win big. When Cooper Kupp and Latavius Murray are on all the winning teams, you have to back it up with a breakouts like Tevin Coleman. Shout out to Ian Hartitz (Rotoworld) who accurately predicted at least two of those touchdowns. I still believe in the importance of stacking, but it is all about the right match-up. Some of the best stacks this week were QB/RB and QB/TE. So excited to have, what all DFS players should refer to moving forward as, the “Aaron Stack” back in the Sunday main card mix. It is good to see Mike Evans is still alive. He was on all of my winning teams. Thanks for the $7.46 my man!

I’ll be back later in the week to breakdown winning Fanduel lineups from week 8 in order to help us determine what we can learn and apply to our roster construction for week 9 of DFS.

Until then, may the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Each week I will be highlighting my favorite fantasy football analysts. This week’s spotlight is on Pete Overzet (Rotogrinders) and Evan Silva (Establish the Run). Give them a follow on Twitter and checkout all of their quality fantasy football content.

Bubble Boy Pete
@peteroverzet

vids/swolecast @rotogrinders • fantasy mensa & ‘ship chasing
@4for4football • paperweight salesman
@petemanzinelli http://greatfitpatriots.com • consheepsus member
Boston, MAyoutube.com/PeterOverzet

Evan Silva
@evansilva
dad to the cutest little girl co-founder,
http://EstablishTheRun.com
@EstablishTheRun

Chicago, IL
establishtherun.com

Nimble w/Numbers

Vol.1 Issue 1 

10/25/2019

A Shot in the Dark – NFL DFS Winners for Week 8 (and Origin Stories)

I love football. To be more precise, I love fantasy football. To be exact, I love daily fantasy football. But it wasn’t always this way. I’ve dabbled with DFS over the last few years, but until this year my first fantasy love has always centered around my home league redraft teams. For this story, it might help if I just started at the beginning. I have been an NFL fan since I was 4 years old. My grandmother, who we lived with growing up, was a die-hard Raiders fan and introduced me to the beautiful violence just in time for her Raiders to steam role the hometown Redskins in Super Bowl XVIII. How she came to claim the silver and black in a sea of burgundy and gold, I will never know. I think she liked ass kickers. I, on the other hand, was fiercely loyal to my hometown and firmly entrenched myself as a Redskins fan. No, not those Redskins. The Joe Gibbs coaching, Darrell Green punt returning, Dexter Manley sacking, Alvin Walton spearing, Joe Jacoby mauling, Art Monk gracing, Gary Clark TD grabbing, Super Bowl Fucking Champion Washington Redskins!!!. May they rest in peace (double chest tap, point to the heavens and pour some out for all the good fans lost along the way).

Fast forward to my twenties,  my childhood football team is fading into obscurity thanks to boy wander and I was lost. I didn’t renew my season tickets and nothing mattered to me anymore. It was a bad time for the empire. I was just about to give up and become a college football fan (I had already started looking for face paint) when my brother-in-law reached out and invited me to try fantasy football with him. He explained that in fantasy football, we get to pick the players that we liked and thought were good, build our own teams. I was intrigued. Unfortunately, the first time I tried fantasy football, I didn’t feel anything at all. Other people said that I looked like I was feeling something, but I don’t think that I was. I was soooooo disappointed. I thought maybe that fantasy football wasn’t for me. Then some friends invited me over to a live home draft they were having. Everyone there was doing fantasy football and it looked so cool. The next thing I knew, it was in my hand and then I was doing it too, everyone cheering me on. This time, I felt it immediately. I couldn’t stop smiling and just kept saying  “Houshmandzadeh” over and over again for no reason. It was one of the greatest days of my life. I started fantasy footballing hardcore. By my second season, I was out of control. What had started as a casual, one team a season standard league side hobby (that I enjoyed recreationally a few times a week, in the comfort of my own home) had now somehow morphed into a three day online “auction style IDP league” that led to a daily addiction that was completely unsustainable. It was too fast, too soon. The league dissolved after one season and I was left to do some real soul searching. My thoughts were everywhere. “Do I really need IDP in my life? Are two QBs better than one? Was staying up for 72 hours to monitor the live auction related in anyway to the nervous ticks I developed and compulsions to start Steven Jackson all season (despite his abysmal yards per carry average)?” I quit cold turkey, for the whole offseason, and then I got back up on the horse and formed a new PPR league. Just one wouldn’t be that bad. I could manage it. And I did. It started off perfectly. I was constantly talking smack and starting arbitrary fights on our league message boards. I rallied the league to veto an obvious attempt at collusion and moved us from two WRs to three. I pulled off the greatest most devastating fantasy football draft day prank ever (story to come, for sure). Hell, Matthew Berry and I even ended up exchanging tweets about the blowup doll that my fantasy football league used as our championship trophy (shout out to “The Ballers League” you are all savages, except for you Vince, you are still you). I sent him a photo of the blowup doll and he asked if her could use the story in his book. I was on fantasy cloud nine. Nothing was going to stop me.   

Ten years later and so much has changed. The blowup doll popped without me. In the end, she never made it over to my place. The fantasy football landscape looks a lot different as well. While I spent the last decade consistently falling short of fantasy glory, fantasy football itself had become a multi-billion dollar industry, with the surge in dynasty leagues and the introduction of DFS helping to forge a year long fantasy football season. I ate it all up. My research for my redraft leagues now begins every year on January 1st and runs until late December 31st (I’m great at holiday parties if you want to talk about all the misconceptions surrounding Zero RB). Once my redrafts are completed in early September though, all the research, obsessions with podcasts, player projections, target share data, 1st down run percentage tendencies, it all has to go somewhere. So I decided to put all the time spent to good use and focus my efforts on DFS this season. No better way to jump write in, than to launch a weekly DFS winners article that no one asked for (Yes, I know. It’s a pun. Yes. That’s where we are at right now. Sorry. It will happen again.).  

I turned 40 this past April and it led me to reflect on what was important to me in my life and besides the obvious, (incredible wife, two beautiful daughters, my parents, amazing friends) I realized that fantasy football was at the top of the list of what matters most to me. More importantly, it makes me happy. I made a promise to myself then that I was going to do more of what I love with the time that I have left. Fantasy football is what I love. This is my breakaway from the machine. You can fade me or roll with me. Either way, here’s my shot in the dark at fantasy football writing and picking weekly DFS winners. May the TDs be with us both, but mostly with me.  

Constructing the Perfect Lineup(s) for Tournament Play (multi-entry)

There are a lot of considerations that go into constructing a potentially perfect lineup. One of the most important is the contest that you are entering. Context matters for lineup construction. If you are entering the millionaire maker, or large tournaments, you are going to approach the contest in a measured and strategic way. Carefully selecting only your very best players to your offer to the fantasy football gods for their humble consideration.

 When you enter smaller tournaments you have the opportunity to diversify your approach and expand your player pool to include more variance. It helps to establish a core of potential breakout players that you can build your team around each week. Once you have your core group, you can start to play around with slight variations that maximize your exposure to players that might not be included in a large percentage of the field. 

The focus of this article will be how to approach constructing your perfect lineup for multi-entry tournaments ranging from $0.05 to $1. These tournaments often feature an entry cap of 150 entries per contest. If you are starting off your DFS experience with less than $100, I encourage you to maximize your lineup exposure in these types of tournaments. My analysis will focus on the weekly winners from three Fanduel Week 7 contests. We will breakdown their lineups to see where they gained an edge over the field and determine what patterns led to their overall success.   

Winning lineup for Week 7 Fanduel $6K Sun NFL Pooch Punt ($0.5 to enter) contest.

Winning lineup for the Week 7 Fanduel $75K Sun NFL Hail Mary ($0.25 to enter) contest. 

Winning lineup for the Week 7 Fanduel $150K Sun NFL Dive ($1 entry) contest.

After analyzing these weekly winners, a number of observable roster construction strategies jumped out to me.

  • All three teams featured a QB/WR stack. Double points are double points.
  • The $6K winning roster included a QB/RB/WR stack which accounted for double points across multiple positions groups. 
  • The Raiders vs. Packers match-up from week 7 also featured a Raiders pass funnel defense for Aaron Rodgers and company to feast on. Opposing QBs are averaging a QB rating of 115.6 against the Raiders (For reference, Pat Mahomes has a QB rating of 113.1 and Russell Wilson comes in at 114.1). The Raiders also allowed QB’s a 67% completion rating and were in the top third of the NFL in passing TDs allowed. 
  • The $150K weekly winner exploited injuries to stars Alvin Kamara and David Johnson by featuring their backups, Latavius Murray ($5,300) and Chase Edmonds ($5,500). This allowed him to pay up for studs Dalvin Cook, DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones to bolster his lineup. 
  • Feature RBs against run funnel defenses. The Lions give up 4.9 yards per carry, 171.8 yards per game, 194.1 total fantasy points on the season and they are giving up an average 32.4 fantasy points a game to RBs. If you didn’t start Dalvin Cook last week, you only have yourself to blame. 
  • All three teams featured Darren “The Walrus” Waller and his 88% catch rate. Tyrell Williams was out during week 7, which meant that Waller was the number one target in a come from behind shootout loss in Green Bay. Look for skill positions that are enhanced by injuries at other positions when projecting a players value.
  • All three lineups included players who featured prominently in a high scoring games. Using the Vega weekly over/under lines can be useful in predicting increased opportunity for players who are seeking more touches or targets due to positive game flow in their direction. Find out what the team splits are for the game.  
  • Identify undervalued players whose low costs creates the potential for them to well outperform their price tag. Marvin Jones ($5,600) returned 6.8x his value. Austin Ekeler ($6,900) returned 3.2x his value. Darren Waller ($6,200) led all TE with a value of 4.5x his price.  

From what I learned in week 7, here are the factors that I am taking into consideration when targeting my players for inclusion in my lineups (all prices are from Fanduel).

QB/WR Stacks with favorable match-ups 


QB
Russell
Wilson
$8,600
DeShaun
Watson
$8,400
Jared 
Goff
$8,000
Matt
Stafford
$7,700 
Ryan
Tannehill
$6,900


WR
Tyler
Lockett
$7,200

DK
MetCalf
$6,600
DeAndre
Hopkins
$8,200

Kenny
Stills
$5,700
Cooper
Kupp
$7,700

Robert
Woods
$7,000

Brandon
Cooks
$6,900
Kenny
Golladay
$6,700 

Marvin
Jones
$6,300

Corey
Davis
$5,500

AJ
Brown
$5,500

*Bonus play QB/RB stack:Tom Brady ($7,900) and James White ($6,000) 

 Injury/Opportunity Bump   


RB
Latavius
Murray
$6,200
Chase 
Edmonds
$6,100 
Ty
Johnson
$5,200
Jalen 
Richard
$5,000
DeAndre 
Washington
$4,500

WR
Golden
Tate
$6,100
Kenny 
Stills 
$5,700
Mike 
Williams
$5,700
Phillip 
Dorsett 
$5,600
Calvin 
Ridley
$5,400

*If Keenan Allen is out on Sunday, Hunter Henry is a steal at $6,700.

High Cost players value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB

Russell
Wilson
$8,600

DeShaun
Watson
$8,400
Jared
Goff
$8,000
Matthew
Stafford 
$7,700
Josh 
Allen 
$7,700

RB
Saquon
Barkley
$8,600
Chris 
Carson
$8,000
Leonard
Fournette
$7,700
Todd 
Gurley
$7,400
Austin
Ekeler
$6,800

WR
Michael
Thomas
$8,500
DeAndre
Hopkins 
$8,200
Chris 
Godwin
$8,100
Cooper 
Kupp
$7,700

Tyler
Lockett
$7,200
 

TE
Darren
Waller
$6,800
Hunter
Henry
$6,700
Austin 
Hooper
$6,600
Evan
Engram
$6,300


DST
LA
Rams 
$5,000
New
England
Patriots
$5,000




Low cost/high value plays based on match-up, opportunity and breakout potential. 


QB

Teddy 
Bridgewater
$7,500

Kyler
Murray 
$7,400
Ryan
Tannehill
$6,900 

RB
DeVanta 
Freeman
$6,200
James 
White
$6,000
Duke
 Johnson
$5,300

WR
DK 
Metcalf 
$6,600
Julian
Edelman
$6,600
Marvin 
Jones
$6,300

WR
John 
Brown
$5,900
Mike 
Williams
$5,700
Larry 
Fitzgerald 
$5,400

TE
Gerald
Everett 
$6,100
Cameron 
Brate
$5,200
Darren 
Fells
$5,100 
DSTBuffalo
Bills
$4,300
Carolina
Panthers
$3,500

In closing, I would be remiss if I did not acknowledge that there are so many outstanding fantasy football analysists currently producing outstanding daily and weekly content for DFF and redraft leagues. I am grasping at the coattails of true giants in the fantasy football industry and have been inspired to do this because of them. Fantasy pioneers like Dave Richard, JJ Zacherisen, C.D. Carter, Min Cash Pete, Scott Fish, The Football Guys, Brad Evans, Pat D, Pat Thorman, LordReebs,  Matt Harmon, Tags and Bobby, the Footballers (not JayGriz, his takes are static), Ian Hartiz, Matt Walden, The Great Sigmund Bloom, Warren Sharp, Scott Barrett and the list has so many more people on it! These are the brilliant football minds that I follow/stalk/idolize on my fantasy twitter each day (sorry for all the fanboying and GIFs gentlemen). They are all my true heroes! 

May the fantasy gods be with us all! 

Nimble w/Numbers

Twitter: @NimblewNumbers